AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (common ordinary)
005930 · KRW · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
半導体の循環を見ながら、設備投資と普通株主への還元を評価する
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
Samsung Electronicsはメモリー、半導体受託製造、スマートフォン、ディスプレイなどを持つ総合電子企業です。2026年の高いメモリー利益率をそのまま10年間続けず、中立ケースでは連結営業利益率が2027年約35%から2029年約20%へ低下し、2036年約28%へ回復すると仮定します。2027〜2035年の主要な事業予測は旧モデルと同水準で、今回の数値差は主に評価期間の端数修正によります。将来の利益率、設備投資、終価、還元や株式報酬は仮定です。11月6日の株数は11月4日時点の代理値で、株価は二次情報での照合です。ETFの現地源泉税・費用・将来為替は未反映です。
要約の補足
- focus
EWY Korea country ETF due diligence: single common equity exposure, NOT ETF fund NAV or ETF taxation
- investment_thesis
HBM4 and high-end DRAM can generate exceptional earnings, but trough memory prices, high fabrication CAPEX, foundry yield, customer mix and capital allocation cause extreme intrinsic value dispersion.
- ordinary_vs_preferred
KRX prices differ materially; only common initial float is purchased. Preferred economic profit and dividend excluded from ordinary attribution and preferred buyback is issuer cash without original common holder proceeds.
- 2026Q3_dividend
September30 record date precedes Nov6 entry; Nov27 cash 30.003T is company payable but zero cash to initial holder cohort.
- 2026_15T_comp_treasury
Already purchased by Oct6, held for employee compensation, not post-Nov6 cancellation return; grants and funding cannot be duplicated.
- 2026_H1_SBC
16.593614T H1 total equity line is distinct from current-period P&L expense, prior accrued liability transfers, and 1.106176T grant treasury acquisition-cost transfer. Note 17C/D/E/F are not blindly summed to the capital transaction.
- SBC
Expensed once within projected segment EBIT/NI, credited as noncash capital in parent equity and CFO bridge. H1 capital transaction 16.593614T is not presumed to be current standalone P&L expense. Existing shares grant with dilution; unfunded grants create cash purchase and old-holder tender.
- foreign_tax
Actual Korean dividend withholding and refunded amounts recognized in EWY are NOT validated. All stock-holder cash flows are gross before source tax, ETF fee/FX, US and Japanese taxes.
- sensitivity
Valuation highly sensitive to 2033-2036 normalized memory margins, 2037 CAPEX, tax, cost of capital and future dilution; market PER convergence not used.
- important_unconfirmed
内容を開く
- 1
2026Q3 independent external-review financial statements as of cutoff
- 2
2026-Nov6 exact ordinary treasury after Nov4
- 3
direct official KRX historical common/preferred closing quotations
- 4
Q3 NCI balance and group parent-equity split
- 5
quarter 3 actual separately itemized SBC expense
- 6
Q4 2026 and late January 2027 final shareholder return resolutions
- 7
EWY realized Korean withholding/reclaims
- investment_thesis_ja
HBM4・先端DRAMの高収益は期待できる一方、メモリ市況反転と巨額設備投資が継続価値を左右。2036年の持続利益と再投資必要額から評価し市場PER回帰を採用しない。
- dual_class_ja
普通株005930のみを旧株主として評価。議決権のない優先株005935は別価格・別配当・別利益帰属として管理。
- dividend_and_buybacks_ja
9月末に権利確定した2026Q3の4,601ウォン配当は2026年11月6日新規保有者には帰属しない。10月6日までの15兆ウォン自己株取得は従業員株式報酬目的で既済。
- fund_tax_ja
EWYの実際の韓国源泉税・還付率は未確認。現金受取は韓国税前のウォン建て、ETF手数料・為替・米日投資家税は別途。
- time_axis_correction
Old v1/v2 included entry date 2026-11-06 in forecast (56d) and excluded 2036-11-06 (310d); v3 forecasts 2026-11-07..2026-12-31 (55d) and 2036-01-01..2036-11-06 (311d). 2027-35 assumptions remain fixed, initial/final rate-derived flows pro-rated, event-driven distributions held discrete.
