AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

QIAGEN N.V.

QIA · EUR · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

2026-11-06〜2036-11-06の旧株主持分を時点別に検証。株譜サイトに合わせ終価のみ10年固定で割引、その他の現金CFは実日数/365.25。確率加重主価値36.291203EUR/株、終値45.205EUR比-19.7186%。実日数終価割引の参考値は36.291072EUR/株。破談ケースの終価は旧FY2036年末値ではなく2036-11-06残存持分。

10年期待年率-5.49%

資本コスト9.00%

直近終値45.21 EUR2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

基準日2026-11-06、経済的な評価終点2036-11-06。2026-09-30までのUS GAAP決算と2026-10-21公表のEQTによる46.50EUR/株の未成立現金買付条件を起点にした時点別旧株主CF分析である。会社発表の確率ではない主観確率は成立80%（強気15%、やや強気45%、中立20%）、破談20%（やや弱気15%、弱気5%）。成立ケースは2027-05-06、2027-08-06、2028-05-06を決済仮定日としてEQTの現金受領とその後の旧株主持分ゼロをモデル化。遅延成立時の2027-10-15の最大0.47USD/株条件付き中間配当も任意支払という仮定であり、46.50EURの買付対価から控除しない。破談ケースではFY2036-12-31の終価を転用せず、2026年11月6日以降の最初の55日、2027〜2035年の各年、2036年1月1日〜11月6日の311日の会社損益・資本と旧株主持分を再集計。2036年11月7日以降の利益・配当・買戻し・資本変動は期間外。2026年9月末の自己株控除後株数約206,497,000株を基準日旧株主コホートと全社株数のモデル起点とし、将来のSBC持分発行・第三者増資で会社株数のみ増え、旧株主が自社株買いに保有比率どおり売却する仮定では旧株主株数も減少する。会社の資本増減はGAAP利益＋SBC資本計上＋OCI＋外部新株払込−会社配当−会社買戻し。旧株主が実際に受け取る現金は別勘定であり、EQTの買付対価を会社の資本から控除しない。SBC費用もGAAP利益から足し戻さない。主値：共通k=9.0%、各現金イベントを実日数/365.25、2036年11月6日の終価だけサイト規約で指数10固定。確率加重現在価値74.940245億EUR、1株36.291203EUR、終値比-19.7186%、確率加重CFからのIRR-5.48664%。参考：終価も3653日/365.25=10.0013689254年として割り引くと現在価値74.939974億EUR、1株36.291072EUR、IRR-5.48626%。主値との差0.000270738億EUR。いずれの方式も年次・部分年・時点別イベントを変更せず、旧FY2036末の資本・利益・買戻しを2036年11月6日へ前倒ししない。過去の5年目一括割引や旧FY2036終価は現行評価に用いない。

事業

2026年9か月のUS GAAP開示は法的な単一報告セグメントであり、売上は重複しない5つの製品群に分解する。Sample technologies（核酸抽出、試料前処理）539.185百万USD、Diagnostic solutions（QuantiFERON-TB、QIAstat-Dx、精密医療）598.090百万USD、PCR/Nucleic acid amplification 214.074百万USD、Genomics/NGS（QIAGEN Digital Insightsを含む）183.281百万USD、Other 40.599百万USD。消耗品・関連売上1424.543百万USDと機器150.686百万USDは別の横断的分類であり、上記製品5群へ再加算しない。製品単位の検査件数・キット平均単価は統一開示されないため、数量は2026年9か月年率化＝100の事業活動指数、単価はEUR億/指数とする代理変数。2025年12月Parse Biosciences取得によりsingle-cell製品Evercode・Trailmakerが加わったが既存製品群の売上に含まれており別セグメントの売上として二重加算しない。

競争力・事業の質

研究用核酸抽出・前処理製品と分子診断検査の消耗品反復購入が強みで、2026年Q3時点の消耗品・関連売上は売上の約91%。ただし診断製品は医療規制・承認・品質問題、研究用製品は研究助成・バイオ資金環境、機器は資本支出予算、PCR・NGSは新技術と競争に左右される。2026年Q3営業利益率は約24.2%だが2026年9か月営業利益率は約22.2%。調整後営業利益率30.4%はGAAPではなく、取得無形資産償却や一時費用を足し戻した値を長期普通株利益へ無断転用しない。2026年のGAAP株式報酬費用26.634百万USDは全額費用として維持し、企業価値評価上の繰り返しコストとみなす。

業界と環境

分子診断・核酸抽出試薬・感染症検査は検査人口、標準化、自動化の需要があるが、競合Thermo Fisher、Roche、Danaher/Cepheid、Bio-Rad、Illumina、10x Genomics等との技術競争がある。QuantiFERON-TBは潜在性結核検査の一角を占める一方、2026年9か月は米国移民検査需要が低調。QIAstat-DxはGI、髄膜炎・脳炎パネルが成長。Genomics/NGSとDigital Insightsは研究開発と解析ソフトの継続価値があるが、PCR一般消耗品は9か月前年同期比減収。2026年Q3のParse寄与は採算改善と研究開発の双方に影響する。買収成立の場合、2027〜2036年の事業業績は旧上場株主には帰属しないため、上場株主の2036年終価へ加算しない。

財務・資本配分

2026年9月末US GAAP資本は3474.962百万USD、負債1642.855百万USD、現金及び短期投資830.132百万USD、純負債812.723百万USD。2026年9か月営業CF446.944百万USD、設備投資128.395百万USDと無形投資3.487百万USDで現金創出は存在するが、合成自己株買い496.7百万USDと現金配当72.309百万USDはキャッシュフローの別項目。2026年1月の20株を19株にする併合・資本返還は発行済み株数に反映済み。2025年12月のParse買収現金対価231百万USD（うちescrow33百万USD、さらに条件付き対価最大55百万USD、取得日公正価値13.4百万USD）は過去の買収であり、2027〜2036年の新規買収として二重に計上しない。公開買付け代金はEQT側のBidcoが旧株主へ支払う対価であってQIAGEN自身の配当・買戻しではない。したがって会社資本恒等式では「会社の通常配当＋自己株買い−SBCによる株式持分移転−会社への新株払込」を使い、Bidcoからの買付け対価を会社の株主資本から控除しない。株譜の旧保有者向け累計受領額はこの買付け対価を別途含める。
今回の時点別修正：元のannual全暦年予測は保持し、企業会計のSBC費用は足し戻さず、対応する資本繰入は年内按分。新株・従業員株の発行は会社全体の株数Sを増やし、元の株主集団の株数Hは増やさない。買戻しではS全体を減らし、元の株主集団Hも持株比率どおり売却したという仮定で縮小する。その売却代金のみ旧株主の実際のキャッシュフローへ計上し、既に持分率に反映したSBCや外部増資を二重に旧株主の現金費用へ記録しない。買付けは買主資金のため法人資本を減らさない。
今回の検算更新：期首の会社資本から2036-11-06の会社資本まで、US GAAP利益・SBC資本計上・OCI・外部普通株払込・会社の配当と買戻しを11期間の個別明細から独立合算した。SBC費用は損益に含まれるまま、APIC信用と旧株主の希薄化を二重に現金控除しない。会社の資本返還（corporate_payout_oku）と、旧株主が現実に受け取る現金（payout_oku）は別定義で、EQTの46.50EUR買付けは後者だけ。終価は2036-11-06の会社価値に実際に残る旧株主群のH/Sを掛け、元株主が買戻しへ売却済みの株数を終価へ再計上しない。旧方式の5年目一括還元割引は採用せず、サイトの10年固定指数は終価割引にだけ適用する。

評価の前提と確認

currency_and_units: EUR/株、金額は億EUR、率は小数、株数は普通株式数。US GAAP原数値はUSD。
spot_price: 45.205
株数: 206497000
時価総額（億）: 93.346969
offer_price_eur_per_share: 46.5
offer_total_old_shareholders_oku: 96.021105
offer_status_2026_11_06: 未成立・条件付き、締結は2026-10-21、完了予定は2027年半ば
deal_prob_assumed: 0.8
deal_failure_prob_assumed: 0.2
期首資本（億）: 31.476129799
equity_accounting_definition: Company E_end=E_start+GAAP net income+SBC APIC credit+OCI+external cash share proceeds-company cash dividends-company cash buybacks. Corporate NET payout=dividends+buybacks-SBC APIC-new equity cash. Thus E_end=E_start+GAAP profit+OCI-corporate NET payout. Bidder tender proceeds are NOT company distribution.
holder_valuation_definition: Only old shareholder cohort cash events plus old cohort residual at 2036-11-06. Company-level equity and dividends are a separate ledger. Tender payment comes from acquiring bidder; tendered cohort no longer owns terminal shares.
資本コスト: 9.00%
terminal_discount_year: 10
discount_factor_10y: 2.367363675
economic_warning: This is timed holder cash-flow valuation. The old 5-year lump-sum payout approximation is NOT used. Only terminal discount exponent differs between site-10 and actual-day reference. Deal and dividends remain conditional analyst-assumed dates.
reporting_basis: latest 2026-09-30 U.S. GAAP, NOT IFRS; adjusted operating earnings are not used
share_price_source_status: 二次市場履歴で一致し、Xetra運営者による2026-11-06の原始終値データは独立確認できず。
probability_empirically_calibrated: いいえ
sbc_treatment: sbc_expense_in_costs_okuは営業費用の内数で再加算・再控除しない。sbc_offset_okuは非現金で会社持分増を表すproxy；株数希薄化を別途終価・EPSへ重ねて加算しない。
キャッシュフローの算出方法: timed_holder_cashflows_v1
valuation_start_date: 2026-11-06
終価の基準日: 2036-11-06
total_actual_days: 3653
year_basis: dated holder events: actual calendar days / 365.25
terminal_year_time: 10.001368925394
original_holder_shares_at_valuation: 206497000
initial_market_cap_oku: 93.34696885
company_equity_at_valuation_estimated_oku: 31.476129799
holder_cashflow_definition: Exact modeled original-cohort receipts: proportional issuer dividends, pro-rata buyback sales, conditional dividend, tender funded by bidder; noncash SBC and third-party issuances dilute H/S instead of being deducted as cash.
company_equity_formula: E_end=E_start+GAAP_profit+SBC_APIC_credit+OCI+cash_new_shares−issuer_dividends−issuer_buybacks = E_start+GAAP_profit+OCI−corporate_net_capital_return.
terminal_valuation_definition: At 2036-11-06 only: company intrinsic P/B from trailing net and equity at date, times old holder H/S. Bidder exit => H=0 and terminal mcap=0; not the full-FY2036 December 31 residual.
pv_formula: SITE MAIN PV = Σ dated original-holder cash/(1+k)^(actual_days/365.25) + mcap_oku/(1+k)^10. Actual-days reference changes ONLY the last exponent to 3653/365.25. Both use original old-cohort opening market cap for IRR.
expected_holder_cash_oku: 79.026655338
expected_terminal_holder_residual_oku: 5.433318803
expected_pv_oku: 74.940245122
expected_value_per_share_eur: 36.291202837
gap_to_price: -0.19718608922
expected_irr_from_merged_timed_cashflows: -0.054866403942
weighted_average_individual_irr_reference_only: 0.01052809463
irr_definition: Solve sum[all probability-weighted dated holder CF/(1+IRR)^(actual_days/365.25)] + expected old-holder terminal residual/(1+IRR)^10 = initial 2026-11-06 old cohort market cap; the reference variant uses terminal exponent 3653/365.25.
irr_npv_residual_oku: -0
expected_pv_residual_against_sum_of_scenarios_oku: 0
cashflow_dates_are_assumptions: はい
year_2036_12_31_payments_excluded: はい
market_price_xetra_primary_confirmed: いいえ
opening_equity_2027_01_01_fiscal_reference_oku: 32
opening_equity_date: 2026-11-06 (model-based; NOT the prior 2027-01-01 opening forecast)
terminal_discount_exponent_primary_site: 10
terminal_discount_exponent_actual_days_reference: 10.001368925394
terminal_time_approximation_delta_years: 0.001368925394
terminal_discount_approximation_note: Date is 2036-11-06, 3653 real calendar days (10.0013689253949 on 365.25 basis). For PRIMARY site PV and IRR, discount the terminal at exponent 10 EXACTLY; all other dated holder cash retains real days/365.25. Reference PV/IRR use actual days for terminal as well.
expected_irr_actual_days_terminal_reference: -0.05486263735
irr_npv_residual_actual_days_reference_oku: 0
expected_pv_reference_residual_against_sum_of_scenarios_oku: 0
expected_actual_days_reference_pv_oku: 74.939974384
expected_actual_days_reference_value_per_share_eur: 36.291071727
expected_actual_days_reference_gap_vs_price: -0.19718898956
expected_site_minus_actual_days_reference_pv_oku: 0.000270738022
site_method_is_5_year_midpoint_payout: いいえ
legacy_midpoint_5y_discount_retired: はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

