{"schema_version":1,"ticker":"5411","links":[{"ticker":"5411","asset_id":"jp_property_3000","name":"ＪＦＥホールディングス株式会社","kind":"text_candidate","direction":"未確認","evidence":"現地価格を150円/ドルで換算した代理値）","evidence_url":"/jp-stock/ai-analysis/?t=5411","updated_at":"2026-11-01T22:46:09+00:00"},{"ticker":"5411","asset_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv","name":"JFEホールディングス","kind":"documented","direction":"強粘結炭高は調達費上昇。国内の一部は遅れて鋼材へ転嫁","evidence":"JFEは国内出荷の約半分で主原料連動、四半期遅れと説明。2026年2月の約100億円転嫁見込みは特定時点・翌年度の値で、CIF参考系列への数量係数ではない。ブラックウォーター炭鉱10%権益/長期オフテイクも別。","evidence_url":"https://www.jfe-holdings.co.jp/common/pdf/investor/library/top/2025/2025-setumei260206-02.pdf","updated_at":"2026-10-27"},{"ticker":"5411","asset_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt","name":"JFEホールディングス","kind":"documented","direction":"鉄鉱石高は原料費上昇。鋼材売価・契約・在庫次第","evidence":"会社開示と監査済み財務資料は鉄鉱石・原料炭・鋼材売価を事業収益の要因とする。サイトの中国着62%Fe参考価格と実際の調達品位・契約は一致未確認。原料炭の影響と二重加算しない。","evidence_url":"https://www.jfe-holdings.co.jp/en/common/pdf/investor/library/top/2025/financial_report_2025.pdf","updated_at":"2026-10-27"}],"assets":[{"id":"jp_property_3000","name":"全国／住宅地","category":"土地","unit":"指数 (2010=100)","currency":"index","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"MLIT mlit_resi 3000 全国／住宅地／季節調整なし（国交省 不動産価格指数）","profile":"property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","note":"国交省・季節調整なし。年次・四半期・月次の区分と対象期間、公表状況を確認。面積当たり円価格ではなく価格指数。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"jp_property_3000","period":"2025-12","period_end":"2025-12-31","value":118.25,"fetched_at":"2026-11-02T15:13:07+00:00","source":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx","source_hash":"7ccabdb85fd9a55e15fc4c778d2f3de7db74825929f2a85610f5e32d74bf0814"},"age_days":307,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"stale","publication_check":{"automatic_forecast_revision":false,"automatic_price_fill":false,"calculation_program_issue_reported":true,"coverage":{"commercial":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"quarterly","has_2025_q4":true,"latest_period":"2025-Q4","periods_with_values":71,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"f95d3c1f4e12bbb7bd7d6bc91c281c5f17909ca2923ec22a2785e738f313b120"},"residential":{"adjustment":"nsa","base_period":"2010=100","frequency":"monthly","has_2025_q4":false,"latest_period":"2025-12","periods_with_values":213,"sheet":"全国Japan原系列","source_sha256":"76ad3577bd28716117a55df460a5d3dcee229b5637de197726309f3de9cca6dc"}},"interpretation":"公表ページの延期告知と配布Excelの掲載期間を併記。Excelに値が載ることと、延期告知の解消を同一視しない。年次の都道府県系列への延期の影響は未確認。","latest_files":{"commercial":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001465568.xlsx","residential":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/001473668.xlsx"},"notice":"・令和8年10月29日 「不動産価格指数」の公表延期について 令和8年10月30日に公開を予定しておりました「不動産価格指数(令和8年7月・第2四半期分)」につきましては、算出時のプログラムに不具合が発生しており、原因の確認作業を行っております。それに伴い、指数算出作業・精査等に時間を要しているため公表を延期することといたしました。 同様の理由から、令和8年4月以降に公開を予定しておりました 「不動産価格指数(令和8年1月~6月/令和7年第4四半期分・令和8年第1四半期分)」 についても公表を延期しております。 なお、新たな公表日につきましては、日程が決まり次第、速やかにお知らせいたします。","notice_date":"2026-10-29","notice_file_period_conflict":true,"page_source_sha256":"a3f30a5481ba410ec96c641edbe4a82bedb41d83d72c544fbae8a58162f0906f","past_value_revision_scope_verified":false,"schema_version":1,"source_id":"mlit_property","source_url":"https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html","status":"delay_notice_reported","input_hash":"a81f8e4f10c301d5398fe439d628e762da7e432ac5d62094d67967dea4224a51","checked_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00","check_overdue":false,"last_run":{"status":"ok","finished_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:04+00:00"}},"forecast":{"id":"jp_property_3000@price-research-20261025-v4","asset_id":"jp_property_3000","model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2027-01-25","reference_value":118.71833333333333,"reference_period":"2025-12","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"57803c24f13a222c158099e0d941298838adcebd275edc73e71f0eaafe3a7b01","created_at":"2026-10-24T16:41:35+00:00","reference_period_end":"2025-12-31","reference_lag_days_at_analysis":298,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":true,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3000@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":95.52414725165033,"real_growth":-0.05,"nominal_growth":-0.021500000000000075,"explanation":"人口減・空室と還元利回り上昇","change_from_current":-0.19218480125454263,"annual_from_current":-0.021164793428621986,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":159.55396872356394,"relative_to_cpi":-0.4013051006136288,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3000@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":123.86217913194227,"real_growth":-0.025,"nominal_growth":0.004250000000000087,"explanation":"賃料の物価追随が弱い","change_from_current":0.04746028864221796,"annual_from_current":0.004658479196559817,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":159.55396872356394,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2236972848570108,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3000@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":151.75235471175955,"real_growth":-0.005,"nominal_growth":0.02485000000000004,"explanation":"物価を少し下回る価格上昇","change_from_current":0.28331801024743797,"annual_from_current