CVC Capital Partners plc

分析の要約

運用資産に基づく手数料、成功報酬の変動、投資持分、借入、買収に伴う希薄化を５ケースで評価します。株数は９月末の代理値、株価は二次資料で照合。未収成功報酬の回収時期と追加報酬・税の実態は不明であり、費用を過大に見積もる可能性があります。2026年11月時点の財務は推計です。

要約の補足

buffett_moat

GP/LPネットワーク、世界30拠点の人材、長年の運用実績、複数戦略・リレーションシップに持続優位。LP資金の解約不能期間が手数料の可視性を確保する一方、次号ファンド募集・実現益・キーパーソンに依存し永久独占ではない。

management_and_alignment

Rob LucasからTodd SisitskyとPeter Rutlandへ2028年Q1までに共同CEO移行予定。事業買収で米クレジットに参入するがMarathon最大56m相当の交換株で旧株主希薄化、既存CVC DIF39%の将来新株も別枠。買戻し実績と将来株式希薄化を両建てで精査。

owner_earnings

2026 H1連結CFO €241mは親会社帰属利益€357mと等しくない。IFRS投資評価益と発生carryを全部現金視せず、cash carry, GP出資、設備維持、新規ファンド・配分費用、NCI、SBCを分離したcash bridgeに置き換える。2028年以降会社負担SIF市場購入額=当期SBC費用と置き、キャッシュから支出。2037年持続FCFも非現金加算と株数補填費用を相殺。

reliability

全55行と日時CFは予測モデル内部の算術恒等式であり2026年11月現在の会社決算として確定していない。NCI留保現金は終価から除外、2028年以降SIF買付を会社負担の仮定で計上。2026Q3は活動報告のみ、買収IFRS3配分・2026-11-06株数・SIF保有株数は欠落。

margin_of_safety

期待価値と€14.46を比べ割引率11%に対する株主還元能力で判定。Fund LPの23% Gross IRRは上場CVC株主IRRではない。

結論の補足

名称

強いファンド募集網と継続手数料。ただし成功報酬の現金化・子会社持分交換による希薄化・買収対価が安全余裕を侵食

valuation_call

not_sufficient_margin_of_safety_at_spot_price

spot_eur_per_share

14.46

expected_intrinsic_value_eur_per_initial_share

9.974263784

expected_present_value_old_cohort_oku

103.988429885

expected_value_to_price

0.689783111

expected_margin_of_safety_vs_price

-0.310216889

expected_cashflow_money_weighted_IRR

0.059949760562

expected_case_IRRs_weighted_average_not_used

0.043057818355

事業

プライベートエクイティ、信用、セカンダリー、インフラの運用とファンド組成を行い、運用報酬や投資成果に応じた報酬を得ます。

競争力・事業の質

投資家との長期関係や運用実績は強みですが、資金調達と投資成果、運用人材、投資価値の変動に左右されます。

業界と環境

企業買収・信用市場と金利、ファンド償還や資金募集の周期の影響を受けます。

財務・資本配分

買収対価の現金・子会社持分、株式報酬、非支配持分、未収報酬と借入を区別して株主の持分を評価します。

評価の前提と確認

運用手数料と成功報酬を別々に予測し、既存の未収報酬と将来の新規報酬が重ならないよう計算します。

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.00%

carry_risk_discount_rate

0.16

k_policy

Nominal EUR 11% judgmental equity capital cost with business-model cyclicality, valuation and acquisition risk; same k for 5 scenarios, extra 5pp for risky carry franchise. Not inferred from market PE.

terminal_growth_policy

scenario-specific long-term cash growth strictly below k; market valuation multiples not used

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

単位の説明

all_company_and_old_cohort_money

億EUR = EUR 100,000,000

listed_ordinary_price

EUR/share

株数

ordinary shares, sometimes fractional in theoretical pro-rata tenders

fee_paying_AUM

billion EUR

growth_probability_discount

decimal fractions

cashflow_timing

actual days elapsed / 365.25 for both dated and terminal 2036-11-06; T=3653/365.25

2026_partial_days

55

2036_partial_days

311

事業の詳細

fee_model

契約上のファンド規模・投資残高に応じた管理報酬 + 追随手数料。基礎にはFPAUMと実効報酬率、戦略別ミックスを使用。

performance_model

IFRS carryは会社自身の契約上の取得権利であり、グループ外LP II Holdings等のother-party carryはIFRS売上から既に除外（2025年報note3）。別途会社人件費が連動する可能性を保守的にシナリオ仮定し、税・費用は発生期に現金支払済みと仮定（実際の支払時期不明）。未収残は契約資産と区別。

investment_income_model

GP/共同投資のFVTPL評価額は現金配当ではない。親会社に帰属する評価益はNAVに蓄積し終価NAVのみ計上、同じ評価益をcarried interest DCFにも加算しない。

subco_model

Marathon SubCo units are economically outstanding since July 2026 but not confirmed converted to AMS ordinary. Forecast conversion dates hypothetical and units are NCI until converted.

consolidation

IFRS revenue includes fund-related investment and NCI, and 2026 H1 NCI profit €53m. Parent profit after SBC only used for net_sum.

