{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:44:12+09:00","asset":{"id":"wb_groundnut_oil","name":"落花生油","category":"食品・農林水産","unit":"$/mt","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank Pink Sheet: Groundnut oil","profile":"food","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"世界銀行Pink Sheetの名目月平均。品位・受渡条件は原系列に従う。店頭価格・企業の調達契約価格とは異なる。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_groundnut_oil","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":1860,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:07+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_groundnut_oil@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"wb_groundnut_oil","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":1753.5833333333333,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"7cdfed986219a5f2c1ca84ace548784397996084b8aca5da768d9e060fb1b0f7","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:33+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_groundnut_oil@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":1650.3200722784368,"real_growth":-0.035,"nominal_growth":-0.00605,"explanation":"豊作と生産性改善が継続","change_from_current":-0.11273114393632433,"annual_from_current":-0.011917045925225356,"jpy_target":247548.01084176553,"cpi_only_target_price":2356.764725926883,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2997518784445533,"real_jpy_target":184191.5152736408},{"forecast_id":"wb_groundnut_oil@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":2026.1404599714963,"real_growth":-0.015,"nominal_growth":0.014550000000000063,"explanation":"収量改善が需要増を上回る","change_from_current":0.08932282794166468,"annual_from_current":0.008612456935763735,"jpy_target":303921.06899572443,"cpi_only_target_price":2356.764725926883,"relative_to_cpi":-0.14028734490047867,"real_jpy_target":226136.66751574035},{"forecast_id":"wb_groundnut_oil@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":2356.764725926883,"real_growth":0,"nominal_growth":0.030000000000000027,"explanation":"生産性と人口需要が均衡","change_from_current":0.267077809638109,"annual_from_current":0.024010260901675906,"jpy_target":353514.7088890324,"cpi_only_target_price":2356.764725926883,"relative_to_cpi":0,"real_jpy_target":263037.5},{"forecast_id":"wb_groundnut_oil@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":3016.960078566241,"real_growth":0.025,"nominal_growth":0.055749999999999966,"explanation":"気候・肥料コストが上昇","change_from_current":0.6220215476162585,"annual_from_current":0.04967453107564901,"jpy_target":452544.0117849361,"cpi_only_target_price":2356.764725926883,"relative_to_cpi":0.28012781478631155,"real_jpy_target":336721.6200818544},{"forecast_id":"wb_groundnut_oil@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":4025.9896735529596,"real_growth":0.055,"nominal_growth":0.0866499999999999,"explanation":"不作・輸出制約・物流費が重なる","change_from_current":1.1645105771790107,"annual_from_current":0.08047369300350238,"jpy_target":603898.4510329439,"cpi_only_target_price":2356.764725926883,"relative_to_cpi":0.7082696585123038,"real_jpy_target":449338.9803009301}],"expected_price":2518.9569726614404,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"収量改善・代替・作付け増が価格を抑え、気候・水・肥料・物流制約が押し上げる。農産物価格は加工食品の店頭価格や食品会社の原価そのものではない。","sources":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-10","value":2116},{"period":"2011-11","value":2116},{"period":"2011-12","value":2116},{"period":"2012-01","value":2116},{"period":"2012-02","value":2116},{"period":"2012-03","value":2138},{"period":"2012-04","value":2275},{"period":"2012-05","value":2408},{"period":"2012-06","value":2425},{"period":"2012-07","value":2450},{"period":"2012-08","value":2469},{"period":"2012-09","value":2469},{"period":"2012-10","value":2469},{"period":"2012-11","value":2469},{"period":"2012-12","value":2502},{"period":"2013-01","value":2271},{"period":"2013-02","value":1822},{"period":"2013-03","value":1764},{"period":"2013-04","value":1764},{"period":"2013-05","value":1781},{"period":"2013-06","value":1808},{"period":"2013-07","value":1816},{"period":"2013-08","value":1808},{"period":"2013-09","value":1798},{"period":"2013-10","value":1765},{"period":"2013-11","value":1755},{"period":"2013-12","value":1698},{"period":"2014-01","value":1561},{"period":"2014-02","value":1410},{"period":"2014-03","value":1367},{"period":"2014-04","value":1367},{"period":"2014-05","value":1367},{"period":"2014-06","value":1367},{"period":"2014-07","value":1373},{"period":"2014-08","value":1389},{"period":"2014-09","value":1389},{"period":"2014-10","value":1389},{"period":"2014-11","value":1389},{"period":"2014-12","value":1373},{"period":"2015-01","value":1350},{"period":"2015-02","value":1345},{"period":"2015-03","value":1345},{"period