株譜kabufu

米国株 銘柄分析スクリーニング — 予想PER・モンテカルロ現在価値

S&P 500・Russell 1000・Russell 2000・楽天証券取扱ADRを含む3221銘柄米国株分析。数年先の予想PER、MOAT・成長・耐性・還元・見通しに、実績の自社株買い・買い時品質・株数減少・SBCを加えた資本還元スコアとMC現在価値乖離率を一覧化。

vNextモンテカルロ — 構造検証をサイトへ反映済み
構造・再現性検証 PASS シャドー運用 runtime 7cfb1f8bce0c
価格や5.6Solの評価値に合わせ込まず、共通乱数、業種別カーネル、営業流動性準備、売上予想アンカーを検証しています。現在は時点整合データとwalk-forward校正が未充足のため、下の既存ランキング値は置換していません。
検証銘柄5年FV中央値10年FV中央値5年損失確率短期資金不足検証
AAPL 110.21 119.06 96.3% 0.00% PASS
COST 375.03 495.01 77.6% 0.00% PASS
as-of 2026-08-02T02:26:18+09:00 / 代表3銘柄で全規模検証済み。PIT・walk-forward校正完了までは参考表示です。
算定方法と表示の前提
MC現在価値はモンテカルロ・シミュレーションで算出した 配当の現在価値 + 10年後株価を資本コストで割り引いた現在価値(fv_p50)。売上成長・利益率・株数から10年後EPS/BPSを先に作り、配当は総リターン、内部留保と自社株買いはBPS/株に反映。そのEPS/BPSの黒字/赤字・ROE・成長性・利益率・安定性に応じて出口PER/PBR/PSRを評価し、TOB・景気後退・競争優位低下・回復・希薄化などの事象タグもシナリオ内で発生させた結果を、資本コストで現在価値に戻しています。 乖離率=(MC現在価値 − 株価)÷ 株価。
予想PERは現在株価÷TradingView等の年次予想EPSです。予想値の楽観バイアスと業績回復の不確実性を差し引いた補正値を表示し、元のMC分布へ弱く重ねた予想反映FVも併記します。5.6Sol深掘りでは、会社別資本コストと市場インプライドIRRを比較し、市場価格の妥当性と8〜10%要求利回りでの投資妙味を分けて判定します。
5.6Sol調査 手応えあり 不確実 要再検証 見送り寄り 赤字の乖離率=深掘り済み 旧見送り再審査: 42 / 473社を深掘り完了 低確信の旧簡易判定は全件再審査キューへ移し、深掘り完了まで疑わしい乖離率を非表示 表示する乖離率は各レビュー時点で保存した株価を基準に算出
指数・全11セクターの予想PERS&P500 1年先 23.1x
指数 / ETF1年先2年先3年先4年先5年先充足率
S&P 500 (IVV) 23.1x 19.4x 16.9x 15.6x 13.3x 98.4% / 497社
Russell 1000 (IWB) 22.8x 19.2x 16.7x 15.1x 13.3x 98.2% / 922社
Russell 2000 (IWM) 17.0x 13.4x 12.3x 11.8x 10.2x 91.7% / 1475社
素材 (XLB) 17.9x 16.3x 15.1x 14.5x 15.4x 99.9% / 25社
コミュニケーション (XLC) 15.9x 13.6x 11.9x 10.8x 8.9x 99.8% / 23社
エネルギー (XLE) 13.0x 14.2x 13.4x 12.0x 11.8x 99.9% / 21社
金融 (XLF) 15.8x 14.3x 12.9x 11.8x 13.1x 87.9% / 74社
資本財 (XLI) 27.6x 23.9x 20.9x 18.8x 16.8x 98.8% / 81社
情報技術 (XLK) 29.2x 21.1x 17.7x 16.3x 12.4x 99.9% / 73社
生活必需品 (XLP) 20.7x 19.2x 17.9x 17.0x 16.6x 99.6% / 33社
不動産 (XLRE) 36.4x 34.7x 31.0x 29.2x 23.9x 100.0% / 31社
公益 (XLU) 18.0x 16.5x 15.0x 14.0x 12.9x 99.7% / 31社
ヘルスケア (XLV) 19.9x 16.9x 15.3x 14.1x 13.1x 99.9% / 59社
一般消費財 (XLY) 26.0x 22.9x 19.6x 17.0x 14.8x 99.9% / 47社
503銘柄
時価総額を指定
時価総額レンジ 全範囲
$0B $4,920B
10点満点の絶対スコアで表示中
資本還元は直近5年の実績を使用。自社株買い率・実株数減少率・買い時品質が高く、SBC率が低いほど高評価です。相対評価の既存5項目とは別に、総合の絶対評価へ反映します。
表示列
Ticker 銘柄 予想PER
1〜5年
予想反映FV MC乖離率 5.6Sol乖離率 懸念メモ 業種 MOAT 成長 耐性 還元 見通し 資本 総合 株価 EV/
EBITDA
MC現在価値 資本コスト 売上 EPS BPS DPS 株数 純利率 還元 実買戻し 買い時品質 実株数減 SBC率 PER PBR 破綻 再資本 増資 Rate+1% 投資テーゼ
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD 20268.3x 20277.5x 20286.8x $316 元MC比 -4.5% +229.4% +19.0% 不確実 深掘り ⚠ 現在ROEは良好だが、保険ハード市場の正常化・大災害・準備金悪化を平準化しないとピーク利益トラップになり得る。 Insurance 9 8 9 8 9 8 8.5 $101 $331 8.90% +3.7% +7.5% +0.6% +99.6% -1.5% +27.8% +203.1% +3.5% +0.29 +6.0% +0.4% 20.7x 7.8x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 9.5%, median net margin 20.4%, median ROE 13.1%, FCF yield 16.6%.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS COR 20267.6x 20277.0x 20286.4x 20296.3x $123 元MC比 +1.7% +187.3% +36.0% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:AIによる単価下落と人員再編。Q1 FCF半減とProject Leap費用が一時的かを確認する必要。 Business services 9 7 9 8 9 8 8.3 $42.0 7.0x $121 8.91% +2.0% +7.3% +4.5% +15.6% -1.8% +14.8% +155.9% +2.8% +0.40 +7.4% +0.6% 23.5x 4.7x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.02 COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS COR is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / IT Consulting & Other Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 15.2%, median net margin 13.1%, median ROE 18.5%, FCF yield 9.2%.
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC 20268.0x 20277.6x 20287.1x 20296.8x 20306.3x $130 元MC比 +5.2% +171.9% +8.7% 不確実 深掘り ⚠ TPVは伸びても取引マージンとブランド決済の伸びが鈍く、新CEO下の再リセットで低PERが長期化する懸念。 Payment networks 9 7 10 8 9 8 8.5 $45.5 7.8x $124 8.91% +3.2% +5.3% +10.5% +36.9% -1.3% +17.3% +99.8% +6.3% +0.44 +18.3% +1.5% 27.1x 4.4x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% +$0.02 PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Transaction & Payment Processing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 14 annual rows: revenue CAGR 14.7%, median net margin 13.8%, median ROE 13.4%, FCF yield 9.7%.
CI CIGNA 20268.7x 20277.8x 20287.0x 20296.2x 20305.8x $691 元MC比 +0.6% +138.8% +92.4% 手応えあり 深掘り 市場整合: 旧評価の約46.6%割高は方向が逆。2026年会社計画の営業CF約90億ドルから設備投資約13億ドルを引いたFCFEは1株約29ドルで、凍結価格287.77ドルは約10%の現金利回りを与える。Evernorth/PBMの規制・顧客移行を厳しく見ても、確率加重価値553.64ドルは現値比+92.4%、市場暗黙IRR14.27%は会社固有CoE8.7%と10%要求をともに上回る。MA事業売却でStars・MA rateリスクも縮小しており、第三陣の見送り解除候補(推定IRR 14.3% / 会社別CoE 8.7%)。投資妙味: 8%要求なら628.54ドル、9%なら529.97ドル、10%でも457.74ドル。全て現値を大きく上回り、PBMが構造的に毀損する下方シナリオを明示したうえでも候補に残る。 Evernorthの調整後利益率は2.5%へ20bp低下し、PBMの利益は大口顧客移行で28%減。薬価・rebate・spread pricing規制が構造的なら低PERは罠になり得る。Q1営業CF11.31億ドルは季節的なpharmacy/service costs payable減少の影響があり、通期計画で判断すべき。Healthcareの通期MCR見通し83.7-84.7%、prior-year reserve development1.88億ドル、純債務約237.9億ドルも監視する。 Health care 7 8 8 8 9 8 8.0 $288 $687 8.60% +3.2% +10.0% +8.4% +17.8% -0.5% +4.0% +113.2% +6.8% -0.04 +21.1% 21.9x 3.4x +1.1% +9.8% +1.0% $-1.19 CIGNA is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 15.9%, median net margin 5.3%, median ROE 15.4%, FCF yield 11.1%.
FDS FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC 202614.9x 202714.1x 202813.3x 202912.7x 203012.0x $542 元MC比 -0.9% +118.8% +33.5% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:AIがデータ需要を増やす一方、端末単価・seat数を破壊する可能性。足元の調整利益率低下も要監視。 Financial data & exchanges 10 7 10 8 9 7 8.5 $250 12.3x $547 8.60% +3.4% +4.6% +1.4% +16.6% -0.6% +27.1% +82.6% +1.3% +0.17 -0.2% +0.4% 40.4x 15.3x +0.2% 0.0% +1.1% $-0.21 FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Financial Exchanges & Data). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 9.9%, median net margin 23.4%, median ROE 33.7%, FCF yield 5.9%.
CMCSA COMCAST CORP CLASS A 20265.5x 20275.5x 20285.4x 20295.3x 20305.0x $52.4 元MC比 +0.9% +118.2% +20.7% 不確実 簡易 ⚠ 売上+5.3%でも調整EBITDA-16.8%、FCF-28%、国内broadband売上-5.1%。構造的な回線減とNBCU/Sky分離の複雑さ。 Media & entertainment 8 6 8 9 9 8 8.0 $23.8 5.1x $51.9 9.57% +0.6% +0.4% +4.1% +9.2% -2.8% +12.5% +192.1% +5.9% +0.31 +19.3% +0.8% 12.4x 1.8x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.04 COMCAST CORP CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Cable & Satellite). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 8.8%, median net margin 10.7%, median ROE 14.1%, FCF yield 23.3%.
EG EVEREST GROUP LTD 20267.9x 20277.2x 20286.8x $803 元MC比 +3.2% +109.6% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; MOAT mismatch Insurance 8 6 8 8 9 6 7.5 $371 $778 8.90% +2.6% +5.2% +2.1% +19.9% +0.4% +12.4% +129.5% +2.0% +0.11 -6.0% +0.4% 17.3x 2.5x +0.2% 0.0% +6.1% - EVEREST GROUP LTD is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Reinsurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.4%, median net margin 12.5%, median ROE 11.6%, FCF yield 21.8%.
