{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:44:11+09:00","asset":{"id":"jp_property_3061","name":"大阪府／住宅総合","category":"不動産","unit":"指数 (2010=100)","currency":"index","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"MLIT mlit_resi 3061 大阪府／住宅総合／季節調整なし（国交省 不動産価格指数）","profile":"property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","note":"国交省・季節調整なし。年次・四半期・月次の区分と対象期間、公表状況を確認。面積当たり円価格ではなく価格指数。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"jp_property_3061","period":"2025-12","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":157.38,"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T15:13:07+00:00","source":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx","source_hash":"4df6a58ad6a02c28f07227bb5855215b4f86c80f491c039c7baf3d3c6f05f13d"},"age_days":307,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"stale","publication_check":{"automatic_forecast_revision":false,"automatic_price_fill":false,"calculation_program_issue_reported":true,"coverage":{"commercial":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"quarterly","has_2025_q4":true,"latest_period":"2025-Q4","periods_with_values":71,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"f95d3c1f4e12bbb7bd7d6bc91c281c5f17909ca2923ec22a2785e738f313b120"},"residential":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"monthly","has_2025_q4":false,"latest_period":"2025-12","periods_with_values":213,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"76ad3577bd28716117a55df460a5d3dcee229b5637de197726309f3de9cca6dc"}},"interpretation":"公表ページの延期告知と配布Excelの掲載期間を併記。Excelに値が載ることと、延期告知の解消を同一視しない。年次の都道府県系列への延期の影響は未確認。","latest_files":{"commercial":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001465568.xlsx","residential":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx"},"notice":"・令和8年10月29日 「不動産価格指数」の公表延期について 令和8年10月30日に公開を予定しておりました「不動産価格指数(令和8年7月・第2四半期分)」につきましては、算出時のプログラムに不具合が発生しており、原因の確認作業を行っております。それに伴い、指数算出作業・精査等に時間を要しているため公表を延期することといたしました。 同様の理由から、令和8年4月以降に公開を予定しておりました 「不動産価格指数(令和8年1月~6月/令和7年第4四半期分・令和8年第1四半期分)」 についても公表を延期しております。 なお、新たな公表日につきましては、日程が決まり次第、速やかにお知らせいたします。","notice_date":"2026-10-29","notice_file_period_conflict":true,"page_source_sha256":"a3f30a5481ba410ec96c641edbe4a82bedb41d83d72c544fbae8a58162f0906f","past_value_revision_scope_verified":false,"schema_version":1,"source_id":"mlit_property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","status":"delay_notice_reported","input_hash":"a81f8e4f10c301d5398fe439d628e762da7e432ac5d62094d67967dea4224a51","checked_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00","check_overdue":false,"last_run":{"status":"ok","finished_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00"}},"forecast":{"id":"jp_property_3061@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"jp_property_3061","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":153.22833333333332,"reference_period":"2025-12","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"e5540d32ca5c0a57b5108e810cdec262f0791e30bea9391a729e82cfac08a0ff","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:35+00:00","reference_period_end":"2025-12-31","reference_lag_days_at_analysis":298,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":true,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3061@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":123.29187468763566,"real_growth":-0.05,"nominal_growth":-0.021500000000000075,"explanation":"人口減・空室と還元利回り上昇","change_from_current":-0.21659756838457456,"annual_from_current":-0.02417090572625702,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":205.93439966500958,"relative_to_cpi":-0.4013051006136289,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3061@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":159.8674336012884,"real_growth":-0.025,"nominal_growth":0.004250000000000087,"explanation":"賃料の物価追随が弱い","change_from_current":0.015805271326016168,"annual_from_current":0.0015730607431159171,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":205.93439966500958,