{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:43:28+09:00","asset":{"id":"jp_property_3055","name":"愛知県／住宅地","category":"土地","unit":"指数 (2010=100)","currency":"index","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"MLIT mlit_resi 3055 愛知県／住宅地／季節調整なし（国交省 不動産価格指数）","profile":"property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","note":"国交省・季節調整なし。年次・四半期・月次の区分と対象期間、公表状況を確認。面積当たり円価格ではなく価格指数。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"jp_property_3055","period":"2025-12","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":104.95,"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T15:13:07+00:00","source":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx","source_hash":"a83e5724fa8892d85ce0d9cd33972138bd681bdd17cd7938a67adb5760727cbe"},"age_days":307,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"stale","publication_check":{"automatic_forecast_revision":false,"automatic_price_fill":false,"calculation_program_issue_reported":true,"coverage":{"commercial":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"quarterly","has_2025_q4":true,"latest_period":"2025-Q4","periods_with_values":71,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"f95d3c1f4e12bbb7bd7d6bc91c281c5f17909ca2923ec22a2785e738f313b120"},"residential":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"monthly","has_2025_q4":false,"latest_period":"2025-12","periods_with_values":213,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"76ad3577bd28716117a55df460a5d3dcee229b5637de197726309f3de9cca6dc"}},"interpretation":"公表ページの延期告知と配布Excelの掲載期間を併記。Excelに値が載ることと、延期告知の解消を同一視しない。年次の都道府県系列への延期の影響は未確認。","latest_files":{"commercial":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001465568.xlsx","residential":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx"},"notice":"・令和8年10月29日 「不動産価格指数」の公表延期について 令和8年10月30日に公開を予定しておりました「不動産価格指数(令和8年7月・第2四半期分)」につきましては、算出時のプログラムに不具合が発生しており、原因の確認作業を行っております。それに伴い、指数算出作業・精査等に時間を要しているため公表を延期することといたしました。 同様の理由から、令和8年4月以降に公開を予定しておりました 「不動産価格指数(令和8年1月~6月/令和7年第4四半期分・令和8年第1四半期分)」 についても公表を延期しております。 なお、新たな公表日につきましては、日程が決まり次第、速やかにお知らせいたします。","notice_date":"2026-10-29","notice_file_period_conflict":true,"page_source_sha256":"a3f30a5481ba410ec96c641edbe4a82bedb41d83d72c544fbae8a58162f0906f","past_value_revision_scope_verified":false,"schema_version":1,"source_id":"mlit_property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","status":"delay_notice_reported","input_hash":"a81f8e4f10c301d5398fe439d628e762da7e432ac5d62094d67967dea4224a51","checked_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00","check_overdue":false,"last_run":{"status":"ok","finished_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00"}},"forecast":{"id":"jp_property_3055@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"jp_property_3055","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":106.13583333333334,"reference_period":"2025-12","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"416484c1ee1ae76dda21d44a0a0fb248652680fb2615887ebd3cf544eac99d7c","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:35+00:00","reference_period_end":"2025-12-31","reference_lag_days_at_analysis":298,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":true,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3055@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":85.39990991571044,"real_growth":-0.05,"nominal_growth":-0.021500000000000075,"explanation":"人口減・空室と還元利回り上昇","change_from_current":-0.18628003891652756,"annual_from_current":-0.020449987852779183,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":142.64345663081576,"relative_to_cpi":-0.4013051006136289,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3055@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":110.7345026798835,"real_growth":-0.025,"nominal_growth":0.004250000000000087,"explanation":"賃料の物価追随が弱い","change_from_current":0.05511674778354925,"annual_from_current":0.005392142511820852,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":142.64345663