{"schema_version":1,"market_id":"maize","market":{"name":"トウモロコシ（米国#2イエロー・FOB）","asset_id":"wb_maize","source_header":"Maize","workbook_column":31,"unit":"$/mt","definition_fragment":"Maize (U.S.), no. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports","definition_note":"米国#2イエロー、米ガルフ港FOB。日本の輸入着値・農家手取りや先物期近とは同一でない。","source_monthly_cells":792,"first_complete_year":1960,"last_complete_year":2025,"evaluation":{"records":[{"origin_year":1979,"target_year":1989,"training_count":10,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979}],"last_training_target_year":1979,"boundary_ratios":[0.9452703533392878,0.9906605079134216,1.1587802088051675,1.2813248646607969],"representative_ratios":[0.8854292729707689,0.9677348034049844,1.1079572321975115,1.255109478919764,1.3915325890166426],"median_ratio":1.1079572321975115,"actual_ratio":0.5651282909675942,"log_actual_ratio":-0.5707025099512885,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.30417889736642234,"winkler_80_log":5.448360954738361,"median_absolute_log_error":0.6732204984316973,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5707025099512885,"bin_index":0,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1980,"target_year":1990,"training_count":11,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980}],"last_training_target_year":1980,"boundary_ratios":[0.9591082543293742,0.9996917889984588,1.120073899881332,1.2580448214693074],"representative_ratios":[0.8918866671470056,0.9699035369802155,1.09923216051864,1.2543767140494486,1.3788334541355376],"median_ratio":1.09923216051864,"actual_ratio":0.550198384526769,"log_actual_ratio":-0.5974763666523366,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.2713101147495071,"winkler_80_log":5.8285605017021895,"median_absolute_log_error":0.6920882668240296,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5974763666523366,"bin_index":0,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1981,"target_year":1991,"training_count":12,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981}],"last_training_target_year":1981,"boundary_ratios":[0.960182353452672,0.9980106284507835,1.1190761609752373,1.2576775285537252],"representative_ratios":[0.8983911547962279,0.9753201890115933,1.0539650673073606,1.226285864358504,1.3662502116366888],"median_ratio":1.0539650673073606,"actual_ratio":0.5483426722196749,"log_actual_ratio":-0.6008548731921447,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.26989884986120355,"winkler_80_log":5.872126971327055,"median_absolute_log_error":0.6534141797899311,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.6008548731921447,"bin_index":0,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1982,"target_year":1992,"training_count":13,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982}],"last_training_target_year":1982,"boundary_ratios":[0.8702149165534548,0.9862444136773257,1.11807931083454,1.2573103428712744],"representative_ratios":[0.8412797475603165,0.9634118734723663,1.0105621023497813,1.1988240887148698,1.3537818038855098],"median_ratio":1.0105621023497813,"actual_ratio":0.6560549015628263,"log_actual_ratio":-0.421510802133231,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.3679898581581597,"winkler_80_log":3.192947206297365,"median_absolute_log_error":0.4320175151571109,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.421510802133231,"bin_index":0,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1983,"target_year":1993,"training_count":14,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983}],"last_training_target_year":1983,"boundary_ratios":[0.835306910635206,0.9688185633447306,1.117083348667546,1.256943264390648],"representative_ratios":[0.7490158241517799,0.9135810360920186,1.0051122504437484,1.1719772994650448,1.341427182899395],"median_ratio":1.0051122504437484,"actual_ratio":0.5175159578215524,"log_actual_ratio":-0.6587149179478945,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.40863885687914714,"winkler_80_log":5.196227396187167,"median_absolute_log_error":0.6638141452056776,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.6587149179478945,"bin_index":0,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1984,"target_year":1994,"training_count":15,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984}],"last_training_target_year":1984,"boundary_ratios":[0.6964279487300948,0.9612576554526228,1.1132254823258056,1.2565762930805475],"representative_ratios":[0.5782632495583607,0.8452853470323065,0.9996917889984588,1.1457317244382321,1.329185310259633],"median_ratio":0.9996917889984588,"actual_ratio":0.5544073766560442,"log_actual_ratio":-0.5898555255383177,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.5901817336223083,"winkler_80_log":2.8708276016350007,"median_absolute_log_error":0.589547267030004,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5898555255383177,"bin_index":0,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1985,"target_year":1995,"training_count":16,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985}],"last_training_target_year":1985,"boundary_ratios":[0.5520956358818208,0.9025409958353444,1.1079572321975115,1.2562094289096843],"representative_ratios":[0.4860312007960447,0.8293764790