- research_contamination_controls
2026Q3 company results vs H1 reviewed, 2026-11-06 treasury proxy, sector/competitor models vs issuer facts, and analyst CAPEX split are labeled; bank forecasts/ETF tax not used as actual.
- 2026_55day_SBC_change
旧モデルの56日期間に置いた未確認の株式報酬費用を、各ケースの年間仮定に基づく55日分へ修正。2036年末も311日で扱い、費用・資本・現金を接続しています。
結論の補足
- price_KRW
- 188700
- fair_value_ordinary_per_share_KRW
- 177169.173055
- expected_IRR_from_weighted_event_cashflows
- 0.103448713
- PV_to_market_price_ratio
- 0.938893339
- expected_NPV_for_original_ordinary_cohort_oku
- -658359.044613
- probability_weighted_case_IRR_arithmetic_average_NOT_used
- はい
- probability_weighted_simple_IRR_comparison_only
- 0.090023657
- publication_status
Windows側で財務台帳・イベント・CFの独立検算を実施。株数・価格原票と将来の事業前提には未確認事項があります。
- expected_irr
- 0.103448713
- value_per_share_KRW
- 177169.173055
事業
メモリーと半導体受託製造、モバイル機器、ディスプレイ、車載・音響事業を持ちます。
競争力・事業の質
製造規模、技術、販売網に強みがある一方、先端メモリーの競争、顧客集中、投資負担があります。
業界と環境
HBM・汎用DRAM・NANDの需給と、端末や受託製造の収益性を分けて考えます。
財務・資本配分
普通株と優先株、配当、消却用と従業員向けの自己株、設備投資を分けて扱います。
評価の前提と確認
持続的な事業キャッシュフローに余剰資産を加え、負債・非支配持分・未払配当・将来の従業員株式交付を考慮して終価を試算します。
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 11.20%
- day_count
actual days divided by 365.25
- 種類
nominal KRW common shareholder required return before personal / fund tax
- terminal_WACC_is_scenario_specific
- はい
- reasoning
High HBM earnings volatility, DRAM/NAND price cycles, foundry execution and geopolitical technology risk; assumption not market-calibrated PER
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億KRW。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 強気 | 10.0% | 8,339,987.58 | 40,477,903.14 |
| やや強気 | 20.0% | 6,770,296.85 | 27,336,143.58 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 5,362,952.02 | 19,605,519.40 |
| やや弱気 | 22.0% | 3,572,049.76 | 9,880,766.64 |
| 弱気 | 8.0% | 2,172,065.15 | 4,038,396.77 |
金額の単位
億KRW (10^8 KRW)
事業の詳細
- revenue_divisions
内容を開く
- 1
Memory HBM/DRAM/NAND
- 2
Foundry & System LSI
- 3
Mobile MX and Networks
- 4
TV appliance VD DA
- 5
Samsung Display SDC
- 6
Harman
- IFRS_Korean_consolidation
K-IFRS consolidated subsidiary revenues and operating profits, with intersegment eliminations explicit; not a holding company FVTPL model.
- memory_sales_split_2026Q3_company_not_disclosed
- はい
- 2026Q3_disclosed_DS_T
内容を開く
- revenue
- 147.1
- operating_profit
- 106.5
- analyst_memory_subdivision_sales_T_NOT_COMPANY_REPORTED
- 140.7
- memory_subdivision_sales_company_confirmed
- 未確認
- 2026Q3_disclosed_DX_T
- revenue
- 52.1
- operating_profit
- -0.8
- MX_network_sales
- 37.7
- 2026Q3_disclosed_SDC_T
- revenue
- 8
- operating_profit
- 1.1
- 2026Q3_disclosed_Harman_T
- revenue
- 4.3
- operating_profit
- 0.6
- 2026Q3_intersegment_elimination_T
- -16.2
- foundry_and_System_LSI_scenario_operating_forecast_not_official
- はい
- 2026_expected_CAPEX_T
- 84.4
- Q3_capex_T
- 29
- 2026_9month_capex_T
- 56.9
- 2026_annual_costs_highly_cyclical
- はい
- product_level_55_period_subsegments
HBM and server DRAM separately within HBM_server_DRAM; Foundry and System LSI within Foundry_System_LSI, with an explicitly hypothetical 70/30 split; no change to group cash or reported division results.
