AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
CTBC Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
2891 · TWD · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
銀行・保険の競争力と規制資本を踏まえた普通株の10年評価
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
預金・決済・カード事業と生命保険を持つ金融グループです。普通株に帰属する利益と優先株・非支配持分を分け、保険の評価損益、規制資本、子会社から持株会社に上がる現金、株式報酬による希薄化を考慮します。2026年11月6日普通株終値は73.40台湾ドル。株式数は同日の台湾証券取引所資料で確認しましたが、信託等の配当権は未確認です。基準日時点の財務と将来の利益・配当・資本規制はシナリオ上の推計で、将来の収益を保証しません。現地源泉税、ETF経費、為替変動は含みません。
事業
台湾の銀行、決済・カード、生命保険を中心とした金融持株会社です。
競争力・事業の質
預金・カード基盤が強みですが、信用損失、生命保険の市場変動と資本規制が配当余力に影響します。
業界と環境
銀行と保険の市場環境、規制、投資資産と保険負債の評価を継続して確認します。
財務・資本配分
親会社と子会社の資本・現金を分け、優先株と非支配持分を普通株に帰属する価値から区別します。
評価の前提と確認
連結現金やOCI評価益をそのまま配当可能額とせず、普通株主への持続可能な還元を複数ケースで評価します。
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 10.50%
- nominal_currency
TWD
- basis
hypothetical discount hurdle not company WACC and not USD/JPY ETF return
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 強気 | 10.0% | 8,578.31 | 15,655.01 |
| やや強気 | 20.0% | 6,813.21 | 10,769.62 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 5,506.68 | 7,503.58 |
| やや弱気 | 20.0% | 2,979.09 | 3,851.48 |
| 危機 | 10.0% | 662.26 | 1,480.40 |
やや強気（確率 20.0%）
収益と資本余力が緩やかに改善するケース。
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- 7.039014374
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 46
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-12-31
- year
- 7.151266256
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 47
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-06-15
- year
- 7.605749487
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 767.092567109
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2033
- 48
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-07-10
- year
- 7.674195756
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 19854699929
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2033
- 49
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
- year
- 7.750855578
- 金額
- 760.18584317
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 767.092567109
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.99099623143944
- ex_date_assumed
2034-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2033
- ex_date
2034-07-10
- 50
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
- year
- 7.750855578
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 51
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-11-20
- year
- 8.038329911
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 52
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-12-31
- year
- 8.150581793
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 53
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-06-15
- year
- 8.605065024
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 801.972302293
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 54
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-07-10
- year
- 8.673511294
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 19879699929
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 55
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 793.752078178
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 801.972302293
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.98974999000348
- ex_date_assumed
2035-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- ex_date
2035-07-10
- 56
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 57
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-11-20
- year
- 9.037645448
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 58
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-12-31
- year
- 9.149897331
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 59
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-06-16
- year
- 9.609856263
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 803.056747898
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 60
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-07-10
- year
- 9.675564682
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 19904699929
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 61
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 793.827119595
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 803.056747898
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.98850687908805
- ex_date_assumed
2036-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- ex_date
2036-07-10
- 62
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 63
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-10-20
- year
- 9.954825462
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 64
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-11-06
- year
- 10.001368925
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
mandatory_terminal_assumption_reset_and_valuation
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
その他の数値・前提
- scenario
mild_bull
- name_ja
やや強気
- 状態
all_hypothetical_forecasts
- parameters
内容を開く
- prob
- 20.00%
- label_ja
やや強気
- ni_2027
- 930
- g_ni
- 0.045
- payout
- 0.64
- loan_g
- 0.047
- deposit_g
- 0.05
- life_liability_g
- 0.038
- reg_req_g
- 0.042
- subbank_req_g
- 0.043
- sublife_req_g
- 0.037
- cap_profit_factor
- 0.93
- oci_2027
- 70
- oci_repeat
- 40
- credit_rate
- 0.0038
- req_buffer
- 30
- sbc_shares_millions
- 25
- 資本コスト
- 10.50%
- terminal_g
- 0.025
- terminal_req_g
- 0.026
- issue_price
- 82
- efftax
- 0.2
- holdco_cash_cost
- 15
- 期間内の親会社利益合計（億）
- 11229.592505035
- 期間内株主受取
- 6813.208246153
- 終価
- 10769.616479909
- キャッシュフローの算出方法
timed_holder_cashflows_v1
- annual_ledger
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- year
- 2026
- period_id
2026_postcutoff_55d
- 開始日
2026-11-07
- 終了日
2026-12-31
- period_class
initial_partial
- days
- 55
- calendar_year_days
- 365
- year_fraction
- 0.15068493150685
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- 0.0027378507871321
- end_year_fraction_from_cutoff
- 0.15058179329227
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hypothetical_forecast_not_company_guidance
- parent_attributable_net_income_before_preferred_claim_oku
- 134.448630137
- preferred_dividend_allocated_for_common_profit_oku