824315,0.998490671340761,1.120073899881332,1.3170551570241282],"median_ratio":0.998490671340761,"actual_ratio":0.7768097016155641,"log_actual_ratio":-0.2525598728765695,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.8221327912110499,"winkler_80_log":0.8221327912110499,"median_absolute_log_error":0.2510494040334105,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.2525598728765695,"bin_index":1,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1986,"target_year":1996,"training_count":17,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986}],"last_training_target_year":1986,"boundary_ratios":[0.48263739506815795,0.8452853470323065,1.1027139136395552,1.2558426718467783],"representative_ratios":[0.4555565987539889,0.6570287152662115,0.9972909968114789,1.119408641819775,1.305035703640917],"median_ratio":0.9972909968114789,"actual_ratio":1.3235217452841992,"log_actual_ratio":0.28029617268544366,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.9562964410522936,"winkler_80_log":1.4811901785900263,"median_absolute_log_error":0.28300885186344815,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.28029617268544366,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1987,"target_year":1997,"training_count":18,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987}],"last_training_target_year":1987,"boundary_ratios":[0.4550699935730804,0.8313485965204079,1.0900258171910282,1.2554760218605587],"representative_ratios":[0.4206172011771708,0.5394592883284762,0.9835019396045837,1.1187437788824046,1.2931259398624735],"median_ratio":0.9835019396045837,"actual_ratio":1.0949590523218145,"log_actual_ratio":0.090716967429353,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":1.0148188407882475,"winkler_80_log":1.0148188407882475,"median_absolute_log_error":0.10735263643934516,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.090716967429353,"bin_index":3,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1988,"target_year":1998,"training_count":19,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988}],"last_training_target_year":1988,"boundary_ratios":[0.4597639134895022,0.6964279487300947,1.0628668420285736,1.255109478919764],"representative_ratios":[0.42158501330850034,0.5459061261081647,0.9699035369802155,1.11807931083454,1.2813248646607964],"median_ratio":0.9699035369802155,"actual_ratio":0.6921612803229372,"log_actual_ratio":-0.3679362864691868,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":1.0042649557700272,"winkler_80_log":1.0042649557700272,"median_absolute_log_error":0.33737762762720697,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.3679362864691868,"bin_index":1,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1989,"target_year":1999,"training_count":20,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989}],"last_training_target_year":1989,"boundary_ratios":[0.46450624987919836,0.6092794313221821,1.0363845571978907,1.2547430429931419],"representative_ratios":[0.42255505231100626,0.5496229553847712,0.9644907921908742,1.1174152374416402,1.2696314861432734],"median_ratio":0.9644907921908742,"actual_ratio":0.6020738440439484,"log_actual_ratio":-0.5073751766711625,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9937110707518069,"winkler_80_log":0.9937110707518069,"median_absolute_log_error":0.4712201832716384,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5073751766711625,"bin_index":1,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1990,"target_year":2000,"training_count":21,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990}],"last_training_target_year":1990,"boundary_ratios":[0.4692975021445715,0.5852919272844973,1.0105621023497813,1.2543767140494486],"representative_ratios":[0.42352732330857046,0.550198384526769,0.9591082543293742,1.1167515584693033,1.2580448214693074],"median_ratio":0.9591082543293742,"actual_ratio":0.6148535959164213,"log_actual_ratio":-0.48637109493576164,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9831571857335866,"winkler_80_log":0.9831571857335866,"median_absolute_log_error":0.44461976697869326,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.48637109493576164,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1991,"target_year":2001,"training_count":22,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991}],"last_training_target_year":1991,"boundary_ratios":[0.4714949334285443,0.5711033328232284,1.0072886554460705,1.2402517619496893],"representative_ratios":[0.42570600264449376,0.5487133132877301,0.9025409958353444,1.1132254823258056,1.2578611616054178],"median_ratio":0.9025409958353444,"actual_ratio":0.6419369073462198,"log_actual_ratio":-0.4432652552831474,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9671613154497778,"winkler_80_log":0.9671613154497778,"median_absolute_log_error":0.34072409022467776,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.4432652552831474,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1992,"target_year":2002,"training_count":23,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992}],"last_training_target_year":1992,"boundary_ratios":[0.47370265393039224,0.5771415481666302,1.0040258120021632,1.226285864358504],"representative_ratios":[0.4278958893887413,0.5490842