International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A.

分析の要約

【一次資料】2026年11月5日の中間配当は0.053EUR/株、権利落ち12月3日・基準日4日・支払開始7日。11月2日発行体RNSは発行済4,611,669,527株−自己株272,768,568株=参考4,338,900,959株。11月6日LSE終値433.70GBp、ECB同日0.83415GBP/EUR。【モデル】終点2036-11-06 04:30 UTCは終値から3652.5日後で厳密10年。FY2036利益を84.750683%のみ期間内認識し12月7日予定配当は対象外。会社全体の資本を事業利益・全社買戻し・全社配当・非現金SBC資本計上・増資収入で更新し、旧株主群は比例応札による買戻し現金と持分残存比率を台帳で追跡。2036終価は終点時点資本と次の365.25日利益・成長率・共通k=11%で市場PER/PBRを使わず算定。5ケース期待旧株主群現在価値258.9052億EUR、参考1株497.74GBp（乖離+14.77%）、市場価格含意年率IRR13.06%。2026年11月の未確定買戻し実績と将来の売主構成・買戻し単価は分析者仮定。

事業

British AirwaysはHeathrowの長距離・高付加価値、IberiaはMadridと中南米、VuelingはBarcelona中心の欧州短距離、Aer LingusはDublin発北大西洋、IAG LoyaltyはAviosポイント/非航空提携、その他はLEVEL・IAG Cargo・共通基盤および連結消去。航空会社間整備/ポイント収入の内部売上は外部売上に加算しない。

競争力・事業の質

score

0.7415

strengths

2026年9MグループASK265,131百万、RPK228,218百万、搭乗率86.1%、PRASK8.55ユーロセント。北大西洋・中南米とAvios非航空提携が競争優位。2026-09-30純負債42.20億EUR、net leverage0.6倍。

risks

2026年Q3燃油費は前年同期比30.4%増、9Mの燃料・排出費64.00億EUR。中東情勢、英国航空管制停止、エンジン耐久性/機材不足、従業員賃金、空港使用料、税制/SAF・環境規制、Avios VAT係争、英国ポンド/米ドルの換算/ヘッジが不確実。

業界と環境

supply

2026年9M航空機稼働630機。座席供給ASKと旅客収益/ASKが売上を規定するが運賃だけでなく搭乗率と路線構成が変動。

cost

2026年9M燃料・排出費64.00、従業員費51.59、整備関連20.38、減価償却20.73億EUR。リース元本は費用でなく資金返済、使用権減価償却とリース利息は別計上。

hedging

9M2026燃料のヘッジによる一部相殺があってもQ3コストは+30.4%。2027年燃油需要の約45%ヘッジ済との11月6日会社開示。

competition

Lufthansa/AF-KLM、Ryanair/easyJet、米国・中東・トルコ系航空会社。路線スロットと提携ネットワークの優位性はあるが料金規制・サービス品質・景気循環に弱い。

