{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:47:46+09:00","asset":{"id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu","name":"ソルガム・米国農家受取価格","category":"食料・農業","unit":"USD/bushel","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":120,"basis":"USDA ERS U.S. monthly prices received by farmers sorghum","profile":"food","source_url":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/feed-grains-yearbook-tables","note":"米国の農家受取価格。国際FOB・日本輸入CIF・世界銀行Pink Sheetの旧価格と水準を接続しない。","status":"reference","quote":{"asset_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu","period":"2026-08","period_end":"2026-08-31","value":4.312,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:21+00:00","source":"https://ers.usda.gov/media/5766/feed-grains-yearbook-tables-all-years.csv","source_hash":"ff6b1e859b568a4cba184033fc473f5a7ef70875bc240b231236c7aa39fba03f"},"age_days":64,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"reference","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu@usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","asset_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu","model_version":"usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-02-20","reference_value":3.829,"reference_period":"2026-08","reference_method":"1949年以降のUSDA月次系列・2026年8月までの直近12か月算術平均","input_hash":"d146526008c2fa3927d0612254ca45204ca11cb3adb39f5b310c4f5ebb4e4848","created_at":"2026-10-26T19:21:47+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu@usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":2.7650111867344913,"real_growth":-0.060220725225787586,"nominal_growth":-0.03202734698256127,"explanation":"豊作と飼料代替が重なり、実質農家受取価格が歴史的な下側に寄る。","change_from_current":-0.3587636394400531,"annual_from_current":-0.04356205187774764,"jpy_target":414.7516780101737,"cpi_only_target_price":5.146064041576221,"relative_to_cpi":-0.46269398041001086,"real_jpy_target":308.60171235151023},{"forecast_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu@usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":3.393574118161581,"real_growth":-0.04077455598855606,"nominal_growth":-0.011997792668212659,"explanation":"輸出需要が弱く、米国内の供給余力が増える。","change_from_current":-0.2129930152686501,"annual_from_current":-0.02372179354362869,"jpy_target":509.03611772423716,"cpi_only_target_price":5.146064041576221,"relative_to_cpi":-0.3405495752201829,"real_jpy_target":378.75535147228794},{"forecast_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu@usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":4.581373939592311,"real_growth":-0.011554459488025803,"nominal_growth":0.018098906727333608,"explanation":"USDAの2025/26→2035/36見通しの実質価格変化率を、現在の農家受取価格の12か月平均に適用する独自の比較基準。","change_from_current":0.0624707652115748,"annual_from_current":0.006092328726779339,"jpy_target":687.2060909388466,"cpi_only_target_price":5.146064041576221,"relative_to_cpi":-0.10973242801132088,"real_jpy_target":511.3251799716978},{"forecast_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu@usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":5.171868465349221,"real_growth":0.0005002435989800436,"nominal_growth":0.030515250906949287,"explanation":"飼料・輸出需要の増加と在庫縮小で実質価格が下支えされる。","change_from_current":0.19941290940380818,"annual_from_current":0.01839273418585563,"jpy_target":775.7802698023831,"cpi_only_target_price":5.146064041576221,"relative_to_cpi":0.005014400047205214,"real_jpy_target":577.2300206671123},{"forecast_id":"usda_sorghum_farm_usd_bu@usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":7.910998929938116,"real_growth":0.04393403681177932,"nominal_growth":0.07525205791613265,"explanation