AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
Elite Material Co., Ltd. / 台光電子材料股份有限公司 (台光電)
2383 · TWD · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
先端基板向け材料の成長と大型設備投資を考慮した10年評価
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
高性能半導体や電子機器の基板向け材料を手掛けます。需要、製品価格、設備更新・増産投資、運転資本、株式報酬を５ケースで評価します。2026年９月末財務から11月６日までの残高は推計です。2026年10月に承認した投資予算は実支払額ではなく、融資枠の実行も未確認です。将来の利益・投資・配当は仮定で、現地源泉税、ETF経費、為替変動は含みません。出典は会社の2026年第３四半期報告と台湾取引所日報です。
事業
電子基板に用いられる銅張積層板や樹脂材料を製造します。
競争力・事業の質
先端用途の製品性能や顧客認証が強みになり得ますが、需要循環と投資回収に注意します。
業界と環境
半導体、サーバー、電子機器の需要と材料供給能力に左右されます。
財務・資本配分
増産予算、実際の投資支払、承認された融資枠と借入実行を区別します。
評価の前提と確認
会計上の利益だけでなく運転資本と維持・成長投資を差し引いた現金を評価します。
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 11.50%
- label
illustrative required equity return for owner NPV (11.5%, unverified forward risk premium)
- discount_basis
cashflows years = ACT/365.25 from 2026-11-06, fixed calendar ten-year horizon
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 悲観 | 15.0% | 431.10 | 1,060.91 |
| やや悲観 | 25.0% | 1,214.73 | 3,792.76 |
| 中立 | 35.0% | 3,152.36 | 9,454.58 |
| やや強気 | 18.0% | 5,309.05 | 16,963.32 |
| 強気 | 7.0% | 7,492.49 | 23,704.04 |
金額の単位
億TWD (100,000,000 New Taiwan dollars)
事業の詳細
- model
Mix epoxy resin/glass cloth/copper foil, fabricate specialty copper clad laminates/prepregs sold to PCB producers for AI server, high-speed networking, automotive and other electronics.
- supplier_sources
- 1
copper foil mainly Taiwan
- 2
glass fiber cloth Taiwan/Japan
- 3
epoxy resin Taiwan/Japan
- products
- 1
copper-clad laminate
- 2
prepreg
- 3
multilayer press laminate
- customer_concentration_2025
内容を開く
- anonymous_customer_A_pct
- 14
- anonymous_customer_B_pct
- 12
- customer_identity_verified
- いいえ
- 出典
S05 pdf p79
- geographic_exposure
China ~79.11% of sales geography in 2025 annual; geographic location is not equal to end-customer economic exposures.
- 2025_annual_report_management_market_share_claims
- global_ccl_pct
- 13.3
- halogen_free_ccl_pct
- 34.4
- third_party_prismark_original_verified
- いいえ
- high_speed_risk
Qualifications and chemistry create barriers, but new ultra-low-loss technologies and competing producers can compress margins.
競争力の詳細
- understandability
medium-high core product economics; low auditability of final OEM exposure and ASP/mix
- economic_moat
qualification and dielectric-performance manufacturing knowhow; not immune to competing process/capacity
- management_capital_allocation
2026-10-28 expansion decision for 986 oku and syndication limit 350 oku demand disciplined project return monitoring
- cash_conversion_warning
2026 nine-month cash from operations 122.93 oku vs PPE capex cash 168.78 oku (negative pre-intangible FCF)
- cyclicality
volume, high-end product mix, raw copper/glass fiber/resin, customer capex cycles, concentration and fab utilization
業界の詳細
- competitors
内容を開く
- 1
Shengyi Technology
- 2
Kingboard
- 3
Nan Ya Plastics
- 4
Panasonic Industry
- competition_assessment
High-end technical qualification supports margins, commodity CCL more price competitive.
- overinvestment_risk
Approved 986 oku capex is an authorization, not immediate contractual CF nor guaranteed return.
