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oxide/year","kind":"設計出力能力","source_url":"https://www.arultd.com/projects/nolans/project-update/","source_note":"会社のProject Updateにある設計出力。元の能力根拠は2021年5月11日発表を参照している。現在の生産や独立した需要予測ではない。","model_gap":"資金実行の条件、工事、出荷開始、立上げを直近の発表で照合してから年次化する。会社の希望する販売価格をこちらの価格見通しに転用しない。"}],"projects":[{"id":"eneabba_ndpr","flow_id":"iluka_eneabba_ndpr_oxide","name":"Eneabba・NdPr酸化物","country":"Australia","country_ja":"豪州","stage":"分離・精製後の酸化物","material":"NdPr oxide","unit":"t NdPr oxide/year","source_date":"2026-06-22","source_url":"https://www.iluka.com/media/gayke2yz/23jun26-iluka-rare-earths-offtake-agreement.pdf","source_page":1,"source_note":"会社の発表。稼働開始予定は2027年。既存ストックパイルのみで定常時NdPr約3,500t/年、追加原料を使えば5,500t/年の設備能力。実生産や受注済み原料ではない。","plant_output_capacity":5500,"stockpile_output_limit":3500,"feedstock_horizon_verified_through":null,"company_commissioning_year":2027,"model_kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","assumptions_note":"開始年・立上げ年数・有効出荷率・追加原料の確保は当分析の比較仮定。会社の年次予測ではない。原料限度は完成酸化物換算のため回収率を重ねて控除しない。2036年までの原料持続性は未確認。","scenarios":[{"rank":0,"label":"供給が最も順調","first_output_year":2027,"ramp_years":2,"effective_output_fraction":0.95,"feedstock_output_limit":5500,"condition":"会社予定年から出荷、追加原料を確保し短期間で立ち上がる。原料継続と認証の成立が必要。"},{"rank":1,"label":"供給が順調","first_output_year":2028,"ramp_years":3,"effective_output_fraction":0.9,"feedstock_output_limit":5500,"condition":"追加原料を確保するが立上げに時間がかかる。"},{"rank":2,"label":"原料制約が残る","first_output_year":2028,"ramp_years":4,"effective_output_fraction":0.85,"feedstock_output_limit":3500,"condition":"追加原料を数えず既存原料による出力限度を使う。2036年まで維持できる保証はない。"},{"rank":3,"label":"遅延・低稼働","first_output_year":2030,"ramp_years":5,"effective_output_fraction":0.75,"feedstock_output_limit":3500,"condition":"工事・分離技術・認証や原料調達に遅れが続く。"},{"rank":4,"label":"2036年まで稼働しない","first_output_year":null,"ramp_years":5,"effective_output_fraction":0,"feedstock_output_limit":0,"condition":"開発停止等の失敗ケース。確率を推定したものではない。"}],"owner_cash_lens":"供給が増えるだけでは株主価値は確定しない。原料の取得費、建設費の超過、立上げ中の現金流出、維持投資、借入返済、価格保護契約の対象数量と期間を差し引いて検討する。","contract_note":"同じ発表の顧客契約は2028年から4年間、Nd/Pr/Dy/Tbを合わせた1,200t。NdPrだけの年間需要やスポット価格に読み替えない。最低売上は最低価格販売を仮定した契約値で、無条件の回収保証ではない。","shared_feedstock_group":"iluka_eneabba_refinery","co_product_note":"Dy/Tb酸化物との共同産出。追加原料の元素構成が変わるため、両製品の上限を同時に達成できると確認していない。二系列を独立案件・同一元素の加算可能な供給とは扱わない。","source_pdf_sha256":"6398746d2604d543e0885efd02a67d040b2cb8c209bdf9ec3be41afe270913d1","annual":[{"year":2026,"values":[0,0,0,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[0,0,0,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2027,"values":[2612.5,0,0,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[2612.5,0,0,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2028,"values":[5225,1650,743.75,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[7837.5,1650,743.75,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2029,"values":[5225,3300,1487.5,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[13062.5,4950,2231.25,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2030,"values":[5225,4950,2231.25,525,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[18287.5,9900,4462.5,525,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2031,"values":[5225,4950,2975,1050,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[23512.5,14850,7437.5,1575,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2032,"values":[5225,4950,2975,1575,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[28737.5,19800,10412.5,3150,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2033,"values":[5225,4950,2975,2100,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[33962.5,24750,13387.5,5250,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2034,"values":[5225,4950,2975,2625,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[39187.5,29700,16362.5,7875,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2035,"values":[5225,4950,2975,2625,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[44412.5,34650,19337.5,10500,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2036,"values":[5225,4950,2975,2625,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[49637.5,39600,22312.5,13125,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false}]},{"id":"eneabba_dytb","flow_id":"iluka_eneabba_dytb_oxide","name":"Eneabba・Dy/Tb合算酸化物","country":"Australia","country_ja":"豪州","stage":"分離・精製後の酸化物","material":"DyTb combined oxide","unit":"t DyTb oxide/year (combined)","source_date":"2026-06-22","source_url":"https://www.iluka.com/media/gayke2yz/23jun26-iluka-rare-earths-offtake-agreement.pdf","source_page":1,"source_note":"Ilukaの2026年6月発表脚注1。既存ストックパイルのみでは定常時Dy/Tb合算170t/年、追加原料を組み合わせた設備能力は750t/年。