Antofagasta plc

分析の要約

{
"assessment_ja": "銅と金/モリブデンの市況上昇とCentinela増産が株主利益に大きく効く一方、高額設備投資、複数鉱山の非支配持分、有限埋蔵量と水案件の不確実性を加味する。",
"risk_and_valuation_comment_ja": "10年末2036年11月6日時点の残存価値は市場PERでなく2036年残余〜2065年の鉱山別FCFF・閉山費用を資産割引率9.5%で割引き、2036年帰属純負債を1回控除したもの。金属名目価格は2040年以降操業費と同じ1.7%上昇。",
"asof_note_ja": "2026年6月末IFRSは実績、9月末生産数量は実績。11月6日時点資本/純負債と2027年以降は推計。",
"weights_severe_downside_bear_base_bull_very_bullish": [
0.1,
0.2,
0.4,
0.2,
0.1
],
"nonmining_2065_sunset_correction_ja": "旧v3が2060年前後にBuenaventura配当とFCABを機械的にゼロにして2065年以降の非鉱山価値を無条件に打切った点を修正。会社一次資料は2065年打切りを保証していない。新基準ケースは2036以降のBVN持分配当、FCAB維持投資後FCFF、必要管理費を2065まで個別計上し2066以降に非鉱山だけg=1.5%の継続価値を仮定。既存鉱山事業には永久成長を適用しない。BVN株売却回収は分配DCFと排他的な感応度のみ。2036年親会社帰属負債は一度だけ除算し、非支配持分をCF・債務で二重控除しない。2027以降の未宣言配当ex_dateはnullのまま行政上の確認開始日・再確認日を付記。",
"no_Antofagasta_management_guarantee_for_BVN_FCAB_post_2065": true
}

基準日の厳密な自己株・信託株数は未確認のためゼロを代理仮定。USD財務を同日のGBPUSD=1.3352で換算し将来も固定した仮定。有限鉱山の閉山費用と条件付きの鉱量転換、BVN・運輸事業の継続価値、権益割合に応じた純負債を別々に評価する。未発表の配当権利落ち日と第三者増資等は予測の再確認日を過ぎると表示を保留。

事業

description_ja

チリ銅鉱山3連結事業とZaldívar持分法JV、Buenaventura持分法投資、鉄道・輸送

revenue_currency

USD mainly Cu/Au/Mo sold internationally

mine_ownership

内容を開く

Los_Pelambres

0.6

Centinela

0.7

Antucoya

0.7

Zaldivar_JV_equity_method

0.5

Transport

1

nci_structure

LP40%, Centinela30%, Antucoya30% subsidiary NCI; Zaldívar 50% JV equity-accounted, not consolidated sales

reserve_and_mine_life_policy

2025 JORC ore reserves 4286.1 Mt including JV 100% vs 2858.0 Mt ownership-weighted; modeled physical mine runoff in 2037-2065; conversion and water/permit contingent

water

Los Pelambres desalinisation expansion + pipeline; Zaldívar announced USD900m project within JV excluding group 2026 capex guidance; credit/equity financing assumption 50/50

royalty_and_taxes

estimated ad valorem 1.1% of revenue charged to site cash expenses; mine income taxes incl progressivity separately; H1 reported effective group tax 36%

currency_exposure

Sales USD, largely Chilean CLP local payroll and consumables, reporting USD, listing GBP; scenario costs differ by Chile exposure

finite_life_reinvestment

ongoing sustaining and mine-development capex occurs every forecast year; post2036 DCF includes sustaining/replenishment, closure and site shutdown, no perpetual growing mine earnings

競争力・事業の質

economic_moat

long-duration Chilean copper/gold/moly resources and desalination infrastructure; capital intensive, not a software-like recurring margin

principal_strengths

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1

large ore endowment Centinela

2

by-product gold/moly revenue lowers effective cash cost

3

owner-supported balance sheet

4

2027 project ramp potential

principal_weaknesses

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1

commodity price taker

2

water/permit/climate exposure

3

mine-site NCI limits listed common owner receipts

4

grade depletion and significant capital needs

5

strike and Chile royal-tax uncertainty

sbc_implementation

IFRS after cash-settled share-based employee expense, with employee phantom award cash cost and no artificial stock dilution

model_risk

high: quarterly IFRS data missing after June 2026; commodity path dominates 2036 terminal fair value

