AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., Ltd. / 三星電機

009150 · KRW · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

サムスン電機：電子部品と先端基板の10年評価

10年期待年率4.66%

資本コスト11.50%

直近終値870,000.00 KRW2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

MLCC、半導体パッケージ基板、カメラ事業を5シナリオで評価。Q3はレビュー前の速報、基準日の株数と親会社資本・合弁事業への外部出資は代理値または仮定です。韓国でETFが負担する配当源泉税は未反映です。

要約の補足

overview_ja

2026Q3のMLCCとFCBGAのAI需要で売上と利益率は上昇。大型増産決議とSamsung Electronics向け集中、スマホ循環、価格競争・顧客資金条件が重要。2036終価は2037持続FCFFとRONIC・再投資・WACCにより評価。

key_risks_ja

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1: 6.78兆KRWのFCBGA計画は成長の条件であると同時にFCF悪化リスク
2: AI向け高容量MLCC・FCBGAのASPと数量は会社非開示でマージンは推計
3: Samsung Electronicsグループへの2026上半期売上が約26%（DART要直接再確認）
4: 2026Q3暫定連結純資産で親会社分未開示、NCIは半期DART代理値を延長
5: 今後の配当・自己株取得・SBC・FX・日付は全て予測

ten_year_range

calendar 2026-11-06 through 2036-11-06; dated flows /365.25 actual days, exactly 55 forecast periods

tax_policy

gross Korean local cash distributions before investor tax; Korean ETF effective withholding, Japan or US investor tax not modeled

future_corporate_actions

none treated as resolved beyond 2026-11-06; all modeled future dividend, buyback and grants hypothetical

結論の補足

company: Samsung Electro-Mechanics
valuation_date: 2026-11-06
price_krw: 870000
market_value_of_opening_ordinary_common_cohort_oku: 632435.1552
neutral_irr: 0.012419123749
probability_weighted_scenario_IRR: -0.028544305831
IRR_from_probability_weighted_cashflow_and_terminal: 0.046588026438
mean_discounted_old_common_fair_value_krw: 526901.621
recommendation_ja: AI関連需要は追い風だが大型CAPEXとMLCC・基板の周期を織り込む。市場PER回帰を避け、5ケースの事業FCFFで10年後価値を評価。
状態: scenario_assumptions_not_guaranteed_return

事業

model: manufactures passive component MLCC, high-density FCBGA semiconductor packages, optical camera modules
moat_ja: MLCC小型大容量・耐熱とADAS品質、FCBGA微細配線・大面積歩留りに技術優位。新工場は顧客長期契約で支えるが数量保証・支援入金額は未検証。
customers: Samsung Electronics and consolidated subsidiaries approximately 26% of H1 reported sales (secondary transcription); others unnamed global Big Tech and automotive customers; concentration risks.
price_volume_mix: segment sales known but unit ASP, units, and operating profit by segment not disclosed: forecast growth and margins are analyst judgment, not official disclosures.
sbc_rule: P&L operating profit and parent profit already net of SBC; CFO addback and shares dilution explicitly recorded; 2026 Q4 accrual vests 2027 rather than disappearing, with 2037 perpetual awards share-neutralized through cash market repurchase

競争力・事業の質

financial_2026q3_status

preliminary company issued 2026-10-28 pre-external review

reported_last_2026_q3

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currency: KRW
単位: oku KRW
sales: 37633
operating_profit: 6910
pbt: 6097
tax_expense: 1247
consolidated_net_profit: 4850
parent_profit: 4687
nci_profit_derived: 163
assets: 170612
debt: 34263
cash: 41137
equity_total: 104988
quarter_capex_intangible_tangible: 8627

reported_2026_h1_derived_secondary

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親会社持分（億）: 102305.79
非支配持分資本（億）: 2985.63
consolidated_total_oku: 105291.42
出典: secondary reproducing 2026-08-14 DART report; direct DART unavailable

2026q3_nci_and_parent_equity_proxy

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非支配持分（億）: 3148.63
parent_oku: 101839.37
q3_oci_and_other_to_reconcile_oku: -5153.42
方法: Q2 NCI+Q3 reported consolidated less parent profit; all Q3 OCI and other equity movement forced to parent as residual; inherently uncertain

q3_earnings_after_sbc

reported K-IFRS parent result; no additional SBC deduction

nine_months_exact_through_q3_2026

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sales_oku: 104295.96
営業利益（億）: 14118.99
pbt_oku: 13593.93
income_tax_oku_derived: 2933.7
consolidated_profit_oku: 10660.23
parent_profit_oku: 10335.3
状態: KRX fair-disclosure cumulative numbers from 2026-10-28 primary filing, reproduced by filings archive; Q1-Q3 component sums are rounded IR deck numbers

2026Q3_parent_return_on_equity_LTM_proxy

未確認

業界と環境

cycles

smartphone handset seasonality and inventory cycles; AI capex availability, FC-BGA yield and MLCC capacity; autos and EV ADAS slower smoothing demand

technologies

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1: AI server MLCC
2: advanced FCBGA substrates
3: automotive MLCC
4: camera modules
5: Glasssem glass cores

competitors

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1: Murata
2: Taiyo Yuden
3: Yageo
4: Ibiden
5: Unimicron
6: Nan Ya PCB
7: LG Innotek

risks

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1: price pressure on mature MLCC and handset cameras
2: geopolitical customer and supply-chain concentration
3: capex and inventory overbuild
4: overestimation of Big Tech funding and 2032 contracted volume

non_disclosed

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1: division EBIT/margin
2: MLCC AI revenue and product ASP/volume
3: FCBGA long term contract prices/units
4: specific Big Tech revenue concentration
5: SBC award level in 2026 after accounting cutoffs

