AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

Exor N.V.

EXO · EUR · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

{ "as_of": "2026-11-06", "market_price_eur": 73.35, "entry_cohort_cap_oku": 147.20703921, "reference_NAV_proxy_oku": 343.27135658, "indicative_NAV_per_share_eur": 171.04449719, "probability_weighted_fair_value_per_share_eur": 78.78680795, "expected_IRR": 0.103330206, "required_return": 0.095, "scenario_summary": [ { "case": "strong_bull", "probability": 0.12, "10y_payout_oku": 29.03332908, "2036_terminal_old_cohort_mcap_oku": 786.32510777, "pv_oku": 336.41514993, "irr": 0.194104269117 }, { "case": "mild_bull", "probability": 0.2, "10y_payout_oku": 25.94978686, "2036_terminal_old_cohort_mcap_oku": 474.48413113, "pv_oku": 208.79355421, "irr": 0.136341643073 }, { "case": "base", "probability": 0.4, "10y_payout_oku": 22.98685141, "2036_terminal_old_cohort_mcap_oku": 315.40904784, "pv_oku": 142.86699775, "irr": 0.091495005555 }, { "case": "mild_bear", "probability": 0.2, "10y_payout_oku": 14.26556663, "2036_terminal_old_cohort_mcap_oku": 177.34700317, "pv_oku": 81.31776373, "irr": 0.027959658752 }, { "case": "bear", "probability": 0.08, "10y_payout_oku": 5.34787171, "2036_terminal_old_cohort_mcap_oku": 70.28441458, "pv_oku": 32.2419613, "irr": -0.066578541683 } ], "publication_status": "model_only_reverified_2037_stock_neutralization_and_IFRS_investment_company_display_2026_11_06_cutoff_still_unverified_share_count", "five_year_to_ten_year_correction": "All 2027..2035 inclusive plus 2036 Jan1-Nov6 included; no 2036 Nov7-Dec31 payouts added." }

10年期待年率10.33%

資本コスト9.50%

直近終値73.35 EUR2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

{
"investment_thesis": "Exor is a discounted collection of equity interests rather than a consolidated automotive group; key determinants are Ferrari premium economics, recovery in Stellantis/CNH, disciplined capital deployment, Lingotto and private holdings, debt and buybacks.",
"valuation_policy": "All 2036 investment exit marks projected from individual investees’ post-2036 sustainable owner FCFE and capital charge; interim share buyback execution prices are explicit market assumptions, NOT a terminal NAV discount.",
"revenue_profit_note": "Exor H1 IFRS investment company reports dividend income, FVTPL remeasurements, G&A incl SBC, other, finance income/cost, PBT and taxes; neither operating sales nor operating profit are reported. Standard stockfu sales/EBIT fields are unsupported; see investment_entity_IFRS_display_metric_policy.",
"past_5_year_payout_error": "Prior model undercounted or mislabeled shareholder distributions by treating years 1–5 as all ten years; replaced by ledger from post-Nov6 2026 through Nov6 2036, events with actual ACT/365.25 year fractions and 5 probability paths.",
"incomplete_baseline_facts": [
"No public exact treasury count at November 6 before November 9 update; November 2 report is latest allowable proxy.",
"Exor tender acceptance/individual cash receipt date for Iveco not proven by Iveco 89.42% aggregate initial settlement; opening model uses offer receivable, settles Nov13 as conditional forecast.",
"Private and Lingotto FV marks are June30 2026 old; Oct/Nov marks not audited.",
"Nov6 actual investee stock holdings may change after June; held constant unless confirmed (Philips 2026 H1 in-kind award already included).",
"After-March-2027 buybacks, future dividends, award vesting, tax, prices and all forecast dates are assumptions."
],
"definitions": {
"payout_oku": "Sum of cash dividends and proportional tender/sale cash actually modeled to original Nov6 shareholder cohort, never book P&L or unrealized NAV.",
"mcap_oku": "End-of-period residual equity intrinsic value times remaining original shareholder cohort ownership; not entire Exor market cap.",
"NAV": "Investments at fair value plus cash, less holding-level debt and liabilities; no additive investee operating CF."
},
"conservative_bias": "A separate terminal reserve charges post-2036 stock-neutralizing repurchases at expected market price rather than treating expensed share awards as costless.",
"staleness_and_model_risk": "Large model uncertainty in 2037 owner-FCFE; not a factual company 2036 forecast.",
"sbc_terminal_validation": "Future >2036-11-06 annual neutralization reserve uses first 2037 buyback at intrinsic 2037 year-growth price. 2037+ old holders pro-rata tender, receive buyback and owner-cash-equivalent distributions while H declines and N remains neutral; 10-year infinite/finite tail PV identity verified to the same 2036 old-cohort terminal value. Prior 2026-36 SBC P&L and equity reserve only cancel for net book NAV; no second P&L charge in terminal."
}

