{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:43:22+09:00","asset":{"id":"jp_property_3124","name":"三大都市圏以外／工場","category":"不動産","unit":"指数 (2010=100)","currency":"index","frequency":"quarterly","max_age_days":225,"basis":"MLIT mlit_comm 3124 三大都市圏以外／工場／季節調整なし（国交省 不動産価格指数）","profile":"property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","note":"国交省・季節調整なし。年次・四半期・月次の区分と対象期間、公表状況を確認。面積当たり円価格ではなく価格指数。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"jp_property_3124","period":"2025-Q4","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":101.91,"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T15:13:07+00:00","source":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001465568.xlsx","source_hash":"ed97fd0da82cba5fd094938da1bc32b15a4e407c238addc5f3f77278f7ef3d06"},"age_days":307,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"stale","publication_check":{"automatic_forecast_revision":false,"automatic_price_fill":false,"calculation_program_issue_reported":true,"coverage":{"commercial":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"quarterly","has_2025_q4":true,"latest_period":"2025-Q4","periods_with_values":71,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"f95d3c1f4e12bbb7bd7d6bc91c281c5f17909ca2923ec22a2785e738f313b120"},"residential":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"monthly","has_2025_q4":false,"latest_period":"2025-12","periods_with_values":213,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"76ad3577bd28716117a55df460a5d3dcee229b5637de197726309f3de9cca6dc"}},"interpretation":"公表ページの延期告知と配布Excelの掲載期間を併記。Excelに値が載ることと、延期告知の解消を同一視しない。年次の都道府県系列への延期の影響は未確認。","latest_files":{"commercial":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001465568.xlsx","residential":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx"},"notice":"・令和8年10月29日 「不動産価格指数」の公表延期について 令和8年10月30日に公開を予定しておりました「不動産価格指数(令和8年7月・第2四半期分)」につきましては、算出時のプログラムに不具合が発生しており、原因の確認作業を行っております。それに伴い、指数算出作業・精査等に時間を要しているため公表を延期することといたしました。 同様の理由から、令和8年4月以降に公開を予定しておりました 「不動産価格指数(令和8年1月~6月/令和7年第4四半期分・令和8年第1四半期分)」 についても公表を延期しております。 なお、新たな公表日につきましては、日程が決まり次第、速やかにお知らせいたします。","notice_date":"2026-10-29","notice_file_period_conflict":true,"page_source_sha256":"a3f30a5481ba410ec96c641edbe4a82bedb41d83d72c544fbae8a58162f0906f","past_value_revision_scope_verified":false,"schema_version":1,"source_id":"mlit_property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","status":"delay_notice_reported","input_hash":"a81f8e4f10c301d5398fe439d628e762da7e432ac5d62094d67967dea4224a51","checked_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00","check_overdue":false,"last_run":{"status":"ok","finished_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00"}},"forecast":{"id":"jp_property_3124@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"jp_property_3124","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":104.7275,"reference_period":"2025-Q4","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"74384ec4d3b392cd5c3343adc10039fb2a8a307b5c22c995fbe00cfdc9af0b33","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:35+00:00","reference_period_end":"2025-12-31","reference_lag_days_at_analysis":298,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":true,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3124@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":84.26672486387002,"real_growth":-0.05,"nominal_growth":-0.021500000000000075,"explanation":"人口減・空室と還元利回り上昇","change_from_current":-0.17312604392238218,"annual_from_current":-0.018874251972220923,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":140.7506978099174,"relative_to_cpi":-0.4013051006136289,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3124@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":109.26514886810926,"real_growth":-0.025,"nominal_growth":0.004250000000000087,"explanation":"賃料の物価追随が弱い","change_from_current":0.0721729846738226,"annual_from_current":0.007009448880399782,