競争力の詳細
- positive
- 1
Memory IP in HBM4 and 1c DRAM, large manufacturing scale
- 2
Vertical foundry/display/mobile integration
- 3
Strong Q3 net liquidity with short-term instruments
- negative
内容を開く
- 1
Q3 55% consolidated margin unlikely to be a perpetual EBIT margin
- 2
AI server cycle customer concentration
- 3
High sustainable fab CAPEX and depreciation
- 4
2nm foundry competitive execution
- 5
KRW FX and trade restrictions
- 6
2026 performance-linked employee treasury grants and awards
- specific_risks
内容を開く
- 1
DRAM cycle can reverse prior year pricing rapidly
- 2
HBM technology and fab qualification
- 3
NAND capacity cyclicality
- 4
Foundry yields and non-linear wafer cost
- 5
Mobile competitive margin and intersegment devices
- 6
NCI and preferred class claims separated
業界の詳細
- HBM_DRAM_NAND
DRAM supply oligopoly, AI/HBM server demand, advanced packaging and equipment investment, cyclicality; separate revenue/earnings forecasts not reported source breakdown
- foundry
Foundry competition, process yield, EUV and capex burden; profit below DS disclosed only assumed in models
- display
OLED displays cyclical customer inventory and panel pricing
- mobile
Samsung Galaxy premium and AI phone mix, global unit demand, component cost rises and competitive pricing
- consumer_appliance
Slow replacement cycles, logistic/energy/wage costs
- Harman
Automotive electronics long cycle, customer concentration
- currency
KRW vs USD trade and HBM server pricing; no user-level FX forecast in KRW model
財務・資本配分の詳細
- starting_share_book
内容を開く
- common_issued_shares
- 5846278608
- common_treasury_Oct12
- 136727099
- common_treasury_granted_Oct30_disclosed_Nov4
- 4690
- common_treasury_11_04
- 136722409
- common_outstanding_11_04_proxy_for_11_06
- 5709556199
- common_11_06_exact_confirmed
- いいえ
- preferred_issued_shares
- 802371203
- preferred_treasury_shares
- 0
- ordinary_P_and_L_rights
one ordinary economic claim on owner profit after allocating preferred fraction and preference; voting right
- preferred_P_and_L_rights
nonvoting, noncumulative, 1 KRW annual extra at 100 KRW par as stated in Samsung reviewed statements (annual preferred DPS +1 won, not necessarily every quarterly DPS)
- Q3_record_date_eligible_common_shares_implied
- 5718607814
- Q3_eligible_shares_not_equal_11_06_outstanding
- はい
- Oct6_2026_15T_employee_purpose_completed_shares
- 56856305
- Oct6_2026_15T_employee_purpose_completed_T_KRW
- 14.99999989975
- Oct1_Oct6_share_buyback_only_after_Q3_balance_T_KRW
- 1.38515192825
- future_cancellation_of_2026_employee_treasury_assumed
- いいえ
- preferred_nonvoting_par_dividend_annual_extra_KRW
- 1
- no_common_005930_preferred_005935_price_equating
- はい
- netcash_proxy_valuation_day_oku
- 2047016.681503
- source_reported_Q3_group_equity_oku
- 6141116
- NCI_book_proxy_oku
- 142449.36
- 2026Q3_company_dividend_record_before_entry_preholder_cash_oku