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A 202610.5x 20279.9x 20289.5x 20298.9x 20308.8x $269 元MC比 +4.3% +83.1% +37.8% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:生成AIが人月型売上を圧迫し、新規受注-3%・コンサル低成長が長期化する可能性。 Business services 8 6 9 8 9 7 7.8 $141 8.6x $258 8.91% +2.1% +4.5% +6.0% +6.7% -0.8% +13.3% +97.7% +2.1% +0.17 +1.6% +0.9% 22.6x 5.0x +0.5% 0.0% +0.6% $-0.08 ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / IT Consulting & Other Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.3%, median net margin 9.6%, median ROE 50.6%, FCF yield 9.8%.
CPAY CORPAY INC 202619.2x 202717.3x 202816.0x $642 元MC比 +2.6% +77.5% +30.3% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:買収依存、leverage 2.7倍、燃料スプレッド・信用損失、FTC訴訟、調整項目の多さ。 Payment networks 10 8 10 8 9 8 8.8 $352 11.7x $625 8.91% +3.8% +7.1% +15.4% -0.5% +31.2% +22.8% +6.0% -0.01 +14.5% +0.6% 47.0x 6.3x +3.3% 0.0% 0.0% +$0.01 CORPAY INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Transaction & Payment Processing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 18 annual rows: revenue CAGR 16.4%, median net margin 28.4%, median ROE 23.3%, FCF yield 4.7%.
FISV FISERV INC 20267.4x 20277.0x 20286.6x 20296.1x 20305.7x $95.3 元MC比 +2.8% +77.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade; business-model template; analyst haircut Payment networks 9 7 9 8 9 9 8.5 $52.3 6.5x $92.7 8.91% +3.0% +4.7% +8.5% -2.0% +16.3% +70.4% +7.0% +0.34 +17.4% +0.5% 20.3x 1.9x +0.4% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.12 FISERV INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Transaction & Payment Processing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 9.8%, median net margin 13.5%, median ROE 15.1%, FCF yield 15.1%.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC 20268.7x 20278.1x 20287.4x 20297.0x $207 元MC比 -0.2% +74.9% +40.0% 不確実 深掘り ⚠ Americas comp -6% cc、粗利率-410bp、営業margin -730bp、EPS-35%。一時停滞かブランド構造劣化かで価値差が極端。 Consumer discretionary 8 8 8 8 9 8 8.2 $118 5.6x $207 9.35% +2.4% +5.5% +15.3% -1.5% +17.0% +64.7% +2.4% +0.42 +8.3% +0.2% 19.4x 2.6x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.06 LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 25.5%, median net margin 13.8%, median ROE 27.3%, FCF yield 6.0%.
TROW T ROWE PRICE GROUP INC 202611.9x 202711.5x 202811.1x 202910.7x $206 元MC比 +1.6% +71.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade Asset management 9 6 9 9 9 7 8.2 $119 7.4x $203 9.35% +1.8% +4.4% +0.6% +7.4% -1.3% +32.3% +109.3% +2.3% +0.14 +2.9% +1.0% 22.9x 6.8x +0.1% 0.0% +0.0% +$0.03 T ROWE PRICE GROUP INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Asset Management & Custody Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.6%, median net margin 28.8%, median ROE 22.5%, FCF yield 9.8%.
ADBE ADOBE INC 202611.1x 202710.2x 20289.5x 20299.2x 20308.9x $386 元MC比 +2.9% +70.8% +36.1% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:生成AIの低価格化、SBC、Semrush統合、CFO交代。AI-first ARR成長が既存Creativeの侵食を相殺できるか。 Software 9 8 8 8 9 8 8.3 $220 11.9x $375 9.13% +3.8% +6.0% +18.3% -2.1% +31.1% +57.3% +3.9% +0.30 +10.7% +0.8% 29.0x 5.8x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.08 ADOBE INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Application Software). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 12.4%, median net margin 23.1%, median ROE 17.8%, FCF yield 8.7%.
DG DOLLAR GENERAL CORP 202613.5x 202711.2x 20289.8x 20299.0x 20308.5x $203 元MC比 +1.8% +68.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: -60% clip; MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Retail 7 7 8 8 8 7 7.5 $118 12.9x $199 8.91% +2.6% +8.8% +15.2% -6.4% 0.0% +6.9% +20.5% +1.9% -0.16 +6.0% +0.2% 27.9x 2.8x +0.1% +2.0% +1.1% $-0.19 DOLLAR GENERAL CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 8.4%, median net margin 5.7%, median ROE 19.0%, FCF yield 8.6%.
ELV ELEVANCE HEALTH INC 202614.2x 202712.5x 202811.0x 202910.5x 20309.6x $707 元MC比 +0.7% +68.0% -8.1% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧評価の約48%割高は過大。Blue系の地域ネットワーク、fee-based会員、Carelonの薬局・ケア統合は永続性があり、2026年のMedicaid/MA逆風からの回復を市場が見るのは妥当。ただし、凍結価格417.89ドルに対する確率加重価値383.88ドルは-8.1%、市場暗黙IRR8.44%は会社固有CoE8.8%を僅かに下回る。CMSのMA-PD enrollment sanction、9.35億ドルのrisk-adjustment引当、prior-year reserve依存を考えると、旧217.27ドルほどの割高ではなく『ほぼ適正だが余裕不足』(推定IRR 8.4% / 会社別CoE 8.8%)。投資妙味: 8%要求なら452.40ドルで現値を上回るが、9%なら381.09ドル、10%なら328.84ドル。会社固有CoE8.8%での基準価値393.53ドルより約6%高く、買値の余裕は小さい。 Q1 benefit expense ratioは86.8%へ40bp悪化し、通期見通しは90.2%±50bp。Medicaid会員は845.6万人、MAは189.9万人で、MAは前四半期比14.8%減。CMS noticeに伴うMA-PD enrollment suspensionと過去のMA risk adjustmentに関する9.35億ドル引当がある。prior-year reserve redundancyは11.24億ドル、DCPは前四半期比5.3日増の46.6日、claims payableは184.25億ドルで、Q1営業CF43億ドルは運転資本を含む。CarelonRx調整後scriptsも前四半期比9.3%減で、統合プレミアムの実証は未完。 Health care 7 5 9 8 8 8 7.5 $418 $702 8.60% +2.2% +6.8% +0.4% +18.3% -1.4% +4.1% +112.1% +2.5% +0.28 +8.1% +0.3% 22.2x 5.1x +0.5% +5.8% 0.0% $-0.73 ELEVANCE HEALTH INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Managed Health Care). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.8%, median net margin 4.0%, median ROE 13.0%, FCF yield 3.6%.
CINF CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP 202614.5x 202713.1x 202812.0x $312 元MC比 -3.2% +67.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade Insurance 8 6 8 7 8 6 7.2 $192 $322 8.90% +2.9% +6.3% +6.3% +16.7% -0.7% +24.1% +86.0% +1.0% +0.08 +3.0% 19.0x 2.9x +0.3% 0.0% +0.9% - CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.5%, median net margin 11.9%, median ROE 10.1%, FCF yield 11.1%.
JKHY JACK HENRY AND ASSOCIATES INC 202622.0x 202721.0x 202820.0x $238 元MC比 -2.0% +65.7% +2.5% 不確実 簡易 銀行統合で顧客を失い、deconversion収益が成長を一時的に押し上げる点とcloud移行投資を要監視。 Payment networks 9 6 10 8 8 7 8.0 $147 14.7x $243 8.91% +3.0% +5.5% +0.2% +13.1% -1.3% +21.2% +61.9% +1.1% +0.19 +3.5% +0.2% 43.5x 16.1x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.01 JACK HENRY AND ASSOCIATES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Transaction & Payment Processing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.6%, median net margin 17.0%, median ROE 19.2%, FCF yield 5.2%.
ZTS ZOETIS INC CLASS A 202611.6x 202711.3x 202810.8x 202910.5x 203010.1x $126 元MC比 +1.4% +65.7% +33.6% 不確実 深掘り ⚠ 米国コンパニオンアニマル-11%。価格感応度、皮膚科・Simparica競争、ジェネリック、Librela不振が一過性かmoat毀損か不明。 Pharmaceuticals 9 6 8 8 9 8 8.0 $74.8 9.6x $124 8.60% +1.8% +3.7% +9.9% +12.2% -1.6% +29.0% +88.3% +2.5% +0.31 +6.5% +0.1% 23.0x 11.1x +0.6% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.05 ZOETIS INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Pharmaceuticals). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 17 annual rows: revenue CAGR 8.0%, median net margin 16.8%, median ROE 47.4%, FCF yield 7.1%.
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC 202621.2x 202718.2x 202815.9x 202914.5x 203013.6x $688 元MC比 +1.0% +60.1% -16.5% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧評価の約45%割高は過度に2026年の利益谷を永久化した。UHCの再価格設定、Optumのデータ・薬局・ケア統合、2030年までの利益回復を市場が先取りするのは合理的。ただし凍結価格425.36ドルに対し確率加重価値355.20ドルは-16.5%、市場暗黙IRR7.87%は会社固有CoE8.7%を下回る。MA会員減、通期MCR88.8%、Optum Healthの再構築、司法省等の法規制リスクまで入れると、旧233.90ドルほど安くはないが現値は回復成功をやや先取り(推定IRR 7.9% / 会社別CoE 8.7%)。投資妙味: 8%要求なら414.39ドルで現値に近いが、9%なら346.15ドル、10%なら296.80ドル。高品質プレミアムを認める8%でも僅かに届かず、会社固有CoEでは364.21ドルが基準。 Q1 MCR83.9%にはloss-contract reserveの約20bp利益が含まれ、通期会社見通しは88.8%±50bp。MA会員は前四半期比89万人減の755.5万人、Medicaidも減少。Optum営業利益率は6.1%から5.2%へ低下し、Optum Healthはvalue-based care会員減で売上・利益率が悪化した。DCPは48.6日、医療費債務396.59億ドル、IBNR約276億ドルでQ1営業CFの運転資本性が大きい。MA risk adjustment、Stars、PBM規制と司法省等の法的措置は低CoEを妨げる。 Health care 7 6 8 8 8 8 7.5 $425 $681 8.60% +2.9% +12.0% +3.5% +12.5% -0.9% +6.0% +71.9% +1.6% +0.32 +3.7% +0.2% 28.6x 8.0x +0.2% +2.1% 0.0% $-0.54 UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Managed Health Care). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 10.1%, median net margin 5.0%, median ROE 18.3%, FCF yield 4.3%.
