AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.（日月光投資控股）

3711 · TWD · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

ASE：半導体後工程と設備投資の10年評価

10年期待年率0.20%

資本コスト11.50%

直近終値527.00 TWD2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

半導体パッケージ・検査と電子機器受託製造を５ケースで評価。転換社債の会計簿価と基準日の株数は代理値で、将来の転換・償還や株式報酬は予測です。台湾でETFが負担する配当源泉税は未反映です。

要約の補足

valuation_scope

2026-11-06に経済的に1株保有し売却・買戻し応札せず、2036-11-06に残存1株の経済価値を認識する旧株主。会社買戻しの受取は含めない。

starting_price_TWD

527

initial_company_market_cap_proxy_oku_TWD

23267.848368

weighted_10y_holder_terminal_oku

18985.3112772

weighted_timed_holder_payout_oku

4711.7338817

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8975.1960536

weighted_intrinsic_value_per_TWSE_share_TWD

203.281724

price_gap_TWD

-323.718276

price_gap_ratio

-0.614266179

expected_cashflow_IRR

0.001989287

weighted_average_scenario_IRR_reference_only

-0.031816193

weighted_company_2036_terminal_value_oku_not_same_as_old_holder_synthetic

19125.9733279

current_issued_marketcap_including_treasury_oku_reference

23652.247438

risk_recommendation

設備投資先行、高い地政学リスク、AI向け先端後工程の競争優位を同時評価。割安・割高は資本コストとROIICの感応度が大きい。

interpretation

為替・株式報酬・転換価額調整・実行株価は不確実。報告実績ではなく2036年までのモデル条件付き推定。

one_day_boundary_revision_vs_v2

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old_theoretical_value_TWD: 203.231633
revised_theoretical_value_TWD: 203.281724
difference_TWD: 0.050091
same_source_and_scenario_priors: はい
other_methodology_changes: いいえ

結論の補足

ASE 3711普通株2026-11-06終値527 TWDに対し、10年時点別旧株CFと再投資控除後2036年終価の5ケース確率加重理論価値203.28 TWD、乖離-61.43%、期待IRR0.2%。

事業

種類

台湾ASEH連結パッケージング/テストとUSI(環旭)EMS。ASX米国ADSとは同一普通株の預託証券。

company_customer_concentration_q3

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ATM_top5_pct: 0.46
ATM_top10_pct: 0.63
EMS_top5_pct: 0.7
EMS_top10_pct: 0.78

advanced_packaging_definition

2026年Q3のbumping/Flip Chip/WLP/SiP等の開示は先端包装と完全同義でなく、HBM関連・先端の正確な売上額は未公表。モデル内の先端比率は独自代理推定。

technology_drivers

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1: 2.5D/3D異種集積・FC/WLP/SiP
2: HBM関連パッケージ・テストの需要波及
3: 従来Wirebondと車載・産業
4: USI EMS電子機器組立

company_segment_elimination

ASE ATM operations view can include transactions with EMS and must not be simply added; use only consolidated external revenue packaging/testing/EMS/others in Q3 statement (sum=2441.61億TWD).

競争力・事業の質

advantages: 世界的後工程基盤、顧客認証とテスト設備、材料・設計を含むTurnkey、主要地域での生産網。
weaknesses: 顧客集中、設備償却、技術陳腐化、台湾地政学、電力・水・人件費、USD/TWD変動。
sbc: 2026Q1子会社含むSBC費用NT$338.594m (3.38594億TWD)、H1 restricted stock unearned benefits expense NT$338.567mは同一概念の部分表示で別加算しない。予測SBCは営業費用に含んでおり純利益へ戻さない。
acquisition: EugenLight 65.47%を2026年1月取得、少数株主利益はNCIとして控除。現場利益を子会社外部売上に重複計上しない。

業界と環境

cycle

先端需要加速・AI設備投資集中と、従来型封止/EMSの単価・稼働率下振れを分離して予測。

capex

2026Q3設備CAPEX US$2.104bn、2026年9か月キャッシュフロー上の有形固定資産取得NT$249.792bn。顧客設備・土地等の関連費用が多く営業CF>利益でもFCFが弱くなり得る。

competition

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1: Amkor
2: JCET
3: TSMC CoWoS等内製・競合/顧客補完
4: 各種OSAT
5: EMS peers

constraints

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1: 台湾海峡リスク
2: HBM向け半導体サイクル
3: 設備リードタイム
4: 物流・電源・水
5: China/US輸出制限
6: 顧客の内製化・競合設備能力

財務・資本配分

reported_2026_Q3_9months_TWD_oku

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期間末

2026-09-30

released_on

2026-10-29

reporting_basis

unaudited Taiwan-endorsed IFRS

nine_months_revenue

6088.87

nine_months_operating_income

717.65

nine_months_pretax

765.68

nine_months_tax

126.32

nine_months_consolidated_profit

639.36

nine_months_NCI_profit

17.43

nine_months_parent_profit

621.93

nine_months_CFO

1338.63

nine_months_cash_equipment_capex

2497.92

Q3_revenue

2441.61

Q3_operating_income

331.42

Q3_parent_profit

269.96

Q3_nci_profit

8.83

Q3_basic_weighted_average_shares

4403114522

Q3_diluted_weighted_average_shares

4532143664

Q3_EPS_TWD

6.13

Q3_diluted_EPS_TWD

5.84

parent_equity

4228.34

noncontrolling_equity

310.88

total_equity

4539.22

cash

884.21

other_current_financial_assets

195.17

total_reported_interest_bearing_debt

4064.61

sum_visible_interest_bearing_components

3944.03

debt_definition_gap

120.58

reported_debt_visible_breakdown_oku

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short_borrowings: 704.28
current_longterm_debts_bonds_and_loans: 51.41
bonds_payable_noncurrent: 422.01
longterm_bank_and_bills: 2766.33

unidentified_debt_oku

120.58

unidentified_debt_status

Q3 issuer total interest debt includes 120.58 oku more than separately printed summary headings; no verified classification, carried separately inside (not on top of) reported total.

