Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd.（富邦金融控股）

分析の要約

富邦金控は台湾の銀行・生命保険・損害保険・証券を束ねる金融グループです。顧客基盤と販売網に強みがありますが、保険の運用損益や規制資本が、普通株主に戻せる現金を左右します。2026年11月6日の持株会社単体の現金と資金源は未確認のため、子会社からの配当、外部借入、資産・持分の売却、資金不足時の調達という４つの仮定を比較しました。表示中の期待年率は外部借入を置いた参照値で、実際の借入を示すものではありません。ETFの現地源泉税・費用・将来の為替は未反映です。

事業

富邦人壽、台北富邦銀行、富邦產險、富邦證券、投信/海外銀行。生命保険運用の金利・為替と銀行の与信が主要リスク。

競争力・事業の質

顧客基盤と販売網の堀は高評価。一方、保険契約負債の超長期再価格付け、銀行信用引当、投資運用市場依存、および持株会社上流配当を重視。

業界と環境

IFRS17・台湾保険2026規制新制度により旧年度の生命保険利益や資本と直接比較不可。台湾株式・債券・為替・保険CSM・銀行CET1を別々に監視。

財務・資本配分

会社自己資本は子会社規制資本と同じではない。2026年6月末親会社持分12,676.498億TWDから額面ではなく優先株優先払込96.0bnTWDを控除した普通株経済資本11,716.504億TWDを代理開始値とする。

評価の前提と確認

reference_funding_hypothesis_IS_NOT_OBSERVED

external_borrowing

market_price_twd

148

initial_share_count

14007364952

時価総額（億）

20730.90012896

5case_probabilities_sum

1

weighted_net_sum_IFRS_profit_oku

12551.615445553

weighted_common_profit_after_pref_oku

12141.936513692

probability_weighted_intrinsic_value_oku

7590.457452365

probability_weighted_intrinsic_value_per_initial_share_twd

54.189046108

probability_weighted_dated_cashflow_IRR

-0.022018924965

terminal_expected_old_cohort_oku

11801.996496994

expected_cashflow_sum_oku

5271.972556399

safety_margin_pct

-63.38578

terminal_not_in_timed_cashflows

はい

weighted_IRR_on_all_dated_flows_and_terminal_once

はい

four_way_valuation_summary_per_share

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upstream_subsidiary

55.491060368

external_borrowing

54.189046108

stake_and_asset_sale

54.833782384

liquidity_shortfall

52.676129628

four_way_IRR_summary

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upstream_subsidiary

-0.019867971712

external_borrowing

-0.022018924965

stake_and_asset_sale

-0.021626057839

liquidity_shortfall

-0.022285174531

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

10.30%

currency

TWD

事業の質

0.66

事業の質の内訳

内容を開く

顧客・預金フランチャイズ

0.83

保険負債と市場リスク

0.47

経営・資本配分

0.68

開示の透明性

0.72

規制余力・ダブルレバレッジ

0.58

事業の質の根拠

銀行は強いが、保険巨額負債・台湾株式と外貨資産・IFRS17移行・再分類OCIおよび配当規制に高い不確実性。k=10.3%は独立したTWD名目保有者要求利回りの仮定。

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

資金源による感応度

未確認の資金源をそれぞれ仮定し、各仮定内で５ケースの株主キャッシュフローを確率加重した試算です。実際の資金源や分岐の確率を示すものではありません。年率と１株価値は分析基準日の株価 148.00 TWD に基づきます。

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

148

株数

14007364952

株価の出所

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url

https://www.twse.com.tw/exchangeReport/MI_INDEX?date=20261106&response=html&type=ALLBUT0999