- 300030.244572
- 2026Q3_group_financial_investments_distinct_from_cash_oku
- 972416
- proportional_seller_assumption_all_case_and_all_issuer_common_buyback_dates
- はい
- old_initial_holder_never_tenders_preferred
- はい
- employee_grants_treasury_first_cancellation_is_not_assumed
- はい
- after_2036_existing_inventory_grants_reduce_old_share_value_by_dilution
- はい
- after_2036_only_unfunded_shares_trigger_new_cash_buyback
- はい
- debt_is_outstanding_total_group_financial_debt_proxy_not_the_supplemental_trade_payables
- はい
- 2026Q3_capex_not_annualized_indefinitely
- はい
評価根拠の詳細
- starting_ordinary_per_share_market_price_KRW
- 188700
- starting_preferred_market_price_KRW
- 150300
- market_per_extrapolated_from_Q3_earnings
- いいえ
- terminal_PE_convergence_used
- いいえ
- terminal_operating_DCF_uses_2033_2036_four_year_normalized_OP
- はい
- non_operating_initial_investments_97_2416T_not_also_in_cash
- はい
- terminal_reinvestment_maintenance_plus_growth_capex_and_WC
- はい
- terminal_risk_dependent_k_and_g
- はい
- preferred_class_cannot_be_added_to_common_economic_equity
- はい
- already_funded_employee_treasury_not_recharged_as_new_cash_but_not_free_of_dilution
- はい
- cutoff_2026_11_06_to_2036_11_06_days
- 3653
- end_of_horizon_unpaid_2036_Q3_dividend_handled_as_accrued_receivable_not_in_CFs
- はい
- no_arbitrary_constant_discount_to_book_equity
- はい
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 188700
- 株数
- 5709556199
- ordinary_original_cohort_market_cap_oku
- 10773932.547513
- preferred_market_cap_oku_at_distinct_price
- 1205963.918109
- total_observed_common_plus_preferred_market_cap_oku
- 11979896.465622
- reported_interim
内容を開く
- 2026Q3_company_reporting_vs_reviewed_June
内容を開く
- 状態
Q3 company earnings-call results (external review incomplete as of Oct29), H1 externally reviewed
- 3Q_sales_T_KRW
- 195.3
- 3Q_operating_income_T_KRW
- 107.4
- 3Q_parent_NI_T_KRW
- 75.2
- 3Q_total_group_NI_T_KRW
- 75.1
- 3Q_noncontrolling_profit_T_KRW
- -0.1
- 3Q_profit_before_tax_T_KRW
- 98.5
- 3Q_tax_T_KRW
- 23.4
- 3Q_finance_income_minus_expenses_T_KRW
- -9.5
- 3Q_depreciation_T_KRW
- 11.9
- 3Q_CAPEX_T_KRW
- 29
- 3Q_reported_PPE_T_KRW
- 234.0093
- 3Q_balance_total_equity_T_KRW
- 614.1116
- 3Q_balance_group_debt_T_KRW
- 17.1912
- 3Q_liquid_assets_and_short_instruments_T_KRW
- 214.8229
- 3Q_consolidated_assets_T_KRW
- 791.8419
- 3Q_total_equity_parent_not_disclosed_in_3Q_slides
- 未確認
- H1_2026_reviewed_parent_equity_T_KRW
- 565.06474
- H1_2026_reviewed_NCI_equity_T_KRW
- 14.244936
- H1_2026_share_based_compensation_equity_credit_T_KRW
- 16.593614
- H1_2026_equity_reserve_open_T_KRW
- 0.36581
- H1_2026_equity_reserve_end_T_KRW
- 15.853248
- H1_2026_equity_reserve_net_increase_T_KRW
- 15.487438
- H1_2026_treasury_grants_at_acquisition_cost_T_KRW
- 1.106176
- H1_2026_reserve_bridge_error_T_KRW
- 0