":"乾燥・作柄悪化、輸出集中と在庫不足が重なり、実質価格が過去10年変化の上側に寄る。","change_from_current":0.8346472472027169,"annual_from_current":0.06271481176529914,"jpy_target":1186.6498394907173,"cpi_only_target_price":5.146064041576221,"relative_to_cpi":0.5372911930406148,"real_jpy_target":882.943196722877}],"expected_price":4.613239104206346,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"USDAの米国長期需給・農家価格と過去の実質10年変化の幅を分け、共通CPI3%で2036年価格条件を比較する。","sources":["https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/113817/OCE-2026-1.pdf","https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS","https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/feed-grains-yearbook-tables"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"中立はUSDAの旧時点の実質相対変化を独自延長。上下は重複する過去10年変化の記述的分位点。5配分は主観的・未校正。米国農家価格で、旧WB国際価格/日本の仕入値ではない。","resource_model":{"kind":"usda_grain_real_anchor","version":"usda-grain-outlook-20261027-r2","crop":"sorghum","source_report_sha256":"35d633bad208d07eeefc8a78293b02364484add41ef2810b37b74fab19aeb217","monthly_source_sha256":"ff6b1e859b568a4cba184033fc473f5a7ef70875bc240b231236c7aa39fba03f","fred_cpi_sha256":"cfab9b9be4a5d4f06253c4dcc3f7e0b28b1d58837e710dd7cb1fd54a49e7ad7c","source_pdf_page":45,"source_annual":{"pdf_page":45,"marketing_year_start_month":9,"year_labels":["2024/25","2025/26","2026/27","2027/28","2028/29","2029/30","2030/31","2031/32","2032/33","2033/34","2034/35","2035/36"],"metrics":{"production":[344,428,394,394,394,394,394,394,394,394,394,394],"imports":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"domestic_use":[242,200,170,170,170,170,170,170,170,170,170,170],"exports":[95,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225],"total_use":[337,425,395,395,395,395,395,395,395,395,395,395],"ending_stocks":[40,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33],"stocks_to_use_percent":[11.9,10.2,10.6,10.4,10.1,9.9,9.6,9.4,9.1,8.9,8.6,8.4],"farm_price_usd_bu":[4.07,3.8,4,4.05,4.15,4.25,4.25,4.25,4.25,4.25,4.25,4.25],"variable_cost_usd_acre":[176,178,183,182,187,189,192,195,198,201,204,207],"beginning_stocks":[33,40,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34],"supply":[377,468,437,436,435,434,433,432,431,430,429,428]}},"usda_projected_real_ratio":0.8902675719886791,"historical_diagnostic":{"overlapping_start_month_count":790,"nonoverlapping_decade_count_at_most":7,"real_ten_year_ratio_quantiles":{"0.1":0.5373060195899891,"0.3":0.6594504247798171,"0.5":0.8262215660786958,"0.7":1.0050144000472052,"0.9":1.5372911930406148},"historical_min":0.36449881644836984,"historical_max":2.5322206533270757,"independent_trials":false,"future_probabilities_calibrated":false},"cases":[{"rank":0,"label":"低価格","subjective_weight":0.1,"real_ten_year_multiplier":0.5373060195899891,"nominal_2036_usd_bu":2.7650111867344913,"real_growth_annual":-0.060220725225787586,"nominal_growth_annual":-0.03202734698256127,"anchor_kind":"descriptive_overlapping_history_quantile","condition":"豊作と飼料代替が重なり、実質農家受取価格が歴史的な下側に寄る。"},{"rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","subjective_weight":0.2,"real_ten_year_multiplier":0.6594504247798171,"nominal_2036_usd_bu":3.393574118161581,"real_growth_annual":-0.04077455598855606,"nominal_growth_annual":-0.011997792668212659,"anchor_kind":"descriptive_overlapping_history_quantile","condition":"輸出需要が弱く、米国内の供給余力が増える。"},{"rank":2,"label":"中立","subjective_weight":0.4,"real_ten_year_multiplier":0.8902675719886791,"nominal_2036_usd_bu":4.581373939592311,"real_growth_annual":-0.011554459488025803,"nominal_growth_annual":0.018098906727333608,"anchor_kind":"USDA_real_2035_36_relative_change","condition":"USDAの2025/26→2035/36見通しの実質価格変化率を、現在の農家受取価格の12か月平均に適用する独自の比較基準。"