INTU INTUIT INC 202617.1x 202715.9x 202815.2x 202914.8x 203014.0x $436 元MC比 +5.6% +49.8% +31.4% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:税務AI・政府無料申告、17%人員削減、再編費用。TurboTax単位減を高ARPUだけで補えるか。 Software 9 8 9 8 9 6 8.2 $275 16.4x $412 9.13% +4.4% +4.5% +3.2% +14.2% +0.4% +22.6% +59.1% +1.2% +0.29 -3.7% +1.0% 35.9x 8.0x +0.1% 0.0% +6.3% +$0.29 INTUIT INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Application Software). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 11.7%, median net margin 17.7%, median ROE 21.9%, FCF yield 6.6%.
PGR PROGRESSIVE CORP 202612.1x 202711.9x 202811.5x $342 元MC比 0.0% +47.4% +1.3% 不確実 簡易 足元combined ratioは96目標より良すぎ、現在利益の単純年率化は危険。料率競争、loss-cost、catが懸念。 Insurance 9 8 9 8 9 6 8.2 $232 $342 8.90% +4.0% +2.8% +4.4% +15.2% -0.6% +11.2% +92.3% +0.2% +0.17 -0.3% +0.1% 18.2x 6.4x +0.1% 0.0% +1.2% - PROGRESSIVE CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 9.8%, median net margin 6.8%, median ROE 18.4%, FCF yield 13.6%.
HII HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES INC 202616.4x 202714.7x 202813.3x 202912.9x 203012.1x $437 元MC比 +4.5% +43.5% -11.2% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 受注残と造船所の希少性を考えると旧5.6Solの-45.1%ほどの割高ではない。米海軍の原子力空母・潜水艦・水上艦を建造できる設備、53.1十億ドルの受注残、能力増強後の利益率回復には低めの需要リスクを認められる。ただし2025年FCF 800百万ドルは請求・税のタイミング恩恵が大きく、2026年会社見通し500-600百万ドルを正常化すると確率加重価値258.72ドル(現値比-11.2%)。市場暗黙IRR7.91%は会社別CoE8.5%を下回るが、深い割高ではない(推定IRR 7.9% / 会社別CoE 8.5%)。投資妙味: 8%要求なら基準買値287ドルで現値292ドルとほぼ同水準。9%なら242ドル、10%なら209ドル。高要求利回りでは待つが、旧評価ほど否定的にしない。 2025年売上の46%がfixed-price incentive、3%がfirm fixed-price、50%がcost-type。長期造船では賃金・供給網・再作業・インフレの超過を完全に転嫁できない。2025年FCF 800百万ドルは、会社自身が請求タイミング、税支払減、運転資本改善を主因と説明しており、年率化不可。2026年はcapexが売上の4-5%程度で、顧客前受け・contract assetsの振れも大きい。 Aerospace & defense 7 7 8 7 9 6 7.3 $292 16.0x $418 8.90% +2.1% +6.2% +3.2% +14.0% -0.6% +6.8% +74.2% +1.0% -0.07 +2.5% +0.4% 25.4x 3.9x +0.3% +0.2% +0.2% $0.00 HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Aerospace & Defense). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 16 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.2%, median net margin 5.6%, median ROE 20.6%, FCF yield 6.2%.
TRV TRAVELERS COMPANIES INC 202611.7x 202711.7x 202811.4x $483 元MC比 -1.5% +43.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade Insurance 9 6 9 8 9 8 8.2 $342 $490 8.90% +2.0% +3.2% +1.6% +21.2% -1.2% +13.0% +98.9% +3.9% +0.07 +9.8% 19.2x 4.5x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - TRAVELERS COMPANIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.6%, median net margin 10.8%, median ROE 12.8%, FCF yield 12.1%.
ALL ALLSTATE CORP 20267.1x 20277.4x 20287.2x $367 元MC比 +3.2% +42.1% +9.2% 不確実 深掘り Q1純益$2.4Bはcat減少の恩恵が大きく、その後4〜5月catも$1.16B。自然災害・reserve・料率cycleを平準化する必要。 Insurance 8 6 8 8 9 8 7.8 $250 $356 8.90% +2.0% +1.2% +11.9% +15.6% -0.7% +13.3% +69.9% +4.4% +0.01 +10.6% 14.3x 1.8x +0.1% 0.0% +0.9% - ALLSTATE CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.4%, median net margin 7.1%, median ROE 12.1%, FCF yield 13.9%.
UHS UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC CLAS 20266.9x 20276.7x 20286.6x 20296.5x $227 元MC比 +1.5% +41.3% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Health care 7 6 9 8 9 8 7.8 $158 6.2x $224 8.60% +2.3% +2.1% +9.8% +24.3% -1.4% +7.4% +66.7% +7.5% +0.00 +22.9% +0.8% 14.9x 1.4x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.45 UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC CLAS is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Facilities). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.8%, median net margin 6.9%, median ROE 15.0%, FCF yield 7.6%.
ICE INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC 202619.8x 202718.5x 202817.6x 202916.8x 203016.0x $182 元MC比 -0.2% +37.5% +15.9% 手応えあり 深掘り 記録的volatilityでtransaction収益が膨らみ、run-rate過大の懸念。負債$20.4B、Mortgage TechのGAAP/adjusted margin差も大きい。 Financial data & exchanges 9 8 9 7 9 7 8.2 $133 15.8x $183 8.60% +3.5% +5.0% +6.9% +11.1% +0.2% +32.2% +25.1% +0.6% +0.39 -1.8% +0.3% 40.0x 3.8x +0.3% 0.0% +3.3% +$0.16 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Financial Exchanges & Data). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 21.3%, median net margin 31.3%, median ROE 11.5%, FCF yield 5.0%.
LEN LENNAR A CORP CLASS A 202610.8x 20279.0x 20287.6x $115 元MC比 -3.7% +34.9% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Consumer discretionary 7 3 7 7 8 8 6.7 $88.2 9.1x $119 9.35% +0.1% +8.2% +8.2% +9.8% -2.3% +10.7% +87.3% +4.7% +0.20 +15.9% +0.5% 12.9x 1.2x +0.4% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.30 LENNAR A CORP CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Homebuilding). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.0%, median net margin 8.2%, median ROE 11.5%, FCF yield 1.4%.
WRB WR BERKLEY CORP 202615.1x 202714.4x 202813.6x $97.1 元MC比 +0.7% +33.8% +13.0% 不確実 深掘り 保険hard market正常化、cat、reserve悪化、金利低下時の投資収益減が主な懸念。 Insurance 9 5 9 8 8 7 7.7 $72.1 $96.4 8.90% +2.0% +4.5% +1.5% +12.1% -1.0% +14.3% +86.1% +1.0% +0.12 +4.6% +0.2% 20.2x 5.3x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - WR BERKLEY CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.5%, median net margin 8.7%, median ROE 11.9%, FCF yield 12.1%.
NOC NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP 202617.2x 202715.7x 202814.6x 202914.1x 203013.5x $684 元MC比 -3.0% +28.4% -16.9% 見送り寄り 深掘り 市場整合: 受注残と希少プログラムは強いが、凍結価格では実質的にやや割高。5.6Solの-37.8%は過大だが、MCの+31.6%もB-21損失と成長投資を軽視。確率加重価値455.96ドル(549.01ドル比-16.9%)で、市場暗黙IRR7.07%は会社資本コスト7.9%を下回る(推定IRR 7.1% / 会社別CoE 7.9%)。投資妙味: 8%要求の基準買値455ドル、9%は385ドル、10%は333ドル。現在値では待つ。 B-21の5つのLRIP optionは大半が固定価格で、2023年15.6億ドル、2025年追加4.77億ドルの損失を計上し、2025年末の残存損失引当は13億ドル。後続unit 40までの価格は未確定で増産には追加投資も必要。2026年会社FCF31-35億ドルはEPSより低く、EPSベースMCはFCFEを過大評価しやすい。 Aerospace & defense 8 6 8 8 8 8 7.7 $549 16.6x $705 8.90% +1.8% +5.7% +10.7% +8.8% -0.7% +14.0% +47.5% +3.1% +0.23 +10.5% +0.1% 25.9x 4.1x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.23 NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Aerospace & Defense). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.8%, median net margin 8.2%, median ROE 25.3%, FCF yield 4.0%.
HIG HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP INC 202610.5x 202710.4x 202810.2x $179 元MC比 +2.3% +27.1% +14.3% 不確実 深掘り 利益+36%の一部はcat・reserve比較。旧契約の性的虐待関連で$70M積増しがあり、保険cycleと長尾reserveを要精査。 Insurance 7 4 8 8 8 8 7.2 $138 $175 8.90% +1.2% +1.3% +2.2% +18.9% -1.5% +11.6% +98.1% +5.6% +0.00 +19.1% 15.4x 3.1x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 0.3%, median net margin 8.3%, median ROE 9.4%, FCF yield 14.0%.
MRSH MARSH INC 202618.6x 202717.5x 202816.7x $223 元MC比 +0.5% +24.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade; business-model template Business services 8 6 8 8 8 7 7.5 $179 14.7x $221 8.91% +2.8% +4.9% +7.6% +8.2% -0.8% +17.7% +50.6% +1.6% +0.11 +3.2% +0.4% 31.5x 6.7x +0.1% 0.0% +0.2% $-0.02 MARSH INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Insurance Brokers). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.4%, median net margin 11.0%, median ROE 21.2%, FCF yield 5.3%.
RMD RESMED INC 202620.7x 202720.1x 202819.6x 202919.1x 203018.4x $256 元MC比 -1.1% +23.6% +34.2% 手応えあり 深掘り Philips復帰、GLP-1によるOSA患者・紹介経路の変化、供給正常化によるmargin改善の持続性が論点。 Health care 9 7 9 7 8 7 7.8 $210 16.0x $259 8.60% +3.5% +2.9% +1.9% +16.8% -0.3% +24.7% +52.0% +0.3% +0.55 -1.0% +0.2% 34.2x 9.4x +0.2% 0.0% +1.9% $-0.02 RESMED INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Equipment). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 11.9%, median net margin 18.4%, median ROE 18.3%, FCF yield 5.3%.
SYF SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL 20267.7x 20276.9x 20286.4x 20296.1x $96.6 元MC比 +2.5% +23.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Consumer finance 9 6 8 9 9 10 8.5 $76.3 2.7x $94.3 9.79% +0.7% +4.8% +10.3% +15.3% -1.6% +24.3% +94.3% +10.5% +0.33 +34.5% 10.6x 1.4x +0.5% +0.1% 0.0% - SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Consumer Finance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 15 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.0%, median net margin 18.4%, median ROE 20.6%, FCF yield 33.5%.
