Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd.

分析の要約

受託製造・AIサーバーの成長と設備投資、株式報酬、転換社債を5ケースで評価。2026年上期財務は一部の子会社などのレビューに限定があり、基準日株数は代理値です。2027年の転換社債売戻し権と2029年の転換・借換は予測。台湾でETFが負担する源泉税は未反映です。

要約の補足

investment_thesis

AIサーバー構成比上昇による売上成長は強い一方、ICT量産の低い営業利益率、顧客集中、在庫・売掛・現金循環、地政学と設備投資が親会社持分価値を左右する。

primary_risks

内容を開く

1

large_unnamed_US_smart_device_customer_concentration_exact_share_not_disclosed

2

AI_server_revenue_breakdown_and_AI_only_profit_margin_not_disclosed

3

high_inventory_receivables_and_seasonal_cash_conversion

4

US_localization_capex_and_semiconductor_supply_chain

5

bond_conversion_dilution_and_2317_treasury_count_uncertainty

6

NCI_and_equity_method_investments_not_equivalent_to_100pct_parent_cfs

7

Taiwan_country_ETF_USD_FX_and_tax_not_modelled

2026_11_06_price_vs_expected

Computed under explicit 11% TWD CoE and post-2026 hypotheticals; sensitivity to terminal sustainable investment and buybacks critical

2026Q3_results_after_cutoff_excluded

はい

auditor_2026_H1_review

reviewed with qualification; not a FY2026 audit

結論の補足

expected_intrinsic_per_share_twd

177.8014

twse_last_close

224.5

時価総額（億）

31601.93556102

probability_weighted_old_holder_pv_oku

25028.36416852

expected_cashflow_IRR

0.0783025432

cost_of_equity

0.11

状態

quantified_illustrative_scenario_model_not_investment_advice

事業

segments_and_revenue_definition

FY2026H1 note (31) product revenues, not profit segments: smart consumers, cloud/networking, computing, components & other

AI_server_sales_reported_separately_oku

未確認

AI_server_profit_margin_reported

未確認

large_key_customer_names_and_sales_weights_in_IFRS_product_note

未確認

Apple_exposure

substantial risk because smartphones and large US customers drive smart consumer cycle; precise Apple % not asserted as primary disclosed revenue

AI_server_profitability

No company audited AI-only op margin; lower-margin assembly/AI racks scenario is a risk inference, not a reported number

verified_order_backlog_by_product_2026Q2

未確認

orders_status

Company Q2 IR described direction of customer AI/server demand and 2027 capacity, not an audited per-client booked order backlog. No fabricated backlog quantity.

pricing_and_mix

Global OEM-EMS scale and procurement/engineering help but customer negotiating power and pass-through parts costs constrain margin

working_capital

receivables + inventory - accounts payable; net seasonal exposure depends on customer advances, seasonality, FX

investment_and_capex

US and other manufacturing localization, AI hardware capacity and R&D require cash capex and NWC upfront

separate_entity_financials_verified

未確認

separate_entity_financials_missing_reason

Only consolidated H1 issuer-reviewed statements were sufficiently retrieved for the pre-cutoff period; no unsupported parent-only revenue/net-asset figure fabricated

競争力・事業の質

accounting

2026 H1 consolidated, reviewed/qualified, SBC charged in IFRS operating expenses

earnings

profit driven by thin group op margin over immense revenue, can mask volatility

cashflow

2026H1 cash operations negative, seasonal WC and capex heavy; annual assumption not annualised mechanically

capital_allocation

FY2026 already ex-cash dividend; future board decisions uncertain

score_method

qualitative judgment without fabricated quantitative credit ratings

業界と環境

市場

global EMS, networking and server manufacturing

peers

Quanta, Wistron, Compal, Pegatron (comparative names only, not used in terminal multiple)