財務・資本配分

reported_2025_group_revenue_oku

332.13

reported_2025_ifrs_op_oku

50.24

reported_2025_parent_net_oku

33.42

reported_2025_parent_equity_oku

75.88

reported_2025_nci_equity_oku

0.06

reported_2026h1_revenue_oku

160.64

reported_2026h1_ebit_oku

16.08

reported_2026h1_profit_attributable_parent_oku

10.33

reported_2026h1_parent_equity_oku

86.25

reported_2026h1_nci_equity_oku

0.06

reported_2026h1_sbc_cost_in_equity_oku

0.31

reported_2026h1_treasury_acquisition_book_oku

6.86

reported_2026h1_treasury_movement_net_equity_oku

-0.3

reported_2026h1_dividend_equity_oku

2.22

reported_2026h1_other_comprehensive_income_oku

9.56

reported_2026_9m_revenue_oku

258.08

reported_2026_9m_op_oku

33.34

reported_2026_9m_group_profit_oku

22.64

reported_2026_9m_parent_profit_oku

未確認

reported_2026_9m_parent_equity_oku

未確認

reported_2026_9m_fuel_emissions_oku

64

reported_2026_9m_employee_cost_oku

51.59

reported_2026_9m_engineering_oku

20.38

reported_2026_9m_depr_amort_oku

20.73

reported_2026_9m_ASK_millions

265131

reported_2026_9m_passenger_revenue_oku

226.62

reported_2026_9m_RPK_millions

228218

reported_2026_9m_PRASK_eurocent

8.55

reported_2026_9m_net_debt_oku

42.2

reported_2026_9m_gross_borrowings_including_leases_oku

138.71

reported_2026_9m_cash_and_deposits_oku

96.51

reported_2026h1_lease_liabilities_oku

69.07

reported_2026h1_nonlease_loan_bonds_oku

69.6

reported_2026h1_right_of_use_assets_in_ppe_oku

未確認

reported_hybrid_perpetual_ordinary_parent_equity_oku

未確認

hybrid_clarification

2026H1親会社資本の構成は普通株資本金・資本剰余金・自己株・その他準備金であり、別建てのハイブリッド持分残高は明示されない。2028転換社債は損益に時価変動を計上する借入で、2026年に全額買戻し。ハイブリッド権利への普通株利益帰属調整を推測で設定しない。

forecast_2026_h2_parent_profit_oku

16.81

forecast_2026_h2_dividend_oku

2.29146257

forecast_pre_valuation_h2_buyback_july_oct_oku

4.4638676

forecast_post_valuation_h2_buyback_nov_dec_oku

1.5361324

forecast_2026_interim_dividend_eur_per_share_gross

0.053

2026_interim_dividend_ex_date

2026-12-03

2026_interim_dividend_record_date

2026-12-04

2026_interim_dividend_payment_date_from

2026-12-07

2026_interim_dividend_reference_amount_at_2026_11_02_shares_oku

2.299618

2026_interim_dividend_model_payment_oku

2.2914626

opening_bridge

h1 report EUR8.625bn+FY2026 Q3 parent profit 1.231bn (explicit analyst assumption equating consolidated to parent)+2026 Q4 parent profit 0.450bn (analyst forecast)−H2 2026 company buybacks EUR0.600bn−announced interim dividend at forecast ex-record economic shares (see ledger). Split into 2026-11-06 asof parent book and subsequent stub; 2027 opening book from event ledger.