- 1.886542192
- parent_ordinary_net_income_oku
- 132.562087945
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- 2.151178082
- consolidated_net_income_oku
- 136.599808219
- tax_expense_proxy_oku
- 34.149952055
- consolidated_profit_before_tax_oku
- 170.749760274
- net_operating_revenue_oku
- 388.134246575
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- 27.28435206
- other_operating_expenses_proxy_oku
- 190.100134241
- bank_pretax_credit_operating_surplus_after_tax_oku
- 124.680683703
- estimated_insurance_service_result_after_tax_oku
- 34.306617295
- estimated_insurance_investment_and_finance_after_tax_oku
- -1.366702911
- parent_oci_not_distributable_cash_oku
- 0
- nci_oci_oku
- 0
- sbc_expense_already_deducted_in_net_income_oku
- 1.95890411
- sbc_equity_settlement_credit_oku
- 1.95890411
- sbc_capital_eligible_credit_proxy_oku
- 0.979452055
- bank_net_after_tax_oku
- 102.853202055
- life_net_after_tax_oku
- 32.939914384
- other_subs_net_after_tax_oku
- 10.08364726
- consolidation_holding_adjustments_after_tax_oku
- -9.276955479
- parent_equity_open_oku
- 7381.979480548
- parent_equity_end_oku
- 7518.387014795
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- 7218.750334795
- preferred_book_claim_end_oku
- 299.63668
- nci_equity_open_oku
- 300.81913
- nci_equity_end_oku
- 302.217395753
- nci_dividends_external_oku
- 0.752912329
- parent_holdco_cash_open_proxy_oku
- 70
- parent_holdco_cash_end_proxy_oku
- 67.739726027
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- 0
- bank_subsidiary_capital_injection_from_holdco_oku
- 0
- life_subsidiary_capital_injection_from_holdco_oku
- 0
- bank_to_parent_upstream_cash_oku
- 0
- life_to_parent_upstream_cash_oku
- 0
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- 0
- parent_holdco_cost_cash_oku
- 2.260273973
- consolidated_cash_open_proxy_oku
- 1356.12611
- consolidated_cash_end_proxy_oku
- 1442.97978359
- customer_deposits_open_oku
- 62891.401816471
- customer_deposits_end_oku
- 63365.241145225
- loans_net_open_oku
- 47649.70575129
- loans_net_end_oku
- 47987.17010572
- insurance_contract_liabilities_open_oku
- 19175.969850688
- insurance_contract_liabilities_end_oku
- 19285.771979422
- wholesale_repo_end_oku
- 1640.582625989
- wholesale_commercial_paper_end_oku
- 827.236474962
- wholesale_bonds_end_oku
- 2211.183839334
- wholesale_due_to_banks_end_oku
- 768.752833444
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- 8793.769568178
- consolidated_total_liabilities_end_oku
- 96892.538466554
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- 104713.1428771
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- 55282.992987791
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- 6750.721713356
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- 5947.52674822
- group_regulatory_capital_req_end_oku
- 5985.167259969
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- 112.790861477
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- 765.554453387
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- 4948.492014
- bank_eligible_capital_end_proxy_oku
- 5037.974299788
- bank_regulatory_requirement_end_proxy_oku
- 3541.824280826
- bank_eligible_over_required_ratio
- 1.422423559
- life_eligible_capital_open_proxy_oku
- 2742.0294281
- life_eligible_capital_end_proxy_oku
- 2771.016552758
- life_regulatory_requirement_end_proxy_oku
- 2188.698788558
- life_eligible_over_required_ratio
- 1.266056603
- ordinary_shares_open
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- common_shares_external_paid_in_issue
- 0
- common_shares_restricted_stock_granted
- 3767123
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- 19679699929
- old_shares_held_unchanged
- 19675932806
- old_cohort_ownership_dividend_record
- 1
- old_cohort_ownership_end
- 0.999808578
- old_cohort_subscriptions_cash_paid_oku
- 0
- issuer_total_ordinary_dividend_oku
- 0
- old_cohort_ordinary_dividends_received_oku
- 0
- issuer_paid_preferred_dividends_oku
- 0
- issuer_share_repurchase_cash_oku
- 0
- old_cohort_direct_buyback_tender_receipts_oku
- 0
- issuer_paid_in_common_issue_proceeds_oku
- 0
- forecast_dividend_source_annual_prior_common_earnings_oku
- 0
- forecast_dividend_before_capital_cash_constraints_oku
- 0
- estimated_regulatory_dividend_capacity_oku
- 436.370254089
- estimated_parent_liquidity_dividend_capacity_oku
- 137.631510103
- timed_holder_cashflows
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-11-10
- year
- 0.010951403
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
unconfirmed_october_monthly_results_recheck
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
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- はい
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-11-18
- year
- 0.032854209
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
unconfirmed_q3_financials_recheck
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-12-15
- year
- 0.106776181
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 3767123
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-12-31
- year
- 0.150581793
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_capital_regulatory_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 2
内容を開く
- year
- 2027
- period_id
2027_full_year
- 開始日
2027-01-01
- 終了日
2027-12-31
- period_class
full_year
- days
- 365
- calendar_year_days
- 365
- year_fraction
- 1
- start_year_fraction_from_cutoff
- 0.1533196440794
- end_year_fraction_from_cutoff
- 1.1498973305955
- data_status
hypothetical_forecast_not_company_guidance
- parent_attributable_net_income_before_preferred_claim_oku
- 930
- preferred_dividend_allocated_for_common_profit_oku
- 12.51978
- parent_ordinary_net_income_oku
- 917.48022
- nci_net_income_oku
- 14.88
- consolidated_net_income_oku
- 944.88
- tax_expense_proxy_oku
- 236.22
- consolidated_profit_before_tax_oku
- 1181.1
- net_operating_revenue_oku
- 2673.6804
- expected_credit_loss_pnl_oku
- 182.351246402
- other_operating_expenses_proxy_oku
- 1310.229153598
- bank_pretax_credit_operating_surplus_after_tax_oku
- 857.330997121
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- 236.4575