net_debt_before_current_financial_assets

3180.4

net_debt_after_current_financial_assets

2985.23

balance_sheet_total_assets

12447.85

balance_sheet_total_liabilities

7908.63

parent_profit_after_SBC

はい

noncontrolling_interests_already_excluded_from_parent_profit

はい

reported_q3_segments_external_TWD_oku

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packaging: 1221.73
testing: 263.02
ems: 929.97
others: 26.89
consolidated: 2441.61

reported_9m_segments_external_TWD_oku

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packaging: 3105.41
testing: 710.08
ems: 2197.69
others: 75.69
consolidated: 6088.87

reported_H1_treasury_and_SBC

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treasury_subsidiary_shares_2026_06_30: 72941000
accounting_treasury_cost_TWD_oku: 19.59107
subsidiary_treasury_market_fair_value_2026_06_30_TWD_oku: 496.00224
forfeitable_unearned_benefits_SBC_expense_6months_TWD_oku: 3.38567
complete_consolidated_H1_SBC_expense_TWD_oku: 未確認
comment: H1の非稼得報酬評価はSBC総額全体とは限らずQ1のSBCに機械的加算しない。

bond_2026_details

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parent_cb_ISIN

XS3462009369

USD_face

1000000000

fixed_conversion_fx_USD_TWD

32.388

conversion_price_initial_TWD

927.2

bond_maturity

2031-08-10

conversion_period_start

2026-11-11

conversion_period_last_date

2031-07-31

model_conversion_date_conditional

2031-07-24

model_cash_redemption_settlement_assumed

2031-08-11

early_put_date

2029-08-10

zero_coupon

はい

principal_at_contract_fx_TWD_oku

323.88

initial_converted_new_shares_if_all

34930975

2031_adjusted_conversion_shares

scenario bond_events.derived from cumulative forecast cash dividends, 1pct deferred threshold and proxy 30-day market value

Q3_bonds_payable_total_TWD_oku

422.01

June_domestic_bonds_carrying_proxy_TWD_oku

149.85

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_proxy_oku

272.16

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_low_high_proxy_oku

1: 220
2: 315

unconfirmed_conversion_option_in_2026_09_30_equity_oku

未確認

unconfirmed_embedded_derivative_or_equity_split

未確認

do_not_recredit_initial_conversion_option

はい

cash_dividend_conversion_price_formula

NCP=OCP*(M-C)/M (M contractual market value before ex-date; C cash per share), cumulative 1pct threshold and carry-forward

cash_redemption_currency_linked_formula

Settlement Equivalent USD=USD principal*(32.3880 / Prevailing Rate on rate calculation date), 5 business days before payment. TWD economic equivalent=USD principal*32.3880

early_redemption_legal_notes

Holder put 2029-08-10; delisting, change of control protections; company cleanup call if over 90% redeemed/converted; conversion closed periods and notices restrict actual feasible dates

parent_cb_exact_Sept_book_oku

未確認

no_double_count

USD face is contractual repayment nominal, not additional loan draw after base date. Debt book carry already in total debt; no double face liability. CB option capital allocation already included in 9/30 owner equity, not added again on redemption. At conversion remaining liability only moves into ordinary equity.

old_USI_RMB_convertible

2026-01にUSISHのRMB債は転換・残額償還。親会社3711株式と誤認しない。転換によるUSI子会社株主比率/NCIに反映済みの9/30報告残高を出発点とする。

q3_cb_book_value_sensitivity_recomputed_all_ledgers

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as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

220

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

202.943841

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001871163

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8960.27802

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

-0.337883

by_scenario

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bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.0476483
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 322.826569
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.5661843
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3240225
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029262

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.0471759
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8214761
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0585239

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.4276007
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 9.8866028
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

272.16

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.281724

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001989287

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8975.1960536

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

by_scenario

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bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.4003554
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3555155
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.9306937
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.6031887
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.014569

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.4140221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.850862
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029138

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.7114221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.0850934
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

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as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

315

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.559241

weighted_expected_IRR

0.002086307

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8987.4488731

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

0.277517

by_scenario

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bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.6901013
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.7899493
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 279.2300756
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8324732
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0025014

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.7153199
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8749972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0050028

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.94453
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.2481174
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

book_sensitivity_method

Full rerun 55 periods per case; scenario starting reported total interest debt and parent equity held constant. Alternative CB book allocations are offset inside other identified debt, never added to 4064.61. 2031 conversion transfers only modeled liability book, while any initial option/embedded derivative valuation is not independently verified.

sensitivity_limitation

This is only an accounting allocation sensitivity, NOT independently inferred market option fair value nor a verified 2026 Q3 note classification.

calendar_maturity_weekend_status

Contractual 2031-08-10 is a Sunday; 2031-08-11 is model cash-settlement business day assumption, not an issuer settlement notice.

interest_bearing_debt_reconciliation

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日付: 2026-09-30
reported_total_oku: 4064.61
visible_sum_oku: 3944.03
unidentified_inside_total_oku: 120.58
計算式: 704.28+51.41+422.01+2766.33+120.58=4064.61
double_count_control: The 120.58 is part of 4064.61, not an extra addition; carried unclassified every year inside balance sheet total debt.

post_q3_2026_initial_bridge

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2026_Q4_revenue_model_oku

2400

Q4_parent_profit_model_oku

210

Q4_parent_SBC_equity_credit_model_oku

3.5

Q4_CFO_model_oku

650

Q4_equipment_capex_model_oku

700

Q4_bank_debt_net_draw_model_oku

Q4_day_count

2026_10_01_to_2026_11_06_inclusive_days

2026_11_07_to_2026_12_31_inclusive_days

base_date_equity_proxy_oku

4314.2041304

base_date_cash_proxy_oku

884.21

base_date_debt_proxy_oku

4085.7968027

base_date_nci_proxy_oku

314.378913

base_date_book_not_verified

はい

actual_post_Sept_capital_transactions

未確認

q4_2026_day_bridge

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q4_full_days

q3_end

2026-09-30

pre_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-10-01
2: 2026-11-06

pre_valuation_days

post_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-11-07
2: 2026-12-31

post_valuation_days

sum_days

base_date_2026_11_06_eod

はい

net_2026_Q4_profit_and_stock_comp_expense

Q4の利益は報告IFRS利益を模した予測。親会社SBC資本繰入額は2026Q4予測として純利益とは別に簿価へ加算。

model_clean_surplus_policy

E_end=E_begin+ordinary_parent_net_after_SBC+SBC_parent_equity_credit+cash_employee_options+parent_OCI+CB_REMAINING_LIABILITY_BOOK_ONLY_to_share_capital−company_cash_dividends−issuer_buybacks. No second credit of option initial equity. Restricted new shares dilute pre-terminal denominator; terminal explicitly assumes cash-buyback to hold share count flat after 2036.

model_cash_policy

cash_end=cash_begin + CFO−capex−issuer_dividends−issuer_buybacks+paid_options−NCI_dividends−currency_linked_CB_TWD_economic_redemption+CB_refinance+ordinary_bank_net_draw. Reported debt includes unidentified 120.58 oku bucket, not added externally. Subsidiary share awards credit NCI.

convertible_forecast_key_method

2029 put optional; 2031 conversion MUST occur no later than July31, modeled July24, remaining maturity Aug10 (cash model following business day Aug11). Forecast dividends adjust conversion price by prospectus anti-dilution and cumulative 1pct threshold using model M. Fixed FX32.388 for shares and USD redemption Settlement Equivalent; future spot is estimated, not CBC rate. Contract option capital not added at conversion.