048830711,0.8493100184327205,1.1097105395564908,1.2576775285537252],"median_ratio":0.8493100184327205,"actual_ratio":0.7427896219045147,"log_actual_ratio":-0.29734242118908066,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9511654451659687,"winkler_80_log":0.9511654451659687,"median_absolute_log_error":0.13401141902920968,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.29734242118908066,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1993,"target_year":2003,"training_count":24,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993}],"last_training_target_year":1993,"boundary_ratios":[0.47592071182818807,0.5636172483042193,1.0007735376709745,1.212477230237133],"representative_ratios":[0.43009704119367115,0.5357975518160084,0.8392840715378582,1.1062066950083969,1.2574939223103152],"median_ratio":0.8392840715378582,"actual_ratio":0.8105304276483022,"log_actual_ratio":-0.21006639668714436,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9351695748821596,"winkler_80_log":0.9351695748821596,"median_absolute_log_error":0.034860350343543706,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.21006639668714436,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1994,"target_year":2004,"training_count":25,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994}],"last_training_target_year":1994,"boundary_ratios":[0.4781491555255929,0.5565351640340136,0.9992111686489134,1.1988240887148698],"representative_ratios":[0.4323095160082127,0.5420338193614397,0.8293764790824315,1.1027139136395552,1.2573103428712744],"median_ratio":0.8293764790824315,"actual_ratio":0.8156931906644396,"log_actual_ratio":-0.2037169865534768,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9191737045983507,"winkler_80_log":0.9191737045983507,"median_absolute_log_error":0.016635896026146457,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.2037169865534768,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1995,"target_year":2005,"training_count":26,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995}],"last_training_target_year":1995,"boundary_ratios":[0.4803880336529123,0.5597421667781136,0.998490671340761,1.1853246888619575],"representative_ratios":[0.434533372079392,0.5483426722196749,0.8026628777033299,1.09923216051864,1.2571267902326895],"median_ratio":0.8026628777033299,"actual_ratio":0.6233968901085993,"log_actual_ratio":-0.47257190025839296,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9031778343145417,"winkler_80_log":0.9031778343145417,"median_absolute_log_error":0.252751418556443,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.47257190025839296,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1996,"target_year":2006,"training_count":27,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996}],"last_training_target_year":1996,"boundary_ratios":[0.48263739506815795,0.5629676496960917,1.0018564568844546,1.2558426718467783],"representative_ratios":[0.43676866795386554,0.5487133132877301,0.8293764790824315,1.1132254823258056,1.3035286806083228],"median_ratio":0.8293764790824315,"actual_ratio":0.5717541172185163,"log_actual_ratio":-0.5590462450233792,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9562964410522936,"winkler_80_log":0.9562964410522936,"median_absolute_log_error":0.37196515449604883,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5590462450233792,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1997,"target_year":2007,"training_count":28,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997}],"last_training_target_year":1997,"boundary_ratios":[0.484897288858113,0.5671129932513801,1.0094697730948974,1.2554760218605587],"representative_ratios":[0.4390154624794611,0.5490842048830711,0.8392840715378582,1.1097105395564908,1.3002259897425772],"median_ratio":0.8392840715378582,"actual_ratio":1.0818879912374226,"log_actual_ratio":0.07870765495242527,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9513329869774203,"winkler_80_log":0.9513329869774203,"median_absolute_log_error":0.2539137012960259,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.07870765495242527,"bin_index":3,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1998,"target_year":2008,"training_count":29,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998}],"last_training_target_year":1998,"boundary_ratios":[0.4871677643394042,0.5731090191550723,1.0061998645010133,1.255109478919764],"representative_ratios":[0.44127381480672745,0.5494553471750365,0.8293764790824315,1.1062066950083969,1.2969316667532862],"median_ratio":0.8293764790824315,"actual_ratio":1.6564554685321629,"log_actual_ratio":0.5046800595302767,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.946369532902547,"winkler_80_log":3.720942098424505,"median_absolute_log_error":0.6917611500576071,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5046800595302767,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":1999,"target_year":2009,"training_count":30,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999}],"last_training_target_year":1999,"boundary_ratios":[0.48944887105957746,0.5791684404086604,1.00294054790552,1.2547430429931419],"representative_ratios":[0.4435437843904915,0.54982674033308,0.8026628777033299,1.1027139136395