{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:43:20+09:00","asset":{"id":"fut_cotton","name":"綿花（先物）","category":"食品・農林水産","unit":"US cents/lb","currency":"USD","frequency":"daily","max_age_days":7,"basis":"Yahoo Finance continuous front futures: CT=F","profile":"food","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CT=F/","note":"既存kabufu取得DBの期近つなぎ先物終値。現物価格・2036年限月の先物価格ではない。限月交代・ベーシス・調達条件で差が出る。負値は別途検証対象。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"fut_cotton","period":"2026-10-30","period_end":"2026-10-30","value":77.830002,"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T15:13:06+00:00","source":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CT=F/","source_hash":"db301b1048bccc6f219c7f4bd66e1fb6cb501ad77483660a2dfb86b2072e9751"},"age_days":4,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"fut_cotton@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"fut_cotton","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":73.32426243852458,"reference_period":"2026-10-23","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"bfcf6bc233cc5a58db97e0a55fb7dc6fde6d45d6f37604e2d6f7dd6dc64fd322","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:35+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"fut_cotton@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":69.00641662537221,"real_growth":-0.035,"nominal_growth":-0.00605,"explanation":"豊作と生産性改善が継続","change_from_current":-0.11336997491825562,"annual_from_current":-0.011988376662324218,"jpy_target":103.50962493805832,"cpi_only_target_price":98.54566474536153,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2997518784445534,"real_jpy_target":77.01776555552316},{"forecast_id":"fut_cotton@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":84.72095508678207,"real_growth":-0.015,"nominal_growth":0.014550000000000063,"explanation":"収量改善が需要増を上回る","change_from_current":0.08853851869080098,"annual_from_current":0.008539644152480985,"jpy_target":127.0814326301731,"cpi_only_target_price":98.54566474536153,"relative_to_cpi":-0.14028734490047856,"real_jpy_target":94.55669451635713},{"forecast_id":"fut_cotton@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":98.54566474536153,"real_growth":0,"nominal_growth":0.030000000000000027,"explanation":"生産性と人口需要が均衡","change_from_current":0.26616551732019156,"annual_from_current":0.02393633653489524,"jpy_target":147.8184971180423,"cpi_only_target_price":98.54566474536153,"relative_to_cpi":0,"real_jpy_target":109.98639365778688},{"forecast_id":"fut_cotton@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":126.15104646714411,"real_growth":0.025,"nominal_growth":0.055749999999999966,"explanation":"気候・肥料コストが上昇","change_from_current":0.6208536968448763,"annual_from_current":0.049598753978486565,"jpy_target":189.2265697007162,"cpi_only_target_price":98.54566474536153,"relative_to_cpi":0.28012781478631155,"real_jpy_target":140.79664176936976},{"forecast_id":"fut_cotton@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":168.34256906242675,"real_growth":0.055,"nominal_growth":0.0866499999999999,"explanation":"不作・輸出制約・物流費が重なる","change_from_current":1.1629521358926183,"annual_from_current":0.08039569248277689,"jpy_target":252.51385359364014,"cpi_only_target_price":98.54566474536153,"relative_to_cpi":0.7082696585123041,"real_jpy_target":187.88641913478745}],"expected_price":105.32756477770975,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"収量改善・代替・作付け増が価格を抑え、気候・水・肥料・物流制約が押し上げる。