IMCD N.V.

分析の要約

専門化学品の地域別流通網を評価し、買収支出、無形資産の償却、運転資本、設備投資、株式報酬を考慮します。基準日時点の株数は2026年6月の自己株を用いた代理値で、9月末財務の一部と将来の買収・配当・税は推計です。終値は二次資料で照合。将来の業績や収益は確定していません。

要約の補足

assessment

IMCDは理解可能な技術型特殊化学品流通で中程度以上の堀がある。しかし永続的な供給契約ではなく、リスクの本体は運転資本・買収対価・のれん・北米景気。EBITAや会社APM FCFをそのまま普通株主FCFEとは見なさない。

judgement_2026_11_06

単独投資候補としてモートの質に比し買収と負債を要監視。安全余裕は全55期間の現金と残存持分から決定。

data_limitations

Euronext official day-specific price ORIGINAL not confirmed; 2026-11-06 close EUR102.75 used based on independent secondary providers only. 9M is not complete IAS34 balance sheet; Nov6 float and gross debt/cash/equity proxy; Merit price/PPA unknown. Future M&A and amortization ratios are assumptions.

terminal_reinvestment_2037_revision

2036 stub acquisition paid annualized to 2037 in all five scenarios; FY2037 attributable IFRS NI tax bridge adjusted for observed amort-related credit; legacy 2037 acquired PPA 10-year runoff and new M&A 30%-over-10-year finite identifiable amort; owner FCFE and SBC share-neutral cash purchase explicit 2037-2046 plus 2047 perpetual; 55 rows unchanged.

value_conclusion

The previous assumed EUR1.0 oku 2037 base acquisition spend versus 2036 EUR2.523 oku annualized cannot be assumed sustainable without an organic/retention investment story. Revised selected IRR is a cautious MODEL assumption, not an objectively observed fair value.

結論の補足

holder_expected_IRR

0.0458194173

fair_value_per_share_eur

68.6644846

entry_price_eur

102.75

price_gap

-0.3317325

owner_outlook

terminal_reinvestment_high_sensitivity; no_proven_margin_of_safety

valuation_quality

company 2025 and H1/9M 2026 evidence; future MA, PPA and tax shield proxy unverified; 2037+ explicit cashflow /2047 terminal DCF

safety_conclusion

2026-11-06 quoted EUR102.75 versus uncertainty-bounded owner equity: use real 2036 MA rate rather than unsupported 2037 cut; do not treat amort as permanent income; tax credits are a proxy not cash tax certainty.

事業

専門化学品・原料をメーカーと顧客の間で流通・技術支援する事業。地域分散と供給先・顧客との関係が競争力の源泉です。

競争力・事業の質

技術支援と調達網に強みがある一方、買収の価格・統合、顧客需要、運転資本と借入が重要です。

業界と環境

化学・食品・医薬品などの産業需要、供給元の販売方針、為替動向の影響を受けます。

財務・資本配分

成長維持に要する買収・運転資本・設備投資と株式報酬を、株主への現金還元と区別して評価します。

評価の前提と確認

直近の利益や市場PERをそのまま価値とせず、再投資後の将来キャッシュフローと買収支出の感応度を検討します。

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

9.50%

k_type

common_equity_required_return_assumption

terminal_method

2037-2046_explicit_EQUITY_owner_FCFE_with_PPA_runoff_then_2047_Gordon_terminal_and_SBC_share_neutral_hedge