forecast_2026_q3_parent_profit_proxy_oku

12.31

forecast_2026_q4_parent_profit_oku

4.5

forecast_2026_q4_revenue_oku

90

forecast_2026_q4_ebit_oku

8.5

forecast_2026_h2_pre_cut_profit_oku

14.10449728

forecast_2026_h2_post_cut_profit_oku

2.70550272

forecast_2026_h2_pre_cut_company_buybacks_oku

4.4638676

forecast_2026_h2_post_cut_company_buybacks_oku

1.5361324

forecast_2026_h2_total_buybacks_oku

6

forecast_2026_interim_dividend_payment_oku

2.29146257

forecast_parent_equity_at_2026_11_06_1630_oku

95.89062968

forecast_2027_open_parent_equity_oku

94.76853743

forecast_parent_equity_at_2036_exact_cut

未確認

forecast_parent_equity_at_2036_exact_cut_is_scenario_dependent

はい

company_2026_interim_dividend_record_shares_proxy

4323514283.0189

forecast_2026_interim_dividend_model_payment_oku

2.29146257

forecast_2026_interim_dividend_reference_amount_at_2026_11_02_shares_oku

2.29961751

forecast_2026h2_total_company_buybacks_oku

6

評価の前提と確認

株価基準日

2026-11-06

valuation_cut_timestamp_utc

2026-11-06T16:30:00+00:00

london_close_gbpence

433.7

london_close_gbp

4.337

ecb_gbp_per_eur

0.83415

price_eur_per_share

5.19930468

ex_treasury_shares_reference_date

2026-11-02

issued_shares_reference

4611669527

treasury_shares_reference

272768568

ex_treasury_reference_old_cohort_shares

4338900959

actual_asof_issued_and_treasury_shares_exact

未確認

expected_initial_market_cap_eur_oku

225.59268068

cutoff_2026_last_buyback_primary_disclosed

2026-10-30

oct_buyback_eur_oku_fx_proxy

1.3238676

oct_buyback_trade_shares_verified

26661076

pre_cut_2026_h2_buyback_oku

4.4638676

unverified_nov02_to_nov06_repurchases_oku

未確認

assumed_unverified_nov02_to_nov06_repurchases_oku

0

post_cut_buyback_2026_nov27_forecast_oku

0.8

post_cut_buyback_2026_dec29_forecast_oku

0.7361324

post_cut_buyback_2027_feb26_existing_program_forecast_oku

2.14

last_program_total_oku

5

last_program_check_oku

0

reported_2026_interim_dividend_eur_per_share

0.053

reported_2026_interim_ex_date

2026-12-03

reported_2026_interim_record_date

2026-12-04

reported_2026_interim_payment_from_date

2026-12-07

dividend_not_earned_on_new_ex_date_stock_after_2026_12_03

はい

reported_2026_h1_parent_equity_eur_oku

86.25

forecast_q3_2026_parent_income_proxy_oku

12.31

forecast_q4_2026_parent_income_oku

4.5

forecast_q4_2026_total_revenue_oku

90

forecast_q4_2026_total_ebit_oku

8.5

forecast_equity_at_asof_eur_oku

95.89062968

forecast_fy2027_open_equity_eur_oku

94.76853743

exact_10y_terminal_timestamp_utc

2036-11-06T04:30:00+00:00

expected_old_cohort_cash_payout_oku

195.27361575

expected_old_cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

407.60010974

expected_company_total_terminal_mcap_oku

410.18687851

expected_old_cohort_cash_pv_oku

115.35481527

expected_old_cohort_terminal_pv_oku

143.5504322

expected_old_cohort_total_pv_oku

258.90524747

expected_value_eur_per_initial_share

5.96706977

expected_value_gbp_per_initial_share

4.97743125

expected_value_gbpence_per_initial_share

497.743125

expected_reference_upside_ratio

0.147666878

expected_annualized_irr_from_initial_market_price

0.130591178

cohort_pv_formula

sum_0<t<=10 old_cash_i/(1+k)^t_i + remaining_old_interest_terminal_mcap/(1+k)^10

valuation_discount_rate

0.11

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.00%

事業の質

0.7415

事業の質の内訳

内容を開く

1

名称

Heathrow/長距離ネットワーク・スロット

ウェイト

0.25

score

0.85

2

名称

Iberia・北/南大西洋収益力

ウェイト

0.2

score

0.82

3

名称

Avios/IAG Loyalty収益品質

ウェイト

0.15

score

0.85

4

名称

財務柔軟性

ウェイト

0.15

score

0.7

5

名称

燃料・航空機/労務・景気耐性

ウェイト

0.15

score

0.43

6

名称

ガバナンス・配分規律

ウェイト

0.1

score

0.68

事業の質の根拠

加重主観点（加重合計=0.7415）。長距離ハブとAviosに参入障壁がある一方、燃料、労務、環境規制、航空機調達、景気循環、ヘッジの非対称性が大きいためEUR名目株主資本コスト11.0%を分析者仮定として5ケース共通採用。株価に合わせた逆算ではない。

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億EUR。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

