{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:49:39+09:00","asset":{"id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian","name":"製材（マレーシア）","category":"食品・農林水産","unit":"$/cubic meter","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank Pink Sheet: Sawnwood, Malaysian","profile":"food","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"世界銀行Pink Sheetの名目月平均。品位・受渡条件は原系列に従う。店頭価格・企業の調達契約価格とは異なる。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":731.3,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:07+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":730.8083333333333,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"25c4715bb18085b9da98e7e8992db854923759de57abea57f990e16399a7bbac","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:34+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":687.7732232980186,"real_growth":-0.035,"nominal_growth":-0.00605,"explanation":"豊作と生産性改善が継続","change_from_current":-0.059519727474335204,"annual_from_current":-0.006131897224868288,"jpy_target":103165.98349470278,"cpi_only_target_price":982.1850314575386,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2997518784445534,"real_jpy_target":76762.07439506},{"forecast_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":844.3969011933674,"real_growth":-0.015,"nominal_growth":0.014550000000000063,"explanation":"収量改善が需要増を上回る","change_from_current":0.15465185449660535,"annual_from_current":0.014517804275623103,"jpy_target":126659.5351790051,"cpi_only_target_price":982.1850314575386,"relative_to_cpi":-0.14028734490047867,"real_jpy_target":94242.7758928284},{"forecast_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":982.1850314575386,"real_growth":0,"nominal_growth":0.030000000000000027,"explanation":"生産性と人口需要が均衡","change_from_current":0.3430671837242427,"annual_from_current":0.030005761183891533,"jpy_target":147327.75471863078,"cpi_only_target_price":982.1850314575386,"relative_to_cpi":0,"real_jpy_target":109621.24999999999},{"forecast_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":1257.3223780355634,"real_growth":0.025,"nominal_growth":0.055749999999999966,"explanation":"気候・肥料コストが上昇","change_from_current":0.7192976590121201,"annual_from_current":0.05582029365986085,"jpy_target":188598.3567053345,"cpi_only_target_price":982.1850314575386,"relative_to_cpi":0.2801278147863113,"real_jpy_target":140329.21121664395},{"forecast_id":"wb_sawnwood_malaysian@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":1677.8368882838658,"real_growth":0.055,"nominal_growth":0.0866499999999999,"explanation":"不作・輸出制約・物流費が重なる","change_from_current":1.2943209192996936,"annual_from_current":0.08679978228079621,"jpy_target":251675.53324257987,"cpi_only_target_price":982.1850314575386,"relative_to_cpi":0.7082696585123038,"real_jpy_target":187262.6553031919}],"expected_price":1049.7788795869901,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"収量改善・代替・作付け増が価格を抑え、気候・水・肥料・物流制約が押し上げる。農産物価格は加工食品の店頭価格や食品会社の原価そのものではない。","sources":["https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-10","value":954.2},{"period":"2011-11","value":892.8},{"period":"2011-12","value":888.4},{"period":"2012-01","value":877},{"period":"2012-02","value":885.1},{"period":"2012-03","value":886.5},{"period":"2012-04","value":896.4},{"period":"2012-05","value":892.2},{"period":"2012-06","value":862.8},{"period":"2012-07","value":857.9},{"period":"2012-08","value":856.7},{"period":"2012-09","value":878.2},{"period":"2012-10","value":873.4},{"period":"2012-11","value":870},{"period":"2012-12","value":879.9},{"period":"2013-01","value":870.6},{"period":"2013-02","value":842.9},{"period":"2013-03","value":822},{"period":"2013-04","value":834.4},{"period":"2013-05","value":833.2},{"period":"2013-06","value":844.6},{"period":"2013-07","value":827.7},{"period":"2013-08","value":845},{"period":"2013-09","value":865.1},{"period":"2013-10","value":877},{"period":"2013-11","value":878.2},{"period":"2013-12","value":892.8},{"period":"2014-01","value":897.8},{"period":"2014-02","value":902.2},{"period":"2014-03","value":905.7},{"period":"2014-04","value":912.5},{"period":"2014-05","value":918.1},{"period":"2014-06","value":921.3},{"period":"2014-07","value":930.6},{"period":"2014-08","value":910.3},{"period":"2014-09","value":889},{"period":"2014-10","value":875.8},{"period":"2014-11","value":859.9},{"period":"2014-12","value":852.2},{"period":"2015-01","value":826.7},{"period":"2015-02","value":835.2},{"period":"2015-03","value":816.6},{"period":"2015-04","value":814.2},{"period":"2015-05","value":842.5},{"period":"2015-06","value":847.7},{"period":"2015-07","value":848.1},{"period":"2015-08","value":850},{"period":"2015-09","value