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2236972848570109,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3061@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":195.8649497428793,"real_growth":-0.005,"nominal_growth":0.02485000000000004,"explanation":"物価を少し下回る価格上昇","change_from_current":0.24453519978954952,"annual_from_current":0.022169409902271786,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":205.93439966500958,"relative_to_cpi":-0.04889639583532479,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3061@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":239.00014919622228,"real_growth":0.015,"nominal_growth":0.04544999999999999,"explanation":"賃料転嫁と再調達費上昇","change_from_current":0.5186183072577346,"annual_from_current":0.04276678165084724,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":205.93439966500958,"relative_to_cpi":0.1605644787126399,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3061@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":290.50448933861514,"real_growth":0.035,"nominal_growth":0.06604999999999994,"explanation":"供給制約と都市集中が継続","change_from_current":0.8458793324349674,"annual_from_current":0.06336515588594516,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":205.93439966500958,"relative_to_cpi":0.4106651914938664,"real_jpy_target":null}],"expected_price":199.49913285927892,"needs_review":true,"current_baseline_usable":false,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":true,"thesis":"CPI年3%を共通前提とし、人口・賃料・再調達費・長期金利・還元利回りを考える。全国指数は都心の個別物件の時価を代替せず、土地には建物の修繕費を直接加算しない。","sources":["https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-01","value":97.72},{"period":"2011-02","value":99.43},{"period":"2011-03","value":100.09},{"period":"2011-04","value":100.1},{"period":"2011-05","value":99.55},{"period":"2011-06","value":98.41},{"period":"2011-07","value":97.87},{"period":"2011-08","value":99.89},{"period":"2011-09","value":98.28},{"period":"2011-10","value":96.48},{"period":"2011-11","value":97.83},{"period":"2011-12","value":96.29},{"period":"2012-01","value":99.85},{"period":"2012-02","value":99.33},{"period":"2012-03","value":101.22},{"period":"2012-04","value":96.72},{"period":"2012-05","value":99.91},{"period":"2012-06","value":97.19},{"period":"2012-07","value":98.72},{"period":"2012-08","value":97.62},{"period":"2012-09","value":99.91},{"period":"2012-10","value":95.12},{"period":"2012-11","value":97.48},{"period":"2012-12","value":100.11},{"period":"2013-01","value":100.87},{"period":"2013-02","value":97.35},{"period":"2013-03","value":101.11},{"period":"2013-04","value":98.3},{"period":"2013-05","value":99.08},{"period":"2013-06","value":98.75},{"period":"2013-07","value":102},{"period":"2013-08","value":100.36},{"period":"2013-09","value":102.09},{"period":"2013-10","value":95.53},{"period":"2013-11","value":99.94},{"period":"2013-12","value":100.06},{"period":"2014-01","value":101.64},{"period":"2014-02","value":101.58},{"period":"2014-03","value":102.67},{"period":"2014-04","value":100.51},{"period":"2014-05","value":100.09},{"period":"2014-06","value":98.5},{"period":"2014-07","value":102.04},{"period":"2014-08","value":102.4},{"period":"2014-09","value":102.1},{"period":"2014-10","value":100.19},{"period":"2014-11","value":101.35},{"period":"2014-12","value":102.53},{"period":"2015-01","value":102.58},{"period":"2015-02","value":105.99},{"period":"2015-03","value":104.08},{"period":"2015-04","value":103.98},{"period":"2015-05","value":101.09},{"period":"2015-06","value":103.84},{"period":"2015-07","value":104.78},{"period":"2015-08","value":105.17},{"period":"2015-09","value":107.12},{"period":"2015-10","value":102.92},{"period":"2015-11","value":103.63},{"period":"2015-12","value":101.67},{"period":"2016-01","value":109.1},{"period":"2016-02","value":108.63},{"period":"2016-03","value":106.46},{"period":"2016-04","value":105.61},{"period":"2016-05","value":104.94},{"period":"2016-06","value":105.16},{"period":"2016-07","value":104.08},{"period":"2016-08","value":108.2},{"period":"2016-09","value