AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
CTBC Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
2891 · TWD · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
銀行・保険の競争力と規制資本を踏まえた普通株の10年評価
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
預金・決済・カード事業と生命保険を持つ金融グループです。普通株に帰属する利益と優先株・非支配持分を分け、保険の評価損益、規制資本、子会社から持株会社に上がる現金、株式報酬による希薄化を考慮します。2026年11月6日普通株終値は73.40台湾ドル。株式数は同日の台湾証券取引所資料で確認しましたが、信託等の配当権は未確認です。基準日時点の財務と将来の利益・配当・資本規制はシナリオ上の推計で、将来の収益を保証しません。現地源泉税、ETF経費、為替変動は含みません。
事業
台湾の銀行、決済・カード、生命保険を中心とした金融持株会社です。
競争力・事業の質
預金・カード基盤が強みですが、信用損失、生命保険の市場変動と資本規制が配当余力に影響します。
業界と環境
銀行と保険の市場環境、規制、投資資産と保険負債の評価を継続して確認します。
財務・資本配分
親会社と子会社の資本・現金を分け、優先株と非支配持分を普通株に帰属する価値から区別します。
評価の前提と確認
連結現金やOCI評価益をそのまま配当可能額とせず、普通株主への持続可能な還元を複数ケースで評価します。
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 10.50%
- nominal_currency
TWD
- basis
hypothetical discount hurdle not company WACC and not USD/JPY ETF return
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 強気 | 10.0% | 8,578.31 | 15,655.01 |
| やや強気 | 20.0% | 6,813.21 | 10,769.62 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 5,506.68 | 7,503.58 |
| やや弱気 | 20.0% | 2,979.09 | 3,851.48 |
| 危機 | 10.0% | 662.26 | 1,480.40 |
危機（確率 10.0%）
信用損失と評価損が大きく、配当抑制や資本調達による希薄化が生じるケース。
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-08-09
- year
- 5.757700205
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 45
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-11-20
- year
- 6.039698836
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 30000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 46
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-12-31
- year
- 6.151950719
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 47
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-03-31
- year
- 6.39835729
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_shares
- 266565317
- issuer_gross_proceeds_oku
- 85.300901451
- assumed_subscription_price_twd
- 32
- old_cohort_did_not_subscribe
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 48
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-06-15
- year
- 6.606433949
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 125.620055
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2032
- 49
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-07-11
- year
- 6.67761807
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 26921255302
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2032
- 50
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-08-08
- year
- 6.754277892
- 金額
- 91.811906003
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 125.620055
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.73086981217173
- ex_date_assumed
2033-07-11
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2032
- ex_date
2033-07-11
- 51
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-08-08
- year
- 6.754277892
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 52
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-11-20
- year
- 7.039014374
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 30000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 53
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-12-31
- year
- 7.151266256
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 54
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-03-31
- year
- 7.397672827
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_shares
- 261654089
- issuer_gross_proceeds_oku
- 83.729308494
- assumed_subscription_price_twd
- 32
- old_cohort_did_not_subscribe
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 55
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-06-15
- year
- 7.605749487
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
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- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 133.120055
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2033
- 56
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-07-10
- year
- 7.674195756
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 27212909391
- review_required
- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2033
- 57
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
- year
- 7.750855578
- 金額
- 96.250688218
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 133.120055
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.72303672214142
- ex_date_assumed
2034-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2033
- ex_date
2034-07-10
- 58
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
- year
- 7.750855578
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 59
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-11-20
- year
- 8.038329911
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 30000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 60
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-12-31
- year
- 8.150581793
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 61
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-04-02
- year
- 8.402464066
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- new_shares
- 250262274
- issuer_gross_proceeds_oku
- 80.083927749
- assumed_subscription_price_twd
- 32
- old_cohort_did_not_subscribe
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 62
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-06-15
- year
- 8.605065024
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 138.120055
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 63
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-07-10
- year
- 8.673511294
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
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- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- 64
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 98.847850457
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 138.120055
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.71566616779425
- ex_date_assumed
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- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2034
- ex_date
2035-07-10
- 65
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
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- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 66
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-11-20
- year
- 9.037645448
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- review_required
- はい
- 67
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-12-31
- year
- 9.149897331
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 68
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-03-31
- year
- 9.399041752
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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forecast_assumption
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- 66.855844688
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- 32
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- はい
- review_required
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- 69
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-06-16
- year
- 9.609856263
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- 0
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- 145.620055
- review_required
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- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 70
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-07-10
- year
- 9.675564682
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_ex_dividend_shares_entitled
- 27732096180
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- はい
- old_cohort_shares_entitled
- 19675932806
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- 71
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 103.317484506
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_total_cash_dividend_oku
- 145.620055
- old_cohort_ownership_at_ex
- 0.70950038101303
- ex_date_assumed
2036-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2035
- ex_date
2036-07-10
- 72
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
forecast_assumption
- cashflow_beneficiary
old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 73
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-10-20
- year
- 9.954825462
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- new_common_shares
- 30000000
- company_grant_is_no_cash_but_dilutes_existing_holders
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 74
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-11-06
- year
- 10.001368925
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
mandatory_terminal_assumption_reset_and_valuation
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forecast_assumption
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その他の数値・前提
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bear
- name_ja
危機
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all_hypothetical_forecasts
- parameters
内容を開く
- prob
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- label_ja
危機
- ni_2027
- -150
