{"schema_version":1,"as_of":"2026-11-03T00:43:28+09:00","asset":{"id":"wb_zinc","name":"亜鉛","category":"金属・鉱物","unit":"$/mt","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank Pink Sheet: Zinc","profile":"metal","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"世界銀行Pink Sheetの名目月平均。品位・受渡条件は原系列に従う。店頭価格・企業の調達契約価格とは異なる。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_zinc","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":4021,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:08+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_zinc@zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","asset_id":"wb_zinc","model_version":"zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","reference_value":3424.6666666666665,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"0b11cb2c77254b18fecc12824a30f46690db614ad8a611f594d27f5e427b867d","created_at":"2026-10-25T13:32:55+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_zinc@zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":1807.832656134933,"real_growth":-0.08920515259205453,"nominal_growth":-0.0618813071698161,"explanation":"建設・製造需要が弱く、鉱山・再生材と精錬の供給回復が重なる。原料・電力制約が緩む低価格条件。","change_from_current":-0.5504022242887509,"annual_from_current":-0.07700056940300071,"jpy_target":271174.8984202399,"cpi_only_target_price":4602.651864120666,"relative_to_cpi":-0.607219335829494,"real_jpy_target":201771.42718438894},{"forecast_id":"wb_zinc@zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":2711.7489842023992,"real_growth":-0.05152195881216637,"nominal_growth":-0.023067617576531307,"explanation":"鉱山の立上げと精錬の復旧が進み、需要増を上回る供給と在庫回復が価格を抑える。","change_from_current":-0.3256033364331262,"annual_from_current":-0.03871617643718761,"jpy_target":406762.3476303599,"cpi_only_target_price":4602.651864120666,"relative_to_cpi":-0.4108290037442409,"real_jpy_target":302657.1407765834},{"forecast_id":"wb_zinc@zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":3615.665312269866,"real_growth":-0.023843513934107663,"nominal_growth":0.005441180647869137,"explanation":"公表2031/2026実質比をWB起点へ移し、2031年以降の実質維持を置く独自の比較条件。","change_from_current":-0.1008044485775017,"annual_from_current":-0.010593746499059864,"jpy_target":542349.7968404798,"cpi_only_target_price":4602.651864120666,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2144386716589879,"real_jpy_target":403542.8543687779},{"forecast_id":"wb_zinc@zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":5061.931437177812,"real_growth":0.009555612999686103,"nominal_growth":0.039842281389676826,"explanation":"鉱石・電力制約や精錬所の停止が残る一方、建設・自動車・インフラ需要が回復する。","change_from_current":0.2588737719914975,"annual_from_current":0.02334374742647327,"jpy_target":759289.7155766718,"cpi_only_target_price":4602.651864120666,"relative_to_cpi":0.09978585967741682,"real_jpy_target":564959.996116289},{"forecast_id":"wb_zinc@zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":7592.897155766718,"real_growth":0.05132493119961801,"nominal_growth":0.08286467913560669,"explanation":"複数地域の鉱山・精錬停止が重なり、低在庫下で需要が強い。需給不足率をそのまま倍率にはしていない。","change_from_current":0.8883106579872466,"annual_from_current":0.0657902461640103,"jpy_target":1138934.5733650078,"cpi_only_target_price":4602.651864120666,"relative_to_cpi":0.6496787895161253,"real_jpy_target":847439.9941744336}],"expected_price":3941.075190374154,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"精製品需給と原料・電力制約を分け、DISR実質比の移植と2031年以降の実質維持を仮定する。","sources":["https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026.pdf","https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026-forecast-data.xlsx","https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-zinc.pdf","https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/ILZSG%20October%202026%20Press%20Release.pdf","https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/20251013_ILZSG%20October%202025%20Press%20Release.pdf","https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/20260423_ILZSG%20April%202026%20Press%20Release.pdf","https://hd.dowa.co.jp/ja/ir/news/auto_20260805510894/pdfFile.pdf","https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"倍率・主観配分・価格基準/観測期間の相対変化移植は未校正。