terminal_year_discount_exponent

10.001368925394

holder_cashflow_year_basis

ACT/365.25

calendar_anniversary_ending

はい

end_actual_days

3653

end_ACT36525_year

10.001368925394

no_halfway_year5_lump_used_for_timed_cashflows

はい

terminal_is_calendar_10_year_anniversary_but_ACT_365_25_exponent

はい

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

金額の単位

oku_EUR

事業の詳細

owner_understanding

製造ではなく特殊化学品・食品・化粧品・医薬関連原料の技術営業・配合支援・規制対応・在庫小口配送を提供する流通/処方プラットフォーム

supply_relationships

多くの長期的かつ相互排他的な供給者契約。ただし契約再交渉や系列変更のリスク

customer_relation

多業種・地域の分散した顧客基盤。価格転嫁余地は数量・用途・競合次第

industrial_cyclicality

建設・自動車・エネルギー向けは循環的。高付加価値ライフサイエンス部門と区別

asset_light_qualification

物的設備投資は小さいが、在庫・債権運転資金と買収対価は実際の投資であり、すべてのEBITAをオーナー利益とはみなさない

競争力の詳細

競争優位性

medium_to_strong_but_not_irreplaceable

moat_rationale

1

分散した仕入先・需要家を結ぶ技術営業、配合ラボ、現地規制、長期取引関係

2

世界共通ITと技術サポートの規模・紹介密度が新規参入コストを高める

3

価格と数量、顧客別製品採用で循環・供給者の直販/乗換えリスクを持つ

capital_allocation

買収拡大型。のれん/顧客関係償却を現金コストと混同しない一方、買収を恒常的な成長投資としてFCFEから差し引く

debt_guardrail

2026-09-30 net debt 2.6x operating EBITDA; financial covenant maximum 4.25x H1 report

reported_cash_flow_warning

会社のFCFは利息・税・買収後の株主FCFEではない。会社定義を再構成する必要がある

業界の詳細

drivers

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1

特産化学品の数量/単価/製品ミックス

2

技術サポート/調合の継続性

3

買収倍率とシナジー

4

運転資本効率

5

欧米工業循環とアジア成長

risks

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1

サプライヤーの販売代理契約変更

2

化学品規制と顧客景気

3

のれん減損

4

為替換算差とキャッシュ滞留

5

買収後の資金負担/金利高

財務・資本配分の詳細

dividend_policy

adjusted net income (reported NI + net-of-tax intangible amortisation) 25%-35% target (2025 Annual Report); model pays ~27%-35%

real_2026_paid_dividend

内容を開く

ex_date

2026-05-05

record_date

2026-05-06

payment_date

2026-05-08

eur_per_share

1.81

group_paid_oku

1.06869

treatment

paid_prior_to_asof_excluded_from_new_cohort_cashflows

repurchase

only historical LTI replenishment/treasury, no evidence of large-scale buyback program at cutoff

sbc

NI always after cost SBC; equity-settled noncash SBC reserve credited once; treasury shares delivered with zero cash but ownership dilution; employer purchase of treasury stock is a real financing cashflow; future 2037+ sustainable FCFE deducts SBC-neutral share-repurchase cash

評価根拠の詳細

not_market_per

はい

not_prior_5yr_payout

はい

terminal_on_2036_11_06_not_fy2036_end

はい

use_actual_price_just_as_entry_cost

はい

eps_and_cash_eps_not_interchangeable

はい

not_hypothetical_2026_year_end_realized

はい

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

102.75

price_currency

EUR_per_share

price_source_status

secondary_price_crosscheck_primary_close_unverified

株数

59044962

issued_shares_2025_12_31_actual

59107999

own_shares_2026_06_30_actual

63037

actual_share_count_2026_11_06

未確認

share_denominator_status

proxy_2026_06_30_no_confirmed_share_transactions_Jul-Nov

終価

60.668698455

start_original_cohort_shares

59044962

start_old_cohort_float_fraction

1

excluded_treasury_does_not_own_dividend

はい

price_status_warning

102.75 EUR price is corroborated by stockanalysis.com and MarketScreener AMS IMCD date rows, but original exchange daily tick/official historical price feed could NOT be verified.