9.00%

事業の質

0.78

事業の質の内訳

内容を開く

sample_processing_lockin: 0.84
recurring_reagents: 0.86
diagnostic_regulation: 0.75
leverage_and_mna: 0.59
innovation_and_disruption: 0.66

事業の質の根拠

EUR名目要求収益率9.0%は分析仮定。核酸抽出試薬・TB診断・自動分析装置のインストールベースと試薬消耗品の反復購入を評価。一方、研究費・価格競争、規制、2025年Parse買収に伴う無形資産、純負債約8.13億USD、公開買付け条件の不成立リスクを考慮。市場PER/PBRおよび公開買付けプレミアムからkを逆算しない。

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

シナリオ	確率	株主還元・追加負担	終価
強気：EQT買付けが2027年前半に予定価格で成立	15.0%	96.02	0.00
やや強気：EQT買付けが2027年半ばに成立	45.0%	96.02	0.00
中立：規制審査により2028年前半へ成立が遅延	20.0%	96.89	0.00
やや弱気：公開買付け不成立、Qiagen単独で成長継続	15.0%	12.40	32.30
弱気：買付け不成立に研究需要低迷・採算悪化が重なる	5.0%	3.53	11.78

強気：EQT買付けが2027年前半に予定価格で成立（確率 15.0%）

株主総会・法定受諾率・競争法等の条件が早期に満たされ、EQTの46.50EUR全額現金買付けが2027年前半に成立する。買付価格の引上げは仮定しない。以後の売上・利益・資本は買付け後の会社の参考事業軌道であり、旧一般株主は所有しない。

確率の根拠

取締役会が推奨した現金買付けと資金調達を評価するが、当局承認・受諾条件が必要。会社発表の成立確率ではなく15%の主観確率。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

やや強気：EQT買付けが2027年半ばに成立（確率 45.0%）

2026年10月21日公表の46.50EURの公開買付けが当初想定に近い2027年半ばに成立する。旧株主の受取額は1株46.50EURで、株式公開終了後のQIA事業価値や長期配当を旧株主へ残さない。

確率の根拠

公表された買付け条件と会社側の推奨をベースケースの成立分岐として45%。実際の成否を確定していない。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

中立：規制審査により2028年前半へ成立が遅延（確率 20.0%）

規制当局の許可が2027年8月以降まで残り、会社が条件付きで認められた上限0.47USD/株の中間配当を選択して2027年に支払う仮定。買付け自体は2028年前半に46.50EURで成立する。特別配当は買付価格から差し引かないと公表されているが、実際の支払いは未確定。

確率の根拠

規制・投資審査と株主手続きの長期化があり得るため20%。中間配当の実施は特約の範囲での仮定。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

やや弱気：公開買付け不成立、Qiagen単独で成長継続（確率 15.0%）

受諾率や株主総会、当局条件などで買付けが成立せず、上場企業として事業を継続。QIAstat-Dx・QuantiFERONやNGS関連は一定成長するが、研究市場・中国需要、償却、研究費、Parse統合の負担が残る。既公表の現金買付対価を事業価値や株主還元に加えない。

確率の根拠

買収失敗の可能性は無視できず、かつ事業採算は緩やかに低下する分岐として15%。

事業別の前提

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id: sample
数量: 116.05408
価格・単価: 0.07326765
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 8.503
営業利益: 1.7856

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id: diagnostic
数量: 112.66918
価格・単価: 0.08289092
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 9.3393
営業利益: 2.0546

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id: pcr
数量: 83.39017
価格・単価: 0.02796119
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 2.3317
営業利益: 0.2681

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id: genomics
数量: 134.39164
価格・単価: 0.02466054
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 3.3142
営業利益: 0.6794

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id: other
数量: 81.70728
価格・単価: 0.0049958
売上換算係数: 1
売上高: 0.4082
営業利益: 0.0082

日付別キャッシュフロー

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想定日: 2027-03-31
year: 0.396988364134
金額: 0.157588487
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.15780822
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.998607599
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 145

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想定日: 2027-03-31
year: 0.396988364134
金額: 0.049246402
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.04931507
cohort_shares_sold: 113593.433
execution_price_eur_assumed: 43.3532
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 145

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想定日: 2027-06-30
year: 0.646132785763
金額: 0.15921667
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.15956164
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.997837987
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 236

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想定日: 2027-06-30
year: 0.646132785763
金額: 0.049755209
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.04986301
cohort_shares_sold: 117819.588
execution_price_eur_assumed: 42.23
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 236

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想定日: 2027-09-30
year: 0.898015058179
金額: 0.160837542
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.16131507
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.997039793
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 328

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想定日: 2027-09-30
year: 0.898015058179
金額: 0.050261732
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.05041096
cohort_shares_sold: 122219.891
execution_price_eur_assumed: 41.124
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 328

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想定日: 2027-12-31
year: 1.149897330595
金額: 0.160705455
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.16131507
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.996220974
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 420

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想定日: 2027-12-31
year: 1.149897330595
金額: 0.050220455
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.05041096
cohort_shares_sold: 125403.767
execution_price_eur_assumed: 40.047
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 420

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想定日: 2028-03-31
year: 1.399041752225
金額: 0.170019566
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.17081148
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.995363839
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 511

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想定日: 2028-03-31
year: 1.399041752225
金額: 0.064345105
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.06464481
cohort_shares_sold: 164947.478
execution_price_eur_assumed: 39.0095
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 511

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想定日: 2028-06-30
year: 1.648186173854
金額: 0.169869405
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.17081148
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.994484736
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 602

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想定日: 2028-06-30
year: 1.648186173854
金額: 0.064288276
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.06464481
cohort_shares_sold: 169185.121
execution_price_eur_assumed: 37.9988
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 602

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想定日: 2028-09-30
year: 1.90006844627
金額: 0.171578649
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.17268852
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.993572963
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 694

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想定日: 2028-09-30
year: 1.90006844627
金額: 0.064935151
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.06535519
cohort_shares_sold: 175483.281
execution_price_eur_assumed: 37.0036
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 694

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想定日: 2028-12-31
year: 2.151950718686
金額: 0.171417124
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.17268852
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.99263761
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 786

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想定日: 2028-12-31
year: 2.151950718686
金額: 0.064874021
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.06535519
cohort_shares_sold: 180033.037
execution_price_eur_assumed: 36.0345
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 786

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想定日: 2029-03-31
year: 2.398357289528
金額: 0.179477589
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.1809863
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.991663942
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 876

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想定日: 2029-03-31
year: 2.398357289528
金額: 0.07824636
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.07890411
cohort_shares_sold: 222854.025
execution_price_eur_assumed: 35.111
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 876

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想定日: 2029-06-30
year: 2.647501711157
金額: 0.181287004
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.18299726
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.990654195
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 967

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想定日: 2029-06-30
year: 2.647501711157
金額: 0.079035206
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.07978082
cohort_shares_sold: 231087.87
execution_price_eur_assumed: 34.2014
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 967

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想定日: 2029-09-30
year: 2.899383983573
金額: 0.183085409
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.18500822
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.989606892
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1059

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想定日: 2029-09-30
year: 2.899383983573
金額: 0.079819252
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.08065753
cohort_shares_sold: 239656.777
execution_price_eur_assumed: 33.3057
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1059

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想定日: 2029-12-31
year: 3.151266255989
金額: 0.182886632
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.18500822
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.988532469
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1151

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想定日: 2029-12-31
year: 3.151266255989
金額: 0.079732591
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.08065753
cohort_shares_sold: 245834.846
execution_price_eur_assumed: 32.4334
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1151

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想定日: 2030-03-31
year: 3.397672826831
金額: 0.190152137
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.19257534
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.987416844
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1241

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想定日: 2030-03-31
year: 3.397672826831
金額: 0.092519606
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.09369863
cohort_shares_sold: 292763.063
execution_price_eur_assumed: 31.6022
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1241

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想定日: 2030-06-30
year: 3.64681724846
金額: 0.19203965
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.19471507
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.986259826
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1332

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想定日: 2030-06-30
year: 3.64681724846
金額: 0.093437986
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.09473973
cohort_shares_sold: 303533.2
execution_price_eur_assumed: 30.7834
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1332

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想定日: 2030-09-30
year: 3.898699520876
金額: 0.193913728
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.19685479
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.985059718
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1424

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想定日: 2030-09-30
year: 3.898699520876
金額: 0.094349829
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.09578082
cohort_shares_sold: 314738.124
execution_price_eur_assumed: 29.9772
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1424

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想定日: 2030-12-31
year: 4.150581793292
金額: 0.193671351
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.19685479
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.98382847
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1516

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想定日: 2030-12-31
year: 4.150581793292
金額: 0.0942319
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.09578082
cohort_shares_sold: 322798.627
execution_price_eur_assumed: 29.1922
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1516

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想定日: 2031-03-31
year: 4.396988364134
金額: 0.200601838
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.20416438
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.982550601
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1606