最新の短期見通しと旧長期曲線は接合せず、在庫残差も未補正。","resource_model":{"version":"zinc-req-relative-20261025-r1","kind":"zinc_req_relative","asset_id":"wb_zinc","as_of":"2026-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","macro_model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","data_sha256":"40645d991b46fc00e4ce47d8aa18875b08c5256e35a3713bb8b6d21ff3d08402","sources":{"req_pdf":{"file":"resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026.pdf","url":"https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026.pdf","document_date":"2026-10-02","scope":"DISR REQ September 2026、117～120頁。情報締切9月20日","sha256":"eb9dd61c43654a4393aad58fe5d3fe6db7e4568e1e3e340cee84e66ba1bab6db"},"req_xlsx":{"file":"resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026-forecast-data.xlsx","url":"https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026-forecast-data.xlsx","document_date":"2026-10-02","scope":"Zinc H:N列、世界暦年と豪州会計年度","sha256":"010ee389273048f983441185100fddc4d4fd2a42df716e137c352a87673ca66f"},"usgs":{"file":"usgs-zinc-2026.pdf","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-zinc.pdf","document_date":"2026-02","scope":"USGS MCS2026 Zinc、国別鉱山生産は2ページ","sha256":"81f42c706a239392df03b26134cfffbafaaecc81193d7f3b1071f3eb68d40eca"},"ilzsg_latest":{"file":"ilzsg-october-2026.pdf","url":"https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/ILZSG%20October%202026%20Press%20Release.pdf","document_date":"2026-10-19","scope":"ILZSG 2026年10月、亜鉛は3・4ページ","sha256":"0bf20c18067509a449bbd757c5534f762a778ec6c376fe73f27e1a4e7f8f3536"},"ilzsg_oct2025":{"file":"ilzsg-oct2025.pdf","url":"https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/20251013_ILZSG%20October%202025%20Press%20Release.pdf","document_date":"2025-10-13","scope":"ILZSG 2025年10月、2026年見通しは4ページ","sha256":"64033372c8e6e23e0ec32e1119d1dc671b8174cf7d322dbce867359745352c3b"},"ilzsg_apr2026":{"file":"ilzsg-apr2026.pdf","url":"https://www.ilzsg.org/wp-content/uploads/3.PRESS%20RELEASES/20260423_ILZSG%20April%202026%20Press%20Release.pdf","document_date":"2026-04-23","scope":"ILZSG 2026年4月、2026年見通しは3ページ","sha256":"dbc8910557f84934767f3d6dc8ece2bf4987d12c8ec14e5994e2109dc815c326"},"dowa":{"file":"dowa-2026q1.pdf","url":"https://hd.dowa.co.jp/ja/ir/news/auto_20260805510894/pdfFile.pdf","document_date":"2026-08-07","scope":"DOWA 2026年度第1四半期補足資料、7・9・12ページ","sha256":"d9c800d9cef14514ca075ea097664dcded8ea1d67c4db2e3948908c56491eaa9"},"worldbank":{"file":"monthly.xlsx","url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","document_date":"2026-10","scope":"World Bank Pink Sheet Zincの定義","sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"}},"worldbank_definition":"Zinc (LME), high grade, minimum 99.95% purity, settlement price beginning April 1990; previously special high grade, minimum 99.995%, cash prices","source_price_base_year":2026,"source_price_anchor_year":2031,"own_real_hold_to_year":2036,"relative_basis_transport_multiplier":1,"relative_basis_transport_calibrated":false,"method_note":"DISR同一系列の2031/2026実質価格比を、WB同一系列の分析日時点の12か月平均へ移す独自近似。価格算定/観測期間の差が相対変化を変えないと仮定し、2031年以降は実質維持。需給差からの価格式ではない。","cases":[{"multiplier":0.5,"condition":"建設・製造需要が弱く、鉱山・再生材と精錬の供給回復が重なる。原料・電力制約が緩む低価格条件。"},{"multiplier":0.75,"condition":"鉱山の立上げと精錬の復旧が進み、需要増を上回る供給と在庫回復が価格を抑える。"