AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE

URW · EUR · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

{ "thesis": "主要都市旗艦ショッピングセンターの賃料成長は底堅いが、IFRS再評価益を恒常的な配当原資とせず、2037+の従業員株式交付/市場買戻しの比例応募およびNCI帰属資金まで控除・反映した旧株主10年CFで評価", "ten_year_end_date": "2036-11-06", "scenario_probability_weighted_holder_PV_oku": 102.4199324, "initial_old_cohort_cost_oku": 136.1079985, "model_probability_weighted_margin_of_safety": -0.2475098, "expected_cashflow_stream_IRR": 0.0541157, "probability_weighted_mean_of_case_IRRs_not_equivalent_to_expected_IRR": 0.0091879, "model_decision": "割安/割高の判断は5ケースの想定k/g/維持投資に強く依存し、期中IFRS評価益と割引を重複採用しない" }

10年期待年率5.41%

資本コスト9.50%

直近終値94.16 EUR2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

{
"benefits": [
"欧州・米国の大型旗艦店にブランド力とテナント誘致力",
"9M2026商業施設同一物件賃料+3.8%、全体+4.4%、空室3.9%",
"SIIC等の法定分配規律と2026年度€5.50/株の計画"
],
"risks": [
"景気/オンライン小売/テナント賃料支払余力",
"キャップレート上昇による非現金再評価損と借入担保能力",
"JV利益が配当現金に変わらない時差",
"ハイブリッド証券は普通株帰属資本ではない",
"Westfield UTCの条件付株式発行最大260万株、未確定",
"フランスSIIC繰越分配義務€27.728億と法定利益要件",
"2026年11月6日現在のIFRS資本・純負債・自己株は未公表"
],
"accounting_unit": "All EUR amounts unless per-share in oku EUR; rates decimal",
"no_uniform_Japan_US_tax_deduction": true
}

自己株ゼロは未確認の代理仮定。2026年6月の統合後上場株数を使用し、ハイブリッド債・非支配持分を区別。2036年の表示損益は期末までの部分期間を年換算した参考推計で、評価期間外の利益は株主CFに加えない。未確定の配当権利日等を迎えた場合は実績確認まで期待リターンを保留。

事業

model

大型商業施設を所有運営し最低保証賃料・売上連動賃料・駐車場・小売メディア・広告・施設管理とC&E収入を得る。JVは持分法利益のみ、当該JV賃料の二重連結なし。

region

Europe and US flagships

operational_footprint_2026Q3

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owned_centres: 65
westfield_branded_centres: 41
annual_customer_visits_more_than_millions: 900
total_portfolio_value_oku_EUR: 495
shopping_centre_share_of_portfolio: 0.88
source_id: urw_2026_q3

asset_recycling_2026Q3

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original_2025_to_H1_2026_disposal_plan_completed_oku: 22
additional_disposals_completed_or_secured_2026_H2_oku: 4
additional_acquisitions_completed_or_secured_2026_H2_oku: 4
projects: Plaza Bonita, Winkelcentrum De Vijfhoek, San Francisco offices; Westfield Southcenter and Metropole Zličín JV partner stakes
statuses_mixed: some closed, some only secured; do not treat all as cash completed
source_id: urw_2026_q3

competitive_moat

立地、集積、テナント売上データ、Westfieldブランド、賃貸契約の賃料指数連動

sustainability_challenge

再開発・維持補修費、大型施設の交通アクセス・ESG設備投資、ECとの複合競争

de_stapling

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completed: 2026-06-25
security_after: URW SE ordinary shares FR0013326246 single Euronext Paris line
separate_old_NV_share_value_to_add: 0
impact_on_group_consolidation_scope: 0
source_id: urw_2026_h1

