Eiffage SA

分析の要約

2026年上期連結売上（IFRIC12除外）122.00億EUR、普通営業利益10.19億EUR、親会社帰属純利益3.42億EUR、親資本76.22億EUR、非支配13.14億EUR。基準日市場終値106.00EUR、実効株数は6月末の旧代理97,160,024株。2035年11月APRRと2036年9月AREAの満期後キャッシュフローをゼロとし、買戻し比例応札旧株主に帰属を合わせた10年CF。

発行株数は2026年10月末、自己株は6月末の代理値。APRRとAREAはそれぞれ2035年・2036年に満期。2036年表示損益は11月6日までの部分期を年換算した参考値で、10年の受取CFには終点後を含めない。SBC交付と有償引受の補充資金および非支配持分の資産・負債は仮定を明示。将来イベントの確認時期を過ぎたら実績確認まで期待リターンを保留。

事業

建設・道路土木・洋上風力/金属・エネルギー設備の工事収益は受注→進捗・運転資本・粗利に依存。高速道路/空港/PPPは通行量と規制料金に依存し、償還前提の期限付き使用権。2025売上253.13億EURから2026上期は122.00億EUR、季節要因で単純倍算しない。

競争力・事業の質

受注残315億EUR、工事事業の欧州分散、エネルギーシステム5.2%上期利益率、APRR・AREAの高採算。ただし営業赤字の上期Infrastructure、資本集約的コンセッション、少数持分と期限、契約資産・前受負債、キャッシュ生成の季節性。

業界と環境

建設・電力設備エンジニアリング・有料道路／空港PPP

財務・資本配分

2026-06-30親資本76.22億、NCI13.14億、連結現金45.17億、短長期借入合計139.00億、IFRS16賃借負債14.96億。公表純金融負債93.78億（IFRS16・スワップ調整除外）。コンセッション純債務98.92億、持株・工事側純現金5.14億は連結93.78億への内訳であり追加計上しない。

評価の前提と確認

market_price_reference_used_only_for_initial_payment_and_assumed_tender_prices

はい

exit_PER_PBR_mean_reversion_used

いいえ

terminal_method

2037 sustainable contracting post-tax FCFF/ (WACC-g) minus required net reinvestment + all surviving concession annual FCFF to legal expiry + finite equity-accounted distributions minus one consolidated net debt minus outside non-controlling claim

book_concession_intangibles_readded

いいえ

getlink_equity_method_book_readded

いいえ

long_term_APRR_area_profit_after_expiry

0

company_2026_group_Q3_reporting_not_available_by_cutoff

APRR sub-group September traffic data only

2026_shares_stale_proxy

はい

old_holder_CF_and_terminal_same_cohort

はい

company_capital_payout_not_substituted_for_old_holder_CF

はい

no_SBC_as_cash_cost_to_holder

はい

binding_market_price_at_2026_11_06_eur

106

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

9.20%

事業の質

中程度／高めの投資リスク

cost_basis

EUR equity return threshold; scenario company EV uses distinct WACCs and remaining-year concession DCF

why

10年ユーロ建て株主資本コスト9.2%。大型工事の入札・運営・労務リスク、少数持分・負債、2025収益に比べ2035/36期限で利益を喪失。金利・市場PERからの出口価格回帰なし。

distinct_discount_rates

core contracting WACC from 7.2% to10.2%; finite concessions 7% to10.1%; equity accounted cash uses 9.2% equity hurdle.

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

金額の単位

億EUR

財務・資本配分の詳細

debt_nonrecourse

Slide39 2026 H1 consolidated concession SPV FND €9,892m: APRR+Financière Eiffarie €7,001m, other motorway/airport €1,886m incl Toulouse Airport €70m, PPP €1,005m. Entire SPV FINANCIAL NET DEBT included in group consolidated net debt; assc Getlink/Nové investee debt not included. Distinguish nonrecourse risk and group equity.

share_issue_and_cancellation_actual_2026

2,193,857 shares issued for employee savings and same number treasury shares cancelled, keeping issued total 98m. Existing employee shareholding counts as issued/economic, not deducted twice.

buyback_past_baseline

Oct19-30 250,000 shares at aggregate 0.2477991億EUR before 2026-11-06; no second postbaseline cashflow.

financing_2026

APRR issued 500m bond January2026, maturity January2032, coupon3.125%, within recorded liabilities, not additional.

M_and_A

2026 H1 Getlink 29.4% (equity method), handwerk/engineering firms; 2026 October 21 stadium sale negotiations without confirmed purchase price, no fictitious sale gain.

financing_contract_assets_policy

IFRS15 progress billing and advance obligations separated from IFRIC12 concession intangibles and financial receivables.

accounting_non_cash_sbc_policy

SBC reduces IFRS profit/operating margin. Equity-settled expense credited back to equity reserve, grant/treasury transfers cause share ownership shifts with amount zero to old holders.