},{"multiplier":1,"condition":"公表2031/2026実質比をWB起点へ移し、2031年以降の実質維持を置く独自の比較条件。"},{"multiplier":1.4,"condition":"鉱石・電力制約や精錬所の停止が残る一方、建設・自動車・インフラ需要が回復する。"},{"multiplier":2.1,"condition":"複数地域の鉱山・精錬停止が重なり、低在庫下で需要が強い。需給不足率をそのまま倍率にはしていない。"}],"power_example":{"electricity_kwh_per_tonne":4000,"real_2026_jpy_kwh":[5,10,20],"is_observed_company_cost":false,"other_costs":null,"is_profit_or_cost_floor":false},"company":{"ticker":"5714","name":"DOWAホールディングス","kind":"dowa_recycler","version":"dowa-zinc-20261025-r1","as_of":"2026-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-10","actual_period_start":"2026-04-01","actual_period_end":"2026-06-30","unit":"oku JPY, truncated as reported","headline":"亜鉛価格だけでなく原料条件・在庫評価・鉱山投資の回収を確かめる","actual_income":{"previous_revenue":1601,"current_revenue":2533,"previous_operating":64,"current_operating":247,"previous_ordinary":86,"current_ordinary":325,"previous_parent_net":64,"current_parent_net":234},"bridge":{"page":7,"operating_components":{"initiatives_and_sales":40,"metal_quantity":-3,"metal_price_smelting":78,"fx_smelting":20,"other_segments_price_fx":27,"raw_material_terms":-10,"electricity":3,"inventory_valuation":57,"costs_depreciation_sga_rd":-35},"reported_operating_delta":182,"reported_nonoperating_delta":56,"reported_ordinary_delta":239,"inventory_components":{"lower_of_cost_or_market":12,"hedge":45},"mine_related_in_nonoperating":61},"sensitivity":{"page":12,"fiscal_start":"2026-04-01","fiscal_end":"2027-03-31","profit_metric":"operating_profit_per_year","input_step_usd_t":100,"magnitude_oku_jpy":4.6,"table_zinc_assumption_usd_t":3100,"q1_actual_usd_t":3463,"q2_onward_assumption_usd_t":3100,"full_year_blended_usd_t":3191,"table_fx_jpy_usd":155,"full_year_blended_fx":156.1,"inventory_valuation_included":null,"signed_long_term_slope":null},"assessment":["当期増益には複数金属の価格・為替、在庫評価、鉱山関連の損益が含まれる。営業利益・経常利益・実際の現金を分け、亜鉛だけの利益率とはしない。","製錬の原料購入条件が悪化する一方、当期の電力代は減少した。金属価格が上がっても、鉱山と受託製錬では利益の取り分が同じではない。","銀価格の低下に伴う期末ヘッジ評価の利益も開示されている。価格の上げ下げだけで継続利益・現金を決めず、契約と評価/決済の時点を確かめる。","資源循環・処理技術や許認可、安定した原料集荷が競争力につながるかを見た上で、設備維持・環境対応・鉱山権益更新・閉山負担と借入返済後に現金が残るかを確認する。"],"interpretation_flags":{"owner_earnings":null,"maintenance_cash_capex":null,"actual_q1_operating_cash_flow":null,"terminal_2036_profit_effect":null,"pure_zinc_price_effect":null,"quarter_annualized":false,"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"financial_baseline_written":false},"source_id":"dowa","source":{"file":"dowa-2026q1.pdf","url":"https://hd.dowa.co.jp/ja/ir/news/auto_20260805510894/pdfFile.pdf","document_date":"2026-08-07","scope":"DOWA 2026年度第1四半期補足資料、7・9・12ページ","sha256":"d9c800d9cef14514ca075ea097664dcded8ea1d67c4db2e3948908c56491eaa9"},"derived":{"operating_components_sum":177,"operating_bridge_residual":5,"ordinary_bridge_residual":1,"reported_operating_delta_minus_endpoints":-1}},"source_issues":["精製品の生産には二次材が含まれる。鉱山量と精製量を足さず、鉱山−消費を精製品不足としない。","ILZSG 2026年10月の短期見通しとDISR 9月の2031年曲線は別の公表/推計。ILZSGの2026・2027だけをDISR長期曲線へ接いで一つの予測にしない。","DISRの2030年は、生産−消費と在庫前年差に未説明の差がある。原数値を保持し、在庫を補正・外挿して価格を算定しない。","ILZSG公表の不足/余剰と、丸めた百万tの生産−需要の計算には差がある。生産や需要を逆算して合わせない。","USGS国別はZn含有量。豪州の鉱石/精鉱輸出の総重量と金属含有量を区別し、世界暦年と豪州会計年度でシェアを作らない。","ボリビアの埋蔵量NAをゼロで補わない。豪州の広い埋蔵量とJORC等の範囲を分け、埋蔵量÷年産を枯渇年にしない。","世界2036年の需給・国別精錬シェア/数量・TC・価格数量反応は未推定。