{"schema_version":1,"region_id":"tokyo","region":{"arithmetic_margin":[0.15069987275040897,0.16844581147096083,0.1022054868208715,0.10269599148634256,0.10931742410949297,0.1308800555459122,0.14219314856257537,0.13885088919288635,0.14307613694430255,0.14317255434782616],"arithmetic_surplus_10_thousand_kw":[829,931,570,579,623,754,826,812,840,843],"demand":[5501,5527,5577,5638,5699,5761,5809,5848,5871,5888],"demand_change_2026_2035":0.07035084530085434,"eue":[0.059,0.009,0.189,0.137,0.115,0.053,0.029,0.031,0.026,0.028],"eue_printed":["0.059","0.009","0.189","0.137","0.115","0.053","0.029","0.031","0.026","0.028"],"eue_target":[0.058,0.059,0.054,0.038,0.038,0.041,0.041,0.041,0.04,0.039],"eue_target_key":"nine_total","exceeds_target_at_printed_precision":[true,false,true,true,true,true,false,false,false,false],"name":"東京","supply":[6330,6458,6147,6217,6322,6515,6635,6660,6711,6731],"supply_change_2026_2035":0.06334913112164298},"outlook":{"as_of":"2026-10-25","buffett_lens":["需要増に必要な発電所・系統・蓄電池への追加投資と維持更新投資を分け、資本コストを上回る現金収益が残るかを確かめる。地域需要増だけで企業価値を引き上げない。","調達契約・燃料費調整・小売価格転嫁の時間差、発電所の停止、担保や運転資金の増加を確認する。市場価格上昇が株主の手取り増になるとは限らない。","料金規制・容量収入・長期契約の安定性と負債返済を確認し、維持投資後の現金が未確認ならowner earningsは算定しない。"],"definitions":{"capacity":"設備容量。長期計画停止設備や再稼働時期未定の原子力を含み、供給力・実発電量とは異なる。蓄電池はkWで、kWh容量・持続時間は未掲載。","eue":"年間EUE（供給不足電力量を規模で規格化した指標）。単位kWh/kW・年。百分率や停電発生確率ではない。表示0.000を厳密なゼロとは扱わない。","period":"2026～2035年度の公表計画。2035年度末は2036年3月で、価格モデルの2036年10月とは終点が異なる。年度2036は未掲載。","quantity_price":"数量にはCPIを掛けない。価格側の共通CPI3%・短期2%・長期3%・ドル円150は変更しない。","revision":"2026年3月30日の計画断面。現時点の運用見通し・確定した建設量とは異なり、その後の計画変更・追加対策を含めた現行評価ではない。","summer_peak":"送電端の最大需要・供給力。8月断面。ただし沖縄は2026・2027年度が最小予備率断面、2028年度以降は指定断面。"},"interpretation_flags":{"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"capacity_is_firm_supply":false,"inflation_applied_to_quantity":false,"jepx_price_forecast":null,"outage_probability":null,"owner_earnings":null,"retail_price_forecast":null,"source_plan_is_current_operational_forecast":false,"zero_printed_eue_means_exact_zero":false},"quantity":{"area_sum_residuals":{"demand":{"east_three":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"japan":[0,1,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0,0],"nine_total":[1,0,0,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0],"west_six":[0,0,1,1,0,0,1,0,0,0]},"supply":{"east_three":[0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0,-1,0],"japan":[0,0,1,-1,0,0,-1,0,0,0],"nine_total":[0,-1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"west_six":[0,1,-1,1,-1,0,0,-1,1,1]}},"capacity":[{"id":"thermal","name":"火力","parent":null,"values":[14203,14137,14054,14315]},{"id":"coal","name":"石炭","parent":"thermal","values":[5138,5104,4590,4558]},{"id":"lng","name":"LNG","parent":"thermal","values":[7845,7903,8380,8697]},{"id":"oil_other","name":"石油他","parent":"thermal","values":[1220,1130,1084,1059]},{"id":"nuclear","name":"原子力","parent":null,"values":[3308,3308,3308,3308]},{"id":"new_energy_group","name":"新エネルギー等","parent":null,"values":[14623,15142,17728,19323]},{"id":"general_hydro","name":"一般水力","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[2214,2219,2231,2236]},{"id":