":0.025318276903065984,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":159.55396872356394,"relative_to_cpi":-0.04889639583532468,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3000@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":185.17266853819584,"real_growth":0.015,"nominal_growth":0.04544999999999999,"explanation":"賃料転嫁と再調達費上昇","change_from_current":0.5659422286528188,"annual_from_current":0.045979100349152535,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":159.55396872356394,"relative_to_cpi":0.1605644787126399,"real_jpy_target":null},{"forecast_id":"jp_property_3000@price-research-20261025-v4","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":225.07722984303268,"real_growth":0.035,"nominal_growth":0.06604999999999994,"explanation":"供給制約と都市集中が継続","change_from_current":0.9034015208713124,"annual_from_current":0.06664092936999388,"jpy_target":null,"cpi_only_target_price":159.55396872356394,"relative_to_cpi":0.4106651914938664,"real_jpy_target":null}],"expected_price":154.56804912819973,"needs_review":true,"current_baseline_usable":false,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":true,"thesis":"CPI年3%を共通前提とし、人口・賃料・再調達費・長期金利・還元利回りを考える。全国指数は都心の個別物件の時価を代替せず、土地には建物の修繕費を直接加算しない。","sources":["https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/totikensangyo_tk5_000085.html"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正・共通プロファイルの初期研究。個別需給モデル/バックテスト未完了","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"}},{"id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv","name":"日本の強粘結コークス用炭輸入CIF平均単価","category":"エネルギー","unit":"JPY/MT","currency":"JPY","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":75,"basis":"Japan Customs HS270112011+270112091 strong coking coal, both ash brackets; CIF thousand JPY / MT","profile":"energy","source_url":"https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/srch/index.htm?M=29&P=0","note":"強粘結性のコークス用炭2税番の全輸入CIF平均。豪州FOBプレミアム強粘結炭スポットや全原料炭ではない。","status":"reference","quote":{"asset_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":35791.5956,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:43+00:00","source":"https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/srch/index.htm?M=29&P=0","source_hash":"5397d3e0cf81689bb3ddcda8c4e80f2570074470d129b095542861685ff56313"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"reference","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv@jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","asset_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv","model_version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","reference_value":34374.27577820872,"reference_period":"2026-01..2026-08","reference_method":"8か月のCIF金額総額÷重量総量。月別金額をFRB月平均ドル円で概算換算。","input_hash":"fb58f0eba5e2c3c8d26a1ea427e442921b25779be8f7e9801be8ca802302fc5f","created_at":"2026-10-26T16:23:19+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv@jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":20385.87459860909,"real_growth":-0.07856854831044002,"nominal_growth":-0.050925604759753273,"explanation":"中国の高炉需要減と電炉・スクラップ利用がインドの増加を上回る。","change_from_current":-0.4304284495601227,"annual_from_current":-0.05485637793385045,"jpy_target":20385.87459860909,"cpi_only_target_price":46190.54477188132,"relative_to_cpi":-0.5586569784078608,"real_jpy_target":15170.846736996118},{"forecast_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv@jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":29652.181234340493,"real_growth":-0.043373411473433654,"nominal_growth":-0.014674613817636684,"explanation":"高炉需要が鈍り、豪州等の供給回復と操業継続が価格を抑える。","change_from_current":-0.17153229026926942,"annual_from_current":-0.018684868481221306,"jpy_target":29652.181234340493,"cpi_only_target_price":46190.54477188132,"relative_to_cpi":-0.35804651404779764,"real_jpy_target":22066.686162903443},{"forecast_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv@jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":37065.226542925615,"real_growth":-0.021777989783687612,"nominal_growth":0.007568670522801746,"explanation":"公表2031年実質強粘結炭価格を2036年まで維持する独自の比較条件。","change_from_current":0.0355846371634132,"annual_from_current":0.0035109184986685804,"jpy_target":37065.226542925615,"cpi_only_target_price":46190.54477188132,"relative_to_cpi":-0.19755814255974702,"real_jpy_target":27583.357703629303},{"forecast_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv@jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":51891.31716009586,"real_growth":0.011710453822109779,"nominal_growth":0.042061767436773145,"explanation":"インド等の高炉増設に高品位原料炭の増産が追いつかず、輸送制約も残る。","change_from_current":0.44981849202877844,"annual_from_current":0.03793221468539443,"jpy_target":51891.31716009586,"cpi_only_target_price":46190.54477188132,"relative_to_cpi":0.12341860041635422,"real_jpy_target":38616.700785081026},{"forecast_id":"jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv@jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":74130.45308585123,"real_growth":0.04846224838537183,"nominal_growth":0.07991611583693303,"explanation":"豪州の災害・炭鉱障害や陸上輸送制約が重なり、代替困難な品質の不足が長引く。","change_from_current":1.0711692743268264,"annual_from_current":0.07571028248290124,"jpy_target":74130.45308585123,"cpi_only_target_price":46190.54477188132,"relative_to_cpi":0.604883714880506,"real_jpy_target":55166.715407258605}],"expected_price":40586.42306450355,"needs_review":true,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"日本の強粘結炭CIF年初来輸入単価を月平均ドル円で概算換算し、豪州FOB強粘結炭の2026→2031年実質変化率だけを2036年へ移す独自の条件。