},{"rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","subjective_weight":0.2,"real_ten_year_multiplier":1.0050144000472052,"nominal_2036_usd_bu":5.171868465349221,"real_growth_annual":0.0005002435989800436,"nominal_growth_annual":0.030515250906949287,"anchor_kind":"descriptive_overlapping_history_quantile","condition":"飼料・輸出需要の増加と在庫縮小で実質価格が下支えされる。"},{"rank":4,"label":"高価格","subjective_weight":0.1,"real_ten_year_multiplier":1.5372911930406148,"nominal_2036_usd_bu":7.910998929938116,"real_growth_annual":0.04393403681177932,"nominal_growth_annual":0.07525205791613265,"anchor_kind":"descriptive_overlapping_history_quantile","condition":"乾燥・作柄悪化、輸出集中と在庫不足が重なり、実質価格が過去10年変化の上側に寄る。"}],"probabilities_calibrated":false,"world_bank_price_replaced":false}},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-09","value":5.88},{"period":"2011-10","value":5.992},{"period":"2011-11","value":5.992},{"period":"2011-12","value":5.88},{"period":"2012-01","value":6.048},{"period":"2012-02","value":6.048},{"period":"2012-03","value":6.104},{"period":"2012-04","value":5.936},{"period":"2012-05","value":5.824},{"period":"2012-06","value":5.3536},{"period":"2012-07","value":5.936},{"period":"2012-08","value":6.328},{"period":"2012-09","value":6.44},{"period":"2012-10","value":6.944},{"period":"2012-11","value":6.944},{"period":"2012-12","value":6.832},{"period":"2013-01","value":6.72},{"period":"2013-02","value":6.776},{"period":"2013-03","value":6.832},{"period":"2013-04","value":6.496},{"period":"2013-05","value":6.384},{"period":"2013-06","value":6.216},{"period":"2013-07","value":5.3928},{"period":"2013-08","value":4.9392},{"period":"2013-09","value":4.5752},{"period":"2013-10","value":4.3288},{"period":"2013-11","value":4.1328},{"period":"2013-12","value":4.1944},{"period":"2014-01","value":4.2112},{"period":"2014-02","value":4.284},{"period":"2014-03","value":4.6144},{"period":"2014-04","value":4.788},{"period":"2014-05","value":4.6032},{"period":"2014-06","value":4.2168},{"period":"2014-07","value":4.144},{"period":"2014-08","value":3.9928},{"period":"2014-09","value":3.6568},{"period":"2014-10","value":3.5056},{"period":"2014-11","value":3.6848},{"period":"2014-12","value":4.1048},{"period":"2015-01","value":4.144},{"period":"2015-02","value":4.4016},{"period":"2015-03","value":4.48},{"period":"2015-04","value":4.424},{"period":"2015-05","value":4.2392},{"period":"2015-06","value":4.3848},{"period":"2015-07","value":4.3008},{"period":"2015-08","value":4.424},{"period":"2015-09","value":4.1328},{"period":"2015-10","value":3.5336},{"period":"2015-11","value":3.2648},{"period":"2015-12","value":3.2256},{"period":"2016-01","value":3.136},{"period":"2016-02","value":3.1024},{"period":"2016-03","value":3.1752},{"period":"2016-04","value":3.0016},{"period":"2016-05","value":3.1136},{"period":"2016-06","value":3.5392},{"period":"2016-07","value":3.4104},{"period":"2016-08","value":3.0744},{"period":"2016-09","value":2.7048},{"period":"2016-10","value":2.6544},{"period":"2016-11","value":2.5704},{"period":"2016-12","value":2.6432},{"period":"2017-01","value":2.7048},{"period":"2017-02","value":2.8056},{"period":"2017-03","value":2.7328},{"period":"2017-04","value":2.744},{"period":"2017-05","value":2.8896},{"period":"2017-06","value":3.1584},{"period":"2017-07","value":3.696},{"period":"2017-08","value":3.4216},{"period":"2017-09","value":3.248},{"period":"2017-10","value":3.0352},{"period":"2017-11","value":3.0128},{"period":"2017-12","value":3.0744},{"period":"2018-01","value":3.2256},{"period":"2018-02","value":3.3824},{"period":"2018-03","value