価格5条件の配分と相対価格比の移植は未校正。"],"interpretation_flags":{"world_output_2036":null,"country_output_2036":null,"country_refining_shares":null,"reserve_exhaustion_year":null,"future_tc_usd_dmt":null,"owner_earnings":null,"probabilities_calibrated":false,"quantity_price_equation_calibrated":false,"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"source_future_nominal_used":false},"source_curve":{"sheet":"Zinc","columns":"H:N","world_headers":[2025,"2026 f","2027 f","2028 z","2029 z","2030 z","2031 z"],"australia_headers":["2024–25","2025–26","2026–27 f","2027–28 f","2028–29 z","2029–30 z","2030–31 z"],"world_rows":{"mine":{"row":11,"label":"– mine","unit":"kt","values":[12496.723,12463.2566473438,12747.4430809166,13021.3993710517,13214.9538124495,13411.7569202627,13763.0331908383]},"refined":{"row":12,"label":"– refined","unit":"kt","values":[13788.936,13732.766855632,14100.830999679,14340.3150988856,14697.578213001,14742.6756251154,14730.9913076819]},"consumption":{"row":13,"label":"Consumption","unit":"kt","values":[13809.746,13743.0647427268,14027.8575526466,14302.5393891204,14665.4869684605,14607.2225776296,14568.416483273]},"closing_stocks":{"row":14,"label":"Closing stocks ","unit":"kt","values":[714.566666666667,704.268779571857,777.242226604201,815.017936369462,847.109180909928,787.109180909928,949.684005318738]},"stock_weeks":{"row":15,"label":"– weeks of consumption","unit":null,"values":[2.69066981149883,2.66476053364428,2.88116668078036,2.96317538712393,3.0036286897291,2.80201641275724,3.38976911686147]},"nominal_usd_t":{"row":17,"label":"– nominal","unit":"US$/t","values":[2867.03016494619,3451.68585638961,3167.23793294489,3089.78043826014,3009.16816398795,2997.48625483086,2990.6004028009]},"nominal_cents_lb":{"row":18,"label":null,"unit":"USc/lb","values":[130.046455395768,156.566023005761,143.663666887939,140.150249850774,136.49373424844,135.963851132207,135.651513766586]},"real_usd_t":{"row":19,"label":"– real  a","unit":"US$/t","values":[2915.16059029579,3451.8673017164,3100.57555843846,2989.18033961819,2848.97118800355,2777.25591135082,2711.65346279324]},"real_cents_lb":{"row":20,"label":null,"unit":"USc/lb","values":[132.229617362438,156.574253237129,140.639908847713,135.587100707523,129.227313006484,125.974358907695,122.998678356962]}},"australia_rows":{"mine":{"row":28,"label":"Mine output","unit":"kt","values":[1114.73519281161,1126.17925,1117.232,1161.472,1156.5345,1118.722,1032.725]},"refined":{"row":29,"label":"Refined output","unit":"kt","values":[428.832707841904,458.6625,462.8,460,454.5,454.5,454.5]},"ore_export_gross":{"row":31,"label":"– ore and conc.  b ","unit":"kt","values":[1862.25572,1491.82324,1915.32534507532,1977.84506213043,1967.60193795784,1902.36941033239,1799.53728722951]},"refined_export":{"row":32,"label":"– refined","unit":"kt","values":[389.26999,408.31232,439.66,437.0275,434.0475,434.0475,431.775]},"export_metal_content":{"row":33,"label":"– total metallic content","unit":"kt","values":[1264.08768510948,1101.48883122942,1327.8456,1354.2051,1346.4751,1316.2251,1266.266701]}},"real_note":"In current calendar year US dollars","ore_export_note":"Quantities refer to gross weight of all ores and concentrates.","usgs_unit":"kt Zn content of concentrates and direct shipping ores","usgs_countries":[{"country":"United States","name":"米国","mine_2024":759,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":670,"reserves":9300,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.05153846153846154},{"country":"Australia","name":"豪州","mine_2024":1100,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":1100,"reserves":64000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.08461538461538462},{"country":"Bolivia","name":"ボリビア","mine_2024":512,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":500,"reserves":null,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.038461538461538464},{"country":"China","name":"中国","mine_2024":4000,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":4100,"reserves":60000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.3153846153846154},{"country":"India","name":"インド","mine_2024":870,"mine_2024_estimated":true,"mine_2025_estimate":870,"reserves":10000