財務・資本配分の詳細
- actual_reviewed_sep2026
内容を開く
- 現金（億）
- 296.78813
- trade_receivables_oku
- 827.03857
- inventory_oku
- 270.83831
- trade_payables_oku
- 499.42254
- pp_and_e_oku
- 477.48155
- bank_short_term_borrowings_oku
- 182.5011
- bank_current_long_debt_oku
- 35.86997
- bank_long_term_borrowings_oku
- 224.46961
- financial_debt_oku
- 442.84068
- lease_liability_current_oku
- 0.56071
- lease_liability_long_oku
- 5.59756
- 親会社持分（億）
- 734.68253
- noncontrolling_interest_oku
- -0.24061
- total_equity_oku
- 734.44192
- assets_total_oku
- 1937.4298
- liabilities_total_oku
- 1202.98788
- issued_common_shares
- 358321114
- treasury_shares_reported
- 0
- financial_net_debt_oku
- 146.05255
- lease_liability_total_oku
- 6.15827
- net_operating_working_capital_core_oku
- 598.45434
- actual_2026_ytd
内容を開く
- 売上高
- 1412.26994
- 営業利益（億）
- 385.48717
- pretax_profit_oku
- 386.82854
- income_tax_expense_oku
- 89.73315
- consolidated_net_profit_oku
- 297.09539
- parent_common_net_profit_oku
- 297.13011
- nci_profit_oku
- -0.03472
- cfo_oku
- 122.92912
- pp_and_e_cash_capex_oku
- 168.7846
- intangible_cash_capex_oku
- 0.52555
- depreciation_oku
- 18.95322
- amortization_oku
- 0.35059
- total_operating_wc_cash_outflow_oku
- 236.18383
- cash_dividends_paid_oku
- 89.5802785
- weighted_average_basic_shares_thousands
- 358321
- weighted_average_diluted_shares_thousands
- 358577
- potential_employee_stock_bonus_dilution_shares_thousands
- 256
- employee_compensation_accrued_oku
- 9.99651
- director_compensation_accrued_oku
- 0.68393
- cash_dividend_2026_ex_date
2026-08-28
- cash_dividend_2026_paid_date
2026-09-24
- effective_group_tax_rate
- 0.231971379
- actual_2025_and_oct2026
- 2026
内容を開く
- 売上高
- 942.60578
- profit_parent_oku
- 146.48907
- profit_consolidated_oku
- 146.44888
- dividend_2026_for_2025_per_share_twd
- 25
- 2026_10
- 売上高
- 244.72758
- source_status
reproduced_market_regulatory_release; direct issuer MOPS primary row not independently confirmed
- preferred_shares
none identified in company registration, 2025 annual and current common financing; reconfirm if future rights change
- nci
negative reviewed NCI book and slight negative NCI earnings, separately carried; not added to parent terminal equity.
- trust_treasury_and_sbc
2026 basic vs diluted share difference includes 256k hypothetically dilutive employee stock bonus; not confirmed actual share grant. Historical employee compensation accrual inside profit. Future grants entirely hypothetical and charged once in EBIT, CFO addback with corresponding dilution, then terminal future neutralizing buyback cash cost.
- share_buybacks
no verified outstanding company buyback authorization or executed treasury shares at 2026-11-06; scenarios conservatively set buyback spending zero and do not count fictitious old-holder tender proceeds
- dividend_rights
内容を開く
- 2026_dividend_per_common_share_twd
- 25
- 2026_declared
2026-07-29
- 2026_ex_date
2026-08-28
- 2026_record_date
2026-09-05
- 2026_payment_date
2026-09-24
- eligible_to_buy_at_2026_11_06
- いいえ
- included_in_projected_holder_cf_oku
- 0
- 出典
S06
- unfunded_credit_limit_mistake_to_avoid
350 oku approved bank facility is separate from 442.84068 oku outstanding bank financial borrowing on Sep30, pending confirmed draw and signature.
- intragroup_loans
Do not separately add subsidiaries related-party intercompany loans to consolidated external financing; eliminate in consolidation.
評価根拠の詳細
- q3_2026_pretax_margin
- 0.307195313
- nine_month_effective_tax_rate
- 0.231971379
- annualized_2026_9month_parent_net_income_oku
- 396.17348
- price_earnings_on_9month_annualization
- 34.55018381
- 2025_parent_ni_oku
- 146.48907
- price_earnings_2025_full_year
- 93.439507499
- reported_2026_ytd_nwc_cash_use_oku
- 236.18383
- reported_2026_ytd_ebit_margin
- 0.272955728
- reported_2026_ytd_cfo_less_ppe_cash_capex_oku
- -45.85548
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 3820
- price_currency
TWD/share
- 株価の出所
台湾証券取引所2026-11-06日報の普通株終値3,820 TWD
- 株数
- 358321114
- 株数の出所
台湾証券取引所2026-11-06投資枠表の発行普通株358,321,114株。基準日の自己株・信託の有無は未確定のため旧株主分母は代理値。
- issued_common_shares
- 358321114
- 自己株式数
- 0
- treasury_status
no treasury share balance identified through reviewed 2026-09-30; Nov06 status not independently proven
- old_holder_cohort_shares
- 358321114
- total_outstanding_shares_proxy
- 358321114
- 時価総額（億）
- 13687.8665548
- financial_statement_date_actual
2026-09-30
- financial_starting_point_asof_proxy
2026-11-06 estimated 37-day bridge from 2026-09-30 with October reported revenue, otherwise explicitly assumed
- initial_cash_proxy_oku
- 311.571843239
- initial_bank_debt_proxy_oku
- 442.84068
- initial_parent_book_equity_proxy_oku
- 793.574243239
- initial_nci_book_equity_proxy_oku
- -0.24861
- actual_2026_09_30_parent_equity_oku
- 734.68253
- initial_issuer_common_shares
- 358321114
検証上の留意点
- publishability
UNVERIFIED MODEL assumptions; not fit to be presented as audited public valuation or EWT tax analysis.