株価の出所

StockAnalysis 2026-11-06 102.75 EUR; Euronext日次原票未確認

株数の出所

2025年末発行59,107,999株から2026年6月末自己株63,037株を控除。2026-11-06実株数は未確認の代理値。

price_source_status_original

secondary_AMS_2026_11_06_date_row_two_independent_providers; original_Euronext_daily_price_record_NOT_verified

検証上の留意点

1

日付: 2026-11-07～2026-12-31=55日、FY2027～FY2035=9×通年、2036-01-01～2036-11-06=311/366日、2026-11-06を収益に含めず2036-11-06を含む。

2

11月6日から2036年11月6日は暦日3653日=ACT/365.25 10.0013689年だが、株譜旧来の厳密同日10年終点の割引指数は10とする。日付別現金IRRはACT/365.25。

3

per case net_sum_oku=11期中のSBC費用控除後の親会社NI合計で2036年11/7～12/31や2037年利益を含まない。

4

payout_oku=保有比率に応じた配当現金＋旧株主の比例売却買戻し受取の合計であり、現金受取ゼロの交付/権利落ち/決議は合計に入れない。

5

mcap_oku=2036/11/06に現存する旧株主コホート残存株数に対応する持分価値。会社全体の終価とは別。

6

timed_cashflowsに終価を加えない。全将来ex-date/record-date/employee-share-delivery/AGM/結果公表の再評価用ゼロ額イベントを保持。

7

2026/5の確定配当1.81 EUR/株は権利落ち・支払済で、11/6購入コホートCFではない。2027以降の金額とex-dateは全て未宣言の仮定。

8

最終年度の2027～2036権利落ちが支払日に先行すること、配当権がex-dateに固定されることを株数台帳と日付イベントで照合。

9

2026年9月末の現金と総負債、9M親会社利益の精密値、11月6日実株数は未開示、代理の断定禁止。

10

会社free cash flow APMは税・利払・買収を控除した旧株主自由CFではない。持続再投資を残して2037～2046年の明示的FCFEと2047年以降のGordon末価を算出。

11

維持目的の将来SBC株式補填買付は額面SBC費用と等しくない。2037年以降の想定交付株×将来終価株価を自整合的に割り引いて一度だけ控除。

12

旧株主買戻しCFは比例応札シミュレーションであり単独の株を売らない継続保有者の現実受取とは異なる。会社の自己株買い前提は保証・発表済でない。

13

既公表の買収利益(9M集計)とH1取得代価を将来買収額として重複計上していない。Meritの対価はnull。

14

全5ケース確率=1、55期間の前期末=次期首、PBT/NI/資本/現金/借入/株数のブリッジ残差許容1e-8億EURで実装。

15

終価キャッシュの割引もACT/365.25で統一し、2036-11-06の指数3653/365.25=10.0013689254。日付は暦で厳密に10周年だが数式上は指数10固定にしない。

16

v3の2037買収・条件付支払年額だけを減らす段差を撤回。各2036年311日支出×366/311で2037買収出金を年額接続し、2024/2025実績との差も感応度で保持。

17

2037の1.7793億EUR（中立）無形償却は買収関係の歴史的残高から生じる非現金費用であり永久1.7793億加算とは扱わない。10年間旧PPA線形減衰＋30%新PPA/10年償却の未検証仮定で2037～2047以後の税効果を接続。

18

実際の2025年償却関連税控除0.128億/償却1.015億=12.6108%をIFRS会計税効果の代理率に用い、税率26.5%全額控除と区別。実際の現金税効果は未確認。税額の差はNIとCFで一度だけ処理する。

19

Euronext原票の当日値は再取得できず取引所一次照合完了としない。102.75EURは複数二次サイト日付行による確認。

20

全11期の期間、親会社利益合計、旧株主還元、SBC、配当権利落ち・支払の0額イベントはv3から全件同一。変更は2036終点の将来維持投資とその評価・説明・時間指数に限定。

21

V4 updated all scenario/weighted ACT terminal PV, IRR, price and multiple; other 55-period and dated flows retained bit-for-bit from V3.