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":140.7506978099174,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2236972848570108,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3124@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":133.8684959757055,"real_growth":-0.005,"nominal_growth":0.02485000000000004,"explanation":"物価を少し下回る価格上昇","change_from_current":0.3135952897233394,"annual_from_current":0.027717591929216745,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":140.7506978099174,"relative_to_cpi":-0.04889639583532468,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3124@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":163.3502602322071,"real_growth":0.015,"nominal_growth":0.04544999999999999,"explanation":"賃料転嫁と再調達費上昇","change_from_current":0.6028874519890794,"annual_from_current":0.04842676311791494,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":140.7506978099174,"relative_to_cpi":0.1605644787126399,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3124@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":198.55211007892242,"real_growth":0.035,"nominal_growth":0.06604999999999994,"explanation":"供給制約と都市集中が継続","change_from_current":0.9483084101552588,"annual_from_current":0.06913694223448208,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":140.7506978099174,"relative_to_cpi":0.41066519149386616,"real_jpy_target":null}],"expected_price":136.35236370462474,"needs_review":true,"current_baseline_usable":false,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":true,"thesis":"CPI年3%を共通前提とし、人口・賃料・再調達費・長期金利・還元利回りを考える。全国指数は都心の個別物件の時価を代替せず、土地には建物の修繕費を直接加算しない。","sources":["https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2008-06","source_period":"2008-Q2","period_end":"2008-06-30","value":111.35},{"period":"2008-09","source_period":"2008-Q3","period_end":"2008-09-30","value":111.78},{"period":"2008-12","source_period":"2008-Q4","period_end":"2008-12-31","value":105.63},{"period":"2009-03","source_period":"2009-Q1","period_end":"2009-03-31","value":87.35},{"period":"2009-06","source_period":"2009-Q2","period_end":"2009-06-30","value":103.09},{"period":"2009-09","source_period":"2009-Q3","period_end":"2009-09-30","value":98.37},{"period":"2009-12","source_period":"2009-Q4","period_end":"2009-12-31","value":86.68},{"period":"2010-03","source_period":"2010-Q1","period_end":"2010-03-31","value":102.93},{"period":"2010-06","source_period":"2010-Q2","period_end":"2010-06-30","value":91.78},{"period":"2010-09","source_period":"2010-Q3","period_end":"2010-09-30","value":100},{"period":"2010-12","source_period":"2010-Q4","period_end":"2010-12-31","value":105.27},{"period":"2011-03","source_period":"2011-Q1","period_end":"2011-03-31","value":95.18},{"period":"2011-06","source_period":"2011-Q2","period_end":"2011-06-30","value":85.27},{"period":"2011-09","source_period":"2011-Q3","period_end":"2011-09-30","value":91.5},{"period":"2011-12","source_period":"2011-Q4","period_end":"2011-12-31","value":85.82},{"period":"2012-03","source_period":"2012-Q1","period_end":"2012-03-31","value":85.16},{"period":"2012-06","source_period":"2012-Q2","period_end":"2012-06-30","value":87.08},{"period":"2012-09","source_period":"2012-Q3","period_end":"2012-09-30","value":88.61},{"period":"2012-12","source_period":"2012-Q4","period_end":"2012-12-31","value":85.25},{"period":"2013-03","source_period":"2013-Q1","period_end":"2013-03-31","value":92.26},{"period":"2013-06","source_period":"2013-Q2","period_end":"2013-06-30","value":87.8},{"period":"2013-09","source_period":"2013-Q3","period_end":"2013-09-30","value":104.94},{"period":"2013-12","source_period":"2013-Q4","period_end":"2013-12-31","value":86.06},{"period":"2014-03","source_period":"2014-Q1","period_end":"2014-03-31","value":89.78},{"period":"2014-06","source_period":"2014-Q2","period_end":"2014-06-30","value":85.35},{"period":"2014-09","source_period":"2014-Q3","period_end":"2014-09-30","value":79.61},{"period":"2014-12","source_period