":836.7},{"period":"2015-10","value":835.8},{"period":"2015-11","value":828.6},{"period":"2015-12","value":816.8},{"period":"2016-01","value":785.6},{"period":"2016-02","value":780.1},{"period":"2016-03","value":775},{"period":"2016-04","value":780},{"period":"2016-05","value":792},{"period":"2016-06","value":774.7},{"period":"2016-07","value":717.1},{"period":"2016-08","value":714.8},{"period":"2016-09","value":716.6},{"period":"2016-10","value":672.9},{"period":"2016-11","value":677.3},{"period":"2016-12","value":680.3},{"period":"2017-01","value":671.8},{"period":"2017-02","value":680.5},{"period":"2017-03","value":672.5},{"period":"2017-04","value":688.4},{"period":"2017-05","value":704.5},{"period":"2017-06","value":697.4},{"period":"2017-07","value":707.8},{"period":"2017-08","value":706.6},{"period":"2017-09","value":725.3},{"period":"2017-10","value":719.5},{"period":"2017-11","value":720.5},{"period":"2017-12","value":730.5},{"period":"2018-01","value":751.9},{"period":"2018-02","value":762.2},{"period":"2018-03","value":761.4},{"period":"2018-04","value":767},{"period":"2018-05","value":734.6},{"period":"2018-06","value":724.3},{"period":"2018-07","value":717.8},{"period":"2018-08","value":701.8},{"period":"2018-09","value":711.4},{"period":"2018-10","value":709.2},{"period":"2018-11","value":702.8},{"period":"2018-12","value":691},{"period":"2019-01","value":702.1},{"period":"2019-02","value":708.8},{"period":"2019-03","value":718.1},{"period":"2019-04","value":710.6},{"period":"2019-05","value":700.1},{"period":"2019-06","value":691},{"period":"2019-07","value":679.9},{"period":"2019-08","value":662},{"period":"2019-09","value":672.9},{"period":"2019-10","value":688.6},{"period":"2019-11","value":702.4},{"period":"2019-12","value":714.2},{"period":"2020-01","value":712.6},{"period":"2020-02","value":706.4},{"period":"2020-03","value":675.3},{"period":"2020-04","value":676.7},{"period":"2020-05","value":670.5},{"period":"2020-06","value":682.4},{"period":"2020-07","value":690.2},{"period":"2020-08","value":715.6},{"period":"2020-09","value":707.4},{"period":"2020-10","value":707.1},{"period":"2020-11","value":719.9},{"period":"2020-12","value":732.4},{"period":"2021-01","value":743.6},{"period":"2021-02","value":755.3},{"period":"2021-03","value":755.5},{"period":"2021-04","value":754.4},{"period":"2021-05","value":767.3},{"period":"2021-06","value":764.7},{"period":"2021-07","value":752.4},{"period":"2021-08","value":752.1},{"period":"2021-09","value":748.7},{"period":"2021-10","value":746.4},{"period":"2021-11","value":733.5},{"period":"2021-12","value":725.6},{"period":"2022-01","value":739},{"period":"2022-02","value":738},{"period":"2022-03","value":718},{"period":"2022-04","value":705.8},{"period":"2022-05","value":678.8},{"period":"2022-06","value":671.8},{"period":"2022-07","value":653.6},{"period":"2022-08","value":653.4},{"period":"2022-09","value":617.6},{"period":"2022-10","value":614.9},{"period":"2022-11","value":639.7},{"period":"2022-12","value":663.6},{"period":"2023-01","value":665.7},{"period":"2023-02","value":659.2},{"period":"2023-03","value":661.4},{"period":"2023-04","value":678.4},{"period":"2023-05","value":680.4},{"period":"2023-06","value":688},{"period":"2023-07","value":702.1},{"period":"2023-08","value":692.4},{"period":"2023-09","value":675.9},{"period":"2023-10","value":662.9},{"period":"2023-11","value":676.6},{"period":"2023-12","value":690},{"period":"2024-01","value":692.3},{"period":"2024-02","value":688.4},{"period":"2024-03","value":692.7},{"period":"2024-04","value":682.7},{"period":"2024-05","value":688.4},{"period":"2024-06","value":692.8},{"period":"2024-07","value":700.8},{"period":"2024-08","value":704.8},{"period":"2024-09","value":720.2},{"period":"2024-10","value":711.7},{"period":"2024-11","value":694.5},{"period":"2024-12","value":689.2},{"period":"2025-01","value":673.2},{"period":"2025-02","value":683.1},{"period":"2025-03","value":703.6},{"period":"2025-04","value":716.8},{"period":"2025-05","value":728.4},{"period":"2025-06","value":738.6},{"period":"2025-07","value":736.2},{"period":"2025-08","value":732.6},{"period":"2025-09","value":736},{"period":"2025-10","value":727.7},{"period":"2025-11","value":715.3},{"period":"2025-12","value":729.6},{"period":"2026-01","value":736.9},{"period":"2026-02","value":740.6},{"period":"2026-03","value":726.9},{"period":"2026-04","value":732.5},{"period":"2026-05","value":735.3},{"period":"2026-06","value":726.8},{"period":"2026-07","value":728.9},{"period":"2026-08","value":737.9},{"period":"2026-09","value":731.3}],"exposures":[],"exposure_count":0},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}