{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:44:20+09:00","asset":{"id":"wb_coffee_arabica","name":"コーヒー（アラビカ）","category":"食品・農林水産","unit":"$/kg","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank Pink Sheet: Coffee, Arabica","profile":"food","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"世界銀行Pink Sheetの名目月平均。品位・受渡条件は原系列に従う。店頭価格・企業の調達契約価格とは異なる。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_coffee_arabica","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":7.26,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:07+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_coffee_arabica@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"wb_coffee_arabica","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":7.75,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"805ab2a96cfead55f22fec12716a14c6390790a4f2bf4e4aa217f3b4022317cc","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:33+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_coffee_arabica@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":7.293625753072025,"real_growth":-0.035,"nominal_growth":-0.00605,"explanation":"豊作と生産性改善が継続","change_from_current":0.004631646428653546,"annual_from_current":0.0004632805014992414,"jpy_target":1094.0438629608036,"cpi_only_target_price":10.415773393109353,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2997518784445534,"real_jpy_target":814.0384413082066},{"forecast_id":"wb_coffee_arabica@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":8.954572198704993,"real_growth":-0.015,"nominal_growth":0.014550000000000063,"explanation":"収量改善が需要増を上回る","change_from_current":0.23341214858195491,"annual_from_current":0.021250010699271238,"jpy_target":1343.1858298057489,"cpi_only_target_price":10.415773393109353,"relative_to_cpi":-0.14028734490047856,"real_jpy_target":999.4159615531936},{"forecast_id":"wb_coffee_arabica@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":10.415773393109353,"real_growth":0,"nominal_growth":0.030000000000000027,"explanation":"生産性と人口需要が均衡","change_from_current":0.4346795307313158,"annual_from_current":0.03684074364808598,"jpy_target":1562.366008966403,"cpi_only_target_price":10.415773393109353,"relative_to_cpi":0,"real_jpy_target":1162.5},{"forecast_id":"wb_coffee_arabica@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":13.333521233030481,"real_growth":0.025,"nominal_growth":0.055749999999999966,"explanation":"気候・肥料コストが上昇","change_from_current":0.8365731725937302,"annual_from_current":0.06282657795890301,"jpy_target":2000.0281849545722,"cpi_only_target_price":10.415773393109353,"relative_to_cpi":0.28012781478631155,"real_jpy_target":1488.1485846890873},{"forecast_id":"wb_coffee_arabica@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":17.792949657388455,"real_growth":0.055,"nominal_growth":0.0866499999999999,"explanation":"不作・輸出制約・物流費が重なる","change_from_current":1.4508195120369773,"annual_from_current":0.09401164238286142,"jpy_target":2668.942448608268,"cpi_only_target_price":10.415773393109353,"relative_to_cpi":0.7082696585123038,"real_jpy_target":1985.8634780205532}],"expected_price":11.132585584636885,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"収量改善・代替・作付け増が価格を抑え、気候・水・肥料・物流制約が押し上げる。農産物価格は加工食品の店頭価格や食品会社の原価そのものではない。","sources":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-10","value":5.46},{"period":"2011-11","value":5.4},{"period":"2011-12","value":5.22},{"period":"2012-01","value":5.23},{"period":"2012-02","value":4.94},{"period":"2012-03","value":4.44},{"period":"2012-04","value":4.22},{"period":"2012-05","value":4.07},{"period":"2012-06","value":3.72},{"period":"2012-07","value":4.2},{"period":"2012-08","value":3.85},{"period":"2012-09","value":3.95},{"period":"2012-10","value":3.82},{"period":"2012-11","value":3.53},{"period":"2012-12","value":3.37},{"period":"2013-01","value":3.47},{"period":"2013-02","value":3.3},{"period":"2013-03","value":3.3},{"period":"2013-04","value":3.3},{"period":"2013-05","value":3.24},{"period":"2013-06","value":3.05},{"period":"2013-07","value":3.05},{"period":"2013-08","value":2.98},{"period":"2013-09","value":2.92},{"period":"2013-10","value":2.84},{"period":"2013-11","value":2.69},{"period":"2013-12","value":2.78},{"period":"2014-01","value":2.93},{"period":"2014-02","value":3.83},{"period":"2014-03","value":4.72},{"period":"2014-04","value":4.93},{"period":"2014-05","value":4.72},{"period":"2014-06","value":4.36},{"period":"2014-07","value":4.34},{"period":"2014-08","value":4.7},{"period":"2014-09","value":4.64},{"period":"2014-10","value":4.97},{"period":"2014-11","value":4.62},{"period":"2014-12","value":4.34},{"period":"2015-01","value":4.19},{"period":"2015-02","value":3.94},{"period":"2015-03","value