AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.（日月光投資控股）

3711 · TWD · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

ASE：半導体後工程と設備投資の10年評価

10年期待年率0.20%

資本コスト11.50%

直近終値527.00 TWD2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

半導体パッケージ・検査と電子機器受託製造を５ケースで評価。転換社債の会計簿価と基準日の株数は代理値で、将来の転換・償還や株式報酬は予測です。台湾でETFが負担する配当源泉税は未反映です。

要約の補足

valuation_scope

2026-11-06に経済的に1株保有し売却・買戻し応札せず、2036-11-06に残存1株の経済価値を認識する旧株主。会社買戻しの受取は含めない。

starting_price_TWD

527

initial_company_market_cap_proxy_oku_TWD

23267.848368

weighted_10y_holder_terminal_oku

18985.3112772

weighted_timed_holder_payout_oku

4711.7338817

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8975.1960536

weighted_intrinsic_value_per_TWSE_share_TWD

203.281724

price_gap_TWD

-323.718276

price_gap_ratio

-0.614266179

expected_cashflow_IRR

0.001989287

weighted_average_scenario_IRR_reference_only

-0.031816193

weighted_company_2036_terminal_value_oku_not_same_as_old_holder_synthetic

19125.9733279

current_issued_marketcap_including_treasury_oku_reference

23652.247438

risk_recommendation

設備投資先行、高い地政学リスク、AI向け先端後工程の競争優位を同時評価。割安・割高は資本コストとROIICの感応度が大きい。

interpretation

為替・株式報酬・転換価額調整・実行株価は不確実。報告実績ではなく2036年までのモデル条件付き推定。

one_day_boundary_revision_vs_v2

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old_theoretical_value_TWD: 203.231633
revised_theoretical_value_TWD: 203.281724
difference_TWD: 0.050091
same_source_and_scenario_priors: はい
other_methodology_changes: いいえ

結論の補足

ASE 3711普通株2026-11-06終値527 TWDに対し、10年時点別旧株CFと再投資控除後2036年終価の5ケース確率加重理論価値203.28 TWD、乖離-61.43%、期待IRR0.2%。

事業

種類

台湾ASEH連結パッケージング/テストとUSI(環旭)EMS。ASX米国ADSとは同一普通株の預託証券。

company_customer_concentration_q3

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ATM_top5_pct: 0.46
ATM_top10_pct: 0.63
EMS_top5_pct: 0.7
EMS_top10_pct: 0.78

advanced_packaging_definition

2026年Q3のbumping/Flip Chip/WLP/SiP等の開示は先端包装と完全同義でなく、HBM関連・先端の正確な売上額は未公表。モデル内の先端比率は独自代理推定。

technology_drivers

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1: 2.5D/3D異種集積・FC/WLP/SiP
2: HBM関連パッケージ・テストの需要波及
3: 従来Wirebondと車載・産業
4: USI EMS電子機器組立

company_segment_elimination

ASE ATM operations view can include transactions with EMS and must not be simply added; use only consolidated external revenue packaging/testing/EMS/others in Q3 statement (sum=2441.61億TWD).

競争力・事業の質

advantages: 世界的後工程基盤、顧客認証とテスト設備、材料・設計を含むTurnkey、主要地域での生産網。
weaknesses: 顧客集中、設備償却、技術陳腐化、台湾地政学、電力・水・人件費、USD/TWD変動。
sbc: 2026Q1子会社含むSBC費用NT$338.594m (3.38594億TWD)、H1 restricted stock unearned benefits expense NT$338.567mは同一概念の部分表示で別加算しない。予測SBCは営業費用に含んでおり純利益へ戻さない。
acquisition: EugenLight 65.47%を2026年1月取得、少数株主利益はNCIとして控除。現場利益を子会社外部売上に重複計上しない。

業界と環境

cycle

先端需要加速・AI設備投資集中と、従来型封止/EMSの単価・稼働率下振れを分離して予測。

capex

2026Q3設備CAPEX US$2.104bn、2026年9か月キャッシュフロー上の有形固定資産取得NT$249.792bn。顧客設備・土地等の関連費用が多く営業CF>利益でもFCFが弱くなり得る。

competition

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1: Amkor
2: JCET
3: TSMC CoWoS等内製・競合/顧客補完
4: 各種OSAT
5: EMS peers

constraints

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1: 台湾海峡リスク
2: HBM向け半導体サイクル
3: 設備リードタイム
4: 物流・電源・水
5: China/US輸出制限
6: 顧客の内製化・競合設備能力

財務・資本配分

reported_2026_Q3_9months_TWD_oku

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期間末

2026-09-30

released_on

2026-10-29

reporting_basis

unaudited Taiwan-endorsed IFRS

nine_months_revenue

6088.87

nine_months_operating_income

717.65

nine_months_pretax

765.68

nine_months_tax

126.32

nine_months_consolidated_profit

639.36

nine_months_NCI_profit

17.43

nine_months_parent_profit

621.93

nine_months_CFO

1338.63

nine_months_cash_equipment_capex

2497.92

Q3_revenue

2441.61

Q3_operating_income

331.42

Q3_parent_profit

269.96

Q3_nci_profit

8.83

Q3_basic_weighted_average_shares

4403114522

Q3_diluted_weighted_average_shares

4532143664

Q3_EPS_TWD

6.13

Q3_diluted_EPS_TWD

5.84

parent_equity

4228.34

noncontrolling_equity

310.88

total_equity

4539.22

cash

884.21

other_current_financial_assets

195.17

total_reported_interest_bearing_debt

4064.61

sum_visible_interest_bearing_components

3944.03

debt_definition_gap

120.58

reported_debt_visible_breakdown_oku

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short_borrowings: 704.28
current_longterm_debts_bonds_and_loans: 51.41
bonds_payable_noncurrent: 422.01
longterm_bank_and_bills: 2766.33

unidentified_debt_oku

120.58

unidentified_debt_status

Q3 issuer total interest debt includes 120.58 oku more than separately printed summary headings; no verified classification, carried separately inside (not on top of) reported total.

net_debt_before_current_financial_assets

3180.4

net_debt_after_current_financial_assets

2985.23

balance_sheet_total_assets

12447.85

balance_sheet_total_liabilities

7908.63

parent_profit_after_SBC

はい

noncontrolling_interests_already_excluded_from_parent_profit

はい

reported_q3_segments_external_TWD_oku

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packaging: 1221.73
testing: 263.02
ems: 929.97
others: 26.89
consolidated: 2441.61

reported_9m_segments_external_TWD_oku

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packaging: 3105.41
testing: 710.08
ems: 2197.69
others: 75.69
consolidated: 6088.87

reported_H1_treasury_and_SBC

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treasury_subsidiary_shares_2026_06_30: 72941000
accounting_treasury_cost_TWD_oku: 19.59107
subsidiary_treasury_market_fair_value_2026_06_30_TWD_oku: 496.00224
forfeitable_unearned_benefits_SBC_expense_6months_TWD_oku: 3.38567
complete_consolidated_H1_SBC_expense_TWD_oku: 未確認
comment: H1の非稼得報酬評価はSBC総額全体とは限らずQ1のSBCに機械的加算しない。

bond_2026_details

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parent_cb_ISIN

XS3462009369

USD_face

1000000000

fixed_conversion_fx_USD_TWD

32.388

conversion_price_initial_TWD

927.2

bond_maturity

2031-08-10

conversion_period_start

2026-11-11

conversion_period_last_date

2031-07-31

model_conversion_date_conditional

2031-07-24

model_cash_redemption_settlement_assumed

2031-08-11

early_put_date

2029-08-10

zero_coupon

はい

principal_at_contract_fx_TWD_oku

323.88

initial_converted_new_shares_if_all

34930975

2031_adjusted_conversion_shares

scenario bond_events.derived from cumulative forecast cash dividends, 1pct deferred threshold and proxy 30-day market value

Q3_bonds_payable_total_TWD_oku

422.01

June_domestic_bonds_carrying_proxy_TWD_oku

149.85

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_proxy_oku

272.16

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_low_high_proxy_oku

1: 220
2: 315

unconfirmed_conversion_option_in_2026_09_30_equity_oku

未確認

unconfirmed_embedded_derivative_or_equity_split

未確認

do_not_recredit_initial_conversion_option

はい

cash_dividend_conversion_price_formula

NCP=OCP*(M-C)/M (M contractual market value before ex-date; C cash per share), cumulative 1pct threshold and carry-forward

cash_redemption_currency_linked_formula

Settlement Equivalent USD=USD principal*(32.3880 / Prevailing Rate on rate calculation date), 5 business days before payment. TWD economic equivalent=USD principal*32.3880

early_redemption_legal_notes

Holder put 2029-08-10; delisting, change of control protections; company cleanup call if over 90% redeemed/converted; conversion closed periods and notices restrict actual feasible dates

parent_cb_exact_Sept_book_oku

未確認

no_double_count

USD face is contractual repayment nominal, not additional loan draw after base date. Debt book carry already in total debt; no double face liability. CB option capital allocation already included in 9/30 owner equity, not added again on redemption. At conversion remaining liability only moves into ordinary equity.

old_USI_RMB_convertible

2026-01にUSISHのRMB債は転換・残額償還。親会社3711株式と誤認しない。転換によるUSI子会社株主比率/NCIに反映済みの9/30報告残高を出発点とする。

q3_cb_book_value_sensitivity_recomputed_all_ledgers

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as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

220

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

202.943841

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001871163

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8960.27802

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

-0.337883

by_scenario

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bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.0476483
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 322.826569
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.5661843
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3240225
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029262

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.0471759
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8214761
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0585239

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.4276007
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 9.8866028
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

272.16

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.281724

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001989287

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8975.1960536

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

by_scenario

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bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.4003554
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3555155
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.9306937
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.6031887
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.014569

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.4140221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.850862
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029138

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.7114221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.0850934
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

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as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

315

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.559241

weighted_expected_IRR

0.002086307

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8987.4488731

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

0.277517

by_scenario

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bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.6901013
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.7899493
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 279.2300756
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8324732
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0025014

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.7153199
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8749972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0050028

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.94453
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.2481174
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

book_sensitivity_method

Full rerun 55 periods per case; scenario starting reported total interest debt and parent equity held constant. Alternative CB book allocations are offset inside other identified debt, never added to 4064.61. 2031 conversion transfers only modeled liability book, while any initial option/embedded derivative valuation is not independently verified.

sensitivity_limitation

This is only an accounting allocation sensitivity, NOT independently inferred market option fair value nor a verified 2026 Q3 note classification.

calendar_maturity_weekend_status

Contractual 2031-08-10 is a Sunday; 2031-08-11 is model cash-settlement business day assumption, not an issuer settlement notice.

interest_bearing_debt_reconciliation

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日付: 2026-09-30
reported_total_oku: 4064.61
visible_sum_oku: 3944.03
unidentified_inside_total_oku: 120.58
計算式: 704.28+51.41+422.01+2766.33+120.58=4064.61
double_count_control: The 120.58 is part of 4064.61, not an extra addition; carried unclassified every year inside balance sheet total debt.

post_q3_2026_initial_bridge

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2026_Q4_revenue_model_oku

2400

Q4_parent_profit_model_oku

210

Q4_parent_SBC_equity_credit_model_oku

3.5

Q4_CFO_model_oku

650

Q4_equipment_capex_model_oku

700

Q4_bank_debt_net_draw_model_oku

Q4_day_count

2026_10_01_to_2026_11_06_inclusive_days

2026_11_07_to_2026_12_31_inclusive_days

base_date_equity_proxy_oku

4314.2041304

base_date_cash_proxy_oku

884.21

base_date_debt_proxy_oku

4085.7968027

base_date_nci_proxy_oku

314.378913

base_date_book_not_verified

はい

actual_post_Sept_capital_transactions

未確認

q4_2026_day_bridge

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q4_full_days

q3_end

2026-09-30

pre_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-10-01
2: 2026-11-06

pre_valuation_days

post_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-11-07
2: 2026-12-31

post_valuation_days

sum_days

base_date_2026_11_06_eod

はい

net_2026_Q4_profit_and_stock_comp_expense

Q4の利益は報告IFRS利益を模した予測。親会社SBC資本繰入額は2026Q4予測として純利益とは別に簿価へ加算。

model_clean_surplus_policy

E_end=E_begin+ordinary_parent_net_after_SBC+SBC_parent_equity_credit+cash_employee_options+parent_OCI+CB_REMAINING_LIABILITY_BOOK_ONLY_to_share_capital−company_cash_dividends−issuer_buybacks. No second credit of option initial equity. Restricted new shares dilute pre-terminal denominator; terminal explicitly assumes cash-buyback to hold share count flat after 2036.

model_cash_policy

cash_end=cash_begin + CFO−capex−issuer_dividends−issuer_buybacks+paid_options−NCI_dividends−currency_linked_CB_TWD_economic_redemption+CB_refinance+ordinary_bank_net_draw. Reported debt includes unidentified 120.58 oku bucket, not added externally. Subsidiary share awards credit NCI.

convertible_forecast_key_method

2029 put optional; 2031 conversion MUST occur no later than July31, modeled July24, remaining maturity Aug10 (cash model following business day Aug11). Forecast dividends adjust conversion price by prospectus anti-dilution and cumulative 1pct threshold using model M. Fixed FX32.388 for shares and USD redemption Settlement Equivalent; future spot is estimated, not CBC rate. Contract option capital not added at conversion.