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.06692307692307692},{"country":"Kazakhstan","name":"カザフスタン","mine_2024":380,"mine_2024_estimated":true,"mine_2025_estimate":360,"reserves":7400,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.027692307692307693},{"country":"Mexico","name":"メキシコ","mine_2024":773,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":780,"reserves":14000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.06},{"country":"Peru","name":"ペルー","mine_2024":1270,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":1500,"reserves":18000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.11538461538461539},{"country":"Russia","name":"ロシア","mine_2024":310,"mine_2024_estimated":true,"mine_2025_estimate":430,"reserves":29000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.03307692307692308},{"country":"Sweden","name":"スウェーデン","mine_2024":239,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":230,"reserves":4100,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.01769230769230769},{"country":"Other countries","name":"その他の国（複数国）","mine_2024":1730,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":2000,"reserves":25000,"share_of_reported_world_2025":0.15384615384615385},{"country":"World total (rounded)","name":"世界（丸め値）","mine_2024":11900,"mine_2024_estimated":false,"mine_2025_estimate":13000,"reserves":240000}],"australia_jorc_reserves_kt":19000,"ilzsg_latest":{"published_on":"2026-10-19","years":[2026,2027],"reported_unit":"million tonnes, rounded as published","mine":[12.4,12.78],"refined":[13.93,14.21],"usage":[14.02,14.19],"reported_balance_kt":[-88,25],"source_pages":[3,4]},"ilzsg_2026_balance_vintages":[{"published_on":"2025-10-13","source_id":"ilzsg_oct2025","page":4,"reported_balance_kt":271},{"published_on":"2026-04-23","source_id":"ilzsg_apr2026","page":3,"reported_balance_kt":-19},{"published_on":"2026-10-19","source_id":"ilzsg_latest","page":4,"reported_balance_kt":-88}]},"reference_value_used":3424.6666666666665,"derived_cases":[{"multiplier":0.5,"condition":"建設・製造需要が弱く、鉱山・再生材と精錬の供給回復が重なる。原料・電力制約が緩む低価格条件。","label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"real_2026_usd_t":1345.1428478959263,"nominal_2036_usd_t":1807.832656134933},{"multiplier":0.75,"condition":"鉱山の立上げと精錬の復旧が進み、需要増を上回る供給と在庫回復が価格を抑える。","label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"real_2026_usd_t":2017.7142718438895,"nominal_2036_usd_t":2711.7489842023992},{"multiplier":1,"condition":"公表2031/2026実質比をWB起点へ移し、2031年以降の実質維持を置く独自の比較条件。","label":"中立","weight":0.4,"real_2026_usd_t":2690.2856957918525,"nominal_2036_usd_t":3615.665312269866},{"multiplier":1.4,"condition":"鉱石・電力制約や精錬所の停止が残る一方、建設・自動車・インフラ需要が回復する。","label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"real_2026_usd_t":3766.399974108593,"nominal_2036_usd_t":5061.931437177812},{"multiplier":2.1,"condition":"複数地域の鉱山・精錬停止が重なり、低在庫下で需要が強い。需給不足率をそのまま倍率にはしていない。","label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"real_2026_usd_t":5649.59996116289,"nominal_2036_usd_t":7592.897155766718}],"power_costs":[{"real_2026_jpy_kwh":5,"nominal_2036_jpy_kwh":6.719853802006034,"nominal_2036_power_only_jpy_t":26879.415208024133},{"real_2026_jpy_kwh":10,"nominal_2036_jpy_kwh":13.439707604012067,"nominal_2036_power_only_jpy_t":53758.830416048266},{"real_2026_jpy_kwh":20,"nominal_2036_jpy_kwh":26.879415208024135,"nominal_2036_power_only_jpy_t":107517.66083209653}],"derived":{"real_2031_2026_price_ratio":0.785561328341012,"refined_balance_kt":[-20.80999999999949,-10.29788709479908,72.97344703240014,37.77570976519928,32.09124454049925,135.4530474858002,162.57482440889908],"stock_flow_residual_kt":[null,-1.0913936421275139e-11,-5.60476109967567e-11,6.161826604511589e-11