追加データ・検証記録

assumptions

内容を開く

source_dividend_policy_cash_payment_timing

2025 AR 25-35% of adjusted NI; models dividend first payment 2027 for FY2026 assumed from forecast, 2026 May actual excluded

2026_run_rate_oku

52.62

pre_cutoff_2026_q4_stub_days

37

first_partial_days

55

last_partial_days

311

year_2036_denominator

366

finance_risk

All scenario interest rates and acquisition cash forecasts are hypothetical; 9M net debt source is actual, split cash/gross debt is proxy

reporting_currency_unit

oku_EUR

all_scenario_parameters

内容を開く

bull

内容を開く

prob

10.00%

region_growth

EMEA

1

0.036

2

0.015

3

0.035

Americas

1

0.028

2

0.016

3

0.032

Asia_Pacific

1

0.052

2

0.018

3

0.042

decline_per_year

0.012

margins

EMEA

1

0.115

2

0.137

Americas

1

0.095

2

0.112

Asia_Pacific

1

0.132

2

0.152

holding_ratio

0.0063

acq_cash_2027

2.7

acq_growth

0.045

capex_ratio

0.0044

nwc_ratio

0.18

tax

0.255

interest

0.039

cash_yield

0.014

impairment

記載なし

dividend_adj_ni_rate

0.35

buy_shares

60000

award_shares

18000

buy_price_growth

0.08

terminal_k

0.078

terminal_g

0.026

terminal_ma

4.0124568792

terminal_maintenance_capex_ratio

0.0048

terminal_nwc_ratio

0.19

terminal_award

18000

q4_growth

0.03

fx_oci_rate

0.0004

説明

全地域で数量回復、APACの技術営業と買収の高収益化が進展。

terminal_ma_original_v3

1.45

terminal_ma_basis

2036 partial 311-day cash from annual_ledger * 366/311; 2037-forward annual acquisition and earn-out total

mild_bull

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prob

20.00%

region_growth

EMEA

1

0.028

2

0.014

3

0.028

Americas

1

0.019

2

0.014

3

0.021

Asia_Pacific

1

0.043

2

0.015

3

0.03

decline_per_year

0.022

margins

EMEA

1

0.115

2

0.125

Americas

1

0.095

2

0.105

Asia_Pacific

1

0.132

2

0.142

holding_ratio

0.0065

acq_cash_2027

2.25

acq_growth

0.035

capex_ratio

0.0045

nwc_ratio

0.18

tax

0.26

interest

0.042

cash_yield

0.014

impairment

記載なし

dividend_adj_ni_rate

0.35

buy_shares

50000

award_shares

16000

buy_price_growth

0.062

terminal_k

0.083

terminal_g

0.023

terminal_ma

3.0665190449

terminal_maintenance_capex_ratio

0.0049

terminal_nwc_ratio

0.19

terminal_award

16000

q4_growth

0.013

fx_oci_rate

0.0002

説明

特産品物流の付加価値と新興国拡大が継続。

terminal_ma_original_v3

1.2

terminal_ma_basis

2036 partial 311-day cash from annual_ledger * 366/311; 2037-forward annual acquisition and earn-out total

base

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prob

45.00%

region_growth

EMEA

1

0.021

2

0.011

3

0.025

Americas

1

0.01

2

0.011

3

0.016

Asia_Pacific

1

0.038

2

0.012

3

0.028

decline_per_year

0.035

margins

EMEA

1

0.115

2

0.119

Americas

1

0.095

2

0.099

Asia_Pacific

1

0.132

2

0.136

holding_ratio

0.0067

acq_cash_2027

1.9

acq_growth

0.032

capex_ratio

0.0045

nwc_ratio

0.18

tax

0.265

interest

0.043

cash_yield

0.013

impairment

記載なし

dividend_adj_ni_rate

0.35

buy_shares

50000

award_shares

15000

buy_price_growth

0.045

terminal_k

0.087

terminal_g

0.02

terminal_ma

2.5227306085

terminal_maintenance_capex_ratio

0.005

terminal_nwc_ratio

0.19

terminal_award

15000

q4_growth

0

fx_oci_rate

0

説明

有機成長と適切な買収により売上拡大。ただし北米・競争と資本コストを保守的に反映。

terminal_ma_original_v3

1

terminal_ma_basis

2036 partial 311-day cash from annual_ledger * 366/311; 2037-forward annual acquisition and earn-out total