品位・契約・運賃・原産国構成の相対変化1倍は未校正。","sources":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Preview.aspx?pi=400&preview=H10%2FH10%2FRXI_N.M.JA&rel=h10","https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026","https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/srch/index.htm?M=29&P=0"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"点価格の重みは主観的な配分。豪州FOBの変化率を日本CIFに移す妥当性、為替月平均による概算換算、2031→2036年実質据置は未校正。企業利益へ自動反映しない。","resource_model":null},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"}},{"id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt","name":"鉄鉱石（CFRスポット）","category":"金属・鉱物","unit":"USD/dmt","currency":"USD","frequency":"monthly","max_age_days":100,"basis":"World Bank iron ore spot 62% Fe fines CFR China; USD/dry metric ton; since 2008-12","profile":"iron","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","note":"鉄分62%の粉鉱・中国着CFRスポット。乾燥トン当たり米ドル。説明欄で同じ品位・単位になる2008年12月以降だけを収録。旧契約のUS cents/dmtuと接続・換算しない。","status":"active","quote":{"asset_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt","period":"2026-09","period_end":"2026-09-30","value":97.7,"fetched_at":"2026-11-01T22:45:07+00:00","source":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_hash":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154"},"age_days":34,"acrei_reference_quote":null,"freshness":"fresh","publication_check":null,"forecast":{"id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt@iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","asset_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt","model_version":"iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","as_of":"2026-10-25","target_date":"2036-10-25","review_due":"2026-11-25","reference_value":102.25833333333333,"reference_period":"2026-09","reference_method":"直近観測から12か月の有効観測の算術平均","input_hash":"ca6ff463c0be112aefa2d8f352335c233fbac50e432f9af8542e2c3785709127","created_at":"2026-10-25T04:36:45+00:00","reference_period_end":null,"reference_lag_days_at_analysis":null,"reference_anchor_year_mismatch":false,"scenarios":[{"forecast_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt@iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":0,"label":"低価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":59.9806489263573,"real_growth":-0.07955638062282389,"nominal_growth":-0.05194307204150861,"explanation":"中国建設需要が一段と弱まり、スクラップ・電炉化とアフリカ・ブラジル供給の立上げが重なる。高コスト供給の退出が遅れる低価格ストレス。","change_from_current":-0.38607319420309827,"annual_from_current":-0.04772532299126364,"jpy_target":8997.097338953594,"cpi_only_target_price":137.43221000736006,"relative_to_cpi":-0.5635619268354553,"real_jpy_target":6694.414494752661},{"forecast_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt@iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":1,"label":"やや低価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":79.9741985684764,"real_growth":-0.05269603502074083,"nominal_growth":-0.024276916071362953,"explanation":"新規供給と既存鉱山の生産性改善が需要回復を上回る。高品位需要の増加だけでは標準鉱の価格を支えられない。","change_from_current":-0.1814309256041311,"annual_from_current":-0.01986645630735795,"jpy_target":11996.12978527146,"cpi_only_target_price":137.43221000736006,"relative_to_cpi":-0.41808256911394026,"real_jpy_target":8925.885993003549},{"forecast_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt@iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":2,"label":"中立","weight":0.4,"target_price":99.96774821059549,"real_growth":-0.03132290669493176,"nominal_growth":-0.002262593895779652,"explanation":"公表2026→2031年の実質価格変化率を適用し、その後2036年まで実質水準を維持。FOB/CFR・61/62%の相対差維持を近似する。","change_from_current":0.02321134299483618,"annual_from_current":0.0023026050358383454,"jpy_target":14995.162231589324,"cpi_only_target_price":137.43221000736006,"relative_to_cpi":-0.2726032113924254,"real_jpy_target":11157.357491254435},{"forecast_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt@iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":3,"label":"やや高価格","weight":0.2,"target_price":134.95646008430393,"real_growth":-0.0018159572218794384,"nominal_growth":0.028129564061464274,"explanation":"新鉱山の鉄道・港湾・選鉱の立上げが遅れ、インド等の需要増と既存鉱山の減耗が供給余力を減らす。","change_from_current":0.3813353130430288,"annual_from_current":0.03291037012144993,"jpy_target":20243.46901264559,"cpi_only_target_price":137.43221000736006,"relative_to_cpi":-0.018014335379774038,"real_jpy_target":15062.432613193489},{"forecast_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt@iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","rank":4,"label":"高価格","weight":0.1,"target_price":184.94033418960166,"real_growth":0.030131211525591395,"nominal_growth":0.06103514787135911,"explanation":"複数生産地域の障害と新規案件の遅延が長引き、適合品位の供給が制約される。短期の瞬間高値をそのまま持続させる条件ではない。","change_from_current":0.8929409845404468,"annual_from_current":0.06605190967056074,"jpy_target":27741.05012844025,"cpi_only_target_price":137.43221000736006,"relative_to_cpi":0.3456840589240131,"real_jpy_target":20641.111358820704}],"expected_price":107.46532932639016,"needs_review":false,"current_baseline_usable":true,"probability_kind":"主観的シナリオ配分・未校正。価格帯に入る統計的確率ではない","reference_is_stale":false,"thesis":"国別貿易・鋼材需要と公表実質価格比を参照する。