{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:44:15+09:00","asset":{"id":"wb_crude_oil_average","name":"原油（3油種平均）","category":"エネルギー","unit":"$/bbl","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank Pink Sheet: Crude oil, average","profile":"energy","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"世界銀行Pink Sheetの名目月平均。品位・受渡条件は原系列に従う。店頭価格・企業の調達契約価格とは異なる。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_crude_oil_average","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":102.3,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:06+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_crude_oil_average@crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","asset_id":"wb_crude_oil_average","model_version":"crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","reference_value":80.5,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"8c03f27d30a36ed2497fca59749a11406115799a7217f699d4aa9613c23d51a0","created_at":"2026-10-26T23:16:34+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_crude_oil_average@crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":72.11811730541875,"real_growth":-0.03974123736941215,"nominal_growth":-0.010933474490494532,"explanation":"電化・省エネで需要が弱く、低コスト国の増産が競合。米国の高コスト新規井を十分に必要としない。 2026年物価基準 53.66 USD/bbl（Brent 55）。","change_from_current":-0.29503306641819405,"annual_from_current":-0.03443512554429551,"jpy_target":10817.717595812812,"cpi_only_target_price":108.18964621229715,"relative_to_cpi":-0.33341017527773753,"real_jpy_target":8049.072133521319},{"forecast_id":"wb_crude_oil_average@crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":91.70524197899348,"real_growth":-0.016392506521938355,"nominal_growth":0.013115718282403543,"explanation":"新規供給と生産性改善が自然減を概ね補い、供給制約の上乗せが小さい。 2026年物価基準 68.23 USD/bbl（Brent 70）。","change_from_current":-0.10356557205284955,"annual_from_current":-0.010898689655137406,"jpy_target":13755.786296849023,"cpi_only_target_price":108.18964621229715,"relative_to_cpi":-0.15236582067157178,"real_jpy_target":10235.18271539077},{"forecast_id":"wb_crude_oil_average@crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":111.29236665256823,"real_growth":0.0028311132183413967,"nominal_growth":0.03291604661489167,"explanation":"新規開発が必要な需要が続く。採算目安66に、油種差5と産油国の供給管理等14を独自に置く。 2026年物価基準 82.81 USD/bbl（Brent 85）。","change_from_current":0.08790192231249505,"annual_from_current":0.008480509849417173,"jpy_target":16693.854997885235,"cpi_only_target_price":108.18964621229715,"relative_to_cpi":0.028678533934594075,"real_jpy_target":12421.293297260223},{"forecast_id":"wb_crude_oil_average@crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":144.68422486430455,"real_growth":0.02948926008341579,"nominal_growth":0.06037393788591827,"explanation":"鉱区条件の悪化・工事費上昇で実質開発費が増え、既存生産の減退を補う投資が遅れる。 2026年物価基準 107.65 USD/bbl（Brent 110）。","change_from_current":0.4143130485269262,"annual_from_current":0.03535592007332555,"jpy_target":21702.633729645684,"cpi_only_target_price":108.18964621229715,"relative_to_cpi":0.3373204361940074,"real_jpy_target":16148.144267042639},{"forecast_id":"wb_crude_oil_average@crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":191.43282636073545,"real_growth":0.05871649355013475,"nominal_growth":0.0904779883566389,"explanation":"長期の分断・制裁・開発制約が続き、高コスト供給と高い供給制約の上乗せが必要になる。 2026年物価基準 142.44 USD/bbl（Brent 145）。","change_from_current":0.8712886252271306,"annual_from_current":0.06482332882598651,"jpy_target":28714.923954110316,"cpi_only_target_price":108.18964621229715,"relative_to_cpi":0.7694190993571863,"real_jpy_target":21365.735624738027}],"expected_price":118.14993439630233,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"Brent個別モデルの5条件を油種差で3油種平均へつなぐ。","sources":["https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601","https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正。Brentモデルの初期仮説に依存。油種差は過去120か月の記述統計で、将来の差・5配分の確率は校正していない。","resource_model":{"schema_version":1,"version":"crude-grade-bridge-20261027-r1","kind":"crude_grade_bridge","analysis_on":"2026-10-27","review_due":"2026-11-25","brent_model_version":"brent-supply-cost-20261025-r1","legacy_generic_model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","targets":{"fut_wti":"wti","wb_crude_oil_wti":"wti","wb_crude_oil_dubai":"dubai","wb_crude_oil_average":"average"},"sample_start":"2016-01","sample_end":"2025-12","sample_months":120,"sample_reason":"米国の原油輸出禁止が2015年12月に解除された後の10暦年。