CB CHUBB 202613.2x 202712.5x 202811.8x $450 元MC比 +2.6% +21.5% -2.6% 不確実 簡易 Q1 EPS急増は前年California wildfire比較が大きい。property料率軟化、cat、reserve、約1.9倍bookが懸念。 Insurance 8 6 9 7 8 7 7.5 $361 $439 8.90% +1.9% +5.2% +6.0% +15.6% -2.2% +19.3% +69.3% +3.2% -0.14 +9.6% 18.9x 2.5x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% - CHUBB is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Property & Casualty Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 8.1%, median net margin 15.0%, median ROE 10.1%, FCF yield 10.3%.
HSY HERSHEY FOODS 202628.9x 202725.1x 202822.7x 202921.1x 203019.7x $220 元MC比 0.0% +21.0% +1.0% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧判定の約34%割高は、2025年のカカオ高騰による利益谷を恒久化したため過度に悲観的。正規化EPS8.36ドルとブランドに22倍の持続倍率を置くと加重公正価値184.02ドル、市場期待IRR8.1%で、現値は8%要求ならほぼ妥当。ただし値上げに対する菓子数量の落込みとカカオ・関税リスクが大きく、9〜10%要求では169.65〜156.61ドルまで待つ(推定IRR 8.1% / 会社別CoE 8.0%)。投資妙味: 8%価値184.02ドルで182.14ドルはほぼ適正、9%169.65ドル、10%156.61ドル。8%なら小さく候補、9〜10%なら待ち。 回復の質は無条件ではない。北米菓子は価格+12ポイントに対し数量-4ポイント、国際も価格+12・数量-2で、ブランド力があっても需要弾力性は存在する。調整後粗利率は40.4%へ80bp低下し、カカオ、砂糖、乳製品、関税は不安定。塩味スナックは数量+5%超でも利益率が530bp低下したため、22倍の品質倍率には原材料正常化と数量安定の両方が必要。 Consumer staples 9 4 8 8 7 6 7.0 $182 21.3x $220 8.60% +1.2% +10.1% +1.7% +5.3% -0.9% +16.0% +52.2% +0.8% -0.09 +1.9% +0.2% 32.5x 14.4x +0.3% 0.0% +0.4% $-0.22 HERSHEY FOODS is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods & Meats). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.6%, median net margin 10.9%, median ROE 57.7%, FCF yield 4.7%.
BF-B BROWN FORMAN CORP CLASS B 202616.0x 202715.7x 202815.3x 202914.8x $32.1 元MC比 +1.6% +20.8% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade Consumer staples 9 4 9 8 8 7 7.5 $26.2 12.8x $31.6 8.60% +0.4% +2.8% +3.1% +3.3% -0.8% +20.7% +63.5% +1.0% +0.21 +2.6% 25.9x 4.5x +0.3% 0.0% +0.2% $-0.05 BROWN FORMAN CORP CLASS B is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Distillers & Vintners). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.1%, median net margin 21.9%, median ROE 29.9%, FCF yield 6.7%.
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP 202621.9x 202720.1x 202819.0x 202917.9x 203017.4x $456 元MC比 +1.4% +20.3% -23.5% 見送り寄り 深掘り 市場整合: 質の高い複合防衛企業だが凍結価格では割高。5.6Solの-33.7%ほどではないものの、確率加重価値285.63ドル(373.54ドル比-23.5%)。市場暗黙IRR6.75%は会社資本コスト8.0%を明確に下回り、強い受注残を相当先まで織り込む(推定IRR 6.8% / 会社別CoE 8.0%)。投資妙味: 8%要求の基準買値288ドル、9%は243ドル、10%は210ドル。現在値では待つ。 Marine Systemsの2025年利益率は7.0%と低く、Virginia/Columbia増産には施設・人材・サプライチェーン投資が要る。米政府売上の51%が固定価格。98億ドルの顧客前受け・預り金とQ1の7.64億ドル増加はキャッシュフローのタイミングを膨らませるため、Q1 FCFを年率化できない。Gulfstreamは景気・高額資産循環にも晒される。 Aerospace & defense 8 6 8 8 7 7 7.3 $374 18.2x $449 8.90% +2.5% +5.7% +0.7% +13.3% -1.1% +10.2% +64.2% +1.7% +0.08 +4.0% +0.2% 26.7x 7.7x +0.4% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.16 GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Aerospace & Defense). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.2%, median net margin 8.1%, median ROE 19.2%, FCF yield 3.7%.
PAYX PAYCHEX INC 202619.2x 202718.4x 202817.7x $132 元MC比 +3.4% +20.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: B_business_model / 検出事項: business-model template Business services 10 6 8 8 8 6 7.7 $106 15.8x $128 8.91% +2.6% +3.9% +11.6% -0.1% -0.5% +30.4% +43.4% +0.5% -0.04 +0.5% +0.2% 33.6x 8.0x +0.2% 0.0% +1.1% $-0.01 PAYCHEX INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Human Resource & Employment Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.7%, median net margin 27.0%, median ROE 39.5%, FCF yield 5.4%.
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC 202617.3x 202715.9x 202815.1x $85.1 元MC比 +1.3% +20.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade; business-model template Business services 9 7 9 7 8 6 7.7 $70.0 14.2x $84.0 8.91% +4.2% +5.6% +5.4% +13.4% +1.9% +24.1% +26.9% +0.4% +0.22 -12.3% +0.4% 30.2x 2.5x +1.5% 0.0% +20.9% +$0.13 BROWN & BROWN INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Insurance Brokers). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 10.6%, median net margin 16.9%, median ROE 11.4%, FCF yield 6.2%.
BMY BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB 202614.6x 202713.7x 202813.8x 202914.0x 203013.7x $71.2 元MC比 +2.1% +19.9% +1.7% 不確実 深掘り ⚠ 成長製品群はQ1で+12%だが、Eliquisだけで売上の約36%。既存薬の後発品侵食、Opdivo減収、純負債約336億ドルを考えると低PERをそのまま割安とは置けない。2026年調整EPSの約9倍は安いが、10%集中に必要な安全余裕は現時点で不足。 Pharmaceuticals 9 6 8 8 8 8 7.8 $58.1 8.8x $69.7 8.60% +1.4% +4.0% +10.9% +2.1% -0.5% +17.7% +51.9% +2.9% +0.25 +8.4% +0.4% 24.8x 5.0x +0.2% 0.0% +0.8% $-0.06 BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Pharmaceuticals). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.6%, median net margin 14.2%, median ROE 19.6%, FCF yield 9.7%.
ROP ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC 202621.5x 202719.7x 202818.9x 202917.4x $441 元MC比 +1.2% +19.7% +32.3% 手応えあり 深掘り 買収・goodwill・負債依存、GAAPと調整利益の差、Q1の$1.5B買戻しによるEPS寄与を要精査。 Electronic components 8 8 8 7 8 6 7.5 $364 16.8x $436 9.35% +4.5% +6.4% +1.8% +19.1% -0.1% +23.2% +52.7% +0.2% +0.04 -2.0% +0.3% 28.6x 3.5x +0.4% 0.0% +3.4% +$0.03 ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Electronic Equipment & Instruments). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 8.4%, median net margin 18.2%, median ROE 12.5%, FCF yield 5.7%.
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A 202621.6x 202720.4x 202819.1x 202917.6x 203016.6x $697 元MC比 +3.0% +16.1% +9.2% 不確実 深掘り 売上+33%は強いが通期capex $125〜145B、Reality Labs営業赤字$4.0B、規制、EPSの$8.0B税効果を平準化する必要。 Internet services 9 7 8 7 8 8 7.8 $583 15.0x $677 9.57% +5.6% +5.5% +11.7% +19.2% -0.9% +28.5% +29.3% +3.8% +0.53 +10.4% +1.7% 37.8x 5.9x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% +$0.13 META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Interactive Media & Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 19 annual rows: revenue CAGR 49.0%, median net margin 23.5%, median ROE 17.2%, FCF yield 3.0%.
CBOE CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC 202621.8x 202721.7x 202821.4x 202921.0x 203020.7x $289 元MC比 +2.2% +13.6% +20.1% 手応えあり 深掘り 市場整合: 割安。従来の約17%割高判定はMCとの反転を説明できず、8–9%要求なら候補(推定IRR 9.6% / 会社別CoE 7.5%)。投資妙味: 8–9%なら候補。10%買値は約$240。 直近成長は高ボラティリティと0DTE取引の急伸を含み、平常化リスクがある。米国オプション市場シェア低下、RPCミックス、データ料金規制も監視する。 Financial data & exchanges 9 8 9 7 8 7 8.0 $249 18.2x $283 8.60% +3.0% +2.6% +1.0% +14.2% -0.9% +20.6% +48.1% +0.7% +0.09 +2.1% +0.2% 36.6x 9.8x +0.1% 0.0% +0.3% $-0.04 CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Financial Exchanges & Data). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 19 annual rows: revenue CAGR 15.6%, median net margin 23.2%, median ROE 25.8%, FCF yield 3.8%.
AFL AFLAC INC 202616.9x 202716.0x 202815.4x 202915.1x $128 元MC比 -6.2% +13.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: E_low_confidence / 検出事項: 低確信の旧簡易レビュー Insurance 9 5 9 8 7 9 7.8 $121 $137 8.90% +0.3% +3.8% +0.7% +13.5% -1.4% +26.0% +77.5% +5.5% +0.15 +20.9% 21.0x 3.6x +0.5% 0.0% 0.0% - AFLAC INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Life & Health Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 0.8%, median net margin 13.1%, median ROE 17.8%, FCF yield 3.8%.
STZ CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC CLASS A 202613.0x 202712.9x 202812.7x 202912.3x 203012.4x $155 元MC比 -0.5% +13.1% +2.4% 手応えあり 深掘り 市場整合: 旧判定の約37%割高は、短期のビール需要減速と会計利益を長期化しすぎた。Modeloの米国首位、メキシコブランドの永続サブライセンス、ビール39%前後の営業利益率、強いFCFと買戻しを反映すると加重公正価値140.82ドル、市場期待IRR9.3%。137.47ドルは会社固有CoE 9%と9%要求をわずかに満たす候補だが、10%要求では129.84ドルまで待つ(推定IRR 9.3% / 会社別CoE 9.0%)。投資妙味: 8%価値152.92ドル、9%140.82ドル、10%129.84ドル。現値137.47ドルは8〜9%要求で候補、10%では待ち。市場期待IRR9.3%は会社固有CoE 9.0%も小幅に上回る。 Q1のビールdepletionは-0.3%、Modelo -2%、Corona Extraは5%超減で、FY2027有機売上とビール売上の見通しも-1〜+1%。顧客層の景気・移民行動、国境・関税・メキシコの水、ガラス包装、単一国生産への集中はCoEを生活必需品大手より高い9%とする理由。成長が戻らずレバレッジ約3倍のままなら、15倍終価は縮む。 Consumer staples 9 5 7 9 7 8 7.5 $137 10.9x $155 8.60% +0.3% +2.0% +5.7% +6.0% -0.7% +19.5% +58.1% +2.8% +0.19 +7.9% +0.2% 22.4x 3.3x +1.4% 0.0% +0.9% $-0.27 CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Distillers & Vintners). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.0%, median net margin 15.0%, median ROE 14.6%, FCF yield 7.5%.