FX_reference_date

2026-11-06

USD_TWD_CBC

32.768

tax_policy

全CFは台湾普通株主段階の源泉税前。ETF EWT実効控除率、米国・日本投資家税は未確認のため控除しない。

dividend_calendar_history

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2026_declared_pre_base_dividend: 6.6
2026_ex_dividend_observed_secondary: 2026-07-03
2026_payment_date_observed_secondary: 2026-07-31
excluded_after_2026_11_06: はい
2027_and_later_declared_as_of_base: いいえ

terminal_sbc_economic_sensitivity

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key: bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 46674.6385259
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 46642.9556944
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4443359935
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4476659935
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 46537.8632832
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15626.5633755
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15615.9560352
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.240249
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -1.037157
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: base
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 16079.1423285
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 16067.4914629
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 16040.6092671
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5369.9656948
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5366.0746447
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.088129
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.291472
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 4933.7037009
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 4930.0285165
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 4923.1761417
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1647.7134838
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1646.4860791
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.0278
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.079633
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 282.6191504
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 282.4051328
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 282.0655069
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3865731
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3150974
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.001619
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.004188
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

terminal_perpetuity_policy

Share-neutral terminal uses fixed 1.5m restricted shares + 2.2m paid-option shares per year after 2036 (forecast, no factual issuance promise); 2037 purchase at fundamental TV-based price and thereafter same growth as sustainable income. Free awards are expensed as SBC already; only parent SBC noncash part is added back once, then market purchase and paid exercise proceeds netted once. No-buyback sensitivity has actual growing share denominator and NO cash replacement purchase expense.

評価の前提と確認

twse_official_price: 527
株価基準日: 2026-11-06
volume_twse: 43145321
reference_issued_shares: 4488092493
proxy_economic_shares: 4415151493
market_cap_proxy_oku: 23267.848368
weighted_issuer_terminal_oku_separate: 19125.9733279
weighted_old_holder_terminal_oku: 18985.3112772
weighted_old_holder_payout_oku: 4711.7338817
weighted_old_holder_pv_oku: 8975.1960536
theoretical_value_per_share_TWD: 203.281724
gap_pct: -61.426618
discount_k: 0.115
weighted_expected_holder_xirr: 0.001989287
year_count_actual_36525: 10.001368925394
days_exact: 3653
market_multiple_used: いいえ
10y_economic_reference: old non-selling one share, synthetic rescaled by starting proxy denominator; terminal not in timed_cashflows
ADS_not_doubled: はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.50%

事業の質

0.74

事業の質の内訳

内容を開く

AI_advanced_packaging: 0.9
testing_knowhow: 0.83
EMS_diversification: 0.6
balance_sheet_and_capex: 0.6
geopolitical_exposure: 0.55

事業の質の根拠

設計・材料・顧客承認に参入障壁がありAI向け先端実装の成長は高い。一方TWD建て主上場株主の要求収益率は台湾海峡・輸出規制、集中顧客、米ドル建て大型投資、循環性を考慮した独自仮定11.5%。

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

シナリオ	確率	株主還元・追加負担	終価
AI高度実装・検査フル稼働	12.0%	7,504.89	46,416.98
先端後工程普及と設備収益化	23.0%	6,223.83	26,670.91
AI投資成長の平準化とEMS安定	40.0%	5,045.88	15,950.89
設備過剰・回復遅延	18.0%	1,816.98	4,894.35
半導体・地政学ショック	7.0%	489.43	280.36

AI高度実装・検査フル稼働（確率 12.0%）

AI/HPC・HBM関連の高密度後工程が高成長。CAPEX初期集中後に利益率が改善。2026年発行転換社債を2031年に100%転換する仮定。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

先端後工程普及と設備収益化（確率 23.0%）

先端パッケージ、テストの拡大。転換社債は2031年に半額転換・残額借換えとする条件付き仮定。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

事業別の前提

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 3.5477958
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 6940.684805
営業利益: 1908.688321
営業利益率: 27.50%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 8168.137102

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.10462213
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1927.092085
営業利益: 250.521971
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2267.896151

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 2.83942099
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2364.670418
営業利益: 673.931069
営業利益率: 28.50%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2782.85972

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.70814446
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4423.588191
営業利益: 207.908645
営業利益率: 4.70%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 5205.894784

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.28008454
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 114.96135
営業利益: 2.874034
営業利益率: 2.50%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 135.292135

日付別キャッシュフロー

内容を開く

year: 0.5694729637
想定日: 2027-06-02
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 0.6516084873
想定日: 2027-07-02
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

内容を開く

year: 0.7282683094
想定日: 2027-07-30
金額: 382.6878
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 8.667602926
issuer_dividend_oku: 382.6878
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4415151493
assumed_ex_date: 2027-07-02
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

内容を開く

year: 0.8569472964
想定日: 2027-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4415151493
after_economic_shares: 4414017431
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 0.93908282
想定日: 2027-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4414017431
after_economic_shares: 4416217431
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 1.106091718
想定日: 2027-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4416217431
after_economic_shares: 4417717431
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 1.5852156057
想定日: 2028-06-07
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 1.6673511294
想定日: 2028-07-07
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

内容を開く

year: 1.7248459959
想定日: 2028-07-28
金額: 388.372841713
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 8.796365025
issuer_dividend_oku: 388.59855099
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4417717431
assumed_ex_date: 2028-07-07
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

内容を開く

year: 1.8590006845
想定日: 2028-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4417717431
after_economic_shares: 4416493972
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 1.9411362081
想定日: 2028-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4416493972
after_economic_shares: 4418693972
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 2.1081451061
想定日: 2028-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4418693972
after_economic_shares: 4420193972
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 2.5817932923
想定日: 2029-06-06
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 2.6639288159
想定日: 2029-07-06
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

内容を開く

year: 2.7214236824
想定日: 2029-07-27
金額: 430.477995046
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 9.750016409
issuer_dividend_oku: 430.96963758
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4420193972
assumed_ex_date: 2029-07-06
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

内容を開く

year: 2.8583162218
想定日: 2029-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4420193972
after_economic_shares: 4418862358
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 2.9404517454
想定日: 2029-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4418862358
after_economic_shares: 4421062358
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 3.1074606434
想定日: 2029-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4421062358
after_economic_shares: 4422562358
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 3.5783709788
想定日: 2030-06-05
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 3.6605065024
想定日: 2030-07-05
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

内容を開く

year: 3.7180013689
想定日: 2030-07-26
金額: 481.393706112
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 10.903220577
issuer_dividend_oku: 482.20172907
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4422562358
assumed_ex_date: 2030-07-05
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

内容を開く

year: 3.8576317591
想定日: 2030-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4422562358
after_economic_shares: 4421103017
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 3.9397672827
想定日: 2030-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4421103017
after_economic_shares: 4423303017
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 4.1067761807
想定日: 2030-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4423303017
after_economic_shares: 4424803017
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 4.5749486653
想定日: 2031-06-04
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 4.6570841889
想定日: 2031-07-04
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

内容を開く

year: 4.7118412047
想定日: 2031-07-24
金額: 0
種類: parent_CB_conversion_within_legal_period_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4424803017
after_economic_shares: 4443520293
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 2031年7月31日の契約終了日前で、予測閉鎖期間外の仮定。SBCとは別。convert_frac=0.5。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 4.7145790554
想定日: 2031-07-25
金額: 542.065874028
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 12.277401464
issuer_dividend_oku: 543.25083038
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4424803017
assumed_ex_date: 2031-07-04
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

内容を開く

year: 4.7611225188
想定日: 2031-08-11
金額: 0
種類: currency_linked_CB_redemption_to_bondholders_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4443520293
after_economic_shares: 4443520293
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 社債保有者へのUSD決済であり旧株主現金0。32.388固定TWD元本換算、将来prevailingFXを使用。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 4.8569472964
想定日: 2031-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4424803017
after_economic_shares: 4423220908
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 4.93908282
想定日: 2031-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4441938184
after_economic_shares: 4444138184
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 5.106091718
想定日: 2031-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4444138184
after_economic_shares: 4445638184
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 5.5715263518
想定日: 2032-06-02
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 5.6536618754
想定日: 2032-07-02
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

内容を開く

year: 5.7303216975
想定日: 2032-07-30
金額: 601.29074446
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 13.618802105
issuer_dividend_oku: 605.44266658
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4445638184
assumed_ex_date: 2032-07-02
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

内容を開く

year: 5.8590006845
想定日: 2032-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4445638184
after_economic_shares: 4443884203
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 5.9411362081
想定日: 2032-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4443884203
after_economic_shares: 4446084203
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 6.1081451061
想定日: 2032-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4446084203
after_economic_shares: 4447584203
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

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year: 6.5681040383
想定日: 2033-06-01
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

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year: 6.6502395619
想定日: 2033-07-01
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

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year: 6.726899384
想定日: 2033-07-29
金額: 684.977270889
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 15.514241629
issuer_dividend_oku: 690.00895988
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4447584203
assumed_ex_date: 2033-07-01
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

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year: 6.8583162218
想定日: 2033-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4447584203
after_economic_shares: 4445633486
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 6.9404517454
想定日: 2033-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4445633486
after_economic_shares: 4447833486
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 7.1074606434
想定日: 2033-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4447833486
after_economic_shares: 4449333486
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 7.5838466804
想定日: 2034-06-07
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

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year: 7.665982204
想定日: 2034-07-07
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

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year: 7.7234770705
想定日: 2034-07-28
金額: 782.83084032
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 17.730554468
issuer_dividend_oku: 788.89149721
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4449333486
assumed_ex_date: 2034-07-07
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

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year: 7.8576317591
想定日: 2034-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4449333486
after_economic_shares: 4447156742
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

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year: 7.9397672827
想定日: 2034-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4447156742
after_economic_shares: 4449356742
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 8.1067761807
想定日: 2034-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4449356742
after_economic_shares: 4450856742
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 8.5804243669
想定日: 2035-06-06
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

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year: 8.6625598905
想定日: 2035-07-06
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

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year: 8.720054757
想定日: 2035-07-27
金額: 897.687877987
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 20.331983612
issuer_dividend_oku: 904.94746336
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4450856742
assumed_ex_date: 2035-07-06
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