- H1_note_15C_from_prior_accrual_to_equity_T_KRW
- 1.047102
- H1_note_15D_welfare_expense_T_KRW
- 0.370568
- H1_note_15D_wages_expense_T_KRW
- 0.332715
- H1_note_15E_long_term_wages_expense_T_KRW
- 0.021304
- H1_note_17F_PSU_expense_T_KRW
- 0.767175
- H1_note_explicit_current_expense_subtotals_T_KRW
- 1.491762
- note_C_treatment
reclassification from existing accrued expenses; cannot infer 1.047102T incremental new-period expense and add it to stock equity credit
- note_F_treatment
PSU expense disclosed; extent already present in equity transaction cannot be reconciled from note alone
- H1_equity_comp_line_NOT_automatically_new_P_and_L_expense
- はい
- undisclosed_full_SBC_expense_reconciliation_T_KRW
- 未確認
- H1_residual_if_naively_subtracting_C_D_E_F_T_KRW
- 14.05475
- H1_residual_is_not_recognized_extra_expense
- はい
- 3Q_current_period_SBC_separate_actual_expense_not_identified_in_earnings_slides
- 未確認
- 3Q_Q3_disclosure_source_ids
- 1
samsung_q3_earnings_pdf
- 2
samsung_h1_reviewed
- 11_06_share_snapshot
内容を開く
- common_issued_shares
- 5846278608
- common_treasury_Oct12
- 136727099
- common_treasury_granted_Oct30_disclosed_Nov4
- 4690
- common_treasury_11_04
- 136722409
- common_outstanding_11_04_proxy_for_11_06
- 5709556199
- common_11_06_exact_confirmed
- いいえ
- preferred_issued_shares
- 802371203
- preferred_treasury_shares
- 0
- ordinary_P_and_L_rights
one ordinary economic claim on owner profit after allocating preferred fraction and preference; voting right
- preferred_P_and_L_rights
nonvoting, noncumulative, 1 KRW annual extra at 100 KRW par as stated in Samsung reviewed statements (annual preferred DPS +1 won, not necessarily every quarterly DPS)
- Q3_record_date_eligible_common_shares_implied
- 5718607814
- Q3_eligible_shares_not_equal_11_06_outstanding
- はい
- Oct6_2026_15T_employee_purpose_completed_shares
- 56856305
- Oct6_2026_15T_employee_purpose_completed_T_KRW
- 14.99999989975
- Oct1_Oct6_share_buyback_only_after_Q3_balance_T_KRW
- 1.38515192825
- future_cancellation_of_2026_employee_treasury_assumed
- いいえ
- Q3_confirmed_declared_dividend
内容を開く
- board_decision_date
2026-10-29
- record_date
2026-09-30
- ordinary_DPS
- 4601
- preferred_DPS
- 4601
- total_dividend_T_KRW
- 30.003024457217
- scheduled_payment
2026-11-27
- old_holder_acquiring_on_2026_11_06_receivable
- 0
- company_liability_on_basis_proxy_T_KRW
- 30.003024457217
- declaration_before_valuation_date_is_not_a_2026_11_06_old_holder_payout
- はい
- payment_execution_confirmed_as_of_2026_11_06
- いいえ
- opening_balance_proxy
内容を開く
- 3Q_group_equity_minus_june_NCI_proxy_T_KRW
- 599.866664
- Oct1_to_Nov6_Q4_parent_NI_assumed_T_KRW
- 14.869565217391
- Q4_preopening_days_excluding_2026_11_06
- 36
- Oct1_to_Nov6_SBC_equity_credit_assumed_T_KRW
- 0.39425051334702
- Oct29_declared_3Q_dividend_equity_decrement_T_KRW
- 30.003024457217
- Oct29_declaration_subdivided_ordinary_T_KRW
