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年後の新設着工は今より 2〜3 割減ってもおかしくない。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=7539","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:13+00:00"},{"ticker":"7820","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"ニホンフラッシュ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"建築費の上昇で住宅価格は上がり、建具の単価も物価並みに上げやすい。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=7820","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:13+00:00"},{"ticker":"7837","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"アールシーコア","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"新設住宅の着工戸数は3年連続で減り、建築費の高騰で住宅価格が上がり、購入を先送りする人が増えた。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=7837","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:13+00:00"},{"ticker":"8107","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"キムラタン","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"中古住宅の買取再販は、住宅価格の高止まりと、新築を買えない層の増加が追い風になってきた。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8107","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"8309","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"三井住友トラストグループ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"不動産仲介は国内の不動産市況・金利動向に感応し、金利上昇が不動産価格の重荷になれば仲介収益が鈍化するリスクがある一方、相続・事業承継関連の需要は高齢化とともに構造的に増えると見る。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8309","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"8358","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"スルガ銀行","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"景気が崩れて不動産価格が下がれば、与信費用は一気に増える。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8358","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"8772","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"アサックス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"首都圏の不動産価格が2割以上下落した","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8772","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"8801","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"三井不動産","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"住宅（マンション・戸建）の年間引渡し戸数を約3,100戸とし、投資用不動産の資産売却を含む分譲事業全体の売上729,271百万円を戸数で割った実効平均価格2.353億円を適用（単純な住宅価格ではなく、大型資産売却を含む）。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8801","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:14+00:00"},{"ticker":"8919","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"カチタス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"新設住宅着工と建築費・住宅価格の動向","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8919","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"8923","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"トーセイ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"いま好調に見えるのは、低金利、不動産価格の上昇、インバウンドの三つが揃った局面だからだ。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8923","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"8995","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"誠建設工業","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"技術よりも、人口、住宅価格、住宅ローン金利、土地在庫の回転こそが事業の寿命を決める。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8995","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"8996","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"ハウスフリーダム","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"全国の分譲戸建需要は人口減少と住宅価格上昇によって縮小しており、住宅ローン金利も従来の低水準を前提にできなくなる。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8996","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"8999","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"グランディハウス","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"価格の高い首都圏物件の構成比上昇が混ざっており、住宅価格高止まりによる需要減も会社が明記している。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=8999","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"9311","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"アサガミ","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"金利が上がると不動産価格に逆風が吹く。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=9311","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:15+00:00"},{"ticker":"9872","asset_id":"jp_property_2999","name":"北恵","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"主な客である戸建ての新築は、人口の減少と住宅価格の高騰で減り続ける。","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=9872","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:16+00:00"}],"exposure_count":48},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}