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- -8.6075
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- 68.6
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- 1.4
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- 13.299
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- 13.299
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- 6.6495
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- 711.45
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- 227.85
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- 69.75
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- 302.217395753
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- 313.289395753
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- 5.208
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- 67.739726027
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- 60
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- 0
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- 0
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- 554.371318061
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- 0
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- 0
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- 15
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- 1442.97978359
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- 50242.567100689
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- 878.51588438
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- common_shares_restricted_stock_granted
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- 0
- issuer_total_ordinary_dividend_oku
- 534.591264088
- old_cohort_ordinary_dividends_received_oku
- 534.488931682
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- 12.51978
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- 0
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-06-15
- year
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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内容を開く
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2027-07-12
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-08-09
- year
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- 534.488931682
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2027-07-12
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-08-09
- year
- 0.755646817
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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- 12.51978
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- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-11-20
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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forecast_assumption
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- review_required
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-12-31
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year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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内容を開く
- year
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- period_id
2028_full_year
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2028-01-01
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2028-12-31
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full_year
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- 60
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-06-15
- year
- 1.607118412
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- 587.1873408
- review_required
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- 2027
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-07-10
- year
- 1.675564682
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- review_required
- はい
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- 2027
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-08-07
- year
- 1.752224504
- 金額
- 586.3300991
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2028-07-10
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- 2027
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-08-07
- year
- 1.752224504
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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forecast_assumption
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- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-11-20
- year
- 2.039698836
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- review_required
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- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-12-31
- year
- 2.151950719
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 4
内容を開く
- year
- 2029
- period_id
2029_full_year
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2029-01-01
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2029-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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- 60
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- 60
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- 0
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- 641.4911208
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-06-15
- year
- 2.606433949
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 613.9713408
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- 2028
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-07-10
- year
- 2.674880219
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- はい
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- 2028
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-08-07
- year
- 2.751540041
- 金額
- 612.298154045
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2029-07-10
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- 2028
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-08-07
- year
- 2.751540041
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 12.51978
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- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-11-20
- year
- 3.039014374
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- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- review_required