5.199305

株数

4338900959

株価の出所

日付

2026-11-06

venue

London Stock Exchange XLON

close_gbpence

433.7

close_gbp

4.337

ecb_fx_gbp_per_eur

0.83415

converted_eur_per_share

5.199305

quote_url

https://markets.ft.markitdigital.com/data/equities/tearsheet/historical?s=IAG%3ALSE

london_exchange_url

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/IAG/international-consolidated-airlines-group-s-a

fx_url

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/index.en.html

limitations

11月6日終値433.70GBpはLSEを参照する複数の市場履歴配信で照合。LSEの動的公式ページから同日終値の静的原票は確認できない。ECBレートは同日14時頃の参考値でありロンドン16:30終値の同時刻実勢FXではない。

株数の出所

日付

2026-11-02

released_on

2026-11-02

発行済み

4611669527

自己株式

272768568

ex_treasury

4338900959

url

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/news/article/IAG/total-voting-rights/cd77-fc-a1-ee-1f-4370bc

注記

2日発行体公式RNSの議決権と自己株残高。11月6日当日の厳密株数はnull。6月末加重平均4,512百万株を期末株数に流用しない。

株価基準日

2026-11-06

検証上の留意点

base_currency

All book/model values are EUR 100m; price GBp/100=GBP and EUR=GBP/ECB(0.83415). Dividend in EUR per share gross before Spanish withholding tax.

price_and_shares_primary_distinction

2026-11-06 close 433.70GBp is matched secondary LSE history; official immutable LSE daily price tape not verified. 2026-11-02 IAG RNS issued 4,611,669,527; treasury 272,768,568; economic reference outstanding 4,338,900,959. As-of strict Nov6 issued/treasury remains null.

timing_clock

2026-11-06T16:30:00+00:00 London close used as t0; T=t0+3652.5days=2036-11-06T04:30:00+00:00. Each timed_cashflow has t=(timestamp-t0)/(365.25 days), 0<t<=10. Terminal discounted exactly 10 years.

2026_stub_method

Q3 2026 reported consolidated profit EUR1.231bn is not confirmed parent profit; analyst proxy assumes fully parent attributable; forecast 2026 Q4 parent profit EUR0.450bn, Q4 revenue EUR9.000bn, Q4 EBIT EUR0.850bn. Q4 accrual recognized uniformly by real seconds: 2026 Oct1→Nov6 16:30 =36.6875/92 Q4 (prevaluation) and Nov6→2027 Jan1 =55.3125/92 (in 10y). Historical 2026H1 parent equity EUR8.625bn from interim report, prevaluation H2 buybacks calibrated before asof and price/shares given at November 2 reference. If post-11/2 buys occurred before November 6, asof proxy changes.

2036_stub_method

2036 Jan1→2036 Nov6 04:30 =310.1875 days of leap-year 366, share 0.8475068306011. Only that fraction of 2036 full FY sales/costs/parent profit/SBC capital credit added, plus Jun30 dividend and Oct15 buyback and Sep30 employee treasury delivery. Dec7 2036 dividend and remaining full-year profit/cost are outside horizon and not pre-counted.

2036_remaining_fiscal_year

2036 Nov6 04:30→2037 Jan1 (55.8125 days) is not in in-horizon realized income or payout. This future stub is used exclusively in the next-12-month forward profit for terminal valuation, not in preterminal cashflows.

forward_12m_terminal_profit

NTM=FY2036 forecast parent net ×(55.8125/366)+FY2037 forecast parent net ×(309.4375/365). FY2037 forecast parent profit=FY2036 forecast net×(1+g), assuming flat intra-year realization. Time window T to T+365.25 days. Discounting terminal uses NTM and as-of terminal equity: company V=(NTM−g E_T)/(k−g). Terminal old cohort mcap=V×old_remaining_shares/economic_outstanding.