61%FOBの変化率を62%CFRへ近似し、2031→2036年は独自の実質維持。","sources":["https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026","https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026.pdf","https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026-forecast-data.xlsx"],"jp_cpi":0.03,"nominal_price_inflation":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"macro_basis":"全価格に共通の日本CPIを基準とし、固有の実質価格変化を別に乗算する。ドル建て系列にも別の基準インフレ率を置かない。","usd_inflation_assumption":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"calibration":"未校正。公表数量は2031年まで。CFR/FOB・61/62%の相対差維持・実質延長・倍率・配分は独自仮定で、数量差からの価格推定や費用下限ではない。","resource_model":{"version":"iron-ore-req-relative-20261025-r1","kind":"iron_ore_relative","asset_id":"wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt","macro_model_version":"price-research-20261025-v4","review_due":"2026-11-25","source":{"title":"DISR Resources and Energy Quarterly September 2026","landing_url":"https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026","pdf_url":"https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026.pdf","workbook_url":"https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026-forecast-data.xlsx","published_on":"2026-10-02","information_cutoff":"2026-09-20","pdf_sha256":"eb9dd61c43654a4393aad58fe5d3fe6db7e4568e1e3e340cee84e66ba1bab6db","workbook_sha256":"010ee389273048f983441185100fddc4d4fd2a42df716e137c352a87673ca66f","extracted_data_sha256":"20b7cb0cab74151fd6c3d4b3d9d68549c92184f0ab1e9dc51704ead016323d71","licence":"Commonwealth of Australia / DISR, CC BY 4.0; third-party material excluded"},"source_start_year":2026,"source_end_year":2031,"hold_real_to_year":2036,"relative_basis_multiplier":1,"basis_adjustment_calibrated":false,"probabilities_calibrated":false,"quantity_price_equation_calibrated":false,"source_future_nominal_used_for_targets":false,"source_country_quantities_through":2031,"country_2036_quantities_verified":false,"method_note":"61%Fe・豪州FOBの公表2026→2031年実質価格比を、62%Fe・中国向けCFRの観測12か月平均へ近似的に適用。運賃と品位による相対価格比の変化を1倍とする独自仮定で、同じ価格系列ではない。2031→2036年は実質維持。共通CPIを一度だけ掛ける。","conditions":[{"multiplier":0.6,"condition":"中国建設需要が一段と弱まり、スクラップ・電炉化とアフリカ・ブラジル供給の立上げが重なる。高コスト供給の退出が遅れる低価格ストレス。"},{"multiplier":0.8,"condition":"新規供給と既存鉱山の生産性改善が需要回復を上回る。高品位需要の増加だけでは標準鉱の価格を支えられない。"},{"multiplier":1,"condition":"公表2026→2031年の実質価格変化率を適用し、その後2036年まで実質水準を維持。FOB/CFR・61/62%の相対差維持を近似する。"},{"multiplier":1.35,"condition":"新鉱山の鉄道・港湾・選鉱の立上げが遅れ、インド等の需要増と既存鉱山の減耗が供給余力を減らす。"},{"multiplier":1.85,"condition":"複数生産地域の障害と新規案件の遅延が長引き、適合品位の供給が制約される。短期の瞬間高値をそのまま持続させる条件ではない。"}],"source_discrepancies":["豪州の暦年2026年輸出はExcel935.9667Mtに対しPDF表3.2は937Mt。Excelの精度を優先し、PDF値で黙って補正しない。","その他アフリカ・その他アジア輸入・インド輸入はExcelにないため、PDF表3.2の整数丸め値を別由来として保持。その他アフリカをギニア単独としない。","鋼材のExcelにはロシア・ブラジルがあり、PDFのその他アジア・中東と掲載地域が異なる。掲載国の合計を世界全体にしない。","価格の2025年は62%Fe、2026年以降は61%Fe。実質変化率は同じ61%Fe基準の2026年から計算し、2025年を価格比の起点にしない。","鉄鉱石貿易はdry Mt。豪州の会計年度生産wet Mtは水分・期間が違うため、この暦年の輸出表に混ぜない。"],"owner_cash_lens":["鉄鋼会社では鉄鉱石が安くても、鋼材売価がそれ以上に下がれば現金は増えない。原料炭・電力・契約改定時期・在庫を合わせて見る。","鉱山のC1操業費だけで安全余裕を判断しない。剥土・鉱床更新、鉄道港湾の維持、ロイヤルティ、運転資金と追加開発費を確認する。","CFRの上昇が運賃由来なら、FOB受取価格や鉱山の利益が同じだけ増えるとは限らない。品位・水分・船積み・販売の段階をそろえる。"],"source_curve":{"years":[2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031],"flags":["historical","f","f","z","z","z","z"],"groups":{"ore_imports":[{"group":"ore_imports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":10,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"China","unit":"Mt","values":[1259.96259691108,1247.48869266423,1245.96555706195,1225.28222482072,1189.07555927768,1156.96693869123,1152.28734110199],"shares":[0.7225685352710988,0.7063014470620381,0.6951856787606893,0.670419801634622,0.635572756488337,0.623079203055064,0.6270848496822865],"change_2025_2031":-0.08545908908174438,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.014778555231081292},{"group":"ore_imports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":11,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Japan","unit":"Mt","values":[95.7748063351158,92.4895430579954,90.4313210979327,87.1630035508241,86.0688523592878,85.7408658620122,83.224059757305],"shares":[0.05492533008447848,0.05236560337910144,0.0504560972671947,0.04769170919701501,0.046004660776149786,0.0461753474399075,0.045291261251684596],"change_2025_2031":-0.13104434305923596,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.023138629894418505},{"group":"ore_imports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":12,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"South Korea","unit":"Mt","values":[68.519955613227,64.7730880652157,63.8043093465919,62.6938216539396,63.0416311068878,63.5902281330317,63.7087591015527],"shares":[0.03929510612907842,0.036673138682670546,0.03559957323825291,0.03430326387302357,0.033696381145421186,0.034246223761622376,0.03467086394131105],"change_2025_2031":-0.07021598990565525,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.012060509789938889},{"group":"ore_imports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":13,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"European Union","unit":"Mt","values":[99.6476917811516,101.961206718292,107.532054647774,111.394800091648,112.513358819886,113.487279824225,115.093062901506],"shares":[0.05714636836837314,0.05772825699567657,0.059997440519238575,0.060950267838495886,0.06013951346401927,0.06111805057260722,0.06263465150978928],"change_2025_2031":0.15499978819655813,"cagr_2025_2031":0.0243074169544768},{"group":"ore_imports","sheet":null,"row":null,"columns":null,"label":"Rest