農産物価格は加工食品の店頭価格や食品会社の原価そのものではない。","sources":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-11","value":96.32809528571428},{"period":"2011-12","value":89.06428561904761},{"period":"2012-01","value":96.4655002},{"period":"2012-02","value":91.93349959999999},{"period":"2012-03","value":89.89772727272727},{"period":"2012-04","value":90.28700065000001},{"period":"2012-05","value":79.10000063636363},{"period":"2012-06","value":74.29619004761905},{"period":"2012-07","value":70.95142871428571},{"period":"2012-08","value":74.08869608695652},{"period":"2012-09","value":73.27947315789474},{"period":"2012-10","value":72.59952361904762},{"period":"2012-11","value":71.16333366666666},{"period":"2012-12","value":74.7475003},{"period":"2013-01","value":78.13333347619047},{"period":"2013-02","value":81.78473668421053},{"period":"2013-03","value":87.91799999999999},{"period":"2013-04","value":84.83363718181818},{"period":"2013-05","value":84.19772654545454},{"period":"2013-06","value":85.671},{"period":"2013-07","value":85.118182},{"period":"2013-08","value":87.37272681818182},{"period":"2013-09","value":84.31750029999999},{"period":"2013-10","value":82.12826078260869},{"period":"2013-11","value":76.6609996},{"period":"2013-12","value":81.77428552380952},{"period":"2014-01","value":85.02523790476191},{"period":"2014-02","value":86.87473742105263},{"period":"2014-03","value":91.60333304761905},{"period":"2014-04","value":91.42285776190477},{"period":"2014-05","value":90.03476219047619},{"period":"2014-06","value":85.53047738095238},{"period":"2014-07","value":69.4377275},{"period":"2014-08","value":64.99714271428572},{"period":"2014-09","value":66.11714257142857},{"period":"2014-10","value":63.902174173913046},{"period":"2014-11","value":61.131052315789475},{"period":"2014-12","value":60.8636364090909},{"period":"2015-01","value":59.322499949999994},{"period":"2015-02","value":63.18000005263158},{"period":"2015-03","value":62.51318190909091},{"period":"2015-04","value":65.02142857142857},{"period":"2015-05","value":65.13052568421053},{"period":"2015-06","value":64.554546},{"period":"2015-07","value":65.30136327272727},{"period":"2015-08","value":65.14238176190477},{"period":"2015-09","value":61.55809514285714},{"period":"2015-10","value":62.363181772727266},{"period":"2015-11","value":61.70100025000001},{"period":"2015-12","value":63.22636386363636},{"period":"2016-01","value":61.78947410526316},{"period":"2016-02","value":59.4004995},{"period":"2016-03","value":57.98409081818182},{"period":"2016-04","value":61.63761876190477},{"period":"2016-05","value":62.138571523809524},{"period":"2016-06","value":64.05318136363637},{"period":"2016-07","value":70.57799935},{"period":"2016-08","value":70.13173878260869},{"period":"2016-09","value":68.82809485714286},{"period":"2016-10","value":69.29000015},{"period":"2016-11","value":70.88749924999999},{"period":"2016-12","value":70.97476195238094},{"period":"2017-01","value":73.39299955},{"period":"2017-02","value":75.40315810526316},{"period":"2017-03","value":77.16130426086957},{"period":"2017-04","value":77.12052673684211},{"period":"2017-05","value":79.17090913636365},{"period":"2017-06","value":74.129091},{"period":"2017-07","value":69.96200065000001},{"period":"2017-08","value":69.89956530434783},{"period":"2017-09","value":71.1994998},{"period":"2017-10","value":68.49863572727273},{"period":"2017-11","value":70.29238095238095},{"period":"2017-12","value":75.7694999},{"period":"2018-01","value":80.28238095238096},{"period":"2018-02","value":77.93421089473685},{"period":"2018-03","value":82.92095223809524},{"period":"2018-04","value":83.23238152380952},{"period":"2018-05","value":86.77181763636364},{"period":"2018-06","value":89.15619033333334},{"period":"2018-07","value":87.71666652380952},{"period":"2018-08","value":84.51260839130435},{"period":"2018-09","value":80.67894789473685},{"period":"2018-10","value":77.58652169565217},{"period":"2018-11","value":77.11857133333334},{"period":"2018-12","value":76.77105231578948},{"period":"2019-01","value":73.07809414285714},{"period":"2019-02","value":71.56789515789474},{"period":"2019-03","value":75.0661908095238},{"period":"2019-04","value":77.24666671428571},{"period":"2019-05","value":69.343182},{"period":"2019-06","value":65.35749955},{"period":"2019-07","value":62.923181863636366},{"period":"2019-08","value":58.97227268181818},{"period":"2019-09","value":