QCOM QUALCOMM INC 202624.6x 202722.6x 202819.4x 202917.7x $199 元MC比 +1.8% +11.1% +1.3% 不確実 簡易 ⚠ FYQ2売上-3%、non-GAAP EPS-7%、handset -13%。GAAP EPSは$5.7B税効果で見かけが良く、中国・Apple・licenseモデルの尾が太い。 Semiconductors 9 6 7 8 7 6 7.2 $176 13.5x $196 10.02% +0.9% +9.0% +3.5% +9.8% -1.0% +25.1% +57.5% +2.6% -0.13 +3.1% +1.4% 31.0x 14.8x +0.4% 0.0% +0.3% $-0.20 QUALCOMM INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Semiconductors). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 9.8%, median net margin 25.9%, median ROE 19.0%, FCF yield 6.9%.
AOS A O SMITH CORP 202616.3x 202715.7x 202815.7x 202915.5x $71.3 元MC比 +3.3% +10.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: E_low_confidence / 検出事項: 低確信の旧簡易レビュー Industrials 7 5 9 8 7 9 7.5 $62.7 11.2x $69.0 8.91% +0.9% +1.8% +1.2% +9.1% -2.0% +13.4% +69.8% +3.4% +0.43 +11.8% +0.1% 24.5x 8.1x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.02 A O SMITH CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Building Products). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.1%, median net margin 9.5%, median ROE 16.5%, FCF yield 6.0%.
MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC CLASS A 202623.6x 202720.8x 202819.2x 202918.0x 203017.3x $70.7 元MC比 +5.5% +9.9% -3.4% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧判定の約30%割高はGAAPのココア高騰・デリバティブ影響を恒久化した過小評価。正規化後は市場的に概ね妥当から小幅割高だが、8〜10%要求にはまだ届かない(推定IRR 7.5% / 会社別CoE 7.9%)。投資妙味: 8%価値58.36ドル、9%53.85ドル、10%49.75ドル。60.91ドルでは待ちだが、理由は約30%の過大評価ではなく、ココア正常化を織り込んでも期待IRRが7.5%程度だから。 2025 volume/mixは-3.7%、Q1 2026も-0.5%。Q1 adjusted gross marginは270bp低下して30.7%、adjusted EPSは為替中立-14.9%。60.91ドルを正当化するにはココア正常化だけでなく数量回復も必要で、2026見通しの有機売上0〜2%は短期余白が薄い。 Consumer staples 8 3 8 8 7 7 6.8 $60.9 16.2x $67.0 8.60% +1.4% +8.6% +1.0% +4.8% -1.2% +11.2% +61.8% +2.5% -0.09 +7.8% +0.2% 25.6x 5.1x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.11 MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods & Meats). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 0.6%, median net margin 9.4%, median ROE 11.3%, FCF yield 4.0%.
GL GLOBE LIFE INC 202612.2x 202712.0x 202811.5x 202911.1x $199 元MC比 +0.8% +9.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade Insurance 9 6 8 8 8 9 8.0 $180 $198 8.90% +1.1% +3.3% +8.3% +19.5% -1.6% +20.5% +55.9% +6.3% +0.11 +20.3% 19.4x 2.4x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% - GLOBE LIFE INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Life & Health Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.0%, median net margin 15.1%, median ROE 13.4%, FCF yield 8.3%.
FOX FOX CORP CLASS B 202610.2x 20279.7x 20289.6x 20299.0x 20309.0x $55.5 元MC比 +1.1% +8.7% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Media & entertainment 8 6 8 8 8 8 7.7 $50.6 7.9x $54.9 9.57% +1.2% +2.3% +6.8% +15.7% -2.7% +12.6% +81.7% +6.6% +0.16 +23.0% +0.5% 15.6x 2.0x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.13 FOX CORP CLASS B is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Broadcasting). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 10 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.0%, median net margin 12.9%, median ROE 16.0%, FCF yield 11.4%.
DGX QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC 202621.2x 202719.6x 202818.7x 202917.7x 203017.3x $245 元MC比 +6.5% +6.8% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; MOAT mismatch Health care 8 4 9 8 7 8 7.3 $216 15.2x $230 8.60% +1.3% +5.2% -0.7% +13.2% -1.7% +11.1% +66.6% +4.6% +0.06 +11.2% +0.5% 25.4x 6.5x +0.4% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.33 QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.0%, median net margin 9.4%, median ROE 15.1%, FCF yield 5.0%.
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP 202613.8x 202712.7x 202811.9x 202910.9x $118 元MC比 +5.9% +6.0% +35.1% 手応えあり 深掘り 主懸念:HOKA/UGG二ブランド集中、米国内Q4ほぼ横ばい、流行・関税感応度。現状はトラップより成長鈍化リスク。 Consumer discretionary 8 8 8 8 8 9 8.2 $105 9.6x $111 9.35% +2.7% +4.4% +15.6% -1.6% +19.3% +40.3% +2.1% +0.62 +11.8% +0.1% 21.5x 3.3x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Footwear). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 16.4%, median net margin 13.7%, median ROE 23.8%, FCF yield 7.7%.
GEN GEN DIGITAL INC 202614.4x 202713.1x 202812.6x $28.1 元MC比 -0.4% +5.9% +5.9% 不確実 簡易 ⚠ FY26 FCF $1.52Bに対し長期債務約$8B、のれん約$11B。買収統合・顧客維持の失敗時に低PERが固定化。 Software 8 4 6 8 7 6 6.5 $26.7 9.8x $28.2 9.13% +2.7% +4.5% +13.8% +9.3% +0.4% +23.9% +40.2% +3.1% -0.03 -5.3% +0.7% 22.0x 3.5x +2.7% 0.0% +5.2% +$0.03 GEN DIGITAL INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Systems Software). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR -0.2%, median net margin 14.7%, median ROE 14.5%, FCF yield 8.4%.
WTW WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC 202616.1x 202715.2x 202814.7x $315 元MC比 +4.7% +5.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; business-model template; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Business services 8 5 7 7 7 8 7.0 $286 14.1x $301 8.91% +2.0% +3.1% +7.2% +12.6% -0.4% +18.2% +43.1% +6.0% -0.08 +23.4% +0.4% 25.4x 3.6x +0.3% 0.0% +0.9% +$0.10 WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Insurance Brokers). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.6%, median net margin 10.9%, median ROE 12.8%, FCF yield 4.5%.
MDT MEDTRONIC PLC 202619.3x 202718.4x 202818.0x 202917.5x 203016.8x $89.9 元MC比 +3.3% +4.7% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Health care 8 4 9 8 7 7 7.2 $83.2 13.2x $87.1 8.60% +1.2% +3.5% -0.1% +4.2% -1.2% +14.5% +64.7% +1.7% +0.13 +4.5% +0.3% 25.9x 3.8x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.02 MEDTRONIC PLC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Equipment). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.9%, median net margin 15.0%, median ROE 9.6%, FCF yield 4.8%.
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES 202622.3x 202720.8x 202819.8x 202919.2x 203018.7x $104 元MC比 +1.3% +3.4% +13.6% 不確実 簡易 reported売上+13%にExact Sciences買収を含み、GAAP EPS $0.53対調整$1.31。統合・債務・償却・legal reserveを要監視。 Health care 8 4 9 7 6 7 6.8 $99.7 17.0x $103 8.60% +0.8% +4.1% +0.7% +6.6% -0.6% +19.3% +52.1% +0.9% +0.12 +1.9% +0.3% 29.4x 5.5x +0.2% 0.0% +0.7% $-0.02 ABBOTT LABORATORIES is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Equipment). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.6%, median net margin 13.1%, median ROE 14.2%, FCF yield 3.9%.
FOXA FOX CORP CLASS A 202611.5x 202710.8x 202810.6x 202910.0x 203010.1x $59.5 元MC比 +3.4% +2.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Media & entertainment 8 6 8 8 7 8 7.5 $56.5 8.8x $57.6 9.57% +1.5% +2.9% +6.6% +15.7% -2.5% +12.6% +73.3% +6.1% +0.17 +23.0% +0.5% 16.4x 2.2x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.13 FOX CORP CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Broadcasting). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 10 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.0%, median net margin 12.9%, median ROE 16.0%, FCF yield 10.1%.
COO COOPER INC 202624.5x 202721.3x 202818.5x 202916.9x $74.2 元MC比 -1.9% +1.9% -3.2% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧評価の約60%割高は撤回。コンタクトレンズの交換需要と不妊・女性医療の消耗品は永続性が高く、Q2 FY2026の全社オーガニック成長5%、調整後営業利益率27.0%、調整後EPS成長26%は、単なる高PERでは説明できない。累計FCF目標を年額と誤読せず正常化すると、確率加重価値71.82ドルは凍結価格74.20ドル比-3.2%、市場暗黙IRR8.22%は会社固有CoE8.2%とほぼ一致する。訴訟・買収統合リスクを含めても『深い割高』ではなく概ね適正(推定IRR 8.2% / 会社別CoE 8.2%)。投資妙味: 8%要求なら77.27ドル、9%なら65.17ドル、10%なら56.31ドル。現値は会社固有CoEをほぼ満たすが、9%以上の要求収益率では待つ。 FY2026会社計画は売上42.85-43.21億ドル、オーガニック3.5-4.5%、調整後EPS4.58-4.66ドルで、現在価格には一桁後半の長期成長が必要。2023年のCooperSurgical胚培養液回収に関連してQ2に税前2.716億ドルの純訴訟費用を計上した。のれん38.89億ドル、無形資産14.94億ドル、在庫8.96億ドルも大きく、買収依存と品質事故を低CoEだけで無視できない。22億ドル超は3年間の累計FCFであり単年度ではない。 Health care 7 7 8 7 6 7 7.0 $74.2 15.8x $75.6 8.60% +2.1% +13.0% +6.8% -0.1% +25.6% +19.3% +0.4% +0.39 -1.2% +0.2% 24.1x 1.9x +0.1% 0.0% +2.2% $-0.01 COOPER INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Supplies). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 8.6%, median net margin 10.7%, median ROE 6.6%, FCF yield 2.9%.
WFC WELLS FARGO 202612.1x 202711.5x 202810.8x 202910.7x $90.0 元MC比 +3.3% +1.9% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; MOAT mismatch Banks 8 5 7 8 7 9 7.3 $85.5 $87.2 9.13% +0.3% +2.5% +2.5% +12.3% -0.8% +20.1% +80.9% +7.6% +0.12 +21.2% 14.4x 1.7x +1.3% +1.0% +1.0% - WELLS FARGO is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Diversified Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.8%, median net margin 17.9%, median ROE 11.2%, FCF yield -5.1%.