as_of

2026-11-06

close_twd

148

open_twd

140.5

high_twd

151

low_twd

140

daily_volume_shares

48407737

primary_exchange_verified

はい

株数の出所

内容を開く

url

https://fubon.irpro.co/tw/quickfacts.php

as_of

2026-07-07

ordinary_issued

14007364952

ordinary_outstanding

14007364952

reported_treasury_common_shares

0

treasury_as_of

2026-06-30

ordinary_current_share_count_not_independently_reconciled_after_2026_07_07

はい

preferred_A_2881A

600000000

preferred_B_2881B

666660000

preferred_C_2881C

333330000

total_preferred

1599990000

2026_11_06_TWSE_listing_and_foreign_share_limit_user_original_verified

はい

2026_11_06_company_treasury_and_eligible_holder_share_count_not_fully_verified

はい

2026_11_06_ordinary_listed_shares

14007364952

opening_mcap_oku

20730.90012896

asof_financial_balance_report_date

2026-06-30

cashflow_cohort

2026-11-06現在2881普通株を既保有する旧株主全体。非累積優先株2881A/B/Cは別。将来第三者発行は旧株主集団外。

cohort_convention

2026-11-06取得普通株14,007,364,952株全部;将来買戻しは集団比例応札,社員交付/第三者発行は旧株主に含まない

share_count_category_note

14,007,364,952 ordinary listed shares from TWSE share listing, used as market cohort proxy; exact Nov 6 treasury vs free shares not independently resolved. Preferred lines excluded.

検証上の留意点

net_sum_formula

net_sum_oku = sum of 11 period parent-attributable IFRS net profit (BEFORE economic allocation of preferred rights), common_share_attributable_profit_sum_oku = net_sum_oku − preferred economic allocation. H1 2026 audited parent IFRS 973.9113 vs common 934.26999.

payout_formula

For old Nov6 cohort, only dated ordinary dividends and pro-rata tender buybacks inside 10 years; pre-Nov6 dividends and intra-group cash transfers are excluded.

mcap_formula

2036 terminal ONLY. 2037 sustainable CF from constrained NI & upstream, excess cash once and foregone interest, debt principal subtracted once with incremental debt interest removed from normalized CF; old cohort ratio.

oldholder_share_eligibility

将来の第三者への新株発行は旧株主の持分を希薄化させます。買戻しは旧株主が比例応募する仮定です。2026年上期に確認された株式報酬は現金決済で、モデルは未確認の新株交付を計上していません。

terminal_future_cash

2037年の持続的な普通株主向けCFは、利益と子会社からの上流資金の制約を比較し、設備・規制資本等に必要な再投資を考慮します。OCI振替やCSMをそのまま現金とせず、終価で取り崩す現金の運用益を差し引きます。株式報酬のための追加株式買戻しは仮定していません。

treat_pref_coupon

2026 H1 EPS divides profits after full prior preferred dividend. Forecast parent earnings are separately allocated to preferred priority. Preferred distributions never added to old common holders.

start_date_2026_11_07_and_end_date_2036_11_06

2026 55/365, 2036 311/366. Years 2027-2035 full, 2028 and 2032 leap years.

severe_taiwan_insurance_transition

Stress insurance capital, OCI and external financing are scenario hypotheticals; actuarial TIS non-disclosed proxy not fabricated.

balance_sheet_identity

Assets = bank deposits + insurance contract liabilities + other group liabilities + parent common equity + preferred original priority + NCI. Balance-sheet growth is memo assumption, not a full published IFRS balance sheet or free CF.

holding_cash

Net new future upstreamed subsidiary cash, not consolidated CFO or insurance investment assets, pays holding cash obligations. Opening 400億 TWD is a scenario proxy; true 2026-11-06 holding cash unknown.

capital_model

FHC qualified capital and required capital are an independent transparent proxy rollforward of 2026-06-30 audited older-rule amounts; not a certified 2026 Q3 regulatory filing. Contrast with 142.30% IR new-rule.