risk

AI-capex cycle and low-margin assembly balance

market_multiples_used_to_set_terminal

いいえ

財務・資本配分

IFRS_observed_H1_report_date

2026-06-30

親会社持分（億）

19079.36607

NCI_equity_oku

2116.50977

gross_interest_bearing_borrowings_ex_lease_oku

13045.30201

cash_and_equivalents_oku

9630.02077

current_amortized_cost_fin_assets_oku

5591.15211

leases_oku

418.38471

group_equity_method_investments_oku

2032.78997

parent_equity_only_for_old_holder_terminal

はい

gross_debt_not_subtracted_a_second_time_in_parent_equity_FCFE_DCF

はい

time_deposits_not_assumed_all_unrestricted_cash

はい

debt_maturities_2026_H1_filing

内容を開く

2016_USD400m_2026_09_23

prior to valuation; assumed refinanced in base bridge

2019_USD300m_2029_03_12

rollover assumption

2021_USD110m_2028_08_25

rollover assumption

2020_USD600m_2030_10_28

rollover assumption

2024_USD700m_convertible_2029_10_24

partial conversion in stronger cases and rollover of remaining carrying value

2025_EUR650m_2031_11_04

rollover assumption

2025_subsidiary_convertible_due_2028_02_27

NCI subsidiary issue not parent ordinary shares

sbc_past_observed_H1_expense_oku

14.13967

parent_new_shares_from_subsidiary_level_SBC_not_assumed

はい

known_2026_total_dividend_and_cash_timing

2026 June 30 equity already lower by declared NT$100.932bn; July31 pays previously booked dividend payable and reduces cash only, not equity again

2024_parent_convertible_compound_instrument_bridge

内容を開く

出典番号

1

s03

2

s16

状態

2026H1 total and 2024/2021/2025 issue-level convertible amounts DIRECTLY VERIFIED in issuer H1 Table 9 page 5; future amortization/2029 conversion/refinancing FORECAST

issue_date

2024-10-24

maturity_date

2029-10-24

contractual_end_of_conversion_period

2029-09-24

bondholder_three_year_put_recheck

2027-10-24

original_USD_principal

700000000

fixed_TWD_USD_contract_conversion_rate

32.186

TWD_face_value_oku

225.302

adjusted_conversion_price_2026_07_TWD

281.09

max_shares_at_2026_fixed_conversion_price

80152975.915

2026_H1_total_convertible_face_oku

237.11451

2026_H1_total_convertible_discount_oku

26.94551

2026_H1_total_convertible_net_carry_oku

210.169

2026_H1_non2024_remaining_face_oku

3.15151

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_estimated_oku

198.70737

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_VERIFIED_oku

198.70737

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_specific_discount_VERIFIED_oku

26.59463

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_face_VERIFIED_oku

8.661

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_discount_VERIFIED_oku

0.35088

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_carry_VERIFIED_oku

8.31012

2026_H1_2021bond_remaining_face_and_carry_VERIFIED_oku

3.15151

2026_Aug05_2021bond_prebasis_settlement_ASSUMPTION

June30 residual 3.15151oku TWD proxy repaid in cash on contractual 2026-08-05 maturity; unverified actual redemption/conversion

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_directly_disclosed

はい

discount_allocation_assumption

NONE. Issue-specific 2024 unamortised discount NT$2,659,463 thousand verified in H1 Table9; 2025 subsidiary bond NT$35,088 thousand discount; 2021 remaining note NT$315,151 thousand book=face. Future effective interest rate and no FX reset assumed.

other_convertible_carry_estimate_oku

11.46163

2026H1_direct_issue_liability_source_location

issuer 2026H1 report Appendix Table 9 Page 5 (229th PDF page, zero indexed 228)

2024_issue_original_equity_option_reserve_booked_in_parent_equity_oku

38.40462

2026H1_all_share_option_capital_reserve_oku

38.45982

option_2021_remainder_in_reserve_oku

0.0552

existing_equity_option_increment_on_any_future_conversion_oku

0

estimated_accrual_rate_to_2029_FX_constant_effective_interest

0.038579118709

effective_interest_treated_as_NONCASH_financing_expense_not_SBC

はい

2029_maturity_conversion_cases_assumptions

内容を開く

bull

60000000

upside

40000000

base

20000000

downside

0

bear

0

2029_conversion_date_assumed

2029-09-24

2029_end_of_conversion_window_source

SGX 2024 Offering Circular, period closes 30 calendar days prior to maturity; actual trading day and Closed Period to be reconfirmed

2029_conversion_debt_carry_at_conversion_date_IF_100pct_oku

224.60259667

2029_discount_after_last_conversion_date_to_maturity_IF_UNCONVERTED_oku

0.69940333

2029_no_new_cash_on_conversion

はい

2029_unconverted_principal_assumed_refinanced_at_face_same_day

はい

real_2029_put_exercise_conversion_price_FX_and_refinancing_unverified

はい

past_non_cash_conversion_2026_H1_2021_bond_USD346_7m_not_2024_bond

はい

2026_H1_non_cash_bond_conversion_liability_derecognition_NTthousand

9501121

2026_H1_non_cash_issued_share_par_NTthousand

700207

2026_H1_non_cash_share_premium_increment_NTthousand

8967336

2026_H1_existing_option_reserve_reversal_NTthousand

166422

issuer_accounting_2026_H1_2021_conversion_identity_NTthousand

9,501,121 liability + 166,422 pre-existing equity-option -> 700,207 par + 8,967,336 share premium

asof_debt_carry_2024cb_estimated_oku

201.38177001

audit_statement

book equity clean surplus includes ONLY debt carrying amount extinguished at conversion, never the preexisting option reserve again; stock issuance dilutes old cohort