profit_and_SBC

2027-2036 full FY operating profit and IFRS-like parent net forecast reused without addback of stock-compensation expense. Employee share-settled stock compensation service credit accrues uniformly 0.20 oku/year to parent equity, separately from already expensed earnings, and actual treasury shares transferred at Sep30 without another equity credit. 2026 H2 share award capital credit assumed 0. SBC delivery is noncash: issuer_cash=0 and old_holder_cash=0; dilution in remaining share fraction. Cash-settled SBC causes no employee shares. Need actual future award schedule to replace scenario assumptions.

treasury_and_issued_ledger

Shares: initial issued 4,611,669,527 and treasury 272,768,568. Buybacks transfer shares from old holders/employee/new holders to company treasury; issued share count unchanged until legal cancellation, none assumed. Employee share delivery draws from treasury (issued unchanged, treasury decreases), outstanding rises and new employee pool increases. New issue cash/issued shares modeled as 0 but supported in ledger; if issued, issued and new outside-investor shares increase and cash proceeds add to equity. Share conservation checked at every event.

cohort_assumed_pro_rata_tender

All future purchases assumed old/employee/new outside investors tender in proportion to outstanding then. Those who tender get actual modeled purchase cash, while surviving old holders claim only remaining company interest at T. Secondary market trades not modeled. Actual seller identity and share execution prices cannot be verified in advance. The Qatar affiliate buyback is included by issuer share repurchase cash and original cohort pool, rather than separately adding Qatar proceeds to total return.

2026_interim_dividend

Issuer approved interim cash dividend gross 0.053EUR per eligible share on Nov5; ex Dec3, record Dec4, from Dec7. 2026 Nov27 forecast repurchases lower record-date modeled eligible share count. Actual outstanding at 2026 Dec4 unknown; so payment quantity/total not issuer-confirmed. Record claim frozen at Dec4 and paid once Dec7. No dividend entitlement on shares purchased ex Dec3 or later. For UK CDIs receipt may be later; baseline assumes Dec7.

buyback_existing_2026_to_2027

First EUR500m repurchase completed May 14 2026; second EUR500m completed Sep10. Third launched Oct5, planned to finish Feb26 2027. Four reported Oct weeks total buys and 2026-11-06 reference EUR/GBP conversion imply approximate first month spend. 2026 H2 assumed total EUR600m separates 2026 H2 prevaluation EUR(314m+Oct weeks proxy) and 2026 Nov-Dec future buys. Final 2027 February committed program remaining EUR214m appears exactly once as part of FY2027 gross buyback budgets, not as an extra payout. Buyback before t0 is excluded from future cohort cashflows and already reflected in asof old share count.

capital_equation

Company: ending parent equity=asof parent equity + post-asof-to-T parent earnings + noncash share-settled SBC capital credits + proceeds from issuance - all issuer company dividends - all issuer company cash buybacks. Old cohort: payout=its own paid dividends + proportional tender proceeds, not company gross payout; cannot substitute old payout into company accounting equity equation. Each scenario ledger records equity and shares after every event; all bridges independently zero residual at unrounded precision.

valuation_equation

Coherent cohort PV=Σ_{nonterminal cohort cash within 0<t<=10} cash_t/(1+k)^t+terminal_company_value×old_holder_remaining_fraction/(1+k)^10. k=0.11 for all 5 cases. Company value derived from forward 12m ROE, long-run growth & necessary reinvestment; neither market PER/PBR nor enterprise EV less net debt again.

annualized_IRR

Scenario annualized IRRs and probability-mix expected market-implied IRR solve the full date-stamped old-holder cash plus terminal (year=10) discounted at variable IRR equals initial reference equity market cap. Probability-weighted individual IRRs are NOT used as the expected implied IRR. All rates are EUR nominal pre-tax illustrative projections.

convertible_hybrid_and_nci

IAG H1 2026 parent equity excludes non-controlling interest 0.06bn; separately tracked preferred/hybrid equity verification remains null. IFRS net debt includes lease liabilities so equity terminal no second debt deduction. 2028 convertible debt described as borrowing not extra assumed common shares; future conversions not modeled, reassessment needed.

fx_hedge

GBP/EUR for initial valuation fixed at ECB 2026 Nov6 rate 0.83415 GBP/EUR. Future cash assumed EUR denominated for comparability; actual GBP investment IRR and FX/currency hedging exposure differs. Jet fuel, SAF, operating lease, aircraft deliveries and hedge OCI risk remain in original forecasts and are not separately subtracted again.