競争力の詳細

business_understandability

0.7

competitive_moat

0.75

management_capital_allocation

0.55

reported_earnings_reliability

0.45

leverage_and_balance_sheet

0.48

owner_cash_conversion

0.55

scores_status

subjective_0_to_1_valuation_analyst_not_company_fact

main_operating_risks

内容を開く

1

fundraising/recession cycle

2

carry recognition vs distribution

3

FX and interest rates

4

valuation of level-3 fund investments

5

Marathon integration and earnout

6

employee compensation and SIF

7

future ordinary-equivalent SubCo/DIF share issues

8

key people and governing partner incentives

業界の詳細

classification

global alternative asset manager

moat_drivers

内容を開く

1

long locked-up institutional mandates

2

proprietary origination network

3

distribution and fundraising access

4

multi-strategy scale

5

historic fund performance reputation

disruption

内容を開く

1

fee compression from competition

2

private market NAV markdowns

3

LP denominator effect

4

credit default cycle

5

long exits before carry cash realization

LP_gross_IRR_not_CVC_equity_IRR

はい

財務・資本配分の詳細

asof_market_value_oku

150.755256596

June_2026_IFRS_net_debt_oku

11.99

June_2026_pro_forma_owner_adjusted_net_debt_oku

15.88

June_2026_fund_NCI_equity_oku

6.67

June_2026_forward_dif_liability_oku

4.2

2026_ytd_program_max_oku

3.5

2026H1_repurchased_oku

1.94

2026H1_repurchased_shares

16535127

Sep30_additional_cancelled_shares

3881892

July_to_Sep_cash_cost_exact

未確認

July_to_Sep_cash_cost_null_reason

AFM supplies voting shares, not actual aggregate repurchase cash. Individual issuer weekly PDFs available but not independently summed; no post-cut buyback included in t0.

future_buybacks_2027_within_old_program_assumption

assumed max 1.06oku vs 350m programme after approximation of Sept spending, not factual remaining

sbc_H1_IFRS_charge_and_equity_credit_oku

0.13

sbc_treated_in_earnings_expense

はい

2026H1_company_reported_one_off_SIF_delivery_no_dilution

はい

2026H1_SIF_on_account_shares_book_value_oku

0.26

SIF_2028on_company_funded_replenishment_cash_assumed_equal_SBC_charge

はい

SIF_2027_replenishment_held_stock_assumption

はい

employee_SIF_holding_shares_asof

未確認

employee_SIF_holding_unknown_reason

€26m group-on-account SIF stock value June 2026 verified, not exact beneficial share count as at Nov6

marathon_cash_paid_Jul_2026_usd_m

418

marathon_cash_paid_asof_valuation_already_closed

はい

marathon_100pct_operating_acquisition_closed_on

2026-07-01

marathon_100pct_control_does_not_mean_100pct_parent_economic_ownership_while_SubCo_units_outstanding

はい

marathon_ordinary_exchange_subject_to_lockup_according_to_original_announcement

はい

marathon_initial_subco_nonadjustable_component_reference_not_guaranteed_floor_shares

34000000

marathon_initial_subco_performance_adjustable_shares_max

11000000

marathon_new_base_subco_exchangeable_shares_max

45000000

marathon_earnout_additional_subco_exchangeable_shares_max

11000000

marathon_earnout_cash_usd_m_max

200

marathon_subco_ordinary_exchange_date_asof

未確認

marathon_exchange_null_reason

issue by wholly owned subsidiary does not mean issued Amsterdam ordinary shares until exchange. Timing and quantity not disclosed as fixed.

dif_remaining_interest_percent

0.39

dif_future_share_settlement_years

1

2027

2

2029

dif_annualized_share_count_Jun2026_proxy

33045000

employee_share_grant_is_never_direct_cash_receipt

はい

pro_rata_sale_into_company_funded_SIF_counts_as_actual_oldholder_market_cash

はい

terminal_NCI_scope

Fund NCI-owned NAV and separately tracked NCI-retained cash excluded from terminal owner valuation; Marathon SubCo economics shifted to new shares after conversion, not double-accreted.