552,1.2936456904391453],"median_ratio":0.8026628777033299,"actual_ratio":1.4243688238066459,"log_actual_ratio":0.3537287849358498,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.9414060788276737,"winkler_80_log":2.2093858781733093,"median_absolute_log_error":0.5735492666377997,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.3537287849358498,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2000,"target_year":2010,"training_count":31,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000}],"last_training_target_year":2000,"boundary_ratios":[0.4917406587981795,0.5852919272844973,0.9996917889984588,1.2543767140494486],"representative_ratios":[0.4458254309914234,0.550198384526769,0.7768097016155641,1.09923216051864,1.290368039652566],"median_ratio":0.7768097016155641,"actual_ratio":1.6580432713022808,"log_actual_ratio":0.5056381548660783,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.9364426247528003,"winkler_80_log":3.726436103168669,"median_absolute_log_error":0.7581980277426479,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.5056381548660783,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2001,"target_year":2011,"training_count":32,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001}],"last_training_target_year":2001,"boundary_ratios":[0.4942593360659552,0.5902767834142831,0.9989709451312617,1.2402517619496893],"representative_ratios":[0.44811881467760994,0.5510376188253594,0.7332650255109047,1.0983762068834206,1.2870986932995407],"median_ratio":0.7332650255109047,"actual_ratio":2.5611384151935703,"log_actual_ratio":0.9404518530796372,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.9200093205890287,"winkler_80_log":8.171383922997787,"median_absolute_log_error":1.2506999327525152,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.9404518530796372,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2002,"target_year":2012,"training_count":33,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002}],"last_training_target_year":2002,"boundary_ratios":[0.4967909139045209,0.5953040949231307,0.9982506210401462,1.226285864358504],"representative_ratios":[0.45042399582613585,0.5518781332335024,0.7427896219045147,1.0975209197649318,1.283837630339507],"median_ratio":0.7427896219045147,"actual_ratio":2.3551465611020097,"log_actual_ratio":0.8566029595455175,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.9035760164252568,"winkler_80_log":7.429705825350124,"median_absolute_log_error":1.153945380734598,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.8566029595455175,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2003,"target_year":2013,"training_count":34,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003}],"last_training_target_year":2003,"boundary_ratios":[0.49933545839011806,0.6003742233980477,0.9975308163503194,1.212477230237133],"representative_ratios":[0.45274103512467345,0.5527199297037884,0.7596092314833882,1.096666298644168,1.2805848297852114],"median_ratio":0.7596092314833882,"actual_ratio":1.9435055051665628,"log_actual_ratio":0.6644933039104834,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.8871427122614848,"winkler_80_log":5.605420106693316,"median_absolute_log_error":0.9394444509433085,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.6644933039104834,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2004,"target_year":2014,"training_count":35,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004}],"last_training_target_year":2004,"boundary_ratios":[0.5018930359374277,0.6046083654925303,0.9917523251376891,1.1988240887148698],"representative_ratios":[0.4550699935730804,0.5535630101917852,0.7768097016155641,1.095812343002528,1.2773402707025756],"median_ratio":0.7768097016155641,"actual_ratio":1.3765612353597523,"log_actual_ratio":0.3195885308876489,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.8707094080977132,"winkler_80_log":2.2531832141585,"median_absolute_log_error":0.5721484037642184,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.3195885308876489,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2005,"target_year":2015,"training_count":36,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005}],"last_training_target_year":2005,"boundary_ratios":[0.5044637133013048,0.608430166919462,0.9835019396045837,1.1853246888619575],"representative_ratios":[0.45741093248500525,0.5544073766560442,0.7596092314833882,1.0949590523218145,1.2741039322105605],"median_ratio":0.7596092314833882,"actual_ratio":1.417447110269098,"log_actual_ratio":0.34885744394418855,"interval_80_covered":false,"log_interval_80_width":0.8542761039339414,"winkler_80_log":2.6426831824174304,"median_absolute_log_error":0.6238085909770137,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.34885744394418855,"bin_index":4,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2006,"target_year":2016,"training_count":37,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006}],"last_training_target_year":2006,"boundary_ratios":[0.5070475575785199,0.5986794006857701,0.9753201890115933,1.1719772994650446],"representative_ratios":[0.4597639134895022,0.5565351640340136,0.7427896219045147,1.0775338055331078,1.2708757934810322],"median_ratio":0.7427896219045147,"actual_ratio":1.0971725993706607,"log_actual_ratio":0.09273650653821403,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.8378427997701694,"winkler_80_log":0.8378427997701694,"median_absolute_log_error":0.3900789277272947,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.09273650653821403,"bin_index":3,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2007,"target_year":2017,"training_count":38,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007}],"last_training_target_year":2007,"boundary_ratios":[0.509644636209511,0.603339773886337,0.9945178052336057,1.1587802088051682],"representative_ratios":[0.462128998532653,0.5586711177519642,0.7596092314833882,1.089711783466966,1.267655833738629],"median_ratio":0.7596092314833882,"actual_ratio":0.7987193297489791,"log_actual_ratio":-0.22474567183796212,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.8214094956063982,"winkler_80_log":0.8214094956063982,"median_absolute_log_error":0.05020547519486296,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.22474567183796212,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2008,"target_year":2018,"training_count":39,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008}],"last_training_target_year":2008,"boundary_ratios":[0.5122550169801429,0.6071535563947629,0.9987307793665058,1.255109478919764],"representative_ratios":[0.46450624987919836,0.5608152691518944,0.7768097016155641,1.096666298644168,1.3411912887278745],"median_ratio":0.7768097016155641,"actual_ratio":0.6318444258765419,"log_actual_ratio":-0.4591120767257665,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.8961555008820583,"winkler_80_log":0.8961555008820583,"median_absolute_log_error":0.20655220384919698,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.4591120767257665,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2009,"target_year":2019,"training_count":40,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009}],"last_training_target_year":2009,"boundary_ratios":[0.5148787680234778,0.6109914462762663,1.00294054790552,1.2644440322606256],"representative_ratios":[0.4668957301141765,0.5629676496960917,0.7934909575110564,1.1027139136395552,1.4285903490822813],"median_ratio":0.7934909575110564,"actual_ratio":0.8622263186857099,"log_actual_ratio":-0.14823749209936418,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.8984563333076752,"winkler_80_log":0.8984563333076752,"median_absolute_log_error":0.08307564268249276,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.14823749209936418,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2010,"target_year":2020,"training_count":41,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009},{"origin":2000,"target":2010}],"last_training_target_year":2010,"boundary_ratios":[0.5175159578215524,0.6148535959164213,1.0105621023497813,1.3235217452841992],"representative_ratios":[0.4692975021445715,0.5651282909675942,0.8105304276483022,1.1167515584693033,1.511219363410989],"median_ratio":0.8105304276483022,"actual_ratio":0.7498531647168619,"log_actual_ratio":-0.2878778719967783,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9390110906333382,"winkler_80_log":0.9390110906333382,"median_absolute_log_error":0.07781147530963392,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.2878778719967783,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2011,"target_year":2021,"training_count":42,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009},{"origin":2000,"target":2010},{"origin":2001,"target":2011}],"last_training_target_year":2011,"boundary_ratios":[0.5205189868615143,0.6163507872437207,1.0599771723506852,1.4139476210884714],"representative_ratios":[0.47039493463666987,0.566447284839985,0.8131077115973359,1.119408641819775,1.6488727936193845],"median_ratio":0.8131077115973359,"actual_ratio":0.738628058766793,"log_actual_ratio":-0.3029607881615045,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":0.9993144371831286,"winkler_80_log":0.9993144371831286,"median_absolute_log_error":0.09606909654119394,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.3029607881615045,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2012,"target_year":2022,"training_count":43,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009},{"origin":2000,"target":2010},{"origin":2001,"target":2011},{"origin":2002,"target":2012}],"last_training_target_year":2012,"boundary_ratios":[0.523539441805506,0.6178516242874726,1.0870975863312677,1.493435599616766],"representative_ratios":[0.4714949334285443,0.5677693572077601,0.8156931906644396,1.1988240887148698,1.657884422559535],"median_ratio":0.8156931906644396,"actual_ratio":0.8381310260106706,"log_actual_ratio":-0.1765808351009949,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":1.0482221462969785,"winkler_80_log":1.0482221462969785,"median_absolute_log_error":0.02713615145248191,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.1765808351009949,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2013,"target_year":2023,"training_count":44,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009},{"origin":2000,"target":2010},{"origin":2001,"target":2011},{"origin":2002,"target":2012},{"origin":2003,"target":2013}],"last_training_target_year":