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- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-12-31
- year
- 3.151266256
- 金額
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year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 5
内容を開く
- year
- 2030
- period_id
2030_full_year
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2030-01-01
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2030-12-31
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full_year
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-06-17
- year
- 3.611225188
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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- 641.9606208
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- 2029
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-07-10
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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- はい
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-08-07
- year
- 3.750855578
- 金額
- 639.400956955
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2030-07-10
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-08-07
- year
- 3.750855578
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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- 12.51978
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- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-11-20
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-12-31
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- 0
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year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
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内容を開く
- year
- 2031
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2031_full_year
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2031-01-01
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2031-12-31
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full_year
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- 1025.710979464
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-06-16
- year
- 4.607802875
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 671.2094184
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- 2030
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-07-10
- year
- 4.673511294
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 19779699929
- review_required
- はい
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- 19675932806
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- 2030
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-08-07
- year
- 4.750171116
- 金額
- 667.688158192
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2031-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2030
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-08-07
- year
- 4.750171116
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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- 12.51978
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- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-11-20
- year
- 5.037645448
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
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- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-12-31
- year
- 5.149897331
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 7
内容を開く
- year
- 2032
- period_id
2032_full_year
- 開始日
2032-01-01
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2032-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-06-15
- year
- 5.607118412
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 701.774411892
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- はい
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- 2031
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-07-12
- year
- 5.681040383
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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forecast_assumption
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- はい
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- 19675932806
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- 2031
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-08-09
- year
- 5.757700205
- 金額
- 697.211582244
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2032-07-12
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- 2031
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-08-09
- year
- 5.757700205
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 12.51978
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- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-11-20
- year
- 6.039698836
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- review_required
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- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-12-31
- year
- 6.151950719
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- はい
- 8
内容を開く
- year
- 2033
- period_id
2033_full_year
- 開始日
2033-01-01
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2033-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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hypothetical_forecast_not_company_guidance
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- 728.025322992
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- 886.516779223
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-06-15
- year
- 6.606433949
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 733.714830091
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2032
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-07-11
- year
- 6.67761807
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 19829699929
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2032
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-08-08
- year
- 6.754277892
- 金額
- 728.025322992
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
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- 0.99224561523621
- ex_date_assumed
2033-07-11
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2032
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-08-08
- year
- 6.754277892