SBC

会社の2026年上期EPS注記では株式報酬は現金決済と記載されています。モデルは将来の株式交付・非現金加算・株数維持のための追加買戻しをゼロとし、通常の人件費は利益に含む仮定です。将来の制度変更や費用の内訳は未確認です。

future_payment_dates

Unannounced annual calendar dates are explicitly hypothetical. Monetary amount zero events trigger regeneration on forecast board, ex-date and holder change; check actual right status before applying past cashflows.

missing_primary_asof

November 6 own treasury/buyback transaction logs, Q3 signed consolidated statements, Nov 6 parent cash, life TIS solvency and post IFRS17 regulatory denominator not verified.

limitations

No imputed exact ETF Taiwanese withholding tax, no assertion of future common dividends, no fictitious parent-level distributable cash from insurer FVOCI gains, no stock split until separately verified.

v2_additional_checks

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1

v2: 上期資本の普通/優先配当合計634.95432億元を期首6月末純資産から再控除せず。支払は未払配当と金控単体現金を減らすが自己資本を再減額しない。

2

v2: 9月自結累計1272.2億元−上期監査済973.9113億元=第3四半期298.2887億元をH1後の期首橋渡しに一度だけ使用。2026年11月7日以降の純利益合計に含めない。

3

v2: 9月FVOCI株式売却剰余金振替1227.4億元は純資産内部の振替でありNI/OCI/資本に加算していない。

4

v2: 6月末金控単体現金380.42196−7月31日支払634.95432＋未確認純流入が11月6日開始持株現金となる。開始400億には654.53236億の追加純流入が必要だが実額・内訳は未確認。

5

v2: TIS 140%は2026上半期公表値であり11/6比率は未確認。177%は経営者発言で規制当局が公表値として認めていない。規制資本計算は旧開示方法の分析代理台帳であり現行制度そのものと混ぜない。

6

v2: 優先3系列は無期限・非累積・裁量配当であり発行済普通株数や旧普通株主CFに含めない。

7

v2: 2026H1財務報告の1株利益注記によれば会社の株式報酬はすべて現金決済で加重平均株数に影響なし。将来株式決済へ変更した確認なし、従って追加新株発行=0、終価のSBC追加買付=0。現金決済報酬費用は営業利益に含むと仮定して加算しない。

8

v2: 終価で取り崩す持株会社の余剰現金の運用益を持続CFから減算。保険子会社規制資本、銀行預金、CSM、未分配NCIを現金に足していない。

9

v2: 優先配当の当期経済的配分と実際の翌7月現金支払に時点差がある。ordinary_book_equity_endは優先控除後経済簿価で、gaap_parent_all_classes_equity_endは未払/未宣言経済配分残高を戻してIFRS連結純資産を橋渡し。

10

v2: 古いV1の成長仮定・業種別利益プロファイル・保険負債等の外挿も条件付き予測であり、監査済み11/6実績に変化したわけではない。

initial_balance_and_funding

Four hypothetical funding sources are each balance-sheet closed. Even liquidity shortfall has a mandatory assumed emergency facility to avoid negative paid cash; this is a diagnostic not factual financing.

formal_subsidiary_JulNov2026_dividend_and_issuer_borrowings

Insufficient audited post-Jun parent-separate source/maturity disclosure to assign actual 654.53236; company 9m release is P&L not FHC standalone cash flow.

life_TIS

2026 transition TIS 140% reportable by regulators; informal 177% must not be substituted. TIS child own funds and actual permitted distributions unknown; bank BIS and CET1 stress are analyst haircuts, not regulatory reports.

cash_paid_SBC

H1 EPS note says all issuer share-based awards settled in cash and no dilutive shares; amount of staff bonus expense itself not independently isolated, future plans unknown. EBIT/NI includes ordinary staff costs; no addback.

FHC_bond_2026_maturity

Company issuer bond page P08富邦金2 TWD 3.8bn matures 2026-12-05; MODEL assumes refinance same face at 2.5% vs 0.82%; neither realized refinance nor future rollover rate confirmed.

group_total_assets_synthetic_memo_NOT_audited_asset_by_asset

Consolidated total assets in future rows is a balancing memo (group liabilities + owners + NCI), NOT reconstructed asset-by-asset or independently audited. Parent FHC opening separate balance bridge is explicitly verified arithmetically; asset/liability forecasts are conditional.

obsolete_v2_sensitivity

Removed inherited v2 values because earlier funding gap makes their PV/IRR incompatible with new v3 capital and cash bridges; v3 revalued below.

buyer_of_subsidiary_stake

Share sale at book with no gains is hypothetical and may violate ownership/holding controls without approvals. No actual transaction inferred.