評価の前提と確認

price*shares_oku

31601.93556102

price_source_verified_TWSE

はい

share_count_confirmed_exact_on_asof

いいえ

newer_sept30_secondary_share_proxy_used

はい

IFRS_reported_2026_H1_parent_profit_includes_SBC_cost

はい

profit_parent_excludes_NCI

はい

profits_from_equity_method_are_in_parent_earnings_no_separate_add_to_terminal

はい

no_company_cash_or_debt_added_to_parent_FCFE_value

はい

old_holder_proportional_tender_all_repurchases

はい

old_cohort_cash_received_only_on_actual_dividend_payment_and_buyback_proceeds

はい

SBC_noncash_addback_and_stock_neutralization_cost_each_once

はい

no_ex_date_before_asof_counted_in_future_payout

はい

no_ex_date_after_exit_paid_to_seller

はい

all_scenarios_equal_sized_old_2026_cohort

はい

full_2026_Q3_financial_results_excluded

はい

future_dividend_rights_are_forecast_and_recheck_pre_ex

はい

per_share_market_P/E_as_terminal_basis

いいえ

2024_cb_ifrs_compound_instrument_double_count_prevention

はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.00%

long_horizon_equity_cost

0.11

currency

TWD

real_or_nominal

nominal

derivation

TWD equity required return scenario assumption: mature Taiwanese equity base + concentration/customer/FX/Asia-Pacific supply-chain risks

not_observed_bond_yield

はい

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

金額の単位

oku_TWD

事業の詳細

segments_and_revenue_definition

FY2026H1 note (31) product revenues, not profit segments: smart consumers, cloud/networking, computing, components & other

AI_server_sales_reported_separately_oku

未確認

AI_server_profit_margin_reported

未確認

large_key_customer_names_and_sales_weights_in_IFRS_product_note

未確認

Apple_exposure

substantial risk because smartphones and large US customers drive smart consumer cycle; precise Apple % not asserted as primary disclosed revenue

AI_server_profitability

No company audited AI-only op margin; lower-margin assembly/AI racks scenario is a risk inference, not a reported number

verified_order_backlog_by_product_2026Q2

未確認

orders_status

Company Q2 IR described direction of customer AI/server demand and 2027 capacity, not an audited per-client booked order backlog. No fabricated backlog quantity.

pricing_and_mix

Global OEM-EMS scale and procurement/engineering help but customer negotiating power and pass-through parts costs constrain margin

working_capital

receivables + inventory - accounts payable; net seasonal exposure depends on customer advances, seasonality, FX

investment_and_capex

US and other manufacturing localization, AI hardware capacity and R&D require cash capex and NWC upfront

separate_entity_financials_verified

未確認

separate_entity_financials_missing_reason

Only consolidated H1 issuer-reviewed statements were sufficiently retrieved for the pre-cutoff period; no unsupported parent-only revenue/net-asset figure fabricated

競争力の詳細

accounting

2026 H1 consolidated, reviewed/qualified, SBC charged in IFRS operating expenses

earnings

profit driven by thin group op margin over immense revenue, can mask volatility

cashflow

2026H1 cash operations negative, seasonal WC and capex heavy; annual assumption not annualised mechanically

capital_allocation

FY2026 already ex-cash dividend; future board decisions uncertain

score_method

qualitative judgment without fabricated quantitative credit ratings

業界の詳細

市場

global EMS, networking and server manufacturing

peers

Quanta, Wistron, Compal, Pegatron (comparative names only, not used in terminal multiple)