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-11-20
- year
- 7.039014374
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-12-31
- year
- 7.151266256
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 9
内容を開く
- year
- 2034
- period_id
2034_full_year
- 開始日
2034-01-01
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2034-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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- 12.51978
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- 0
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-06-15
- year
- 7.605749487
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 767.092567109
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- はい
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- 2033
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-07-10
- year
- 7.674195756
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 19854699929
- review_required
- はい
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- 19675932806
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- 2033
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
- year
- 7.750855578
- 金額
- 760.18584317
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2034-07-10
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- 2033
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
- year
- 7.750855578
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-11-20
- year
- 8.038329911
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 25000000
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- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-12-31
- year
- 8.150581793
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 10
内容を開く
- year
- 2035
- period_id
2035_full_year
- 開始日
2035-01-01
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2035-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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- 365
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- common_shares_external_paid_in_issue
- 0
- common_shares_restricted_stock_granted
- 25000000
- ordinary_shares_at_dividend_record
- 19879699929
- ordinary_shares_end
- 19904699929
- old_shares_held_unchanged
- 19675932806
- old_cohort_ownership_dividend_record
- 0.98974999
- old_cohort_ownership_end
- 0.988506879
- old_cohort_subscriptions_cash_paid_oku
- 0
- issuer_total_ordinary_dividend_oku
- 801.972302293
- old_cohort_ordinary_dividends_received_oku
- 793.752078178
- issuer_paid_preferred_dividends_oku
- 12.51978
- issuer_share_repurchase_cash_oku
- 0
- old_cohort_direct_buyback_tender_receipts_oku
- 0
- issuer_paid_in_common_issue_proceeds_oku
- 0
- forecast_dividend_source_annual_prior_common_earnings_oku
- 1253.081722333
- forecast_dividend_before_capital_cash_constraints_oku
- 801.972302293
- estimated_regulatory_dividend_capacity_oku
- 1873.205488566
- estimated_parent_liquidity_dividend_capacity_oku
- 905.797878027
- timed_holder_cashflows
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-06-15
- year
- 8.605065024
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 801.972302293
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-07-10
- year
- 8.673511294
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 19879699929
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 793.752078178
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 801.972302293
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.98974999000348
- ex_date_assumed
2035-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-11-20
- year
- 9.037645448
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-12-31
- year
- 9.149897331
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 11
内容を開く
- year
- 2036
- period_id
2036_to_2036-11-06_311d
- 開始日
2036-01-01
- 終了日
2036-11-06
- period_class
terminal_partial
- days
- 311
- calendar_year_days
- 366
- year_fraction
- 0.84972677595628
- start_year_fraction_from_cutoff
- 9.1526351813826
- end_year_fraction_from_cutoff
- 10.001368925394
- data_status
hypothetical_forecast_not_company_guidance
- parent_attributable_net_income_before_preferred_claim_oku
- 1174.380594159
- preferred_dividend_allocated_for_common_profit_oku
- 10.638392295
- parent_ordinary_net_income_oku
- 1163.742201863
- nci_net_income_oku
- 18.790089507
- consolidated_net_income_oku
- 1193.170683665
- tax_expense_proxy_oku
- 298.292670916
- consolidated_profit_before_tax_oku
- 1491.463354581
- net_operating_revenue_oku
- 3178.081114962
- expected_credit_loss_pnl_oku
- 234.265413478
- other_operating_expenses_proxy_oku
- 1452.352346902
- bank_pretax_credit_operating_surplus_after_tax_oku
- 1085.813485314
- estimated_insurance_service_result_after_tax_oku
- 290.33161881
- estimated_insurance_investment_and_finance_after_tax_oku
- -2.608373241
- parent_oci_not_distributable_cash_oku
- 33.309289617
- nci_oci_oku
- 0.679781421
- sbc_expense_already_deducted_in_net_income_oku
- 13.866887527
- sbc_equity_settlement_credit_oku
- 13.866887527
- sbc_capital_eligible_credit_proxy_oku
- 6.933443764
- bank_net_after_tax_oku
- 898.401154531
- life_net_after_tax_oku
- 287.723245569
- other_subs_net_after_tax_oku
- 88.078544562
- consolidation_holding_adjustments_after_tax_oku
- -81.032260997
- parent_equity_open_oku
- 11911.715524223
- parent_equity_end_oku
- 12317.695767628
- parent_ordinary_equity_end_oku
- 12018.059087628
- preferred_book_claim_end_oku
- 299.63668
- nci_equity_open_oku
- 414.4954446
- nci_equity_end_oku
- 427.3887842
- nci_dividends_external_oku
- 6.576531327
- parent_holdco_cash_open_proxy_oku
- 60
- parent_holdco_cash_end_proxy_oku
- 60
- parent_holdco_external_equity_inflow_oku
- 0
- bank_subsidiary_capital_injection_from_holdco_oku
- 0
- life_subsidiary_capital_injection_from_holdco_oku
- 0
- bank_to_parent_upstream_cash_oku
- 566.058506928
- life_to_parent_upstream_cash_oku
- 227.032504784
- other_to_parent_upstream_cash_oku
- 35.231417825
- parent_holdco_cost_cash_oku
- 12.745901639
- consolidated_cash_open_proxy_oku
- 1756.576096403
- consolidated_cash_end_proxy_oku
- 1696.724944731
- customer_deposits_open_oku
- 98300.286500871