":106.47},{"period":"2016-10","value":103.7},{"period":"2016-11","value":106.81},{"period":"2016-12","value":104.88},{"period":"2017-01","value":116},{"period":"2017-02","value":111.19},{"period":"2017-03","value":109.78},{"period":"2017-04","value":109.67},{"period":"2017-05","value":109.99},{"period":"2017-06","value":110.4},{"period":"2017-07","value":112.97},{"period":"2017-08","value":109.08},{"period":"2017-09","value":110.13},{"period":"2017-10","value":110.75},{"period":"2017-11","value":111.93},{"period":"2017-12","value":112.14},{"period":"2018-01","value":116.28},{"period":"2018-02","value":113.53},{"period":"2018-03","value":119.94},{"period":"2018-04","value":116.29},{"period":"2018-05","value":115.34},{"period":"2018-06","value":120.07},{"period":"2018-07","value":120.63},{"period":"2018-08","value":115.48},{"period":"2018-09","value":113.48},{"period":"2018-10","value":114.55},{"period":"2018-11","value":111.7},{"period":"2018-12","value":115.95},{"period":"2019-01","value":119.57},{"period":"2019-02","value":117.39},{"period":"2019-03","value":122.62},{"period":"2019-04","value":121.94},{"period":"2019-05","value":118.15},{"period":"2019-06","value":117.37},{"period":"2019-07","value":117.85},{"period":"2019-08","value":118.12},{"period":"2019-09","value":116.54},{"period":"2019-10","value":115.52},{"period":"2019-11","value":115.93},{"period":"2019-12","value":114.77},{"period":"2020-01","value":120.15},{"period":"2020-02","value":121.35},{"period":"2020-03","value":121.76},{"period":"2020-04","value":118.96},{"period":"2020-05","value":119.19},{"period":"2020-06","value":115.56},{"period":"2020-07","value":117.53},{"period":"2020-08","value":119.04},{"period":"2020-09","value":117.64},{"period":"2020-10","value":116.67},{"period":"2020-11","value":116.96},{"period":"2020-12","value":120.39},{"period":"2021-01","value":122.72},{"period":"2021-02","value":122.01},{"period":"2021-03","value":123.07},{"period":"2021-04","value":124.45},{"period":"2021-05","value":124.71},{"period":"2021-06","value":124.38},{"period":"2021-07","value":125.53},{"period":"2021-08","value":127.99},{"period":"2021-09","value":126.3},{"period":"2021-10","value":126.76},{"period":"2021-11","value":124.74},{"period":"2021-12","value":125.74},{"period":"2022-01","value":137.85},{"period":"2022-02","value":133.26},{"period":"2022-03","value":134.03},{"period":"2022-04","value":138.41},{"period":"2022-05","value":134.57},{"period":"2022-06","value":134.2},{"period":"2022-07","value":137.86},{"period":"2022-08","value":140.81},{"period":"2022-09","value":139.93},{"period":"2022-10","value":134.28},{"period":"2022-11","value":138.27},{"period":"2022-12","value":139.44},{"period":"2023-01","value":146.51},{"period":"2023-02","value":139.6},{"period":"2023-03","value":139.98},{"period":"2023-04","value":134.71},{"period":"2023-05","value":137.78},{"period":"2023-06","value":141.23},{"period":"2023-07","value":142.84},{"period":"2023-08","value":143.91},{"period":"2023-09","value":143.19},{"period":"2023-10","value":142.53},{"period":"2023-11","value":143.02},{"period":"2023-12","value":140.53},{"period":"2024-01","value":145.79},{"period":"2024-02","value":146.79},{"period":"2024-03","value":146.02},{"period":"2024-04","value":147.79},{"period":"2024-05","value":141.21},{"period":"2024-06","value":145.56},{"period":"2024-07","value":142.48},{"period":"2024-08","value":149.95},{"period":"2024-09","value":150.94},{"period":"2024-10","value":143.81},{"period":"2024-11","value":146.01},{"period":"2024-12","value":145.3},{"period":"2025-01","value":152.03},{"period":"2025-02","value":148.64},{"period":"2025-03","value":152.58},{"period":"2025-04","value":155.53},{"period":"2025-05","value":150.13},{"period":"2025-06","value":151.35},{"period":"2025-07","value":150.89},{"period":"2025-08","value":153.33},{"period":"2025-09","value":156.21},{"period":"2025-10","value":153.24},{"period":"2025-11","value":157.43},{"period":"2025-12","value":157.38}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}