FX_reference_date

2026-11-06

USD_TWD_CBC

32.768

tax_policy

全CFは台湾普通株主段階の源泉税前。ETF EWT実効控除率、米国・日本投資家税は未確認のため控除しない。

dividend_calendar_history

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2026_declared_pre_base_dividend: 6.6
2026_ex_dividend_observed_secondary: 2026-07-03
2026_payment_date_observed_secondary: 2026-07-31
excluded_after_2026_11_06: はい
2027_and_later_declared_as_of_base: いいえ

terminal_sbc_economic_sensitivity

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key: bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 46674.6385259
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 46642.9556944
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4443359935
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4476659935
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 46537.8632832
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15626.5633755
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15615.9560352
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.240249
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -1.037157
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: base
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 16079.1423285
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 16067.4914629
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 16040.6092671
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5369.9656948
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5366.0746447
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.088129
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.291472
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 4933.7037009
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 4930.0285165
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 4923.1761417
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1647.7134838
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1646.4860791
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.0278
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.079633
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 282.6191504
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 282.4051328
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 282.0655069
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3865731
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3150974
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.001619
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.004188
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

terminal_perpetuity_policy

Share-neutral terminal uses fixed 1.5m restricted shares + 2.2m paid-option shares per year after 2036 (forecast, no factual issuance promise); 2037 purchase at fundamental TV-based price and thereafter same growth as sustainable income. Free awards are expensed as SBC already; only parent SBC noncash part is added back once, then market purchase and paid exercise proceeds netted once. No-buyback sensitivity has actual growing share denominator and NO cash replacement purchase expense.

評価の前提と確認

twse_official_price: 527
株価基準日: 2026-11-06
volume_twse: 43145321
reference_issued_shares: 4488092493
proxy_economic_shares: 4415151493
market_cap_proxy_oku: 23267.848368
weighted_issuer_terminal_oku_separate: 19125.9733279
weighted_old_holder_terminal_oku: 18985.3112772
weighted_old_holder_payout_oku: 4711.7338817
weighted_old_holder_pv_oku: 8975.1960536
theoretical_value_per_share_TWD: 203.281724
gap_pct: -61.426618
discount_k: 0.115
weighted_expected_holder_xirr: 0.001989287
year_count_actual_36525: 10.001368925394
days_exact: 3653
market_multiple_used: いいえ
10y_economic_reference: old non-selling one share, synthetic rescaled by starting proxy denominator; terminal not in timed_cashflows
ADS_not_doubled: はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.50%

事業の質

0.74

事業の質の内訳

内容を開く

AI_advanced_packaging: 0.9
testing_knowhow: 0.83
EMS_diversification: 0.6
balance_sheet_and_capex: 0.6
geopolitical_exposure: 0.55

事業の質の根拠

設計・材料・顧客承認に参入障壁がありAI向け先端実装の成長は高い。一方TWD建て主上場株主の要求収益率は台湾海峡・輸出規制、集中顧客、米ドル建て大型投資、循環性を考慮した独自仮定11.5%。

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億TWD。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

シナリオ	確率	株主還元・追加負担	終価
AI高度実装・検査フル稼働	12.0%	7,504.89	46,416.98
先端後工程普及と設備収益化	23.0%	6,223.83	26,670.91
AI投資成長の平準化とEMS安定	40.0%	5,045.88	15,950.89
設備過剰・回復遅延	18.0%	1,816.98	4,894.35
半導体・地政学ショック	7.0%	489.43	280.36

AI高度実装・検査フル稼働（確率 12.0%）

AI/HPC・HBM関連の高密度後工程が高成長。CAPEX初期集中後に利益率が改善。2026年発行転換社債を2031年に100%転換する仮定。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

先端後工程普及と設備収益化（確率 23.0%）

先端パッケージ、テストの拡大。転換社債は2031年に半額転換・残額借換えとする条件付き仮定。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

AI投資成長の平準化とEMS安定（確率 40.0%）

設備増強の成果は出るが2026年の急成長率は収束。2031年の親会社CBは現金償還・銀行借換え。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

設備過剰・回復遅延（確率 18.0%）

高稼働を見込んだ大型投資が過剰となり投資回収が遅れる。CBは2029年の早期売戻しを全額行使と仮定。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

半導体・地政学ショック（確率 7.0%）

台湾海峡・貿易規制とAI投資の逆回転。配当縮小・銀行借入増。CBは2029年売戻し・借換え。

確率の根拠

基準日までの開示を背景にした分析上の相対確率。現地金融市場の観測インプライド確率ではない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

事業の詳細

種類

台湾ASEH連結パッケージング/テストとUSI(環旭)EMS。ASX米国ADSとは同一普通株の預託証券。

company_customer_concentration_q3

内容を開く

ATM_top5_pct: 0.46
ATM_top10_pct: 0.63
EMS_top5_pct: 0.7
EMS_top10_pct: 0.78

advanced_packaging_definition

2026年Q3のbumping/Flip Chip/WLP/SiP等の開示は先端包装と完全同義でなく、HBM関連・先端の正確な売上額は未公表。モデル内の先端比率は独自代理推定。

technology_drivers

内容を開く

1: 2.5D/3D異種集積・FC/WLP/SiP
2: HBM関連パッケージ・テストの需要波及
3: 従来Wirebondと車載・産業
4: USI EMS電子機器組立

company_segment_elimination

ASE ATM operations view can include transactions with EMS and must not be simply added; use only consolidated external revenue packaging/testing/EMS/others in Q3 statement (sum=2441.61億TWD).