- customer_deposits_end_oku
- 102476.70577707
- loans_net_open_oku
- 72551.312686662
- loans_net_end_oku
- 75448.805958632
- insurance_contract_liabilities_open_oku
- 26978.214868485
- insurance_contract_liabilities_end_oku
- 27849.331107053
- wholesale_repo_end_oku
- 1993.968408383
- wholesale_commercial_paper_end_oku
- 930.379735474
- wholesale_bonds_end_oku
- 2535.726450231
- wholesale_due_to_banks_end_oku
- 890.187730533
- other_liabilities_end_oku
- 11215.510194907
- consolidated_total_liabilities_end_oku
- 147891.80940365
- consolidated_assets_end_oku
- 160636.89395548
- other_financial_and_nonfinancial_assets_residual_proxy_oku
- 83491.363052116
- group_capital_eligible_open_oku
- 10215.275391082
- group_capital_eligible_end_oku
- 10518.180030007
- group_regulatory_capital_req_open_oku
- 8667.338582757
- group_regulatory_capital_req_end_oku
- 8976.663108899
- group_capital_adequacy_end_pct
- 117.172493859
- group_headroom_above_min_oku
- 1541.516921107
- bank_eligible_capital_open_proxy_oku
- 5949.543265537
- bank_eligible_capital_end_proxy_oku
- 6166.929172887
- bank_regulatory_requirement_end_proxy_oku
- 5362.547106858
- bank_eligible_over_required_ratio
- 1.15
- life_eligible_capital_open_proxy_oku
- 4680.586344933
- life_eligible_capital_end_proxy_oku
- 4727.796329037
- life_regulatory_requirement_end_proxy_oku
- 3130.68035942
- life_eligible_over_required_ratio
- 1.510149803
- ordinary_shares_open
- 19904699929
- common_shares_external_paid_in_issue
- 0
- common_shares_restricted_stock_granted
- 25000000
- ordinary_shares_at_dividend_record
- 19904699929
- ordinary_shares_end
- 19929699929
- old_shares_held_unchanged
- 19675932806
- old_cohort_ownership_dividend_record
- 0.988506879
- old_cohort_ownership_end
- 0.987266887
- old_cohort_subscriptions_cash_paid_oku
- 0
- issuer_total_ordinary_dividend_oku
- 803.056747898
- old_cohort_ordinary_dividends_received_oku
- 793.827119595
- issuer_paid_preferred_dividends_oku
- 12.51978
- issuer_share_repurchase_cash_oku
- 0
- old_cohort_direct_buyback_tender_receipts_oku
- 0
- issuer_paid_in_common_issue_proceeds_oku
- 0
- forecast_dividend_source_annual_prior_common_earnings_oku
- 1310.033789938
- forecast_dividend_before_capital_cash_constraints_oku
- 838.42162556
- estimated_regulatory_dividend_capacity_oku
- 1850.857198016
- estimated_parent_liquidity_dividend_capacity_oku
- 803.056747898
- timed_holder_cashflows
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-06-16
- year
- 9.609856263
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 803.056747898
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-07-10
- year
- 9.675564682
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 19904699929
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 793.827119595
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 803.056747898
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.98850687908805
- ex_date_assumed
2036-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-10-20
- year
- 9.954825462
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 25000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-11-06
- year
- 10.001368925
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
mandatory_terminal_assumption_reset_and_valuation
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- terminal_model
内容を開く
- 方法
2037_sustainable_regulatory_distributable_owner_cash_capitalized_not_PE
- 2036_full_fy_parent_ni_before_preferred_claim_oku
- 1382.068480585
- 2036_reported_model_partial_parent_ni_oku
- 1174.380594159
- 2037_full_year_parent_ni_before_preferred_claim_oku
- 1416.6201926
- 2037_sbc_expense_already_deducted_in_ni_oku
- 16.694573293
- 2037_regulatory_profit_recognition_ratio_assumed
- 0.93
- 2037_eligible_sbc_equity_credit_proxy_oku
- 8.347286647
- 2037_group_eligible_capital_required_growth_oku
- 246.229869077
- 2037_management_liquidity_contingency_buffer_oku
- 30
- 2037_preferred_share_prior_cash_claim_oku
- 12.51978
- 2037_group_regulatory_distributable_after_preferred_oku
- 1037.054416688
- 2037_bank_sustainable_upstream_oku
- 677.653614751
- 2037_life_sustainable_upstream_oku
- 172.212864231
- 2037_other_sustainable_upstream_oku
- 42.498605778
- 2037_subsidiary_upstream_cash_cap_after_holdco_expenses_preferred_oku
- 864.84530476
- 2037_sustainable_company_total_common_cash_oku
- 864.84530476
- 2037_forecast_new_restricted_grant_common_shares
- 25000000
- 2037_restricted_grant_assumed_date_after_first_2037_dividend
2037-11-20
- 2037_forecast_new_public_common_issue_proceeds_oku
- 0
- 2037_forecast_new_public_common_issue_shares
- 0
- 2037_public_issue_assumed_date_before_first_2037_dividend
- 未確認
- 2036_11_06_total_common_shares
- 19929699929
- 2037_common_shares_at_august_dividend
- 19929699929
- 2037_common_shares_after_assumed_grant
- 19954699929
- initial_old_holder_common_shares
- 19675932806
- old_cohort_ownership_on_2037_payment
- 0.987266887
- 2037_cash_to_2026_11_06_old_ordinary_cohort_oku
- 853.833131691
- company_cash_per_share_2037_twd
- 4.339479811
- first_postterminal_assumed_cash_date
2037-08-07
- time_years_terminal_to_first_cash
- 0.750171116
- long_run_annual_company_distributable_cash_growth_assumed
- 0.025
- long_run_annual_new_common_share_dilution_pct
- 0.125440925
- long_run_annual_old_cohort_per_share_cash_growth_adjusted_for_dilution
- 0.023715841
- terminal_required_return_twd
- 0.105
- terminal_cash_yield_spread
- 0.081284159
- terminal_2036_11_06_old_cohort_value_oku
- 10769.616479909
- terminal_2036_11_06_old_cohort_per_initial_share_twd
- 54.734972853
- terminal_formula
2037 old-cohort cash AFTER assumed 2037 public-issue-before-ex / (k - ((1+g_company)/(1+SBC_and_paid_issue_future_annual_rate)-1)) * (1+k)^(1-days_until_first_payment/365.25); separate 2037 SBC grant happens AFTER first dividend; NI already SBC-expensed, eligible SBC capital credit once, recurring per-share dilution once
- 注記
SBC compensation expense remains in parent NI; issuer capital eligibility gets separate capital-settlement credit. New common shares reduce old-holder fraction; no imaginary issuer buyback funding of grants.