Exor はIFRS投資会社であり、投資先の売上・営業利益を連結売上・営業利益として表示しない。投資配当、公正価値評価損益、費用、金融収支からの損益接続は年次台帳に記載。11月6日の株数は10月30日までの報告値を代理使用し、Iveco受渡時期と非上場資産の評価は未確認。予測権利日・資産売却・買戻しなどの確認時期を超えたら期待リターンを保留。終価の株式報酬補填・比例応札と希薄化を同時にモデル化。

事業

accounting: Since investment entity assessment, parent uses IFRS10 investment entity exception for equity investments at FVTPL, including controlled Juventus; only service companies consolidated. Carrying stakes are public prices and private valuations; no group automotive or health product sales are booked as parent revenue.
holdings: Ferrari luxury sport cars / Stellantis mass auto / CNH farm and construction / Philips health tech / Juventus football / Via transit SaaS / Clarivate business data / Lingotto asset management and LP funds / private stakes.
capital_allocation: Buyback executed below estimated NAV is accretive to continuing shares but old cohort assumed to tender pro-rata and receives cash; no buyer-survivor NAV accretion assigned twice to old cohort.
dividends: Dividend inflow from investees to holdco (and historical Iveco one-off) distinct from Exor ordinary cash dividend to shareholders.
2026_Ferrari_after_cutoff: No. Q3 result dated Nov3 and included, parent profit is not Ferrari operating profit times ownership recognized as equity-accounted earnings.
investee_operating_cashflow_not_added_to_portfolio_values: はい

競争力・事業の質

strengths

内容を開く

1: Ferrari premium margins and brand moat
2: material net asset cover and historically strong holdco credit rating A-
3: diverse optional reinvestment into funds and healthcare
4: cancelled ordinary treasury has no economic dilution

weaknesses

内容を開く

1: extreme Ferrari concentration
2: Stellantis/CNH cyclical operating leverage and regulatory risk
3: opaque illiquid holdings
4: discretionary and sometimes dilutive manager LTI and voting control
5: Exor discount may persist indefinitely

leverage

June30 2026 gross notes €35.07億, financial liabilities €1.84億 (of which FX €1.39億 assumed settled Jul1), cash €21.79億, GAV €357.68億; 4.7% published LTV before subsequent transactions.

company_guidance_not_a_projection

2026 second-half results not known at November 6; 2036 normalized investee FCFE scenario values are hypotheses.

業界と環境

Ferrari: scarcity / high-end personalization; capex for new vehicles and brand; premium valuation sensitivity
Stellantis: ICE/EV mix, tariffs, US/Europe demand, pricing discipline, industrial FCF negative through cycle, regulation; expected 2027 return to cash generation uncertain
CNH: agriculture machine market trough, dealers, precision agriculture R&D, captive finance receivables differ from industrial leverage
Philips: hospital spending/recall claims, imaging and monitoring technology, compliance and product innovation
Juventus: match-day media revenues and player wage/contracts drive large operating swings; NCI not consolidated in investment entity NAV
Lingotto_other: liquid and illiquid LPs with FX/market beta and fund fees, residual market pricing uncertain
private: Louboutin consumer luxury, Economist subscriber churn, Institut Merieux diagnostics, Welltec equipment and oil & gas services disposal risk
future_investment: Investment cost does not create instant gain, future 2037 FCFE based on cost and after-maintenance-capex sustainable yield.