- actual_vs_proxy_vs_forecast
内容を開く
- 1
All 2026-09-30 P&L/BS data verified in reviewed company PDF
- 2
2026-10 revenue from company announcement repost not direct MOPS original
- 3
37-day 2026-10-01 to 2026-11-06 reconciliation bridge explicitly estimated
- 4
55+9*12months+311 future periods purely hypothetical; no 2026 post-cutoff existing cash dividend assumed
- tax
Reported 2026 9m consolidated effective tax ~23.2%; future case tax rates assumed 23-25% and apply to positive pretax income (no tax credits or NOL modeled). EWT dividend withholding UNKNOWN and intentionally NOT deducted.
- maintenance_capex
Company has not disclosed exact maintenance/growth split. Forecast divides PP&E cash capex using estimated 2.6-3.1% sales maintenance and budget-linked growth; project timing unknown.
- customer_concentration
Named downstream A/B anonymized; EWT ETF holdings and final OEM mix unknown.
- capex_986
All scenarios model conditional post-cutoff expansion spending as a stress assumption, not a verified remaining cash commitment. Oct28-Jan?? already spent or previously planned overlap unknown.
- debt_350
Board finance limit not a cash inflow without verified execution, borrowing dynamically modeled as separate assumptions.
- dividends
2026 dividend ex and payment before cutoff, excluded. Future ex dates and payment dates are provisional weekday-adjusted assumptions (Taiwan holiday calendar not checked); declarative zero-event markers included.
- SBC
Historical diluted stock-bonus potential is NOT actual paid equity issuance; forecast hypothetical grant shares charged in EBIT; post-terminal stock-neutrality cash replacement solved at implied market price; no same shares deducted twice.
- cashflow_coverage
Scenario annual CFO assumes accounting tax equals cash tax, no extra derivative/investment/FX cash mismatch, NCI distributions zero and operating working capital tied to sales changes. Corporate actions after cutoff unverified.
- terminal_value
2037 recurring FCFF, not market P/E. Terminal share equity appears exclusively in mcap_oku and IRR terminal separately; no nonzero terminal event inside timed_cashflows.
- disclosure_gaps
内容を開く
- 1
TWSE individual security original Nov06 daily-price API row not obtained (issuer price verified)
- 2
2026-11-06 exact audited cash, debt, book equity and treasury shares unavailable; 9/30 + estimated 37-day bridge only
- 3
2026-10 released sales direct MOPS record not obtained
- 4
Current newly signed 350oku credit and funding status unknown
- 5
986oku capex authorization cash timetable and committed vs cancellable parts unconfirmed
- 6
Future maintenance capex and long-run PCB material ASP/product mix and final buyers unknowable
- 7
2027+ dividend exact ex/payment times not announced; modeled dates not Taiwan-trading-holiday adjusted
- 8
Actual potential stock bonus settlement vs stock grant details and later issuances unconfirmed
- 9
Any ETF-level local dividend withholding tax rate unresolved
- 10
No validated official external importer schema beyond inferred aiv-2-eu-pilot key convention
追加データ・検証記録
分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。
分析に使用した資料
- EMC issuer quoted share price 2026-11-06 14:00:10
- Ministry of Economic Affairs public company registration
- TWSE ISIN identification registry listed securities
- 2026 3Q consolidated financial report, reviewed 2026-10-28
- Elite Material 2025 annual report issued before as-of
- 2026 dividend ex date and payment decision 2026-07-29
- 2026-10-28 capex board authorization
- 2026-10-28 proposed syndicated credit facility
- 2026 October sales announced 2026-11-05
- 2026-11-06 2383 historical OHLC (Goodinfo)
- 台湾証券取引所 2026年11月6日取引日報
- 台湾証券取引所 2026年11月6日普通株数