2026_ex_dividend_price_refresh

For stock prices on/after 2026-12-03 ex date, do not credit a new buyer with 2026-12-07 dividend; once paid, remove it from valuation-date future events. On a new price date rebuild the old-holder cohort, eligible share count, equity balance, and remaining cashflow schedule together rather than adding the already spent dividend twice.

source_evidence

Issuer 2026-11-05 dividend RNS, 2026-11-02 total voting rights RNS, 2026-10-02 final buyback launch, CNMV weekly reports Oct, 2026-11-06 Q3 interim management report, 2026-07-31 IAS34 interim management report, ECB 2026-11-06 FX, LSE price secondary provider.

scenario_consistency_checks

内容を開く

1

内容を開く

key

bull

prob

10.00%

asof_equity_oku

95.89062968

profit_in_horizon_oku

539.70224375

issuer_dividends_in_horizon_oku

114.87611257

issuer_buybacks_in_horizon_oku

264.6126324

sbc_noncash_capital_credits_in_horizon_oku

1.96950137

new_issue_proceeds_in_horizon_oku

0

company_parent_equity_terminal_oku

258.07362983

book_bridge_residual_oku

-0

old_holder_cash_payout_oku

378.15747311

cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

872.54238223

company_total_terminal_mcap_oku

877.31720961

cohort_discounted_cash_oku

215.31743116

cohort_discounted_terminal_oku

307.2958841

cohort_total_pv_oku

522.61331525

old_holder_remaining_shares_at_terminal

2133150872

economic_shares_at_terminal

2144824147

cohort_fraction

0.994557467559

nonterminal_timed_cashflow_count

43

fy2036_dec_dividend_excluded

はい

fiscal_2026_stub_profit_and_dividend_disclosed

はい

2

内容を開く

key

mild_bull

prob

20.00%

asof_equity_oku

95.89062968

profit_in_horizon_oku

439.57095798

issuer_dividends_in_horizon_oku

106.69691257

issuer_buybacks_in_horizon_oku

179.6603324

sbc_noncash_capital_credits_in_horizon_oku

1.96950137

new_issue_proceeds_in_horizon_oku

0

company_parent_equity_terminal_oku

251.07384405

book_bridge_residual_oku

-0

old_holder_cash_payout_oku

285.30848985

cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

612.16208087

company_total_terminal_mcap_oku

615.85248399

cohort_discounted_cash_oku

165.56159081

cohort_discounted_terminal_oku

215.59398338

cohort_total_pv_oku

381.15557419

old_holder_remaining_shares_at_terminal

2534318346

economic_shares_at_terminal

2549596418

cohort_fraction

0.994007650822

nonterminal_timed_cashflow_count

43

fy2036_dec_dividend_excluded

はい

fiscal_2026_stub_profit_and_dividend_disclosed

はい

3

内容を開く

key

base

prob

40.00%

asof_equity_oku

95.89062968

profit_in_horizon_oku

336.77865641

issuer_dividends_in_horizon_oku

92.01871257

issuer_buybacks_in_horizon_oku

106.9513324

sbc_noncash_capital_credits_in_horizon_oku

1.96950137

new_issue_proceeds_in_horizon_oku

0

company_parent_equity_terminal_oku

235.66874248

book_bridge_residual_oku

-0

old_holder_cash_payout_oku

198.21486427

cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

392.22412092

company_total_terminal_mcap_oku

394.84412678

cohort_discounted_cash_oku

117.68849698

cohort_discounted_terminal_oku

138.13524759

cohort_total_pv_oku

255.82374457

old_holder_remaining_shares_at_terminal

3033917445

economic_shares_at_terminal

3054183617

cohort_fraction

0.993364455271

nonterminal_timed_cashflow_count