081576,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2236972848570108,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3055@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":135.66870571207642,"real_growth":-0.005,"nominal_growth":0.02485000000000004,"explanation":"物価を少し下回る価格上昇","change_from_current":0.29269848224941786,"annual_from_current":0.026067027271282628,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":142.64345663081576,"relative_to_cpi":-0.04889639583532479,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3055@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":165.54692888651175,"real_growth":0.015,"nominal_growth":0.04544999999999999,"explanation":"賃料転嫁と再調達費上昇","change_from_current":0.5773885553740996,"annual_from_current":0.04674293851938294,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":142.64345663081576,"relative_to_cpi":0.1605644787126399,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3055@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":201.22215906345673,"real_growth":0.035,"nominal_growth":0.06604999999999994,"explanation":"供給制約と都市集中が継続","change_from_current":0.9173145218052094,"annual_from_current":0.06741985607657042,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":142.64345663081576,"relative_to_cpi":0.4106651914938664,"real_jpy_target":null}],"expected_price":138.18597549602634,"needs_review":true,"current_baseline_usable":false,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":true,"thesis":"CPI年3%を共通前提とし、人口・賃料・再調達費・長期金利・還元利回りを考える。全国指数は都心の個別物件の時価を代替せず、土地には建物の修繕費を直接加算しない。","sources":["https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-01","value":101.17},{"period":"2011-02","value":91.92},{"period":"2011-03","value":93.11},{"period":"2011-04","value":95.75},{"period":"2011-05","value":98.71},{"period":"2011-06","value":97.16},{"period":"2011-07","value":94.28},{"period":"2011-08","value":98.41},{"period":"2011-09","value":100.01},{"period":"2011-10","value":90.65},{"period":"2011-11","value":94.03},{"period":"2011-12","value":86.71},{"period":"2012-01","value":94.14},{"period":"2012-02","value":94.58},{"period":"2012-03","value":99.9},{"period":"2012-04","value":97.61},{"period":"2012-05","value":91.08},{"period":"2012-06","value":102.58},{"period":"2012-07","value":97.29},{"period":"2012-08","value":90.98},{"period":"2012-09","value":99.43},{"period":"2012-10","value":93.46},{"period":"2012-11","value":97.38},{"period":"2012-12","value":94.75},{"period":"2013-01","value":94.07},{"period":"2013-02","value":93.11},{"period":"2013-03","value":94.94},{"period":"2013-04","value":98.85},{"period":"2013-05","value":94.29},{"period":"2013-06","value":101.58},{"period":"2013-07","value":96.08},{"period":"2013-08","value":99.34},{"period":"2013-09","value":94.52},{"period":"2013-10","value":92.27},{"period":"2013-11","value":94.68},{"period":"2013-12","value":94.06},{"period":"2014-01","value":93.93},{"period":"2014-02","value":89.55},{"period":"2014-03","value":94.44},{"period":"2014-04","value":86.75},{"period":"2014-05","value":97.1},{"period":"2014-06","value":96.8},{"period":"2014-07","value":92.48},{"period":"2014-08","value":93.71},{"period":"2014-09","value":93.73},{"period":"2014-10","value":95.23},{"period":"2014-11","value":93.03},{"period":"2014-12","value":96.98},{"period":"2015-01","value":102.05},{"period":"2015-02","value":94.36},{"period":"2015-03","value":93.03},{"period":"2015-04","value":99.7},{"period":"2015-05","value":93.99},{"period":"2015-06","value":92.51},{"period":"2015-07","value":94.13},{"period":"2015-08","value":98.57},{"period":"2015-09","value":95.63},{"period":"2015-10","value":99.17},{"period":"2015-11","value":92.04},{"period":"2015-12","value":101.47},{"period":"2016-01","value":93.25},{"period":"2016-02","value":90.09},{"period":"2016-03","value":92.92},{"period":"2016-04","value":91.83},{"period":"2016-05","value":96.06},{"period":"2016-06","value":97.89},{"period":"2016-07","value":100.17},{"period":"2016-08","value":94.24},{"period":