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想定日: 2031-03-31
year: 4.396988364134
金額: 0.10660001
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.10849315
cohort_shares_sold: 374770.956
execution_price_eur_assumed: 28.444
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1606

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想定日: 2031-06-30
year: 4.646132785763
金額: 0.202557147
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.20643288
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.981225232
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1697

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想定日: 2031-06-30
year: 4.646132785763
金額: 0.107639064
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.10969863
cohort_shares_sold: 388489.08
execution_price_eur_assumed: 27.7071
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1697

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想定日: 2031-09-30
year: 4.898015058179
金額: 0.204496123
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.20870137
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.97985041
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1789

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想定日: 2031-09-30
year: 4.898015058179
金額: 0.108669437
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.11090411
cohort_shares_sold: 402755.818
execution_price_eur_assumed: 26.9815
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1789

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想定日: 2031-12-31
year: 5.149897330595
金額: 0.20420173
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.20870137
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.978439815
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1881

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想定日: 2031-12-31
year: 5.149897330595
金額: 0.108512996
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.11090411
cohort_shares_sold: 412992.021
execution_price_eur_assumed: 26.2748
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1881

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想定日: 2032-03-31
year: 5.399041752225
金額: 0.212542715
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.21755464
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.976962434
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1972

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想定日: 2032-03-31
year: 5.399041752225
金額: 0.12145298
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.12431694
cohort_shares_sold: 474535.06
execution_price_eur_assumed: 25.5941
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 1972

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想定日: 2032-06-30
year: 5.648186173854
金額: 0.212212989
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.21755464
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.97544683
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2063

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想定日: 2032-06-30
year: 5.648186173854
金額: 0.121264565
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.12431694
cohort_shares_sold: 486400.783
execution_price_eur_assumed: 24.931
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2063

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想定日: 2032-09-30
year: 5.90006844627
金額: 0.21419918
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.21994536
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.973874533
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2155

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想定日: 2032-09-30
year: 5.90006844627
金額: 0.122399532
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.12568306
cohort_shares_sold: 504156.776
execution_price_eur_assumed: 24.2781
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2155

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想定日: 2032-12-31
year: 6.151950718686
金額: 0.213844328
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.21994536
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.97226117
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2247

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想定日: 2032-12-31
year: 6.151950718686
金額: 0.122196759
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.12568306
cohort_shares_sold: 516857.76
execution_price_eur_assumed: 23.6422
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2247

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想定日: 2033-03-31
year: 6.398357289528
金額: 0.220654403
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.22734247
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.970581552
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2337

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想定日: 2033-03-31
year: 6.398357289528
金額: 0.134020028
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.13808219
cohort_shares_sold: 581776.272
execution_price_eur_assumed: 23.0364
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2337

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想定日: 2033-06-30
year: 6.647501711157
金額: 0.222705598
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.22986849
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.968839159
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2428

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想定日: 2033-06-30
year: 6.647501711157
金額: 0.135265873
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.13961644
cohort_shares_sold: 602802.108
execution_price_eur_assumed: 22.4395
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2428

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想定日: 2033-09-30
year: 6.899383983573
金額: 0.224732795
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.23239452
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.967031386
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2520

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想定日: 2033-09-30
year: 6.899383983573
金額: 0.136497142
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.14115068
cohort_shares_sold: 624648.331
execution_price_eur_assumed: 21.8518
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2520

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想定日: 2033-12-31
year: 7.151266255989
金額: 0.224301654
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.23239452
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.965176173
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2612

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想定日: 2033-12-31
year: 7.151266255989
金額: 0.136235278
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.14115068
cohort_shares_sold: 640216.859
execution_price_eur_assumed: 21.2796
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2612

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想定日: 2034-03-31
year: 7.397672826831
金額: 0.230150717
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.23893151
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.96324976
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2702

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想定日: 2034-03-31
year: 7.397672826831
金額: 0.147258456
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.15287671
cohort_shares_sold: 710219.7
execution_price_eur_assumed: 20.7342
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2702

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想定日: 2034-06-30
year: 7.64681724846
金額: 0.23222509
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.2415863
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.961251067
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2793

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想定日: 2034-06-30
year: 7.64681724846
金額: 0.148585713
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.15457534
cohort_shares_sold: 735681.35
execution_price_eur_assumed: 20.197
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2793

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想定日: 2034-09-30
year: 7.898699520876
金額: 0.234270459
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.2442411
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.959177073
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2885

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想定日: 2034-09-30
year: 7.898699520876
金額: 0.149894412
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.15627397
cohort_shares_sold: 762120.488
execution_price_eur_assumed: 19.6681
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2885

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想定日: 2034-12-31
year: 8.150581793292
金額: 0.233750531
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.2442411
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.957048323
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2977

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想定日: 2034-12-31
year: 8.150581793292
金額: 0.149561743
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.15627397
cohort_shares_sold: 780879.847
execution_price_eur_assumed: 19.153
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 2977

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想定日: 2035-03-31
year: 8.396988364134
金額: 0.23920643
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.25052055
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.954837566
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3067

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想定日: 2035-03-31
year: 8.396988364134
金額: 0.160098792
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.16767123
cohort_shares_sold: 857880.304
execution_price_eur_assumed: 18.6621
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3067

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想定日: 2035-06-30
year: 8.646132785763
金額: 0.241283172
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.25330411
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.952543456
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3158

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想定日: 2035-06-30
year: 8.646132785763
金額: 0.161488737
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.16953425
cohort_shares_sold: 888343.858
execution_price_eur_assumed: 18.1786
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3158

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想定日: 2035-09-30
year: 8.898015058179
金額: 0.243324897
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.25608767
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.95016248
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3250

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想定日: 2035-09-30
year: 8.898015058179
金額: 0.162855246
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.17139726
cohort_shares_sold: 919954.015
execution_price_eur_assumed: 17.7025
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3250

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想定日: 2035-12-31
year: 9.149897330595
金額: 0.242698939
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.25608767
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.947718169
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3342

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想定日: 2035-12-31
year: 9.149897330595
金額: 0.162436298
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.17139726
cohort_shares_sold: 942264.761
execution_price_eur_assumed: 17.2389
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3342

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想定日: 2036-03-31
year: 9.399041752225
金額: 0.249802867
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.26429781
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.945156763
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3433

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想定日: 2036-03-31
year: 9.399041752225
金額: 0.173898515
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.18398907
cohort_shares_sold: 1035585.506
execution_price_eur_assumed: 16.7923
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3433

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想定日: 2036-06-30
year: 9.648186173854
金額: 0.249107916
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.26429781
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.942527342
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3524

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想定日: 2036-06-30
year: 9.648186173854
金額: 0.17341473
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.18398907
cohort_shares_sold: 1060171.923
execution_price_eur_assumed: 16.3572
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3524

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想定日: 2036-09-30
year: 9.90006844627
金額: 0.251116011
event_type: ordinary_dividend
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.26720219
old_holder_fraction_at_payment: 0.939797741
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3616

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想定日: 2036-09-30
year: 9.90006844627
金額: 0.174812651
event_type: pro_rata_buyback_tender
source_of_cash: QIAGEN_company
assumption_status: scenario_assumption_not_confirmed_payment
corporate_total_oku: 0.18601093
cohort_shares_sold: 1097459.933
execution_price_eur_assumed: 15.9288
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3616

その他の数値・前提

deal_status

takeover_fails

deal_expected_closing_year

未確認

deal_settlement_years_from_2026_11_06

未確認

adjust_oku

売上高

23.8963

営業利益

4.796

純利益

3.4696

期間内の親会社利益合計（億）

33.093346805

equity_oku

54.875724606

corporate_payout_oku

9.589904822

期間内株主受取

12.396091965

terminal_old_holder_ownership

multiple

kind: fundamental_trailing_profit_residual_income_pb
値: 0.626974227
why: 2036-11-06時点の直前約12カ月のUS GAAP普通株利益（2035年末以降の分割補間）3.464971億EUR、同日の会社自己資本54.875725億EUR、ROE=0.06314214、k=0.09、2037年以降のg=0.018。正当化P/B=max(0,(ROE-g)/(k-g))。会社全体の終価に基準日旧株主の残存持株比率0.93868624を掛ける。市場PBRは不使用。