MKC MCCORMICK & CO NON-VOTING INC 202617.7x 202717.3x 202816.8x 202916.1x 203015.7x $53.5 元MC比 -1.3% +1.4% -5.2% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧判定の約38%割高は過大だが、Unilever Foodsとの大型結合で単独会社のPER評価も無効。取引リスク込みの会社CoEを8.8%へ上げると小幅割高で、8%期待IRRはあるもののリスク対価は不足(推定IRR 8.1% / 会社別CoE 8.8%)。投資妙味: 8%価値54.02ドル、9%49.87ドル、10%46.11ドル。現値は8%には合うが取引後CoE 8.8%を下回るため、少なくとも50ドル近辺まで待つ。 取引ではUnileverと同社株主が結合会社の65%、現MKC株主は約35%となり、Unileverへ157億ドルの現金も支払う。ConsumerのQ2 volume/mixは-2%、統合・債務・金利・シナジーの不確実性が大きい。単独会社の低CoEをそのまま使えない。 Consumer staples 8 5 9 7 7 5 6.8 $53.5 13.9x $54.2 8.60% +1.3% +1.8% +1.8% +4.4% -0.2% +11.8% +57.1% +0.2% -0.26 -0.4% +0.3% 23.5x 3.4x +0.6% 0.0% +1.9% $-0.08 MCCORMICK & CO NON-VOTING INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods & Meats). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.0%, median net margin 10.3%, median ROE 20.8%, FCF yield 5.2%.
AIZ ASSURANT INC 202614.5x 202714.0x 202813.4x $290 元MC比 +2.5% +1.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: E_low_confidence / 検出事項: 低確信の旧簡易レビュー Insurance 8 5 8 7 6 8 7.0 $279 $283 8.90% +1.8% +3.2% +2.6% +18.1% -0.9% +7.3% +71.7% +5.0% +0.08 +14.7% +0.8% 17.8x 2.9x +0.4% 0.0% 0.0% - ASSURANT INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Multi-line Insurance). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 2.5%, median net margin 5.2%, median ROE 9.7%, FCF yield 10.8%.
ULTA ULTA BEAUTY INC 202615.8x 202714.5x 202813.4x 202912.8x 203012.0x $477 元MC比 +2.5% +1.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Retail 7 7 8 7 7 8 7.3 $461 14.7x $466 8.91% +2.1% +5.3% +19.2% -0.7% +12.1% +18.8% +4.6% +0.07 +17.7% +0.2% 23.9x 2.8x +0.4% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.20 ULTA BEAUTY INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Other Specialty Retail). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 15.9%, median net margin 8.0%, median ROE 22.1%, FCF yield 4.2%.
ALLE ALLEGION PLC 202617.2x 202716.3x 202815.6x 202915.0x $147 元MC比 +4.0% +0.8% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: D_analyst_haircut / 検出事項: analyst haircut Industrials 8 7 8 7 7 7 7.3 $141 16.3x $142 8.91% +1.7% +2.8% +2.5% +14.0% -1.1% +15.9% +64.7% +1.4% -0.02 +4.2% +0.2% 22.1x 7.6x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.22 ALLEGION PLC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Building Products). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 17 annual rows: revenue CAGR n/a, median net margin 11.5%, median ROE 40.4%, FCF yield 4.7%.
MRK MERCK & CO INC 202626.5x 202720.4x 202821.8x 202921.5x 203021.3x $133 元MC比 +1.9% +0.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: D_analyst_haircut / 検出事項: analyst haircut Pharmaceuticals 9 5 8 7 7 6 7.0 $130 12.2x $130 8.60% +1.3% +0.1% +2.5% +6.3% -0.6% +23.7% +53.4% +0.7% +0.06 +1.1% +0.2% 26.1x 7.8x +0.2% 0.0% +0.9% $0.00 MERCK & CO INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Pharmaceuticals). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.7%, median net margin 15.8%, median ROE 22.5%, FCF yield 3.8%.
USB US BANCORP 202611.8x 202711.0x 202810.6x $65.5 元MC比 +5.7% +0.4% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; MOAT mismatch Banks 8 5 7 7 6 5 6.3 $61.7 $62.0 9.13% +0.8% +1.9% +3.0% +6.5% +0.6% +22.3% +71.7% +1.2% -0.13 -4.6% 14.0x 1.5x +0.9% +1.3% +7.8% - US BANCORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Diversified Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.3%, median net margin 25.1%, median ROE 12.7%, FCF yield 8.0%.
ERIE Erie Indemnity Company Class A 202622.1x $260 元MC比 -0.1% +0.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; business-model template; MOAT mismatch Business services 8 5 9 8 7 6 7.2 $259 16.2x $260 8.91% +3.2% +4.3% +8.0% +4.0% -0.4% +15.1% +37.9% 0.0% +0.54 0.0% 0.0% 30.7x 5.3x +0.1% 0.0% +1.3% $-0.02 Erie Indemnity Company Class A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Insurance Brokers). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.7%, median net margin 11.6%, median ROE 22.8%, FCF yield 4.3%.
KDP KEURIG DR PEPPER INC 202618.7x 202717.7x 202817.3x 202916.7x 203016.2x $34.6 元MC比 +4.5% -0.4% -4.1% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧判定の約54%割高は、JDE Peet's買収後の会社を旧KDP単体のGAAP利益で評価したため無効。会社が示す初年度約10%の調整後EPS押上げを暫定的に反映すると加重公正価値31.95ドル、市場期待IRR8.3%で、33.30ドルは概ね妥当。8%要求は満たすが会社固有CoE 8.8%にはわずかに届かず、9〜10%要求では31.43〜28.97ドル。買収・分離・4.5倍レバレッジのため低確信度(推定IRR 8.3% / 会社別CoE 8.8%)。投資妙味: 8%価値34.13ドルで現値33.30ドルは対象内。9%31.43ドル、10%28.97ドルなので高い要求では待ち。会社固有CoE 8.8%での加重公正価値31.95ドルを約4%上回る。 イベント後の最大リスクはモデル誤差そのもの。結合時ネットレバレッジ約4.5倍、45億ドルの転換型優先資本は37.25ドル転換・4.75%配当で、一株価値とCoEを押し上げる。Q1の米国コーヒー数量・ミックスは-8.2%、同調整後営業利益-21.3%、全社調整後EPSも-7.1%。分離時期、負債配分、税、シナジー、希薄化が確定するまで、単一点の公正価値に高い信頼を置けない。 Consumer staples 8 5 9 7 7 7 7.2 $33.3 13.4x $33.2 8.60% +1.5% +3.4% +0.8% +6.5% -0.9% +13.9% +59.7% +1.0% +0.15 +4.1% +0.2% 23.6x 2.5x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.04 KEURIG DR PEPPER INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.8%, median net margin 10.6%, median ROE 10.7%, FCF yield 3.4%.
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE 202622.8x 202722.5x 202822.1x 202921.8x 203021.3x $151 元MC比 +0.3% -0.6% +11.1% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 市場的には約11%の上値余地を含む概ね妥当な品質価格で、旧来の見送り理由だった約21〜22倍そのものは割高根拠にならない。8%要求なら買える境界、9〜10%なら待つ(推定IRR 8.2% / 会社別CoE 6.9%)。投資妙味: 8%価値152.10ドルで凍結価格はほぼ合格。9%なら140.17ドル、10%なら129.35ドルが目安で、集中value枠なら140ドル以下を待つ。 Q3 core gross marginは100bp低下し、tariff・再投資・mixが重い。会社はFY2026 core EPSを6.83〜7.09ドルの下限寄りと見込む。凍結価格は8%要求の境界であり、9〜10%の安全余裕はない。 Consumer staples 9 3 9 8 6 8 7.2 $151 16.3x $150 8.60% +0.6% +2.4% -0.2% +4.6% -1.4% +19.7% +52.5% +2.2% +0.12 +4.7% +0.1% 30.1x 12.9x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.05 PROCTER & GAMBLE is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Personal Care Products). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.1%, median net margin 14.7%, median ROE 17.8%, FCF yield 3.9%.
GEHC GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC 202613.6x 202712.8x 202812.0x 202911.6x 203011.4x $66.1 元MC比 +1.4% -0.6% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Health care 8 4 9 7 7 5 6.7 $65.6 11.2x $65.2 8.60% +1.7% +2.7% +10.8% +26.2% -0.2% +11.4% +25.6% +0.2% 0.00 -0.3% +0.3% 21.9x 2.1x +0.4% 0.0% +1.8% $-0.05 GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Health Care Equipment). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 7 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.7%, median net margin 10.1%, median ROE 20.3%, FCF yield 4.6%.
MCO MOODYS CORP 202632.2x 202730.3x 202828.8x 202927.3x 203026.0x $499 元MC比 +2.5% -0.8% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: B_business_model / 検出事項: business-model template; analyst haircut Financial data & exchanges 10 6 9 8 7 8 8.0 $491 22.9x $486 8.60% +4.0% +5.5% +6.7% +15.9% -1.3% +32.3% +35.7% +1.5% +0.25 +3.9% +0.3% 37.7x 21.1x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.19 MOODYS CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Financial Exchanges & Data). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.3%, median net margin 27.1%, median ROE 54.5%, FCF yield 3.0%.
AKAM AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC 202628.6x 202725.1x 202822.7x 202921.6x 203020.2x $108 元MC比 -3.4% -1.6% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: D_analyst_haircut / 検出事項: analyst haircut Internet services 8 7 9 7 7 7 7.5 $113 15.5x $111 9.57% +3.1% +8.9% +8.0% -1.0% +18.5% +19.9% +4.2% +0.16 +10.6% +2.2% 35.7x 3.6x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% +$0.19 AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Internet Services & Infrastructure). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 12.8%, median net margin 15.4%, median ROE 9.6%, FCF yield 4.3%.
NKE NIKE INC CLASS B 202618.8x 202716.2x 202815.1x 202913.8x $47.3 元MC比 +9.3% -1.8% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Consumer discretionary 8 4 8 8 6 7 6.8 $44.1 13.0x $43.3 9.35% +0.5% +5.5% +12.6% -8.8% -0.3% +11.3% +25.2% +2.0% +0.22 +6.3% +0.5% 25.8x 2.9x +0.9% 0.0% +1.0% $-0.02 NIKE INC CLASS B is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.7%, median net margin 10.0%, median ROE 24.6%, FCF yield 3.5%.