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year: 8.8569472964
想定日: 2035-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4450856742
after_economic_shares: 4448421685
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 8.93908282
想定日: 2035-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4448421685
after_economic_shares: 4450621685
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 9.106091718
想定日: 2035-12-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_restricted_new_shares_delivered_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4450621685
after_economic_shares: 4452121685
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: SBC費用は親会社利益控除済。従業員への無償新株と資本繰入れを別に追跡。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 9.5770020534
想定日: 2036-06-04
金額: 0
種類: recheck_future_ex_date_and_dividend_resolution
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 権利落ち予定日・配当決議・信託株数・転換価額調整・ETF税務を再確認。現金0。

内容を開く

year: 9.659137577
想定日: 2036-07-04
金額: 0
種類: forecast_ex_dividend_entitlement_only
scenario: mild_bull
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: この日は現金受取日でない。CBの転換価額を将来決議と市場値により確認。

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year: 9.7166324435
想定日: 2036-07-25
金額: 1032.041056317
種類: cash_dividend_old_nonselling_one_share_scaled_to_initial_proxy
scenario: mild_bull
amount_per_original_share_TWD: 23.374986293
issuer_dividend_oku: 1040.68283363
eligible_economic_shares_proxy: 4452121685
assumed_ex_date: 2036-07-04
date_status: forecast_not_declared
tax_basis: pre_withholding_tax

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year: 9.8590006845
想定日: 2036-09-15
金額: 0
種類: buyback_from_other_shareholders_non_tendering_holder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4452121685
after_economic_shares: 4449802762
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 非売却旧株主は現金0。発行会社買戻しにより流通株数が減少。
scenario: mild_bull

内容を開く

year: 9.9411362081
想定日: 2036-10-15
金額: 0
種類: employee_paid_option_exercise_nonholder_cash_zero
cash_status: non_cash_holder_event
before_economic_shares: 4449802762
after_economic_shares: 4452002762
date_status: forecast_assumption
notes: 従業員払込は会社への現金流入。旧普通株主の現金支出ではない。
scenario: mild_bull

その他の数値・前提

scenario_driver_assumptions

内容を開く

2026_fy_start_revenues_by_segment_oku

内容を開く

packaging_advanced: 2302.3132
packaging_legacy: 2053.0968
testing: 980.08
ems: 3047.69
others: 105.69

annual_price_volume_growth_indices

内容を開く

packaging_advanced: 0.135
packaging_legacy: 0.01
testing: 0.11
ems: 0.055
others: 0.025

2036_margins

内容を開く

packaging_advanced: 0.275
packaging_legacy: 0.13
testing: 0.285
ems: 0.047
others: 0.025

payout_of_previous_fiscal_year_profit

0.46

cash_buyback_pct_of_current_parent_net

0.008

税率

18.50%

nci_fraction_initial

0.026

nci_fraction_drift_per_year

0.00045

capex_to_revenue_2027

0.285

capex_to_revenue_2036

0.135

perpetuity_growth

0.035

equity_incremental_reinvestment_return

0.185

cb_scenario

convert_2031

cb_conversion_fraction

0.5

adjust_oku

-106.215847

売上高

15770.996849

営業利益

2937.708193

純利益

2214.781008

equity_oku

13456.6525942

期間内の親会社利益合計（億）

15112.050939

multiple

kind: post_SBC_reported_ordinary_profit_reinvestment_AND_share_neutralisation_justified_multiple
値: 10.52302408
why: 市場PER/PBRは不使用。2037年SBC親会社非現金加算額・有償オプション払込を1回だけFCFEに戻し、交付370万株の時価市場買付現金を差引。株式数中立ゆえ旧持分を追加希薄化せず、連続成長g=0.035, 資本コストk=0.115, 増分投資ROIC=0.185。

キャッシュフローの算出方法

timed_holder_cashflows_v1

holder_policy

non_tendering_original_one_share; buybacks are equity/shares changes and not old-holder cash

期間内株主受取

6223.8260069

終価

26670.9107175

terminal_event_review

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日付

2036-11-06

year

10.001368925394

amount_oku

26670.9107175

company_ordinary_terminal_value_oku

26893.5207247

terminal_economic_shares

4452002762

holder_fraction

2.24618E-10

synthetic_reference_initial_shares

4415151493

valuation_mechanics

TTM earnings inclusive to 2036-11-06; forward (1+g); reinvestment cost g/ROIIC; discount 10.00137 ACT/365.25

present_in_timed_cashflows

いいえ

no_double_count

はい

share_neutral_steady_state

内容を開く

projection_year: 2037
shares_at_terminal: 4452002762
2037_fully_paid_option_shares: 2200000
2037_restricted_free_delivery_new_shares: 1500000
2037_open_market_buyback_shares_to_neutralise: 3700000
share_net_change_after_neutralisation: 0
assumed_2037_exercise_cash_per_share_TWD: 228.042416
2037_paid_option_proceeds_oku: 5.0169331
2037_SBC_parent_non_cash_credit_addback_oku: 24.8957488
2037_income_after_SBC_parent_oku: 2645.1325916
2037_required_growth_reinvestment_oku: 500.4304903
2037_stock_price_model_valuation_date_TWD: 604.0769102
2037_open_market_buyback_price_TWD: 625.219602
2037_shares_neutralisation_cash_spending_oku: 23.1331253
2037_sustainable_old_shareholder_cashflow_oku: 2151.481658
2037_pretax_NCI_effect_not_parent_addback: Only parent SBC share-credit .72 of assumed group expense added back; subsidiary equity-credit .28 remains in NCI.
terminal_value_check_oku: 26893.5207247
cash_flow_equation: NI_after_SBC*(1+g) - NI_after_SBC*(1+g)*g/ROIIC + parent_SBC_cash_addback + option_proceeds - shares_issued*market_price
terminal_implicit_equation: TV=[NI_afterSBC_next*(1-g/ROIIC)+SBCcredit_parent_next+paid_option_cash_next]/[(k-g)+(3.7m/shares_at_end)*(1+g)]
2037_purchase_price_status: model_fair_value, not actual market price

terminal_employee_delivery_sensitivities

内容を開く

market_buyback_fair_value_1x_terminal_oku: 26893.5207247
no_company_buyback_per_share_dilution_equivalent_aggregate_oku: 26893.5207247
fair_value_buyback_premium_1_25x_terminal_oku: 26822.1884306
fair_value_buyback_discount_0_75x_terminal_oku: 26965.2334399
assumption: Alternative policies cannot simultaneously impose dilution and replacement cash cost; no buyback equals per-share dilution under frictionless equivalent issuance fair-value, assuming consistent cash earnings.
key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

年度別・部分期間の財務台帳

内容を開く

period_id: stub_2026_11_07_to_2026_12_31
対象年度: 2026
date_start: 2026-11-07
date_end_inclusive: 2026-12-31
date_end_exclusive: 2027-01-01
days: 55
calendar_period_type: initial_stub
from_company_publication: 2026-09-30 Q3/9M issuer results: Sept30 equity/debt/cash, post-Sept30 entirely estimated
is_actual: いいえ
fraction_of_q4_2026: 0.597826087
売上高: 1434.7826086957
営業利益: 188.3152173913
純利益: 125.54347826087
sbc_expense_oku: 2.929347826087
parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku: 2.0923913043478
subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku: 0.41847826086957
parent_oci_oku: 0
nci_oci_oku: 0
nci_profit_oku: 4.7826086956522
nci_dividend_oku: 0
dividends_issuer_oku: 0
ordinary_buybacks_cash_oku: 0
cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku: 0
employee_option_shares_issued: 0
employee_restricted_shares_issued: 0
cb_conversion_shares_issued: 0
cb_accretion_expense_oku: 1.6025915492958
cb_cash_redemption_oku: 0
cb_non_cash_equity_reclassification_oku: 0
cfo_oku: 388.58695652174
capex_oku: 418.47826086957
net_bank_borrowing_oku: 29.891304347826
buyback_shares_retired: 0
equity_begin_oku: 4314.2041304348
cash_begin_oku: 884.21
debt_begin_oku: 4085.7968026944
nci_begin_oku: 314.37891304348
economic_shares_begin: 4415151493
unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku: 120.58
equity_end_oku: 4441.84
cash_end_oku: 884.21
debt_end_oku: 4117.2906985915
nci_end_oku: 319.58
economic_shares_end: 4415151493
convertible_liability_end_oku: 274.84069859155
unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku: 120.58
identified_noncb_debt_end_oku: 3721.87
parent_sbc_share_awards_received_from_options_cash_oku: 0

内容を開く

period_id

2027_calendar_fy

対象年度

2027

date_start

2027-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2027-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2028-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 1.135
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2613.125482
営業利益: 589.259796
営業利益率: 22.55%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2613.125482

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.01
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2073.627768
営業利益: 269.57161
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2073.627768

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 1.11
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1087.8888
営業利益: 256.197812
営業利益率: 23.55%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 1087.8888

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.055
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3215.31295
営業利益: 101.925421
営業利益率: 3.17%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3215.31295

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.025
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 108.33225
営業利益: 1.245821
営業利益率: 1.15%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 108.33225

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-102.5

売上高

9098.28725

営業利益

1115.70046

sbc_expense_oku

16.376917

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

63.60216

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

10.63538

other_nonoperating_oku

22.745718

pretax_oku

1064.208638

tax_oku

196.878598

consolidated_profit_oku

867.33004

nci_profit_oku

22.550581

純利益

844.779459

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2593.011866

depreciation_amortisation_oku

840

working_capital_outflow_oku

27.423776

cfo_oku

1706.918561

nci_dividends_oku

9.020232

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

11.79138

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

4.585537

parent_oci_oku

1.689559

nci_oci_oku

0.027061

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

382.6878

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

8.667602926

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2027-07-02

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2027-07-30

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

6.758234

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1134062

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.4528

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

914.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

384.993234

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

382.6878

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

4441.84

equity_end_oku

4915.107164

nci_begin_oku

319.58

nci_end_oku

337.7229461

cash_begin_oku

884.21

cash_end_oku

700

debt_begin_oku

4117.2906986

debt_end_oku

5223.8228506

cb_liability_begin_oku

274.8406986

cb_liability_end_oku

285.4760789

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

4817.7667717

net_bank_borrowing_oku

1095.8967717

net_debt_end_oku

4523.8228506

economic_shares_begin

4415151493

economic_shares_end

4417717431

issued_shares_begin

4488092493

issued_shares_end

4490658431

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.264928E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.263612E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2028_calendar_fy

対象年度

2028

date_start

2028-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2028-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2029-01-01

days

366

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 1.288225
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2965.897422
営業利益: 685.122304
営業利益率: 23.10%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2965.897422

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.0201
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2094.364046
営業利益: 272.267326
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2094.364046

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 1.2321
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1207.556568
営業利益: 291.021133
営業利益率: 24.10%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 1207.556568

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.113025
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3392.155162
営業利益: 113.297982
営業利益率: 3.34%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3392.155162

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.050625
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 111.040556
営業利益: 1.443527
営業利益率: 1.30%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 111.040556

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-105

売上高

9771.013754

営業利益

1258.152273

sbc_expense_oku

17.587825

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

91.124456

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

10.664518

other_nonoperating_oku

24.427534

pretax_oku

1180.790833

tax_oku

218.446304

consolidated_profit_oku

962.344529

nci_profit_oku

25.454013

純利益

936.890516

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2621.888691

depreciation_amortisation_oku

945

working_capital_outflow_oku

30.272693

cfo_oku

1905.32418

nci_dividends_oku

10.181605

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

12.663234

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

4.924591

parent_oci_oku

1.873781

nci_oci_oku

0.030545

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

388.598551

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

8.796365025

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2028-07-07

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2028-07-28

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

7.495126

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1223459

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.506234

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

902.18

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

391.587444

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

388.37284171

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

4915.107164

equity_end_oku

5474.9472518

nci_begin_oku

337.7229461

nci_end_oku

357.9504895

cash_begin_oku

700

cash_end_oku

700

debt_begin_oku

5223.8228506

debt_end_oku

6352.8209287

cb_liability_begin_oku

285.4760789

cb_liability_end_oku

296.1405972

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

5936.1003315

net_bank_borrowing_oku

1118.3335598

net_debt_end_oku

5652.8209287

economic_shares_begin

4417717431

economic_shares_end

4420193972

issued_shares_begin

4490658431

issued_shares_end

4493134972

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.263612E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.262344E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2029_calendar_fy