,-3.319655661471188e-11,-195.4530474858002,-8.913048077374697e-11],"stock_flow_closed":false,"unexplained_stock_flow_years":[2030],"latest_rounded_balance_kt":[-89.99999999999986,20.00000000000135],"latest_balance_rounding_residual_kt":[1.999999999999858,4.99999999999865],"same_target_year_revision_kt":-359,"revision_is_final_forecast_error":false,"country_sum_residuals":{"mine_2024":43,"mine_2025_estimate":-460},"country_reserves_total_reconciled":false,"req_minus_usgs_world_mine_2025_kt":-503.27700000000004,"world_quantity_extended_to_2036":false}}},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"},"construction_price_row":null,"customs_import":null,"customs_coking":null,"copper_forecast_check":null,"nickel_forecast_check":null,"agriculture_reference":null,"energy_reference":null,"market_notes":[],"research":null,"history_check":null,"history":[{"period":"2011-10","value":1871},{"period":"2011-11","value":1935},{"period":"2011-12","value":1905},{"period":"2012-01","value":1982},{"period":"2012-02","value":2058},{"period":"2012-03","value":2036},{"period":"2012-04","value":2002},{"period":"2012-05","value":1936},{"period":"2012-06","value":1859},{"period":"2012-07","value":1848},{"period":"2012-08","value":1818},{"period":"2012-09","value":2010},{"period":"2012-10","value":1904},{"period":"2012-11","value":1912},{"period":"2012-12","value":2040},{"period":"2013-01","value":2032},{"period":"2013-02","value":2129},{"period":"2013-03","value":1926},{"period":"2013-04","value":1856},{"period":"2013-05","value":1832},{"period":"2013-06","value":1839},{"period":"2013-07","value":1838},{"period":"2013-08","value":1899},{"period":"2013-09","value":1847},{"period":"2013-10","value":1885},{"period":"2013-11","value":1866},{"period":"2013-12","value":1975},{"period":"2014-01","value":2037},{"period":"2014-02","value":2035},{"period":"2014-03","value":2008},{"period":"2014-04","value":2027},{"period":"2014-05","value":2059},{"period":"2014-06","value":2128},{"period":"2014-07","value":2311},{"period":"2014-08","value":2327},{"period":"2014-09","value":2295},{"period":"2014-10","value":2277},{"period":"2014-11","value":2253},{"period":"2014-12","value":2176},{"period":"2015-01","value":2113},{"period":"2015-02","value":2098},{"period":"2015-03","value":2029},{"period":"2015-04","value":2213},{"period":"2015-05","value":2282},{"period":"2015-06","value":2082},{"period":"2015-07","value":2001},{"period":"2015-08","value":1808},{"period":"2015-09","value":1720},{"period":"2015-10","value":1724},{"period":"2015-11","value":1583},{"period":"2015-12","value":1528},{"period":"2016-01","value":1520},{"period":"2016-02","value":1710},{"period":"2016-03","value":1802},{"period":"2016-04","value":1855},{"period":"2016-05","value":1869},{"period":"2016-06","value":2026},{"period":"2016-07","value":2183},{"period":"2016-08","value":2279},{"period":"2016-09","value":2292},{"period":"2016-10","value":2312},{"period":"2016-11","value":2566},{"period":"2016-12","value":2665},{"period":"2017-01","value":2715},{"period":"2017-02","value":2846},{"period":"2017-03","value":2777},{"period":"2017-04","value":2615},{"period":"2017-05","value":2590},{"period":"2017-06","value":2573},{"period":"2017-07","value":2787},{"period":"2017-08","value":2981},{"period":"2017-09","value":3117},{"period":"2017-10","value":3265},{"period":"2017-11","value":3229},{"period":"2017-12","value":3196},{"period":"2018-01","value":3442},{"period":"2018-02","value":3533},{"period":"2018-03","value":3269},{"period":"2018-04","value":3188},{"period":"2018-05","value":3060},{"period":"2018-06","value":3089},{"period":"2018-07","value":2656},{"period":"2018-08","value":2512},{"period":"2018-09","value":2435},{"period