終価

32.296124251

annual

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対象年度: 2027
売上高: 19.2482
cost_of_sales_oku: 6.9101
rd_oku: 1.8863
sales_marketing_oku: 3.9651
general_admin_oku: 1.0971
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.1716
operating_expenses_total_oku: 15.0302
営業利益: 4.218
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.32
net_finance_oku: -0.12
pretax_oku: 4.098
tax_oku: 0.9425
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.1555
dividend_oku: 0.64
buyback_oku: 0.2
sbc_offset_oku: 0.27
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: -0.07
corporate_payout_oku: 0.57
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 0.837831951
equity_oku: 34.585500016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 0.837831951
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 0.57
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.1555
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 206799463.794
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 206017963.321
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.996220974
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2027-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2027-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2028
売上高: 19.6996
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.0722
rd_oku: 1.9306
sales_marketing_oku: 4.0581
general_admin_oku: 1.1229
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.2403
operating_expenses_total_oku: 15.4241
営業利益: 4.2755
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3312
net_finance_oku: -0.1389
pretax_oku: 4.1366
tax_oku: 0.9514
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.1852
dividend_oku: 0.687
buyback_oku: 0.26
sbc_offset_oku: 0.2794
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: -0.0194
corporate_payout_oku: 0.6676
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 0.941327297
equity_oku: 37.103100016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 0.941327297
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 0.6676
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.1852
days_within_horizon: 366
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 206851233.881
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 205328314.405
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.99263761
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2028-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2028-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2029
売上高: 20.1661
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.2396
rd_oku: 1.9763
sales_marketing_oku: 4.1542
general_admin_oku: 1.1495
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.3119
operating_expenses_total_oku: 15.8315
営業利益: 4.3346
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3428
net_finance_oku: -0.1578
pretax_oku: 4.1768
tax_oku: 0.9607
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.2161
dividend_oku: 0.734
buyback_oku: 0.32
sbc_offset_oku: 0.2892
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.0308
corporate_payout_oku: 0.7648
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.043570043
equity_oku: 39.554400016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.043570043
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 0.7648
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.2161
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 206759906.521
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 204388880.886
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.988532469
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2029-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2029-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2030
売上高: 20.6482
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.4127
rd_oku: 2.0235
sales_marketing_oku: 4.2535
general_admin_oku: 1.1769
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.3862
operating_expenses_total_oku: 16.2528
営業利益: 4.3954
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3548
net_finance_oku: -0.1767
pretax_oku: 4.2187
tax_oku: 0.9703
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.2484
dividend_oku: 0.781
buyback_oku: 0.38
sbc_offset_oku: 0.2994
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.0806
corporate_payout_oku: 0.8616
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.144316186
equity_oku: 41.941200016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.144316186
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 0.8616
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.2484
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 206494377.861
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 203155047.873
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.98382847
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2030-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2030-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2031
売上高: 21.1464
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.5916
rd_oku: 2.0723
sales_marketing_oku: 4.3562
general_admin_oku: 1.2053
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.4631
operating_expenses_total_oku: 16.6885
営業利益: 4.4579
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3672
net_finance_oku: -0.1956
pretax_oku: 4.2623
tax_oku: 0.9803
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.282
dividend_oku: 0.828
buyback_oku: 0.44
sbc_offset_oku: 0.3098
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.1302
corporate_payout_oku: 0.9582
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.243278346
equity_oku: 44.265000016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.243278346
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 0.9582
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.282
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 206017822.327
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 201576039.998
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.978439815
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2031-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2031-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2032
売上高: 21.6611
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.7763
rd_oku: 2.1228
sales_marketing_oku: 4.4622
general_admin_oku: 1.2347
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.543
operating_expenses_total_oku: 17.139
営業利益: 4.5221
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3801
net_finance_oku: -0.2144
pretax_oku: 4.3077
tax_oku: 0.9908
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.3169
dividend_oku: 0.875
buyback_oku: 0.5
sbc_offset_oku: 0.3207
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.1793
corporate_payout_oku: 1.0543
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.340113048
equity_oku: 46.527600016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.340113048
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 1.0543
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.3169
days_within_horizon: 366
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 205288553.885
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 199594089.62
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.97226117
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2032-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2032-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2033
売上高: 22.1929
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.9673
rd_oku: 2.1749
sales_marketing_oku: 4.5717
general_admin_oku: 1.265
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.626
operating_expenses_total_oku: 17.6049
営業利益: 4.588
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3934
net_finance_oku: -0.2333
pretax_oku: 4.3547
tax_oku: 1.0016
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.3531
dividend_oku: 0.922
buyback_oku: 0.56
sbc_offset_oku: 0.3319
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.2281
corporate_payout_oku: 1.1501
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.434412771
equity_oku: 48.730600016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.434412771
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 1.1501
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.3531
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 204257680.237
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 197144646.051
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.965176173
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2033-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2033-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2034
売上高: 22.7424
cost_of_sales_oku: 8.1645
rd_oku: 2.2288
sales_marketing_oku: 4.6849
general_admin_oku: 1.2963
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.7123
operating_expenses_total_oku: 18.0868
営業利益: 4.6556
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.4071
net_finance_oku: -0.2522
pretax_oku: 4.4034
tax_oku: 1.0128
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.3906
dividend_oku: 0.969
buyback_oku: 0.62
sbc_offset_oku: 0.3435
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.2765
corporate_payout_oku: 1.2455
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.525697121
equity_oku: 50.875700016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.525697121
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 1.2455
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.3906
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 202869322.262
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 194155744.665
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.957048323
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2034-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2034-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2035
売上高: 23.31
cost_of_sales_oku: 8.3683
rd_oku: 2.2844
sales_marketing_oku: 4.8019
general_admin_oku: 1.3287
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.8018
operating_expenses_total_oku: 18.5851
営業利益: 4.7249
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.4214
net_finance_oku: -0.2711
pretax_oku: 4.4538
tax_oku: 1.0244
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.4294
dividend_oku: 1.016
buyback_oku: 0.68
sbc_offset_oku: 0.3555
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.3245
corporate_payout_oku: 1.3405
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.61339251
equity_oku: 52.964600016
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.61339251
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 1.3405
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 3.4294
days_within_horizon: 365
company_shares_model_at_year_end: 201059036.248
original_holder_shares_at_year_end: 190547301.727
old_holder_fraction_at_year_end: 0.947718169
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2035-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2035-12-31

内容を開く

対象年度: 2036
売上高: 23.8963
cost_of_sales_oku: 8.5788
rd_oku: 2.3418
sales_marketing_oku: 4.9226
general_admin_oku: 1.3621
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.895
operating_expenses_total_oku: 19.1003
営業利益: 4.796
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.4361
net_finance_oku: -0.29
pretax_oku: 4.506
tax_oku: 1.0364
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.4696
dividend_oku: 1.063
buyback_oku: 0.74
sbc_offset_oku: 0.368
new_issuance_oku: 0
net_buyback_oku: 0.372
corporate_payout_oku: 1.435
tender_cash_from_bidder_oku: 0
old_holder_cash_oku: 1.272152689
equity_oku: 54.9992
old_holder_ownership_after_year: 1
post_takeover_business_forecast_reference_only: いいえ
full_calendar_year_forecast_retained: はい
cashflow_timestamp_convention: 明示した日付で計上。2036-11-07以降は期間外。
holder_cash_received_within_horizon_oku: 1.272152689
corporate_payout_within_horizon_oku: 1.037087432
business_net_recognized_within_horizon_oku: 2.948212022
days_within_horizon: 311
year_2036_full_fy_not_horizon_terminal: はい
fiscal_2036_post_valuation_payment_date_excluded: 2036-12-31
equity_oku_as_of_2036_11_06: 54.875724606
original_holder_shares_as_of_2036_11_06: 187354084.366
company_shares_as_of_2036_11_06_model: 199591809.252
post_horizon_dividend_oku_excluded: 0.267202186
post_horizon_buyback_oku_excluded: 0.186010929
post_horizon_net_oku_excluded: 0.521387978
full_calendar_year_forecast_as_of: 2036-12-31
in_horizon_reporting_end_date: 2036-11-06
equity_oku_full_fy_2036_12_31_reference_not_terminal: 54.9992
capital_at_2036_11_06_oku_authoritative: 54.875724606
full_FY_2036_reported_equals_terminal_capital: いいえ
注記: 2036 annual fields (including equity_oku) preserve the original FULL CALENDAR YEAR forecast to 2036-12-31. For the 2036-11-06 terminal use capital_at_2036_11_06_oku_authoritative and periods_in_horizon[2036_partial]; December payments are excluded.

キャッシュフローの算出方法

timed_holder_cashflows_v1

terminal_event

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想定日: 2036-11-06
year: 10.001368925394
金額: 32.296124251
event_type: residual_old_holder_equity
not_in_payout_oku: はい
actual_days_from_2026_11_06: 3653
discount_exponent_primary_site: 10
discount_exponent_reference_actual_days: 10.001368925394
注記: Economic receipt date 2036-11-06; site convention discounts THIS terminal ONLY with exponent 10. Other cash event exponents use actual days/365.25.

periods_in_horizon

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period_label: 2026_partial
start_exclusive: 2026-11-06
end_inclusive: 2026-12-31
actual_days: 55
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.1505817933
売上高: 2.93532609
cost_of_sales_oku: 1.05671739
rd_oku: 0.28766196
sales_marketing_oku: 0.60174185
general_admin_oku: 0.16731359
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 0.11645652
operating_expenses_total_oku: 2.2298913
営業利益: 0.70543478
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.04752717
net_finance_oku: -0.00597826
pretax_oku: 0.69945652
tax_oku: 0.13152174
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 0.567934783
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.059782609
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: -0.103847174
corporate_net_payout_oku: -0.059782609
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 0
equity_start_oku: 31.476129799
equity_end_oku: 32.000000016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2027
start_exclusive: 2026-12-31
end_inclusive: 2027-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 19.2482
cost_of_sales_oku: 6.9101
rd_oku: 1.8863
sales_marketing_oku: 3.9651
general_admin_oku: 1.0971
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.1716
operating_expenses_total_oku: 15.0302
営業利益: 4.218
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.32
net_finance_oku: -0.12
pretax_oku: 4.098
tax_oku: 0.9425
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.1555
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.64
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.2
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.27
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 0.57
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 0.837831951
equity_start_oku: 32
equity_end_oku: 34.585500016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 1.6122E-8
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2028
start_exclusive: 2027-12-31
end_inclusive: 2028-12-31
actual_days: 366
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 1.0020533881
売上高: 19.6996
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.0722
rd_oku: 1.9306
sales_marketing_oku: 4.0581
general_admin_oku: 1.1229
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.2403
operating_expenses_total_oku: 15.4241
営業利益: 4.2755
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3312
net_finance_oku: -0.1389
pretax_oku: 4.1366
tax_oku: 0.9514
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.1852
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.687
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.26
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.2794
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 0.6676
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 0.941327297
equity_start_oku: 34.585500016
equity_end_oku: 37.103100016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2029
start_exclusive: 2028-12-31
end_inclusive: 2029-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 20.1661
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.2396
rd_oku: 1.9763
sales_marketing_oku: 4.1542
general_admin_oku: 1.1495
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.3119
operating_expenses_total_oku: 15.8315
営業利益: 4.3346
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3428
net_finance_oku: -0.1578
pretax_oku: 4.1768
tax_oku: 0.9607
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.2161
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.734
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.32
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.2892
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 0.7648
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.043570043
equity_start_oku: 37.103100016
equity_end_oku: 39.554400016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2030
start_exclusive: 2029-12-31
end_inclusive: 2030-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 20.6482
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.4127
rd_oku: 2.0235
sales_marketing_oku: 4.2535
general_admin_oku: 1.1769
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.3862
operating_expenses_total_oku: 16.2528
営業利益: 4.3954
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3548
net_finance_oku: -0.1767
pretax_oku: 4.2187
tax_oku: 0.9703
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.2484
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.781
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.38
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.2994
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 0.8616
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.144316186
equity_start_oku: 39.554400016
equity_end_oku: 41.941200016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2031
start_exclusive: 2030-12-31
end_inclusive: 2031-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 21.1464
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.5916
rd_oku: 2.0723
sales_marketing_oku: 4.3562
general_admin_oku: 1.2053
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.4631
operating_expenses_total_oku: 16.6885
営業利益: 4.4579
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3672
net_finance_oku: -0.1956
pretax_oku: 4.2623
tax_oku: 0.9803
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.282
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.828
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.44
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.3098
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 0.9582
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.243278346
equity_start_oku: 41.941200016
equity_end_oku: 44.265000016
equity_identity_residual_oku: -0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2032
start_exclusive: 2031-12-31
end_inclusive: 2032-12-31
actual_days: 366
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 1.0020533881
売上高: 21.6611
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.7763
rd_oku: 2.1228
sales_marketing_oku: 4.4622
general_admin_oku: 1.2347
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.543
operating_expenses_total_oku: 17.139
営業利益: 4.5221
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3801
net_finance_oku: -0.2144
pretax_oku: 4.3077
tax_oku: 0.9908
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.3169
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.875
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.5
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.3207
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 1.0543
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.340113048
equity_start_oku: 44.265000016
equity_end_oku: 46.527600016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2033
start_exclusive: 2032-12-31
end_inclusive: 2033-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 22.1929
cost_of_sales_oku: 7.9673
rd_oku: 2.1749
sales_marketing_oku: 4.5717
general_admin_oku: 1.265
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.626
operating_expenses_total_oku: 17.6049
営業利益: 4.588
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.3934
net_finance_oku: -0.2333
pretax_oku: 4.3547
tax_oku: 1.0016
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.3531
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.922
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.56
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.3319
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 1.1501
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.434412771
equity_start_oku: 46.527600016
equity_end_oku: 48.730600016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2034
start_exclusive: 2033-12-31
end_inclusive: 2034-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 22.7424
cost_of_sales_oku: 8.1645
rd_oku: 2.2288
sales_marketing_oku: 4.6849
general_admin_oku: 1.2963
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.7123
operating_expenses_total_oku: 18.0868
営業利益: 4.6556
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.4071
net_finance_oku: -0.2522
pretax_oku: 4.4034
tax_oku: 1.0128
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.3906
dividend_paid_company_oku: 0.969
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.62
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.3435
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 1.2455
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.525697121
equity_start_oku: 48.730600016
equity_end_oku: 50.875700016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label: 2035
start_exclusive: 2034-12-31
end_inclusive: 2035-12-31
actual_days: 365
year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25: 0.9993155373
売上高: 23.31
cost_of_sales_oku: 8.3683
rd_oku: 2.2844
sales_marketing_oku: 4.8019
general_admin_oku: 1.3287
amortization_restructuring_other_oku: 1.8018
operating_expenses_total_oku: 18.5851
営業利益: 4.7249
sbc_expense_in_costs_oku: 0.4214
net_finance_oku: -0.2711
pretax_oku: 4.4538
tax_oku: 1.0244
noncontrolling_net_oku: 0
純利益: 3.4294
dividend_paid_company_oku: 1.016
buyback_paid_company_oku: 0.68
sbc_capital_credit_oku: 0.3555
new_issuance_company_receipt_oku: 0
oci_and_other_oku: 0
corporate_net_payout_oku: 1.3405
old_holder_cash_received_oku: 1.61339251
equity_start_oku: 50.875700016
equity_end_oku: 52.964600016
equity_identity_residual_oku: 0
corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash: はい
post_tender_business_reference_only: いいえ
corporate_net_payout_definition: company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate
is_in_10_year_holder_horizon: はい