43

fy2036_dec_dividend_excluded

はい

fiscal_2026_stub_profit_and_dividend_disclosed

はい

4

内容を開く

key

mild_bear

prob

20.00%

asof_equity_oku

95.89062968

profit_in_horizon_oku

222.96193897

issuer_dividends_in_horizon_oku

66.20856257

issuer_buybacks_in_horizon_oku

23.8778324

sbc_noncash_capital_credits_in_horizon_oku

1.96950137

new_issue_proceeds_in_horizon_oku

0

company_parent_equity_terminal_oku

230.73567505

book_bridge_residual_oku

0

old_holder_cash_payout_oku

89.75834679

cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

184.50288321

company_total_terminal_mcap_oku

185.89903094

cohort_discounted_cash_oku

56.66541198

cohort_discounted_terminal_oku

64.97905175

cohort_total_pv_oku

121.64446373

old_holder_remaining_shares_at_terminal

3958582490

economic_shares_at_terminal

3988537393

cohort_fraction

0.992489752496

nonterminal_timed_cashflow_count

43

fy2036_dec_dividend_excluded

はい

fiscal_2026_stub_profit_and_dividend_disclosed

はい

5

内容を開く

key

bear

prob

10.00%

asof_equity_oku

95.89062968

profit_in_horizon_oku

107.15737227

issuer_dividends_in_horizon_oku

28.00631257

issuer_buybacks_in_horizon_oku

3.6761324

sbc_noncash_capital_credits_in_horizon_oku

1.96950137

new_issue_proceeds_in_horizon_oku

0

company_parent_equity_terminal_oku

173.33505835

book_bridge_residual_oku

-0

old_holder_cash_payout_oku

31.58555405

cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

41.23230334

company_total_terminal_mcap_oku

41.67203847

cohort_discounted_cash_oku

23.02272804

cohort_discounted_terminal_oku

14.52137726

cohort_total_pv_oku

37.5441053

old_holder_remaining_shares_at_terminal

4267811072

economic_shares_at_terminal

4313326513

cohort_fraction

0.98944771724

nonterminal_timed_cashflow_count

33

fy2036_dec_dividend_excluded

はい

fiscal_2026_stub_profit_and_dividend_disclosed

はい

expected_pv_check

内容を開く

probability_sum

1

expected_old_cohort_cash_payout_oku

195.27361575

expected_old_cohort_terminal_mcap_oku

407.60010974

expected_old_cohort_cash_pv_oku

115.35481527

expected_old_cohort_terminal_pv_oku

143.5504322

expected_old_cohort_total_pv_oku

258.90524747

expected_ir_market_price

0.130591178

probability_weighted_pv_identity_residual_oku

-1.0E-9

initial_company_reference_market_cap_oku

225.59268068

market_price_IRR_PV_residual_oku

-0

unverified

内容を開く

exact_2026_11_06_postbuyback_ordinary_shares

未確認

actual_2026_nov2_nov6_buyback_volumes_and_costs

未確認

exact_2026_12_04_record_date_eligible_shares

未確認

exact_2026_12_07_gross_dividend_total_eur

未確認

exact_2026_dec29_buybacks

未確認

actual_2027_feb_completion_and_price

未確認

actual_shareholder_buyback_seller_membership

未確認

actual_future_employee_SBC_vesting_numbers

未確認

actual_future_equity_issue_numbers

未確認

future_company_book_OCI

未確認

2026_9m_IFRS_parent_attributable_profit_and_equity

未確認

2026_11_06_official_immutable_LSE_close_tape

未確認

realized_2036_11_06_company_equity_and_forward_earnings

未確認

unverified_reason

Published as of Nov6: current official share balance is last Nov2, next buyback days/record-date shares are future; repurchase seller identities, tax/FX, 2036 profits/capital not observable. Every such quantity is labeled analysis proxy or null rather than issuer actual.