対象年度

2029

date_start

2029-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2029-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2030-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 1.46213538
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3366.293574
営業利益: 796.12843
営業利益率: 23.65%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3366.293574

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.030301
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2115.307686
営業利益: 274.989999
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2115.307686

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 1.367631
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1340.38779
営業利益: 330.40559
営業利益率: 24.65%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 1340.38779

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.17424137
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3578.723696
営業利益: 125.613202
営業利益率: 3.51%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3578.723696

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.07689062
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 113.81657
営業利益: 1.65034
営業利益率: 1.45%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 113.81657

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-107.5

売上高

10514.529317

営業利益

1421.287562

sbc_expense_oku

18.926153

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

115.168627

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

10.63538

other_nonoperating_oku

26.286323

pretax_oku

1321.769878

tax_oku

244.527427

consolidated_profit_oku

1077.24245

nci_profit_oku

28.977822

純利益

1048.264628

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2646.156545

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1050

working_capital_outflow_oku

33.4582

cfo_oku

2123.345783

nci_dividends_oku

11.591129

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

13.62683

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

5.299323

parent_oci_oku

2.096529

nci_oci_oku

0.034773

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

430.969638

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

9.750016409

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2029-07-06

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2029-07-27

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

8.386119

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1331614

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.560308

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

890.08

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

434.795448

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

430.47799505

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

5474.9472518

equity_end_oku

6104.1397917

nci_begin_oku

357.9504895

nci_end_oku

380.6712788

cash_begin_oku

700

cash_end_oku

736.0170522

debt_begin_oku

6352.8209287

debt_end_oku

7368.6706993

cb_liability_begin_oku

296.1405972

cb_liability_end_oku

306.7759775

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

6941.3147219

net_bank_borrowing_oku

1005.2143904

net_debt_end_oku

6632.6536472

economic_shares_begin

4420193972

economic_shares_end

4422562358

issued_shares_begin

4493134972

issued_shares_end

4495503358

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.262344E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.261133E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2030_calendar_fy

対象年度

2030

date_start

2030-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2030-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2031-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 1.65952365
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3820.743207
営業利益: 924.619856
営業利益率: 24.20%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3820.743207

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.04060401
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2136.460763
営業利益: 277.739899
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2136.460763

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 1.51807041
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1487.830447
営業利益: 374.933273
営業利益率: 25.20%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 1487.830447

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.23882465
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3775.553499
営業利益: 138.940369
営業利益率: 3.68%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3775.553499

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.10381289
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 116.661984
営業利益: 1.866592
営業利益率: 1.60%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 116.661984

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-110

売上高

11337.249901

営業利益

1608.099988

sbc_expense_oku

20.40705

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

136.00637

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

10.63538

other_nonoperating_oku

28.343125

pretax_oku

1489.801363

tax_oku

275.613252

consolidated_profit_oku

1214.188111

nci_profit_oku

33.208045

純利益

1180.980066

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2664.253727

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1155

working_capital_outflow_oku

37.022426

cfo_oku

2363.208115

nci_dividends_oku

13.283218

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

14.693076

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

5.713974

parent_oci_oku

2.36196

nci_oci_oku

0.03985

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

482.201729

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

10.903220577

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2030-07-05

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2030-07-26

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

9.44784

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1459341

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.615032

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

877.78

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

487.034537

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

481.39370611

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

6104.1397917

equity_end_oku

6815.1403565

nci_begin_oku

380.6712788

nci_end_oku

406.3499293

cash_begin_oku

736.0170522

cash_end_oku

793.6074931

debt_begin_oku

7368.6706993

debt_end_oku

8238.2598877

cb_liability_begin_oku

306.7759775

cb_liability_end_oku

317.4113577

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

7800.2685299

net_bank_borrowing_oku

858.9538081

net_debt_end_oku

7444.6523946

economic_shares_begin

4422562358

economic_shares_end

4424803017

issued_shares_begin

4495503358

issued_shares_end

4497744017

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.261133E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.259988E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2031_calendar_fy

対象年度

2031

date_start

2031-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2031-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2032-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 1.88355934
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4336.543539
営業利益: 1073.294526
営業利益率: 24.75%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 4336.543539

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.05101005
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2157.825371
営業利益: 280.517298
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2157.825371

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 1.68505816
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1651.491797
営業利益: 425.259138
営業利益率: 25.75%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 1651.491797

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.30696001
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3983.208942
営業利益: 153.353544
営業利益率: 3.85%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 3983.208942

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.13140821
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 119.578534
営業利益: 2.092624
営業利益率: 1.75%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 119.578534

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-112.5

売上高

12248.648183

営業利益

1822.01713

sbc_expense_oku

22.047567

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

185.308267

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

6.191831

other_nonoperating_oku

30.62162

pretax_oku

1661.124084

tax_oku

307.307956

consolidated_profit_oku

1353.816128

nci_profit_oku

37.636418

純利益

1316.17971

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2674.288187

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1260

working_capital_outflow_oku

41.012923

cfo_oku

2601.057172

nci_dividends_oku

15.054567

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

15.874248

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

6.173319

parent_oci_oku

2.632359

nci_oci_oku

0.045164

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

543.25083

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

12.277401464

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2031-07-04

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2031-07-25

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

10.52944

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1582109

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.670412

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

18717276

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

161.677758

cb_redemption_cash_oku

161.94

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

161.94

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

0.014569

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

865.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

2031-07-24

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

2031-08-11

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

31.5

net_issuer_returns_oku

549.109858

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

542.06587403

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

6815.1403565

equity_end_oku

7762.3945738

nci_begin_oku

406.3499293

nci_end_oku

435.1502628

cash_begin_oku

793.6074931

cash_end_oku

857.4053728

debt_begin_oku

8238.2598877

debt_end_oku

8783.981849

cb_liability_begin_oku

317.4113577

cb_liability_end_oku

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

8663.401849

net_bank_borrowing_oku

701.1933191

net_debt_end_oku

7926.5764763

economic_shares_begin

4424803017

economic_shares_end

4445638184

issued_shares_begin

4497744017

issued_shares_end

4518579184

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.259988E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.249396E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2032_calendar_fy

対象年度

2032

date_start

2032-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2032-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2033-01-01

days

366

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 2.13783985
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4921.976917
営業利益: 1245.26016
営業利益率: 25.30%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 4921.976917

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.06152015
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2179.403624
営業利益: 283.322471
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2179.403624

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 1.87041455
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1833.155894
営業利益: 482.12
営業利益率: 26.30%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 1833.155894

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.37884281
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4202.285434
営業利益: 168.931874
営業利益率: 4.02%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 4202.285434

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.15969342
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 122.567997
営業利益: 2.328792
営業利益率: 1.90%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 122.567997

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-115

売上高

13259.389867

営業利益

2066.963298

sbc_expense_oku

23.866902

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

206.090988

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

other_nonoperating_oku

33.148475

pretax_oku

1894.020784

tax_oku

350.393845

consolidated_profit_oku

1543.626939

nci_profit_oku

43.607461

純利益

1500.019478

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2673.976957

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1365

working_capital_outflow_oku

45.483376

cfo_oku

2887.010465

nci_dividends_oku

17.442984

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

17.184169

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

6.682732

parent_oci_oku

3.000039

nci_oci_oku

0.052329

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

605.442667

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

13.618802105

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2032-07-02

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2032-07-30

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

12.000155

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1753981

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.726457

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

865.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

612.716365

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

601.29074446

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

7762.3945738

equity_end_oku

8669.8818954

nci_begin_oku

435.1502628

nci_end_oku

468.0498009

cash_begin_oku

857.4053728

cash_end_oku

928.1572907

debt_begin_oku

8783.981849

debt_end_oku

9271.8596075

cb_liability_begin_oku

cb_liability_end_oku

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

9151.2796075

net_bank_borrowing_oku

487.8777584

net_debt_end_oku

8343.7023168

economic_shares_begin

4445638184

economic_shares_end

4447584203

issued_shares_begin

4518579184

issued_shares_end

4520525203

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.249396E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.248412E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2033_calendar_fy

対象年度

2033

date_start

2033-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2033-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2034-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 2.42644824
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 5586.443801
営業利益: 1444.095723
営業利益率: 25.85%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 5586.443801

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.07213535
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2201.197661
営業利益: 286.155696
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2201.197661

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 2.07616015
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2034.803043
営業利益: 546.344617
営業利益率: 26.85%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2034.803043

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.45467916
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4433.411133
営業利益: 185.759926
営業利益率: 4.19%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 4433.411133

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.18868575
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 125.632197
営業利益: 2.57546
営業利益率: 2.05%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 125.632197

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-117.5

売上高

14381.487834

営業利益

2347.431422

sbc_expense_oku

25.886678

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

216.93626

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

other_nonoperating_oku

35.95372

pretax_oku

2166.448881

tax_oku

400.793043

consolidated_profit_oku

1765.655838

nci_profit_oku

50.674323

純利益

1714.981516

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2660.575249

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1470

working_capital_outflow_oku

50.494409

cfo_oku

3211.048108

nci_dividends_oku

20.269729

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

18.638408

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

7.24827

parent_oci_oku

3.429963

nci_oci_oku

0.060809

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

690.00896

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

15.514241629

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2033-07-01

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2033-07-29

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

13.71985

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

1950717

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.783175

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

865.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

698.945635

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

684.97727089

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

8669.8818954

equity_end_oku

9707.9861471

nci_begin_oku

468.0498009

nci_end_oku

505.7634734

cash_begin_oku

928.1572907

cash_end_oku

1006.7041484

debt_begin_oku

9271.8596075

debt_end_oku

9519.148971

cb_liability_begin_oku

cb_liability_end_oku

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

9398.568971

net_bank_borrowing_oku

247.2893635

net_debt_end_oku

8512.4448226

economic_shares_begin

4447584203

economic_shares_end

4449333486

issued_shares_begin

4520525203

issued_shares_end

4522274486

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.248412E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.247528E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2034_calendar_fy

対象年度

2034

date_start

2034-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2034-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2035-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 2.75401875
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 6340.613714
営業利益: 1673.922021
営業利益率: 26.40%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 6340.613714

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.08285671
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2223.209637
営業利益: 289.017253
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2223.209637

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 2.30453777
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2258.631377
営業利益: 618.864997
営業利益率: 27.40%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2258.631377

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.53468651
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4677.248745
営業利益: 203.928045
営業利益率: 4.36%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 4677.248745

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.2184029
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 128.773002
営業利益: 2.833006
営業利益率: 2.20%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 128.773002

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-120

売上高

15628.476476

営業利益

2668.565322

sbc_expense_oku

28.131258

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

221.323565

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

other_nonoperating_oku

39.071191

pretax_oku

2486.312948

tax_oku

459.967895

consolidated_profit_oku

2026.345053

nci_profit_oku

59.067958

純利益

1967.277094

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2630.79354

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1575

working_capital_outflow_oku

56.114489

cfo_oku

3573.361821

nci_dividends_oku

23.627183

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

20.254506

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

7.876752

parent_oci_oku

3.934554

nci_oci_oku

0.070882

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

788.891497

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

17.730554468

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2034-07-07

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2034-07-28

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

15.738219

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

2176744

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.840573

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

865.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

799.789143

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

782.83084032

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

9707.9861471

equity_end_oku

10899.6631583

nci_begin_oku

505.7634734

nci_end_oku

549.1518821

cash_begin_oku

1006.7041484

cash_end_oku

1093.9933533

debt_begin_oku

9519.148971

debt_end_oku

9487.2862208

cb_liability_begin_oku

cb_liability_end_oku

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

9366.7062208

net_bank_borrowing_oku

-31.8627502

net_debt_end_oku

8393.2928674

economic_shares_begin

4449333486

economic_shares_end

4450856742

issued_shares_begin

4522274486

issued_shares_end

4523797742

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.247528E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.246758E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2035_calendar_fy