":"2018-10","value":2674},{"period":"2018-11","value":2596},{"period":"2018-12","value":2616},{"period":"2019-01","value":2570},{"period":"2019-02","value":2707},{"period":"2019-03","value":2851},{"period":"2019-04","value":2933},{"period":"2019-05","value":2743},{"period":"2019-06","value":2601},{"period":"2019-07","value":2447},{"period":"2019-08","value":2273},{"period":"2019-09","value":2332},{"period":"2019-10","value":2452},{"period":"2019-11","value":2425},{"period":"2019-12","value":2273},{"period":"2020-01","value":2354},{"period":"2020-02","value":2113},{"period":"2020-03","value":1904},{"period":"2020-04","value":1903},{"period":"2020-05","value":1975},{"period":"2020-06","value":2026},{"period":"2020-07","value":2177},{"period":"2020-08","value":2410},{"period":"2020-09","value":2442},{"period":"2020-10","value":2441},{"period":"2020-11","value":2672},{"period":"2020-12","value":2780},{"period":"2021-01","value":2705},{"period":"2021-02","value":2745},{"period":"2021-03","value":2792},{"period":"2021-04","value":2829},{"period":"2021-05","value":2966},{"period":"2021-06","value":2952},{"period":"2021-07","value":2948},{"period":"2021-08","value":2988},{"period":"2021-09","value":3036},{"period":"2021-10","value":3360},{"period":"2021-11","value":3311},{"period":"2021-12","value":3399},{"period":"2022-01","value":3599},{"period":"2022-02","value":3620},{"period":"2022-03","value":3962},{"period":"2022-04","value":4360},{"period":"2022-05","value":3751},{"period":"2022-06","value":3630},{"period":"2022-07","value":3105},{"period":"2022-08","value":3588},{"period":"2022-09","value":3125},{"period":"2022-10","value":2967},{"period":"2022-11","value":2939},{"period":"2022-12","value":3129},{"period":"2023-01","value":3310},{"period":"2023-02","value":3134},{"period":"2023-03","value":2967},{"period":"2023-04","value":2768},{"period":"2023-05","value":2476},{"period":"2023-06","value":2375},{"period":"2023-07","value":2405},{"period":"2023-08","value":2407},{"period":"2023-09","value":2496},{"period":"2023-10","value":2449},{"period":"2023-11","value":2544},{"period":"2023-12","value":2502},{"period":"2024-01","value":2515},{"period":"2024-02","value":2360},{"period":"2024-03","value":2461},{"period":"2024-04","value":2733},{"period":"2024-05","value":2959},{"period":"2024-06","value":2809},{"period":"2024-07","value":2777},{"period":"2024-08","value":2714},{"period":"2024-09","value":2837},{"period":"2024-10","value":3106},{"period":"2024-11","value":3004},{"period":"2024-12","value":3034},{"period":"2025-01","value":2819},{"period":"2025-02","value":2800},{"period":"2025-03","value":2889},{"period":"2025-04","value":2622},{"period":"2025-05","value":2644},{"period":"2025-06","value":2655},{"period":"2025-07","value":2763},{"period":"2025-08","value":2789},{"period":"2025-09","value":2933},{"period":"2025-10","value":3152},{"period":"2025-11","value":3177},{"period":"2025-12","value":3168},{"period":"2026-01","value":3213},{"period":"2026-02","value":3324},{"period":"2026-03","value":3182},{"period":"2026-04","value":3364},{"period":"2026-05","value":3482},{"period":"2026-06","value":3539},{"period":"2026-07","value":3599},{"period":"2026-08","value":3875},{"period":"2026-09","value":4021}],"exposures":[{"ticker":"5714","asset_id":"wb_zinc","name":"DOWAホールディングス","kind":"documented","direction":"当年度の亜鉛価格感応度を開示。原料・在庫/ヘッジ・鉱山損益と分ける","evidence":"2026年度Q1資料の感応度表は亜鉛±100 USD/tに対する年間営業利益の影響規模4.6億円。表の前提3100 USD/tと通期平均欄3191は別。金属価格差・原料購入条件・在庫/ヘッジ評価を分け、税引後現金や2036年利益へ外挿しない。","evidence_url":"https://hd.dowa.co.jp/ja/ir/news/auto_20260805510894/pdfFile.pdf","updated_at":"2026-08-07"}],"exposure_count":1},"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}