競争力の詳細

advantages: 世界的後工程基盤、顧客認証とテスト設備、材料・設計を含むTurnkey、主要地域での生産網。
weaknesses: 顧客集中、設備償却、技術陳腐化、台湾地政学、電力・水・人件費、USD/TWD変動。
sbc: 2026Q1子会社含むSBC費用NT$338.594m (3.38594億TWD)、H1 restricted stock unearned benefits expense NT$338.567mは同一概念の部分表示で別加算しない。予測SBCは営業費用に含んでおり純利益へ戻さない。
acquisition: EugenLight 65.47%を2026年1月取得、少数株主利益はNCIとして控除。現場利益を子会社外部売上に重複計上しない。

業界の詳細

cycle

先端需要加速・AI設備投資集中と、従来型封止/EMSの単価・稼働率下振れを分離して予測。

capex

competition

内容を開く

1: Amkor
2: JCET
3: TSMC CoWoS等内製・競合/顧客補完
4: 各種OSAT
5: EMS peers

constraints

内容を開く

1: 台湾海峡リスク
2: HBM向け半導体サイクル
3: 設備リードタイム
4: 物流・電源・水
5: China/US輸出制限
6: 顧客の内製化・競合設備能力

財務・資本配分の詳細

reported_2026_Q3_9months_TWD_oku

内容を開く

期間末

2026-09-30

released_on

2026-10-29

reporting_basis

unaudited Taiwan-endorsed IFRS

nine_months_revenue

6088.87

nine_months_operating_income

717.65

nine_months_pretax

765.68

nine_months_tax

126.32

nine_months_consolidated_profit

639.36

nine_months_NCI_profit

17.43

nine_months_parent_profit

621.93

nine_months_CFO

1338.63

nine_months_cash_equipment_capex

2497.92

Q3_revenue

2441.61

Q3_operating_income

331.42

Q3_parent_profit

269.96

Q3_nci_profit

8.83

Q3_basic_weighted_average_shares

4403114522

Q3_diluted_weighted_average_shares

4532143664

Q3_EPS_TWD

6.13

Q3_diluted_EPS_TWD

5.84

parent_equity

4228.34

noncontrolling_equity

310.88

total_equity

4539.22

cash

884.21

other_current_financial_assets

195.17

total_reported_interest_bearing_debt

4064.61

sum_visible_interest_bearing_components

3944.03

debt_definition_gap

120.58

reported_debt_visible_breakdown_oku

内容を開く

short_borrowings: 704.28
current_longterm_debts_bonds_and_loans: 51.41
bonds_payable_noncurrent: 422.01
longterm_bank_and_bills: 2766.33

unidentified_debt_oku

120.58

unidentified_debt_status

Q3 issuer total interest debt includes 120.58 oku more than separately printed summary headings; no verified classification, carried separately inside (not on top of) reported total.

net_debt_before_current_financial_assets

3180.4

net_debt_after_current_financial_assets

2985.23

balance_sheet_total_assets

12447.85

balance_sheet_total_liabilities

7908.63

parent_profit_after_SBC

はい

noncontrolling_interests_already_excluded_from_parent_profit

はい

reported_q3_segments_external_TWD_oku

内容を開く

packaging: 1221.73
testing: 263.02
ems: 929.97
others: 26.89
consolidated: 2441.61

reported_9m_segments_external_TWD_oku

内容を開く

packaging: 3105.41
testing: 710.08
ems: 2197.69
others: 75.69
consolidated: 6088.87

reported_H1_treasury_and_SBC

内容を開く

treasury_subsidiary_shares_2026_06_30: 72941000
accounting_treasury_cost_TWD_oku: 19.59107
subsidiary_treasury_market_fair_value_2026_06_30_TWD_oku: 496.00224
forfeitable_unearned_benefits_SBC_expense_6months_TWD_oku: 3.38567
complete_consolidated_H1_SBC_expense_TWD_oku: 未確認
comment: H1の非稼得報酬評価はSBC総額全体とは限らずQ1のSBCに機械的加算しない。

bond_2026_details

内容を開く

parent_cb_ISIN

XS3462009369

USD_face

1000000000

fixed_conversion_fx_USD_TWD

32.388

conversion_price_initial_TWD

927.2

bond_maturity

2031-08-10

conversion_period_start

2026-11-11

conversion_period_last_date

2031-07-31

model_conversion_date_conditional

2031-07-24

model_cash_redemption_settlement_assumed

2031-08-11

early_put_date

2029-08-10

zero_coupon

はい

principal_at_contract_fx_TWD_oku

323.88

initial_converted_new_shares_if_all

34930975

2031_adjusted_conversion_shares

scenario bond_events.derived from cumulative forecast cash dividends, 1pct deferred threshold and proxy 30-day market value

Q3_bonds_payable_total_TWD_oku

422.01

June_domestic_bonds_carrying_proxy_TWD_oku

149.85

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_proxy_oku

272.16

Sept_parent_cb_liability_book_low_high_proxy_oku

1: 220
2: 315

unconfirmed_conversion_option_in_2026_09_30_equity_oku

未確認

unconfirmed_embedded_derivative_or_equity_split

未確認

do_not_recredit_initial_conversion_option

はい

cash_dividend_conversion_price_formula

NCP=OCP*(M-C)/M (M contractual market value before ex-date; C cash per share), cumulative 1pct threshold and carry-forward

cash_redemption_currency_linked_formula

Settlement Equivalent USD=USD principal*(32.3880 / Prevailing Rate on rate calculation date), 5 business days before payment. TWD economic equivalent=USD principal*32.3880

early_redemption_legal_notes

Holder put 2029-08-10; delisting, change of control protections; company cleanup call if over 90% redeemed/converted; conversion closed periods and notices restrict actual feasible dates

parent_cb_exact_Sept_book_oku

未確認

no_double_count

old_USI_RMB_convertible

2026-01にUSISHのRMB債は転換・残額償還。親会社3711株式と誤認しない。転換によるUSI子会社株主比率/NCIに反映済みの9/30報告残高を出発点とする。

q3_cb_book_value_sensitivity_recomputed_all_ledgers

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

220

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

202.943841

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001871163

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8960.27802

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

-0.337883

by_scenario

内容を開く

bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.0476483
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 322.826569
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.5661843
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3240225
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029262

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.0471759
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8214761
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0585239

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.4276007
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 9.8866028
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 281.0989972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 42.7810028

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

272.16

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.281724

weighted_expected_IRR

0.001989287

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8975.1960536

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

by_scenario

内容を開く

bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.4003554
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.3555155
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 278.9306937
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.6031887
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.014569

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.4140221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.850862
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.029138

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.7114221
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.0850934
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 302.5801014
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 21.2998986

