AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

KB Financial Group Inc.

105560 · KRW · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

KB金融：銀行収益と規制資本からみる10年評価

10年期待年率11.84%

資本コスト11.20%

直近終値151,000.00 KRW2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

銀行・証券・保険の収益、普通株主に帰属する資本、配当や買戻しを5シナリオで評価。2026年Q3はレビュー前の速報で、基準日の自己株数と規制資本は代理値です。韓国でETFが負担する実効源泉税は未反映。将来の配当と株主還元は予測です。

要約の補足

thesis

High CET1 but return on ordinary common equity and RWA determine justified valuation; bank deposits fund loans and are not industrial net debt.

opportunities

1: fee-led KB Securities, insurance franchise and group-wide cross-selling
2: manageable regulatory CET1 buffer may fund dividends and retirements
3: bank funding franchise and resilient deposits

risks

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1: credit cycle, household mortgages and property finance
2: NIM compression or rising deposit betas
3: capital regulation, IFRS17 insurance volatility and derivatives
4: provisional Q3 report and exact Nov6 shares unresolved
5: cash- vs equity-settled share compensation
6: FX, EWY dividend withholding and Korean shares ETF pass-through

price_2026_11_06_confirmed

はい

taxation

Korean ETF-level effective source withholding and refunds unconfirmed; all cashflows PRE-Korean withholding; no Japan/US investor taxes or ETF management expenses

結論の補足

ja: CET1 13.80%の韓国大手総合金融。配当・自己株買いの普通株主帰属を分けた予測評価。
investment_case: profitability, KB Kookmin bank dominant but growth in securities/insurance; management capital allocation and loan credit cycle
base_price_krw: 151000
implied_expected_pre_tax_price_krw: 157926.36567
implied_expected_upside: 0.04587
expected_IRR_from_probability_weighted_dated_holder_CF: 0.118394525
discount_rate_k: 0.112
probability_weighted_cash_dividends_and_tender_oku: 353568.1353182
probability_weighted_terminal_old_cohort_oku: 972673.9012955
conclusion: model only; does not include Korean withholding, FX, EWY expense ratio or investor-level tax
conditional_share_denominator: Oct29 ordinary dividend resolution proxy; exact Nov6 unverified

事業

説明

South Korean parent of commercial bank, card lender, securities broker/investment bank, non-life/life insurance and asset management.

profit_measure

K-IFRS parent net income less parent equity-classified hybrid coupon; do not deduct NCI a second time

bank_deposits_as_financial_intermediation_obligations

はい

do_not_calculate_industrial_EV_by_subtracting_all_deposits

はい

revenue_note

bank uses net interest income + fees + other operating profit (gross operating profit) not industrial turnover; G&A and credit costs bridge to earnings

q3_9m_IFRS_income_bridge_bn

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net_interest_income: 9985.3
net_fees: 4087.8
other_operating: 671
gross_operating_profit: 14744.1
G_and_A_expenses: -5360.4
PPOP: 9383.7
credit_cost: -1576.3
net_operating_profit: 7807.4
nonoperating: -94.3
pre_tax_after_nonoperating_before_taxes: 7713.1
taxes_and_other_to_profit: -1873
consolidated_net_profit: 5840.1
NCI_profit: -48
parent_profit: 5792.1
EPS_after_hybrid_distribution_krw: 15983
状態: 2026-10-29 preliminary

risk_factors

rates, loan credit costs and expected loss provisioning, volatility of equity trading income, insurance reserve assumptions, capital stress

競争力・事業の質

banking_franchise

large diversified Korea bank with deposits, card and capital-markets subsidiaries

bank_NIM_latest_Q3

0.0172

group_NIM_latest_Q3

0.0192

asset_quality_cost_9m

0.004

CET1_Q3_E

0.138

strength

high reported CET1

weakness

Korean household/real estate concentration and accounting volatility

simple_local_NIM_and_credit_cost_sensitivities

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状態: illustrative static not an official ALM or EaR stress test
NII_annual_change_for_group_NIM_10bp_bn: 693.4236111
after_tax_parent_profit_delta_for_group_NIM_10bp_bn: 525.0370449
pretax_credit_cost_10bp_of_2026Q3_group_loan_bn: 510.2
after_tax_common_earnings_impact_10bp_credit_cost_bn: -386.3062867
NIM_assumption: constant interest-earning asset base implied by reported NIM/NII; ignores rate hedges, repricing gap and tax differences
credit_assumption: using 2026Q3 510.2tn group loans as denominator proxy, not exact annual average ECL exposure