":3.36},{"period":"2018-04","value":3.4272},{"period":"2018-05","value":3.4272},{"period":"2018-06","value":3.948},{"period":"2018-07","value":3.8024},{"period":"2018-08","value":3.6288},{"period":"2018-09","value":3.4104},{"period":"2018-10","value":3.2032},{"period":"2018-11","value":3.0968},{"period":"2018-12","value":3.1808},{"period":"2019-01","value":3.1976},{"period":"2019-02","value":3.2592},{"period":"2019-03","value":3.2816},{"period":"2019-04","value":3.024},{"period":"2019-05","value":3.1752},{"period":"2019-06","value":3.6288},{"period":"2019-07","value":3.9368},{"period":"2019-08","value":3.2872},{"period":"2019-09","value":3.36},{"period":"2019-10","value":3.2984},{"period":"2019-11","value":3.1752},{"period":"2019-12","value":3.1584},{"period":"2020-01","value":3.22},{"period":"2020-02","value":3.2816},{"period":"2020-03","value":3.2816},{"period":"2020-04","value":3.2312},{"period":"2020-05","value":3.3152},{"period":"2020-06","value":3.612},{"period":"2020-07","value":4.06},{"period":"2020-08","value":3.5392},{"period":"2020-09","value":4.0824},{"period":"2020-10","value":4.4744},{"period":"2020-11","value":4.8384},{"period":"2020-12","value":5.012},{"period":"2021-01","value":5.264},{"period":"2021-02","value":6.216},{"period":"2021-03","value":6.16},{"period":"2021-04","value":6.552},{"period":"2021-05","value":6.832},{"period":"2021-06","value":6.608},{"period":"2021-07","value":5.992},{"period":"2021-08","value":5.712},{"period":"2021-09","value":5.432},{"period":"2021-10","value":5.3256},{"period":"2021-11","value":5.656},{"period":"2021-12","value":5.88},{"period":"2022-01","value":6.048},{"period":"2022-02","value":6.664},{"period":"2022-03","value":7.056},{"period":"2022-04","value":7.392},{"period":"2022-05","value":7.392},{"period":"2022-06","value":6.104},{"period":"2022-07","value":5.5272},{"period":"2022-08","value":6.496},{"period":"2022-09","value":6.776},{"period":"2022-10","value":7.056},{"period":"2022-11","value":7.168},{"period":"2022-12","value":6.888},{"period":"2023-01","value":6.664},{"period":"2023-02","value":7},{"period":"2023-03","value":6.776},{"period":"2023-04","value":6.888},{"period":"2023-05","value":6.496},{"period":"2023-06","value":6.384},{"period":"2023-07","value":5.4544},{"period":"2023-08","value":5.1688},{"period":"2023-09","value":5.2304},{"period":"2023-10","value":5.2696},{"period":"2023-11","value":5.068},{"period":"2023-12","value":4.872},{"period":"2024-01","value":4.8888},{"period":"2024-02","value":4.732},{"period":"2024-03","value":4.7488},{"period":"2024-04","value":4.7936},{"period":"2024-05","value":4.6704},{"period":"2024-06","value":4.872},{"period":"2024-07","value":4.7488},{"period":"2024-08","value":4.536},{"period":"2024-09","value":4.424},{"period":"2024-10","value":4.0656},{"period":"2024-11","value":4.0992},{"period":"2024-12","value":4.0376},{"period":"2025-01","value":4.1664},{"period":"2025-02","value":4.4744},{"period":"2025-03","value":4.1608},{"period":"2025-04","value":4.256},{"period":"2025-05","value":4.2224},{"period":"2025-06","value":4.1048},{"period":"2025-07","value":3.976},{"period":"2025-08","value":3.612},{"period":"2025-09","value":3.5448},{"period":"2025-10","value":3.416},{"period":"2025-11","value":3.388},{"period":"2025-12","value":3.3824},{"period":"2026-01","value":3.4888},{"period":"2026-02","value":3.6176},{"period":"2026-03","value":3.8864},{"period":"2026-04","value":3.7688},{"period":"2026-05","value":4.2},{"period":"2026-06","value":4.452},{"period":"2026-07","value":4.4912},{"period":"2026-08","value":4.312}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}