"2016-09","value":96.46},{"period":"2016-10","value":94.24},{"period":"2016-11","value":94.52},{"period":"2016-12","value":91.02},{"period":"2017-01","value":102.43},{"period":"2017-02","value":86.04},{"period":"2017-03","value":98.19},{"period":"2017-04","value":98.59},{"period":"2017-05","value":101.77},{"period":"2017-06","value":95.46},{"period":"2017-07","value":98.25},{"period":"2017-08","value":104.86},{"period":"2017-09","value":108.25},{"period":"2017-10","value":103.44},{"period":"2017-11","value":109.45},{"period":"2017-12","value":102.29},{"period":"2018-01","value":101.82},{"period":"2018-02","value":96.26},{"period":"2018-03","value":100.63},{"period":"2018-04","value":99.22},{"period":"2018-05","value":105.2},{"period":"2018-06","value":104.88},{"period":"2018-07","value":102.1},{"period":"2018-08","value":93.94},{"period":"2018-09","value":109.69},{"period":"2018-10","value":100.54},{"period":"2018-11","value":105.53},{"period":"2018-12","value":105.53},{"period":"2019-01","value":113.96},{"period":"2019-02","value":109.29},{"period":"2019-03","value":101.16},{"period":"2019-04","value":95.11},{"period":"2019-05","value":102.66},{"period":"2019-06","value":99.92},{"period":"2019-07","value":101.55},{"period":"2019-08","value":112.44},{"period":"2019-09","value":104.25},{"period":"2019-10","value":99.87},{"period":"2019-11","value":100.8},{"period":"2019-12","value":102.27},{"period":"2020-01","value":96.82},{"period":"2020-02","value":101.15},{"period":"2020-03","value":96.17},{"period":"2020-04","value":102.71},{"period":"2020-05","value":104.97},{"period":"2020-06","value":101.73},{"period":"2020-07","value":96.95},{"period":"2020-08","value":92.93},{"period":"2020-09","value":102.17},{"period":"2020-10","value":98.66},{"period":"2020-11","value":96.05},{"period":"2020-12","value":98.66},{"period":"2021-01","value":108.31},{"period":"2021-02","value":93.21},{"period":"2021-03","value":96.41},{"period":"2021-04","value":101.96},{"period":"2021-05","value":103.47},{"period":"2021-06","value":106.84},{"period":"2021-07","value":99.61},{"period":"2021-08","value":99.08},{"period":"2021-09","value":98.06},{"period":"2021-10","value":96.89},{"period":"2021-11","value":93.59},{"period":"2021-12","value":97.8},{"period":"2022-01","value":104.6},{"period":"2022-02","value":95.71},{"period":"2022-03","value":98.93},{"period":"2022-04","value":100.87},{"period":"2022-05","value":97.23},{"period":"2022-06","value":104.24},{"period":"2022-07","value":114.41},{"period":"2022-08","value":102.98},{"period":"2022-09","value":100.07},{"period":"2022-10","value":110.74},{"period":"2022-11","value":107.82},{"period":"2022-12","value":96.53},{"period":"2023-01","value":105.53},{"period":"2023-02","value":99.8},{"period":"2023-03","value":104.84},{"period":"2023-04","value":110.03},{"period":"2023-05","value":111.43},{"period":"2023-06","value":115.07},{"period":"2023-07","value":105.98},{"period":"2023-08","value":113.54},{"period":"2023-09","value":105.33},{"period":"2023-10","value":105.85},{"period":"2023-11","value":102.49},{"period":"2023-12","value":101.9},{"period":"2024-01","value":105.29},{"period":"2024-02","value":107.4},{"period":"2024-03","value":110.04},{"period":"2024-04","value":100.13},{"period":"2024-05","value":103.68},{"period":"2024-06","value":105.07},{"period":"2024-07","value":101.59},{"period":"2024-08","value":109.2},{"period":"2024-09","value":107.75},{"period":"2024-10","value":106.76},{"period":"2024-11","value":108.42},{"period":"2024-12","value":105.33},{"period":"2025-01","value":105.53},{"period":"2025-02","value":102.13},{"period":"2025-03","value":106.41},{"period":"2025-04","value":107.29},{"period":"2025-05","value":109.52},{"period":"2025-06","value":109.1},{"period":"2025-07","value":111.41},{"period":"2025-08","value":108.42},{"period":"2025-09","value":107.23},{"period":"2025-10","value":100.2},{"period":"2025-11","value":101.44},{"period":"2025-12","value":104.95}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}