業界と環境

competition

1: Korean commercial banks, fintech/payment rivals, securities brokers, insurers

margin_sensitivity

interest-rate cuts reduce loan yields ahead of some deposit repricing; higher deposit beta narrows spread; hedge positions and repricing lags matter

credit

ECL cost ratio scenarios; do not extrapolate 2026 low losses across the cycle

capital

CET1 risk-weighted assets and management buffers constrain buybacks/dividends, not total debt subtraction

財務・資本配分

as_of_proxy

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Q3_sept30_common_equity_rounded_bn: 56200
oct1_to_nov6_parent_net_income_assumed_bn: 767.1467391
oct1_to_nov6_parent_hybrid_coupon_assumed_bn: 17.588397
oct1_to_nov6_OCI_assumed_bn: -60
oct1_to_nov6_SBC_equity_credit_assumed_bn: 15
oct1_to_nov6_buyback_spending_proxy_bn: 214.059924
treasury_increase_share_count_assumed: 1372179
oct29_dividend_board_declared_equity_debit_bn: 404.918449107
Q3_dividend_remains_unpaid_at_base_and_in_liability: はい
ordinary_common_equity_asof_bn: 56285.579969035
parent_hybrid_equity_asof_bn: 4600
NCI_equity_asof_bn: 1800
group_equity_asof_bn: 62685.579969035
regulatory_rwa_proxy_asof_bn: 368734.64944285
regulatory_cet1_proxy_asof_bn: 50861.29684782
regulatory_cet1_ratio_proxy_asof: 0.137934682636
date_status: inferred_proxy_from_preliminary_rounding_and_old_ir; not exact IFRS stock valuation

regulatory

CET1 risk-weighted assets initial 13.8% Q3 preliminary, scenario management targets 13.25%-14%; not claimed as hard legal minima

parent_hybrid_coupon

subtract from parent attributable net income once to derive ordinary common earnings; other tier 1 regulatory capitalization not identical to holding equity liability book

preferred_equity

no separately listed KB ordinary preferred equity assumed; parent hybrid/perpetual security is modeled separately as nonordinary

dividends_liability

Oct29 2026 declared liability debited against starting common equity once, November hypothetical cash payment settles liability only. 2036 hypothetical Q3 declared liability debited at Oct29: common book, CET1, required capital and exdiv operating franchise use post-declaration equity. Nov6 old holder SALE is cum-div and embeds discounted buyer entitlement in sale price once; seller separate receivable zero for Nov11 ex after exit.

SBC

H1 2026 audited/reviewed G&A SBC KRW88.142bn; grant note KRW107.215bn not addable; cash-settled accrual KRW370.071bn; all scenario annual expenses are IN earnings. Forecast 17% equity-settled is unverified, sensitivity mandatory.

buybacks

initial cohort pro-rata tenders at each hypothetical company buyback. Market value of shares remaining declines in proportion; no separate fictional negative SBC holder cashflows.

stock_cancellation

issued and treasury shares both reduce, economic shares and old fraction unchanged

excess_capital_distribution_caution

terminal excess is an economic book-capital asset, not an approved immediate special distribution; the JSON separately calculates five-year regulatory-delay sensitivity

評価の前提と確認

do_not_use_pe_pb_multiple_reversion: はい
terminal_derivation: Separate excess CET1 common equity at book and required productive equity. Value recurring 2037 profits on CET1-required common only, after hybrid/SBC and growth reinvestment, plus excess capital once. Adjust perpetuity for recurring share-grant dilution; no P/E/P/B reversion.
liabilities_bank_specific: Deposits, bank bonds, debt and derivatives are operating funding/obligations and remain inside bank net earnings/capital. They are NOT subtracted from equity perpetuity as for an industrial enterprise.
normalization: future ROE differs by scenario and absorbs NIM/credit/fee and insurance cycle rather than market multiple reversion
SBC_double_count_guard: grant expense included once in earnings, noncash equity credit added once, old holder dilution once; no second repurchase cost for stock grants
unpaid_dividend_guard: 2036 predicted Oct29 declaration debits company ordinary common book only once. If assumed Nov11 ex AFTER Nov6 sale, buyer owns subsequent payout and seller gets only cum-div sale proceeds; seller independent receivable zero. Embedded sale-price uplift discounted to Nov27, never 10y cash. If ex BEFORE exit but payment AFTER, fixed seller receivable is separate only. No after-horizon payout event.

資本コストの前提

資本コスト: 11.20%
currency: KRW
interpretation: ordinary Korean bank common equity required return before EWY withholding
方法: declared analyst assumption; not inferred from current P/E/P/B

事業別データ

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