対象年度

2035

date_start

2035-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2035-12-31

date_end_exclusive

2036-01-01

days

365

fraction_of_fy

calendar_period_type

full_fy

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 3.12581128
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 7196.596566
営業利益: 1939.482774
営業利益率: 26.95%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 7196.596566

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.09368527
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2245.441734
営業利益: 291.907425
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2245.441734

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 2.55803692
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2507.080829
営業利益: 700.729092
営業利益率: 27.95%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2507.080829

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.61909427
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4934.497426
営業利益: 223.532733
営業利益率: 4.53%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 4934.497426

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.24886297
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 131.992327
営業利益: 3.10182
営業利益率: 2.35%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 131.992327

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-122.5

売上高

17015.608881

営業利益

3036.253845

sbc_expense_oku

30.628096

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

218.225615

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

other_nonoperating_oku

42.539022

pretax_oku

2860.567252

tax_oku

529.204942

consolidated_profit_oku

2331.362311

nci_profit_oku

69.008324

純利益

2262.353986

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2580.70068

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1680

working_capital_outflow_oku

62.420958

cfo_oku

3979.569448

nci_dividends_oku

27.60333

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

22.052229

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

8.575867

parent_oci_oku

4.524708

nci_oci_oku

0.08281

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

904.947463

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

20.331983612

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2035-07-06

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2035-07-27

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

18.098828

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

2435057

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.89866

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

1500000

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

865.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

918.147632

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

897.68787799

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

10899.6631583

equity_end_oku

12270.4464496

nci_begin_oku

549.1518821

nci_end_oku

599.2155536

cash_begin_oku

1093.9933533

cash_end_oku

1191.0926217

debt_begin_oku

9487.2862208

debt_end_oku

9131.2676828

cb_liability_begin_oku

cb_liability_end_oku

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

9010.6876828

net_bank_borrowing_oku

-356.0185379

net_debt_end_oku

7940.1750612

economic_shares_begin

4450856742

economic_shares_end

4452121685

issued_shares_begin

4523797742

issued_shares_end

4525062685

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.246758E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.24612E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

内容を開く

period_id

2036_partial_to_2036_11_06

対象年度

2036

date_start

2036-01-01

date_end_inclusive

2036-11-06

date_end_exclusive

2036-11-07

days

311

fraction_of_fy

0.849726776

calendar_period_type

final_stub

segments

内容を開く

id: packaging_advanced
数量: 3.5477958
価格・単価: 2302.3132
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 6940.684805
営業利益: 1908.688321
営業利益率: 27.50%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 8168.137102

内容を開く

id: packaging_legacy
数量: 1.10462213
価格・単価: 2053.0968
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 1927.092085
営業利益: 250.521971
営業利益率: 13.00%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2267.896151

内容を開く

id: testing
数量: 2.83942099
価格・単価: 980.08
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2364.670418
営業利益: 673.931069
営業利益率: 28.50%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 2782.85972

内容を開く

id: ems
数量: 1.70814446
価格・単価: 3047.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 4423.588191
営業利益: 207.908645
営業利益率: 4.70%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 5205.894784

内容を開く

id: others
数量: 1.28008454
価格・単価: 105.69
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 114.96135
営業利益: 2.874034
営業利益率: 2.50%
full_fy_revenue_oku: 135.292135

segment_price_volume_basis

2026FY各セグメント売上指数=1、数量指数は製品・顧客ミックス・有機成長代理。価格は2026FY売上億TWD /指数。

adjust_oku

-106.215847

売上高

15770.996849

営業利益

2937.708193

sbc_expense_oku

28.387794

op_oku_already_after_sbc

はい

finance_interest_including_cash_proxy_oku

175.421463

noncash_cb_effective_interest_oku

other_nonoperating_oku

39.427492

pretax_oku

2801.714222

tax_oku

518.317131

consolidated_profit_oku

2283.397091

nci_profit_oku

68.616083

純利益

2214.781008

gross_equipment_capex_oku

2129.084575

depreciation_amortisation_oku

1516.762295

working_capital_outflow_oku

59.057027

cfo_oku

3769.490154

nci_dividends_oku

27.446433

parent_sbc_equity_credit_oku

20.439212

subsidiary_sbc_equity_credit_nci_oku

7.948582

parent_oci_oku

4.429562

nci_oci_oku

0.082339

cash_dividends_issuer_oku

1040.682834

cash_dividend_per_economic_share_TWD

23.374986293

dividend_ex_date_assumed

2036-07-04

dividend_payment_date_assumed

2036-07-25

dividend_ex_date_confirmed

未確認

gross_common_share_repurchases_oku

17.718248

shares_repurhased_from_other_holders

2318923

cash_proceeds_from_employee_options_oku

4.957444

employee_option_shares_issued

2200000

employee_restricted_shares_issued

employee_restricted_shares_cash_received_oku

cb_conversion_shares_issued

cb_liability_reclassified_to_equity_oku

cb_redemption_cash_oku

cb_redemption_bank_refinancing_oku

cb_loss_on_early_extinguishment_pretax_oku

cb_contract_strike_after_dividend_adjustments_TWD

865.19

cb_conversion_date_if_any

未確認

cb_cash_maturity_settlement_date_if_any

未確認

cb_future_prevailing_usd_twd_assumed

未確認

net_issuer_returns_oku

1053.443638

old_holder_cash_dividend_oku_synthetic

1032.04105632

old_holder_buyback_tender_cash_oku

equity_begin_oku

12270.4464496

equity_end_oku

13456.6525942

nci_begin_oku

599.2155536

nci_end_oku

648.4161249

cash_begin_oku

1191.0926217

cash_end_oku

1299.2055925

debt_begin_oku

9131.2676828

debt_end_oku

8679.8651454

cb_liability_begin_oku

cb_liability_end_oku

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_begin_oku

120.58

unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_end_oku

120.58

identified_non_cb_bank_bonds_debt_end_oku

8559.2851454

net_bank_borrowing_oku

-451.4025375

net_debt_end_oku

7380.6595529

economic_shares_begin

4452121685

economic_shares_end

4452002762

issued_shares_begin

4525062685

issued_shares_end

4524943762

subsidiary_held_treasury_shares_proxy

72941000

old_one_share_fraction_before

2.24612E-10

old_one_share_fraction_after

2.24618E-10

year_profit_after_SBC

はい

validation_residuals

内容を開く

親会社持分（億）: 0
現金（億）: 0
debt_oku: 0
非支配持分資本（億）: 0
share_count: 0

model_status

forecast

annual_forecast_reference_2027_2036

内容を開く

対象年度: 2027
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 9098.28725
営業利益: 1115.70046
ordinary_profit_oku: 844.779459
company_dividends_oku: 382.6878
ending_equity_oku: 4915.107164

内容を開く

対象年度: 2028
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 9771.013754
営業利益: 1258.152273
ordinary_profit_oku: 936.890516
company_dividends_oku: 388.598551
ending_equity_oku: 5474.9472518

内容を開く

対象年度: 2029
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 10514.529317
営業利益: 1421.287562
ordinary_profit_oku: 1048.264628
company_dividends_oku: 430.969638
ending_equity_oku: 6104.1397917

内容を開く

対象年度: 2030
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 11337.249901
営業利益: 1608.099988
ordinary_profit_oku: 1180.980066
company_dividends_oku: 482.201729
ending_equity_oku: 6815.1403565

内容を開く

対象年度: 2031
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 12248.648183
営業利益: 1822.01713
ordinary_profit_oku: 1316.17971
company_dividends_oku: 543.25083
ending_equity_oku: 7762.3945738

内容を開く

対象年度: 2032
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 13259.389867
営業利益: 2066.963298
ordinary_profit_oku: 1500.019478
company_dividends_oku: 605.442667
ending_equity_oku: 8669.8818954

内容を開く

対象年度: 2033
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 14381.487834
営業利益: 2347.431422
ordinary_profit_oku: 1714.981516
company_dividends_oku: 690.00896
ending_equity_oku: 9707.9861471

内容を開く

対象年度: 2034
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 15628.476476
営業利益: 2668.565322
ordinary_profit_oku: 1967.277094
company_dividends_oku: 788.891497
ending_equity_oku: 10899.6631583

内容を開く

対象年度: 2035
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: いいえ
売上高: 17015.608881
営業利益: 3036.253845
ordinary_profit_oku: 2262.353986
company_dividends_oku: 904.947463
ending_equity_oku: 12270.4464496

内容を開く

対象年度: 2036
full_year_projection_not_counted_to_horizon: はい
売上高: 18560.079893
営業利益: 3457.238581
after_terminal_fraction_2036: 0.150273224
full_fy_2036_profit_rough_extrapolation_oku: 2606.462537
excluded_post_horizon_revenue_oku: 2789.083044
excluded_post_horizon_op_oku: 519.530388
excluded_post_horizon_dividend_oku: 0
exclusion_note: 2036-11-06以後の利益・SBC交付・買戻しは10年CFと期末簿価に前倒ししない。

financial_summary_10y

内容を開く

periods: 11
start: 2026-11-06
end: 2036-11-06
days: 3653
company_parent_profit_sum_oku: 15112.050939
company_cash_dividends_sum_oku: 6257.681969
company_gross_buybacks_sum_oku: 119.892059
company_paid_options_cash_sum_oku: 47.011095
company_net_issuer_returns_oku: 6330.562933
parent_sbc_credit_sum_oku: 169.309683
parent_OCI_sum_oku: 29.973014
cb_liability_non_cash_reclassified_sum_oku: 161.677758
start_equity_oku: 4314.2041304
end_equity_oku: 13456.6525942
ending_cash_oku: 1299.2055925
ending_interest_debt_oku: 8679.8651454
ending_unidentified_interest_bearing_debt_oku: 120.58
ending_identified_noncb_debt_oku: 8559.2851454
ending_nci_oku: 648.4161249
ending_issued_shares: 4524943762
ending_economic_shares_proxy: 4452002762
one_original_share_timed_dividends_TWD: 140.96517451
one_original_share_terminal_TWD: 604.07691015
noncash_zero_amount_events: 51
cash_dividend_events: 10
clean_surplus_residual_oku: -2.21E-6

scenario_present_value

内容を開く

discount_k: 0.115
holder_payout_pv_oku: 3336.2853737
holder_terminal_pv_oku: 8978.9273156
holder_total_pv_oku: 12315.2126892
present_value_per_initial_share_TWD: 278.9306937
market_price_TWD: 527
price_gap_ratio: -0.470719746
holder_xirr: 0.03834599

bond_events

内容を開く

legal_maturity_date: 2031-08-10
legal_final_conversion_date: 2031-07-31
assumed_conversion_date: 2031-07-24
assumed_redemption_cash_date: 2031-08-11
conversion_closed_period_check_pending: はい
event_type: convert_2031
bond_liability_begin_oku: 317.4113577
noncash_effective_interest_until_settlement_oku: 6.191831
bond_liability_before_settlement_oku: 323.6031887
converted_fraction: 0.5
converted_book_liability_oku: 161.6777577
redeemed_book_liability_oku: 161.925431
face_principal_oku_at_fixed_fx: 323.88
redeemed_principal_TWD_oku: 161.94
refinancing_new_bank_debt_TWD_oku: 161.94
future_TWD_per_USD_prevailing_rate_ASSUMED: 31.5
currency_linked_USD_cash_repayment_assumed: 514095238.1
USD_cash_formula: USD_face_redeemed * 32.3880 / projected prevailing FX on rate calculation date
NTD_equivalent_formula: USD_cash * projected prevailing FX / 1e8 = USD_face * 32.3880 / 1e8
conversion_strike_initial_TWD: 927.2
conversion_strike_adjusted_model_TWD: 865.19
new_parent_common_shares_from_conversion: 18717276
noncash_book_liability_to_parent_equity_oku: 161.6777577
initial_option_equity_component_newly_credited_oku: 0
loss_on_redeemed_book_before_tax_oku: 0.014569
not_verified_balance_sheet_option_split: はい
状態: forecast_event_not_contract_holder_exercise
share_price_at_conversion_or_put_TWD_PROJECTION: 950
conversion_in_the_money_under_model_spot: はい
conversion_share_market_value_oku_illustrative: 177.814122
full_or_partial_holder_right_decision: Assumed elective conversion because illustrative spot exceeds strike, not an announced bondholder instruction
early_cash_settlement_reference_day_minus_five_business_days_fx_rate: 未確認
status_of_actual_rate: Future contract rate fixing at Taipei Forex 11:00 is unknown; scenario spot is illustrative only.