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- 0.006
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- 0.017
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- -1650
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- credit_rate
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- 30
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- 1480.3985996
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timed_holder_cashflows_v1
- annual_ledger
内容を開く
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内容を開く
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2026_postcutoff_55d
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2026-11-07
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2026-12-31
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initial_partial
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hypothetical_forecast_not_company_guidance
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- 72.539726027
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- 1.886542192
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- 70.653183836
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- 1.160635616
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- 73.700361644
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- 18.425090411
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- 19.897319863
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- -2.125086986
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- 0
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- 1.95890411
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- 1.95890411
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- 17.772232877
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- -5.005241096
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- 7456.478110685
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- 7156.841430685
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- 299.63668
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- 301.573543151
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- 70
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- 67.739726027
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- 0
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- 2.260273973
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- 1356.12611
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- 1403.927646878
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- 1640.582625989
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- 8793.769568178
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-11-10
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unconfirmed_october_monthly_results_recheck
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forecast_assumption
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内容を開く
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2026-11-18
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unconfirmed_q3_financials_recheck
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-12-15
- year
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2026-12-31
- year
- 0.150581793
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- 種類
year_end_capital_regulatory_review
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
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内容を開く
- year
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- period_id
2027_full_year
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2027-01-01
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-03-31
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hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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内容を開く
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2027-06-15
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-07-12
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-08-09
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-08-09
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内容を開く
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2027-11-20
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2027-12-31
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内容を開く
- year
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2028-01-01
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2028-12-31
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-03-31
- year
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- 金額
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hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-06-15
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-07-10
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-08-07
- year
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hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-08-07
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-11-20
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2028-12-31
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year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
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内容を開く
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2029-01-01
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2029-12-31
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- 287.66422
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-04-02
- year
- 2.403832991
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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- 112.844538806
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- 32
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- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-06-15
- year
- 2.606433949
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 49.370055
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- 2028
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-07-10
- year
- 2.674880219
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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forecast_assumption
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- 2028
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-08-07
- year
- 2.751540041
- 金額
- 38.975946341
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2029-07-10
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-08-07
- year
- 2.751540041
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 12.51978
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-11-20
- year
- 3.039014374
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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- review_required
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- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2029-12-31
- year
- 3.151266256
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
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内容を開く
- year
- 2030
- period_id
2030_full_year
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2030-01-01
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2030-12-31
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full_year
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- 430
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- 12.51978
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- 417.48022
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- 6.88
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- 109.22
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- 546.1
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- 2.408
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- 15
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- 89.370055
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- 739.498684456
- estimated_parent_liquidity_dividend_capacity_oku
- 329.85622
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-04-01
- year
- 3.400410678
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
- date_status
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- 319822984
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- 102.34335497
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- 32
- old_cohort_did_not_subscribe
- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-06-17
- year
- 3.611225188
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- forecast_company_total_common_dividend_oku
- 89.370055
- review_required
- はい
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2029
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-07-10
- year
- 3.674195756
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- はい
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- 19675932806
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- 2029
- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-08-07
- year
- 3.750855578
- 金額
- 69.577956908
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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- 0.77853769820278
- ex_date_assumed
2030-07-10
- dividend_fiscal_year
- 2029
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-08-07