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period_label

2036_partial

start_exclusive

2035-12-31

end_inclusive

2036-11-06

actual_days

311

year_fraction_actual_days_over_365_25

0.8514715948

売上高

20.30532596

cost_of_sales_oku

7.28963607

rd_oku

1.98989016

sales_marketing_oku

4.18286503

general_admin_oku

1.15741284

amortization_restructuring_other_oku

1.61023224

operating_expenses_total_oku

16.23003634

営業利益

4.07528962

sbc_expense_in_costs_oku

0.37056585

net_finance_oku

-0.24642077

pretax_oku

3.82886885

tax_oku

0.88065683

noncontrolling_net_oku

純利益

2.948212022

dividend_paid_company_oku

0.795797814

buyback_paid_company_oku

0.553989071

sbc_capital_credit_oku

0.312699454

new_issuance_company_receipt_oku

oci_and_other_oku

corporate_net_payout_oku

1.037087432

old_holder_cash_received_oku

1.272152689

equity_start_oku

52.964600016

equity_end_oku

54.875724606

equity_identity_residual_oku

-0

corporate_capital_not_deducting_bidder_tender_cash

はい

post_tender_business_reference_only

いいえ

post_horizon_cash_excluded

dividend_oku: 0.267202186
buyback_oku: 0.186010929
new_issuance_oku: 0

2036_profit_fraction_recognized

0.849726776

corporate_net_payout_definition

company_dividend+company_buyback-SBC_APIC_credit-new_equity_cash; OCI is separate

is_in_10_year_holder_horizon

はい

share_ledger_events

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日付: 2026-12-31
year: 0.1505817933
equity_oku: 32.000000016
holder_shares: 206497000
company_shares_model: 206631362.6725
holder_fraction: 0.999349747

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日付: 2027-03-31
year: 0.3969883641
equity_oku: 32.637520564
holder_shares: 206383406.567
company_shares_model: 206671175.8099
holder_fraction: 0.998607599

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日付: 2027-06-30
year: 0.6461327858
equity_oku: 33.282124674
holder_shares: 206265586.9795
company_shares_model: 206712502.0134
holder_fraction: 0.997837987

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日付: 2027-09-30
year: 0.8980150582
equity_oku: 33.933812345
holder_shares: 206143367.0884
company_shares_model: 206755405.9799
holder_fraction: 0.997039793

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日付: 2027-12-31
year: 1.1498973306
equity_oku: 34.585500016
holder_shares: 206017963.3215
company_shares_model: 206799463.7939
holder_fraction: 0.996220974

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日付: 2028-03-31
year: 1.3990417522
equity_oku: 35.211460672
holder_shares: 205853015.8433
company_shares_model: 206811828.7393
holder_fraction: 0.995363839

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日付: 2028-06-30
year: 1.6481861739
equity_oku: 35.837421328
holder_shares: 205683830.7223
company_shares_model: 206824522.562
holder_fraction: 0.994484736

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日付: 2028-09-30
year: 1.9000684463
equity_oku: 36.470260672
holder_shares: 205508347.4415
company_shares_model: 206837701.0128
holder_fraction: 0.993572963

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日付: 2028-12-31
year: 2.1519507187
equity_oku: 37.103100016
holder_shares: 205328314.4047
company_shares_model: 206851233.8814
holder_fraction: 0.99263761

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日付: 2029-03-31
year: 2.3983572895
equity_oku: 37.707530153
holder_shares: 205105460.3794
company_shares_model: 206829603.8724
holder_fraction: 0.991663942

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日付: 2029-06-30
year: 2.6475017112
equity_oku: 38.318676181
holder_shares: 204874372.5091
company_shares_model: 206807151.8325
holder_fraction: 0.990654195

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日付: 2029-09-30
year: 2.8993839836
equity_oku: 38.936538098
holder_shares: 204634715.7324
company_shares_model: 206783842.6125
holder_fraction: 0.989606892

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日付: 2029-12-31
year: 3.151266256
equity_oku: 39.554400016
holder_shares: 204388880.8864
company_shares_model: 206759906.5207
holder_fraction: 0.988532469

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日付: 2030-03-31
year: 3.3976728268
equity_oku: 40.142926044
holder_shares: 204096117.8237
company_shares_model: 206697018.6059
holder_fraction: 0.987416844

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日付: 2030-06-30
year: 3.6468172485
equity_oku: 40.737991249
holder_shares: 203792584.6242
company_shares_model: 206631740.6867
holder_fraction: 0.986259826

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日付: 2030-09-30
year: 3.8986995209
equity_oku: 41.339595633
holder_shares: 203477846.5
company_shares_model: 206563970.5694
holder_fraction: 0.985059718

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日付: 2030-12-31
year: 4.1505817933
equity_oku: 41.941200016
holder_shares: 203155047.8727
company_shares_model: 206494377.861
holder_fraction: 0.98382847

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日付: 2031-03-31
year: 4.3969883641
equity_oku: 42.514191797
holder_shares: 202780276.9163
company_shares_model: 206381510.2561
holder_fraction: 0.982550601

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日付: 2031-06-30
year: 4.6461327858
equity_oku: 43.093550153
holder_shares: 202391787.8367
company_shares_model: 206264353.2094
holder_fraction: 0.981225232

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日付: 2031-09-30
year: 4.8980150582
equity_oku: 43.679275085
holder_shares: 201989032.019
company_shares_model: 206142723.3089
holder_fraction: 0.97985041

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日付: 2031-12-31
year: 5.1498973306
equity_oku: 44.265000016
holder_shares: 201576039.9979
company_shares_model: 206017822.3272
holder_fraction: 0.978439815

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日付: 2032-03-31
year: 5.3990417522
equity_oku: 44.827559033
holder_shares: 201101504.9384
company_shares_model: 205843641.3491
holder_fraction: 0.976962434

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日付: 2032-06-30
year: 5.6481861739
equity_oku: 45.390118049
holder_shares: 200615104.1558
company_shares_model: 205664827.5837
holder_fraction: 0.97544683

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日付: 2032-09-30
year: 5.9000684463
equity_oku: 45.958859033
holder_shares: 200110947.3802
company_shares_model: 205479187.0176
holder_fraction: 0.973874533

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日付: 2032-12-31
year: 6.1519507187
equity_oku: 46.527600016
holder_shares: 199594089.6203
company_shares_model: 205288553.8848
holder_fraction: 0.97226117

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日付: 2033-03-31
year: 6.3983572895
equity_oku: 47.070805496
holder_shares: 199012313.3486
company_shares_model: 205044401.3543
holder_fraction: 0.970581552

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日付: 2033-06-30
year: 6.6475017112
equity_oku: 47.620046591
holder_shares: 198409511.2407
company_shares_model: 204790970.0047
holder_fraction: 0.968839159

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日付: 2033-09-30
year: 6.8993839836
equity_oku: 48.175323304
holder_shares: 197784862.9101
company_shares_model: 204527863.0838
holder_fraction: 0.967031386

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日付: 2033-12-31
year: 7.151266256
equity_oku: 48.730600016
holder_shares: 197144646.051
company_shares_model: 204257680.2373
holder_fraction: 0.965176173

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日付: 2034-03-31
year: 7.3976728268
equity_oku: 49.259528783
holder_shares: 196434426.3505
company_shares_model: 203928860.9743
holder_fraction: 0.96324976

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日付: 2034-06-30
year: 7.6468172485
equity_oku: 49.794334537
holder_shares: 195698745.0004
company_shares_model: 203587545.2017
holder_fraction: 0.961251067

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日付: 2034-09-30
year: 7.8986995209
equity_oku: 50.335017276
holder_shares: 194936624.5124
company_shares_model: 203233198.5824
holder_fraction: 0.959177073

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日付: 2034-12-31
year: 8.1505817933
equity_oku: 50.875700016
holder_shares: 194155744.665
company_shares_model: 202869322.262
holder_fraction: 0.957048323

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日付: 2035-03-31
year: 8.3969883641
equity_oku: 51.390771249
holder_shares: 193297864.3611
company_shares_model: 202440573.392
holder_fraction: 0.954837566

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日付: 2035-06-30
year: 8.6461327858
equity_oku: 51.911565496
holder_shares: 192409520.5029
company_shares_model: 201995530.2688
holder_fraction: 0.952543456

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日付: 2035-09-30
year: 8.8980150582
equity_oku: 52.438082756
holder_shares: 191489566.4883
company_shares_model: 201533496.1677
holder_fraction: 0.95016248

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日付: 2035-12-31
year: 9.1498973306
equity_oku: 52.964600016
holder_shares: 190547301.7274
company_shares_model: 201059036.2478
holder_fraction: 0.947718169

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日付: 2036-03-31
year: 9.3990417522
equity_oku: 53.470470508
holder_shares: 189511716.2212
company_shares_model: 200508237.0013
holder_fraction: 0.945156763

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日付: 2036-06-30
year: 9.6481861739
equity_oku: 53.976341
holder_shares: 188451544.2985
company_shares_model: 199942787.8442
holder_fraction: 0.942527342

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日付: 2036-09-30
year: 9.9000684463
equity_oku: 54.487770508
holder_shares: 187354084.3656
company_shares_model: 199355750.8148
holder_fraction: 0.939797741