bond_conversion_price_forecast_history

内容を開く

forecast_ex_date: 2027-07-02
record_date: 未確認
cash_dividend_per_share_TWD: 8.667602926
contract_30_day_M_model_proxy_TWD: 617.5386
price_before_theoretical_TWD: 927.2
theoretical_price_after_TWD: 914.18607434
effective_strike_TWD: 914.19
effective_strike_previous_TWD: 927.2
one_percent_cumulative_threshold_triggered: はい
carry_unapplied_fraction: 4.294E-6
状態: contractual_formula_with_unverified_forecast_dividend_and_30_trading_day_market_value
verification_required: ex_date, record_date, official strike adjustment notice, market value and closed period

内容を開く

forecast_ex_date: 2028-07-07
record_date: 未確認
cash_dividend_per_share_TWD: 8.796365025
contract_30_day_M_model_proxy_TWD: 670.029381
price_before_theoretical_TWD: 914.18607434
theoretical_price_after_TWD: 902.18434033
effective_strike_TWD: 902.18
effective_strike_previous_TWD: 914.19
one_percent_cumulative_threshold_triggered: はい
carry_unapplied_fraction: -4.811E-6
状態: contractual_formula_with_unverified_forecast_dividend_and_30_trading_day_market_value
verification_required: ex_date, record_date, official strike adjustment notice, market value and closed period

内容を開く

forecast_ex_date: 2029-07-06
record_date: 未確認
cash_dividend_per_share_TWD: 9.750016409
contract_30_day_M_model_proxy_TWD: 726.9818784
price_before_theoretical_TWD: 902.18434033
theoretical_price_after_TWD: 890.08457225
effective_strike_TWD: 890.08
effective_strike_previous_TWD: 902.18
one_percent_cumulative_threshold_triggered: はい
carry_unapplied_fraction: -5.137E-6
状態: contractual_formula_with_unverified_forecast_dividend_and_30_trading_day_market_value
verification_required: ex_date, record_date, official strike adjustment notice, market value and closed period

内容を開く

forecast_ex_date: 2030-07-05
record_date: 未確認
cash_dividend_per_share_TWD: 10.903220577
contract_30_day_M_model_proxy_TWD: 788.775338
price_before_theoretical_TWD: 890.08457225
theoretical_price_after_TWD: 877.78095682
effective_strike_TWD: 877.78
effective_strike_previous_TWD: 890.08
one_percent_cumulative_threshold_triggered: はい
carry_unapplied_fraction: -1.09E-6
状態: contractual_formula_with_unverified_forecast_dividend_and_30_trading_day_market_value
verification_required: ex_date, record_date, official strike adjustment notice, market value and closed period

内容を開く

forecast_ex_date: 2031-07-04
record_date: 未確認
cash_dividend_per_share_TWD: 12.277401464
contract_30_day_M_model_proxy_TWD: 855.8212418
price_before_theoretical_TWD: 877.78095682
theoretical_price_after_TWD: 865.18852667
effective_strike_TWD: 865.19
effective_strike_previous_TWD: 877.78
one_percent_cumulative_threshold_triggered: はい
carry_unapplied_fraction: 1.703E-6
状態: contractual_formula_with_unverified_forecast_dividend_and_30_trading_day_market_value
verification_required: ex_date, record_date, official strike adjustment notice, market value and closed period

bond_liability_book_sensitivity_reference

220.0

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.5661843
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3240225
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029262

272.16

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.9306937
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.6031887
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.014569

315.0

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 279.2300756
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8324732
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0025014

AI投資成長の平準化とEMS安定（確率 40.0%）

設備増強の成果は出るが2026年の急成長率は収束。2031年の親会社CBは現金償還・銀行借換え。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

設備過剰・回復遅延（確率 18.0%）

高稼働を見込んだ大型投資が過剰となり投資回収が遅れる。CBは2029年の早期売戻しを全額行使と仮定。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

半導体・地政学ショック（確率 7.0%）

台湾海峡・貿易規制とAI投資の逆回転。配当縮小・銀行借入増。CBは2029年売戻し・借換え。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

事業の詳細

種類

台湾ASEH連結パッケージング/テストとUSI(環旭)EMS。ASX米国ADSとは同一普通株の預託証券。

company_customer_concentration_q3

内容を開く

ATM_top5_pct: 0.46
ATM_top10_pct: 0.63
EMS_top5_pct: 0.7
EMS_top10_pct: 0.78

advanced_packaging_definition

2026年Q3のbumping/Flip Chip/WLP/SiP等の開示は先端包装と完全同義でなく、HBM関連・先端の正確な売上額は未公表。モデル内の先端比率は独自代理推定。

technology_drivers

内容を開く

1: 2.5D/3D異種集積・FC/WLP/SiP
2: HBM関連パッケージ・テストの需要波及
3: 従来Wirebondと車載・産業
4: USI EMS電子機器組立

company_segment_elimination

ASE ATM operations view can include transactions with EMS and must not be simply added; use only consolidated external revenue packaging/testing/EMS/others in Q3 statement (sum=2441.61億TWD).

競争力の詳細

advantages: 世界的後工程基盤、顧客認証とテスト設備、材料・設計を含むTurnkey、主要地域での生産網。
weaknesses: 顧客集中、設備償却、技術陳腐化、台湾地政学、電力・水・人件費、USD/TWD変動。
sbc: 2026Q1子会社含むSBC費用NT$338.594m (3.38594億TWD)、H1 restricted stock unearned benefits expense NT$338.567mは同一概念の部分表示で別加算しない。予測SBCは営業費用に含んでおり純利益へ戻さない。
acquisition: EugenLight 65.47%を2026年1月取得、少数株主利益はNCIとして控除。現場利益を子会社外部売上に重複計上しない。

業界の詳細

cycle

先端需要加速・AI設備投資集中と、従来型封止/EMSの単価・稼働率下振れを分離して予測。

capex

competition

内容を開く

1: Amkor
2: JCET
3: TSMC CoWoS等内製・競合/顧客補完
4: 各種OSAT
5: EMS peers

constraints

内容を開く

1: 台湾海峡リスク
2: HBM向け半導体サイクル
3: 設備リードタイム
4: 物流・電源・水
5: China/US輸出制限
6: 顧客の内製化・競合設備能力

財務・資本配分の詳細

reported_2026_Q3_9months_TWD_oku

内容を開く

期間末

2026-09-30

released_on

2026-10-29

reporting_basis

unaudited Taiwan-endorsed IFRS

nine_months_revenue

6088.87

nine_months_operating_income

717.65

nine_months_pretax

765.68

nine_months_tax

126.32

nine_months_consolidated_profit

639.36

nine_months_NCI_profit

17.43

nine_months_parent_profit

621.93

nine_months_CFO

1338.63

nine_months_cash_equipment_capex

2497.92

Q3_revenue

2441.61

Q3_operating_income

331.42

Q3_parent_profit

269.96

Q3_nci_profit

8.83

Q3_basic_weighted_average_shares

4403114522

Q3_diluted_weighted_average_shares

4532143664

Q3_EPS_TWD

6.13

Q3_diluted_EPS_TWD

5.84

parent_equity

4228.34

noncontrolling_equity

310.88

total_equity

4539.22

cash

884.21

other_current_financial_assets

195.17

total_reported_interest_bearing_debt

4064.61

sum_visible_interest_bearing_components

3944.03

debt_definition_gap

120.58

reported_debt_visible_breakdown_oku

内容を開く

short_borrowings: 704.28
current_longterm_debts_bonds_and_loans: 51.41
bonds_payable_noncurrent: 422.01
longterm_bank_and_bills: 2766.33

unidentified_debt_oku

120.58

unidentified_debt_status

Q3 issuer total interest debt includes 120.58 oku more than separately printed summary headings; no verified classification, carried separately inside (not on top of) reported total.

net_debt_before_current_financial_assets

3180.4

net_debt_after_current_financial_assets

2985.23

balance_sheet_total_assets

12447.85

balance_sheet_total_liabilities

7908.63

parent_profit_after_SBC

はい

noncontrolling_interests_already_excluded_from_parent_profit

はい

reported_q3_segments_external_TWD_oku

内容を開く

packaging: 1221.73
testing: 263.02
ems: 929.97
others: 26.89
consolidated: 2441.61

reported_9m_segments_external_TWD_oku

内容を開く

packaging: 3105.41
testing: 710.08
ems: 2197.69
others: 75.69
consolidated: 6088.87

reported_H1_treasury_and_SBC

内容を開く

treasury_subsidiary_shares_2026_06_30: 72941000
accounting_treasury_cost_TWD_oku: 19.59107
subsidiary_treasury_market_fair_value_2026_06_30_TWD_oku: 496.00224
forfeitable_unearned_benefits_SBC_expense_6months_TWD_oku: 3.38567
complete_consolidated_H1_SBC_expense_TWD_oku: 未確認
comment: H1の非稼得報酬評価はSBC総額全体とは限らずQ1のSBCに機械的加算しない。

bond_2026_details

内容を開く

parent_cb_ISIN

XS3462009369

USD_face

1000000000

fixed_conversion_fx_USD_TWD

32.388

conversion_price_initial_TWD

927.2

bond_maturity

2031-08-10

conversion_period_start

2026-11-11

conversion_period_last_date

2031-07-31

model_conversion_date_conditional

2031-07-24

model_cash_redemption_settlement_assumed

2031-08-11

early_put_date

2029-08-10

zero_coupon

はい

principal_at_contract_fx_TWD_oku

323.88

initial_converted_new_shares_if_all

34930975

2031_adjusted_conversion_shares

scenario bond_events.derived from cumulative forecast cash dividends, 1pct deferred threshold and proxy 30-day market value

Q3_bonds_payable_total_TWD_oku

422.01

June_domestic_bonds_carrying_proxy_TWD_oku

149.85

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_proxy_oku

272.16

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_low_high_proxy_oku

1: 220
2: 315

unconfirmed_conversion_option_in_2026_09_30_equity_oku

未確認

unconfirmed_embedded_derivative_or_equity_split

未確認

do_not_recredit_initial_conversion_option

はい

cash_dividend_conversion_price_formula

NCP=OCP*(M-C)/M (M contractual market value before ex-date; C cash per share), cumulative 1pct threshold and carry-forward

cash_redemption_currency_linked_formula

Settlement Equivalent USD=USD principal*(32.3880 / Prevailing Rate on rate calculation date), 5 business days before payment. TWD economic equivalent=USD principal*32.3880

early_redemption_legal_notes

Holder put 2029-08-10; delisting, change of control protections; company cleanup call if over 90% redeemed/converted; conversion closed periods and notices restrict actual feasible dates

parent_cb_exact_Sept_book_oku

未確認

no_double_count

old_USI_RMB_convertible

2026-01にUSISHのRMB債は転換・残額償還。親会社3711株式と誤認しない。転換によるUSI子会社株主比率/NCIに反映済みの9/30報告残高を出発点とする。

q3_cb_book_value_sensitivity_recomputed_all_ledgers

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

220

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

202.943841

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001871163

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8960.27802

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

-0.337883

by_scenario

内容を開く

bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.0476483
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 322.826569
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.5661843
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3240225
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029262