risk

AI-capex cycle and low-margin assembly balance

market_multiples_used_to_set_terminal

いいえ

財務・資本配分の詳細

IFRS_observed_H1_report_date

2026-06-30

親会社持分（億）

19079.36607

NCI_equity_oku

2116.50977

gross_interest_bearing_borrowings_ex_lease_oku

13045.30201

cash_and_equivalents_oku

9630.02077

current_amortized_cost_fin_assets_oku

5591.15211

leases_oku

418.38471

group_equity_method_investments_oku

2032.78997

parent_equity_only_for_old_holder_terminal

はい

gross_debt_not_subtracted_a_second_time_in_parent_equity_FCFE_DCF

はい

time_deposits_not_assumed_all_unrestricted_cash

はい

debt_maturities_2026_H1_filing

内容を開く

2016_USD400m_2026_09_23

prior to valuation; assumed refinanced in base bridge

2019_USD300m_2029_03_12

rollover assumption

2021_USD110m_2028_08_25

rollover assumption

2020_USD600m_2030_10_28

rollover assumption

2024_USD700m_convertible_2029_10_24

partial conversion in stronger cases and rollover of remaining carrying value

2025_EUR650m_2031_11_04

rollover assumption

2025_subsidiary_convertible_due_2028_02_27

NCI subsidiary issue not parent ordinary shares

sbc_past_observed_H1_expense_oku

14.13967

parent_new_shares_from_subsidiary_level_SBC_not_assumed

はい

known_2026_total_dividend_and_cash_timing

2026 June 30 equity already lower by declared NT$100.932bn; July31 pays previously booked dividend payable and reduces cash only, not equity again

2024_parent_convertible_compound_instrument_bridge

内容を開く

出典番号

1

s03

2

s16

状態

2026H1 total and 2024/2021/2025 issue-level convertible amounts DIRECTLY VERIFIED in issuer H1 Table 9 page 5; future amortization/2029 conversion/refinancing FORECAST

issue_date

2024-10-24

maturity_date

2029-10-24

contractual_end_of_conversion_period

2029-09-24

bondholder_three_year_put_recheck

2027-10-24

original_USD_principal

700000000

fixed_TWD_USD_contract_conversion_rate

32.186

TWD_face_value_oku

225.302

adjusted_conversion_price_2026_07_TWD

281.09

max_shares_at_2026_fixed_conversion_price

80152975.915

2026_H1_total_convertible_face_oku

237.11451

2026_H1_total_convertible_discount_oku

26.94551

2026_H1_total_convertible_net_carry_oku

210.169

2026_H1_non2024_remaining_face_oku

3.15151

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_estimated_oku

198.70737

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_VERIFIED_oku

198.70737

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_specific_discount_VERIFIED_oku

26.59463

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_face_VERIFIED_oku

8.661

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_discount_VERIFIED_oku

0.35088

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_carry_VERIFIED_oku

8.31012

2026_H1_2021bond_remaining_face_and_carry_VERIFIED_oku

3.15151

2026_Aug05_2021bond_prebasis_settlement_ASSUMPTION

June30 residual 3.15151oku TWD proxy repaid in cash on contractual 2026-08-05 maturity; unverified actual redemption/conversion

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_directly_disclosed

はい

discount_allocation_assumption

NONE. Issue-specific 2024 unamortised discount NT$2,659,463 thousand verified in H1 Table9; 2025 subsidiary bond NT$35,088 thousand discount; 2021 remaining note NT$315,151 thousand book=face. Future effective interest rate and no FX reset assumed.

other_convertible_carry_estimate_oku

11.46163

2026H1_direct_issue_liability_source_location

issuer 2026H1 report Appendix Table 9 Page 5 (229th PDF page, zero indexed 228)

2024_issue_original_equity_option_reserve_booked_in_parent_equity_oku

38.40462

2026H1_all_share_option_capital_reserve_oku

38.45982

option_2021_remainder_in_reserve_oku

0.0552

existing_equity_option_increment_on_any_future_conversion_oku

0

estimated_accrual_rate_to_2029_FX_constant_effective_interest

0.038579118709

effective_interest_treated_as_NONCASH_financing_expense_not_SBC

はい

2029_maturity_conversion_cases_assumptions

内容を開く

bull

60000000

upside

40000000

base

20000000

downside

0

bear

0

2029_conversion_date_assumed

2029-09-24

2029_end_of_conversion_window_source

SGX 2024 Offering Circular, period closes 30 calendar days prior to maturity; actual trading day and Closed Period to be reconfirmed

2029_conversion_debt_carry_at_conversion_date_IF_100pct_oku

224.60259667

2029_discount_after_last_conversion_date_to_maturity_IF_UNCONVERTED_oku

0.69940333

2029_no_new_cash_on_conversion

はい

2029_unconverted_principal_assumed_refinanced_at_face_same_day

はい

real_2029_put_exercise_conversion_price_FX_and_refinancing_unverified

はい

past_non_cash_conversion_2026_H1_2021_bond_USD346_7m_not_2024_bond

はい

2026_H1_non_cash_bond_conversion_liability_derecognition_NTthousand

9501121

2026_H1_non_cash_issued_share_par_NTthousand

700207

2026_H1_non_cash_share_premium_increment_NTthousand

8967336

2026_H1_existing_option_reserve_reversal_NTthousand

166422

issuer_accounting_2026_H1_2021_conversion_identity_NTthousand

9,501,121 liability + 166,422 pre-existing equity-option -> 700,207 par + 8,967,336 share premium

asof_debt_carry_2024cb_estimated_oku

201.38177001

audit_statement

book equity clean surplus includes ONLY debt carrying amount extinguished at conversion, never the preexisting option reserve again; stock issuance dilutes old cohort