2011～2015年のWTIの大きな割安（Cushingの在庫過剰）は輸出規制下の別の構造として除く。結果の価格を見て期間を選んだのではない。","dubai_over_brent_median":0.9814807758259345,"dubai_over_brent_p10":0.9516237441564355,"dubai_over_brent_p90":1.0031225777332982,"brent_minus_wti_median_nominal":4.1000000000000085,"method_note":"WTIはBrent個別モデルの内訳（WTI基準の採算＋供給制約の上乗せ＋Brent−WTI差）から油種差を引いた額。DubaiはBrentの同順位の実質価格に、2016～2025年の月次Dubai/Brent比の中央値を一度だけ掛ける。3油種平均は世界銀行の定義どおりBrent・WTI・Dubaiの単純平均。どれも共通CPI3%で一度だけ名目化する。","future_spread_calibrated":false,"scenario_probabilities_calibrated":false,"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"brent_scenarios_real":[55,70,85,110,145],"cases_real_2026":[{"brent":55,"wti":52,"dubai":53.9814426704264,"average":53.66048089014213,"brent_wti_difference":3,"condition":"電化・省エネで需要が弱く、低コスト国の増産が競合。米国の高コスト新規井を十分に必要としない。"},{"brent":70,"wti":66,"dubai":68.70365430781541,"average":68.23455143593847,"brent_wti_difference":4,"condition":"新規供給と生産性改善が自然減を概ね補い、供給制約の上乗せが小さい。"},{"brent":85,"wti":80,"dubai":83.42586594520444,"average":82.80862198173482,"brent_wti_difference":5,"condition":"新規開発が必要な需要が続く。採算目安66に、油種差5と産油国の供給管理等14を独自に置く。"},{"brent":110,"wti":105,"dubai":107.9628853408528,"average":107.6542951136176,"brent_wti_difference":5,"condition":"鉱区条件の悪化・工事費上昇で実質開発費が増え、既存生産の減退を補う投資が遅れる。"},{"brent":145,"wti":140,"dubai":142.3147124947605,"average":142.4382374982535,"brent_wti_difference":5,"condition":"長期の分断・制裁・開発制約が続き、高コスト供給と高い供給制約の上乗せが必要になる。"}],"dubai_stress_real_rank2":{"p10":80.88801825329702,"p90":85.26541910733035,"is_additional_probability_case":false},"diagnostic":"2016～2025年のBrent−WTI月次差の中央値は名目4.10ドルで、Brentモデルの油種差3～5ドル（2026年物価基準）と大きく矛盾しない。モデルの油種差は変更していない。","interpretation_flags":{"spread_is_forecast":false,"scenario_probabilities_calibrated":false,"legacy_generic_forecast_deleted":false,"automatic_stock_cash_application":false}}},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":{"market":"oil","edition":2023,"url":"energy.php?market=oil","kind":"公表時の条件による数量の比較資料。現在の価格予測へ自動反映しない。"},"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-10","value":99.8},{"period":"2011-11","value":105.4},{"period":"2011-12","value":104.2},{"period":"2012-01","value":107.1},{"period":"2012-02","value":112.7},{"period":"2012-03","value":117.8},{"period":"2012-04","value":113.7},{"period":"2012-05","value":104.1},{"period":"2012-06","value":90.7},{"period":"2012-07","value":96.8},{"period":"2012-08","value":105.3},{"period":"2012-09","value":106.3},{"period":"2012-10","value":103.4},{"period":"2012-11","value":101.2},{"period":"2012-12","value":101.2},{"period":"2013-01","value":105.1},{"period":"2013-02","value":107.6},{"period":"2013-03","value":102.5},{"period":"2013-04","value":98.9},{"period":"2013-05","value":99.4},{"period":"2013-06","value":99.7},{"period":"2013-07","value":105.3},{"period":"2013-08","value":108.2},{"period":"2013-09","value":108.8},{"period":"2013-10","value":105.4},{"period":"2013-11","value":102.6},{"period":"2013-12","value":105.5},{"period":"2014-01","value":102.1},{"period":"2014-02","value":104.8},{"period":"2014-03","value":104},{"period":"2014-04","value":104.9},{"period":"2014-05","value":105.7},{"period":"2014-06","value":108.4},{"period":"2014-07","value":105.2},{"period":"2014-08","value":100.1},{"period":"2014-09","value":95.9},{"period":"2014-10","value":86.1},{"period":"2014-11","value":77},{"period":"2014-12","value":60.7},{"period":"2015-01","value":47.1},{"period":"2015-02","value":54.8},{"period":"2015-03","value":52.8},{"period":"2015-04","value":57.5},{"period":"2015-05","value":62.5},{"period":"2015-06","value":61.3},{"period":"2015-07","value":54.3},{"period":"2015-08","value":45.7},{"period":"2015-09","value":46.3},{"period":"2015-10","value":47},{"period":"2015-11","value":43.1},{"period":"2015-12","value":36.6},{"period":"2016-01","value":29.8},{"period":"2016-02","value":31},{"period":"2016-03","value":37.3},{"period":"2016-04","value":40.8},{"period":"2016-05","value":45.9},{"period":"2016-06","value":47.7},{"period