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日付: 2036-11-06
year: 10.0013689254
equity_oku: 54.875724606
holder_shares: 187354084.3656
company_shares_model: 199591809.2522
holder_fraction: 0.938686237

opening_holder_shares

206497000

opening_company_economic_shares_model

206497000

old_holder_shares_at_2036_11_06

187354084.3656

company_economic_shares_at_2036_11_06_model

199591809.2522

old_holder_ownership_at_2036_11_06

0.938686237

old_holder_sold_into_buybacks_shares_total

19142915.6344

shares_added_for_sbc_2026_11_06_to_terminal

12939548.9856

shares_added_for_cash_issuance_2026_11_06_to_terminal

share_transaction_price_method

Assumed EUR per share for SBC vesting, repurchases and external issuance: 45.205 EUR constant in acquisition branches as synthetic company reference; in failed branches 45.205*(0.90^t) mild_bear and 45.205*(0.83^t) bear, with 5 EUR floor; t=actual days/365.25. Analyst assumption, not actual execution price.

year_end_2036_full_fy_capital_reference_oku

54.9992

2036_11_06_trailing_net_oku

3.464970926

terminal_company_mcap_before_holder_fraction_oku

34.405665042

equity_reconciliation

内容を開く

equity_start_2026_11_06_oku: 31.476129799
net_profit_2026_11_06_to_2036_11_06_oku: 33.093346805
sbc_expense_already_in_costs_oku: 3.73609302
sbc_apic_credit_oku: 3.171882063
oci_and_other_oku: -0.103847174
external_new_share_cash_oku: 0
dividends_paid_by_QIAGEN_oku: 8.247797814
buybacks_paid_by_QIAGEN_oku: 4.513989071
company_net_capital_return_oku: 9.589904822
net_return_excludes_OCI: はい
equity_end_2036_11_06_oku: 54.875724606
calculation: E_end = E_start + GAAP_net_profit + OCI - corporate_net_capital_return; corporate_net_capital_return = company_dividends + company_buybacks - SBC_APIC_credit - external_share_issuance_cash. Equivalent fully expanded identity. Acquirer tender payment does not affect QIAGEN equity.
calculated_equity_end_oku: 54.875724608
residual_oku: -2.0E-9
max_annual_and_partial_equity_residual_oku: 1.6E-8
max_operating_profit_and_net_income_bridge_residual_oku: 1.0E-8

holder_cash_reconciliation

内容を開く

dated_holder_cash_events_count

ordinary_dividends_oku

8.021733927

conditional_dividends_oku

pro_rata_buyback_sale_proceeds_oku

4.374358038

tender_paid_by_acquirer_oku

payout_oku_cash_events_only

12.396091965

sum_from_11_period_rows_oku

12.396091962

terminal_old_holder_residual_oku

32.296124251

holder_cash_not_equal_corporate_capital_return

はい

corporate_capital_return_oku

9.589904822

event_cash_total_difference_oku

period_holder_cash_total_difference_oku

3.0E-9

cash_by_year_oku

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2027: 0
2028: 0.837831952
2029: 0.941327297
2030: 1.043570043
2031: 1.144316187
2032: 1.243278345
2033: 1.340113048
2034: 1.434412771
2035: 1.525697121
2036: 1.613392511
2037: 1.27215269

explanation

Issuer proceeds/scrip SBC change shares and company capital but are not direct cash expenditures by the old cohort. Acquirer tender money is NOT a QIAGEN dividend/buyback. Buybacks sold pro rata reduce the cohort remaining shares, which prevents counting the same value in the terminal.

pv_timed_payout_oku

7.772149047

pv_timed_terminal_oku

13.642231904

pv_timed_total_oku

21.414380952

timed_value_per_share_eur

10.370310925

timed_gap_vs_2026_11_06_close

-0.770593719159

irr_timed_holder_cashflows

-0.078369173521

irr_npv_residual_at_irr_oku

-0

price_per_original_share_eur

45.205

valuation_horizon_2036_11_06_years_actual_365_25

10.0013689254

year_2036_post_valuation_excluded

内容を開く

dates: 2036-11-07 through 2036-12-31
days: 55
full_FY_net_profit_not_recognized_oku: 0.521387978
dividend_scheduled_2036_12_31_excluded_oku: 0.267202186
buyback_scheduled_2036_12_31_excluded_oku: 0.186010929
new_issuance_2036_12_31_excluded_oku: 0
sbc_apic_credit_after_valuation_excluded_oku: 0.055300546
detail: FY2036 annual forecast remains in annual[2036] as full-year reference. The post-horizon part is not added to payout, terminal capital or holder equity, except possible long-run expectations implicit in the justified terminal multiple.

valuation_date_exact

2026-11-06

terminal_date_exact

2036-11-06

corporate_payout_scope

2026-11-06 to 2036-11-06. From 11 period rows; separate from payout_oku (original-holder cash events).

terminal_discount_exponent_primary

terminal_discount_exponent_actual_days_reference

10.001368925394

actual_days_terminal_reference

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terminal_discount_exponent: 10.001368925394
pv_timed_payout_oku: 7.772149047
pv_timed_terminal_oku: 13.640622614
pv_timed_total_oku: 21.412771661
value_per_share_eur: 10.369531597
gap_vs_2026_11_06_close: -0.77061095904
irr_timed_holder_cashflows: -0.078360420281
irr_npv_residual_at_irr_oku: -0
pv_main_minus_reference_oku: 0.001609290586
label: REFERENCE ONLY; all cash events unchanged; only terminal discount exponent actual_days/365.25 rather than site fixed-10.

valuation_method_primary

timed_holder_cashflows_v1__site_terminal_year_10_fixed

terminal_valuation_reconciliation

内容を開く

日付: 2036-11-06
trailing_2035_Nov06_to_Dec31_net_oku: 0.5167589041
trailing_2036_Jan01_to_Nov06_net_oku: 2.9482120219
trailing_12_month_model_net_oku: 3.464970926
company_equity_on_date_oku: 54.875724606
terminal_roe: 0.063142144379
g: 0.018
fundamental_company_pb: 0.626974227484
fundamental_whole_company_equity_value_oku: 34.4056650425
old_cohort_remaining_shares: 187354084.3656
whole_company_economic_shares: 199591809.2522
remaining_holder_fraction: 0.938686237013
old_holder_terminal_equity_market_value_oku: 32.2961242507
old_holder_terminal_book_equity_oku: 51.5110874338
mcap_oku_residual: -3.26E-10
tender_fully_exited: いいえ
historical_full_fy_2036_12_31_not_used: はい
方法: Terminal company value from 2036-11-06 trailing net + equity + intrinsic P/B, times old cohort H/S. Completed tender H=0 and mcap_oku=0.

share_count_reconciliation

内容を開く

opening_company_shares

206497000

opening_original_cohort_shares

206497000

shares_issued_for_sbc_replayed

12939548.9856

shares_issued_for_external_cash_replayed

company_shares_retired_via_buybacks_replayed

19844739.7334

cohort_shares_sold_pro_rata_replayed

19142915.6344

cohort_shares_tendered_to_EQT_replayed

ending_company_shares_calculated

199591809.2522

ending_company_shares_reported_in_model

199591809.2522

ending_original_cohort_shares_calculated

187354084.3656

ending_original_cohort_shares_reported_in_model

187354084.3656

ending_cohort_ownership_fraction

0.938686237013

share_count_identity_residual_shares

2.0E-7

cohort_shares_identity_residual_shares

1.0E-7

max_abs_snapshot_residual_shares

5.0E-5

replayed_snapshots

内容を開く

日付: 2026-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 55
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.059782608696
sbc_new_shares: 134362.67253
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 0
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206631362.6725
cohort_shares_replayed: 206497000
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 0

内容を開く

日付: 2027-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 145
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.066575342466
sbc_new_shares: 153564.95856
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 113751.82115
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 113593.43295
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206671175.8099
cohort_shares_replayed: 206383406.567
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 5.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2027-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 236
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.067315068493
sbc_new_shares: 159401.07035
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 118074.86693
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 117819.58758
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206712502.0134
cohort_shares_replayed: 206265586.9795
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2027-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 328
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.068054794521
sbc_new_shares: 165486.72794
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 122582.76143
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 122219.89103
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206755405.9799
cohort_shares_replayed: 206143367.0884
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2027-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 420
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.068054794521
sbc_new_shares: 169937.28275
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 125879.4687
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 125403.76696
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206799463.7939
cohort_shares_replayed: 206017963.3215
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2028-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 511
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.069468306011
sbc_new_shares: 178080.70852
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 165715.76312
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 164947.47819
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206811828.7393
cohort_shares_replayed: 205853015.8433
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2028-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 602
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.069468306011
sbc_new_shares: 182817.21909
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 170123.39643
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 169185.12099
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206824522.562
cohort_shares_replayed: 205683830.7223
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2028-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 694
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.070231693989
sbc_new_shares: 189796.86479
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 176618.41391
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 175483.28081
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206837701.0128
cohort_shares_replayed: 205508347.4415
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 5.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2028-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 786
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.070231693989
sbc_new_shares: 194901.20978
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 181368.34124
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 180033.03676
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206851233.8814
cohort_shares_replayed: 205328314.4047
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2029-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 876
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.071309589041
sbc_new_shares: 203097.35667
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 224727.36561
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 222854.02534
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206829603.8724
cohort_shares_replayed: 205105460.3794
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 5.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2029-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 967
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.072101917808
sbc_new_shares: 210815.90711
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 233267.94701
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 231087.87026
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206807151.8325
cohort_shares_replayed: 204874372.5091
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 5.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2029-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 1059
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.072894246575
sbc_new_shares: 218864.49437
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 242173.71438
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 239656.77673
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206783842.6125
cohort_shares_replayed: 204634715.7324
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2029-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 1151
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.072894246575
sbc_new_shares: 224750.57624
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 248686.66804
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 245834.84597
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206759906.5207
cohort_shares_replayed: 204388880.8864
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2030-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 1241
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.073824657534
sbc_new_shares: 233605.97665
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 296493.89154
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 292763.06272
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206697018.6059
cohort_shares_replayed: 204096117.8237
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -5.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 0