SNA SNAP ON INC 202621.1x 202720.6x $409 元MC比 +1.2% -1.9% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: E_low_confidence / 検出事項: 低確信の旧簡易レビュー Industrials 8 5 9 8 7 7 7.3 $412 15.2x $404 8.91% +1.1% +2.8% +0.7% +7.9% -1.0% +20.9% +57.5% +2.1% +0.08 +3.3% +0.3% 26.1x 5.8x +0.7% 0.0% +0.2% +$0.01 SNAP ON INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.8%, median net margin 13.6%, median ROE 19.0%, FCF yield 4.6%.
BLK BLACKROCK INC 202622.9x 202720.3x 202818.6x 202917.5x $1,011 元MC比 +3.7% -2.1% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: D_analyst_haircut / 検出事項: analyst haircut Asset management 9 7 9 7 7 7 7.7 $996 19.2x $975 9.35% +2.9% +6.7% +5.3% +5.1% +0.2% +34.0% +35.0% +1.4% +0.23 -1.8% +0.5% 27.4x 3.2x +0.1% 0.0% +3.9% +$1.16 BLACKROCK INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Asset Management & Custody Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 13.9%, median net margin 28.7%, median ROE 11.4%, FCF yield 2.1%.
JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 202614.2x 202713.5x 202813.0x $329 元MC比 +1.1% -2.7% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: E_low_confidence / 検出事項: 低確信の旧簡易レビュー Banks 8 6 7 7 6 7 6.8 $334 $325 9.13% +1.2% +3.6% +3.6% +11.9% -0.5% +26.3% +71.1% +3.4% -0.08 +8.1% 15.5x 2.6x +0.8% +1.2% +1.7% - JPMORGAN CHASE & CO is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Diversified Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 5.6%, median net margin 20.6%, median ROE 10.2%, FCF yield 10.1%.
NTRS NORTHERN TRUST CORP 202616.3x 202715.0x 202814.0x 202913.3x $175 元MC比 +3.2% -4.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Banks 8 6 8 7 6 7 7.0 $177 $169 9.13% +2.0% +5.4% +3.2% +12.8% -0.6% +16.9% +70.0% +2.5% +0.08 +8.0% 15.5x 2.6x +0.3% +1.2% +0.5% - NORTHERN TRUST CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Asset Management & Custody Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.3%, median net margin 16.9%, median ROE 11.7%, FCF yield 15.3%.
GRMN GARMIN LTD 202625.6x 202724.3x 202822.6x $223 元MC比 -3.0% -4.3% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: E_low_confidence / 検出事項: 低確信の旧簡易レビュー Technology hardware 9 6 9 7 7 7 7.5 $240 27.9x $230 9.35% +3.3% +4.5% +4.5% +9.8% -0.2% +25.5% +41.2% +0.5% +0.60 -0.1% +0.4% 31.1x 6.1x +0.3% 0.0% +2.0% +$0.01 GARMIN LTD is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Consumer Electronics). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.7%, median net margin 22.1%, median ROE 18.0%, FCF yield 2.3%.
PFE PFIZER INC 202615.1x 202714.2x 202814.1x 202914.0x 203013.7x $22.4 元MC比 -3.1% -4.9% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Pharmaceuticals 9 3 8 8 7 5 6.7 $24.3 8.7x $23.1 8.60% -1.6% +3.2% +5.5% -12.5% +0.0% +19.9% +29.9% +0.1% -0.06 -1.5% +0.4% 24.2x 1.7x +0.7% 0.0% +3.0% +$0.01 PFIZER INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Pharmaceuticals). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.4%, median net margin 17.6%, median ROE 12.7%, FCF yield 5.9%.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 20269.6x 20279.6x 20289.6x 20299.8x 20309.9x $41.0 元MC比 +1.6% -5.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Telecom services 8 4 8 7 7 4 6.3 $42.6 7.2x $40.4 8.60% +0.2% -0.9% +4.7% +0.2% +0.1% +11.1% +63.6% 0.0% -0.14 -1.9% 15.4x 1.5x +0.4% 0.0% +3.4% $-0.25 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Integrated Telecommunication Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 2.4%, median net margin 10.0%, median ROE 20.5%, FCF yield 10.1%.
V VISA INC CLASS A 202633.3x 202731.9x 202830.6x 202929.0x 203028.0x $343 元MC比 +1.0% -6.1% -3.4% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 市場価値は概ね妥当〜小幅割高。従来の約21%割高判定は過大だが、8–10%要求では待つ(推定IRR 7.6% / 会社別CoE 8.0%)。投資妙味: 8%でもわずかに待つ。10%買値は約$293。 一方、顧客インセンティブは2025年度に+14%、訴訟引当もあり、規制・価格交渉力を無視して高い終価倍率を置けない。 Payment networks 10 7 9 7 7 8 8.0 $362 25.5x $340 8.91% +4.1% +4.8% +3.3% +16.8% -2.2% +42.8% +33.8% +2.4% +0.06 +8.8% +0.1% 41.2x 26.0x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.07 VISA INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Transaction & Payment Processing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 14.7%, median net margin 42.4%, median ROE 25.0%, FCF yield 3.0%.
IVZ INVESCO LTD 202621.3x 202717.8x 202815.5x 202914.1x $25.3 元MC比 0.0% -6.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: -60% clip; MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Asset management 8 5 8 8 6 6 6.8 $27.0 16.0x $25.3 9.35% +1.1% +13.5% +3.2% +2.5% -0.6% +17.3% +57.3% +4.5% 0.00 +2.2% +1.3% 14.6x 1.1x +0.1% 0.0% +0.9% +$0.05 INVESCO LTD is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Asset Management & Custody Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 3.7%, median net margin 15.9%, median ROE 8.7%, FCF yield 10.1%.
CPRT COPART INC 202617.9x 202717.1x 202816.1x 202915.6x 203015.0x $28.4 元MC比 +1.1% -6.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; MOAT mismatch Industrials 9 8 9 7 7 4 7.3 $30.0 12.7x $28.0 8.91% +3.0% +3.7% +10.8% +0.1% +36.4% +9.4% 0.0% -0.33 -2.1% +0.1% 27.3x 2.3x +0.5% 0.0% +3.4% +$0.00 COPART INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Diversified Support Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 12.1%, median net margin 22.2%, median ROE 23.2%, FCF yield 4.2%.
TXT TEXTRON INC 202615.5x 202714.4x 202813.7x 202913.5x 203013.6x $86.5 元MC比 +1.7% -8.1% -10.2% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧評価ほどの大幅割高ではないが、凍結価格92.50ドルでは小幅割高。航空機の高採算アフターマーケット、18.8十億ドルの受注残、BellのMV-75量産移行、Industrial分離による純粋な航空宇宙・防衛会社化を市場が先取りする合理性はある。一方、会社別資本コスト8.3%に対する市場暗黙IRRは7.68%で、正常化FCFEを基準にすると5年間約9.5%成長が必要。確率加重価値83.08ドル(現値比-10.2%)なので、深い割高ではなく『質を認めつつ待つ』(推定IRR 7.7% / 会社別CoE 8.3%)。投資妙味: 8%要求なら基準買値87ドル、9%なら73ドル、10%なら63ドル。8%要求でも現値はやや上で、買い急がない。 米政府売上の53%が固定価格・固定価格インセンティブ契約。MV-75のlong-lead LRIP optionは大半が固定価格で、会社は受注時に60-110百万ドルの不利な累積修正を見込む。MV-75は成長源である一方、設備・人員の先行投資と単一プログラム集中も強める。2026年の現金創出見通しは700-800百万ドルに対しcapex 650百万ドルで、受注残の増加が直ちにFCFEにならない。 Aerospace & defense 7 5 8 8 7 9 7.3 $92.5 13.1x $85.1 8.90% +1.6% +4.5% +7.1% +34.8% -1.4% +7.3% +39.7% +6.3% +0.17 +20.2% 23.2x 2.1x +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 TEXTRON INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Aerospace & Defense). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.3%, median net margin 5.2%, median ROE 12.6%, FCF yield 5.8%.
STT STATE STREET CORP 202614.0x 202712.9x 202812.3x 202911.6x $160 元MC比 +2.8% -8.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Banks 8 5 7 7 6 8 6.8 $171 $156 9.13% +1.2% +4.7% +2.8% +11.5% -0.8% +17.8% +74.4% +7.8% +0.02 +19.3% 14.3x 1.7x +0.6% +1.1% +1.3% - STATE STREET CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Asset Management & Custody Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.4%, median net margin 19.3%, median ROE 10.0%, FCF yield 8.0%.
LHX L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC 202628.7x 202725.1x 202823.0x 202921.8x 203020.3x $275 元MC比 -0.1% -9.0% +4.5% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 大幅割高ではなく概ね妥当。買収償却で低く見えるGAAP EPSではなく、2026年FCF約30億ドルを基準にすると確率加重価値315.67ドル(302.07ドル比+4.5%)。市場暗黙IRR8.65%は会社資本コスト8.3%をわずかに上回る。5.6Solの-60.0%は事業モデルとFCFの取り扱い誤り(推定IRR 8.6% / 会社別CoE 8.3%)。投資妙味: 8%要求の基準買値339ドルで許容、9%では286ドル、10%では247ドル。8%投資家は候補、9-10%投資家は小幅下落を待つ。 2025年売上の75%が固定価格で、原価超過リスクはLMT/NOCより契約比率上大きい。Aerojet買収由来の長期債務は約109億ドル、goodwill約200億ドル。利益率の一部は資産monetization、法的和解、LHX NeXtに支えられ、持続性を分ける必要がある。FCF約30億ドルの達成と負債削減が判定の中心。 Aerospace & defense 8 8 8 7 7 7 7.5 $302 18.0x $275 8.90% +3.6% +7.7% +0.1% +11.3% -1.3% +9.7% +52.7% +3.2% +0.07 +6.9% +0.8% 25.9x 4.6x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.44 L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Aerospace & Defense). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 10.2%, median net margin 7.2%, median ROE 9.7%, FCF yield 5.0%.
A AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC 202625.4x 202724.8x 202824.0x 202923.4x 203023.4x $125 元MC比 +5.4% -10.9% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: D_analyst_haircut / 検出事項: analyst haircut Health care 9 3 9 8 6 8 7.2 $133 23.4x $118 8.60% +0.6% +3.1% -0.9% +16.6% -1.5% +20.2% +45.6% +1.9% +0.31 +6.6% +0.3% 33.5x 9.9x +0.1% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.02 AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Life Sciences Tools & Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.8%, median net margin 14.4%, median ROE 20.5%, FCF yield 2.8%.
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC 202615.8x 202714.4x 202813.1x 202913.0x $57.2 元MC比 +2.7% -11.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Semiconductors 9 5 8 8 7 7 7.3 $62.6 10.9x $55.7 10.02% -0.4% +5.6% +7.0% -12.2% -0.2% +21.4% +23.9% +3.7% +0.12 +6.5% +1.3% 22.0x 1.7x +0.7% 0.0% +1.3% $-0.08 SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Semiconductors). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 9.2%, median net margin 18.0%, median ROE 15.1%, FCF yield 10.1%.