- present_value_of_actual_old_holder_distributions_oku
- 4053.302559679
- present_value_of_terminal_old_holding_oku
- 3967.510619297
- fair_value_oku_at_assumed_discount
- 8020.813178977
- fair_value_twd_per_initial_common_share
- 40.764589197
- scenario_owner_IRR_at_market_price
- 0.024278383
- current_market_price_twd
- 73.4
- equity_issuance_total_new_paid_common_shares
- 0
- employee_grants_total_new_common_shares
- 253767123
- future_share_buybacks_assumed_zero
- はい
- old_holder_tenders_assumed_zero
- はい
- initial_value_cohort_oku
- 14442.134679604
- terminal_years_from_cutoff
- 10.001368925
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 73.4
- 株数
- 19675932806
- shares_are_proxy_as_of_cutoff
- はい
- share_class
TWSE_2891_ordinary_common_not_pref_B_C
- initial_ordinary_cohort_market_cap_oku
- 14442.134679604
- old_holder_cohort
all common shares issued on 2026-11-06; registered shares including restricted/employee trusts treated as economic proxy with dividend rights; trust entitlements and exact cutoff share count not independently checked
- 株価の出所
台湾証券取引所2026-11-06日報、普通株2891終値73.40 TWD
- 株数の出所
台湾証券取引所2026-11-06外国人投資可能枠表の普通株19,675,932,806株。配当権を持たない信託等の有無は未確認のため株主コホートの代理値。
検証上の留意点
- 1
53-to-? events are scenario-specific. All net_sum, payout, mcap are in 億 TWD. Verified by separate validator.
- 2
Initial 2026 period covers 55 dates; 2036 ending period covers 311 dates. Exactly 3653 future cash days.
- 3
Monthly 9M income is unaudited; 2026 Oct-Nov profit, OCI, share price denominator at cutoff and all forecasts are estimates.
- 4
Statement cash on parent stand-alone June 30 is only 68.52 oku, while group cash 1,356.13 oku; not interchangeable.
- 5
No declared 2027 or later common dividend as of 2026-11-06; 2027–36 ex/pay/declaration are scenario assumptions, not established rights.
- 6
2026 granted employee shares timing beyond June 12 AGM authorization unknown; assumed zero-cash 2026-12-15 issuance is unconfirmed.
- 7
Cashflow event amount zero retains non-cash restricted grant, capital issue, approvals, ex dates, report review, solvency checks.
- 8
Realized insurer investment FVPL is accounted inside net earnings, not added again. OCI included only in reserve/capital mark.
- 9
Terminal 2037 NI is annual; 2036 311-day income is not treated as full-year perpetuity.
- 10
Larger conservative group/local ratio targets in model are discretionary risk buffers, NOT the actual legal minimum.
- 11
Group capital proxy reflects filters and non-wholly-distributable earnings; local bank and insurer proxies are not Basel CET1 or Taiwan life TIS.
- 12
The exact original paid-in common count as-of Nov 6, employee trust rights and pre-cutoff executed buyback count are NOT separately proven by exchange capital-action ledger.
追加データ・検証記録
分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。