内容を開く

as_of_2026_09_30_CB_book_proxy_oku

315

weighted_value_per_share_TWD

203.559241

weighted_expected_IRR

0.002086307

weighted_holder_PV_oku

8987.4488731

delta_vs_central_price_TWD

0.277517

by_scenario

内容を開く

bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 441.6901013
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.7899493
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0

mild_bull

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 279.2300756
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8324732
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0025014

base

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 185.7153199
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 323.8749972
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 0.0050028

mild_bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 62.94453
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

bear

present_value_per_TW_share_TWD: 10.2481174
bond_2029_2031_scenario_settlement_book_oku: 320.2229408
bond_book_early_put_gain_loss_oku: 3.6570592

book_sensitivity_method

sensitivity_limitation

This is only an accounting allocation sensitivity, NOT independently inferred market option fair value nor a verified 2026 Q3 note classification.

calendar_maturity_weekend_status

Contractual 2031-08-10 is a Sunday; 2031-08-11 is model cash-settlement business day assumption, not an issuer settlement notice.

interest_bearing_debt_reconciliation

内容を開く

日付: 2026-09-30
reported_total_oku: 4064.61
visible_sum_oku: 3944.03
unidentified_inside_total_oku: 120.58
計算式: 704.28+51.41+422.01+2766.33+120.58=4064.61
double_count_control: The 120.58 is part of 4064.61, not an extra addition; carried unclassified every year inside balance sheet total debt.

post_q3_2026_initial_bridge

内容を開く

2026_Q4_revenue_model_oku

2400

Q4_parent_profit_model_oku

210

Q4_parent_SBC_equity_credit_model_oku

3.5

Q4_CFO_model_oku

650

Q4_equipment_capex_model_oku

700

Q4_bank_debt_net_draw_model_oku

Q4_day_count

2026_10_01_to_2026_11_06_inclusive_days

2026_11_07_to_2026_12_31_inclusive_days

base_date_equity_proxy_oku

4314.2041304

base_date_cash_proxy_oku

884.21

base_date_debt_proxy_oku

4085.7968027

base_date_nci_proxy_oku

314.378913

base_date_book_not_verified

はい

actual_post_Sept_capital_transactions

未確認

q4_2026_day_bridge

内容を開く

q4_full_days

q3_end

2026-09-30

pre_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-10-01
2: 2026-11-06

pre_valuation_days

post_valuation_period_inclusive

1: 2026-11-07
2: 2026-12-31

post_valuation_days

sum_days

base_date_2026_11_06_eod

はい

net_2026_Q4_profit_and_stock_comp_expense

Q4の利益は報告IFRS利益を模した予測。親会社SBC資本繰入額は2026Q4予測として純利益とは別に簿価へ加算。

model_clean_surplus_policy

model_cash_policy

convertible_forecast_key_method

FX_reference_date

2026-11-06

USD_TWD_CBC

32.768

tax_policy

全CFは台湾普通株主段階の源泉税前。ETF EWT実効控除率、米国・日本投資家税は未確認のため控除しない。

dividend_calendar_history

内容を開く

2026_declared_pre_base_dividend: 6.6
2026_ex_dividend_observed_secondary: 2026-07-03
2026_payment_date_observed_secondary: 2026-07-31
excluded_after_2026_11_06: はい
2027_and_later_declared_as_of_base: いいえ

terminal_sbc_economic_sensitivity

内容を開く

key: bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 46674.6385259
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 46642.9556944
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4443359935
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4476659935
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 46537.8632832
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15626.5633755
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15615.9560352
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.240249
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -1.037157
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: base
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 16079.1423285
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 16067.4914629
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 16040.6092671
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5369.9656948
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5366.0746447
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.088129
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.291472
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 4933.7037009
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 4930.0285165
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 4923.1761417
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1647.7134838
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1646.4860791
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.0278
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.079633
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 282.6191504
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 282.4051328
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 282.0655069
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3865731
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3150974
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.001619
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.004188
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

terminal_perpetuity_policy

評価根拠の詳細

twse_official_price: 527
株価基準日: 2026-11-06
volume_twse: 43145321
reference_issued_shares: 4488092493
proxy_economic_shares: 4415151493
market_cap_proxy_oku: 23267.848368
weighted_issuer_terminal_oku_separate: 19125.9733279
weighted_old_holder_terminal_oku: 18985.3112772
weighted_old_holder_payout_oku: 4711.7338817
weighted_old_holder_pv_oku: 8975.1960536
theoretical_value_per_share_TWD: 203.281724
gap_pct: -61.426618
discount_k: 0.115
weighted_expected_holder_xirr: 0.001989287
year_count_actual_36525: 10.001368925394
days_exact: 3653
market_multiple_used: いいえ
10y_economic_reference: old non-selling one share, synthetic rescaled by starting proxy denominator; terminal not in timed_cashflows
ADS_not_doubled: はい

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

527

株数

4415151493

株価の出所

TWSE 2026-11-06 official 3711 close NT$527.00, volume 43,145,321

株価基準日

2026-11-06

株数の出所

2026-09-30 6-K total shares 4,488,092,493 including subsidiary holdings, less 2026-06-30 detailed filing subsidiary treasury 72,941,000; date mixed proxy, not confirmed 2026-11-06 exact

shares_as_of_proxy

2026-09-30 shares + 2026-06-30 treasury

issued_including_subsidiary_held_shares_2026_09_30

4488092493

subsidiary_treasury_shares_2026_06_30

72941000

subsidiary_treasury_shares_2026_09_30

未確認

shares_exact_2026_11_06

未確認

理由

11月6日当日発行・潜在株数、および9月末・11月6日の子会社保有株残高を一次資料で厳密照合できない。2026Q3の加重平均4,403,114,522株は期末株数ではない。

additional_ADS_share_count

one_NYSE_ASX_ADS_equals_TW_ordinary_shares

reference_FX_USD_TWD_2026_11_06

32.768

FX_primary

https://www.cbc.gov.tw/en/lp-700-2.html

ADS_ordinary_equivalence_note

ASX ADR 1口=台湾普通株2株。NYSE USD終値は台北13:30 CSTより後の取引。換算は参考にとどめ、NYSE分の発行株加算を禁止。

share_denominator_sensitivity

内容を開く

using_issued_all_shares: 4488092493
using_proxied_subsidiary_treasury_exclusion: 4415151493
difference_share_count: 72941000
reference_issue: 子会社持株は会計上自己株。配当・議決権の扱いは一般株式と異なり得るため外部受取株数で試算。

検証上の留意点

schema_compatibility

aiv-2-eu-pilot fields for Taiwan local price and monetary amounts in 億TWD, shares in physical shares; horizons cashflow_method overrides older 5yr lump rule.