評価根拠の詳細

price*shares_oku

31601.93556102

price_source_verified_TWSE

はい

share_count_confirmed_exact_on_asof

いいえ

newer_sept30_secondary_share_proxy_used

はい

IFRS_reported_2026_H1_parent_profit_includes_SBC_cost

はい

profit_parent_excludes_NCI

はい

profits_from_equity_method_are_in_parent_earnings_no_separate_add_to_terminal

はい

no_company_cash_or_debt_added_to_parent_FCFE_value

はい

old_holder_proportional_tender_all_repurchases

はい

old_cohort_cash_received_only_on_actual_dividend_payment_and_buyback_proceeds

はい

SBC_noncash_addback_and_stock_neutralization_cost_each_once

はい

no_ex_date_before_asof_counted_in_future_payout

はい

no_ex_date_after_exit_paid_to_seller

はい

all_scenarios_equal_sized_old_2026_cohort

はい

full_2026_Q3_financial_results_excluded

はい

future_dividend_rights_are_forecast_and_recheck_pre_ex

はい

per_share_market_P/E_as_terminal_basis

いいえ

2024_cb_ifrs_compound_instrument_double_count_prevention

はい

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

224.5

株価基準日

2026-11-06

price_currency

TWD

price_exchange

TWSE

株価の出所

TWSE daily MI_INDEX official 2317 row

price_source_ids

1

s01

price_status

verified_primary

株数

14076585996

shares_status

2026_09_01_issued_less_2026_06_30_parent_treasury_PROXY_UNVERIFIED_2026_11_06

issued_shares_proxy

14078069074

issued_shares_proxy_asof

2026-09-30

issued_shares_2026_06_30_registered_proxy

14027166000

issued_including_unregistered_entitlements_2026_06_30_proxy

14071941000

treasury_parent_shares_proxy

1483078

treasury_parent_shares_asof

2026-06-30

株数の出所

Issuer FY2026H1 note 26 plus latest pre-cutoff 2026/09 historical capital-formation table (secondary); exact Nov6 TWSE/MOPS capital certificate unavailable

shares_source_ids

1

s03

2

s13

3

s15

shares_source_caution

2026/09 historical capital table includes 2,322,577 additional shares relative to Sep1 registration; neither the issuer original registered count on November6 nor whether the September step is matched by incremental 2026H2 debt-to-equity credit was directly validated; accounting bridge excludes unknown additional capital; share denominator is explicitly a proxy.

old_holder_cohort_shares

14076585996

old_holder_scope

all initially economically outstanding 2317 common shares, not just excluding existing employee ownership or GDR-held stock

initial_old_holder_purchase_cost_oku

31601.93556102

時価総額（億）

31601.93556102

2026_06_30_treasury_at_cost_book_oku

0.15194

2024_CB_conversion_option_equity_preexisting_as_of_2026H1_oku

38.40462

2024_CB_initial_bond_total_net_book_from_combined_note_oku

210.169

2024_CB_specific_liability_book_proxy_2026H1_oku

198.70737

2024_CB_specific_liability_book_DIRECTLY_VERIFIED_Table9_oku

198.70737

2026_06_30_registered_vs_economic_different_due_conversion_certificates

はい

alternative_if_only_Sep1_registration_used_old_economic_shares

14074263419

alternative_market_cap_oku

31596.72137566

2026_02_26_company_IR_shares_thousand

14074263

company_IR_page_data_stale_for_basis_date

はい

known_2026_dividend_per_share_TWD

7.17179227

known_2026_dividend_ex_date

2026-07-02

known_2026_dividend_paid_date

2026-07-31

known_2026_dividend_eligible_for_buyer_on_2026_11_06

いいえ

known_2026_total_dividend_oku

1009.31672888

share_count_reconfirmation_required_before_import

はい

specific_taiwan_withholding_effective_for_EWT

未確認

tax_model

gross_issuer_TWD_returns_before_any_Taiwan_withholding_or_US_Japan_investor_tax; NOT ETF NAV dividend flows

