{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:08:29+09:00","asset":{"id":"fut_gold","name":"金（先物）","category":"金属・鉱物","unit":"USD/troy oz","currency":"USD","frequency":"daily","max_age_days":7,"basis":"Yahoo Finance continuous front futures: GC=F","profile":"precious","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F/","note":"既存kabufu取得DBの期近つなぎ先物終値。現物価格・2036年限月の先物価格ではない。限月交代・ベーシス・調達条件で差が出る。負値は別途検証対象。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"fut_gold","period":"2026-10-30","period_end":"2026-10-30","value":3898.899902,"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T14:13:02+00:00","source":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F/","source_hash":"c9996558455e4d403d5765d12cc81e2acd64588e109b6ab878833eb504d0095d"},"age_days":4,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"fut_gold@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"fut_gold","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":4454.224502027238,"reference_period":"2026-10-23","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"dd4fb8355d4cdbaaa8f849be0db69e130322cf1841a265f844ef171aa8fb18f5","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:34+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"fut_gold@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":3583.995708808457,"real_growth":-0.05,"nominal_growth":-0.021500000000000075,"explanation":"実質金利上昇と安全資産需要減","change_from_current":-0.08076744751256837,"annual_from_current":-0.008405730799391886,"jpy_target":537599.3563212686,"cpi_only_target_price":5986.347490987233,"relative_to_cpi":-0.4013051006136288,"real_jpy_target":400008.22351282596},{"forecast_id":"fut_gold@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":4891.146476052269,"real_growth":-0.02,"nominal_growth":0.009400000000000075,"explanation":"投資需要正常化","change_from_current":0.25449398522472455,"annual_from_current":0.022986322443483198,"jpy_target":733671.9714078403,"cpi_only_target_price":5986.347490987233,"relative_to_cpi":-0.1829497897647686,"real_jpy_target":545898.759872441},{"forecast_id":"fut_gold@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":5986.347490987233,"real_growth":0,"nominal_growth":0.030000000000000027,"explanation":"実質価値を概ね維持","change_from_current":0.5353939935509615,"annual_from_current":0.043915681204775625,"jpy_target":897952.1236480849,"cpi_only_target_price":5986.347490987233,"relative_to_cpi":0,"real_jpy_target":668133.6753040856},{"forecast_id":"fut_gold@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":8045.47598948796,"real_growth":0.03,"nominal_growth":0.060899999999999954,"explanation":"通貨分散と産業需要増","change_from_current":1.0635246330281296,"annual_from_current":0.07531165160753561,"jpy_target":1206821.398423194,"cpi_only_target_price":5986.347490987233,"relative_to_cpi":0.34397076040120544,"real_jpy_target":897952.123648084},{"forecast_id":"fut_gold@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":11238.165931275109,"real_growth":0.065,"nominal_growth":0.09694999999999987,"explanation":"金融不安と供給制約が重なる","change_from_current":1.882394063389604,"annual_from_current":0.11194313422392965,"jpy_target":1685724.8896912662,"cpi_only_target_price":5986.347490987233,"relative_to_cpi":0.8772992961392185,"real_jpy_target":1254286.878375269}],"expected_price":6464.079653511295,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"実質金利・通貨への信認・中央銀行保有・産業需要で変動する。現在の高値を永久成長と見なさず、需給と金融環境が異なる5つの仮説を置く。","sources":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-11","value":1742.5904830952381},{"period":"2011-12","value":1641.9666747142858},{"period":"2012-01","value":1660.1950012000002},{"period":"2012-02","value":1743.8350159000001},{"period":"2012-03","value":1675.6590964545453},{"period":"2012-04","value":1650.5850037},{"period":"2012-05","value":1588.2818105},{"period":"2012-06","value":1600.6904645714285},{"period":"2012-07","value":1592.519042952381},{"period":"2012-08","value":1629.9173902173911},{"period":"2012-09","value":1748.8052594210526},{"period":"2012-10","value":1747.7285738095238},{"period":"2012-11","value":1721.3190452857143},{"period":"2012-12","value":1684.38000495},{"period":"2013-01","value":1670.447625952381},{"period":"2013-02","value":1627.4684029473685},{"period":"2013-03","value":1591.50500505},{"period":"2013-04","value":1484.6272805454546},{"period":"2013-05","value":1416.618191909091},{"period":"2013-06","value":1342.1350037500001},{"period":"2013-07","value":1285.8045542727273},{"period":"2013-08","value":1352.6681574545455},{"period":"2013-09","value":1345.98500965},{"period":"2013-10","value":1316.8347750869566},{"period":"2013-11","value":1275.1049988},{"period":"2013-12","value":1225.0095157142857},{"period":"2014-01","value":1244.0619012857144},{"period":"2014-02","value":1300.9842144210527},{"period":"2014-03","value":1336.4285713333334