time_axis

内容を開く

start: 2026-11-06
end: 2036-11-06
days: 3653
act_36525_years: 10.001368925394
stubs: 2026-11-07 through 2026-12-31 inclusive =55/92 Q4 days (2026-11-06 closing date excluded); full calendar years 2027–2035 (9 years); 2036-01-01 through 2036-11-06 inclusive =311/366 leap-year days (endpoint INCLUDED). Terminal valuation date itself remains 2036-11-06. 2036-11-07 to Dec31 excluded.
total_scenario_periods: 55
initial_stub_days: 55
initial_stub_q4_denominator_days: 92
initial_fraction_q4: 0.597826086957
final_stub_days: 311
final_stub_fy_denominator_days: 366
final_fraction_fy: 0.849726775956
full_middle_calendar_days: 3287
day_partition_sum_check: 3653
full_fy_rows_2027_to_2035: 45
reference_fy2036_rows: 5

monetary_unit

億TWD; all dates local Taiwan time; price TWD/one local ordinary share.

company_reported

内容を開く

Q3_revenue_oku: 2441.61
Q3_parent_net_oku: 269.96
Q3_parent_equity_oku: 4228.34
NCI_oku: 310.88
現金（億）: 884.21
debt_oku: 4064.61
subsidiary_held_treasury_6mo_shares: 72941000

segment_reconciliation

2026 9M packaging 3105.41+testing710.08+EMS2197.69+other75.69=6088.87, intercompany eliminated. Advanced vs legacy split is analyst estimate only.

accounting_equity_bridge

E_owner_end = E_owner_base + ΣNI_owner_after_SBC + ΣOCI + ΣSBC_owner_equity_credit + Σpaid_employee_options + ΣCB_book_liability_on_conversion − Σissuer_dividend − Σissuer_buyback.

company_vs_holder

payout_oku = sum of positive dated dividends for one non-selling share multiplied by N0 shares; it is NOT issuer dividend+buyback−issuance. Issuer buyback only changes company equity and denominator, not non-tendering holder cash.

terminal_value_rule

2036-11-06 TTM parent NI after SBC -> 2037 NI less needed reinvestment plus one parent SBC noncash addback plus option cash proceeds minus actual market cost of repurchasing same 3.7m shares to neutralize awards; solve implicit justified value. No simultaneous future dilution and full cash buyback charge; debt and NCI already accounted in NI.

bond_no_double_count

Q3 CB liability is inside reported total interest debt; initial option allocated to equity or derivatives is not separately confirmed and MUST NOT be credited again. At 2029 put or 2031 residual maturity, pay Settlement Equivalent USD based on fixed TWD 32.388 and prospective prevailing FX; refinancing replaces liability once. Conversion modeled 2031-07-24 within legal period, parent equity receives remaining liability book only, shares computed at cumulatively dividend-adjusted strike. Unknown Q3 debt gap 120.58 oku remains inside total as separate bucket.

earnings_and_NCI

Reported parent profit is already after subsidiary minority profit. Subsidiary RMB convertible was settled in Jan2026 and ensuing minority stake is in Q3 balance-sheet NCI; no second deduction.

SBC_no_double_count

IFRS net retains SBC expense. Through 2036 restricted 1.5m and paid-option 2.2m new shares per full year are in denominator and company equity/cash. Starting 2037 assume 3.7m market purchases annually to neutralize dilution: net+sbc_parent_non_cash_credit+option_cash - gross market_buyback_cash - growth reinvestment. Terminal never simultaneously subtracts dilution plus same future repurchase. NCI SBC addback is not assigned to parent.

sub_treasury

Subsidiaries hold proxy72,941,000 shares (last detailed June2026), not a regular public-market buyback. 9/30 exact and Nov6 outstanding shares unknown, sensitivity documented.

provisional_dividend_dates

2027–2036 first Friday July ex, last Friday July payment, prior business day at least 30 days before ex for zero cash recheck; NONE announced on 2026-11-06.

withholding

Tax before TWSE local shareholder withholding. EWT effective dividend tax unknown; US and Japanese investor tax omitted.

expected_IRR_not_weighted_scenario_IRR

Expected cash-flow IRR 0.001989287 vs probability-weighted scenario IRR reference -0.031816193; different statistics.

scenario_prob_sum

weighted_present_value_reconciliation

内容を開く

weighted_PV_oku: 8975.1960536
weighted_terminal_PV_oku: 6391.5226528
weighted_dividend_PV_oku: 2583.6734008
difference_oku: -2.0E-8

uncertain

内容を開く

item: 2026-11-06 real issued shares and subsidiary treasury
値: 未確認
理由: 2026 9/30 total reported shares and 6/30 treasury detail only; 11/6 exact unverified.

item: 2026 Q3 full reviewed IFRS footnote SBC and CB liability split
値: 未確認
理由: Oct29 company summary unaudited; full 9mo review/share-based balance and CB option carry split not confirmed by base date.

item: 2026Q4 audited actual
値: 未確認
理由: as of date 2026-11-06 not published; opening balance interpolation is projection.

item: 2027–2036 declared dividends and ex dates
値: 未確認
理由: not yet declared; use only assumed dates and zero cash recheck events.

item: 2029 CB put and 2031 conversion exercise fraction
値: 未確認
理由: bondholder choices depend on future share price, contract adjustment and credit; scenario assumptions only.

item: 2029 and 2031 exchange rates and future CB conversion price adjustments
値: 未確認
理由: unknown; contractual fixed FX32.388 and modeled future Prevailing Rate, provisional market price M and dividends, cumulative CP adjustment and 1pct threshold are now in bond schedules; actual issuer notices and final terms unknown.

item: EWT ETF effective after withholding/dividend tax
値: 未確認
理由: not verified for ETF domicile, treaty and fund-specific arrangements; modeled pre-tax.

item: 2036 realized cash, debt, NCI and terminal valuation
値: 未確認
理由: all contingent forward-looking projections.

bond_contract_confirmations

内容を開く

prospectus_conversion_last: 2031-07-31
model_safe_conversion_date: 2031-07-24
maturity: 2031-08-10
2029_put: 2029-08-10
currency_linked_settlement: USD payable = USD face*32.3880/future prevailing rate
dividend_adjustment: CPnew=CPold*(M-C)/M and 1pct cumulative adjustment threshold, modeled proxy M

algorithm_validation

内容を開く

five_scenarios: 5
total_part_period_rows: 55
unidentified_Q3_debt_remains_inside_total: はい
contract_conversion_date_within_period: はい
terminal_2037_employee_shares_neutralised: はい
scenario_11_periods_each: はい
10_dividend_cashflows_each: はい
no_terminal_in_timed_cashflows: はい
book_cash_debt_nci_share_rollforward_pass: はい
timestamps_in_0_to_10_00137: はい
probability_sum_one: はい
bond_equity_debt_cash_conservation_pass: はい
date_split_55_3287_311_pass: はい