追加データ・検証記録

forecast_assumptions

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scenarios

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1

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key

deep_stress

名称

構造的な弱気（保険資産毀損・増資）

prob

12.00%

life

-180

bank_precredit

560

credit_cost

235

p_c

55

securities

35

am

8

other

-90

life_growth_abs

37

bank_g

0.012

pc_g

0.005

sec_g

0.018

am_g

0.015

other_g

0.005

risk_req_g

0.026

bank_dep_g

0.012

insurance_liab_g

0.008

other_liab_g

0.018

dividend_target

0

dividend_g

0

buyback_from

2100

buyback_annual_oku

0

life_up

0.12

bank_up

0.5

pc_up

0.4

sec_up

0.4

am_up

0.5

annual_pref

44

pref_g

0.006

nci_annual

5

nci_g

0.01

sbc_shares_year

0

cash_issue_price

72

terminal_growth

0.005

terminal_req_g

0.018

owner_cash_holdback

140

理由

2027年の大幅OCI悪化と保険逆ざや、銀行信用費用、外部普通株増資を条件付きで想定。

OCI_2026_to_2036_oku

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2027

-120

2028

-2500

2029

350

2030

150

v1_unverified_hypothetical_issuer_SBC_new_shares_ANNUALLY_NOT_ADOPTED

0

H1_2026_disclosed_SBC_settlement

ALL CASH SETTLED; zero impact on weighted shares per H1 EPS note; changed future equity arrangement not precluded but unverified

2

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key

bear

名称

弱気（保険利回り・信用費用悪化）

prob

23.00%

life

250

bank_precredit

600

credit_cost

131.25

p_c

65

securities

65

am

12

other

-70

life_growth_abs

0

life_g

0.015

bank_g

0.015

pc_g

0.015

sec_g

0.015

am_g

0.02

other_g

0.01

risk_req_g

0.022

bank_dep_g

0.02

insurance_liab_g

0.017

other_liab_g

0.018

dividend_target

1.85

dividend_g

0.01

buyback_from

2100

buyback_annual_oku

0

life_up

0.28

bank_up

0.55

pc_up

0.5

sec_up

0.55

am_up

0.6

annual_pref

41

pref_g

0.003

nci_annual

6

nci_g

0.015

sbc_shares_year

0

cash_issue_price

90

terminal_growth

0.012

terminal_req_g

0.02

owner_cash_holdback

90

理由

金利・為替損と貸倒費用が収益を抑制。増配余地は小さい。

OCI_2026_to_2036_oku

2027

-50

2028

-650

2029

100

v1_unverified_hypothetical_issuer_SBC_new_shares_ANNUALLY_NOT_ADOPTED

30000

H1_2026_disclosed_SBC_settlement

ALL CASH SETTLED; zero impact on weighted shares per H1 EPS note; changed future equity arrangement not precluded but unverified

3

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key

base

名称

中立（正常化した銀行・保険利益）

prob

36.00%

life

550

bank_precredit

650

credit_cost

87.5

p_c

90

securities

120

am

20

other

-70

life_growth_abs

0

life_g

0.027

bank_g

0.031

pc_g

0.024

sec_g

0.022

am_g

0.04

other_g

0.02

risk_req_g

0.026

bank_dep_g

0.028

insurance_liab_g

0.027

other_liab_g

0.023

dividend_target

3.6

dividend_g

0.028

buyback_from

2100

buyback_annual_oku

0

life_up

0.45

bank_up

0.72

pc_up

0.6

sec_up

0.72

am_up

0.7

annual_pref

39.64131

pref_g

0.002

nci_annual

8

nci_g

0.023

sbc_shares_year

0

cash_issue_price

125

terminal_growth

0.025

terminal_req_g

0.026

owner_cash_holdback

45

理由

銀行預金・貸出基盤と保険CSMの継続、2026年評価益の恒久化を回避。

OCI_2026_to_2036_oku

2027

0

2028

-250

2029

250

v1_unverified_hypothetical_issuer_SBC_new_shares_ANNUALLY_NOT_ADOPTED

100000

H1_2026_disclosed_SBC_settlement

ALL CASH SETTLED; zero impact on weighted shares per H1 EPS note; changed future equity arrangement not precluded but unverified