of Asia","unit":"dry Mt","pdf_page":38,"pdf_table":"3.2","precision":"rounded_integer","values":[68,73,76,78,83,90,98],"shares":[0.03899691984420259,0.04133104046451386,0.042404150970591754,0.04267812220580597,0.04436432855501396,0.048469084465274904,0.0533324571717435],"change_2025_2031":0.4411764705882353,"cagr_2025_2031":0.06280321746772732},{"group":"ore_imports","sheet":null,"row":null,"columns":null,"label":"India","unit":"dry Mt","pdf_page":38,"pdf_table":"3.2","precision":"rounded_integer","values":[10,16,26,34,41,48,55],"shares":[0.005734841153559204,0.009058858184003038,0.01450668322678139,0.01860328403842824,0.021914909286211714,0.025850178381479946,0.029931481065774413],"change_2025_2031":4.5,"cagr_2025_2031":0.3285985728063354},{"label":"Unlisted remainder","values":[141.82240967342545,170.51447901454685,182.5441236325994,229.10044981438705,296.1730471666817,299.06841173262,270.2169641383339],"unit":"Mt","sheet":null,"derived":true,"shares":[0.08133289914920933,0.09654165523199637,0.10185037601725146,0.12535355121260933,0.15830745028484716,0.16106191232404413,0.14705443537741061],"change_2025_2031":0.9053192281851834,"cagr_2025_2031":0.11342582891318864}],"ore_exports":[{"group":"ore_exports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":15,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Australia","unit":"Mt","values":[923.09249997,935.966705675741,945.573721657106,949.622543228625,934.822203735286,915.174814169392,905.008868628617],"shares":[0.5293788857369803,0.5299243532290655,0.5275822479864767,0.5195911147346092,0.4996717998437883,0.49286317076076136,0.4925137421039159],"change_2025_2031":-0.019590270034661295,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.003292019862894624},{"group":"ore_exports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":16,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Brazil","unit":"Mt","values":[413.232423,426.232423,437.232423,451.232423,462.232423,467.232423,470.232423],"shares":[0.23698223054053846,0.24132369208631216,0.24395354834381097,0.24689426271815296,0.2470678443705083,0.2516258641700228,0.2559045975552314],"change_2025_2031":0.13793690143234483,"cagr_2025_2031":0.02176972447767045},{"group":"ore_exports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":17,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"South Africa","unit":"Mt","values":[61.160228,61.160228,60.160228,59.160228,59.160228,58.160228,58.160228],"shares":[0.035074419249546386,0.03462761449708073,0.033566360401805544,0.03236983897829928,0.03162173243833176,0.03132192226057385,0.03165130478478405],"change_2025_2031":-0.04905148489636113,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.008347523571899496},{"group":"ore_exports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":18,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Canada","unit":"Mt","values":[61.888015,62.888015,63.888015,64.888015,64.888015,65.888015,65.888015],"shares":[0.03549179353340893,0.03560585058490349,0.03564627675357146,0.0355038286392586,0.03468329176798402,0.03548368626982555,0.035856834062435644],"change_2025_2031":0.06463286954671266,"cagr_2025_2031":0.010493005533696476},{"group":"ore_exports","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":19,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"India","unit":"Mt","values":[23.885894,19.885894,17.885894,16.885894,15.885894,14.885894,13.885894],"shares":[0.013698180790075287,0.011258968350507307,0.009979423018684227,0.00923920830367033,0.008491168925375,0.008016729484745877,0.007556824969860919],"change_2025_2031":-0.4186571371370902,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.086436532655642},{"group":"ore_exports","sheet":null,"row":null,"columns":null,"label":"Other Africa","unit":"dry Mt","pdf_page":38,"pdf_table":"3.2","precision":"rounded_integer","values":[34,54,84,114,134,154,159],"shares":[0.019498459922101294,0.030573646371010253,0.046867745809601416,0.06237571707002411,0.07162433766713097,0.08293598897391483,0.08652919071742057],"change_2025_2031":3.6764705882352944,"cagr_2025_2031":0.29316229868066435},{"label":"Unlisted remainder","values":[226.46840034399997,206.09374384453918,183.53708412974197,171.84519670289387,199.88368499513717,181.51235007372702,165.3547583720706],"unit":"Mt","sheet":null,"derived":true,"shares":[0.12987603022734923,0.11668587488112059,0.10240439768604971,0.0940260295559855,0.10683982498688167,0.0977526380801558,0.08998750580635154],"change_2025_2031":-0.2698550520915909,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.05106853486474772}],"ore_world_trade":[{"group":"ore_world_trade","sheet":"Steel-making iron ore","row":20,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"World trade","unit":"Mt","values":[1743.727460314,1766.22700952028,1792.277365786848,1827.6342999315189,1870.8724487304232,1856.853724243119,1837.5301870006876]}],"steel_consumption":[{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":10,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"China","unit":"Mt","values":[831.79664,811.6376568,815.3053229064,817.611429364528,822.510823663725,824.848486018681,820.921819364886],"shares":[0.45865557967316506,0.4497887897023652,0.441663065755516,0.4342277627976167,0.4295278241390218,0.42438284476453225,0.4177671442829914],"change_2025_2031":-0.013073893440004758,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.0021909478719902564},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":11,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"European