追加データ・検証記録

forecast_assumptions

内容を開く

observed_vs_forecast

2026 Jan-Oct monthly sales observed unaudited, 2026 H1 income and assets official reviewed; November 1-6 2026 sales and all second half NI/wc after June are scenario model

2026_pre_asof_2026_11_01_to_11_06_monthly_sales_est_oku

2000

2026_pre_asof_sales_estimate_oku

91750.92122

2026H1_consolidated_revenue_oku

46454.27824

2026_dividend_booked_in_H1_equity_and_cash_paid_pre_entry_without_double_equity_adjustment

はい

2026_June1_Nov6_asof_NCI_distribution_assumption

110.0億TWD annualized second-half proxy pro-rated Jul1–Nov6

2016_USD400m_issued_2016_09_23_due_2026_09_23_before_entry

June2026 debt carrying amount includes this issuance; assumed refinanced without net debt cash movement prior to Nov6 because actual September repayment refinancing was not separately verified

forecast_2026_FY_smart_cloud_computing_other_mix

内容を開く

smart_consumer_oku

0.31

cloud_networking_oku

0.505

computing_oku

0.14

components_other_oku

0.045

forecast_2026_FY_5_cases_in_oku

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bull

112000

upside

111000

base

110000

downside

108000

bear

106000

growth_calculation

2027–36 segment-specific annual growth rates; product-category assumptions not disclosed AI revenue