財務・資本配分

share_counts

June30 2026 issued 207,779,752, treasury 5,044,751; November2 2026 treasury 7,088,492, effective 200,691,260; net treasury +2,043,741 vs disclosed first+second tranche gross 2,050,116 discrepancy -6,375 (cannot infer exact award delivery without ledger).

special_voting_shares_A

117997914

ordinary_economic_special_voting_share_issue

いいえ

dividend_2026_confirmed_ex_date

2026-05-25

dividend_2026_confirmed_payment

2026-05-27

confirmed_2026_final_dividend_eur_per_share

0.49

included_2026_11_06_to_2036_11_06

いいえ

2026_LTI_PSO_scenario_exercise_assumptions

内容を開く

strong_bull

2029_exercised_fraction: 0.75

mild_bull

2031_exercised_fraction: 0.5

base

2031_exercised_fraction: 0.25

mild_bear

exercise_fraction: 0

bear

exercise_fraction: 0

2026_LTI_reported

内容を開く

2026_1h_sbc_expense_oku: 0.14
2026_1h_equity_credited_oku: 0.14
shares_delivered_2026_1h: 503043
PSO_granted: 891447
PSO_strike_eur: 86.46
PSO_vesting: 2028-12-31 conditional, exercise not guaranteed, omitted in issuance ledger
PSU_granted: 133147
PSU_vesting: 2028-12-31 conditional
RSU_granted: 10085
RSU_vesting: 2026–28 three instalments conditional

future_issuance_treatment

cash third-party issue adds cash and shares, reduces original cohort fraction; PSUs/RSUs release from existing treasury without cash to old owners; cancellation reduces issued and treasury equally.

share_repurchase_pro_rata

all future buyback shareholder receipts reported as initial shareholder fraction times issuer cash spent at each event; the remaining original cohort numerator falls pro-rata with outstanding denominator.

sbc_terminal_cost

2036 equity FCFE terminal deducts ONLY future stock-neutralizing employee compensation cost for 2037+, with first 2037 price (1+g)*2036 fair per share and a self-consistent fixed point. Future repurchase cash returned to pro-rata selling old holders appears in post-horizon cohort tail decomposition, not in 2026-2036 timed_cashflows again; employee delivery transfers ownership. Grant-date IFRS SBC expense and equal equity reserve credit cancel in current book equity and are not subtracted again.

financing

Annual interest on holdco notes deducted cash. Hypothetical same-day matched refinancing loans/repayments are visible as zero-net shareholder events, preserving gross holdco debt; note-by-note 2027–2036 maturities unverified. Terminal debt principal subtracted once, no second coupon perpetuity. Undrawn EUR11億 credit facility not modeled as cash.

cash_management_limitations

Proxy gross €35.52億 holdco notes + remaining financial liabilities; future maturities assumed rolled and interest recalculated, not future company-announced contracts.

評価の前提と確認

時価総額（億）

147.20703921

opening_NAV_oku

343.27135658

not_using_market_PE_to_choose_terminal

はい

not_using_fixed_discount_to_NAV_as_terminal

はい

held_portfolio_2026_prices

nov6 public spot prices, stale private/H1 marks disclosed

annual_fair_value_policy

before 2036, each investee mark evolves by scenario gross equity total return minus dividends received by holdco; in 2036 terminal replace booked mark with explicit year+1 normalized owner FCFE / (cost-of-equity - growth).

discount_not_assumed_to_close

はい

group_enterprise_value_not_added

Existing investee equity share prices already deduct their own debt/NCI. Never add investee net income as Exor consolidated profit AND claim priced shares.

no_extra_dividend_on_march_2027_after_horizon

はい

terminal_DCF_sensitivity

理由: Ferrari/Philips growth and k dominate terminal valuation; each 1pp larger r-g reduces all else equal entity Gordon value materially.
計算式: 2037 owner_FCFE / (r-g). E.g one 2027 ownerFCFE 1億, growth 4% through ~2036, 2037 terminal g=2%, r=10% => terminal ≈1.54/(0.08)=19.25億; at r=11% => 17.11億.
単位: 億EUR

2026_11_06_to_2036_11_06_start_and_end_stub

はい

no_double_count_in_terminal_grants

はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト: 9.50%
currency: EUR
real_or_nominal: nominal_EUR
cost_type: required_initial_shareholder_annual_discount_rate
basis: assumed required shareholder nominal return, used only for scenario present value; investee/terminal rates scenario specific
day_count: ACT/365.25 (calendar anniversary 2036-11-06 is 3653 days, t=10.0013689254)

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

シナリオ	確率	株主還元・追加負担	終価
強気	12.0%	29.03	786.33
やや強気	20.0%	25.95	474.48
中立	40.0%	22.99	315.41
やや弱気	20.0%	14.27	177.35
弱気	8.0%	5.35	70.28