AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

Delta Electronics, Inc. / 台達電子工業股份有限公司

2308 · TWD · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

台達電子：電源・インフラ需要と投資を踏まえた10年評価

10年期待年率2.51%

資本コスト9.00%

直近終値1,055.00 TWD2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

会社Q3決算と台湾証取終値を起点に、電源・インフラ事業を5シナリオで評価。Q3財務は一部未レビューに伴う限定付レビュー、基準日の株数は代理値で、台湾ETFの実効源泉税は未反映。配当・買戻し・将来の成長は予測です。

要約の補足

research_cutoff: 2026-11-06 Taiwan market close; 2026-11-06 after_close_news isolated as nonprice_known
price_verified_2026_11_06: はい
insight: 9M2026で高成長・営業利益増。評価は親会社持分だけ、タイ子会社NCI利益を二重計上せずに要再投資を織込む。
asof_company_data: 2026-10-28 reviewed 2026 3Q IFRS; 2026-10-29 IR conference
analysis_edge_dates: 2026-11-07 to 2036-11-06 inclusive=3653 modeled days, with first55 and last311
historical_dividend: 2026-06-17 ex, 2026-07-22 pay, before asof; not included again
known_dividend_entitlement_asof: 未確認
known_dividend_entitlement_asof_reason: No confirmed unpaid post-2026-11-06 parent ordinary dividend identified in 2026Q3 filing; later years unapproved.
ETF_Taiwan_effective_local_withholding: 未確認
ETF_Taiwan_tax_treatment: fund-specific local effective withholding under EWT not confirmed; all holder valuations pre-local withholding; do not model US/Japan personal tax.
verified_vs_proxy_vs_forecast: 2026Q3 reporting actual, Nov6 stock close verified, November balances and shares proxy, events and future cash all explicit forecast.
late_2026_11_06_news: Guanyin plant MOPS disclosure at 17:08 local 2026-11-06 is after TWSE close; omitted from closing information set and treated as next-recheck gate.

結論の補足

recommendation: 金融価値からの合理性を検証。AI成長プレミアムと設備投資・非支配持分に厳格。
stance: scenario_weighted_discounted_old_holder_equity_value_vs_TWSE_market
asof_close_twd: 1055
initial_marketcamp_oku: 27404.08212095
expected_pv_oku: 16216.360658567
expected_value_per_initial_share_twd: 624.29605995484
expected_value_premium_discount_to_market: -0.40825018013759
probability_weighted_cashflow_IRR_site_terminal_exact_t10: 0.02510385602409
probability_weighted_cashflow_IRR_actual_terminal_36525: 0.02510111002111
scenario_individual_IRR_probability_weighted_arithmetic_not_used_for_IRR: 0.00034476697419
coc_k: 0.09
model_fair_price_not_quoted_target: はい
key_uncertainty: 2036年以降AIラック向け電力・液冷成長の持続性とROE競争収斂を数値化。将来の株数・配当日はすべて予測。

事業

company: 製造設備向け電源変換・工業制御・データセンター用電源/冷却等。収益区分は4つのIFRS開示セグメント
9m2026_revenue_oku: 5396.67536
9m2026_revenue_yoy_growth: 0.37391277901976
9m2026_operating_margin: 0.16974798165365
9m2026_parent_ni_oku: 691.85826
data_center_cooling: 会社IR質疑では2026Q3冷却関連約250億TWD、同四半期売上約13%; 内部集計で監査セグメントではない。AI横断領域約50%はセグメント別売上と足さない。
source_company_qualitative: Q3 2026 management English translated transcript Oct29; liquid cooling suppliers power platform, ±400VDC high voltage DC early trials, SOFC pilot not assured.
quantity_price_mix_logic: segment growth=(1+physical_volume_growth)*(1+price_mix_growth)-1; model annual per-segment table contains both; no assured 10-year 2026AI CAGR.
working_capital: Inventories 1,682.02oku at Sep2026 versus1,014.78oku Dec2025; dynamic inventory execution, AR and capex are material.
capex: 9m2026 paid for PPE 448.78oku and intangibles7.93oku (not synonymous with IFRS D&A); future funded in each scenario.
major_customer_concentration: 未確認
major_customer_concentration_unconfirmed: No independently audited customer revenue percentage was established; do not invent explicit Nvidia/Meta share.
mna: 2026 9m includes acquisitions Noda RF 90.23pct stake, Delta Controls Germany 100pct; modeling no standalone speculative acquisition gain.
financing: DET Thailand subsidiary exchangeable bonds and options are on subsidiary equity/NCI, not 2308 newly issued parent common stock.