SIF_cash_purchase_seller_assumption

2028 onward company-funded SIF market acquisitions assumed to have seller mix pro rata to existing issued shares, including original cohort; old-cohort actual cash receipts booked, shares sold leave cohort, issuer shares not cancelled. External-only sales sensitivity is conditional on unknown lockup adjusted float and not verified as company conduct.

SIF_cash_purchase_timing_assumption

2027 existing group-account SIF stock funds awards; June 2028 onward replenishment cost equals annual SBC expense by company cash, no net new issuer ordinary issue. Annual SIF market price and option strike economics not confirmed.

評価根拠の詳細

independent_of_market_per_for_terminal

はい

spot_used_only_initial_cost_and_future_buyback_execution_price_scenario

はい

2025_statutory_non_cash_DIF_gain_oku

3.3438

2025_profit_without_that_gain_before_tax_rough_oku

8.48726

2025_reported_profit_not_uncritically_capitalized

はい

2026H1_parent_IFRS_oku

3.57

2026H1_adjusted_PAT_oku

4.34

2026H1_adjusted_PAT_not_parent_IFRS

はい

2026Q3_activity_not_IFRS_PNL

はい

Marathon_FPAUM_not_double_added

はい

old_five_year_payout_used_in_10yr

いいえ

cashflows_exclude_terminal_value

はい

terminal_discount_is_elapsed_days_over_365_25

はい

carry_corporate_entitlement_is_not_other_party_partner_carry

はい

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

14.46

株数

1042567473

時価総額（億）

150.755256596

initial_cohort_investment_oku

150.755256596

last_verified_ifrs_financial_reporting_date

2026-06-30

latest_operating_report_date

2026-09-30

asof_2026_11_06_balance_sheet_status

unverified_proxy_not_reported_company_financials

asof_financial_proxy_oku

内容を開く

parent_equity

16

NCI_equity_after_marathon_subco_placeholder

12.67

adjusted_owner_accessible_cash

6.15

NCI_restricted_cash_initial_placeholder

0

consolidated_gross_borrowings

22.33

adjusted_owner_GP_investment_NAV

10.47

NCI_owned_GP_NAV

7.78

DIF_future_equity_forward_liability

4.2

owner_carried_interest_receivable_proxy

2.4

reported_ifrs

内容を開く

2025_12_31

内容を開く

状態

audited_company_2025_fy_report

ifrs_management_fees_oku

14.49544

ifrs_fee_related_performance_revenue_oku

0.14377

ifrs_carried_interest_oku

2.53243

ifrs_investment_income_oku

1.34249

ifrs_total_revenue_oku

18.53447

ifrs_forward_liability_non_cash_fv_gain_oku

3.3438

ifrs_parent_net_profit_oku

11.83106

ifrs_noncontrolling_net_profit_oku

0.39176

ifrs_consolidated_net_profit_oku

12.22282

adjusted_mfe_oku

8.35

adjusted_pre_oku

2.54

adjusted_pat_oku

8.73

ordinary_shares

1062984492

自己株式数

0

2026_06_30

内容を開く

状態

published_unaudited_IAS34_as_issued_2026_07_29

management_fees_oku

7.73

fee_related_performance_revenue_oku

0.04

total_fee_revenue_oku

7.77

carried_interest_oku

0.96

investment_income_oku

1.24

other_income_oku

0.02

売上高

9.99

personnel_expenses_oku

3.12

general_and_administrative_expenses_oku

1.25

forward_liability_gain_non_cash_oku

0.23

EBITDA_oku

5.85

depreciation_amortization_oku

0.89

営業利益（億）

4.96

net_financing_expense_oku

0.19

profit_before_tax_oku

4.77

tax_expense_oku

0.67

consolidated_net_income_oku

4.1

nci_profit_oku

0.53

parent_ifrs_profit_after_sbc_oku

3.57

total_parent_equity_oku

15.78

非支配持分資本（億）

6.67

cash_ifrs_oku

10.34

gross_borrowings_oku

22.33

forward_liability_dif_oku

4.2

investments_ifrs_oku

18.25

investments_adjusted_owner_oku

10.47

investments_nci_excluded_from_adjusted_oku

7.78

cash_adjusted_marathon_as_if_paid_oku

6.45

carried_interest_receivable_oku

3.29