":"2016-07","value":44.1},{"period":"2016-08","value":44.9},{"period":"2016-09","value":45},{"period":"2016-10","value":49.3},{"period":"2016-11","value":45.3},{"period":"2016-12","value":52.6},{"period":"2017-01","value":53.6},{"period":"2017-02","value":54.4},{"period":"2017-03","value":50.9},{"period":"2017-04","value":52.2},{"period":"2017-05","value":49.9},{"period":"2017-06","value":46.2},{"period":"2017-07","value":47.7},{"period":"2017-08","value":49.9},{"period":"2017-09","value":53},{"period":"2017-10","value":54.9},{"period":"2017-11","value":59.9},{"period":"2017-12","value":61.2},{"period":"2018-01","value":66.2},{"period":"2018-02","value":63.5},{"period":"2018-03","value":64.2},{"period":"2018-04","value":68.8},{"period":"2018-05","value":73.4},{"period":"2018-06","value":72},{"period":"2018-07","value":72.7},{"period":"2018-08","value":71.1},{"period":"2018-09","value":75.4},{"period":"2018-10","value":76.7},{"period":"2018-11","value":62.3},{"period":"2018-12","value":54},{"period":"2019-01","value":56.6},{"period":"2019-02","value":61.1},{"period":"2019-03","value":63.8},{"period":"2019-04","value":68.6},{"period":"2019-05","value":66.8},{"period":"2019-06","value":59.8},{"period":"2019-07","value":61.5},{"period":"2019-08","value":57.7},{"period":"2019-09","value":60},{"period":"2019-10","value":57.3},{"period":"2019-11","value":60.4},{"period":"2019-12","value":63.4},{"period":"2020-01","value":61.6},{"period":"2020-02","value":53.3},{"period":"2020-03","value":32.2},{"period":"2020-04","value":21},{"period":"2020-05","value":30.4},{"period":"2020-06","value":39.5},{"period":"2020-07","value":42.1},{"period":"2020-08","value":43.4},{"period":"2020-09","value":40.6},{"period":"2020-10","value":39.9},{"period":"2020-11","value":42.3},{"period":"2020-12","value":48.7},{"period":"2021-01","value":53.6},{"period":"2021-02","value":60.5},{"period":"2021-03","value":63.8},{"period":"2021-04","value":63},{"period":"2021-05","value":66.4},{"period":"2021-06","value":71.8},{"period":"2021-07","value":73.3},{"period":"2021-08","value":68.9},{"period":"2021-09","value":72.8},{"period":"2021-10","value":82.1},{"period":"2021-11","value":79.9},{"period":"2021-12","value":72.9},{"period":"2022-01","value":83.9},{"period":"2022-02","value":93.5},{"period":"2022-03","value":112.4},{"period":"2022-04","value":103.4},{"period":"2022-05","value":110.1},{"period":"2022-06","value":116.8},{"period":"2022-07","value":105.1},{"period":"2022-08","value":96},{"period":"2022-09","value":88.2},{"period":"2022-10","value":90.3},{"period":"2022-11","value":87.4},{"period":"2022-12","value":78.1},{"period":"2023-01","value":80.4},{"period":"2023-02","value":80.3},{"period":"2023-03","value":76.5},{"period":"2023-04","value":82.5},{"period":"2023-05","value":74.1},{"period":"2023-06","value":73.3},{"period":"2023-07","value":79},{"period":"2023-08","value":84.7},{"period":"2023-09","value":92.2},{"period":"2023-10","value":89.1},{"period":"2023-11","value":81.4},{"period":"2023-12","value":75.7},{"period":"2024-01","value":77.7},{"period":"2024-02","value":80.5},{"period":"2024-03","value":83.5},{"period":"2024-04","value":88},{"period":"2024-05","value":81.4},{"period":"2024-06","value":81.2},{"period":"2024-07","value":83.3},{"period":"2024-08","value":78.1},{"period":"2024-09","value":72.4},{"period":"2024-10","value":74},{"period":"2024-11","value":72.3},{"period":"2024-12","value":72.3},{"period":"2025-01","value":78.2},{"period":"2025-02","value":73.8},{"period":"2025-03","value":70.7},{"period":"2025-04","value":65.9},{"period":"2025-05","value":62.7},{"period":"2025-06","value":69.1},{"period":"2025-07","value":69.2},{"period":"2025-08","value":66.7},{"period":"2025-09","value":66.5},{"period":"2025-10","value":63},{"period":"2025-11","value":62.3},{"period":"2025-12","value":60.9},{"period":"2026-01","value":63.7},{"period":"2026-02","value":68},{"period":"2026-03","value":95.6},{"period":"2026-04","value":103.9},{"period":"2026-05","value":100.4},{"period":"2026-06","value":81.7},{"period":"2026-07","value":79.8},{"period":"2026-08","value":84.4},{"period":"2026-09","value":102.3}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}