4

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key

bull

名称

強気（収益構造改善）

prob

21.00%

life

760

bank_precredit

725

credit_cost

68.75

p_c

115

securities

170

am

27

other

-75

life_growth_abs

0

life_g

0.04

bank_g

0.044

pc_g

0.04

sec_g

0.038

am_g

0.05

other_g

0.022

risk_req_g

0.034

bank_dep_g

0.041

insurance_liab_g

0.038

other_liab_g

0.03

dividend_target

5

dividend_g

0.04

buyback_from

2029

buyback_annual_oku

45

life_up

0.5

bank_up

0.75

pc_up

0.68

sec_up

0.78

am_up

0.75

annual_pref

39.64131

pref_g

0.002

nci_annual

9

nci_g

0.035

sbc_shares_year

0

cash_issue_price

165

terminal_growth

0.036

terminal_req_g

0.032

owner_cash_holdback

25

理由

金融サービス網と保障性新契約の収益化が進み、効率化・引当正常化。

OCI_2026_to_2036_oku

2027

100

2028

300

2029

200

v1_unverified_hypothetical_issuer_SBC_new_shares_ANNUALLY_NOT_ADOPTED

200000

H1_2026_disclosed_SBC_settlement

ALL CASH SETTLED; zero impact on weighted shares per H1 EPS note; changed future equity arrangement not precluded but unverified

5

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key

super_bull

名称

例外的強気（資本効率・利益大幅改善）

prob

8.00%

life

950

bank_precredit

860

credit_cost

70

p_c

155

securities

245

am

38

other

-65

life_growth_abs

0

life_g

0.052

bank_g

0.056

pc_g

0.055

sec_g

0.05

am_g

0.06

other_g

0.025

risk_req_g

0.042

bank_dep_g

0.05

insurance_liab_g

0.048

other_liab_g

0.038

dividend_target

6.6

dividend_g

0.055

buyback_from

2028

buyback_annual_oku

105

life_up

0.55

bank_up

0.78

pc_up

0.7

sec_up

0.82

am_up

0.78

annual_pref

39.64131

pref_g

0.002

nci_annual

10

nci_g

0.045

sbc_shares_year

0

cash_issue_price

210

terminal_growth

0.045

terminal_req_g

0.036

owner_cash_holdback

15

理由

保険・銀行両部門が高ROEを維持する低確率ケース。

OCI_2026_to_2036_oku

2027

170

2028

650

2029

300

v1_unverified_hypothetical_issuer_SBC_new_shares_ANNUALLY_NOT_ADOPTED

300000

H1_2026_disclosed_SBC_settlement

ALL CASH SETTLED; zero impact on weighted shares per H1 EPS note; changed future equity arrangement not precluded but unverified

historical_2026_H1_company_cash_not_asof_estimate

はい

regulatory_eligibility_for_forecast_OCI_fraction

0.7

regulatory_group_2026_06_old_method_proxy_only

はい

regulatory_compliance_statutory_minimum_pct

100

regulatory_conservative_2027_dividend_buffer_pct

112

regulatory_issuer_buyback_buffer_pct

115

regulatory_emergency_external_equity_trigger_pct

108

regulatory_external_equity_post_issue_target_pct

110

estimated_parent_cash_upstream_arriving_before_forecast_annual_dividend_fraction

0.8

holding_company_cash_minimum_oku

200

ordinary_dividend_annual_estimated_board_date_month_day

05-20

ordinary_dividend_annual_estimated_ex_date_month_day

07-01

ordinary_dividend_annual_estimated_record_date_month_day

07-07

ordinary_dividend_annual_estimated_pay_date_month_day

07-31

annual_buyback_proxy_date_month_day

11-15

employee_share_delivery_date_month_day

未確認

future_buyback_is_not_announced_commitment

はい

future_dividends_not_announced

はい

forecast_OCI_non_cash_not_payout

はい

CSM_model_unreleased_funding_liability_not_owner_cash

はい

all_values_TWD_nominal_no_FX_translation

はい

TWD_local_ETF_withholding_tax_status

unknown; no tax rate asserted

employee_share_delivery_date_month_day_v1_not_used_in_v2

legacy 12-15 (2036=09-15) speculative stock-delivery schedule; disabled because 2026 H1 issuer SBC cash-settled

scenario_specific_opening_capital_and_holding_cash_plus_upstream_haircuts

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deep_stress

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post_9m_through_cutoff_ni_oku