"pumped_hydro","name":"揚水","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[2734,2734,2736,2736]},{"id":"wind","name":"風力","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[684,768,1535,1792]},{"id":"solar","name":"太陽光","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[8019,8359,9642,10922]},{"id":"geothermal","name":"地熱","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[51,52,55,55]},{"id":"biomass","name":"バイオマス","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[718,727,754,740]},{"id":"waste","name":"廃棄物","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[135,116,116,113]},{"id":"battery","name":"蓄電池","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[66,167,631,660]},{"id":"hydrogen","name":"水素","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[0,0,0,15]},{"id":"ammonia","name":"アンモニア","parent":"new_energy_group","values":[0,0,30,54]},{"id":"other","name":"その他","parent":null,"values":[231,262,80,80]},{"id":"total","name":"合計","parent":null,"values":[32365,32849,35171,37026]}],"capacity_pdf_page":23,"capacity_sum_residuals":{"new_energy_group":[-2,0,2,0],"thermal":[0,0,0,-1],"total":[0,0,-1,0]},"capacity_table":"3-1","capacity_unit":"10 thousand kW","capacity_years":[2025,2026,2030,2035],"demand_table":"別2-1","eue_pdf_page":13,"eue_table":"2-4","eue_targets_printed":{"nine_total":["0.058","0.059","0.054","0.038","0.038","0.041","0.041","0.041","0.040","0.039"],"okinawa":["1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996","1.996"]},"eue_unit":"kWh/kW/year","peak_unit":"10 thousand kW","source_numeric_cells":482,"summer_pdf_page":68,"supply_table":"別2-2","transcription":"PDF13・68は原表画像を手動転記し照合。PDF23はテキスト抽出と画像で照合。小数3桁の表示値・丸め差を維持。","year_2036":null,"years":[2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035]},"review_due":"2026-11-25","source":{"page_url":"https://www.occto.or.jp/various/kyoukei/torimatome/260330_kyokyukeikaku_torimatome_1.html","pdf_file":"occto-260330-supply-plan.pdf","pdf_sha256":"e9c37c3f367de1dd6808701f80b09326056e99b5becd5cb87e51da23c33fc6ef","pdf_url":"https://www.occto.or.jp/assets/various/kyoukei/torimatome/260330_kyokyukeikaku_torimatome/260330_kyokei_torimatome.pdf","published_on":"2026-03-30","terms_url":"https://www.occto.or.jp/chosakuken.html","title":"OCCTO 2026年度供給計画の取りまとめ"},"source_data_sha256":"bdeb659c44ca8174f5e363926123410e47be74828434a57af9414a3c173dc746","source_issues":["2028年度の新エネルギー等の供給力減少には調整係数の算定方法等の違いを含む（本文16頁）。全てを物理的な設備減少とは解釈しない。","再稼働時期未定の原子力は供給力ではゼロ計上される一方、設備容量には含まれる（本文9・17・18頁）。原子力設備3,308万kWを全量稼働と扱わない。","表別2の沖縄2026・2027年度は最小予備率断面。本文の全国8月H3最大需要2026年度15,963万kWと別2の10社計15,961万kWを同一断面へ丸め補正しない。","年間EUEと月別H3予備率は別指標。表別3のEUE入力需要は離島除外・一部地域1月断面であり、別2の需要と接合しない。","9エリアのEUEは地域別EUEの単純合計・平均ではない。沖縄と9エリアから全国EUEを合成しない。","年間使用端需要は別の需要想定ページに掲載。送電端・使用端の差を需要の上方修正とみなさない。","地域全体の事業者計画であり、東京・関西などの名前を持つ上場電力会社の保有電源や販売量ではない。","計画には追加供給力確保・補修調整・運用等の対応余地がある。EUEの目標超過を将来の停電やJEPX高騰の確定と扱わない。"],"version":"power-supply-outlook-20261025-r1","payload_sha":"c9114a36891987b908f8fff7bb1558568fc9eb2030a99e68c9b8c9ca6d82a6fb","stored_at":"2026-10-25T11:45:02+00:00","needs_review":false},"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}