{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:47:46+09:00","asset":{"id":"wb_coal_australian","name":"一般炭（豪州）","category":"エネルギー","unit":"$/mt","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank Pink Sheet: Coal, Australian","profile":"energy","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"世界銀行Pink Sheetの名目月平均。品位・受渡条件は原系列に従う。店頭価格・企業の調達契約価格とは異なる。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_coal_australian","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":147.1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:06+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_coal_australian@coal-req-20261025-r1","asset_id":"wb_coal_australian","model_version":"coal-req-20261025-r1","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","reference_value":126.25833333333333,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"89fe8dd56a940311138d6b0dd43172231bc39160d517d3ddf6a0d9534c5e93af","created_at":"2026-10-25T08:13:51+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_coal_australian@coal-req-20261025-r1","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":65.17335236169878,"real_growth":-0.09124313005518103,"nominal_growth":-0.06398042395683645,"explanation":"発電需要の縮小と低コスト輸出が重なり、高コスト設備の退出が遅れる。","change_from_current":-0.5569452592678533,"annual_from_current":-0.07835584877961876,"jpy_target":9776.002854254817,"cpi_only_target_price":169.68750825698902,"relative_to_cpi":-0.615921330738178,"real_jpy_target":7273.969897482331},{"forecast_id":"wb_coal_australian@coal-req-20261025-r1","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":101.38077034042031,"real_growth":-0.05019678950590545,"nominal_growth":-0.021702693191082534,"explanation":"再エネ・蓄電・ガスへの代替と国内増産が輸入を抑え、輸出削減を上回る。","change_from_current":-0.31080373663888294,"annual_from_current":-0.03662231310510322,"jpy_target":15207.115551063047,"cpi_only_target_price":169.68750825698902,"relative_to_cpi":-0.40254429225938804,"real_jpy_target":11315.064284972514},{"forecast_id":"wb_coal_australian@coal-req-20261025-r1","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":144.82967191488618,"real_growth":-0.015713091003016433,"nominal_growth":0.013815516266893146,"explanation":"公表2026→2031年実質スポット価格比を観測基準へ近似し、その後は実質維持。","change_from_current":-0.01543390948411838,"annual_from_current":-0.00155783870573023,"jpy_target":21724.450787232927,"cpi_only_target_price":169.68750825698902,"relative_to_cpi":-0.1464918460848399,"real_jpy_target":16164.377549960736},{"forecast_id":"wb_coal_australian@coal-req-20261025-r1","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":217.24450787232925,"real_growth":0.025010760731870807,"nominal_growth":0.05576108355382692,"explanation":"鉱山投資不足・鉄道港湾制約・高いガス価格により適合品位の余力が減る。","change_from_current":0.47684913577382226,"annual_from_current":0.03985578603713846,"jpy_target":32586.676180849387,"cpi_only_target_price":169.68750825698902,"relative_to_cpi":0.28026223087274005,"real_jpy_target":24246.5663249411},{"forecast_id":"wb_coal_australian@coal-req-20261025-r1","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":333.1082454042382,"real_growth":0.06976784934422775,"nominal_growth":0.10186088482455458,"explanation":"複数産地の障害と燃料代替が長引く高価格ストレス。2022年の瞬間高値の持続を意味しない。","change_from_current":1.2645020081865272,"annual_from_current":0.08537564472022718,"jpy_target":49966.236810635724,"cpi_only_target_price":169.68750825698902,"relative_to_cpi":0.9630687540048679,"real_jpy_target":37178.06836490969}],"expected_price":161.4850841850981,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"一般炭の公表実質スポット価格比を豪州6000kcal先物観測へ近似する。原料炭とは分離。","sources":["https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026","https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"倍率・配分・先物/スポットの近似・実質延長は未校正。貿易量は世界生産や不足率ではない。","resource_model":{"version":"coal-req-20261025-r1","as_of":"2026-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","macro_model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","source":{"title":"DISR 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kcal/kg gross air dried、PDF56ページが6322 kcal GAR。換算・同一視せず価格モデルから除外。","2028年区分はExcelがz、PDFの表がf。年と数量は対応するがExcel区分を保持。","PDFの国別原料炭にはその他アジア、Excelには韓国・モザンビークが載り、掲載範囲が異なる。","原料炭の実質注記はExcelでは基準年が抜けているため、PDF47ページの2026米ドルを確認。","世界銀行一般炭は2022年2月から6000 kcal/kg先物、それ以前の2015～2022年1月は同6000 kcal/kgスポット。原表の段差を保持。"],"owner_cash_lens":["供給者は価格上昇を恒久的な利益とせず、剥土・坑道・設備・鉄道港湾・閉山費用とロイヤルティを含め、安値でも維持投資後に現金が残るかを見る。","鉄鋼会社では原料炭安と鋼材売価、電力・鉄鉱石・在庫・契約改定の時間差を合わせる。原料炭単独の安値を利益増に置き換えない。","電力・都市ガスは調達契約・転嫁制度・効率・炭素費用で影響が異なる。発電量や輸入量の国全体を個社数量へ配賦しない。"],"history":{"url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-market-update-july-2023/prices","title":"IEA Coal Market Update July 2023 / Prices","finding":"2022年は高いガス価格による燃料転換、豪州の豪雨、インドネシアの一時禁輸、ロシア炭制裁と鉄道制約が重なった。高発熱量炭と低品位炭・地域の価格差を区別する。","source_date_conflict":"2023年7月公表のページに「September 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