},{"period":"2014-04","value":1298.4237932380954},{"period":"2014-05","value":1287.5380976666665},{"period":"2014-06","value":1282.1619000952383},{"period":"2014-07","value":1310.6363636363637},{"period":"2014-08","value":1295.0571463333333},{"period":"2014-09","value":1235.128569095238},{"period":"2014-10","value":1222.930425347826},{"period":"2014-11","value":1176.178942263158},{"period":"2014-12","value":1200.1681739545454},{"period":"2015-01","value":1252.9249938},{"period":"2015-02","value":1224.9105225263158},{"period":"2015-03","value":1177.7681830454546},{"period":"2015-04","value":1199.8285784285715},{"period":"2015-05","value":1198.2150084500001},{"period":"2015-06","value":1180.7818215},{"period":"2015-07","value":1128.1136418181818},{"period":"2015-08","value":1118.7333112857143},{"period":"2015-09","value":1123.8238002857142},{"period":"2015-10","value":1159.8590921363636},{"period":"2015-11","value":1084.00500485},{"period":"2015-12","value":1069.9454567272728},{"period":"2016-01","value":1097.642096263158},{"period":"2016-02","value":1201.4050048499998},{"period":"2016-03","value":1244.881819227273},{"period":"2016-04","value":1242.5380800476191},{"period":"2016-05","value":1259.5904772857143},{"period":"2016-06","value":1276.7454611818182},{"period":"2016-07","value":1337.2100037},{"period":"2016-08","value":1337.9565269565217},{"period":"2016-09","value":1325.114286809524},{"period":"2016-10","value":1263.98001095},{"period":"2016-11","value":1235.9600037},{"period":"2016-12","value":1151.3952520476191},{"period":"2017-01","value":1193.19000855},{"period":"2017-02","value":1234.5420949473685},{"period":"2017-03","value":1230.378269304348},{"period":"2017-04","value":1268.6526392631579},{"period":"2017-05","value":1243.7636386363636},{"period":"2017-06","value":1260.0590931363638},{"period":"2017-07","value":1235.9599976499999},{"period":"2017-08","value":1283.795643652174},{"period":"2017-09","value":1313.9400024000001},{"period":"2017-10","value":1279.2500055},{"period":"2017-11","value":1280.6904704285714},{"period":"2017-12","value":1265.5700074000001},{"period":"2018-01","value":1330.67499985},{"period":"2018-02","value":1330.0578806842104},{"period":"2018-03","value":1324.2381068571428},{"period":"2018-04","value":1335.3428664285716},{"period":"2018-05","value":1302.6181695909092},{"period":"2018-06","value":1280.0238038095238},{"period":"2018-07","value":1236.0238212380953},{"period":"2018-08","value":1199.9521750434783},{"period":"2018-09","value":1196.7052579473684},{"period":"2018-10","value":1213.9695673478261},{"period":"2018-11","value":1219.2381010000001},{"period":"2018-12","value":1253.0473696842105},{"period":"2019-01","value":1290.8618978095237},{"period":"2019-02","value":1318.4473684210527},{"period":"2019-03","value":1298.5285935238094},{"period":"2019-04","value":1284.7857201428571},{"period":"2019-05","value":1283.3727195454546},{"period":"2019-06","value":1359.66998895},{"period":"2019-07","value":1413.295449090909},{"period":"2019-08","value":1502.0363659545453},{"period":"2019-09","value":1507.4199951},{"period":"2019-10","value":1493.3304230434783},{"period":"2019-11","value":1470.0000062},{"period":"2019-12","value":1480.8523763809524},{"period":"2020-01","value":1559.933337952381},{"period":"2020-02","value":1595.6157805263158},{"period":"2020-03","value":1594.6500077727273},{"period":"2020-04","value":1694.9809394761905},{"period":"2020-05","value":1718.6900146},{"period":"2020-06","value":1735.9227350909093},{"period":"2020-07","value":1847.5409046363636},{"period":"2020-08","value":1966.2380836666666},{"period":"2020-09","value":1920.276187},{"period":"2020-10","value":1900.2454501363636},{"period":"2020-11","value":1866.0799987999999},{"period":"2020-12","value":1859.2954435},{"period":"2021-01","value":1865.1842168947367},{"period":"2021-02","value":1805.531584},{"period":"2021-03","value":1719.5173923478262},{"period":"2021-04","value":1759.7571440000002},{"period":"2021-05","value":1850.6450074},{"period":"2021-06","value":1834.122736181818},{"period":"2021-07","value":1805.5047606666665},{"period":"2021-08","value":1785.231806},{"period":"2021-09","value":1775.899995285714},{"period":"2021-10","value":1776.4047502857143},{"period":"2021-11","value":1819.4999884285712},{"period":"2021-12","value":1791.0454435},{"period":"2022-01","value":1816.6399963},{"period":"2022-02","value":1857.7420912105265},{"period":"2022-03","value":1950.6739024782607},{"period":"2022-04","value":1933.9300048},{"period":"2022-05","value":1845.9380987142856},{"period":"2022-06","value":1834.547619047619},{"period":"2022-07","value":1729.79999995},{"period":"2022-08","value":1762.4782609565218},{"period":"2022-09","value":1678.614286857143},{"period":"2022-10","value":1665.8380940476188},{"period":"2022-11","value":1726.0476307142858