59.66600025},{"period":"2019-10","value":63.14695660869565},{"period":"2019-11","value":64.0445004},{"period":"2019-12","value":66.6199991904762},{"period":"2020-01","value":70.06095204761905},{"period":"2020-02","value":67.11315889473684},{"period":"2020-03","value":57.57363631818182},{"period":"2020-04","value":53.74952380952381},{"period":"2020-05","value":57.15500005},{"period":"2020-06","value":60.80590895454545},{"period":"2020-07","value":62.558181999999995},{"period":"2020-08","value":63.550953285714286},{"period":"2020-09","value":64.20333371428572},{"period":"2020-10","value":68.832273},{"period":"2020-11","value":69.9635002},{"period":"2020-12","value":74.25863640909091},{"period":"2021-01","value":80.84894642105263},{"period":"2021-02","value":86.48000026315789},{"period":"2021-03","value":84.81608639130435},{"period":"2021-04","value":83.67857109523808},{"period":"2021-05","value":84.8455009},{"period":"2021-06","value":85.32136331818182},{"period":"2021-07","value":88.7838088095238},{"period":"2021-08","value":93.64454518181819},{"period":"2021-09","value":95.74762004761905},{"period":"2021-10","value":109.16904766666667},{"period":"2021-11","value":117.88285714285715},{"period":"2021-12","value":109.26090936363636},{"period":"2022-01","value":119.31999965},{"period":"2022-02","value":124.30000078947369},{"period":"2022-03","value":126.46565117391305},{"period":"2022-04","value":140.4080002},{"period":"2022-05","value":146.17190480952382},{"period":"2022-06","value":132.14904685714288},{"period":"2022-07","value":99.27300065},{"period":"2022-08","value":112.46739230434783},{"period":"2022-09","value":100.70428542857144},{"period":"2022-10","value":83.06809561904763},{"period":"2022-11","value":84.39761890476191},{"period":"2022-12","value":83.50142842857143},{"period":"2023-01","value":84.75650015},{"period":"2023-02","value":84.07684205263159},{"period":"2023-03","value":80.86782643478261},{"period":"2023-04","value":81.07631563157895},{"period":"2023-05","value":82.23090913636364},{"period":"2023-06","value":82.01428552380952},{"period":"2023-07","value":84.29750025},{"period":"2023-08","value":86.32260804347825},{"period":"2023-09","value":86.40500075},{"period":"2023-10","value":84.79227236363637},{"period":"2023-11","value":78.37636381818182},{"period":"2023-12","value":80.08599955},{"period":"2024-01","value":82.56381004761904},{"period":"2024-02","value":92.82199975},{"period":"2024-03","value":94.5909996},{"period":"2024-04","value":83.0540914090909},{"period":"2024-05","value":77.67681713636364},{"period":"2024-06","value":71.96736815789474},{"period":"2024-07","value":68.76227336363637},{"period":"2024-08","value":68.05272663636364},{"period":"2024-09","value":70.8765},{"period":"2024-10","value":71.64913091304348},{"period":"2024-11","value":70.0275005},{"period":"2024-12","value":69.76047623809524},{"period":"2025-01","value":67.49238147619047},{"period":"2025-02","value":66.25000063157894},{"period":"2025-03","value":65.63190533333334},{"period":"2025-04","value":66.20142833333333},{"period":"2025-05","value":66.71095233333332},{"period":"2025-06","value":65.60900000000001},{"period":"2025-07","value":66.35217426086956},{"period":"2025-08","value":65.77809466666666},{"period":"2025-09","value":64.69333395238095},{"period":"2025-10","value":63.802609086956515},{"period":"2025-11","value":63.208420999999994},{"period":"2025-12","value":63.51590904545455},{"period":"2026-01","value":64.25500035},{"period":"2026-02","value":62.41684236842105},{"period":"2026-03","value":66.45454540909091},{"period":"2026-04","value":76.609375125},{"period":"2026-05","value":81.5735005},{"period":"2026-06","value":75.86571495238096},{"period":"2026-07","value":79.88136322727273},{"period":"2026-08","value":85.97578994736843},{"period":"2026-09","value":84.0566660952381},{"period":"2026-10","value":79.75227318181818}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}