SBC_2037_dilution_and_cash_compensation_check

内容を開く

adopted

cash_market_repurchase_share_neutral_2037_and_beyond

future_parent_ordinary_SBC_expense_remains_in_reported_NI

はい

parent_noncash_SBC_addback_once_in_terminal_FCFE

はい

future_company_market_buyback_shares_equal_restricted_plus_paid_option_shares

はい

future_additional_ownership_dilution_charged_in_main_terminal

いいえ

no_repurchase_dilution_risk_sensitivity_provided

はい

employee_share_transfer_status

FORECAST, not pre-2036 confirmed grants or vesting

2037_per_case_sensitivities

内容を開く

key: bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 46674.6385259
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 46642.9556944
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4443359935
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4476659935
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 46537.8632832
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15626.5633755
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 15615.9560352
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.240249
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -1.037157
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bull
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 26893.5207247
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 26874.6275096
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4455702762
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4489002762
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 26822.1884306
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8978.9273156
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 8972.6194466
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.142869
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.539408
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: base
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 16079.1423285
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 16067.4914629
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 16040.6092671
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5369.9656948
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 5366.0746447
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.088129
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.291472
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: mild_bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 4933.7037009
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 4930.0285165
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 4923.1761417
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1647.7134838
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 1646.4860791
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.0278
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.079633
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

内容を開く

key: bear
future_awards_policy_period: 2037 onward
annual_free_restricted_shares_fixed: 1500000
annual_cash_option_shares_fixed: 2200000
one_year_new_share_count: 3700000
share_neutral_issuer_fair_market_buyback_terminal_company_oku: 282.6191504
without_future_market_buyback_fixed_annual_dilution_company_value_at_2036_oku: 282.4051328
without_buyback_valuation_formula: Σ[t=1..500] 2037_distributable_cash*(1+g)^(t-1)*(N_2036/(N_2036+3.7m*t))/(1+k)^t; residual after 500 years negligible
without_buyback_economic_shares_2037: 4454351493
without_buyback_economic_shares_2046: 4487651493
with_market_buyback_125pct_fair_terminal_company_oku: 282.0655069
share_neutral_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3865731
no_buyback_old_holder_synthetic_PV_oku: 94.3150974
price_effect_no_buyback_TWD: -0.001619
price_effect_25pct_buyback_premium_TWD: -0.004188
mutually_exclusive: NO-buyback dilution scenario does not also subtract market repurchase cash; neutral scenario buys same issued number and does not impose perpetual dilution again.

warning

Do not compare parent share compensation expense with full group issuance where subsidiary shares/NCI also differ. Parent credit fraction .72 is a declared proxy.

bond_2026_reverified

内容を開く

original_primary_prospectus_URL

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/ASE%20Technology%20Holding%20Co.%2C%20Ltd.%20-%20Offering%20Memorandum.ashx?App=Prospectus&FileID=70711

発行済み

2026-08-10

conversion_start

2026-11-11

contract_last_conversion

2031-07-31

forecast_conversion_date

2031-07-24

contract_maturity_date

2031-08-10

2029_holder_put

2029-08-10

dividend_adjustment_formula

NCP=OCP*(M-C)/M with cumulative 1% threshold, rounding at two decimals

prevailing_fx

contract spot fixing 11am Taipei time at rate calculation date five business days before USD amount due

USD_cash

USD original principal * 32.3880 / settlement prevailing TWD per USD

2031_maturity_cash_settlement_date_assumed

2031-08-11 due weekend, not company confirmed

equity_option_double_credit

いいえ

initial_option_or_embedded_derivative_classification_verified

いいえ

estimated_CB_book_2026_09_30_central_oku

272.16

book_range_oku

1: 220
2: 315

cash_dividend_and_option_closed_period_must_be_rechecked

はい

debt_2026_q3_missing_component_rolling

内容を開く

report_date

2026-09-30

reported_total_interest_debt_oku

4064.61

visible_component_oku

内容を開く

short_term: 704.28
LT_current: 51.41
LT_bond: 422.01
LT_loans_bills: 2766.33

unidentified_component_oku

120.58

classification_primary_not_confirmed

はい

within_total_not_added_again

はい

forecast_unknown_bucket_constant_oku

120.58

continuity_checked_all_periods

はい

recomputed_prior_to_release

はい

v3_calendar_boundary_correction

内容を開く

result: all scenarios rerun from day-level assumptions including financing and share dates
as_of_2026_11_06_closing_before_post_valuation_earning: はい
q4_2026_days_total: 92
prevaluation_2026_10_01_to_11_06_inclusive_days: 37
postvaluation_2026_11_07_to_12_31_inclusive_days: 55
initial_stub_fraction: 0.597826086957
middle_2027_to_2035_days: 3287
terminal_2036_01_01_to_11_06_inclusive_days: 311
terminal_stub_fraction: 0.849726775956
sum_days: 3653
last_2036_horizon_day_included: はい
first_2026_11_06_horizon_day_excluded: はい
2036_11_07_to_12_31_post_horizon_days_excluded: 55
2036_TTM_parent_NI_formula: NI_FY2035*55/365 + NI_2036_Jan1_to_Nov6_311days
2037_NI_and_reinvestment: Use 2036-11-06 last 12-month NI -> 2037 12 month-equivalent forward (1+g), minus growth reinvestment and expected 2037 market buyback compensation; no 311-day horizon NI incorrectly used as full-year.