2027_to_2036_case_parameters

内容を開く

1

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key

bull

名称

強気：AIサーバー需要・部材付加価値の拡大

prob

10.00%

FY26_sales

112000

FY26_op_margin

0.038

cloud_g

内容を開く

1

0.24

2

0.21

3

0.17

4

0.15

5

0.12

6

0.1

7

0.085

8

0.075

9

0.06

10

0.055

other_g

1

0.03

2

0.025

3

0.04

opm

1

1

0.039

2

0.045

tax

0.23

nci

0.13

equity_meth_m

0.00025

other_m

0.00015

cash_deposit_yield

0.019

debt_cost

0.031

wc_growth

0.1

capex_ratio

0.024

da_ratio

0.014

sbc_ratio

0.00032

payout

0.48

buyback

0.12

g

0.042

2029_conversion_shares

60000000

2030_equity_issued

0

buyback_yield_price_growth

0.06

cash_floor

4200

story

AIサーバーの長期成長、設計・ラック統合の改善、米州生産の競争力が有利に働く。

2

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key

upside

名称

やや強気：AI増勢と安定した利益率

prob

20.00%

FY26_sales

111000

FY26_op_margin

0.0375

cloud_g

内容を開く

1

0.2

2

0.17

3

0.13

4

0.105

5

0.09

6

0.08

7

0.065

8

0.055

9

0.05

10

0.045

other_g

1

0.02

2

0.02

3

0.035

opm

1

1

0.0375

2

0.0415

tax

0.24

nci

0.14

equity_meth_m

0.0002

other_m

0.0001

cash_deposit_yield

0.018

debt_cost

0.032

wc_growth

0.105

capex_ratio

0.022

da_ratio

0.0135

sbc_ratio

0.00031

payout

0.5

buyback

0.08

g

0.035

2029_conversion_shares

40000000

2030_equity_issued

0

buyback_yield_price_growth

0.045

cash_floor

4200

story

AIサーバー需要は伸びるが販価圧力は残り、中程度の営業利益改善。

3

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key

base

名称

中立：AIの高成長減速と低マージンの継続

prob

40.00%

FY26_sales

110000

FY26_op_margin

0.0365

cloud_g

内容を開く

1

0.16

2

0.14

3

0.105

4

0.085

5

0.07

6

0.06

7

0.05

8

0.045

9

0.04

10

0.035

other_g

1

0.01

2

0.015

3

0.025

opm

1

1

0.0365

2

0.038

tax

0.245

nci

0.145

equity_meth_m

0.00015

other_m

5.0E-5

cash_deposit_yield

0.017

debt_cost

0.033

wc_growth

0.11

capex_ratio

0.02

da_ratio

0.013

sbc_ratio

0.0003

payout

0.52

buyback

0.045

g

0.025

2029_conversion_shares

20000000

2030_equity_issued

0

buyback_yield_price_growth

0.03

cash_floor

4200

story

CSP投資でネットワーク事業が増加しても、顧客集中、低付加価値組立のマージン上限が残る。

4

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key

downside

名称

やや弱気：AI投資減速・顧客圧力

prob

20.00%

FY26_sales

108000

FY26_op_margin

0.035

cloud_g

内容を開く

1

0.09

2

0.05

3

0.025

4

0.01

5

0.015

6

0.025

7

0.025

8

0.02

9

0.02

10

0.02

other_g

1

-0.015

2

0

3

0.005

opm

1

1

0.034

2

0.031

tax

0.25

nci

0.155

equity_meth_m

5.0E-5

other_m

0

cash_deposit_yield

0.016

debt_cost

0.037

wc_growth

0.13

capex_ratio

0.02

da_ratio

0.0125

sbc_ratio

0.00029

payout

0.45

buyback

0.01

g

0.012

2029_conversion_shares

0

2030_equity_issued

0

buyback_yield_price_growth

0

cash_floor

3500

story

AIの発注タイミングが後退。構成部品の内製利益は改善せず、需要不確実性を織り込む。

5

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key

bear

名称

弱気：地政学・主要顧客・AI設備投資の複合悪化

prob

10.00%

FY26_sales

106000

FY26_op_margin

0.033

cloud_g

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1

0.04

2

-0.18

3

-0.08

4

-0.02

5

0

6

0.015

7

0.01

8

0.01

9

0.01

10

0.01

other_g

1

-0.035

2

-0.02

3

-0.02

opm

1

1

0.03

2

0.0235

tax

0.27

nci

0.17

equity_meth_m

-0.00015

other_m

-0.00015

cash_deposit_yield

0.014

debt_cost

0.041

wc_growth

0.15

capex_ratio

0.023

da_ratio

0.012

sbc_ratio

0.00028

payout

0.32

buyback

0

g

0

2029_conversion_shares

0

2030_equity_issued

120000000

buyback_yield_price_growth

-0.012

cash_floor

3500

story

米中摩擦、主要顧客需要下振れ、AI設備投資調整。信用・増資負担が生じる。

SBC_forecast_cost_cash_policy

Group consolidated NI after stock-based comp; CFO includes one noncash add-back, assumes exactly matching market-cost subsidiary share buyback to prevent diluted sub holdings, so no parent 2317 share issuance and no duplicate expense; sensitivity to actual fair value

parent_new_issuance

Illustrative 2029 convertible partial conversion and severe-case 2030 third-party issue: no old holder cash; conversion reduces issuer borrowing and raises parent capital at book; third-party issue raises issuer cash and parent capital

parent_buys_issuer_stock

Pro rata tender original cohort into every hypothetical buyback in Sep with stock price quantity assumption; accounting equity decreases at cash amount, no extra payout of other shareholders at old cohort level

year_dividend

Dividends are drawn from prior annual parent profits at case-specific payout and paid in projected Jul after assumed ex in projected Jul; 2026 July already before baseline

future_ex_date_status

not_announced_assumption, shifted before weekend only; Taiwan market holiday adjustments not validated

pre_ex_review_lead_days

21

2026_full_year_parent_earnings_are_forecast_after_actual_H1

はい

cfo_model

economic CFO proxy = group net income + depreciation/amortisation + SBC noncash addback − modelled equity method profit − modeled net working capital. Associate cash distributions belong in investing cash flow, separately added to company cash and FCFE (not IFRS CFO); finance interest cash-flow classification is simplified within net profit, not official forecast IFRS statement.

separate_business_cash_from_equity_method_investment_value

はい

actual_2026_H1_cashflow_statement_dividends_received_classified_as_investing_cashflows

はい

tail_valuation

parent-only FCFE normalized after SBC + 2036 after-exit 55-day projected owner earnings, with perpetuity 2037 onward, no explicit equity-method EV, NCI, cash/debt added again

discount_exponent

actual (date_assumed - 2026-11-06) calendar days / 365.25, including leap years

ETF

EWT ownership, index float, ETF management expense, FX, ADR, Taiwan withholding and US/Japan investor tax NOT modelled. This is pre-tax issuer common-stock economic value, not EWT ETF return.

2024_parent_CB_2029_refinancing_and_discount_reconciliation

内容を開く

出典番号

1

s03

2

s16

状態

2026H1 total and 2024/2021/2025 issue-level convertible amounts DIRECTLY VERIFIED in issuer H1 Table 9 page 5; future amortization/2029 conversion/refinancing FORECAST

issue_date

2024-10-24

maturity_date

2029-10-24

contractual_end_of_conversion_period

2029-09-24

bondholder_three_year_put_recheck

2027-10-24

original_USD_principal

700000000

fixed_TWD_USD_contract_conversion_rate

32.186

TWD_face_value_oku

225.302

adjusted_conversion_price_2026_07_TWD

281.09

max_shares_at_2026_fixed_conversion_price

80152975.915

2026_H1_total_convertible_face_oku

237.11451

2026_H1_total_convertible_discount_oku

26.94551

2026_H1_total_convertible_net_carry_oku

210.169

2026_H1_non2024_remaining_face_oku

3.15151

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_estimated_oku

198.70737

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_VERIFIED_oku

198.70737

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_specific_discount_VERIFIED_oku