-75

post_H1_oci_to_cutoff_oku

-1200

opening_holding_cash_oku

150

life_upstream_multiplier

0.45

bank_upstream_multiplier

0.72

bear

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post_9m_through_cutoff_ni_oku

0

post_H1_oci_to_cutoff_oku

-500

opening_holding_cash_oku

250

life_upstream_multiplier

0.7

bank_upstream_multiplier

0.82

base

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post_9m_through_cutoff_ni_oku

75

post_H1_oci_to_cutoff_oku

0

opening_holding_cash_oku

400

life_upstream_multiplier

0.85

bank_upstream_multiplier

0.9

bull

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post_9m_through_cutoff_ni_oku

125

post_H1_oci_to_cutoff_oku

400

opening_holding_cash_oku

500

life_upstream_multiplier

0.95

bank_upstream_multiplier

0.96

super_bull

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post_9m_through_cutoff_ni_oku

180

post_H1_oci_to_cutoff_oku

900

opening_holding_cash_oku

650

life_upstream_multiplier

1

bank_upstream_multiplier

1

annual_SBC_accounting

2026 H1 company EPS note discloses ALL issuer share-based pay CASH-SETTLED, NO dilution to weighted common shares. Future cash-settled remuneration is already embedded in forecast operating expense / parent earnings; NOT added back. Issuer-equity shares forecast ZERO, no noncash equity credit. Contrary v1 hypothetical equity-share issuance not adopted. Any formal new equity plan requires rerun.

future_life_TIS_group_BIS_capital_actuals

H1 LIFE TIS 140% reportable (secondary confirmation), 177% is executive claim not official; Taipeifubon bank BIS 15.35% H1, later RWA/TIS unavailable; modeled upstream haircuts and old-method group cap are analyst policies NOT statutory projected ratios

preferred_coupon_non_cumulative_issuer_discretion

A/B/C perpetual noncumulative issuer-discretion and senior liquidation up to issue proceeds; future coupons are SCENARIO cash uses, not 2026-11-06 legal accrued liabilities

cashflow_2036_pref_coupon_date_fix

Projected annual prior-year preferred coupon at 2036-07-31 is a FULL 2035-year entitlement, not 311/366 of entitlement.

terminal_excess_parent_cash_income_fix

80% of HFC cash above 200 oku is added ONCE to terminal as accessible cash; perpetual owner cash after distribution reduced by 2% after-tax opportunity yield of released cash. If risk-free cash already excluded from operating profits this conservative adjustment may understate, recorded sensitivity 0/2/4%.

future_normalized_2037_SBC_market_fair_value_reconciliation

2037 issuer equity delivery ZERO per latest H1 disclosed cash-settlement basis unless changed by future formal plan; already expensed cash-settled staff remuneration remains in sustainable earnings. Do NOT noncash-add-back cash-settled expense. New issuer equity award shares=0 and offset repurchase cost=0; optional future-change sensitivity should be separately reconstructed and cannot be pretended confirmed.

v1_method_change_note

v2 reuses v1 conditional business earnings projections, which are assumed to include ordinary cash settled staff remuneration. It does NOT take unverified v1 share-equity-delivery schedules. Independently rebuilds cutoff equity/cash, regulatory cash caps, full 2036 pref payment, old-share counts, dated cashflows, 2037 terminal and IRR.