mild_bear

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prob

20.00%

region_growth

EMEA

1

0.008

2

0.01

3

0.012

Americas

1

-0.01

2

0.01

3

0.008

Asia_Pacific

1

0.02

2

0.01

3

0.017

decline_per_year

0.05

margins

EMEA

1

0.115

2

0.107

Americas

1

0.095

2

0.083

Asia_Pacific

1

0.132

2

0.117

holding_ratio

0.007

acq_cash_2027

1

acq_growth

0.02

capex_ratio

0.0048

nwc_ratio

0.19

tax

0.27

interest

0.052

cash_yield

0.012

impairment

2030

0.35

dividend_adj_ni_rate

0.31

buy_shares

30000

award_shares

15000

buy_price_growth

0.005

terminal_k

0.102

terminal_g

0.01

terminal_ma

1.1950925686

terminal_maintenance_capex_ratio

0.005

terminal_nwc_ratio

0.19

terminal_award

15000

q4_growth

-0.02

fx_oci_rate

-0.0005

説明

北米低迷と調達コスト、買収収益低下。資金負担を抑制。

terminal_ma_original_v3

0.65

terminal_ma_basis

2036 partial 311-day cash from annual_ledger * 366/311; 2037-forward annual acquisition and earn-out total

bear

内容を開く

prob

5.00%

region_growth

EMEA

1

-0.006

2

0.005

3

0.004

Americas

1

-0.03

2

0.005

3

0

Asia_Pacific

1

0.008

2

0.005

3

0.006

decline_per_year

0.07

margins

EMEA

1

0.115

2

0.093

Americas

1

0.095

2

0.068

Asia_Pacific

1

0.132

2

0.103

holding_ratio

0.008

acq_cash_2027

0.45

acq_growth

0.01

capex_ratio

0.005

nwc_ratio

0.2

tax

0.27

interest

0.064

cash_yield

0.01

impairment

2029

2

2031

0.8

dividend_adj_ni_rate

0.27

buy_shares

15000

award_shares

15000

buy_price_growth

-0.045

terminal_k

0.125

terminal_g

0.005

terminal_ma

0.4921583727

terminal_maintenance_capex_ratio

0.0055

terminal_nwc_ratio

0.2

terminal_award

15000

q4_growth

-0.06

fx_oci_rate

-0.001

説明

低成長、特産品需給悪化、買収のれん減損、金利高。

terminal_ma_original_v3

0.4

terminal_ma_basis

2036 partial 311-day cash from annual_ledger * 366/311; 2037-forward annual acquisition and earn-out total

start_cash_explained

gross_2026_Jun_minus_netdebt_2026_Sep, as-of proxy

terminal_after_interest_fcfe

2037-forward parent P&L after interest/tax; add noncash intangible amort, PPE depreciation and SBC; deduct maintenance+IT, incremental NWC, recurring MA/earnouts, tax-timing reserve. From 2037 to 2046, finite-lived LEGACY acquisition intangibles amort runoff and new acquisition PPA (30% fraction over 10yrs; 1yr timing lag) determine amort and verified 2025 partial tax-credit proxy, not indefinite 1.7793 addback at full notional tax rate. 2047 onward Gordon. All MA is a *replacement plus incremental-growth* total, counted once, returns already inside forecast EBITA growth, never separately double added.

anti_double_counting

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1

2026-05-08 dividend paid before purchase excluded

2

2026 H1 acquisition gross price, acquired cash, deferred at close and prior earnouts bridge to single 2026 H1 cash line; excluded from post-as-of spending