内容を開く

日付: 2030-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 1332
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.074644931507
sbc_new_shares: 242483.98247
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 307761.9016
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 303533.19953
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206631740.6867
cohort_shares_replayed: 203792584.6242
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2030-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 1424
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.075465205479
sbc_new_shares: 251741.60215
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 319511.7195
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 314738.12416
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206563970.5694
cohort_shares_replayed: 203477846.5
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2030-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 1516
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.075465205479
sbc_new_shares: 258511.87197
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 328104.58032
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 322798.62732
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206494377.861
cohort_shares_replayed: 203155047.8727
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2031-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 1606
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.076389041096
sbc_new_shares: 268559.01687
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 381426.62176
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 374770.95641
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206381510.2561
cohort_shares_replayed: 202780276.9163
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2031-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 1697
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.077237808219
sbc_new_shares: 278765.38465
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 395922.4314
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 388489.07962
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206264353.2094
cohort_shares_replayed: 202391787.8367
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2031-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 1789
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.078086575342
sbc_new_shares: 289408.16562
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 411038.06608
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 402755.81771
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206142723.3089
cohort_shares_replayed: 201989032.019
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2031-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 1881
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.078086575342
sbc_new_shares: 297191.42969
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 422092.41144
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 412992.02103
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 206017822.3272
cohort_shares_replayed: 201576039.9979
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2032-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 1972
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.079736885246
sbc_new_shares: 311544.00263
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 485724.98071
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 474535.05955
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 205843641.3491
cohort_shares_replayed: 201101504.9384
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2032-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 2063
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.079736885246
sbc_new_shares: 319830.30985
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 498644.07522
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 486400.78259
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 205664827.5837
cohort_shares_replayed: 200615104.1558
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2032-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 2155
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.080613114754
sbc_new_shares: 332040.87874
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 517681.44487
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 504156.77557
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 205479187.0176
cohort_shares_replayed: 200110947.3802
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2032-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 2247
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.080613114754
sbc_new_shares: 340970.69534
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 531603.82809
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 516857.75996
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 205288553.8848
cohort_shares_replayed: 199594089.6203
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2033-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 2337
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.081838356164
sbc_new_shares: 355257.4524
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 599409.98296
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 581776.2717
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 205044401.3543
cohort_shares_replayed: 199012313.3486
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2033-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 2428
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.082747671233
sbc_new_shares: 368758.72396
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 622190.07358
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 602802.1079
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 204790970.0047
cohort_shares_replayed: 198409511.2407
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2033-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 2520
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.083656986301
sbc_new_shares: 382837.2952
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 645944.21607
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 624648.33054
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 204527863.0838
cohort_shares_replayed: 197784862.9101
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2033-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 2612
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.083656986301
sbc_new_shares: 393133.21674
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 663316.0632
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 640216.85915
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 204257680.2373
cohort_shares_replayed: 197144646.051
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2034-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 2702
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.084698630137
sbc_new_shares: 408496.98676
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 737316.24975
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 710219.70047
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 203928860.9743
cohort_shares_replayed: 196434426.3505
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -0

内容を開く

日付: 2034-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 2793
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.085639726027
sbc_new_shares: 424021.58368
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 765337.35627
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 735681.35013
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 203587545.2017
cohort_shares_replayed: 195698745.0004
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 5.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2034-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 2885
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.086580821918
sbc_new_shares: 440209.99546
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 794556.61481
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 762120.48797
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 203233198.5824
cohort_shares_replayed: 194936624.5124
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 0
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -0

内容を開く

日付: 2034-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 2977
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.086580821918
sbc_new_shares: 452048.88271
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 815925.20315
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 780879.84739
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 202869322.262
cohort_shares_replayed: 194155744.665
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2035-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 3067
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.087657534247
sbc_new_shares: 469707.92991
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 898456.79982
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 857880.30391
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 202440573.392
cohort_shares_replayed: 193297864.3611
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 5.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2035-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 3158
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.088631506849
sbc_new_shares: 487558.79911
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 932601.92235
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 888343.85821
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 201995530.2688
cohort_shares_replayed: 192409520.5029
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -2.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2035-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 3250
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.089605479452
sbc_new_shares: 506172.95206
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 968207.05316
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 919954.01462
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 201533496.1677
cohort_shares_replayed: 191489566.4883
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 0
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -4.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2035-12-31
actual_days_from_base: 3342
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.089605479452
sbc_new_shares: 519785.82903
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 994245.74891
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 942264.76086
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 201059036.2478
cohort_shares_replayed: 190547301.7274
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -0

内容を開く

日付: 2036-03-31
actual_days_from_base: 3433
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.09149726776
sbc_new_shares: 544876.67398
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 1095675.92051
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 1035585.50623
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 200508237.0013
cohort_shares_replayed: 189511716.2212
company_shares_snapshot_residual: -1.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: -3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2036-06-30
actual_days_from_base: 3524
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.09149726776
sbc_new_shares: 559369.05863
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 1124818.21572
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 1060171.92264
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 199942787.8442
cohort_shares_replayed: 188451544.2985
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 0
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2036-09-30
actual_days_from_base: 3616
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.09250273224
sbc_new_shares: 580724.80326
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 1167761.83265
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 1097459.9329
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 199355750.8148
cohort_shares_replayed: 187354084.3656
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5

内容を開く

日付: 2036-11-06
actual_days_from_base: 3653
sbc_credit_accrued_oku: 0.037202185792
sbc_new_shares: 236058.4374
external_new_shares: 0
buyback_company_shares_retired: 0
buyback_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
offer_original_cohort_shares_tendered: 0
company_shares_replayed: 199591809.2522
cohort_shares_replayed: 187354084.3656
company_shares_snapshot_residual: 2.0E-5
cohort_shares_snapshot_residual: 3.0E-5

price_assumptions

Issuer-reported future share prices unavailable. Replay uses original synthetic execution-price assumptions, not historical execution facts.

period_and_forecast_reconciliation

内容を開く

periods_count: 11
full_FY_annual_forecast_rows_count: 10
actual_horizon_days: 3653
first_partial_2026_days: 55
last_partial_2036_days: 311
full_calendar_year_2027_2036_net_oku_reference: 33.0468
2026_Nov06_Dec31_partial_net_oku: 0.567934783
2036_Nov07_Dec31_future_net_excluded_oku: 0.521387978
recalculated_in_horizon_net_oku: 33.093346805
sum_of_11_period_net_oku: 33.093346805
in_horizon_net_reconciliation_residual_oku: -1.42E-10
company_cash_dividends_oku: 8.247797814
company_cash_buybacks_oku: 4.513989071
company_sbc_apic_oku: 3.171882063
company_new_share_cash_oku: 0
company_OCI_and_other_oku: -0.103847174
corporate_net_capital_return_oku: 9.589904822
total_period_equity_identity_residual_oku: -2.0E-9
year_2036_Dec31_after_horizon_payment_excluded: はい

full_year_forecast_not_terminal

annual[2036] is full FY through Dec31 and remains forecast reference. Authoritative 10-year terminal capital and old cohort holding are as of Nov06 from periods_in_horizon and terminal_valuation_reconciliation.

弱気：買付け不成立に研究需要低迷・採算悪化が重なる（確率 5.0%）

買収失敗に加え、診断用試薬や研究設備需要の低迷、デジタルPCR・single-cell技術競争、追加減損や償却が重なり利益率低下。会社は存続するが株主の長期還元余力が弱まる。

確率の根拠

重い下方リスクを示すストレスケースとして5%。

このシナリオの数値・キャッシュフローを開く →

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

45.205

株数

206497000

株価の出所

2026-11-06 Xetra QIA終値45.2050 EUR（Investing.comのXetra履歴）。StockAnalysis/S&Pは四捨五入45.21 EUR。取引所の当日原データでの独立再照合はできていないため一次価格確認はnull。https://www.investing.com/equities/qiagen-historical-data?cid=23528 ; https://stockanalysis.com/quote/etr/QIA/history/

株数の出所

QIAGEN 2026-09-30 US GAAP Quarter Form6-K株式資本変動表：発行206,801千株、treasury304千株、差引206,497千株。千株丸めなので厳密な一株単位と2026-11-06残は未確認。https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015820/000101582026000063/a2026q3quarterlyreport.htm

shares_estimated

はい

shares_exact_2026_11_06

未確認

issued_shares_thousands_2026_09_30

206801

treasury_shares_thousands_2026_09_30

304

effective_shares_thousands_proxy

206497

q3_basic_weighted_average_shares_thousands

206505

q3_diluted_weighted_average_shares_thousands

208057

split_and_repurchase

2026-01合成自己株買い: 20旧株→19新株の併合と資本返還496.7百万USD、約1088.4万株減。現行発行株数と2026-11-06現地株価は併合後で、二重調整しない。

終価

93.346969

fx_reference

ECB 2026-11-06 1EUR=1.1165USD、USD決算をEURに表示する際USD÷1.1165。Q3報告は米ドル機能通貨のUS GAAP財務。

reported_gaap

内容を開く

period

2026-01-01～2026-09-30（9か月、未監査US GAAP）

sales_usd_m

1575.229

gaap_op_usd_m

349.303

net_income_common_usd_m

277.103

sbc_expense_usd_m

26.634

cash_and_short_investments_usd_m

830.132

debt_usd_m

1642.855

net_debt_usd_m

812.723

equity_usd_m

3474.962

noncontrolling_usd_m

cash_operating_usd_m

446.944

capex_pp_e_usd_m

128.395

capex_intangibles_usd_m

3.487

sales_oku_eur

14.108634

op_oku_eur

3.128554

net_oku_eur

2.48189

equity_oku_eur

31.123708

sbc_expense_oku_eur

0.238549

product_group_sales_usd_m

内容を開く

sample: 539.185
diagnostic: 598.09
pcr: 214.074
genomics: 183.281
other: 40.599

now_annualized_9m_sales_oku_eur

18.811512

now_annualized_9m_op_oku_eur

4.171405

now_annualized_9m_net_oku_eur

3.309186

opening_equity_2027_oku

opening_equity_note

2026年9月末US GAAP全株主資本31.123708億EUR＋2026年Q4の純利益0.95億EUR＋SBC非現金資本振替0.10億EUR−OCI等0.173708億EUR＝2026年末モデル32.00億EUR。通期末未確定。

original_effective_shares_as_of_2026_11_06_estimate

206497000

original_holders_cohort_shares_baseline

206497000

starting_company_share_count_proxy

206497000

reported_equity_2026_09_30_oku_eur

31.123708016

pre_valuation_interpolation_2026_09_30_to_2026_11_06

内容を開く

状態: analyst_interpolation_not_company_report
days: 37
q4_total_days: 92
q4_net_profit_forecast_oku: 0.95
q4_sbc_apic_credit_forecast_oku: 0.1
q4_oci_and_other_forecast_oku: -0.173708
net_profit_recognized_to_valuation_oku: 0.382065217
sbc_apic_credit_recognized_to_valuation_oku: 0.040217391
oci_recognized_to_valuation_oku: -0.069860826
valuation_date_equity_oku: 31.476129799
shares_note: Baseline holder and company share count both remain at the most recent 2026-09-30 estimated 206.497m shares. No shares are added before 2026-11-06 because pre-valuation distributions/vestings may already be embedded in the proxy.

終価の基準日

2036-11-06

terminal_actual_days

3653

terminal_time_actual_days_over_365_25

10.0013689254

opening_equity_2027_note_corrected

2026-12-31 equity forecast 32.0 EUR oku remains prior model assumption, but exact holding return period starts at 2026-11-06 with interpolated equity. The 2026-11-06 -> 2026-12-31 period is modeled explicitly.