Union","unit":"Mt","values":[142.455897900023,142.243618410522,144.815221633964,147.511526066644,149.819222009777,151.066510339923,152.128241953662],"shares":[0.07855068088420779,0.07882776807079482,0.07844856761994164,0.07834234900625779,0.07823790592495597,0.0777234079875067,0.07741806796528156],"change_2025_2031":0.06789711199200177,"cagr_2025_2031":0.011008721358539253},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":12,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"United States","unit":"Mt","values":[99.8847927866663,100.585368822733,102.398832305656,104.046808951769,106.015604703949,107.905838774508,108.992803001028],"shares":[0.05507682447010414,0.055741833717914184,0.055470976253019125,0.05525853902565054,0.05536298210695285,0.055517331488187466,0.05546644148448342],"change_2025_2031":0.09118515401853577,"cagr_2025_2031":0.014650346702780315},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":13,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"India","unit":"Mt","values":[162.6498243433,174.336575221583,186.54631645168,196.077242780713,206.410555907986,217.006714246605,227.893788103318],"shares":[0.08968568263020964,0.09661286229489686,0.10105492471917345,0.10413526451601733,0.10779077236159323,0.11164950689246031,0.11597515720731331],"change_2025_2031":0.4011314738484413,"cagr_2025_2031":0.05782334729899197},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":14,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Japan","unit":"Mt","values":[54.2982,54.026709,53.769323307,53.34470977314,53.0515698392834,52.6473433868726,52.2264641641282],"shares":[0.029940217594783086,0.029940217594783092,0.02912764520009823,0.02833100559746615,0.027704347109653395,0.027086949584714602,0.026578049547673024],"change_2025_2031":-0.03815477927208999,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.006462649084958527},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":15,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"South Korea","unit":"Mt","values":[46.7318430239587,46.0981838088389,46.0584420364422,45.879610877171,45.6595642620829,45.3444577260141,44.9432467610003],"shares":[0.025768101866039197,0.0255464321167692,0.02495054569400029,0.02436634331873674,0.023844127912226103,0.023329629974777107,0.022871619941439714],"change_2025_2031":-0.03827360846952721,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.006483107560898871},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":16,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Russia","unit":"Mt","values":[44.142,40.92129,39.86247967,40.8597292634,42.2543446608778,43.7881598307909,44.9698295889296],"shares":[0.02434005335478736,0.022677530235262366,0.02159410037568262,0.021700318989366914,0.0220658697739245,0.022528917917628573,0.0228851479435576],"change_2025_2031":0.01875378525960758,"cagr_2025_2031":0.003101483203894251},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":17,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Brazil","unit":"Mt","values":[29.042068514,28.94685817143,29.4126359093729,30.0008886275603,30.5109037342289,30.9685672902423,31.309221530435],"shares":[0.016013898263879073,0.01604160698253783,0.015933263996579804,0.015933263996579784,0.015933263996579884,0.015933263996579877,0.015933263996579867],"change_2025_2031":0.07806444693641912,"cagr_2025_2031":0.012606678317797826},{"group":"steel_consumption","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":18,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"World steel consumption","unit":"Mt","values":[1813.55395391185,1804.48618414229,1845.98936637757,1882.90915370512,1914.9186093181,1943.64238845787,1965.02245473091],"shares":[1,1,1,1,1,1,1],"change_2025_2031":0.08352026168967375,"cagr_2025_2031":0.013458974448522731},{"label":"Unlisted remainder","values":[402.5526873439019,405.68992390718336,427.82079215705494,447.57720800019456,458.68602053619,470.06631084423316,481.637040263523],"unit":"Mt","sheet":null,"derived":true,"shares":[0.22196896126282464,0.2248229592846765,0.23175691038598892,0.23770515275230802,0.2395329066750923,0.2418481473936131,0.2451051076306801],"change_2025_2031":0.19645714811005366,"cagr_2025_2031":0.030345451235097354}],"steel_production":[{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":20,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"China","unit":null,"values":[960.81,932.560856055688,932.917760644565,933.154767594115,930.006329079184,929.17659262471,926.422633069121],"shares":[0.519338082498794,0.5117449989952892,0.4994544890161925,0.48834934017281884,0.4799819161079746,0.47386727676212986,0.4677849458250338],"change_2025_2031":-0.03578997609400292,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.006055945222769421},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":21,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"European