},{"period":"2022-12","value":1797.1142867619049},{"period":"2023-01","value":1899.83499145},{"period":"2023-02","value":1853.2368484210524},{"period":"2023-03","value":1912.9608684782609},{"period":"2023-04","value":2001.047363210526},{"period":"2023-05","value":1993.4227294545453},{"period":"2023-06","value":1941.652378666667},{"period":"2023-07","value":1950.7649963},{"period":"2023-08","value":1917.5565185652174},{"period":"2023-09","value":1912.4099976000002},{"period":"2023-10","value":1915.568176318182},{"period":"2023-11","value":1985.3714251904762},{"period":"2023-12","value":2031.6749939000001},{"period":"2024-01","value":2028.0428466190476},{"period":"2024-02","value":2025.21499025},{"period":"2024-03","value":2161.8699951},{"period":"2024-04","value":2332.590897954545},{"period":"2024-05","value":2349.631802590909},{"period":"2024-06","value":2326.078934473684},{"period":"2024-07","value":2393.3363703181817},{"period":"2024-08","value":2467.249988863636},{"period":"2024-09","value":2572.8699828500003},{"period":"2024-10","value":2688.904349956522},{"period":"2024-11","value":2649.8150147},{"period":"2024-12","value":2643.5809500476194},{"period":"2025-01","value":2722.947626047619},{"period":"2025-02","value":2897.1157997894734},{"period":"2025-03","value":2986.4095284761906},{"period":"2025-04","value":3211.152366952381},{"period":"2025-05","value":3280.7380952380954},{"period":"2025-06","value":3350.9399901999996},{"period":"2025-07","value":3341.8086999130433},{"period":"2025-08","value":3372.7428384761906},{"period":"2025-09","value":3682.2999906666664},{"period":"2025-10","value":4044.3739065652176},{"period":"2025-11","value":4082.115761157895},{"period":"2025-12","value":4311.059104318181},{"period":"2026-01","value":4730.859960899999},{"period":"2026-02","value":5011.0368265789475},{"period":"2026-03","value":4856.4908780000005},{"period":"2026-04","value":4731.523809523809},{"period":"2026-05","value":4591.5199951},{"period":"2026-06","value":4233.031827},{"period":"2026-07","value":4085.1739025217394},{"period":"2026-08","value":4466.1090643181815},{"period":"2026-09","value":4357.313051956522},{"period":"2026-10","value":4129.273904608695}],"exposures":[{"ticker":"1491","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"中外鉱業","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"利益は金価格と販売先2社に左右され、10年の価値は今の時価総額を下回る","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=1491","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:00+00:00"},{"ticker":"2120","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"LIFULL","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"換金価格を取得原価と同じだと考えるべきではない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=2120","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:00+00:00"},{"ticker":"259A","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"ケイ・ウノ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"2026年には地金価格への対応として価格改定を行ったが、同年６月までの累計では売上総利益が前年を下回った。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=259A","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:01+00:00"},{"ticker":"2736","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"フェスタリアホールディングス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"地金価格の上昇は、仕入れの在庫評価にも影響し、運転資金の負担が増える。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=2736","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:02+00:00"},{"ticker":"288A","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"ラクサス・テクノロジーズ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"しかしブランド別の人気、真贋への信用、消耗、買取業者の在庫余力によって換金価格は大きく動く。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=288A","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:02+00:00"},{"ticker":"3744","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"サイオス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"実際の継続課金価格とAI置換のバランスを取り、10年より先の名目利益成長は0%とする。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=3744","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:04+00:00"},{"ticker":"3777","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"環境フレンドリーホールディングス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金価格の高騰だけで恒久的に粗利が増えるとも考えない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=3777","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:04+00:00"},{"ticker":"3823","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"THE WHY HOW DO COMPANY","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金価格の上昇と本業利益率を混同しない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=3823","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:04+00:00"},{"ticker":"3911","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"Aiming","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"課金価格を引き上げた後も退会率が低いといった、恒久的な値決め力の数字は提示されていない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=3911","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:05+00:00"},{"ticker":"410A","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"GMOコマース","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"8.87032億÷10,962÷12＝約6,744円/月が取得時参照単価であるが、自治体向けや構築一時金を含み純粋な席課金価格ではない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=410A","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:06+00:00"},{"ticker":"4777","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"ガーラ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"課金価格はゲーム間の競争とプラットフォーム条件で左右されるため値決め力+0.5％、2025年末の純負債は自己資本の2倍を超え営業赤字なので借金+1.0％。