検証上の留意点

checks

内容を開く

1: bull: 期間2026-11-06〜2036-11-06（2026部分55日＋2027〜2035年＋2036部分311日）。期間利益58.078248717億、会社純資本還元-3.171882063億、OCI-0.103847174億、会社期末資本92.622413404億。期首31.476129799＋利益58.078248717＋OCI-0.103847174−会社純還元-3.171882063＝期末。旧株主受取cash=96.021105000億（会社純還元とは異なる）、旧株主H=0.0000株、全社S=213513662.0114株、持分H/S=0.0000000000、終点mcap=0.000000000億。サイトt=10主PV=92.006807434億/IRR=0.0586519775、実日数参考PV=92.006807434億/IRR=0.0586519775。資本・株数・現金イベント・終価はそれぞれ独立集計して一致。
2: mild_bull: 期間2026-11-06〜2036-11-06（2026部分55日＋2027〜2035年＋2036部分311日）。期間利益50.647210739億、会社純資本還元-3.171882063億、OCI-0.103847174億、会社期末資本85.191375426億。期首31.476129799＋利益50.647210739＋OCI-0.103847174−会社純還元-3.171882063＝期末。旧株主受取cash=96.021105000億（会社純還元とは異なる）、旧株主H=0.0000株、全社S=213513662.0114株、持分H/S=0.0000000000、終点mcap=0.000000000億。サイトt=10主PV=90.031169144億/IRR=0.0385118847、実日数参考PV=90.031169144億/IRR=0.0385118847。資本・株数・現金イベント・終価はそれぞれ独立集計して一致。
3: base: 期間2026-11-06〜2036-11-06（2026部分55日＋2027〜2035年＋2036部分311日）。期間利益43.101103635億、会社純資本還元-2.300075104億、OCI-0.103847174億、会社期末資本76.773461363億。期首31.476129799＋利益43.101103635＋OCI-0.103847174−会社純還元-2.300075104＝期末。旧株主受取cash=96.890371368億（会社純還元とは異なる）、旧株主H=0.0000株、全社S=213513662.0114株、持分H/S=0.0000000000、終点mcap=0.000000000億。サイトt=10主PV=85.196669221億/IRR=0.0252758139、実日数参考PV=85.196669221億/IRR=0.0252758139。資本・株数・現金イベント・終価はそれぞれ独立集計して一致。
4: mild_bear: 期間2026-11-06〜2036-11-06（2026部分55日＋2027〜2035年＋2036部分311日）。期間利益33.093346805億、会社純資本還元9.589904822億、OCI-0.103847174億、会社期末資本54.875724606億。期首31.476129799＋利益33.093346805＋OCI-0.103847174−会社純還元9.589904822＝期末。旧株主受取cash=12.396091965億（会社純還元とは異なる）、旧株主H=187354084.3656株、全社S=199591809.2522株、持分H/S=0.9386862370、終点mcap=32.296124251億。サイトt=10主PV=21.414380952億/IRR=-0.0783691735、実日数参考PV=21.412771661億/IRR=-0.0783604203。資本・株数・現金イベント・終価はそれぞれ独立集計して一致。
5: bear: 期間2026-11-06〜2036-11-06（2026部分55日＋2027〜2035年＋2036部分311日）。期間利益22.472010466億、会社純資本還元-0.847291899億、OCI-0.103847174億、会社期末資本54.691584989億。期首31.476129799＋利益22.472010466＋OCI-0.103847174−会社純還元-0.847291899＝期末。旧株主受取cash=3.530085402億（会社純還元とは異なる）、旧株主H=206497000.0000株、全社S=239511363.4096株、持分H/S=0.8621595112、終点mcap=11.778003316億。サイトt=10主PV=7.474138106億/IRR=-0.1779967370、実日数参考PV=7.473551218億/IRR=-0.1779761199。資本・株数・現金イベント・終価はそれぞれ独立集計して一致。
6: 一次資料の会計基準はUS GAAP（2026年9月30日終了期間）、株価の市場価格は45.205EUR（Xetra終値は二次資料による照合、取引所一次証跡は未取得）、基準日の経済株数206,497,000株は2026-09-30の発行206,801千株−自己株304千株をproxyとして使用。2026年1月の20対19資本返還は既に反映され再控除しない。
7: 2026年9カ月のUS GAAP売上1,575.229百万USD、営業利益349.303百万USD、純利益277.103百万USD、SBC費用26.634百万USD。製品5群の売上合計1,575.229百万USDで一致。SBCは営業費用のまま、現金買戻しやAPICによる資本変動とは別管理する。2026年9月末持分3,474.962百万USDを2026-11-06のEUR/USD1.1165で換算したモデル値を起点とする。
8: 2026年9月30日→11月6日37日の補間は既存モデル仮定。評価期間は2026年11月6日→2036年11月6日の3653日で、2026年11月7日〜12月31日の55日を最初の部分期間とする。2036年1月1日〜11月6日は311日、2036年11月7日〜12月31日の55日は期間外。2036-12-31に仮定する配当・買戻し・新株払込は期間内還元には加えない。
9: 会社資本ブリッジはE_end=E_start+GAAP利益+SBC APIC+OCI+外部払込−会社配当−会社買戻し。会社純資本還元=会社配当+会社買戻し−SBC APIC−外部払込。OCIは会社純資本還元とは別なので、E_start+GAAP利益−会社純還元だけでは全枝で2026-11-06→12-31のモデルOCI約−0.103847億EURの差が出る。このOCIも明示して残差ゼロ。
10: 破談枝の2036-11-06終価：その日までの会社資本Eと2035年末最後55日＋2036年初311日の予想US GAAP利益を使い、理論P/B=max(0,(trailing ROE−g)/(k−g))を導出。会社全体価値に基準日旧株主の残存株数H/会社株数Sを掛ける。旧FY2036-12-31の終価、資本、2036年12月期第4四半期還元を使用しない。成立枝はH=0、旧株主終価=0。
11: EQT成立は2026-11-06時点で未確定。46.50EUR/株を2027-05-06、2027-08-06、2028-05-06の仮定決済日に旧株主へ支払う。遅延2028成立の0.47USD/株条件付き配当は会社選択・2027-10-15支払を仮定したもので確定実績ではない。買付対価から控除しない。決済現金は会社純還元ではなく買い手が旧株主に支払う。
12: 全社株数Sは2026-11-06の206,497,000株＋SBCによる発行株＋外部資金調達新株−会社買戻し退蔵株。旧株主群Hは206,497,000株−旧株主が買戻しへ応じた株数−買付けに応じた株数。買戻し旧株主売却額はcashflowに記録し、その株を終価のHに含めない。独立再生した全株数スナップショットと最終H/Sは丸め誤差内で一致。
13: payout_oku＝timed_cashflows中の基準日旧株主向け現金受取額合計。mcap_oku＝2036-11-06の基準日旧株主が残す持分価値。両者は別々にPV計算、mcapをpayoutへ加算しない。年度別イベントも2027〜2036年10行および2026/2036部分期間を保持。
14: サイト主値の割引ルールは2036-11-06の終価だけ(1+k)^10を使用。実際の経過3653日/365.25=10.0013689253949年とは0.0013689253949年異なる。timed_cashflowsのすべての現金イベントは実日数/365.25で割り引き、終価の期日を変更したわけではない。
15: 参考値の割引ルールはcash eventsも終価も実日数/365.25。両方式の唯一の差は終価の割引指数10固定対10.0013689253949。旧5年目一括還元割引はどちらにも使用していない。
16: 確率合計=1.0000000000、期待旧株主現金受取=79.026655338億EUR、期待旧株主終価=5.433318803億EUR。主PV=74.940245122億EUR（イベントPV72.645152542＋終価PV2.295092580）、参考PV=74.939974384億EUR（イベントPV同額＋終価PV2.294821842）。
17: 主値1株36.291202837EUR、参考値1株36.291071727EUR。株価比主乖離-0.197186089220、参考乖離-0.197188989560。確率加重CF合算IRRは主-0.054866403942、参考-0.054862637350で、各シナリオIRRの単純期待値ではない。両IRRのNPV残差はゼロ。
18: 非合併ケースについて旧holder_cash=会社net_payoutとみなす旧記述は誤り。会社配当・買戻しのうち旧holder H/Sに帰属する実受領分だけがholder cashであり、外部増資・SBCによる持分希薄化と新しい株式数は別モデル化している。会社net_payoutにはSBC APICと外部払込が反映されるが直接holder現金ではない。
19: 2027成立後の年次予測は会社全体の分析上の参考軌道であり、旧株主の残存利益として帰属しない。買付資金に起因する買収後の借入・資本変更は未確定であり、合併成立の確定財務としては扱わない。

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field: 2026-11-06当日時点の発行済普通株数・自己株数の正確な一株単位
値: 未確認
理由: 2026-09-30のUS GAAP財務は千株丸め。11月6日付の厳密な残株確証なし。

field: 2026-11-06 Xetra当日終値の取引所一次証跡
値: 未確認
理由: Xetra二次価格履歴は45.2050EURと一致するが、取引所の一次日次ファイルは照合できなかった。

field: EQT買付けの確定成立日・実際の受諾比率・当局認可
値: 未確認
理由: 2026-11-06時点で買付け手続き未完了。2027年半ばは予想。

field: 2027年の条件付き0.47USD/株配当の実施の有無
値: 未確認
理由: 発表時点では規制遅延時の会社選択権であり確定配当ではない。

field: 2027-2036年の製品群別実物販売量・単価、US GAAP営業利益
値: 未確認
理由: QIAGENは5製品群の売上を開示するが横断的な数量・単価・営業利益分解は未開示。指数代理モデルにとどめる。

field: 公開買付け成立後の会社の実際の新しい資本構成・買収金融負債・SBC制度
値: 未確認
理由: EQTによる買付け後の資本再構成は確定開示なし。成立後の10年事業数値は現在所有者向けの実在予測ではない。

field: 2036年の名目EUR/USD・永久成長率・実現ROE・財務レバレッジ
値: 未確認
理由: 全てシナリオ仮定。2026年報告資料から確定できない。

field: 2026年11月6日・2036年11月6日の厳密な保有株数とSBC株式交付数
値: 未確認
理由: 2026-09-30株数を起点とした推計。将来SBC相当金額を仮定した株価で株数へ変換しており、将来実際の交付株数・買戻し約定価額は未確定。

field: 2027年/2028年のEQT買付け最終決済日
値: 未確認
理由: 公表時点は2027年半ばを見込むのみ。2027-05-06、2027-08-06、2028-05-06はシナリオ上の仮定日。

field: 遅延時中間配当の2027-10-15支払
値: 未確認
理由: 契約上は規制承認待ちが10カ月超の場合に会社が最大0.47USD/株を選択できるだけで、配当決議・金額・日付は未確定。

field: 2036年11月6日の残存価値と年次四半期配当日
値: 未確認
理由: 利益は日割りモデル補間であり、将来配当/買戻しの四半期末日付も分析仮定。2036年11月7日以降の現金は期間外とした。

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