v3_vs_v2_quantitative_reconciliation

内容を開く

baseline_version

ASE 3711 timed holder v2

revised_version

ASE 3711 timed holder v3 day boundaries

理由

v2 period includes Nov6 twice in pre+post and excludes final Nov6; v3 starts Nov7, ends Nov6 inclusive

old_price_TWD

203.231633

new_price_TWD

203.281724

price_change_TWD

0.050091

old_weighted_PV_oku

8972.9844841

new_weighted_PV_oku

8975.1960536

old_expected_IRR

0.001959213

new_expected_IRR

0.001989287

initial_stub

previous_days: 56
corrected_days: 55
q4_total_days: 92

final_stub

previous_days: 310
corrected_days: 311
leap_year_total_days: 366

net_total_calendar_days

3653

per_case_recalculation

内容を開く

scenario: bull
prob: 12.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 4494.495804
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 4508.994177
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 3512.681904
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 3524.02342
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 36.020478
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 36.136673
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 17862.156242
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 17871.1495343
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 1653.8434684
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 1653.8434684
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 8678.137919
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 8670.2433636
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 731.3992156
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 731.5330048
ending_shares_old: 4439684255
ending_shares_new: 4439659935
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 3405.7012459
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 3407.2486124
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 804.4397263
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 804.8092309
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 40.5136196
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 40.5322489
holder_dividends_old_oku: 7504.8504629
holder_dividends_new_oku: 7504.8904338
holder_terminal_old_oku: 46395.644612
holder_terminal_new_oku: 46416.9785502
holder_PV_old_oku: 19481.290586
holder_PV_new_oku: 19488.4943828
one_share_value_old_TWD: 441.2371946
one_share_value_new_TWD: 441.4003554
IRR_old: 0.09364522
IRR_new: 0.09368973

内容を開く

scenario: mild_bull
prob: 23.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 2928.262186
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 2937.708193
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 2207.648882
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 2214.781008
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 28.296515
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 28.387794
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 13451.7865846
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 13456.6525942
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 1299.2055925
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 1299.2055925
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 8685.6110403
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 8679.8651454
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 648.3505916
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 648.4161249
ending_shares_old: 4452010333
ending_shares_new: 4452002762
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 2150.7047351
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 2151.481658
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 500.2472499
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 500.4304903
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 23.1247323
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 23.1331253
holder_dividends_old_oku: 6223.7863431
holder_dividends_new_oku: 6223.8260069
holder_terminal_old_oku: 26661.2342282
holder_terminal_new_oku: 26670.9107175
holder_PV_old_oku: 12311.9335769
holder_PV_new_oku: 12315.2126892
one_share_value_old_TWD: 278.8564242
one_share_value_new_TWD: 278.9306937
IRR_old: 0.03831333
IRR_new: 0.03834599

内容を開く

scenario: base
prob: 40.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 1950.475848
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 1956.767706
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 1413.144223
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 1417.713792
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 23.109535
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 23.184082
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 10710.768687
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 10713.1117046
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 1061.0506785
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 1061.0506785
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 7437.0798544
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 7432.3542565
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 584.5045243
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 584.5221557
ending_shares_old: 4450651493
ending_shares_new: 4450651493
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 1414.5784355
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 1414.9645249
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 284.8420602
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 284.9211997
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 13.7243865
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 13.7281324
holder_dividends_old_oku: 5045.8382882
holder_dividends_new_oku: 5045.875438
holder_terminal_old_oku: 15946.536911
holder_terminal_new_oku: 15950.8892955
holder_PV_old_oku: 8184.8245976
holder_PV_new_oku: 8186.309966
one_share_value_old_TWD: 185.3803796
one_share_value_new_TWD: 185.4140221
IRR_old: -0.0113389
IRR_new: -0.01131582

内容を開く

scenario: mild_bear
prob: 18.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 829.027562
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 831.701844
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 465.480187
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 466.996586
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 16.880399
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 16.934852
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 8486.8880965
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 8486.1965099
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 775.0462939
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 775.0462939
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 6547.8095525
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 6545.4413816
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 482.0044056
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 481.9601791
ending_shares_old: 4450651493
ending_shares_new: 4450651493
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 483.4815535
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 483.5029627
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 90.4172768
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 90.4214483
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 4.1711223
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 4.171307
holder_dividends_old_oku: 1816.9469726
holder_dividends_new_oku: 1816.9803881
holder_terminal_old_oku: 4894.1339834
holder_terminal_new_oku: 4894.3507024
holder_PV_old_oku: 2768.7141338
holder_PV_new_oku: 2768.8042901
one_share_value_old_TWD: 62.7093801
one_share_value_new_TWD: 62.7114221
IRR_old: -0.12865338
IRR_new: -0.12864959

内容を開く

scenario: bear
prob: 7.00%
initial_days_v2: 56
initial_days_v3: 55
initial_2026_net_profit_old_oku: 127.826087
initial_2026_net_profit_new_oku: 125.5434783
initial_2026_sbc_expense_old_oku: 2.9826087
initial_2026_sbc_expense_new_oku: 2.9293478
initial_2026_CB_interest_old_oku: 1.6317296
initial_2026_CB_interest_new_oku: 1.6025915
initial_2026_equity_ending_old_oku: 4444.1606522
initial_2026_equity_ending_new_oku: 4441.84
initial_2026_cash_ending_old_oku: 884.21
initial_2026_cash_ending_new_oku: 884.21
final_days_v2: 310
final_days_v3: 311
final_2036_operating_profit_old_oku: 271.210195
final_2036_operating_profit_new_oku: 272.085067
final_2036_net_profit_old_oku: 8.663848
final_2036_net_profit_new_oku: 8.70968
final_2036_sbc_expense_old_oku: 12.216774
final_2036_sbc_expense_new_oku: 12.256183
final_2036_ending_equity_old_oku: 6535.0144919
final_2036_ending_equity_new_oku: 6532.8826965
final_2036_ending_cash_old_oku: 700
final_2036_ending_cash_new_oku: 700
final_2036_ending_debt_old_oku: 5647.8130194
final_2036_ending_debt_new_oku: 5646.2014264
final_2036_ending_nci_old_oku: 417.6516574
final_2036_ending_nci_new_oku: 417.5731038
ending_shares_old: 4450651493
ending_shares_new: 4450651493
2037_sustainable_cash_old_oku: 30.0401375
2037_sustainable_cash_new_oku: 29.9576299
2037_growth_reinvestment_old_oku: 2.0157836
2037_growth_reinvestment_new_oku: 2.0044435
2037_buyback_compensation_old_oku: 0.2377198
2037_buyback_compensation_new_oku: 0.2370669
holder_dividends_old_oku: 489.4139673
holder_dividends_new_oku: 489.434328
holder_terminal_old_oku: 281.1370426
holder_terminal_new_oku: 280.3648782
holder_PV_old_oku: 445.5215419
holder_PV_new_oku: 445.27215
one_share_value_old_TWD: 10.0907419
one_share_value_new_TWD: 10.0850934
IRR_old: -0.34548803
IRR_new: -0.34564692

source_confirmed_unchanged_from_v2

The Oct 29 2026 Q3 SEC Form 6-K historical figures stay unchanged; calendar correction affects model estimates only.

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