- year
- 3.750855578
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-11-20
- year
- 4.038329911
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
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- 30000000
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- はい
- review_required
- はい
- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2030-12-31
- year
- 4.150581793
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
- review_required
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- year
- 2031
- period_id
2031_full_year
- 開始日
2031-01-01
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2031-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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- 365
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- 4.1533196440794
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- 5.1498973305955
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- parent_attributable_net_income_before_preferred_claim_oku
- 475
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- 12.51978
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- 462.48022
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- 7.6
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- 482.6
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- 120.65
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- 603.25
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- 2356.616984167
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- 971.128351665
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- 130.55625
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- -14.18125
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- -539
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- -11
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- 14.565369983
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- 363.375
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- 35.625
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- -32.775
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- 7630.712639461
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- 7788.641390063
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- 7489.004710063
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- 299.63668
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- 264.877543151
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- 258.817543151
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- 2.66
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- 60
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- 60
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- 324.253215619
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- 131.889835
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- 15
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- 3621.808075027
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- 361.50022
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-03-31
- year
- 4.396988364
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
- date_status
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 324.253215619
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- 32
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- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-06-16
- year
- 4.607802875
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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- 104.370055
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- 2030
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-07-10
- year
- 4.673511294
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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- 4
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-08-07
- year
- 4.750171116
- 金額
- 78.034675236
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2031-07-10
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- 2030
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-08-07
- year
- 4.750171116
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
- date_status
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- 12.51978
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- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-11-20
- year
- 5.037645448
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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forecast_assumption
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- review_required
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- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2031-12-31
- year
- 5.149897331
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 7
内容を開く
- year
- 2032
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2032_full_year
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2032-01-01
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2032-12-31
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full_year
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- 115.620055
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- 1037.615832637
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- 389.62822
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-03-31
- year
- 5.399041752
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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- 89.108312088
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- 32
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- はい
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- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-06-15
- year
- 5.607118412
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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- 115.620055
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- はい
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- 2031
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-07-12
- year
- 5.681040383
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-08-09
- year
- 5.757700205
- 金額
- 85.444466564
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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- 115.620055
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- 0.73901077597843
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2032-07-12
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- 2031
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-08-09
- year
- 5.757700205
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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old_ordinary_cohort
- issuer_preferred_cash_paid_oku
- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-11-20
- year
- 6.039698836
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- 30000000
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- はい
- review_required
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- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2032-12-31
- year
- 6.151950719
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- 8
内容を開く
- year
- 2033
- period_id
2033_full_year
- 開始日
2033-01-01
- 終了日
2033-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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- 545
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- 12.51978
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- 532.48022
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- 8.72
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- 553.72
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- 138.43
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- 692.15
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- 982.816852506
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- 146.84875
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- -13.32375
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- 3.052
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- 60
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- 85.300901451
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- 0
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- 853.196421476
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-03-31
- year
- 6.39835729
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-06-15
- year
- 6.606433949
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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- 125.620055
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- 2032
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-07-11
- year
- 6.67761807
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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- 2032
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-08-08
- year
- 6.754277892
- 金額
- 91.811906003
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2033-07-11
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- 2032
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-08-08
- year
- 6.754277892
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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- 12.51978