":"2015-04","value":1345},{"period":"2015-05","value":1345},{"period":"2015-06","value":1366},{"period":"2015-07","value":1389},{"period":"2015-08","value":1392},{"period":"2015-09","value":1400},{"period":"2015-10","value":1400},{"period":"2015-11","value":1413},{"period":"2015-12","value":1446},{"period":"2016-01","value":1360},{"period":"2016-02","value":1317},{"period":"2016-03","value":1301},{"period":"2016-04","value":1314},{"period":"2016-05","value":1323},{"period":"2016-06","value":1366},{"period":"2016-07","value":1415},{"period":"2016-08","value":1433},{"period":"2016-09","value":1433},{"period":"2016-10","value":1433},{"period":"2016-11","value":1433},{"period":"2016-12","value":1439},{"period":"2017-01","value":1428},{"period":"2017-02","value":1360},{"period":"2017-03","value":1399},{"period":"2017-04","value":1421},{"period":"2017-05","value":1453},{"period":"2017-06","value":1463},{"period":"2017-07","value":1497},{"period":"2017-08","value":1510},{"period":"2017-09","value":1505},{"period":"2017-10","value":1481},{"period":"2017-11","value":1502},{"period":"2017-12","value":1510},{"period":"2018-01","value":1433},{"period":"2018-02","value":1433},{"period":"2018-03","value":1436},{"period":"2018-04","value":1444},{"period":"2018-05","value":1444},{"period":"2018-06","value":1462},{"period":"2018-07","value":1477},{"period":"2018-08","value":1477},{"period":"2018-09","value":1442},{"period":"2018-10","value":1432},{"period":"2018-11","value":1438},{"period":"2018-12","value":1435},{"period":"2019-01","value":1380},{"period":"2019-02","value":1370},{"period":"2019-03","value":1370},{"period":"2019-04","value":1378},{"period":"2019-05","value":1393},{"period":"2019-06","value":1392},{"period":"2019-07","value":1438},{"period":"2019-08","value":1458},{"period":"2019-09","value":1458},{"period":"2019-10","value":1459},{"period":"2019-11","value":1388},{"period":"2019-12","value":1405},{"period":"2020-01","value":1371},{"period":"2020-02","value":1393},{"period":"2020-03","value":1413},{"period":"2020-04","value":1527},{"period":"2020-05","value":1588},{"period":"2020-06","value":1713},{"period":"2020-07","value":1877},{"period":"2020-08","value":1877},{"period":"2020-09","value":1881},{"period":"2020-10","value":1878},{"period":"2020-11","value":1879},{"period":"2020-12","value":1977},{"period":"2021-01","value":1989},{"period":"2021-02","value":1993},{"period":"2021-03","value":2006},{"period":"2021-04","value":2021},{"period":"2021-05","value":2072},{"period":"2021-06","value":2079},{"period":"2021-07","value":2092},{"period":"2021-08","value":2102},{"period":"2021-09","value":2109},{"period":"2021-10","value":2134},{"period":"2021-11","value":2150},{"period":"2021-12","value":2154},{"period":"2022-01","value":2490},{"period":"2022-02","value":2473},{"period":"2022-03","value":2153},{"period":"2022-04","value":2145},{"period":"2022-05","value":2146},{"period":"2022-06","value":2146},{"period":"2022-07","value":2146},{"period":"2022-08","value":2146},{"period":"2022-09","value":2146},{"period":"2022-10","value":2146},{"period":"2022-11","value":2146},{"period":"2022-12","value":2146},{"period":"2023-01","value":1971},{"period":"2023-02","value":2043},{"period":"2023-03","value":2100},{"period":"2023-04","value":2088},{"period":"2023-05","value":2017},{"period":"2023-06","value":1971},{"period":"2023-07","value":2159},{"period":"2023-08","value":2174},{"period":"2023-09","value":2106},{"period":"2023-10","value":1954},{"period":"2023-11","value":1892},{"period":"2023-12","value":1940},{"period":"2024-01","value":1896},{"period":"2024-02","value":1809},{"period":"2024-03","value":1822},{"period":"2024-04","value":1820},{"period":"2024-05","value":1838},{"period":"2024-06","value":1810},{"period":"2024-07","value":1851},{"period":"2024-08","value":1758},{"period":"2024-09","value":1771},{"period":"2024-10","value":1750},{"period":"2024-11","value":1734},{"period":"2024-12","value":1688},{"period":"2025-01","value":1661},{"period":"2025-02","value":1664},{"period":"2025-03","value":1676},{"period":"2025-04","value":1679},{"period":"2025-05","value":1687},{"period":"2025-06","value":1697},{"period":"2025-07","value":1727},{"period":"2025-08","value":1665},{"period":"2025-09","value":1610},{"period":"2025-10","value":1628},{"period":"2025-11","value":1678},{"period":"2025-12","value":1621},{"period":"2026-01","value":1723},{"period":"2026-02","value":1800},{"period":"2026-03","value":1682},{"period":"2026-04","value":1906},{"period":"2026-05","value":1831},{"period":"2026-06","value":1790},{"period":"2026-07","value":1691},{"period":"2026-08","value":1833},{"period":"2026-09","value":1860}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}