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Aへ変更した公的な旧定義を確認し、最初の完全暦年1987年から。Brentも比較範囲を1987年以降とする。異なる品位の古い銅価格や鉄鉱石旧契約価格を学習へ加えない。","first_price_year":1987,"horizon_years":10,"interpolation":"linear on log real 10-calendar-year ratios","last_complete_price_year":2025,"minimum_training_returns":10,"nominal_bin_weights":[0.1,0.2,0.4,0.2,0.1],"origin_rule":"起点は暦年平均価格の年。予測の対象も10年差の暦年平均。年末当日に年平均が利用可能だったとは主張せず、特定日の10年先価格検証とは区別。","quantile_boundaries":[0.1,0.3,0.7,0.9],"representative_quantiles":[0.05,0.2,0.5,0.8,0.95],"training_rule":"各仮想起点年までに終点を迎えた10暦年差の変化だけを学習。将来の検証終点は学習に入れない。","vintage_rule":"現在版の履歴値を時間で切った疑似検証。各起点の当時公表版・改訂前データや実際の情報取得時刻は再現していない。"},"methodology_urls":["https://otexts.com/fpp3/toolbox.html#time-series-cross-validation","https://otexts.com/fpp3/toolbox.html#winkler-score"],"owner_lens":"価格予測が外れても競争力を維持する投資と資金繰りを賄える企業かを先に確認する。広い確率帯や中央値だけで企業価値を確定せず、低価格時の現金と過剰投資を点検する。","review_due":"2027-02-28","sources":{"basis":{"file":"wb-price-definitions-1993.pdf","retrieved_on":"2026-10-25","scope":"World Bank Commodity Trade and 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