3

future acquisition paid reduces cash/raises borrowing once; goodwill not counted as distributable income

4

stock buybacks only as company financing cash and cohort tender proceeds; no second equity payout netting

5

SBC expense stays in IFRS NI; noncash equity credit added to total equity once; employee delivery is zero-cash ownership dilution

6

terminal share-neutral SBC replacement is deducted once, solved by self-consistent per-share terminal value; past 2027-2036 tendering separate

7

2025 dividend is before cutoff and absent from future CF

8

under IFRS, equity-level OCI separate from net income and from cash

revised_2037_2047_terminal

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label

2026-11-06 baseline backward-compatible 55 periods unchanged; long-run tail rebuilt

new_primary_selection

acquisition_2037_amount=2036_part_year_acq_cash*(366/311), by case; future grow at g

why

No hard evidence that sustainable post-2036 acquisition cash collapses to v3 low nominal amount with unchanged acquired business profitability; 2036 run-rate continuity is a transparent cautious working assumption, not known truth.

finite_legacy_acquired_intangible_amort_runoff_years

10

ppa_fraction_of_acquisition_cash_assumed

0.3

new_ppa_straight_line_useful_life_years

10

new_acquisition_first_amortized_in_subsequent_year

はい

effective_amortization_tax_credit_from_2025_IFRS_disclosure

0.1261083744

alternative_tax_credit_lower_bound

0

alternative_tax_credit_upper_bound

scenario_ifrs_base_tax_rate; sensitivity only, not observed tax cash deduction

2025_reported_amortization_oku

1.015

2025_reported_related_accounting_tax_credit_oku

0.128

2024_tax_credit_ratio_from_annual_report

0.1102941176

tax_credits_not_confirmed_cash_recovery

2025 annual accounting effective credit ratio is used as normalized proxy. Actual tax payment/timing/country mix may differ; existing cash_tax_timing reserve retained.

2037_sales_and_EBITA_growth_projections

FY2036 full year pro-forma * (1+terminal_g). Growth rate aggregates organic changes, prior-cohort acquisition revenue and attrition. Not an independent 2% organic guarantee plus extra acquisition contribution.

operating_rentention_vs_acquisitions

No additional separate attrition cash charge; assumed maintenance acquisitions already replace relationships; low-MA organic-growth haircut sensitivity isolates failure of that substitution.

return_on_acquisition_proxy

For a check only, assumed 8% EBITA/year per euro of PRIOR-YEAR acquisition paid; 2036 FY annualized paid acquisition*8% vs 2037 forecast EBITA change, residual attributed to net organic gains/losses and attrition. Not an incremental EBITA credit in DCF.

forward_year_2037_owner_cf_timing

FY2037 annualized forward proxy taken as t=1 from the 2036-11-06 terminal; 2037 cash dates are not in 2026-2036 timed_cashflows

2037_to_2046_explicit_years

10

2047_gordon_tail_and_SBC_cash_hedge

Tail after 2046 uses 2047 forward owner FCFE, tail growth g, terminal k, same share-neutral cash SBC hedge in all future years. Annual future acquisition paid grows g; no hidden real decline.

acq_cash_2025_oku_real

4.37216

acq_cash_2024_oku_real

3.64942

estimated_future_renewal_and_acquisition_not_a_company_guidance

はい

reassessment_triggers

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next_confirmed_company_results

2027-02-19 FY2026 (calendar date announced by 2026-11-06)

next_confirmed_calendar_AGM

2027-04-29 (calendar only; dividend is NOT declared)

first_unconfirmed_2027_dividend_dates

ex_date

2027-05-04

record_date

2027-05-05

payment_date

2027-05-07

recalculate_when

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1

FY results differ from profit proxy

2

AGM resolves dividend per share

3

ex_date entitlement locks

4

payment cash received

5

SBC treasury shares handed over

6

issuer buyback executed or canceled

7

M&A consideration revised or contingent earnout paid

8

Net Debt covenant/leverage >4.25x

9

earnings release revised

10

noncash 0-event date passes without confirmation

site_revaluation_rule

Do not allow zero-cash future events to disappear from the dated event list. If declaration/ex_date/vesting date passes, refresh before showing the unchanged expected IRR. Once ex-date passes, buyer of shares thereafter cannot receive already ex-right dividend.