- 26.311314552214
- Oct29_declaration_subdivided_preferred_T_KRW
- 3.691709905003
- Q3_dividend_liability_recognized_before_2026_11_06_not_created_on_2026_11_27
- はい
- Oct1_to_Oct6_comp_buyback_cash_equity_decrement_T_KRW
- 1.38515192825
- valuation_date_parent_equity_proxy_T_KRW
- 583.74230334527
- opening_liquid_cash_proxy_T_KRW
- 221.89286815031
- opening_debt_proxy_T_KRW
- 17.1912
- opening_existing_financial_investments_T_KRW
- 97.2416
- warning
2026Q3 parent/NCI split and Q4 before Nov6 accounts are explicit unreviewed model proxies, NOT 2026Nov6 company interim statement
- model_valuation_time_parent_equity_oku
- 5837423.033453
- model_valuation_time_parent_equity_is_IFRS_certified_actual
- いいえ
- model_valuation_time_cash_and_short_instruments_oku
- 2218928.681503
- model_valuation_time_financial_debt_proxy_oku
- 171912
- issuer_prevaluation_employee_repurchase_NOT_future_shareholder_return_oku
- 149999.998997
- price_details
内容を開く
- currency
KRW
- ordinary_close
- 188700
- preferred_close
- 150300
- ordinary_ticker
005930
- preferred_ticker
005935
- 株価基準日
2026-11-06
- official_direct_KRX_historical_close_verified
- いいえ
- observed_from
Korea Economic Daily / KRX price mirrors; not company price report
- different_preferred_and_common_prices
- はい
- 値
- 188700
- 市場
Korea Exchange / KOSPI
- 日付
2026-11-06
- price_type
closing_price
- source_id
securities_price_005930
- 状態
KRX-derived secondary closing quote, official KRX historical archive unverified
- shares_details
内容を開く
- ordinary_issued
- 5846278608
- ordinary_treasury
- 136722409
- ordinary_outstanding
- 5709556199
- preferred_issued
- 802371203
- preferred_treasury
- 0
- preferred_outstanding
- 802371203
- shares_as_of_disclosure
2026-11-04
- Nov5_to_Nov6_sharechanges_verification_status
not independently confirmed; shares are dated proxy
- ordinary_2026_11_06_exact
- 未確認
- pref_2026_11_06_exact
- 未確認
- price_par_share_KRW
- 100
- 2026Q3_dividend_eligible_common_shares
- 5718607814
- 2026Q3_dividend_eligible_preferred_shares
- 802371203
- issued_ordinary
- 5846278608
- treasury_ordinary
- 136722409
- effective_outstanding
- 5709556199
- share_date
2026-11-04
- share_date_status
last_known_proxy_not_precise_2026_11_06
- 株価の出所
2026年11月6日普通株終値188,700 KRW。複数の二次情報とサイト保有明細で照合、取引所の同日原票は未確認。
- 株数の出所
2026年11月4日時点の自己株控除後普通株5,709,556,199株を11月6日の代理値として使用。同日の自己株・株数確報は未確認。
検証上の留意点
- 1
2026年上期の会計士レビュー付き財務諸表を確認。株式報酬の資本計上額を当期費用そのものと同一視しません。
- 2
2026年Q3配当は9月30日基準日の権利であり、11月6日に取得した普通株主の将来受取に含めません。
- 3
上期以降の親会社資本、非支配持分、11月6日の株数と現金には代理値・仮定があります。
- 4
2036年終点後に支払われる権利確定済み配当は未収として扱い、終価や期間内配当へ二重計上しません。
- 5
将来の税、規制、配当、買戻し、設備投資と従業員への株式交付は未確定です。終価への依存が大きく、2037年以降の持続投資によって評価が変わります。
- 6
同じ2026年11月6日の株価・EWYウェイトを使った旧モデルとの予備比較では、Samsungの期待年率は10.345790%から10.344871%へ変化。SKを含む当時の分析済み5銘柄（ETF純資産の51.63%）に再配分した加重年率は15.240788%から15.240384%です。2026年11月9日にはSKの予定確認イベントが到達し、現在の表示対象とは異なります。