":3.54},{"period":"2015-04","value":3.62},{"period":"2015-05","value":3.49},{"period":"2015-06","value":3.52},{"period":"2015-07","value":3.41},{"period":"2015-08","value":3.46},{"period":"2015-09","value":3.22},{"period":"2015-10","value":3.38},{"period":"2015-11","value":3.26},{"period":"2015-12","value":3.28},{"period":"2016-01","value":3.2},{"period":"2016-02","value":3.26},{"period":"2016-03","value":3.47},{"period":"2016-04","value":3.4},{"period":"2016-05","value":3.42},{"period":"2016-06","value":3.65},{"period":"2016-07","value":3.79},{"period":"2016-08","value":3.69},{"period":"2016-09","value":3.89},{"period":"2016-10","value":3.95},{"period":"2016-11","value":4.06},{"period":"2016-12","value":3.57},{"period":"2017-01","value":3.72},{"period":"2017-02","value":3.67},{"period":"2017-03","value":3.53},{"period":"2017-04","value":3.43},{"period":"2017-05","value":3.31},{"period":"2017-06","value":3.16},{"period":"2017-07","value":3.3},{"period":"2017-08","value":3.3},{"period":"2017-09","value":3.23},{"period":"2017-10","value":3.1},{"period":"2017-11","value":3.11},{"period":"2017-12","value":3.03},{"period":"2018-01","value":3.06},{"period":"2018-02","value":3},{"period":"2018-03","value":2.98},{"period":"2018-04","value":2.96},{"period":"2018-05","value":2.99},{"period":"2018-06","value":2.95},{"period":"2018-07","value":2.88},{"period":"2018-08","value":2.76},{"period":"2018-09","value":2.67},{"period":"2018-10","value":3.03},{"period":"2018-11","value":3.02},{"period":"2018-12","value":2.8},{"period":"2019-01","value":2.83},{"period":"2019-02","value":2.83},{"period":"2019-03","value":2.73},{"period":"2019-04","value":2.67},{"period":"2019-05","value":2.66},{"period":"2019-06","value":2.86},{"period":"2019-07","value":2.99},{"period":"2019-08","value":2.78},{"period":"2019-09","value":2.84},{"period":"2019-10","value":2.8},{"period":"2019-11","value":3.11},{"period":"2019-12","value":3.46},{"period":"2020-01","value":3.13},{"period":"2020-02","value":2.99},{"period":"2020-03","value":3.27},{"period":"2020-04","value":3.41},{"period":"2020-05","value":3.3},{"period":"2020-06","value":3.12},{"period":"2020-07","value":3.24},{"period":"2020-08","value":3.6},{"period":"2020-09","value":3.67},{"period":"2020-10","value":3.35},{"period":"2020-11","value":3.32},{"period":"2020-12","value":3.48},{"period":"2021-01","value":3.54},{"period":"2021-02","value":3.67},{"period":"2021-03","value":3.68},{"period":"2021-04","value":3.72},{"period":"2021-05","value":4.11},{"period":"2021-06","value":4.24},{"period":"2021-07","value":4.5},{"period":"2021-08","value":4.77},{"period":"2021-09","value":4.97},{"period":"2021-10","value":5.31},{"period":"2021-11","value":5.71},{"period":"2021-12","value":5.91},{"period":"2022-01","value":5.98},{"period":"2022-02","value":6.17},{"period":"2022-03","value":5.7},{"period":"2022-04","value":5.85},{"period":"2022-05","value":5.74},{"period":"2022-06","value":6.03},{"period":"2022-07","value":5.64},{"period":"2022-08","value":5.92},{"period":"2022-09","value":5.9},{"period":"2022-10","value":5.29},{"period":"2022-11","value":4.72},{"period":"2022-12","value":4.63},{"period":"2023-01","value":4.56},{"period":"2023-02","value":5.06},{"period":"2023-03","value":4.9},{"period":"2023-04","value":5.06},{"period":"2023-05","value":4.85},{"period":"2023-06","value":4.57},{"period":"2023-07","value":4.27},{"period":"2023-08","value":4.12},{"period":"2023-09","value":4.05},{"period":"2023-10","value":4.05},{"period":"2023-11","value":4.35},{"period":"2023-12","value":4.65},{"period":"2024-01","value":4.47},{"period":"2024-02","value":4.6},{"period":"2024-03","value":4.61},{"period":"2024-04","value":5.27},{"period":"2024-05","value":5.08},{"period":"2024-06","value":5.48},{"period":"2024-07","value":5.67},{"period":"2024-08","value":5.76},{"period":"2024-09","value":6.12},{"period":"2024-10","value":6.1},{"period":"2024-11","value":6.72},{"period":"2024-12","value":7.57},{"period":"2025-01","value":7.81},{"period":"2025-02","value":9.05},{"period":"2025-03","value":8.92},{"period":"2025-04","value":8.64},{"period":"2025-05","value":8.77},{"period":"2025-06","value":8.01},{"period":"2025-07","value":7.18},{"period":"2025-08","value":8.08},{"period":"2025-09","value":8.83},{"period":"2025-10","value":8.9},{"period":"2025-11","value":9.05},{"period":"2025-12","value":8.4},{"period":"2026-01","value":8.02},{"period":"2026-02","value":7.08},{"period":"2026-03","value":7.37},{"period":"2026-04","value":7.3},{"period":"2026-05","value":6.95},{"period":"2026-06","value":6.79},{"period":"2026-07","value":7.91},{"period":"2026-08","value":7.97},{"period":"2026-09","value":7.26}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}