{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:48:20+09:00","asset":{"id":"pending_rare_earth_dy","name":"ジスプロシウム酸化物","category":"金属・鉱物","unit":"USD/kg","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"unconnected:rare_earth_dy","profile":"metal","source_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center","note":"純度・市場と再配布条件を確認した継続価格源が未接続","status":"pending","quote":null,"age_days":null,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"pending","publication_check":null,"forecast":null,"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[{"assessment":"世界の鉱石総量だけで需要超過とは断定できない。中国外の分離・精製・磁石、特に重希土類と輸出許可を通過する供給の不足リスクが残る分断市場として見る。","asset_ids":["pending_rare_earth_ndpr","pending_rare_earth_dy"],"balance_basis":"IEAの2035年見通しでは、中国外等の多様化地域における精製・磁石の計画能力は採掘側より手薄。採掘トン数を全元素の需要や磁石生産能力へ直接換算しない。","case_ids":["rare_earth_2010"],"countries":[{"country":"中国","now":"供給の集中と輸出許可が供給網のリスクとなっている。許可遅延と全面禁輸は区別する。","sources":["iea26","meti25","meti26"],"stage":"採掘・分離・金属/磁石・輸出管理","ten_year":"国内需要、管理対象の元素/技術、許可運用、域内外価格差を追う。中国の生産能力が十分でも海外に同量が届くとは限らない。"},{"country":"豪州","now":"中国外供給源の一角。鉱石の産地と分離・精製の場所は別に確認する。","sources":["meti25","iea26"],"stage":"鉱山・上流の多様化","ten_year":"新鉱山の採算・品位・建設と、分離能力への接続を確認する。総REO量だけでDy/Tbの供給増としない。"},{"country":"マレーシア","now":"IEAは増産を供給源の多様化の事例として挙げる。","sources":["iea26"],"stage":"分離・精製","ten_year":"原料調達、重希土類分離、環境許認可、操業実績が継続するかを見る。"},{"country":"米国","now":"MP Materialsの会社開示は分離製品・磁石の立上げを説明する。立上げと安定量産は区別する。","sources":["mp26","iea26"],"stage":"採掘から分離・磁石への接続","ten_year":"分離・金属化・磁石の認証と量産、支援条件、重希土類原料の供給を確認する。"},{"country":"日本","now":"調達先多様化と省資源化を進めてきたが、元素・工程ごとの依存と許可の遅れが残る。","sources":["meti25","meti26"],"stage":"磁石・需要家・調達多様化","ten_year":"Dy/Tb節減、代替、磁石回収、長期引取の条件が実需と供給の双方を変えるかを見る。"}],"evidence_period":"主に2025年実績・政策、2026年上期の開示。2026年10月時点の元素別在庫・実効稼働率は未接続。","id":"rare_earths","numerical_limit":"NdPr酸化物、Nd金属、Dy酸化物、Dy金属を同じ価格にしない。現在の品位・地域別の連続価格は未接続で、歴史的な倍率を掛けた2036年価格・確率は算出していない。","scenarios":["低価格：分離・磁石の一貫供給が多様化し、省資源・代替と増産が需要増を上回る。過去の高値へ戻る前提を置かない。","やや低価格：許可運用が安定し、中国外の認証済み供給が増えて供給不安プレミアムが縮む。","中立：需要と供給がともに増えるが、重希土類・分離工程の局所的制約は残る。元素別の数量照合を要する仮説。","やや高価格：許可遅延や分離能力の立上げ遅れが続き、調達地域によるプレミアムが定着する。","高価格：特定元素・技術の制限が長期化し、代替・在庫・増産が追いつかない。短期暴騰が2036年にも残るにはこの持続条件が必要。"],"title":"レアアース：採掘量より分離・磁石・輸出許可の制約を見る","to_2030":"既存・建設中案件の実稼働、分離歩留まり、磁石の認証、許可の運用を優先する。新鉱山の発表だけで不足解消とはしない。","to_2036":"採掘→分離→金属/合金→磁石まで中国外の一貫供給が育つかを検証する。省資源・代替モーター・使用済み磁石回収は需要の元素構成も変える。2035年資料を2036年数量へ機械的に延長していない。","case_studies":[{"id":"rare_earth_2010","market_id":"rare_earths","mechanism":"集中した供給に輸出枠縮小と調達不安が重なり、代替供給が短期に応答できなかった。在庫積増しが短期需要を膨らませ得る。2010年の対日出荷の状況には資料間の違いがあり、全元素・全取引の一律禁輸とは書かない。","metrics":[{"basis":"資源エネルギー庁が2010年の規制後について示す総括。全元素が同率上昇したという意味ではない。","kind":"source_reported_multiple","product":"レアアース価格の総括（元素・品位を固定した単一系列ではない）","sources":["anre"],"unit":"倍程度・最大との公表","value":10}],"normalization":"IRENAは、省資源・代替・在庫管理・供給源追加等による需要と供給の変化を挙げ、2012年には価格上昇が緩和したと整理する。