競争力・事業の質

strengths

1: 高効率電力変換IP・顧客認証・グローバル製造立地
2: AIラックのkW上昇と配電・液冷のクロスセル
3: 2026年前9か月親会社利益692億TWD、現金2090億TWD

risks

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1: NCI662億TWDとDET交換社債: 連結利益/キャッシュを母公司普通株に100%帰属させない
2: 9M2026棚卸資産1682億TWD、前年末から+667億TWD、供給停滞/評価損リスク
3: 設備投資の負担増、電力網/建設日程で検収遅延
4: 競合が液冷と電源に参入し17%前後の営業利益率を圧迫
5: 2026Q3レビューの限定結論: 一部子会社/持分法投資のレビュー未実施、監査意見と混同しない
6: 台湾ドル/米ドル・タイバーツ為替、米中輸出管理/関税
7: 2036 terminal ROE fadeや9%kという大きな主観パラメータ

business_moat

顧客承認・高出力電源設計・液冷統合のスイッチングコストは強みだが永久の独占利潤を認めず、競争でROEは18年かけてCoCへ収斂。

reported_IFRS_review_outcome

qualified_review_due_to_certain_unreviewed_nonsignificant_subsidiaries_and_associates

no_audit_misrepresentation

はい

業界と環境

data_center_power

1: AIアクセラレータのTDP増加→rack kW増大
2: 配電/高圧直流とAC-DC/DC-DCの効率改善
3: 顧客の内製化・原材料調達

cooling

1: 空冷から液冷への移行は設置サイト制約に左右
2: CDU/冷媒・保守標準化と信頼性保証
3: 電力網・施工人員の希少性

automation

1: 製造業景気・設備投資の循環
2: 長期保守サービス、製品差別化
3: ABB/Siemens/Omron/三菱など競合

mobility

1: EV車種ミックスと充電設備投資
2: 2026年9Mセグメント営業赤字約12.67億TWD

pricing_model

具体的な契約単価は非開示; annual price/mix growth is assumed, not reported unit ASP.

industry_demand_guarantees

none

財務・資本配分

reported_2026_Q3_IFRS

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日付: 2026-09-30
種類: reported_IFRS_reviewed_2026Q3
sales_9m_oku: 5396.67536
operating_profit_9m_oku: 916.07475
pretax_profit_9m_oku: 997.5893
income_tax_9m_oku: 226.9709
profit_total_9m_oku: 770.6184
parent_profit_9m_oku: 691.85826
nci_profit_9m_oku: 78.76014
assets_oku: 8356.60191
total_liabilities_including_operating_oku: 4512.30114
親会社持分（億）: 3181.97309
非支配持分資本（億）: 662.32768
cash_and_equivalents_oku: 2090.2269
short_borrowings_oku: 127.79441
current_maturities_long_debt_bonds_and_loans_oku: 264.61754
noncurrent_bonds_oku: 487.97334
noncurrent_long_borrowings_oku: 225.87185
lease_noncurrent_oku: 33.69703
paid_ppe_capex_9m_oku: 448.77977
paid_intangibles_9m_oku: 7.92646
nci_dividends_paid_9m_oku: 27.25886
issued_shares_report_2026Q3_thousands: 2597543
issued_shares_legal_register_exact: 2597543329
treasury_shares_2026Q3_proxy: 0
ordinary_shares_2026Q3_proxy: 2597543329
shares_diluted_2026_9m_employee_remuneration_potential_thousands: 4323
subsidiary_option_outstanding_shares_9m: 5096000
subsidiary_equity_settled_sbc_expense_9m_oku: 0.07926
employee_remuneration_accrued_9m_oku: 74.53931
2026_dividend_per_share_paid_twd: 11.6
2026_dividend_ex_date: 2026-06-17
2026_dividend_payment_date: 2026-07-22
2026_dividend_total_disclosed_oku: 301.315026164
interest_bearing_borrowings_ex_lease_oku: 1106.25714
net_cash_ex_lease_oku: 983.96976
non_interest_liabilities_incl_lease_oku: 3406.044

prior_dividend_ex_and_paid_not_eligible_cashflow

per_share_twd: 11.6
ex_date: 2026-06-17
pay_date: 2026-07-22

ordinary_parent_treasury_shares_2026_09_30_proxy

mother_company_potential_diluted_EPS_employee_remuneration_shares_9m_thousands

4323

employee_remuneration_stock_awards_actual_outstanding_not_automatically_issued

はい

subsidiary_stock_options_actual_outstanding_not_parent_ordinary

5096000

financial_debt_definition

Short loan + current portion bonds&loans + noncurrent bonds + long-term loans, excludes lease obligations, excludes suppliers & other trade liabilities.