rounding

Calculations retain internal precision for time, book equity, shares (integer changes) and discounted CF. Displayed EUR100m generally rounded to 8 decimals; financial annual budgets from supplied forecast to 4 decimals. Minor differences in displayed additions can appear after rounding; validation uses unrounded quantities for numerical equalities.

annual_path_disambiguation

For 2027–2035 annual_path rows are complete fiscal-year forecasts and equity_oku is calendar-year-end parent equity. For 2036, annual_path row financial operating fields and segments are FULL FY2036 planning budget, but equity_oku is actual valuation endpoint model book (T=2036-11-06 04:30 UTC). The separate full_fy_budget holds FY2036 end equity and all full-year payment forecasts; valuation_relevant_2036_partial and partial_periods contain realized only until the exact 10y cutoff. December 2036 payout is not included in payout_oku.

business_segments_2036_partial_qty_price

2036 partial segmented volume = FY2036 forecast activity/ASK volume ×310.1875/366; price and rev_factor unchanged; partial segment sales=partial volume×unit price×rev_factor. Segment operating profit likewise scaled. Jan–Oct airline capacity assumed uniform through the year for the purpose of the fraction; this simplification ignores summer aviation seasonality. 2026 Nov–Dec stub segment sales allocated by H1 external sales mix; specific Q4 ASK/prices unknown null.

cancel_bought_treasury_shares

Unverified post-asof cancellation is not invented in ledger: future purchased shares are held in treasury and may be used later for employees. A hypothetical cancellation of c treasury shares reduces issued by c AND treasury by c, leaving economic outstanding, cohort cash, the terminal old fraction and book equity unchanged (capital within equity only).

追加データ・検証記録

分析に使用した資料

• IAG Q3/9M 2026 Interim Management Statement（2026-11-06公表、9M IFRSとASK、燃油、会社別調整後OP） 2026-11-06
• IAG 2026 H1 Interim Management Report（IAS34未監査、資本・IFRS会社別セグメント・SBC・株数注記） 2026-07-31
• IAG 2025 Annual Report and Accounts（監査済、2026-03-05開示） 2026-03-05
• IAG Total Voting Rights 2026-11-02（発行済4,611,669,527、自己株272,768,568） 2026-11-02
• IAG Share capital（2026-03-24消却登記後の発行済4,611,669,527）
• IAG Interim Dividend Declaration（2026-11-05、0.053EUR/株、2026-12-07支払予定） 2026-11-05
• ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates（2026-11-06、EUR/GBP 0.83415） 2026-11-06
• Financial Times IAG:LSE historical close（2026-11-06、433.70GBp） 2026-11-06
• IAG 2026-09-11 completion of second EUR500m share-buyback tranche 2026-09-11
• IAG CNMV 2026-11-05 interim dividend notice: €0.053, ex 3 Dec, record 4 Dec, payment from 7 Dec 2026-11-05
• IAG 2026-10-02 launch of final €500m buyback, 26 February 2027 end, pro-rata Qatar Airways sellers 2026-10-02
• IAG CNMV 2026-10-13 market buyback weighted-average prices Oct 5-9 2026-10-13
• IAG CNMV 2026-10-19 market buyback weighted-average prices Oct 12-16 2026-10-19
• IAG CNMV 2026-10-26 market buyback weighted-average prices Oct 19-23 2026-10-26
• IAG CNMV 2026-11-02 market buyback weighted-average prices Oct 26-30 2026-11-02
• IAG official dividend history and UK CDI receipts delayed approximately 10 days
• IAG launch of final 500m EUR buyback on October 5, 2026, scheduled completion by February 26 2027 2026-10-02