財務・資本配分

historical_shares_as_of_proxy

2025-12-31 issuer formal annual report, assumed unchanged to 2026-11-06 pending definitive H1 share check

ordinary_outstanding_basis

72693696

preferred_outstanding

2853554

preferred_rights

nonvoting preferred, 2025 annual cash DPS KRW50 above ordinary; modeled equally residual participation and preference annuity, no terminal listed preferred market price regression

dividend_history

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fiscal_year: 2025
common_krw: 2350
preferred_krw: 2400
ex_date: 2025-12-29
pay_date: 2026-04-17
状態: paid_before_cutoff_excluded

future_dividend_policy

company states ~20% or more payout subject to capex and cashflow; scenario ratio forecast, never newly resolved on as_of

authorized_future_repurchases_as_of_date

未確認

share_treasury_policy

old cohort only ordinary outstanding; hypothetical buybacks are held in treasury, no future cancellations; no company cash represented by SBC dilution; no secondary trust purchases modeled

commitment_FCBGA_capex_oku

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sejong

42700

vietnam

25100

total

67800

allocation_forecast

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2027

sejong: 3500
vietnam: 1000

2028

sejong: 24000
vietnam: 7000

2029

sejong: 15200
vietnam: 10000

2030

sejong: 0
vietnam: 6000

2031

sejong: 0
vietnam: 1100

customer_cash_support_disclosed_without_amount

zero contract advances included in core case, avoid free-money double count

jv_2026_11_05

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total_subscription_oku: 3191
issuer_parent_cash_oku: 2391
issuer_parent_in_kind_oku: 800
ownership_pct: 0.662
partner_subscription_oku_inferred: 1630
consolidation_assumption: partner 1630 oku recognized as external NCI equity and consolidated cash before cutoff; parent 2391 internal cash transfer and 800 in-kind have zero group cash effect; if non-cash or consolidation delayed this bridge changes
put_call_options: deadlock call/put after 5 years; fair values unquantified not booked in projection

equity_accounting

parent book equity=P0+parent NI after SBC+SBC reserve credit-common/pref declared dividend-common buyback+OCI; NCI independently retained

評価の前提と確認

current_common_price_krw

870000

year_2025_parent_profit_oku

7061

TTM_parent_profit_2025Q4_to_2026Q3_oku

12564

TTM_ordinary_plus_preferred_EPS_KRW

16630.652

spot_TTM_PE_indicator_only_not_terminal_used

52.313

terminal_formula

EV=2037 normalized FCFF_after_cash_stock_neutralization/(WACC-g); operating_NOCF after reported SBC plus SBC addback minus market share neutralization and growth reinvestment; parent equity=(EV -gross_debt + cash_above_min_required)*(1-NCI_value_share); allocate between ordinary and nonvoting preferred; old cohort proportion of ordinary equity

not_used

1: current market P/E terminal target
2: analyst price target
3: future stock quote to determine terminal market cap

scenario_fair_value_krw_per_initial_share

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very_bearish: 8223.095
bearish: 85680.465
neutral: 353806.898
bullish: 867906.683
very_bullish: 1938391.23

disputed_desktop_894000_quote_sensitivity_only

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alternative_price_krw

894000

price_not_used_in_basis

はい

alternative_initial_ordinary_common_market_value_oku

649881.64224

case_IRR_at_alternative_buy_price_no_operating_changes

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very_bearish: -0.492131540799
bearish: -0.12274907982
neutral: 0.009520902178
bullish: 0.097514810246
very_bullish: 0.190887637349

weighted_mean_of_alternative_price_case_IRRs

-0.031362883389

説明

A minority of the official company desktop historical table snapshots rendered 894000 versus 870000 in company mobile/Japanese and multiple other market data feeds; alternate price is a sensitivity only, not an alternative fact.

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.50%

k_meaning

neutral equity discount rate for old shareholder dated-CF present value, separately from enterprise WACC

neutral_wacc

0.091

scenario_wacc_varies

はい

coc_k_scenario_specific

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very_bearish: 0.15
bearish: 0.132
neutral: 0.115
bullish: 0.101
very_bullish: 0.096

normalization

nominal KRW KR bond-equity funding capital cost; modeling judgment not company disclosed

事業別データ

2026q3_disclosed_revenue_oku

component: 18830
package: 9390
optics: 9413

2026q2_disclosed_revenue_oku

component: 16494
package: 7716
optics: 10362

2026q1_disclosed_revenue_oku

component: 14085
package: 7250
optics: 10756

margin_disclosure_status

company Q3 presentation has revenue by segment but not actual EBIT by segment, forecasts entirely assumed

segment_descriptions

component

products: MLCC, capacitors, inductors
demand: AI datacenter GPU/ASIC, network, power, autos, general handset
risks: ASP/volume mix, Chinese MLCC capacity, Murata dominance

package

products: FCBGA for CPU/AI accelerators, BGA mobile memory
demand: AI servers HPC, networking, ADAS
risks: facility yield and utilization, prepayment financial terms unconfirmed, new Vietnam and Sejong commissioning

optics

products: smartphone folded zoom camera, EV and humanoid cameras
demand: global smartphone seasonality, premium phone, ADAS
risks: mobile customer concentration, weak camera pricing