Union","unit":"Mt","values":[126.135958,128.765318204311,133.390372346488,136.926880368983,139.312659966464,141.485937962964,143.093834712736],"shares":[0.06817914734637276,0.07066027617092938,0.07141296164622755,0.07165815789862666,0.07190011011538909,0.07215588151360672,0.07225335319932681],"change_2025_2031":0.13444125673296115,"cagr_2025_2031":0.021245922114711435},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":22,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"India","unit":"Mt","values":[164.894,177.448565063276,188.892939043486,201.192911483089,213.263773468771,224.625274912227,235.660473681934],"shares":[0.08912868701986464,0.09737532425937365,0.10112727008600202,0.10529060021150825,0.11006672903754208,0.11455579935986768,0.11899366226535221],"change_2025_2031":0.4291634242721627,"cagr_2025_2031":0.06132154892059449},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":23,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Japan","unit":"Mt","values":[80.670823,77.8744468496341,77.8248890252488,77.5965003920807,76.6651722034953,76.3859940855615,75.9460950139615],"shares":[0.04360428235594926,0.04273378886325993,0.04166496964747648,0.0406086975946041,0.03956736110539782,0.03895580591181865,0.038347983602294175],"change_2025_2031":-0.05856799038778249,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.010008436964270118},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":24,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"United States","unit":"Mt","values":[81.937006,85.7218519186936,87.6688400787105,88.6645398547811,90.2856425325575,91.3700592617043,92.4792634647025],"shares":[0.044288680989719276,0.04704007115369061,0.046935107864065025,0.04640095195188715,0.04659696858485236,0.0465974729708089,0.046696189952158906],"change_2025_2031":0.12866295681712492,"cagr_2025_2031":0.020377120234323254},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":25,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Russia","unit":"Mt","values":[67.900997,64.8940017769951,63.7193359287056,65.1698474711204,64.6673773673743,64.0440942835988,64.681383568189],"shares":[0.03670192190103805,0.03561073860061907,0.034113305276484956,0.03410543793688014,0.03337522630539754,0.032661606837446046,0.0326600154489922],"change_2025_2031":-0.04741629098334155,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.008063529312277162},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":26,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"South Korea","unit":"Mt","values":[62.233335,61.110393160771,61.1409631103633,61.0327803886407,61.3733339141739,61.9104862249196,62.026544425387],"shares":[0.03363843097636898,0.03353447432796066,0.03273292649841491,0.031940380167107894,0.03167515046830564,0.0315734960859816,0.0313194892784737],"change_2025_2031":-0.0033228264982584355,"cagr_2025_2031":-0.0005545727253509769},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":27,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"Brazil","unit":"Mt","values":[33.346674,33.0521313142556,33.8799544772729,36.1512001958528,37.6490804920376,39.601281878408,41.495345888204],"shares":[0.018024581064801978,0.01813743606797481,0.01813824976345924,0.018919063991514815,0.01943091915531787,0.020196108844069943,0.02095253012547707],"change_2025_2031":0.24436235794322392,"cagr_2025_2031":0.03710917781226608},{"group":"steel_production","sheet":"Steel-making steel","row":28,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"World steel production","unit":"Mt","values":[1850.0665219409,1822.31552411179,1867.87341221458,1910.83450069552,1937.58618370525,1960.83721790972,1980.44559008881],"shares":[1,1,1,1,1,1,1],"change_2025_2031":0.07047263793040792,"cagr_2025_2031":0.011414700916211995},{"label":"Unlisted remainder","values":[272.13772894089993,260.8879597681655,288.43835755973987,310.9450729468574,324.3628146811925,332.23749667562674,338.6400162645748],"unit":"Mt","sheet":null,"derived":true,"shares":[0.14709618584709103,0.14316289156090256,0.1544207202016773,0.16272737007505217,0.16740561911982302,0.16943655171427058,0.17099183030289108],"change_2025_2031":0.24436996509997755,"cagr_2025_2031":0.03711023450232376}],"prices":[{"group":"prices","sheet":"Steel-making","row":12,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"– nominal","unit":"US$/t","values":[86.9813628808475,87.7440864976688,82.2403156045025,79.2729265370907,76.1407568087173,72.8855397771991,70.3941006686667]},{"group":"prices","sheet":"Steel-making","row":13,"columns":"HIJKLMN","label":"– real b","unit":"US$/t","values":[88.4415672568351,87.7486989552071,80.5093642726407,76.6918809292811,72.0873047165766,67.5305169029519,63.8281218245105]}]},"source_real_ratio_2026_2031":0.7273967886075747,"source_price_base_year":2026,"source_quantity_cells":217,"source_price_cells":14,"world_trade_is_production":false,"world_trade_difference_is_shortage":false,"source_country_quantities_through":2031,"country_2036_quantities":null,"country_quantity_cases_reestimated":false},"derived_cases":[{"multiplier":0.6,"condition":"中国建設需要が一段と弱まり、スクラップ・電炉化とアフリカ・ブラジル供給の立上げが重なる。高コスト供給の退出が遅れる低価格ストレス。","real_2026_usd_dmt":44.62942996501774,"nominal_2036_usd_dmt":59.9806489263573},{"multiplier":0.8,"condition":"新規供給と既存鉱山の生産性改善が需要回復を上回る。高品位需要の増加だけでは標準鉱の価格を支えられない。","real_2026_usd_dmt":59.50590662002366,"nominal_2036_usd_dmt":79.9741985684764},{"multiplier":1,"condition":"公表2026→2031年の実質価格変化率を適用し、その後2036年まで実質水準を維持。FOB/CFR・61/62%の相対差維持を近似する。","real_2026_usd_dmt":74.38238327502957,"nominal_2036_usd_dmt":99.96774821059549},{"multiplier":1.35,"condition":"新鉱山の鉄道・港湾・選鉱の立上げが遅れ、インド等の需要増と既存鉱山の減耗が供給余力を減らす。","real_2026_usd_dmt":100.41621742128993,"nominal_2036_usd_dmt":134.95646008430393},{"multiplier":1.85,"condition":"複数生産地域の障害と新規案件の遅延が長引き、適合品位の供給が制約される。