2013,"boundary_ratios":[0.5265774237721405,0.619356115925132,1.095385614574427,1.6114769146466599],"representative_ratios":[0.4725975045213793,0.5690945152560434,0.8225063808170654,1.2558426718467781,1.8977425183993162],"median_ratio":0.8225063808170654,"actual_ratio":0.7447674295030792,"log_actual_ratio":-0.29468328450303927,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":1.1185080013097624,"winkler_80_log":1.1185080013097624,"median_absolute_log_error":0.09928424596263569,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.29468328450303927,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2014,"target_year":2024,"training_count":45,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009},{"origin":2000,"target":2010},{"origin":2001,"target":2011},{"origin":2002,"target":2012},{"origin":2003,"target":2013},{"origin":2004,"target":2014}],"last_training_target_year":2014,"boundary_ratios":[0.5296330344667992,0.6205645090341068,1.0983762068834206,1.5967571253772677],"representative_ratios":[0.47370265393039224,0.5704227661867279,0.8293764790824315,1.2708757934810326,1.8827289135106473],"median_ratio":0.8293764790824315,"actual_ratio":0.7457830512031006,"log_actual_ratio":-0.29332053715520773,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":1.1035456759202926,"winkler_80_log":1.1035456759202926,"median_absolute_log_error":0.10623944662787738,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.29332053715520773,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false},{"origin_year":2015,"target_year":2025,"training_count":46,"training_windows":[{"origin":1960,"target":1970},{"origin":1961,"target":1971},{"origin":1962,"target":1972},{"origin":1963,"target":1973},{"origin":1964,"target":1974},{"origin":1965,"target":1975},{"origin":1966,"target":1976},{"origin":1967,"target":1977},{"origin":1968,"target":1978},{"origin":1969,"target":1979},{"origin":1970,"target":1980},{"origin":1971,"target":1981},{"origin":1972,"target":1982},{"origin":1973,"target":1983},{"origin":1974,"target":1984},{"origin":1975,"target":1985},{"origin":1976,"target":1986},{"origin":1977,"target":1987},{"origin":1978,"target":1988},{"origin":1979,"target":1989},{"origin":1980,"target":1990},{"origin":1981,"target":1991},{"origin":1982,"target":1992},{"origin":1983,"target":1993},{"origin":1984,"target":1994},{"origin":1985,"target":1995},{"origin":1986,"target":1996},{"origin":1987,"target":1997},{"origin":1988,"target":1998},{"origin":1989,"target":1999},{"origin":1990,"target":2000},{"origin":1991,"target":2001},{"origin":1992,"target":2002},{"origin":1993,"target":2003},{"origin":1994,"target":2004},{"origin":1995,"target":2005},{"origin":1996,"target":2006},{"origin":1997,"target":2007},{"origin":1998,"target":2008},{"origin":1999,"target":2009},{"origin":2000,"target":2010},{"origin":2001,"target":2011},{"origin":2002,"target":2012},{"origin":2003,"target":2013},{"origin":2004,"target":2014},{"origin":2005,"target":2015}],"last_training_target_year":2015,"boundary_ratios":[0.5327063761850375,0.6216251407232396,1.1079572321975115,1.5821717917703584],"representative_ratios":[0.47481038768486744,0.5717541172185163,0.8392840715378582,1.3235217452841992,1.8678340857108466],"median_ratio":0.8392840715378582,"actual_ratio":0.8812810482185586,"log_actual_ratio":-0.12637869345523234,"interval_80_covered":true,"log_interval_80_width":1.088583350530823,"winkler_80_log":1.088583350530823,"median_absolute_log_error":0.048827352888368314,"flat_real_absolute_log_error":0.12637869345523234,"bin_index":2,"on_boundary":false}],"skipped_origins":[{"origin_year":1960,"target_year":1970,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1961,"target_year":1971,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1962,"target_year":1972,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1963,"target_year":1973,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1964,"target_year":1974,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1965,"target_year":1975,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1966,"target_year":1976,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1967,"target_year":1977,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1968,"target_year":1978,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1969,"target_year":1979,"training_count":0,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1970,"target_year":1980,"training_count":1,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1971,"target_year":1981,"training_count":2,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1972,"target_year":1982,"training_count":3,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1973,"target_year":1983,"training_count":4,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1974,"target_year":1984,"training_count":5,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1975,"target_year":1985,"training_count":6,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1976,"target_year":1986,"training_count":7,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1977,"target_year":1987,"training_count":8,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"},{"origin_year":1978,"target_year":1988,"training_count":