PNC PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP INC 202613.4x 202712.4x 202811.9x 202912.7x $216 元MC比 -2.0% -11.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Banks 8 5 7 7 5 7 6.5 $249 $221 9.13% +0.7% +2.0% +2.8% +7.8% -0.6% +23.1% +70.2% +3.0% +0.06 +7.0% 14.1x 1.5x +1.5% +1.6% +1.4% - PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Diversified Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 7.3%, median net margin 23.8%, median ROE 10.4%, FCF yield 9.5%.
MA MASTERCARD INC CLASS A 202630.3x 202728.3x 202826.5x 202924.8x 203023.5x $497 元MC比 +4.9% -12.2% +9.5% 手応えあり 深掘り 市場整合: 小幅割安。8–9%要求なら候補、10%要求なら$503前後まで待つ(推定IRR 9.2% / 会社別CoE 8.2%)。投資妙味: 8–9%なら候補。10%買値は約$503。 ただし2025年の顧客リベート・インセンティブは$20.5bn(+16%)、上位5顧客が売上の21%。国内決済網の保護政策、データローカライゼーション、規制がtake rateを抑える可能性がある。 Payment networks 10 8 9 8 6 8 8.2 $539 24.6x $474 8.91% +4.4% +5.7% +26.7% +15.2% -2.0% +42.6% +27.8% +2.2% +0.38 +8.4% +0.1% 33.9x 10.6x +0.8% +0.3% 0.0% $-0.13 MASTERCARD INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Transaction & Payment Processing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 12.8%, median net margin 37.9%, median ROE 67.4%, FCF yield 3.3%.
HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC 202617.4x 202716.5x 202815.0x 202914.8x 203014.6x $211 元MC比 +5.2% -12.7% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; quality premium; MOAT mismatch Industrials 8 4 8 8 6 8 7.0 $230 11.8x $201 8.91% +0.4% +2.0% +9.4% +2.7% -0.8% +14.4% +52.6% +4.8% +0.05 +7.7% +0.3% 19.3x 3.2x +1.8% +0.5% 0.0% $-0.22 HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Industrial Conglomerates). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 0.9%, median net margin 11.4%, median ROE 26.3%, FCF yield 6.9%.
MSCI MSCI INC 202633.8x 202731.6x 202830.0x 202928.5x 203027.4x $546 元MC比 +4.1% -13.1% -3.9% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 市場価値は概ね妥当〜小幅割高。従来の約34%割高は過大だが、10%要求では待つ(推定IRR 8.0% / 会社別CoE 8.5%)。投資妙味: 8%でほぼ妥当。10%買値は約$510。 2025年の資産連動Run Rate +25.6%と2026年1Q +25.1%は相場・資金流入の追い風を含む。これを恒久成長とみなさず、Sustainability & Climateの低い純新規販売と高レバレッジも織り込む。 Financial data & exchanges 9 8 9 8 6 8 8.0 $603 25.4x $524 8.60% +3.8% +5.1% +10.3% -0.9% +40.3% +26.2% +2.6% +0.12 +7.3% +0.2% 38.4x +1.5% +0.1% 0.0% $-0.31 MSCI INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Financial Exchanges & Data). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 12.9%, median net margin 22.3%, median ROE 13.2%, FCF yield 3.5%.
REGN REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC 202615.1x 202713.8x 202812.8x 202911.9x 203011.7x $600 元MC比 +5.7% -13.2% +16.9% 不確実 深掘り EYLEA family米売上-10%、biosimilar/Vabysmo、Dupixent profit-share、臨床・薬価の二値リスク。 Biotechnology 8 7 7 7 7 7 7.2 $654 18.7x $568 10.46% +1.4% +5.0% +7.5% +17.9% -0.8% +36.4% +43.2% +3.0% +0.57 +1.0% +1.0% 19.4x 1.9x +0.4% 0.0% +0.4% $-0.17 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Health Care / Biotechnology). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 33.0%, median net margin 20.3%, median ROE 16.3%, FCF yield 4.8%.
TEL TE Connectivity plc 202626.2x 202723.3x 202821.9x 202920.4x $172 元MC比 +1.1% -13.8% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade; analyst haircut; MOAT mismatch Electronic components 7 5 7 8 6 8 6.8 $197 16.7x $170 9.35% +1.2% +5.9% +1.3% +11.3% -1.3% +14.9% +50.2% +2.8% +0.18 +10.0% +0.3% 26.6x 6.4x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.08 TE Connectivity plc is in Kabufu's US research universe (Information Technology / Electronic Manufacturing Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.6%, median net margin 11.0%, median ROE 16.1%, FCF yield 5.0%.
BR BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS INC 202617.8x 202717.7x 202817.4x 202917.1x 203016.7x $127 元MC比 +2.7% -14.2% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: B_business_model / 検出事項: business-model template; analyst haircut Business services 8 6 8 8 6 6 7.0 $144 13.3x $124 8.91% +2.3% +1.7% +7.3% +4.3% -0.2% +12.0% +41.7% +0.5% +0.24 -1.2% +0.3% 24.2x 4.6x +0.2% 0.0% +2.1% $-0.14 BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Industrials / Data Processing & Outsourced Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.9%, median net margin 9.8%, median ROE 28.8%, FCF yield 5.7%.
GOOG ALPHABET INC CLASS C 202629.0x 202728.4x 202826.7x 202925.2x 203023.9x $319 元MC比 +4.7% -14.5% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: MC-to-Sol reversal; analyst haircut Internet services 9 9 9 7 6 8 8.0 $356 27.7x $304 9.57% +4.8% +4.7% +12.8% +20.0% -0.9% +31.1% +19.4% +2.5% +0.77 +9.3% +0.9% 40.7x 6.2x +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% +$0.09 ALPHABET INC CLASS C is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Interactive Media & Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 21.1%, median net margin 22.3%, median ROE 17.7%, FCF yield 1.7%.
RF REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP 202611.9x 202711.5x 202811.2x $25.9 元MC比 +0.3% -14.6% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: large Sol downgrade Banks 6 3 6 7 5 8 5.8 $30.3 $25.9 9.13% -0.2% +1.1% +2.9% +5.2% -0.7% +25.1% +73.1% +3.4% +0.10 +6.7% 11.9x 1.1x +1.4% +1.6% +1.4% - REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP is in Kabufu's US research universe (Financials / Regional Banks). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.1%, median net margin 19.8%, median ROE 7.0%, FCF yield 7.7%.
PHM PULTEGROUP INC 202611.7x 202711.0x 202810.3x $117 元MC比 +3.5% -15.4% +0.4% 不確実 簡易 Q1 EPS $1.79対前年$2.57、粗利率24.4%、backlog減。住宅金利・affordability・incentiveで利益分布が広い。 Consumer discretionary 7 4 7 8 6 8 6.7 $134 8.7x $113 9.35% +0.3% +3.3% +9.5% +15.9% -1.5% +15.4% +46.9% +6.2% -0.03 +23.6% +0.3% 14.5x 1.4x +0.8% 0.0% 0.0% $-0.05 PULTEGROUP INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Discretionary / Homebuilding). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 1.0%, median net margin 8.1%, median ROE 11.7%, FCF yield 6.8%.
GOOGL ALPHABET INC CLASS A 202629.3x 202728.7x 202827.0x 202925.7x 203024.2x $309 元MC比 +2.3% -16.0% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: D_analyst_haircut / 検出事項: analyst haircut Internet services 9 9 9 7 6 8 8.0 $360 27.8x $302 9.57% +4.6% +4.5% +12.6% +19.7% -0.9% +31.0% +19.1% +2.5% +0.86 +9.3% +0.9% 40.6x 6.2x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% +$0.09 ALPHABET INC CLASS A is in Kabufu's US research universe (Communication / Interactive Media & Services). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 21.1%, median net margin 22.3%, median ROE 17.7%, FCF yield 1.7%.
MOS MOSAIC 202612.1x 20278.9x 20288.9x 20298.1x 20307.9x $16.9 元MC比 -4.5% -16.3% 要再検証 再審査待ち 要再検証(低確信): 旧簡易評価の大幅割高判定を取り下げ。一次資料・会社別資本コスト・市場インプライド前提を確認中。監査分類: A_model_conflict / 検出事項: -60% clip; MC-to-Sol reversal; MOAT mismatch Materials 7 4 7 7 6 9 6.7 $21.1 5.2x $17.7 9.35% -0.2% +5.8% +4.6% -11.7% -0.2% +8.3% +37.2% +4.6% +0.34 +16.1% +0.3% 11.1x 0.5x +0.9% 0.0% +1.2% $-0.19 MOSAIC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Materials / Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 4.2%, median net margin 9.8%, median ROE 9.5%, FCF yield -7.3%.
CHD CHURCH AND DWIGHT INC 202628.6x 202727.2x 202826.1x 202925.4x 203025.2x $81.3 元MC比 -0.7% -17.0% -10.0% 不確実 深掘り 市場整合: 旧判定の約55%割高は誤差が大きい。高シェアの日用品、継続的なプレミアム化、低い資本集約度、強い粗利回復には24倍前後の品質倍率と7.6%程度のCoEが妥当。ただし98.60ドルの市場期待IRRは約6.4%で、CoEにも8%要求にも届かない。優良企業だが、現値は成長レンジ上限を長く維持する前提であり、10%程度の割高と判定する(推定IRR 6.4% / 会社別CoE 7.6%)。投資妙味: 8%価値85.69ドル、9%78.58ドル、10%72.13ドル。98.60ドルでは8〜10%要求を満たさず、会社固有CoEでの加重公正価値88.74ドルも上回る。 品質は高いが、正規化EPS3.75ドルに対して現値は約26倍で、会社見通し上限に近い成長の継続を要求する。Waterpikの弱さ、ブランド買収の選別、販売促進費、22億ドルの債務は、KOやCLより高いCoEを使う理由。数量成長が販促による一時的な押上げなら、24倍の終価も守れない。 Consumer staples 9 6 9 8 6 8 7.7 $98.6 21.1x $81.9 8.60% +1.9% +4.1% 0.0% +11.5% -0.9% +13.4% +43.0% +1.5% +0.42 +0.9% +0.2% 29.6x 8.7x +0.3% 0.0% +0.4% $-0.07 CHURCH AND DWIGHT INC is in Kabufu's US research universe (Consumer Staples / Household Products). TradingView-based quantitative scores use 20 annual rows: revenue CAGR 6.3%, median net margin 12.0%, median ROE 17.8%, FCF yield 4.3%.
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対応銘柄は順次拡充予定(β版)

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