DyとTbの内訳、元素重量、実生産ではない。","plant_output_capacity":750,"stockpile_output_limit":170,"feedstock_horizon_verified_through":null,"company_commissioning_year":2027,"model_kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","assumptions_note":"NdPrと同じ製油所・原料群からの共同産出。開始年・立上げ年数・有効出荷率をNdPrと共通の比較仮定に置き、会社のDy/Tb個別年次計画とは呼ばない。追加原料の品位・継続性とDy/Tb内訳は未確認。","scenarios":[{"rank":0,"label":"供給が最も順調","first_output_year":2027,"ramp_years":2,"effective_output_fraction":0.95,"feedstock_output_limit":750,"condition":"会社予定年から出荷、追加原料を確保し短期間で立ち上がる。原料継続と認証の成立が必要。 Dy/Tb酸化物はNdPrと共同産出で、原料の元素構成が実現条件。"},{"rank":1,"label":"供給が順調","first_output_year":2028,"ramp_years":3,"effective_output_fraction":0.9,"feedstock_output_limit":750,"condition":"追加原料を確保するが立上げに時間がかかる。 Dy/Tb酸化物はNdPrと共同産出で、原料の元素構成が実現条件。"},{"rank":2,"label":"原料制約が残る","first_output_year":2028,"ramp_years":4,"effective_output_fraction":0.85,"feedstock_output_limit":170,"condition":"追加原料を数えず既存原料による出力限度を使う。2036年まで維持できる保証はない。 Dy/Tb酸化物はNdPrと共同産出で、原料の元素構成が実現条件。"},{"rank":3,"label":"遅延・低稼働","first_output_year":2030,"ramp_years":5,"effective_output_fraction":0.75,"feedstock_output_limit":170,"condition":"工事・分離技術・認証や原料調達に遅れが続く。 Dy/Tb酸化物はNdPrと共同産出で、原料の元素構成が実現条件。"},{"rank":4,"label":"2036年まで稼働しない","first_output_year":null,"ramp_years":5,"effective_output_fraction":0,"feedstock_output_limit":0,"condition":"開発停止等の失敗ケース。確率を推定したものではない。 Dy/Tb酸化物はNdPrと共同産出で、原料の元素構成が実現条件。"}],"owner_cash_lens":"重希土類の高値や設備能力だけで株主利益を決めない。170t/年を超えるには適した追加原料、分離の歩留まり、顧客認証と資本費が必要。契約価格式は非公開で、建設費・運転資金・維持投資と借入返済後の現金を確認する。","contract_note":"同一の2028年開始4年間の顧客契約はNd・Pr・Dy・Tb合算1,200tで、Dy/Tbだけの年間販売量ではない。取引価格の市場連動条件は非公開。契約枠と750t/年の設備能力は別。","shared_feedstock_group":"iluka_eneabba_refinery","co_product_note":"NdPr酸化物と同じ原料・設備からの共同産出。両製品の上限の同時達成は未確認。Dy/Tb合算をDy単独に割らず、NdPrのtと加算して希土類供給量や世界シェアを作らない。","source_pdf_sha256":"6398746d2604d543e0885efd02a67d040b2cb8c209bdf9ec3be41afe270913d1","annual":[{"year":2026,"values":[0,0,0,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[0,0,0,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2027,"values":[356.25,0,0,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[356.25,0,0,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2028,"values":[712.5,225,36.125,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[1068.75,225,36.125,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2029,"values":[712.5,450,72.25,0,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[1781.25,675,108.375,0,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2030,"values":[712.5,675,108.375,25.5,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[2493.75,1350,216.75,25.5,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2031,"values":[712.5,675,144.5,51,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[3206.25,2025,361.25,76.5,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2032,"values":[712.5,675,144.5,76.5,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[3918.75,2700,505.75,153,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2033,"values":[712.5,675,144.5,102,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[4631.25,3375,650.25,255,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2034,"values":[712.5,675,144.5,127.5,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[5343.75,4050,794.75,382.5,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2035,"values":[712.5,675,144.5,127.5,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[6056.25,4725,939.25,510,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false},{"year":2036,"values":[712.5,675,144.5,127.5,0],"kind":"analyst_conditional_stress","observed":false,"cumulative_finished_output":[6768.75,5400,1083.75,637.5,0],"feedstock_continuity_verified":false}]}],"source_evidence":{"file":"iluka-offtake-2026.pdf","sha256":"6398746d2604d543e0885efd02a67d040b2cb8c209bdf9ec3be41afe270913d1","page":1,"url":"https://www.iluka.com/media/gayke2yz/23jun26-iluka-rare-earths-offtake-agreement.pdf","published_on":"2026-06-22","scope":"脚注1のEneabba既存原料でNdPr約3,500t/年・DyTb170t/年、追加原料で設備能力NdPr5,500t/年・DyTb750t/年。会社の見込みであり、将来の実生産ではない。"},"calculation_version":3,"country_total":null,"world_balance":null,"price_forecast":null,"no_world_gap_reason":"選択案件のみ。NdPr酸化物とDy/Tb合算酸化物は同じ製油所の共同産出で、国の総生産ではない。4元素合計のkt REE需要とも同一物質基準ではなく、原料の2036年までの持続性も未確認。","needs_review":false,"input_sha":"97d2ee0d76795fd797c972ec40f0a911e0a7b9ee5aed0507a04174ca233d8d77"},"automatic_valuation_enabled":false,"macro":{"version":"jp-coking-cif-relative-20261027-r1","as_of":"2026-10-27","target_date":"2036-10-25","jp_cpi":0.03,"jp_short_rate":0.02,"jp_long_rate":0.03,"usd_jpy_terminal":150,"basis":"日本CPI3%、短期2%、長期3%、2036年ドル円150円。"}}