26.59463

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_face_VERIFIED_oku

8.661

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_discount_VERIFIED_oku

0.35088

2026_H1_2025bond_issue_carry_VERIFIED_oku

8.31012

2026_H1_2021bond_remaining_face_and_carry_VERIFIED_oku

3.15151

2026_Aug05_2021bond_prebasis_settlement_ASSUMPTION

June30 residual 3.15151oku TWD proxy repaid in cash on contractual 2026-08-05 maturity; unverified actual redemption/conversion

2026_H1_2024bond_issue_carry_directly_disclosed

はい

discount_allocation_assumption

NONE. Issue-specific 2024 unamortised discount NT$2,659,463 thousand verified in H1 Table9; 2025 subsidiary bond NT$35,088 thousand discount; 2021 remaining note NT$315,151 thousand book=face. Future effective interest rate and no FX reset assumed.

other_convertible_carry_estimate_oku

11.46163

2026H1_direct_issue_liability_source_location

issuer 2026H1 report Appendix Table 9 Page 5 (229th PDF page, zero indexed 228)

2024_issue_original_equity_option_reserve_booked_in_parent_equity_oku

38.40462

2026H1_all_share_option_capital_reserve_oku

38.45982

option_2021_remainder_in_reserve_oku

0.0552

existing_equity_option_increment_on_any_future_conversion_oku

0

estimated_accrual_rate_to_2029_FX_constant_effective_interest

0.038579118709

effective_interest_treated_as_NONCASH_financing_expense_not_SBC

はい

2029_maturity_conversion_cases_assumptions

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bull

60000000

upside

40000000

base

20000000

downside

0

bear

0

2029_conversion_date_assumed

2029-09-24

2029_end_of_conversion_window_source

SGX 2024 Offering Circular, period closes 30 calendar days prior to maturity; actual trading day and Closed Period to be reconfirmed

2029_conversion_debt_carry_at_conversion_date_IF_100pct_oku

224.60259667

2029_discount_after_last_conversion_date_to_maturity_IF_UNCONVERTED_oku

0.69940333

2029_no_new_cash_on_conversion

はい

2029_unconverted_principal_assumed_refinanced_at_face_same_day

はい

real_2029_put_exercise_conversion_price_FX_and_refinancing_unverified

はい

past_non_cash_conversion_2026_H1_2021_bond_USD346_7m_not_2024_bond

はい

2026_H1_non_cash_bond_conversion_liability_derecognition_NTthousand

9501121

2026_H1_non_cash_issued_share_par_NTthousand

700207

2026_H1_non_cash_share_premium_increment_NTthousand

8967336

2026_H1_existing_option_reserve_reversal_NTthousand

166422

issuer_accounting_2026_H1_2021_conversion_identity_NTthousand

9,501,121 liability + 166,422 pre-existing equity-option -> 700,207 par + 8,967,336 share premium

asof_debt_carry_2024cb_estimated_oku

201.38177001

audit_statement

book equity clean surplus includes ONLY debt carrying amount extinguished at conversion, never the preexisting option reserve again; stock issuance dilutes old cohort

分析に使用した資料

• TWSE daily trading record / 2317: close 224.50, traded volume 89,094,382
• Hon Hai issuer FY2026Q2 board approved financial results
• Hon Hai consolidated financial statements and independent auditors review, 2026 H1, 229-page issuer statement
• Hon Hai Technology Group announces 2Q26 results
• Hon Hai 2Q26 results English transcript
• Hon Hai unaudited sales Oct2026 and January-October
• Hon Hai 2026 ex dividend 2026-07-02 and payment 2026-07-31
• Hon Hai dividend adjusted to 7.17179227 due convertible bond conversion
• Hon Hai IR fundamentals historical shares and annual revenue and profit
• Scheduled Q3 investor call on 2026-11-12
• Hon Hai FY2025 audited summary
• 2026 September registered capital 14,075,746,497 shares reported by local bank news from issuer notice
• MOPS public issuer filings navigation (raw individual/company-only 2026H1 not independently established)
• Historical 2026/09 capital formation showing 14,078,069,074 shares; secondary reconstruction, not confirmed direct MOPS original
• Issuer original prospectus, USD700m currency linked zero-coupon bonds due Oct24 2029