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=4777","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:08+00:00"},{"ticker":"4973","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"日本高純度化学","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"売上は金価格で大きく振れ、利益を決めるのは薬品の加工料だ。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=4973","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:08+00:00"},{"ticker":"5242","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"アイズ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"2025年のメディアレーダーは資料ダウンロードの課金価格を引き上げたが、課金件数は前年より約29％減った。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=5242","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:08+00:00"},{"ticker":"5713","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"住友金属鉱山","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"菱刈金山は1985年の操業開始以来、世界でも極めて高品位な金鉱石を産出し続けており、同規模の金鉱山と比べて生産コストが低い点は本物の優位性だが、金価格そのものを決める力は無い(国際市況の受け手)。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=5713","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:09+00:00"},{"ticker":"5724","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"アサカ理研","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"2026年9月期は金価格の急騰で、営業利益が12億円と過去最高になる見通しだ。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=5724","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:09+00:00"},{"ticker":"5857","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"ＡＲＥホールディングス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金価格の急騰で稼ぎは倍になったが、その利益が10年続くとは見ない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=5857","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:09+00:00"},{"ticker":"6045","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"レントラックス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"精錬の市場は回収源と地金価格で規模が大きく動く。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=6045","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:09+00:00"},{"ticker":"6962","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"大真空","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金を使うため金価格に振られること、台湾の工場が台湾ドル高で削られること、売り先に値段を決められることだ。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=6962","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:11+00:00"},{"ticker":"7370","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"Enjin","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"現金は買収や在庫、資金貸付に移り、債券や投資信託は換金価格が変わる。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=7370","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:12+00:00"},{"ticker":"8139","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"ナガホリ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金価格が戻れば、在庫の評価益も消える。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8139","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"8705","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"日産証券グループ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金価格が落ち着けば、取引代金も手数料も細る。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8705","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"9219","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"ギックス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"非上場株式約0.53億円は換金価格が不明なので、この余剰現金に含めない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=9219","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"9256","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"サクシード","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"期中平均ID数や無償利用比率が不明であるため、実際の年額課金価格とは異なる。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=9256","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"9270","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"バリュエンスホールディングス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"一方、買取競争、業者間手数料の競争、地金価格の平準化を考えると会社全体の長期成長は物価3%をやや下回る2.5%とする。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=9270","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"9733","asset_id":"fut_gold","name":"株式会社ナガセ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金価格が下がれば含み益が減り、自己資本も縮む。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=9733","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:16+00:00"}],"exposure_count":25},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}