9,"reason":"minimum_training_returns_not_met"}],"summary":{"evaluated_origin_count":37,"target_years":[1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025],"covered_80_count":22,"observed_80_coverage":0.5945945945945946,"mean_log_interval_80_width":0.8535415548004146,"mean_winkler_80_log":2.345999787026937,"median_mean_absolute_log_error":0.39871425931000093,"flat_real_mean_absolute_log_error":0.3943178993163103,"bin_counts":[6,3,16,3,9],"boundary_tie_count":0,"nonoverlapping_target_interval_max_count":4,"nonoverlapping_selected_origin_years":[1979,1989,1999,2009],"statistically_independent_sample_count":null,"confidence_interval":null,"significance_of_model_difference":null}},"annual_price_and_cpi_inputs":[{"year":1960,"nominal_price":44.5,"cpi":{"value":29.575,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1961,"nominal_price":44.95,"cpi":{"value":29.891666666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1962,"nominal_price":48.63333333333333,"cpi":{"value":30.25,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1963,"nominal_price":53.791666666666664,"cpi":{"value":30.625,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1964,"nominal_price":54.625,"cpi":{"value":31.016666666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1965,"nominal_price":55.68333333333334,"cpi":{"value":31.508333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1966,"nominal_price":58.30833333333334,"cpi":{"value":32.458333333333336,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1967,"nominal_price":54.108333333333334,"cpi":{"value":33.358333333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1968,"nominal_price":47.958333333333336,"cpi":{"value":34.78333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1969,"nominal_price":52.291666666666664,"cpi":{"value":36.68333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1970,"nominal_price":58.4,"cpi":{"value":38.825,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1971,"nominal_price":58.4,"cpi":{"value":40.49166666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1972,"nominal_price":55.75833333333333,"cpi":{"value":41.81666666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1973,"nominal_price":97.825,"cpi":{"value":44.4,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1974,"nominal_price":131.23333333333335,"cpi":{"value":49.30833333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1975,"nominal_price":119.65,"cpi":{"value":53.81666666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1976,"nominal_price":112.375,"cpi":{"value":56.90833333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1977,"nominal_price":95.35,"cpi":{"value":60.608333333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1978,"nominal_price":100.74166666666666,"cpi":{"value":65.23333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1979,"nominal_price":115.53333333333333,"cpi":{"value":72.575,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1980,"nominal_price":125.26666666666667,"cpi":{"value":82.40833333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1981,"nominal_price":130.78333333333333,"cpi":{"value":90.925,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1982,"nominal_price":109.28333333333333,"cpi":{"value":96.5,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1983,"nominal_price":136.025,"cpi":{"value":99.6,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1984,"nominal_price":135.95833333333334,"cpi":{"value":103.88333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1985,"nominal_price":112.23333333333333,"cpi":{"value":107.56666666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1986,"nominal_price":87.55,"cpi":{"value":109.60833333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1987,"nominal_price":75.70833333333333,"cpi":{"value":113.625,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1988,"nominal_price":106.89166666666667,"cpi":{"value":118.25833333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1989,"nominal_price":111.525,"cpi":{"value":123.96666666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1990,"nominal_price":109.275,"cpi":{"value":130.65833333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1991,"nominal_price":107.41666666666667,"cpi":{"value":136.19166666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1992,"nominal_price":104.25,"cpi":{"value":140.31666666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1993,"nominal_price":102.1,"cpi":{"value":144.45833333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1994,"nominal_price":107.55,"cpi":{"value":148.225,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1995,"nominal_price":123.50833333333334,"cpi":{"value":152.38333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1996,"nominal_price":165.81666666666666,"cpi":{"value":156.85,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1997,"nominal_price":117.10833333333333,"cpi":{"value":160.51666666666665,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1998,"nominal_price":101.98333333333333,"cpi":{"value":163.00833333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":1999,"nominal_price":90.225,"cpi":{"value":166.575,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