Westfield_UTC

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asof

conditional_not_closed_asof_Nov6

purchase_50pct_USD_millions

705

max_new_shares

2600000

hypothetical_fx_EURUSD

1.12

forecast_complete_scenarios

1: base
2: bull
3: upside

forecast_fail_scenarios

1: structural_stress
2: bear

if_close_2026_12_21

100% consolidation of property gross income and removal of previous JV investment, purchase cash and new shares separately

no_assumption_transaction_already_completed

はい

競争力・事業の質

moat_score_0_10

financial_risk_score_0_10_higher_more_risk

forecast_confidence_0_10

3.8

uncertainty

DCF inputs are not management projections and 2036 horizon is highly speculative

verified_metrics

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IFRS_LTV_2026H1: 0.388
net_debt_to_EBITDA_IFRS_2026H1: 8.4
lease_vacancy_2026_9m: 0.039
SBC_cash_flow_addback_H1_oku: 0.143

valuation_uncertainty

Non-cash fair value may dominate IFRS result; tenant sales, debt costs and refinancing affect sustainable FCF.

業界と環境

drivers

1: consumer retail footfall, e-commerce substitution, CPI indexed leases, tenant mix, cap-rate sensitivity
2: urban planning restrictions and large development project completion
3: US/EU interest rates and EUR/USD/GBP FX

EU_retail_plus_US_flagship_exposure

はい

risks

1: concentration in retail properties
2: lease incentives, vacancy, structural changes, ESG retrofits
3: joint ventures and partial control

SIIC_law

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france_CGI_article_208_C

tax exempt eligible rental earnings require 95% distributed by following FY, eligible gains 70% by end of second following FY, eligible SIIC subsidiary dividends effectively 100% by following FY subject to rules

carry_forward_obligation_2026H1_oku

27.728

payment_immediately_obligatory

いいえ

statutory_profit_condition

URW reports carried obligation deferred until sufficient standalone statutory result

distribution_can_be_from_share_premium

はい

foreign_local_tax_and_NCI

not ignored in company cashflow assumptions

investor_withholding_tax

not modeled uniformly for Japanese or US holder; depends beneficial owner, distribution type, treaties

出典番号

1: france_siic_law
2: urw_2026_h1

財務・資本配分

capital_source

issuer IFRS H1 and 10/31 share disclosure

book_value_per_share_2026H1_approx_EUR

113.636764

book_value_per_share_asof_proxy_EUR

117.1532661

price_to_book_asof_proxy_only

0.8037335

book_value_only_sanity_check_not_terminal

はい

capital_categories

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common_parent_equity_2026H1_oku: 164.174
hybrid_securities_2026H1_oku: 14.743
NCI_equity_2026H1_oku: 41.034
total_including_hybrid_NCI_2026H1_oku: 219.951

financial_debt

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IFRS_net_financial_debt_2026H1_oku: 186.224
financial_nominal_total_liabilities_2026H1_oku: 214.581
cash_2026H1_oku: 28.357
lease_liabilities_separate: はい
LTV_2026H1: 0.388

credit_market_2026Q3

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Moody_rating

Baa1 stable as of 2026-08-24

SP_rating

BBB+ stable as of 2026-10-09

2026_Q3_successful_financings_oku

5.2

2028_average_cost_of_debt_management_guidance_range

1: 0.028
2: 0.032

2026_09_30_cash_oku

source_id

urw_2026_q3

share_instruments

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issued_2026_10_31: 144549701
treasury_unconfirmed_asof: 未確認
H1_stock_option_cashflow_addback_oku: 0.143
H1_performance_share_expense_oku: 0.061
H1_stock_option_expense_oku: 0.016
H1_retention_share_expense_oku: 0.023
H1_company_savings_plan_cost_oku: 0.054
H1_equity_reserve_for_share_based_payments_oku: 0.143
H1_share_issued_for_savings_plan: 119610
H1_options_and_vested_shares: 994779
2026H1_options_in_diluted_EPS_not_all_immediately_outstanding: はい
share_issuance_future_uncertain: はい

returns

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already_paid_outside_forecast_dividend_EUR

4.5

historical_pre_basis_dividend

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fiscal_year

2025

dividend_per_share_EUR

4.5

ex_date

2026-05-15

ex_date_confirmed

2026-05-15

ex_date_assumed

未確認

payment_date

2026-05-19

payment_date_confirmed

2026-05-19

payment_date_assumed

未確認

ex_date_status

historical_confirmed

old_holder_cashflow_after_basis

いいえ

出典番号

1: historical_dividend_exdate
2: urw_2026_h1

FY2026_proposed_dividend_EUR

5.5

2027_FY2026_dividend_scenario_distributions

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structural_stress: 2.5
bear: 4.75
base: 5.5
bull: 5.5
upside: 5.5