2026_11_06_proxy_balance

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cash: 2166.6468924
debt: 1106.25714
parent_equity: 3293.8255683833
nci_equity: 675.07636139935
issuer_shares: 2597543329
old_shares: 2597543329
total_liabilities_other: 3406.044
other_noncash_assets: 6314.5561773826
company_assets: 8481.2030697826

nci_accounting

NCI net profit and NCI equity are kept outside parent profit/equity; NCI dividend paid only from group cash. Thai subsidiary exchangeable bond conversion amount 0 in core path, because no confirmed conversion event and double-counting risk.

debt_and_cash

entity-wide IFRS group cash and financing borrowings are reported as such, not mistakenly deemed entirely freely remittable to listed parent.

subsidiary_exchangeable_bonds

2026 new offshore USD bonds may be exchangable into DELTA THAILAND subsidiary equity, not 2308 common; record in group bonds/debt/NCI. No automatic parent diluted share change.

parent_sbc_treatment

Future hypothetical new stock grants expensed in period operating profit AND as noncash CFO addback + APIC equity credit; actual free issuance increases denominator. Issuer repurchases are actual cash and decrease equity/shares. No expense second deduction.

share_buyback_treatment

Proportional participation of ORIGINAL 2026 shareholders; cash proceeds received as timed positive cashflow, remaining original cohort shares and issuer shares are retired pro-rata, no double counting.

parent_equity_clean_surplus

opening + (parent IFRS NI after SBC) + parent SBC equity credit + cash new issuance + OCI - declared dividends - repurchase expense

nci_equity_clean_surplus

opening+NCI NI+subsidiary SBC equity credit - NCI dividends + NCI conversions. In scenarios all conversions 0 unless independently confirmed.

cash_identity

opening cash + GROUP NI + D&A + SBC noncash addback - delta operating WC - PP&E/intangible capex - parent&NCI dividend - issuer repurchase cash + new financial borrowing - debt cash repayment

total_company_asset_liability_plug

Other non-cash assets and operating liabilities after 2026Q3 are pro forma residuals only; no model-derived number is described as reported IFRS.

lease_liability_excluded_from_debt_proxies

Lease obligation tracked within other liabilities rather than interest-bearing bond/bank debt to avoid double subtraction; scenario debt excludes leases.

cash_and_equivalents_not_all_available_to_parent

Subsidiaries with NCI own some cash; valuation instead uses parent equity + parent earnings residual model.

no_unverified_postcutoff_dividend_asof

はい

評価の前提と確認

forbid_terminal_market_PER_PBR_mean_reversion

はい

terminal_market_PE_PB_multiplier_applied

いいえ

source_exchange_PE_is_only_crosscheck

31.68

terminal_valuation

18 future years of parent common distributable cash using ROE fade to nominal TWD CoC, net reinvestment g*book, and repurchase cost to neutralize SBC; mature value from return-on-capital=CoC, not 10x/15x/30x P/E

initial_price_value_oku

27404.08212095

no_terminal_plus_2037_dividend

2036-11-06 cum-right exit value includes future 2037 cashflows; seller does not also receive pre-ex-date 2037 dividend

initial_2026_dividend_removed

はい

sensitivity

k 8-10%, reinvestment fade and price of SBC neutralizing buyback stressed below in valuation sensitivities

discount_rate_sensitivity

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id: stress
discount_k: 0.08
whole_company_terminal_oku: 4855.302026732
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 4853.3903273232
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: stress
discount_k: 0.09
whole_company_terminal_oku: 4247.1248272838
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 4245.452588157
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: stress
discount_k: 0.1
whole_company_terminal_oku: 3727.1285863972
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 3725.661087676
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: bear
discount_k: 0.08
whole_company_terminal_oku: 10786.704662245
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 10781.664135198
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: bear
discount_k: 0.09
whole_company_terminal_oku: 9698.4696777249
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 9693.9376727932
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: bear
discount_k: 0.1
whole_company_terminal_oku: 8756.9946566323
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 8752.9025942463
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: base
discount_k: 0.08
whole_company_terminal_oku: 21758.943145614
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 21747.517671595
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: base
discount_k: 0.09
whole_company_terminal_oku: 19872.760069321
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 19862.32501729
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: base
discount_k: 0.1
whole_company_terminal_oku: 18224.859337661
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 18215.28958717
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: bull
discount_k: 0.08
whole_company_terminal_oku: 39108.520618324
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 39084.831155283
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: bull
discount_k: 0.09
whole_company_terminal_oku: 36035.083717899
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 36013.255948133
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: bull
discount_k: 0.1
whole_company_terminal_oku: 33330.723877615
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 33310.534237634
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: superbull
discount_k: 0.08
whole_company_terminal_oku: 81210.956138283
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 81151.858789713
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: superbull
discount_k: 0.09
whole_company_terminal_oku: 75188.446518314
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 75133.731760065
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

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id: superbull
discount_k: 0.1
whole_company_terminal_oku: 69865.116762899
same_original_holder_terminal_oku: 69814.275800613
valuation_sensitivity_changes_k_only: cashflow path and mature ROE held fixed for finite shock, not joint re-solving competitiveness
出典: analyst sensitivity

資本コストの前提

資本コスト: 9.00%
risk_free_nominal_TWD: 未確認
equity_risk_premium: 未確認
k_data_class: judgment_scenario_discount_hurdle_not_market_observation
risk_free_unconfirmed_reason: forward TWD sovereign curve maturity not separately sourced; integrated 9% model hurdle is a subjective stress benchmark
単位: decimal_nominal_TWD_after_corporate_tax_before_ETF_level_Taiwan_source_tax

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