precutoff_funding_branches

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upstream_subsidiary

名称

仮定A：子会社からの既存資本・利益の上流配当

説明

現金移転は連結内部。単体子会社持分法投資減、単体現金増。連結純利益・純資産は新規増加しない。生命保険から0%、銀行50%、その他50%を仮置き。規制許容額は未確認。

external_borrowing

名称

仮定B：持株会社の新規外部借入

説明

単体・連結現金と社債借入負債が同額増。金利・元本返済/借換を11期間に反映。発行実績未確認。

stake_and_asset_sale

名称

仮定C：金融資産売却＋子会社持分一部売却

説明

既知FVTPL金融資産194.94737億を上限に、残りを子会社持分の簿価売却と仮定。持株会社投資・将来帰属利益減、外部少数株主NCI増。実際の許認可・買手・売却益は未確認。

liquidity_shortfall

名称

仮定D：資金源未特定・不足（緊急ブリッジ診断）

説明

7月の支払済配当と同時に資金ゼロは不可能。現金下限0を保つため254.53236億の緊急つなぎ借入が不可避という診断。400億の目標現金までは不足。借入実在を主張しない。

funding_source_assumptions_numerical

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external_loan_interest_pre_tax

0.038

external_loan_after_tax_rate_if_tax_shield_available

0.0304

emergency_loan_interest_pre_tax

0.085

loan_principal_schedule

ordinary debt annual 1/6 principal 2027–2032; emergency facility attempt repayment each 2027+; insufficient funded by explicit rollover

external_credit_repricing_per_missed_principal

0.01

interest_tax_shield_assumed_immediately_usable

はい

asset_sale_FVTPL_limited_by_2026_Jun_audited_FHC_BS_oku

194.94737

asset_share_sale_return_to_new_NCI_annual_assumption

0.075

equity_sell_at_book_NOT_known_market_price

はい

lost_return_from_FVTPL_assets_after_tax_annual_rate

0.025

upstream_branch_life_allocation_pct_assumption

0

upstream_branch_bank_pct_assumption

0.5

upstream_branch_other_nonlife_pct_assumption

0.5

upstream_branch_further_dividend_haircut_years

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1

2027

2

2028

3

2029

4

2030

5

2031

upstream_branch_annual_further_dividend_haircut_of_initial_upstream

0.07

FHC_existing_2026_dec_bond_face_maturity_oku

38

old_coupon

0.0082

replacement_new_coupon_ASSUMED

0.025

no_new_profit_from_FVOCI_retained_internal_transfer

はい

terminal_incremental_debt_principal_subtracted_once_and_interest_removed_from_normalized_CF

はい

terminal_excess_cash_80pct_realized_and_2pct_after_tax_foregone_yield

はい

H1_SBC_cash_settled_proven_but_future_changed_plan_not_excluded

はい

H1_2026_total_cash_settled_employee_awards_expense_UNDETERMINED_oku

未確認

分析に使用した資料

• TWSE daily exchange individual trades 2026-11-06 2881 / 2881 A B C
• TWSE security profile ISIN TW0002881000
• Ordinary and 3 series preferred shares, 2026-07-07
• 2026 H1 consolidated audited report with IFRS17, pages 7-9, 106-109, 353-356
• Fubon Aug 24 2026 1H26 results presentation, page 45 old/new FHC CAR formula
• 2026 YTD September accumulated parent net & FVOCI disposal transfer
• 2026 shareholder meeting approval for 2025 year common and preferred dividends
• Taiwan MOPS 2026 ex-dividend announcement reprint: ex 2026-07-01, record 07-07, cash payment 07-31
• Fubon IR history incorrectly uses 2026-07-31 as ex-date (actually cash payment)
• Fubon 2026 Q3 investor briefing scheduled Dec 2, after cutoff
• FSC Financial Holding capital adequacy amendments effective 2026-01-01
• Fubon 2881A preferred share issue and coupon rights
• Fubon 2881B preferred share issue and coupon rights
• Fubon 2881C preferred share issue and coupon rights
• www.irpro.co
• www.irpro.co
• fubon.irpro.co
• law.fsc.gov.tw
• www.cna.com.tw
• www.rmim.com.tw
• www.irpro.co
• www.irpro.co
• fubon.irpro.co
• law.moj.gov.tw
• law.fsc.gov.tw