- preferred_BC_claim_not_old_common_cash
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- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-11-20
- year
- 7.039014374
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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- はい
- review_required
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- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2033-12-31
- year
- 7.151266256
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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- 9
内容を開く
- year
- 2034
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2034_full_year
- 開始日
2034-01-01
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2034-12-31
- period_class
full_year
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- 565
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- 12.51978
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- -13.07875
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- -176.4
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- 8434.114389178
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- 3.164
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-03-31
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- 金額
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hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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- 2
内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-06-15
- year
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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- 2033
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-07-10
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- 0
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
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- 金額
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hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-08-07
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- 0
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-11-20
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2034-12-31
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- 金額
- 0
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year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
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forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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内容を開く
- year
- 2035
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2035_full_year
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2035-01-01
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2035-12-31
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full_year
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-04-02
- year
- 8.402464066
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-06-15
- year
- 8.605065024
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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- 138.120055
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- 2034
- 3
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-07-10
- year
- 8.673511294
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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- 2034
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 98.847850457
- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2035-07-10
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- 2034
- 5
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-08-07
- year
- 8.750171116
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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- 12.51978
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- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-11-20
- year
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2035-12-31
- year
- 9.149897331
- 金額
- 0
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year_end_bank_insurance_regulatory_and_dividend_review
- date_status
forecast_assumption
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old_ordinary_cohort
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- はい
- 11
内容を開く
- year
- 2036
- period_id
2036_to_2036-11-06_311d
- 開始日
2036-01-01
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2036-11-06
- period_class
terminal_partial
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- 0.84972677595628
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内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-03-31
- year
- 9.399041752
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_new_paid_in_common_issue_dilutes_old_cohort
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-06-16
- year
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- 金額
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hypothetical_dividend_declaration_and_approval
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forecast_assumption
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- 145.620055
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- 2035
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-07-10
- year
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- 0
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hypothetical_common_ex_dividend_rights_cutoff
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
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- 種類
hypothetical_common_dividend_cash_to_original_holders
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2036-07-10
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内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-08-07
- year
- 9.752224504
- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_preferred_dividend_payment_to_non_common_holders
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- はい
- 6
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-10-20
- year
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- 金額
- 0
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hypothetical_restricted_employee_stock_grant_no_holder_cash
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- review_required
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- 7
内容を開く
- 想定日
2036-11-06
- year
- 10.001368925
- 金額
- 0
- 種類
mandatory_terminal_assumption_reset_and_valuation
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forecast_assumption
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内容を開く
- 方法
2037_sustainable_regulatory_distributable_owner_cash_capitalized_not_PE
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- 2037_regulatory_profit_recognition_ratio_assumed
- 0.75
- 2037_eligible_sbc_equity_credit_proxy_oku
- 8.347286647
- 2037_group_eligible_capital_required_growth_oku
- 96.358751292
- 2037_management_liquidity_contingency_buffer_oku
- 125
- 2037_preferred_share_prior_cash_claim_oku
- 12.51978
- 2037_group_regulatory_distributable_after_preferred_oku
- 235.718755355
- 2037_bank_sustainable_upstream_oku
- 317.475481268
- 2037_life_sustainable_upstream_oku
- 27.403695686
- 2037_other_sustainable_upstream_oku
- 16.8
- 2037_subsidiary_upstream_cash_cap_after_holdco_expenses_preferred_oku
- 334.159396954
- 2037_sustainable_company_total_common_cash_oku
- 235.718755355
- 2037_forecast_new_restricted_grant_common_shares
- 30000000
- 2037_restricted_grant_assumed_date_after_first_2037_dividend
2037-11-20
- 2037_forecast_new_public_common_issue_proceeds_oku
- 77.41774666
- 2037_forecast_new_public_common_issue_shares
- 241930458
- 2037_public_issue_assumed_date_before_first_2037_dividend
2037-03-31
- 2036_11_06_total_common_shares
- 27762096180
- 2037_common_shares_at_august_dividend
- 28004026638
- 2037_common_shares_after_assumed_grant
- 28034026638
- initial_old_holder_common_shares
- 19675932806
- old_cohort_ownership_on_2037_payment
- 0.702610845
- 2037_cash_to_2026_11_06_old_ordinary_cohort_oku
- 165.618553768
- company_cash_per_share_2037_twd
- 0.84173165
- first_postterminal_assumed_cash_date
2037-08-07
- time_years_terminal_to_first_cash
- 0.750171116
- long_run_annual_company_distributable_cash_growth_assumed
- 0
- long_run_annual_new_common_share_dilution_pct
- 0.979502615
- long_run_annual_old_cohort_per_share_cash_growth_adjusted_for_dilution
- -0.009700014
- terminal_required_return_twd
- 0.105
- terminal_cash_yield_spread
- 0.114700014
- terminal_2036_11_06_old_cohort_value_oku
- 1480.3985996
- terminal_2036_11_06_old_cohort_per_initial_share_twd
- 7.523905546
- terminal_formula
2037 old-cohort cash AFTER assumed 2037 public-issue-before-ex / (k - ((1+g_company)/(1+SBC_and_paid_issue_future_annual_rate)-1)) * (1+k)^(1-days_until_first_payment/365.25); separate 2037 SBC grant happens AFTER first dividend; NI already SBC-expensed, eligible SBC capital credit once, recurring per-share dilution once
- 注記
SBC compensation expense remains in parent NI; issuer capital eligibility gets separate capital-settlement credit. New common shares reduce old-holder fraction; no imaginary issuer buyback funding of grants.