2000,"nominal_price":88.55,"cpi":{"value":172.2,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2001,"nominal_price":89.65,"cpi":{"value":177.06666666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2002,"nominal_price":99.26666666666667,"cpi":{"value":179.875,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2003,"nominal_price":105.38333333333333,"cpi":{"value":183.95833333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2004,"nominal_price":111.79166666666667,"cpi":{"value":188.88333333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2005,"nominal_price":98.675,"cpi":{"value":195.29166666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2006,"nominal_price":121.85,"cpi":{"value":201.59166666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2007,"nominal_price":163.65833333333333,"cpi":{"value":207.34241666666668,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2008,"nominal_price":223.125,"cpi":{"value":215.3025,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2009,"nominal_price":165.51666666666668,"cpi":{"value":214.537,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2010,"nominal_price":185.91666666666666,"cpi":{"value":218.0555,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2011,"nominal_price":291.68333333333334,"cpi":{"value":224.93916666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2012,"nominal_price":298.40833333333336,"cpi":{"value":229.59391666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2013,"nominal_price":259.3666666666667,"cpi":{"value":232.95708333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2014,"nominal_price":192.875,"cpi":{"value":236.73616666666666,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2015,"nominal_price":169.75,"cpi":{"value":237.017,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2016,"nominal_price":159.16666666666666,"cpi":{"value":240.00716666666668,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2017,"nominal_price":154.53333333333333,"cpi":{"value":245.11958333333334,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2018,"nominal_price":164.425,"cpi":{"value":251.10683333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2019,"nominal_price":170.06666666666666,"cpi":{"value":255.65741666666668,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2020,"nominal_price":165.46666666666667,"cpi":{"value":258.8111666666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2021,"nominal_price":259.5333333333333,"cpi":{"value":270.96975,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2022,"nominal_price":318.8,"cpi":{"value":292.6549166666667,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2023,"nominal_price":252.65833333333333,"cpi":{"value":304.7015833333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2024,"nominal_price":190.6,"cpi":{"value":313.6888333333333,"months":12,"missing_months":[],"annual_rule":"12か月の算術平均"}},{"year":2025,"nominal_price":203.2,"cpi":{"value":321.943,"months":11,"missing_months":[10],"annual_rule":"BLS公表方法による11か月平均。10月は補完しない。"}}]},"research":{"schema_version":1,"version":"food-hindcast-20261026-r1","as_of":"2026-10-26","review_due":"2027-02-28","sources":{"worldbank":{"file":"monthly.xlsx","url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154","sheet":"Monthly Prices","description_sheet":"Description","header_row":5,"scope":"World Bank Pink Sheet monthly, current revised workbook as retrieved 2026-10-25"},"cpi":{"file":"cpiaucns.csv","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=CPIAUCNS&cosd=1960-01-01&coed=2025-12-31","sha256":"c5d9ef83952568acba2c0b020718de6a32b71df6ba1218a22f15fc0021039dd1","scope":"U.S. BLS CPIAUCNS through FRED, not seasonally adjusted"}},"method":{"horizon_years":10,"minimum_training_returns":10,"first_price_year":1960,"last_complete_price_year":2025,"quantile_boundaries":[0.1,0.3,0.7,0.9],"representative_quantiles":[0.05,0.2,0.5,0.8,0.95],"nominal_bin_weights":[0.1,0.2,0.4,0.2,0.1],"training_rule":"各起点年までに終わった10暦年差の実質価格比だけで分位点を作る。予測対象と同年以降の終点を学習へ混ぜない。","vintage_rule":"現行改訂版の価格履歴とCPIを時間で切った疑似検証。当時の公表版・情報利用時刻を再現していない。","basis_rule":"現行世界銀行Descriptionに明示されたICCOココアと米国#2イエローFOBトウモロコシを選び、1960～2025年の月次欠測・定義注記を確認。全ての旧版の品位/算定法が不変だった証明ではない。"},"limitations":["37検証窓は10年間ずつ大きく重なる。重ならない区間を最大4本選べても、景気・気候・政策ショックと二市場の相関があり、統計的独立標本数は未確定。","世界銀行の現行改訂履歴を使うため、公表当時の本当のリアルタイム予測成績ではない。","ココアの先物指標とトウモロコシのFOB現物価格は品目・受渡が異なる。的中率を合算して共通確率にしない。","中心80%帯の被覆率だけで配分を評価せず、幅とWinkler指標、中央値と実質横ばいの誤差を併記する。","2025年の米国CPIは10月が欠測のため11か月平均。欠測月を補間せず、現在版の履歴だけを使う。","この単純な分布再利用法は、現行の資源別2036年5価格そのものではない。現行の主観的配分を校正済み確率へ変更しない。"],"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"probabilities_calibrated":false,"interpretation_flags":{"time_order_respected":true,"current_revised_vintage_used":true,"old_release_vintages_reconstructed":false,"current_five_cases_evaluated":false,"current_five_probabilities_changed":false,"probabilities_calibrated":false,"statistically_independent_sample_count":null,"future_macro_changed":false,"automatic_valuation_enabled":false},"payload_sha":"38c377b5920a11c668f3d0d8f1f26def90bfd82c493bc5996965ad33b53a654e","stored_at":"2026-10-26T14:38:44+00:00","needs_review":false},"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}