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.0471759
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8214761
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0585239

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.4276007
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 9.8866028
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

272.16

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.281724

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001989287

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8975.1960536

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

by_scenario

内容を開く

bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.4003554
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3555155
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.9306937
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.6031887
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.014569

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.4140221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.850862
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029138

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.7114221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.0850934
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

315

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.559241

weighted_expected_IRR

0.002086307

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8987.4488731

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

0.277517

by_scenario

内容を開く

bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.6901013
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.7899493
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 279.2300756
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8324732
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0025014

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.7153199
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8749972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0050028

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.94453
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.2481174
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

book_sensitivity_method

sensitivity_limitation

This is only an accounting allocation sensitivity, NOT independently inferred market option fair value nor a verified 2026 Q3 note classification.

calendar_maturity_weekend_status

Contractual 2031-08-10 is a Sunday; 2031-08-11 is model cash-settlement business day assumption, not an issuer settlement notice.

interest_bearing_debt_reconciliation

内容を開く

日付: 2026-09-30
reported_total_oku: 4064.61
visible_sum_oku: 3944.03
unidentified_inside_total_oku: 120.58
計算式: 704.28+51.41+422.01+2766.33+120.58=4064.61
double_count_control: The 120.58 is part of 4064.61, not an extra addition; carried unclassified every year inside balance sheet total debt.

post_q3_2026_initial_bridge

内容を開く

2026_Q4_revenue_model_oku

2400

Q4_parent_profit_model_oku

210

Q4_parent_SBC_equity_credit_model_oku

3.5

Q4_CFO_model_oku

650

Q4_equipment_capex_model_oku

700

Q4_bank_debt_net_draw_model_oku

Q4_day_count

2026_10_01_to_2026_11_06_inclusive_days

2026_11_07_to_2026_12_31_inclusive_days

base_date_equity_proxy_oku

4314.2041304

base_date_cash_proxy_oku

884.21

base_date_debt_proxy_oku

4085.7968027

base_date_nci_proxy_oku

314.378913

base_date_book_not_verified

はい

actual_post_Sept_capital_transactions

未確認

q4_2026_day_bridge

内容を開く

q4_full_days

q3_end

2026-09-30

pre_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-10-01
2: 2026-11-06

pre_valuation_days

post_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-11-07
2: 2026-12-31

post_valuation_days

sum_days

base_date_2026_11_06_eod

はい

net_2026_Q4_profit_and_stock_comp_expense

Q4の利益は報告IFRS利益を模した予測。親会社SBC資本繰入額は2026Q4予測として純利益とは別に簿価へ加算。

model_clean_surplus_policy

model_cash_policy

convertible_forecast_key_method

FX_reference_date

2026-11-06

USD_TWD_CBC

32.768

tax_policy

全CFは台湾普通株主段階の源泉税前。ETF EWT実効控除率、米国・日本投資家税は未確認のため控除しない。

dividend_calendar_history

内容を開く

2026_declared_pre_base_dividend: 6.6
2026_ex_dividend_observed_secondary: 2026-07-03
2026_payment_date_observed_secondary: 2026-07-31
excluded_after_2026_11_06: はい
2027_and_later_declared_as_of_base: いいえ

terminal_sbc_economic_sensitivity

内容を開く

key: bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 46674.6385259
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 46642.9556944
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4443359935
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4476659935
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 46537.8632832
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15626.5633755
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15615.9560352
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.240249
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -1.037157
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: base
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 16079.1423285
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 16067.4914629
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 16040.6092671
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5369.9656948
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5366.0746447
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.088129
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.291472
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 4933.7037009
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 4930.0285165
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 4923.1761417
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1647.7134838
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1646.4860791
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.0278
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.079633
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 282.6191504
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 282.4051328
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 282.0655069
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3865731
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3150974
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.001619
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.004188
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

terminal_perpetuity_policy

評価根拠の詳細

twse_official_price: 527
株価基準日: 2026-11-06
volume_twse: 43145321
reference_issued_shares: 4488092493
proxy_economic_shares: 4415151493
market_cap_proxy_oku: 23267.848368
weighted_issuer_terminal_oku_separate: 19125.9733279
weighted_old_holder_terminal_oku: 18985.3112772
weighted_old_holder_payout_oku: 4711.7338817
weighted_old_holder_pv_oku: 8975.1960536
theoretical_value_per_share_TWD: 203.281724
gap_pct: -61.426618
discount_k: 0.115
weighted_expected_holder_xirr: 0.001989287
year_count_actual_36525: 10.001368925394
days_exact: 3653
market_multiple_used: いいえ
10y_economic_reference: old non-selling one share, synthetic rescaled by starting proxy denominator; terminal not in timed_cashflows
ADS_not_doubled: はい

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

527

株数

4415151493

株価の出所

TWSE 2026-11-06 official 3711 close NT$527.00, volume 43,145,321

株価基準日

2026-11-06

株数の出所

2026-09-30 6-K total shares 4,488,092,493 including subsidiary holdings, less 2026-06-30 detailed filing subsidiary treasury 72,941,000; date mixed proxy, not confirmed 2026-11-06 exact

shares_as_of_proxy

2026-09-30 shares + 2026-06-30 treasury

issued_including_subsidiary_held_shares_2026_09_30

4488092493

subsidiary_treasury_shares_2026_06_30

72941000

subsidiary_treasury_shares_2026_09_30

未確認

shares_exact_2026_11_06

未確認

理由

11月6日当日発行・潜在株数、および9月末・11月6日の子会社保有株残高を一次資料で厳密照合できない。2026Q3の加重平均4,403,114,522株は期末株数ではない。

additional_ADS_share_count

one_NYSE_ASX_ADS_equals_TW_ordinary_shares

reference_FX_USD_TWD_2026_11_06

32.768

FX_primary

https://www.cbc.gov.tw/en/lp-700-2.html

ADS_ordinary_equivalence_note

ASX ADR 1口=台湾普通株2株。NYSE USD終値は台北13:30 CSTより後の取引。換算は参考にとどめ、NYSE分の発行株加算を禁止。

share_denominator_sensitivity

内容を開く

using_issued_all_shares: 4488092493
using_proxied_subsidiary_treasury_exclusion: 4415151493
difference_share_count: 72941000
reference_issue: 子会社持株は会計上自己株。配当・議決権の扱いは一般株式と異なり得るため外部受取株数で試算。

検証上の留意点

schema_compatibility

aiv-2-eu-pilot fields for Taiwan local price and monetary amounts in 億TWD, shares in physical shares; horizons cashflow_method overrides older 5yr lump rule.

time_axis

内容を開く

start: 2026-11-06
end: 2036-11-06
days: 3653
act_36525_years: 10.001368925394
stubs: 2026-11-07 through 2026-12-31 inclusive =55/92 Q4 days (2026-11-06 closing date excluded); full calendar years 2027–2035 (9 years); 2036-01-01 through 2036-11-06 inclusive =311/366 leap-year days (endpoint INCLUDED). Terminal valuation date itself remains 2036-11-06. 2036-11-07 to Dec31 excluded.
total_scenario_periods: 55
initial_stub_days: 55
initial_stub_q4_denominator_days: 92
initial_fraction_q4: 0.597826086957
final_stub_days: 311
final_stub_fy_denominator_days: 366
final_fraction_fy: 0.849726775956
full_middle_calendar_days: 3287
day_partition_sum_check: 3653
full_fy_rows_2027_to_2035: 45
reference_fy2036_rows: 5

monetary_unit

億TWD; all dates local Taiwan time; price TWD/one local ordinary share.

company_reported

内容を開く

Q3_revenue_oku: 2441.61
Q3_parent_net_oku: 269.96
Q3_parent_equity_oku: 4228.34
NCI_oku: 310.88
現金（億）: 884.21
debt_oku: 4064.61
subsidiary_held_treasury_6mo_shares: 72941000

segment_reconciliation

2026 9M packaging 3105.41+testing710.08+EMS2197.69+other75.69=6088.87, intercompany eliminated. Advanced vs legacy split is analyst estimate only.

accounting_equity_bridge

E_owner_end = E_owner_base + ΣNI_owner_after_SBC + ΣOCI + ΣSBC_owner_equity_credit + Σpaid_employee_options + ΣCB_book_liability_on_conversion − Σissuer_dividend − Σissuer_buyback.

company_vs_holder

payout_oku = sum of positive dated dividends for one non-selling share multiplied by N0 shares; it is NOT issuer dividend+buyback−issuance. Issuer buyback only changes company equity and denominator, not non-tendering holder cash.

terminal_value_rule

2036-11-06 TTM parent NI after SBC -> 2037 NI less needed reinvestment plus one parent SBC noncash addback plus option cash proceeds minus actual market cost of repurchasing same 3.7m shares to neutralize awards; solve implicit justified value. No simultaneous future dilution and full cash buyback charge; debt and NCI already accounted in NI.

bond_no_double_count

Q3 CB liability is inside reported total interest debt; initial option allocated to equity or derivatives is not separately confirmed and MUST NOT be credited again. At 2029 put or 2031 residual maturity, pay Settlement Equivalent USD based on fixed TWD 32.388 and prospective prevailing FX; refinancing replaces liability once. Conversion modeled 2031-07-24 within legal period, parent equity receives remaining liability book only, shares computed at cumulatively dividend-adjusted strike. Unknown Q3 debt gap 120.58 oku remains inside total as separate bucket.

earnings_and_NCI

Reported parent profit is already after subsidiary minority profit. Subsidiary RMB convertible was settled in Jan2026 and ensuing minority stake is in Q3 balance-sheet NCI; no second deduction.