date_status_types

1

historical_actual

2

calendar_announced_but_amount_not_confirmed

3

assumed

sensitivity

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no_tender_vs_pro_rata

Present model treats issuer buying treasury shares as cash that old-cohort holders receive pro rata; if old shareholders never tender, tender cash is zero but they retain more shares, increasing terminal ownership; rerun with old shares fixed and same company treasury. Do NOT just drop tender CF and hold terminal fixed.

terminal_rate_base_plus_1pp

Terminal equity denominator rises from (k-g+award/float) to (k+0.01-g+award/float); sensitivity computed separately in verification report

Merit_2026_Q3_consideration_not_brought_forward

Unknown Q3 amount is already reflected in realized 2026/9 Net debt and is not placed again in 2027 forecast acquisition spending.

start_2026_Q3_cash_gross_debt_swap

Starting cash and gross debt are constructed from June gross debt and September net debt; a simultaneous equal change in cash/gross would preserve ND but alter finance interest if gross borrowing pricing differs. Recheck on next full balance sheet.

reinvestment_duration_terminal_v4

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v3_original_actual_day

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

207.7672866861

mild_bull

131.1266623049

base

95.9498660749

mild_bear

47.7939664933

bear

27.0509556288

weighted_old_terminal_oku

101.0908419434

fair_value_eur_per_share

87.57109021

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.075650203562

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

2.98307863

説明

v3 terminal values unchanged; only terminal present-value and IRR time exponent corrected to 3653/365.25.

simple_ma_continuity_full_tax_credit

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

158.9280981441

mild_bull

100.2426929443

base

73.366494368

mild_bear

41.900410915

bear

26.2865357873

weighted_old_terminal_oku

78.6506798412

fair_value_eur_per_share

72.23735372

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.052096081545

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

0.62766643

説明

User-requested mechanical sensitivity: 2036 311-day MA annualized to 366 days each scenario, all other 2037 P&L/SBC/tax kept as v3, simple Gordon unchanged, actual ACT/365.25 outer time exponent.

organic_low_MA_no_attrition_haircut

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

197.3471708404

mild_bull

123.7838149521

base

90.2179452501

mild_bear

44.7292098986

bear

25.3782732058

weighted_old_terminal_oku

95.304311077

fair_value_eur_per_share

83.6170573

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.070027908268

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

2.4208491

説明

v3 low MA but partial tax credit and finite PPA amort runoff; assumes fully organic 2037+ growth compensates any lost acquired-customer relationships. Optimistic, not primary.

organic_low_MA_with_8pct_acq_EBITA_gap

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

161.3021950746

mild_bull

104.5216167736

base

77.759321769

mild_bear

42.2374324136

bear

25.1611317658

weighted_old_terminal_oku

81.7317807292

fair_value_eur_per_share

74.34272127

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.055635950293

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

0.9816533

説明

v3 low MA and sustainable g cut by assumed 8% EBITA return on acquisition-spending shortfall divided by FY2036 normalized EBITA (floor 0.01%); 2037 and beyond lower revenue and EBITA trend. Illustrative causal sensitivity.

primary_2036_acq_runrate

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

149.7590729227

mild_bull

93.6733645791

base

68.1902043833

mild_bear

38.9714892759

bear

24.62986468

weighted_old_terminal_oku

73.4219632698

fair_value_eur_per_share

68.6644846

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.045819417286

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

-0

説明

SELECTED: same scenario 2036 311-day acquisition cash annualized to 366, 2025 observed amort tax credit fraction 12.61%, finite-lived 10yr legacy PPA runoff, new PPA 30% of acquisition cash expensed over 10yrs after 1-year lag, 2047 tail.