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

106

株数

97160024

株価基準日

2026-11-06

price_currency

EUR

price_exchange

Euronext Paris

price_source_ids

1

s08

2

s09

price_status

verified_close_by_issuer_website_and_independent_market

発行済株式数

98000000

issued_shares_asof

2026-10-31

issued_shares_source_id

s06

issued_shares_status

confirmed

自己株式数

839976

treasury_asof

2026-06-30

treasury_source_id

s01

treasury_status

outdated_proxy_not_confirmed_2026_11_06

shares_derived_asof

2026-06-30

shares_status

proxy_not_verified_2026_11_06

share_equation

98,000,000 issued (Oct31) minus 839,976 treasury (June30 proxy) equals 97,160,024 economic shares; mixed report dates explicitly disclosed

old_cohort_policy

all 97,160,024 originally outstanding economic shares, including any then-employee holdings; pro-rata tender for all post-baseline buybacks

old_cohort_shares

97160024

old_cohort_purchase_cost_oku

102.98962544

known_october_buyback_shares

250000

known_october_buyback_cost_oku

0.2477991

buyback_known_oct30_prior_to_asof

はい

october_buyback_cannot_be_deducted_from_june_treasury_without_unknown_interim_transfers

はい

alternative_economic_share_count_if_Oct250k_unoffset

96910024

alternative_pretax_market_cap_if_Oct250k_unoffset_oku

102.72462544

other_share_changes_jul_to_nov_unverified

未確認

employee_ownership_percent_2026_h1

0.238

employee_ownership_not_treasury

はい

株価の出所

https://www.abcbourse.com/cotation/FR0000130452p

株数の出所

https://webdisclosure.com/press-release/eiffage-epa-fgr-information-mensuelle-relative-au-nombre-total-des-droits-de-vote-et-dactions-composant-le-capital-social-XsdCStNBAQI

追加データ・検証記録

forecast_assumptions

内容を開く

FY2026_proxy

内容を開く

fy_revenue

255.7

fy_op

26.1477

fy_net_parent

11.7368695

fy_net_nci

4.305555

fy_tax

7.0552755

fy_finance

3.25

first_half_revenue

122

first_half_op

10.19

first_half_parent_net

3.42

first_half_nci_net

2.09

first_half_sbc_cost

0.79

fy_sbc_proxy

1.58

source_status

forecast_from_H1_not_reported_FY2026

2026_prebase_bridge

内容を開く

period_start

2026-07-01

期間末

2026-11-06

状態

estimate_mixed_H1_actual_plus_issuer_confirmed_Oct_prebase_buyback

H1_parent_equity_oku

76.22

estimated_new_parent_profit_oku

5.83084873

estimated_sbc_reserve_credit_oku

0.5538587

confirmed_october_treasury_cash_cost_oku

0.2477991

estimated_parent_equity_asof_oku

82.35690832

H1_nci_equity_oku

13.14

estimated_nci_equity_asof_oku

14.69329671

H1_cash_oku

45.17

assumed_consolidated_fcf_pre_equity_oku

8

prebase_debt_repaid_oku

1.5

asof_cash_proxy_oku

51.4222009

H1_gross_debt_oku

139

asof_gross_debt_proxy_oku

137.5

estimated_asof_net_debt_oku

86.0777991

treasury_proxy_stale_Jun30_and_not_reconstructed_from_incomplete_reported_trades

はい

known_oct_buyback_deducted_from_equity_and_cash_only

The actual Oct 19–30 cash repurchase is accounted in capital/cash before initial date; shares use stale June proxy rather than falsely reconstructing exact November shares.

year_2036_partial_period

内容を開く

start

2036-01-01

end

2036-11-06

reported_until_cutoff_inclusive_days

311

denominator_days_leap_year

366

accounting_fraction

0.849726775956

terminal_elapsed_time_days

3653

terminal_elapsed_years_by_365_25

10.001368925394

annual_profit_after_end_is_excluded

はい

dividend_rights_after_2036_11_06_excluded

はい

expiry_dates

内容を開く

APRR

2035-11-30

AREA

2036-09-30

APRR_fcf_after_2035_11_30

0

AREA_fcf_after_2036_09_30

0

source_for_2026_aprr_area_sales_split

not separately verified, model 2026 €2.6bn APRR and €0.55bn AREA of combined €3.15bn

concession_actual_expiry_granularity

Issuer 2024 URD states APRR 11/2035 and AREA 09/2036; exact last-calendar-day 11-30 and 09-30 assumed for daily model, not separately confirmed contract date.

business_price_volume_split

Revenue annual total CAGR assumptions separated into explicit pricing growth and residual production/traffic volume growth, chosen scenario inputs, not issuer forecast.