2027_ex_date_confirmed

いいえ

forecast_old_holder_policy

all_holders_proportional_tender

buyback_asof_actual_2026

no H1 buyback cash disclosed; unknown any after June

third_party_issuance_UTC_conditional

はい

評価の前提と確認

market_price_2026_11_06_EUR

94.16

時価総額（億）

136.1079985

issuer_9M_IFRS_turnover_oku

22.28

issuer_H1_2026_actual_parent_net_profit_oku

10.091

issuer_H1_2026_IFRS_property_revaluation_oku

2.653

issuer_H1_2026_JV_result_oku

3.284

reference_AREPS_guidance_2026_EUR

1: 9.15
2: 9.3

terminal_value_estimation

post-2036 NCI-ringfenced common FCFE perpetual stream with future stock deliveries, pro-rata buyback tenders and paid employee subscriptions solved endogenously; not market multiple

no_NAV_or_investment_property_double_addition

はい

no_SE_NV_double_addition

はい

no_employee_share_grants_as_holder_cash_outflows

はい

future_SBC_delivery_no_double_count

はい

NCI_carrying_value_not_parent_equity_added

はい

JPY_USA_investor_tax_deduction

未確認

investor_tax_handling

未モデル化。日本・米国投資家に一律税率を控除せず、税額ゼロを保証しない。

terminal_also_discounted_at_fixed_10_anniversary_years

はい

future_2037plus_SBC_replacement_cash_and_NCI_ringfence_in_terminal

はい

post_terminal_2037plus_share_issuance_excluded_from_timed_cashflows

はい

no_future_ex_date_is_issuer_confirmed

はい

dated_cashflow_year_rule

(date_assumed - 2026-11-06).days / 365.25; terminal 2036-11-06 is at 10.0 calendar-anniversary years, not a dated cashflow event

horizon_calendar_end

2036-11-06

monetary_horizon_after_end_excluded

はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

9.50%

period

annual_effective_common_equity_required_return

terminal_k_scenario_dependent

はい

risk_components

riskfree_reference_assumed: 0.03
europe_retail_asset_equity_risk_premium_assumed: 0.055
leverage_fx_illiquidity_addon_assumed: 0.01

justification

9.5%は長期金融リスク・銀行借入・不動産リース変動、米ドル/ポンドに晒されるエクイティの必要収益率。市場PER逆算ではない。

事業別データ

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名称: Shopping centres
IFRS_9M2026_GRI_oku: 15.26
property_economics: Europe and US flagship centers, non-JV-only consolidated revenues
reported_vacancy_9M: 0.039

名称: Offices and other
IFRS_9M2026_GRI_oku: 0.39
property_economics: smaller non-retail exposure, office redevelopment risk

名称: Convention and Exhibition
IFRS_9M2026_GRI_oku: 1.62
property_economics: event cycle and venue contract activity

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名称: Equity-accounted joint ventures
H1_2026_equity_method_profit_oku: 3.284
H1_2026_investment_carrying_value_oku: 72.255
revenue_duplicated_with_IFRS_segments: いいえ
profits_cash_dividend_difference: share of result not cash remittance; future forecast removes JV result and adds only JV cash dividends

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名称: Fair value and asset recycling
H1_2026_property_valuation_oku: 2.653
H1_2026_disposal_accounting_gain_oku: 0.458
cash_proceeds_H12026_property_and_subs_disposal_oku: 5.777
double_count_free: gross asset sale proceeds in financing cash only; IFRS realized gains booked in profit and removed in CFO bridge

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

シナリオ	確率	株主還元・追加負担	終価
大幅上振れ・金利低下と高稼働	8.0%	138.80	288.37
強気・テナント生産性上昇	22.0%	112.38	201.57
中立・着実な賃料成長	40.0%	87.95	131.77
弱気・金利高止まり	20.0%	43.48	28.41
構造的不況・信用逼迫	10.0%	12.15	0.00