SBC_no_double_count

IFRS net retains SBC expense. Through 2036 restricted 1.5m and paid-option 2.2m new shares per full year are in denominator and company equity/cash. Starting 2037 assume 3.7m market purchases annually to neutralize dilution: net+sbc_parent_non_cash_credit+option_cash - gross market_buyback_cash - growth reinvestment. Terminal never simultaneously subtracts dilution plus same future repurchase. NCI SBC addback is not assigned to parent.

sub_treasury

Subsidiaries hold proxy72,941,000 shares (last detailed June2026), not a regular public-market buyback. 9/30 exact and Nov6 outstanding shares unknown, sensitivity documented.

provisional_dividend_dates

2027–2036 first Friday July ex, last Friday July payment, prior business day at least 30 days before ex for zero cash recheck; NONE announced on 2026-11-06.

withholding

Tax before TWSE local shareholder withholding. EWT effective dividend tax unknown; US and Japanese investor tax omitted.

expected_IRR_not_weighted_scenario_IRR

Expected cash-flow IRR 0.001989287 vs probability-weighted scenario IRR reference -0.031816193; different statistics.

scenario_prob_sum

weighted_present_value_reconciliation

内容を開く

weighted_PV_oku: 8975.1960536
weighted_terminal_PV_oku: 6391.5226528
weighted_dividend_PV_oku: 2583.6734008
difference_oku: -2.0E-8

uncertain

内容を開く

item: 2026-11-06 real issued shares and subsidiary treasury
値: 未確認
理由: 2026 9/30 total reported shares and 6/30 treasury detail only; 11/6 exact unverified.

item: 2026 Q3 full reviewed IFRS footnote SBC and CB liability split
値: 未確認
理由: Oct29 company summary unaudited; full 9mo review/share-based balance and CB option carry split not confirmed by base date.

item: 2026Q4 audited actual
値: 未確認
理由: as of date 2026-11-06 not published; opening balance interpolation is projection.

item: 2027–2036 declared dividends and ex dates
値: 未確認
理由: not yet declared; use only assumed dates and zero cash recheck events.

item: 2029 CB put and 2031 conversion exercise fraction
値: 未確認
理由: bondholder choices depend on future share price, contract adjustment and credit; scenario assumptions only.

item: 2029 and 2031 exchange rates and future CB conversion price adjustments
値: 未確認
理由: unknown; contractual fixed FX32.388 and modeled future Prevailing Rate, provisional market price M and dividends, cumulative CP adjustment and 1pct threshold are now in bond schedules; actual issuer notices and final terms unknown.

item: EWT ETF effective after withholding/dividend tax
値: 未確認
理由: not verified for ETF domicile, treaty and fund-specific arrangements; modeled pre-tax.

item: 2036 realized cash, debt, NCI and terminal valuation
値: 未確認
理由: all contingent forward-looking projections.

bond_contract_confirmations

内容を開く

prospectus_conversion_last: 2031-07-31
model_safe_conversion_date: 2031-07-24
maturity: 2031-08-10
2029_put: 2029-08-10
currency_linked_settlement: USD payable = USD face*32.3880/future prevailing rate
dividend_adjustment: CPnew=CPold*(M-C)/M and 1pct cumulative adjustment threshold, modeled proxy M

algorithm_validation

内容を開く

five_scenarios: 5
total_part_period_rows: 55
unidentified_Q3_debt_remains_inside_total: はい
contract_conversion_date_within_period: はい
terminal_2037_employee_shares_neutralised: はい
scenario_11_periods_each: はい
10_dividend_cashflows_each: はい
no_terminal_in_timed_cashflows: はい
book_cash_debt_nci_share_rollforward_pass: はい
timestamps_in_0_to_10_00137: はい
probability_sum_one: はい
bond_equity_debt_cash_conservation_pass: はい
date_split_55_3287_311_pass: はい

SBC_2037_dilution_and_cash_compensation_check

内容を開く

adopted

cash_market_repurchase_share_neutral_2037_and_beyond

future_parent_ordinary_SBC_expense_remains_in_reported_NI

はい

parent_noncash_SBC_addback_once_in_terminal_FCFE

はい

future_company_market_buyback_shares_equal_restricted_plus_paid_option_shares

はい

future_additional_ownership_dilution_charged_in_main_terminal

いいえ

no_repurchase_dilution_risk_sensitivity_provided

はい

employee_share_transfer_status

FORECAST, not pre-2036 confirmed grants or vesting

2037_per_case_sensitivities

内容を開く

key: bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 46674.6385259
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 46642.9556944
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4443359935
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4476659935
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 46537.8632832
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15626.5633755
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15615.9560352
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.240249
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -1.037157
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: base
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 16079.1423285
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 16067.4914629
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 16040.6092671
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5369.9656948
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5366.0746447
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.088129
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.291472
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 4933.7037009
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 4930.0285165
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 4923.1761417
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1647.7134838
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1646.4860791
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.0278
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.079633
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 282.6191504
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 282.4051328
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 282.0655069
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3865731
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3150974
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.001619
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.004188
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

warning

Do not compare parent share compensation expense with full group issuance where subsidiary shares/NCI also differ. Parent credit fraction .72 is a declared proxy.

bond_2026_reverified

内容を開く

original_primary_prospectus_URL

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/ASE%20Technology%20Holding%20Co.%2C%20Ltd.%20-%20Offering%20Memorandum.ashx?App=Prospectus&FileID=70711

発行済み

2026-08-10

conversion_start

2026-11-11

contract_last_conversion

2031-07-31

forecast_conversion_date

2031-07-24

contract_maturity_date

2031-08-10

2029_holder_put

2029-08-10

dividend_adjustment_formula

NCP=OCP*(M-C)/M with cumulative 1% threshold, rounding at two decimals

prevailing_fx

contract spot fixing 11am Taipei time at rate calculation date five business days before USD amount due

USD_cash

USD original principal * 32.3880 / settlement prevailing TWD per USD

2031_maturity_cash_settlement_date_assumed

2031-08-11 due weekend, not company confirmed

equity_option_double_credit

いいえ

initial_option_or_embedded_derivative_classification_verified

いいえ

estimated_CB_book_2026_09_30_central_oku

272.16

book_range_oku

1: 220
2: 315

cash_dividend_and_option_closed_period_must_be_rechecked

はい

debt_2026_q3_missing_component_rolling

内容を開く

report_date

2026-09-30

reported_total_interest_debt_oku

4064.61

visible_component_oku

内容を開く

short_term: 704.28
LT_current: 51.41
LT_bond: 422.01
LT_loans_bills: 2766.33

unidentified_component_oku

120.58

classification_primary_not_confirmed

はい

within_total_not_added_again

はい

forecast_unknown_bucket_constant_oku

120.58

continuity_checked_all_periods

はい

recomputed_prior_to_release

はい

v3_calendar_boundary_correction

内容を開く

result: all scenarios rerun from day-level assumptions including financing and share dates
as_of_2026_11_06_closing_before_post_valuation_earning: はい
q4_2026_days_total: 92
prevaluation_2026_10_01_to_11_06_inclusive_days: 37
postvaluation_2026_11_07_to_12_31_inclusive_days: 55
initial_stub_fraction: 0.597826086957
middle_2027_to_2035_days: 3287
terminal_2036_01_01_to_11_06_inclusive_days: 311
terminal_stub_fraction: 0.849726775956
sum_days: 3653
last_2036_horizon_day_included: はい
first_2026_11_06_horizon_day_excluded: はい
2036_11_07_to_12_31_post_horizon_days_excluded: 55
2036_TTM_parent_NI_formula: NI_FY2035*55/365 + NI_2036_Jan1_to_Nov6_311days
2037_NI_and_reinvestment: Use 2036-11-06 last 12-month NI -> 2037 12 month-equivalent forward (1+g), minus growth reinvestment and expected 2037 market buyback compensation; no 311-day horizon NI incorrectly used as full-year.

v3_vs_v2_quantitative_reconciliation

内容を開く

baseline_version

ASE 3711 timed holder v2

revised_version

ASE 3711 timed holder v3 day boundaries

理由

v2 period includes Nov6 twice in pre+post and excludes final Nov6; v3 starts Nov7, ends Nov6 inclusive

old_price_TWD

203.231633

new_price_TWD

203.281724

price_change_TWD

0.050091

old_weighted_PV_oku

8972.9844841

new_weighted_PV_oku

8975.1960536

old_expected_IRR

0.001959213

new_expected_IRR

0.001989287

initial_stub

previous_days: 56
corrected_days: 55
q4_total_days: 92

final_stub

previous_days: 310
corrected_days: 311
leap_year_total_days: 366

net_total_calendar_days

3653

per_case_recalculation

内容を開く

scenario: bull
prob: 12.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 4494.495804
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 4508.994177
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 3512.681904
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 3524.02342
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 36.020478
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 36.136673
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 17862.156242
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 17871.1495343
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 1653.8434684
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 1653.8434684
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 8678.137919
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 8670.2433636
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 731.3992156
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 731.5330048
ending_shares_old: 4439684255
ending_shares_new: 4439659935
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 3405.7012459
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 3407.2486124
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 804.4397263
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 804.8092309
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 40.5136196
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 40.5322489
holder_dividends_old_oku: 7504.8504629
holder_dividends_new_oku: 7504.8904338
holder_terminal_old_oku: 46395.644612
holder_terminal_new_oku: 46416.9785502
holder_PV_old_oku: 19481.290586
holder_PV_new_oku: 19488.4943828
one_share_value_old_TWD: 441.2371946
one_share_value_new_TWD: 441.4003554
IRR_old: 0.09364522
IRR_new: 0.09368973

内容を開く

scenario: mild_bull
prob: 23.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 2928.262186
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 2937.708193
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 2207.648882
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 2214.781008
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 28.296515
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 28.387794
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 13451.7865846
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 13456.6525942
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 1299.2055925
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 1299.2055925
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 8685.6110403
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 8679.8651454
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 648.3505916
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 648.4161249
ending_shares_old: 4452010333
ending_shares_new: 4452002762
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 2150.7047351
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 2151.481658
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 500.2472499
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 500.4304903
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 23.1247323
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 23.1331253
holder_dividends_old_oku: 6223.7863431
holder_dividends_new_oku: 6223.8260069
holder_terminal_old_oku: 26661.2342282
holder_terminal_new_oku: 26670.9107175
holder_PV_old_oku: 12311.9335769
holder_PV_new_oku: 12315.2126892
one_share_value_old_TWD: 278.8564242
one_share_value_new_TWD: 278.9306937
IRR_old: 0.03831333
IRR_new: 0.03834599

内容を開く

scenario: base
prob: 40.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 1950.475848
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 1956.767706
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 1413.144223
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 1417.713792
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 23.109535
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 23.184082
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 10710.768687
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 10713.1117046
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 1061.0506785
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 1061.0506785
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 7437.0798544
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 7432.3542565
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 584.5045243
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 584.5221557
ending_shares_old: 4450651493
ending_shares_new: 4450651493
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 1414.5784355
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 1414.9645249
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 284.8420602
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 284.9211997
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 13.7243865
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 13.7281324
holder_dividends_old_oku: 5045.8382882
holder_dividends_new_oku: 5045.875438
holder_terminal_old_oku: 15946.536911
holder_terminal_new_oku: 15950.8892955
holder_PV_old_oku: 8184.8245976
holder_PV_new_oku: 8186.309966
one_share_value_old_TWD: 185.3803796
one_share_value_new_TWD: 185.4140221
IRR_old: -0.0113389
IRR_new: -0.01131582

内容を開く

scenario: mild_bear
prob: 18.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 829.027562
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 831.701844
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 465.480187
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 466.996586
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 16.880399
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 16.934852
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 8486.8880965
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 8486.1965099
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 775.0462939
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 775.0462939
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 6547.8095525
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 6545.4413816
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 482.0044056
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 481.9601791
ending_shares_old: 4450651493
ending_shares_new: 4450651493
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 483.4815535
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 483.5029627
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 90.4172768
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 90.4214483
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 4.1711223
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 4.171307
holder_dividends_old_oku: 1816.9469726
holder_dividends_new_oku: 1816.9803881
holder_terminal_old_oku: 4894.1339834
holder_terminal_new_oku: 4894.3507024
holder_PV_old_oku: 2768.7141338
holder_PV_new_oku: 2768.8042901
one_share_value_old_TWD: 62.7093801
one_share_value_new_TWD: 62.7114221
IRR_old: -0.12865338
IRR_new: -0.12864959

内容を開く

scenario: bear
prob: 7.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 271.210195
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 272.085067
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 8.663848
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 8.70968
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 12.216774
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 12.256183
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 6535.0144919
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 6532.8826965
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 700
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 700
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 5647.8130194
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 5646.2014264
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 417.6516574
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 417.5731038
ending_shares_old: 4450651493
ending_shares_new: 4450651493
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 30.0401375
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 29.9576299
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 2.0157836
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 2.0044435
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 0.2377198
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 0.2370669
holder_dividends_old_oku: 489.4139673
holder_dividends_new_oku: 489.434328
holder_terminal_old_oku: 281.1370426
holder_terminal_new_oku: 280.3648782
holder_PV_old_oku: 445.5215419
holder_PV_new_oku: 445.27215
one_share_value_old_TWD: 10.0907419
one_share_value_new_TWD: 10.0850934
IRR_old: -0.34548803
IRR_new: -0.34564692

source_confirmed_unchanged_from_v2

The Oct 29 2026 Q3 SEC Form 6-K historical figures stay unchanged; calendar correction affects model estimates only.

追加データ・検証記録

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分析に使用した資料

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