短期の瞬間高値をそのまま持続させる条件ではない。","real_2026_usd_dmt":137.6074090588047,"nominal_2036_usd_dmt":184.94033418960166}],"frozen_reference_value":102.25833333333333}},"fx_quote":{"value":157.804001,"period_end":"2026-10-29"}}],"owner_review":null,"company_price_risk":{"schema_version":1,"ticker":"5411","name":"JFEホールディングス","kind":"integrated_steel_coking","version":"jfe-coking-owner-cash-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","review_due":"2026-11-07","financial_period_start":"2025-04-01","financial_period_end":"2026-03-31","sources":[{"id":"financial_report","title":"JFE Holdings Financial Report for Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026","url":"https://www.jfe-holdings.co.jp/en/common/pdf/investor/library/top/2025/financial_report_2025.pdf","file":"financial-report-fy2025.pdf","sha256":"09fefe344885cfe790bf4d62ec5964d1ddb4dfb1292277be5ff45cb22926935a","pdf_pages":[5,11,12]},{"id":"feb_q3_transcript","title":"JFE 2026年3月期第3四半期インベスターズ・ミーティング質疑要旨","url":"https://www.jfe-holdings.co.jp/common/pdf/investor/library/top/2025/2025-setumei260206-02.pdf","file":"q3-2026-transcript.pdf","sha256":"466915c4a3775c18fdb0fb4402961dc1340f11340ca6ce6638fa84594aec5a6b","published_on":"2026-02-06","pdf_pages":[23,24,25]},{"id":"group_report_2026","title":"JFE GROUP REPORT 2026","url":"https://www.jfe-holdings.co.jp/common/pdf/investor/library/group-report/2026/all.pdf","file":"group-report-2026.pdf","sha256":"d48af7832e32bec27277b64ddd7b81909cc5066092d9b7d574b672d653c5a99a","published_on":"2026-09-30","pdf_pages":[10,15,16]},{"id":"blackwater_release","title":"JFEスチール 豪州ブラックウォーター製鉄用原料炭事業への出資について","url":"https://www.jfe-steel.co.jp/release/2024/08/240822.html","file":"blackwater-2024.html","sha256":"4829b9bd27d3e89acdf2b1415e2d6da6cec4fcb5b6b3af5e181566ecbc896797","published_on":"2024-08-22"}],"fy2025_million_jpy":{"revenue":4539270,"business_profit":135385,"profit_attributable_parent":70165,"operating_cashflow":379081,"depreciation_amortization_cfo_adjustment":274292,"purchase_ppe_intangibles_investment_property":-321720,"total_investing_cashflow":-452784,"cash_dividends_to_parent_owners":-57334,"treasury_share_purchase":-655,"cash_interest_paid":-26071,"cash_income_taxes_paid":-49499,"cash_and_equivalents_end":167807},"prior_fy2024_million_jpy":{"operating_cashflow":378968,"purchase_ppe_intangibles_investment_property":-279417,"cash_dividends_to_parent_owners":-63672,"business_profit":135339,"profit_attributable_parent":91867},"feb2026_pass_through":{"domestic_shipments_formula_share_approx":0.5,"raw_material_to_steel_price_lag_quarters":1,"q1_2026_coal_cost_pass_through_next_fiscal_year_oku":100,"scope":"2026年2月の会社見込み。国内出荷の約半分で主原料連動。残る国内交渉分野・輸出の転嫁率は未確認。"},"blackwater":{"announced_interest_percent":10,"announced_acquisition_usd_million":360,"announced_acquisition_jpy_oku_approx":540,"long_term_offtake_announced":true,"revenue_or_distribution_yield_verified":false},"group_report_2026":{"fy2024_debt_ebitda_reported":4.5,"fy2025_debt_ebitda_reported":4.8,"medium_term_target_debt_ebitda_approx":3,"three_year_investment_plan_oku":16800,"three_year_operating_cashflow_plan_oku":14100,"plan_review_needed_in_company_view":true},"analysis":{"business_quality":"高炉・製鋼・電磁鋼板等の製造技術と顧客関係は強みの候補だが、原料と鋼材の国際市況に挟まれる。国内の主原料連動部分も四半期の遅れがあり、輸出・交渉分野は鋼材需給次第。恒久的な価格決定力として全出荷へ広げない。","coking_transmission":"原料炭CIF高は調達負担になり得るが、会社は国内出荷の約半分で主原料連動の販売価格を採用と説明した。2026年2月時点の約100億円は特定四半期の原料炭高を翌年度に転嫁する見込みであり、1 USD/t当たりの利益係数や2036年の転嫁率ではない。日本の全輸入CIF平均は会社の品位・契約価格ではない。","coal_equity":"ブラックウォーター炭鉱の10%権益と長期オフテイクは調達確保と上流収益の候補。炭鉱利益・配当・調達価格式・受渡量が未確認なので、原料炭高のコストと相殺する数量ヘッジ率は計算しない。2024年の取得発表額は2026年通期の設備取得CFへ再加算しない。","owner_cash":"2026年3月期の連結営業CFから確認できる有形・無形・投資不動産の取得支出を引いた小計は57,361百万円。維持更新投資と成長投資、運転資本の平常値、子会社・持分会社から親会社へ届く現金を未分離なので、株主利益でも会社FCFでもない。投資CF全体を引くとマイナスだが、買収・金融投資を含むため維持費とはしない。","capital_allocation":"最新の統合報告書は利益・営業CFが中計の想定を下回り、Debt/EBITDAが2025年度4.8倍で目標約3倍より高いとして投資の厳選・資産売却を掲げる。計画中の投資を全額成長と呼ばず、更新・脱炭素対応のうち競争力維持に必要な額と、海外投資の回収を分ける。配当は株主利益の分配であり、借入は株主利益ではない。","failure_case":"原料炭高と鋼材需要の弱さが重なり、交渉分野・輸出の値上げが遅れる。大型更新・電炉/GX設備と海外投資が同時に資金を要し、配当維持のために資産売却・借入への依存が高まる。","good_case":"品質や技術が販売単価に反映され、原料コストの時間差を吸収できる。更新投資を賄いながら海外案件の投下資本収益が現金で戻り、借入負担が下がる。","next_evidence":["国内連動契約の原料指数・受渡時期と輸出/交渉分野の鋼材売価・数量","高炉・コークス炉の年間維持更新投資とGX/電炉投資の必須部分","ブラックウォーター炭鉱の実際の受取現金・オフテイク量・価格式","JJSL等の持分法利益に対応する配当・追加出資と借換条件"]},"linked_assets":["jp_strong_coking_coal_import_uv","wb_iron_ore_62fe_cfr_usd_dmt"],"owner_earnings_oku":null,"net_profit_sensitivity_2036":null,"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"financial_baseline_written":false,"derived":{"cash_after_selected_asset_purchases_million_jpy":57361,"cash_after_all_investing_million_jpy":-73703,"prior_cash_after_selected_asset_purchases_million_jpy":99551,"purchase_outflow_yoy_increase_million_jpy":42303,"selected_purchase_share_of_cfo":0.8486840543313962,"selected_subtotal_is_owner_earnings":false,"company_coal_profit_slope_known":false,"2036_price_case_to_cash_enabled":false},"stored_at":"2026-10-26T16:37:22+00:00","needs_review":false},"kikkoman_capital_plan":null,"inpex_reserve_capital":null,"price_assumption_audit":null,"company_price_basis_audit":null,"property_appraisal":null,"lynas_jare":null,"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"note":"AI本文の言及候補、会社開示で確認した関係、独自検討で選んだ検証対象を区別。数量・転嫁率・ヘッジを確認してから評価へ接続する。株価評価への自動反映は無効。","macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}