ma_2025_cash_nominal

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

143.0789264295

mild_bull

72.6109289758

base

41.4364561117

mild_bear

5.4126632661

bear

0

weighted_old_terminal_oku

48.5590163416

fair_value_eur_per_share

51.67521889

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.00977857587

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

-3.60408414

説明

2025 observed net MA cash EUR437.216m held as 2037 nominal starting acquisition intensity (future grows g), NOT revenue-scaled; stressed bearish scenario unlevered equity DCF negative and floored at zero for limited liability. Other g and taxes as selected.

primary_tax_shield_zero

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

146.4742304674

mild_bull

91.3485566093

base

66.3735441531

mild_bear

38.0377716588

bear

24.1084333992

weighted_old_terminal_oku

71.5982052392

fair_value_eur_per_share

67.41828037

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.043543987586

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

-0.22754297

説明

All else selected, acquired intangible amort tax benefit 0%, worst case of no tax deductibility.

primary_tax_shield_full_statutory

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

153.1164128776

mild_bull

96.1416567907

base

70.1910143518

mild_bear

40.0368756662

bear

25.2248259188

weighted_old_terminal_oku

75.3945455334

fair_value_eur_per_share

70.01238292

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.048229104672

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

0.24096874

説明

All else selected, amort tax benefit scenario statutory rate, aggressive upper sensitivity; unlike reported 2025 ratio 12.61%.

primary_ppa_finite_fraction_15pct

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

148.77955455

mild_bull

93.0379543184

base

67.7299434151

mild_bear

38.8225830581

bear

24.5871116307

weighted_old_terminal_oku

72.9578930486

fair_value_eur_per_share

68.34737769

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.045244832417

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

-0.05745849

説明

All else selected, 15% instead of 30% of acquisition price recognized in identifiable finite amortizable intangibles.

primary_ppa_finite_fraction_50pct

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

151.0650974196

mild_bull

94.52057826

base

68.8038856743

mild_bear

39.1700308995

bear

24.6868687457

weighted_old_terminal_oku

74.0407235646

fair_value_eur_per_share

69.08729382

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.046580930762

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

0.07615135

説明

All else selected, 50% instead of 30% of acquisition price recognized in identifiable finite amortizable intangibles.

primary_terminal_k_plus_1pp

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terminal_old_oku_by_scenario

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bull

125.8226453436

mild_bull

80.4132318957

base

59.4173889443

mild_bear

35.2245173868

bear

23.0583229253

weighted_old_terminal_oku

63.6005555621

fair_value_eur_per_share

61.95335315

expected_IRR_weighted_dated_cashflows

0.032970927586

delta_IRR_pp_vs_v4

-1.28484897

説明

Selected M&A and tax/attrition held fixed; raise k in 2037+ terminal equity model by 1.0% point only, initial 2026-2036 holder discount k stays 9.5%.

finite_PPA_runoff_and_2037_tax_proxy

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2025_related_credit_ratio

0.1261083744

candidate_ratio_range

1

0

2

0.1261083744

3

0.265

new_PPA_fraction

0.3

legacy_runoff_years

10

new_PPA_lifetime_years

10

proven_company_fact

EUR101.5m amort, EUR12.8m related tax credit in FY2025; EUR437.216m acquisitions cash; FY2026 9M organic sales +4%; NOT evidence of future exact PPA duration and tax cash saving.

分析に使用した資料

• www.imcdgroup.com 2026-11-05
• rss.globenewswire.com 2026-11-05
• www.imcdgroup.com 2026-07-29
• www.imcdgroup.com 2026-03-04
• www.imcdgroup.com available_by_2026-11-06
• stockanalysis.com 2026-11-06
• www.investing.com 2026-11-06
• live.euronext.com 2026-11-06 17:35 CET
• www.imcdgroup.com 2026-03-04
• live.euronext.com 2026-02-18