- present_value_of_actual_old_holder_distributions_oku
- 345.555802716
- present_value_of_terminal_old_holding_oku
- 545.376632089
- fair_value_oku_at_assumed_discount
- 890.932434805
- fair_value_twd_per_initial_common_share
- 4.528031497
- scenario_owner_IRR_at_market_price
- -0.18559395
- current_market_price_twd
- 73.4
- equity_issuance_total_new_paid_common_shares
- 7781642826
- employee_grants_total_new_common_shares
- 304520548
- future_share_buybacks_assumed_zero
- はい
- old_holder_tenders_assumed_zero
- はい
- initial_value_cohort_oku
- 14442.134679604
- terminal_years_from_cutoff
- 10.001368925
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 73.4
- 株数
- 19675932806
- shares_are_proxy_as_of_cutoff
- はい
- share_class
TWSE_2891_ordinary_common_not_pref_B_C
- initial_ordinary_cohort_market_cap_oku
- 14442.134679604
- old_holder_cohort
all common shares issued on 2026-11-06; registered shares including restricted/employee trusts treated as economic proxy with dividend rights; trust entitlements and exact cutoff share count not independently checked
- 株価の出所
台湾証券取引所2026-11-06日報、普通株2891終値73.40 TWD
- 株数の出所
台湾証券取引所2026-11-06外国人投資可能枠表の普通株19,675,932,806株。配当権を持たない信託等の有無は未確認のため株主コホートの代理値。
検証上の留意点
- 1
53-to-? events are scenario-specific. All net_sum, payout, mcap are in 億 TWD. Verified by separate validator.
- 2
Initial 2026 period covers 55 dates; 2036 ending period covers 311 dates. Exactly 3653 future cash days.
- 3
Monthly 9M income is unaudited; 2026 Oct-Nov profit, OCI, share price denominator at cutoff and all forecasts are estimates.
- 4
Statement cash on parent stand-alone June 30 is only 68.52 oku, while group cash 1,356.13 oku; not interchangeable.
- 5
No declared 2027 or later common dividend as of 2026-11-06; 2027–36 ex/pay/declaration are scenario assumptions, not established rights.
- 6
2026 granted employee shares timing beyond June 12 AGM authorization unknown; assumed zero-cash 2026-12-15 issuance is unconfirmed.
- 7
Cashflow event amount zero retains non-cash restricted grant, capital issue, approvals, ex dates, report review, solvency checks.
- 8
Realized insurer investment FVPL is accounted inside net earnings, not added again. OCI included only in reserve/capital mark.
- 9
Terminal 2037 NI is annual; 2036 311-day income is not treated as full-year perpetuity.
- 10
Larger conservative group/local ratio targets in model are discretionary risk buffers, NOT the actual legal minimum.
- 11
Group capital proxy reflects filters and non-wholly-distributable earnings; local bank and insurer proxies are not Basel CET1 or Taiwan life TIS.
- 12
The exact original paid-in common count as-of Nov 6, employee trust rights and pre-cutoff executed buyback count are NOT separately proven by exchange capital-action ledger.
追加データ・検証記録
分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。