高値が供給応答と需要破壊を促すことにも注意する。","period":"2010〜2012年","replay_limit":"過去の最大倍率を現在のNdPr/Dy酸化物の価格へ掛けない。途中の価格ピークと10年後の正常価格は別に評価する。","sources":["anre","irena"],"terminal_condition":"2036年まで高い相対価格が残るには、分離・磁石・特定重希土類の制約や取引分断が、増産・代替・回収を上回って残る必要がある。","title":"2010〜2012年：中国の輸出枠とレアアース価格急騰"}],"assets":[{"id":"pending_rare_earth_ndpr","name":"ネオジム・プラセオジム酸化物","unit":"USD/kg","status":"pending"},{"id":"pending_rare_earth_dy","name":"ジスプロシウム酸化物","unit":"USD/kg","status":"pending"},{"id":"usgs_dy_oxide_995_fob_annual","name":"Dy酸化物（99.5%以上・年平均参考）","unit":"USD/kg","status":"reference"},{"id":"usgs_ndpr_oxide_99_fob_annual","name":"NdPr酸化物（99%以上・年平均参考）","unit":"USD/kg","status":"reference"}],"quantitative_evidence":{"year":"2025","previous_year":"2024","world":{"market_id":"rare_earths","metric":"reo_mine","metric_name":"レアアース採掘量","country":"World 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原表の推計年：2025。","quote":{"asset_id":"usgs_dy_oxide_995_fob_annual","period":"2025","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":239,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:33+00:00","source":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-rare-earths-heavy.pdf","source_hash":"c9bf719946498b8ab90aceb901f94e63f2f5858c0efcba5b0232f3105eea5cc1"},"previous_quote":{"asset_id":"usgs_dy_oxide_995_fob_annual","period":"2024","period_end":"2024-12-31","value":257,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:33+00:00","source":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-rare-earths-heavy.pdf","source_hash":"c9bf719946498b8ab90aceb901f94e63f2f5858c0efcba5b0232f3105eea5cc1"}},{"id":"usgs_ndpr_oxide_99_fob_annual","name":"NdPr酸化物（99%以上・年平均参考）","unit":"USD/kg","note":"USGS年次資料のFOB年平均。原典はArgus等。現在のスポット/着値や、企業の調達単価ではない。年次更新の参考値で、2036年の予測へ自動接続しない。 原表の推計年：2025。","quote":{"asset_id":"usgs_ndpr_oxide_99_fob_annual","period":"2025","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":69,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:33+00:00","source":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-rare-earths.pdf","source_hash":"0116a192336fec41c38d8e11dad553bb7703308c1fbd1f97dc14b75c7e7d9900"},"previous_quote":{"asset_id":"usgs_ndpr_oxide_99_fob_annual","period":"2024","period_end":"2024-12-31","value":55,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:33+00:00","source":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-rare-earths.pdf","source_hash":"0116a192336fec41c38d8e11dad553bb7703308c1fbd1f97dc14b75c7e7d9900"}}],"global_supply_demand_gap":null,"gap_reason":"同じ元素・品位・工程・地域・期間による世界需要・在庫・実効供給が揃っていないため、採掘総量から余剰/不足を計算しない。"},"supply_outlook":{"revision":4,"as_of":"2026-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","license":"IEA, CC BY 4.0. 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