2026_existing_dividend

2026-05-20 ex and 2026-05-22 paid before baseline, not included in cashflows

forecast_dividend_assumed

each year April22 AGM approval, May20 next workday ex, payment two days later next workday. All future events forecast, not declared.

forecast_share_program

each March buy back 1m for employee subscription coverage, April issue 1m at80% of assumed price and cancel 1m treasury; June1 buy before granting computed treasury shares with total fair value = forecast IFRS2 expense minus subscription discount, June15 vest, Sep scenario discretionary purchases. Calculated grant shares vary by case/year. Illustrative and NOT announced.

past_2026_unconfirmed_12_15_vesting

100,000 treasury shares assumed delivered 2026-12-15, old-holder dilution amount0 and no issuer cash; nonactual.

margin_after_SBC

all forecast segment op margins already after IFRS2. SBC equity reserve credits to book equity once; the neutralization repurchases and discounted employee scheme net issuer cash burn are aligned with SBC charge (not deducted again from after-SBC terminal FCFF).

company_net_cash_flow

cash_end = cash_begin + consolidated_net_income - equity_method_non_cash_profit + actual_assumed_associate_dividends + noncash_SBC + D&A - maint_capex - growth_capex - M&A - WC - dividends_to_parent - dividends_to_NCI - buybacks + employee_cash_subscription - project_debt_repayment + explicit_rescue_debt

company_equity_bridge

parent_end=parent_begin+parent_net_after_SBC+SBC_equity_credit+employee_subscription_cash - parent_dividends_declared - company_buybacks; NCI_end=NCI_begin+NCI_net-NCI_dividend

market_buyback_price_proxy

Assumed execution prices use 2026 market price with scenario annual price drift only to size dated buybacks, never as terminal valuation multiplier.

NCI_terminal_estimate

nci_economic = residual_other_and_legacy_NCI_book*scenario_factor + sum project minority_pct*max(0, project100pct_EV - 2036_project_net_debt_proxy); residual=2036 total NCI book less the projected subsidiary book equity minority claims, floored at zero. Forward values and debt allocations unverified; not exit PBR.

business_values_without_known_LGV_expiry

BPL HSRL explicitly expires 2036, Amedea A412 under construction and other unallocated PPP rights have no incremental post-horizon value absent reliable FCFF; excluded rather than 100pct EV without debt. Future renewals excluded.

forecast_dividend_recheck_policy

for 2027..2036, prior business day at least fourteen calendar days before assumed ex_date; each event metadata and annual row includes recheck_before_ex_date.

getlink_annual_cash_economic_treatment

Eiffage H1 2026 recorded 34m euro equity-accounted profit and 129m euro Getlink dividend: annual IAS28 after-tax profit is NOT retaxed in consolidated corporate income tax; cash FCF subtracts noncash associate earnings and adds cash dividends; terminal uses dividend-equity valuation only, excludes Getlink from consolidated op EV and debt.

finite_cashflows_time_convention

2037..project-maturity annual cash is received at December 31 and discounted from exact 2036-11-06. The preceding version erroneously discounted first 2037 payment as after 0.153 years; corrected to 1.150 years.

remaining_project_debt_allocation

June2026 slide39 SPV financial net debt is already included in group net debt. An amortizing proportional allocation is used solely for economic NCI equity valuation, not for an additional group debt subtraction.

分析に使用した資料

• Eiffage 2026年上期半期財務報告（IAS34、財政状態・損益・株式報酬・自己株・負債・従業員増資） 2026-08-27
• Eiffage 2026年上期詳細プレゼンテーション（受注・セグメント・非遡及債務・コンセッション期限） 2026-08-26
• Eiffage 2025年本決算プレスリリース 2026-02-25
• Eiffage 2025 Universal Registration Document 2026-03-27
• APRR 2026年第3四半期売上・交通量プレス 2026-10-20
• 2026年10月31日発行済株式・議決権（11月4日開示） 2026-11-04
• 自己株取得 2026年10月19〜30日取引開示 2026-10-31
• 株式価格履歴（2026年11月6日付パリ終値€106）
• フランス本市場終値照合（2026年11月6日€106）
• 2024 Universal Registration Document（建設契約資産・負債明細、旧データ） 2025-03-28
• APRR/AREA expiry and no-consideration return: group 2024 URD 2025-03-28
• APRR consolidated financial statements 2024 (expiry conditions) 2025-03-01
• 2025年事業別売上・利潤と全コンセッション年限 2026-02-25
• 2026年実績配当5月22日支払の取締役会決議提案 2026-02-25
• 実際の2026年5月20日権利落ち日確認
• 2026 H1決算説明資料スライド25,28,30,39,41,42,52-54：子会社連結、持分法、保有比率、非遡及純負債内訳、Getlink受取配当 2026-08-26
• 2026 H1半期財務報告9項：無償付与株881,981・取得1,000,000・株式報酬資本振替78/79百万ユーロ 2026-08-26