cfo_oku

2.41

carry_cash_received_oku

0.8

ppe_capex_paid_oku

0.05

investments_purchased_oku

2.9

investments_sold_oku

2.59

net_capital_share_buyback_oku

1.94

shares_bought_and_cancelled

16535127

dividends_paid_to_parent_oku

2.5

nci_dividends_paid_oku

0.44

nci_contributions_received_oku

0.26

noncash_sbc_equity_credit_oku

0.13

adjusted_fre_oku

4.42

adjusted_pre_oku

1.1

adjusted_PAT_oku

4.34

weighted_avg_basic_shares

1054447000

adjusted_eps_denominator_incl_future_dif_and_ltip

1092255609

diluted_dif_forward_shares_proxy

33045000

2026_09_30

内容を開く

状態

company_q3_activity_and_regulator_shares_not_financial_accounts

fpaum_billion_eur

176.6

fpaum_2025_09_billion_eur

142.1

fpaum_from_marathon_billion_eur

18.4

fpaum_organic_yoy_growth

0.11

ordinary_voting_shares_regulator_dated

1042567473

share_count_authority

AFM issuance register Sept30 transaction entry; live webpage updated after valuation date; proxy for Nov6

q3_ifrs_profits

未確認

q3_ifrs_profit_null_reason

29 Oct Q3 Activity Update is not IAS34 IFRS quarterly accounts

2026_11_06

内容を開く

price_eur

14.46

株価の出所

FT historical Amsterdam Nov6 16:35 GMT, secondary exchange close

ordinary_shares_asof_exact

未確認

ordinary_shares_proxy_sep30

1042567473

market_cap_oku_proxy

150.755256596

company_issued_shares_oct_nov_unknown

はい

FY2026_first_partial_projection_method

2026-11-07..12-31=55/365 of forecast FULL 2026 run-rate. H1 confirmed historical income not repeated in net_sum; source IFRS statements separate.

price_details

内容を開く

price_eur

14.46

株価基準日

2026-11-06

venue

Euronext Amsterdam ordinary closing price as replicated by FT; exchange official day file not obtained

状態

2026-11-06_secondary_market_price_verified

source_id

closing_price

shares_details

内容を開く

reported_2025_12_31_issued

1062984492

reported_first_half_2026_cancelled

16535127

derived_2026_06_30_issued

1046449365

AFM_regulator_2026_09_30_issued

1042567473

sep30_additional_cancelled_since_jun30

3881892

ordinary_issued_asof_2026_11_06_exact

未確認

asof_exact_reason

No primary share-count record for Nov6; Sep30 AFM dated register as proxy. Regulator webpage last-updated after Nov6; underlying filing release timestamp unverified.

estimated_effective_ordinary_shares_for_valuation

1042567473

trust_treasury_excluded_asof_exact

未確認

source_id

regulator_share_count

valuation_denominator_status

latest_regulator_dated_proxy_not_exact_asof

株価の出所

FT 2026-11-06 Amsterdam終値14.46 EUR。取引所原票未確認。

株数の出所

2026-09-30規制当局の発行済株1,042,567,473株を代理使用。11/06時点と開示時刻は未確認。

検証上の留意点

model_level

scenario model, not financial reporting for 2026Q3 or Nov6

all_money_oku

はい

days_first

55

days_last

311

days_total

3653

number_scenarios

5

ledger_rows

55

terminal_cashflow_in_timed_events

いいえ

expected_IRR_not_average_case_IRRs

はい

SBC_not_cash_receipt

はい

NCI_not_parent_income

はい

dividends_before_asof_excluded

はい

discounted_value_asof_11pct_under_uncertain_inputs

はい

terminal_date_discount_fraction

10.001368925394

expected_IRR_uses_same_terminal_fraction_as_timed_cashflows

はい

legacy_carry_not_in_future_carry_EV

はい

SIF_company_market_cash_oldholder_receipts_not_employee_stock_award

はい

追加データ・検証記録

分析に使用した資料

• markets.ft.markitdigital.com 2026-11-06
• www.afm.nl 2026-09-30
• www.cvc.com 2026-07-30
• cdn.financialreports.eu 2026-07-30
• www.cvc.com 2026-03-11
• www.cvc.com 2026-03-11
• www.cvc.com 2026-10-29
• www.cvc.com 2026-03-11
• www.cvc.com 2026-01-26
• www.cvc.com 2026-09-18
• www.cvc.com 2026-07-30
• www.cvc.com 2026-10-27