":"2014-Q4","period_end":"2014-12-31","value":91.98},{"period":"2015-03","source_period":"2015-Q1","period_end":"2015-03-31","value":94.6},{"period":"2015-06","source_period":"2015-Q2","period_end":"2015-06-30","value":99.45},{"period":"2015-09","source_period":"2015-Q3","period_end":"2015-09-30","value":94.94},{"period":"2015-12","source_period":"2015-Q4","period_end":"2015-12-31","value":87.18},{"period":"2016-03","source_period":"2016-Q1","period_end":"2016-03-31","value":100.57},{"period":"2016-06","source_period":"2016-Q2","period_end":"2016-06-30","value":92.48},{"period":"2016-09","source_period":"2016-Q3","period_end":"2016-09-30","value":104.57},{"period":"2016-12","source_period":"2016-Q4","period_end":"2016-12-31","value":99.96},{"period":"2017-03","source_period":"2017-Q1","period_end":"2017-03-31","value":105.33},{"period":"2017-06","source_period":"2017-Q2","period_end":"2017-06-30","value":100.47},{"period":"2017-09","source_period":"2017-Q3","period_end":"2017-09-30","value":102.57},{"period":"2017-12","source_period":"2017-Q4","period_end":"2017-12-31","value":106.48},{"period":"2018-03","source_period":"2018-Q1","period_end":"2018-03-31","value":117.94},{"period":"2018-06","source_period":"2018-Q2","period_end":"2018-06-30","value":107.05},{"period":"2018-09","source_period":"2018-Q3","period_end":"2018-09-30","value":98.37},{"period":"2018-12","source_period":"2018-Q4","period_end":"2018-12-31","value":100.77},{"period":"2019-03","source_period":"2019-Q1","period_end":"2019-03-31","value":112.08},{"period":"2019-06","source_period":"2019-Q2","period_end":"2019-06-30","value":100.12},{"period":"2019-09","source_period":"2019-Q3","period_end":"2019-09-30","value":114.24},{"period":"2019-12","source_period":"2019-Q4","period_end":"2019-12-31","value":88.8},{"period":"2020-03","source_period":"2020-Q1","period_end":"2020-03-31","value":117.81},{"period":"2020-06","source_period":"2020-Q2","period_end":"2020-06-30","value":86.79},{"period":"2020-09","source_period":"2020-Q3","period_end":"2020-09-30","value":84.08},{"period":"2020-12","source_period":"2020-Q4","period_end":"2020-12-31","value":93.12},{"period":"2021-03","source_period":"2021-Q1","period_end":"2021-03-31","value":90.53},{"period":"2021-06","source_period":"2021-Q2","period_end":"2021-06-30","value":88.23},{"period":"2021-09","source_period":"2021-Q3","period_end":"2021-09-30","value":104.26},{"period":"2021-12","source_period":"2021-Q4","period_end":"2021-12-31","value":86.53},{"period":"2022-03","source_period":"2022-Q1","period_end":"2022-03-31","value":94.76},{"period":"2022-06","source_period":"2022-Q2","period_end":"2022-06-30","value":104.28},{"period":"2022-09","source_period":"2022-Q3","period_end":"2022-09-30","value":100.12},{"period":"2022-12","source_period":"2022-Q4","period_end":"2022-12-31","value":93.96},{"period":"2023-03","source_period":"2023-Q1","period_end":"2023-03-31","value":110.08},{"period":"2023-06","source_period":"2023-Q2","period_end":"2023-06-30","value":91.01},{"period":"2023-09","source_period":"2023-Q3","period_end":"2023-09-30","value":97.46},{"period":"2023-12","source_period":"2023-Q4","period_end":"2023-12-31","value":94.21},{"period":"2024-03","source_period":"2024-Q1","period_end":"2024-03-31","value":108.71},{"period":"2024-06","source_period":"2024-Q2","period_end":"2024-06-30","value":108.59},{"period":"2024-09","source_period":"2024-Q3","period_end":"2024-09-30","value":106.58},{"period":"2024-12","source_period":"2024-Q4","period_end":"2024-12-31","value":89.55},{"period":"2025-03","source_period":"2025-Q1","period_end":"2025-03-31","value":104.68},{"period":"2025-06","source_period":"2025-Q2","period_end":"2025-06-30","value":108.45},{"period":"2025-09","source_period":"2025-Q3","period_end":"2025-09-30","value":103.87},{"period":"2025-12","source_period":"2025-Q4","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":101.91}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}