業界と環境

primary_inputs

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1

realised copper USD/lb

2

molybdenum USD/lb

3

gold USD/oz

4

concentrate/cathode tonnes

5

grade and water

6

site labour and CLP

7

gross capex and resource replacement

2026_9_month_sales_source

Antofagasta 2026 Q3 primary release

policy

chile_royalty

ad-valorem within site operating expense, income-tax component within effective mine tax

cost_shocks

diesel, sulphuric acid, power, ore grade, CLP; 2026 Oct Centinela union strike uncertainty

long_run_copper_economics

scenario conditions; future price assumptions explicitly not issuer price guidance

scenario_probabilities_are_judgmental

はい

財務・資本配分

ordinary_shares_initial_million

985.856695

parent_book_equity_2026_06_30_oku

80.531007

NCI_equity_2026_06_30_oku

32.436339

parent_attributable_net_debt_2026_06_30_oku

20.310066

group_net_debt_2026_06_30_oku

29.704164

parent_equity_estimate_asof_2026_11_06_oku

86.248146

holder_economics_model

full_initial_common_share_cohort_proportional_tender_for_repurchases; new third_party_stock_issuance_dilutes_old_cohort

share_based_awards

phantom_cash_settled_employee_compensation_expensed_in_parent_earnings_no_new_shares

buybacks_to_2026_11_06_company_completed_verified

未確認

treasury_stock_and_employee_trust_quantity_verified

未確認

next_known_declared_dividend_after_2026_11_06

未確認

forward_dividend_calendar

May final, September interim; all post-cutoff dates are assumptions, ex_dates set null until issuer announces

future_new_issue_only_scenarios

1

severe_downside

2

bear

future_buybacks_only_scenarios

1

base

2

bull

3

very_bullish

finite_life_closure_liability_note

2026 June provision reported 556.1USDm is included in book equity already; post2036 closure cash is deducted once in operating DCF, without subtracting book liability again

net_debt_not_double_counted

consolidated net debt belongs group; terminal values use parent-attributable net debt only, and NCI profits are removed before owner valuation

評価の前提と確認

terminal_method

finite_life_discounted_post_horizon_asset_FCFF_2036_2065_9p5pct_less_parent_net_debt_once

market_PE_used

いいえ

market_PB_used

いいえ

cost_of_equity_used

0.11

valuation_uses_2036_11_06_not_2036_12_31

はい

2026_June_financial_anchor_reliable_but_2026_Nov_book_equity_estimated

はい

mining_reserves_vs_mineral_resources_separated

はい

subsidiary_NCI_not_double_counted

はい

cash_settled_SBC_not_treated_as_shareholder_cash_flow

はい

Zaldivar_revenue_not_double_consolidated

はい

scenario_weights_sum_1

1

cutoff_interim_dividend_not_duplicated

はい

residual_post2065_mine_perpetuity_assumed

いいえ

known_upstream_errors

lack of cutoff IFRS Q3 profits and November own-share detail limits empirical precision; all future ex dates unknown

post2065_BVN_FCAB_perpetuity_explicitly_conditional

はい

site_debt_2711p8m_USD_primary_source_proven

はい

nonmining_asset_book_value_no_double_count

はい

2026_2036_ledger_unchanged_in_this_revision

はい

terminal_post2036_asset_and_equity_CF_component_discount_rates_not_mixed

はい

underlying_annual_2026_to_2036_sites_CFs_not_recognised_twice

はい

announced_vs_future_dividend_ex_date_status_not_conflated

はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

11.00%

currency

GBP

real_or_nominal

nominal

basis

equity_required_return_with_copper_price_and_project_risk_further_represented_in_five_scenario_probabilities

terminal_discount_same_k

いいえ

annual_compounding_actual_days_over_365_25

はい

market_PER_or_PBR_not_used_to_calculate_terminal

はい

terminal_asset_discount_rate

0.095

WACC_vs_cost_of_equity_note

9.5% for post-2036 unlevered asset flow; 11% for listed old-shareholder dated dividends and exit value

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

31.13

株価基準日

2026-11-06

株数

985856695

株価の出所

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/ANTO/antofagasta-plc

株数の出所

https://www.antofagasta.co.uk/investors/shareholder-information/

detail

内容を開く

as_of

2026-11-06

価格・単価

内容を開く

値

31.13

currency

GBP

quote

3113

quote_currency

GBX

日付

2026-11-06

種類

London_closing_auction

状態

market_observed

source_url

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/ANTO/antofagasta-plc

株数

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issued_ordinary_shares

985856695

reported_source_date

2026-06-30

current_issuer_share_information

985856695

状態

reported_count_used_as_2026_11_06_proxy_subsequent_changes_not_independently_identified

treasury_shares_asof_cutoff_verified

未確認

employee_share_trust_shares_asof_cutoff_verified

未確認

assumed_treasury_and_trust_shares_for_model

0

effective_outstanding_shares_for_valuation

985856695

preferred_shares_separately_nonordinary

2000000

number_in_millions

985.856695

終価

306.89718915

forex

内容を開く

rate_USD_per_GBP

1.3352

日付

2026-11-06

source_kind

secondary_market_reference

状態

observed_approximate_market_close_not_a_central_bank_fixing

projection

fixed_rate_conversion_assumption_not_forecast

計算式

GBP_oku = USD_millions / (100 * USD_per_GBP)

CLP_exposure

Chilean peso mining costs have scenario-dependent stress multiplier; USD metal sales and USD IFRS statements, GBP LSE cash valuation

IFRS_historical

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2025_12_31

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parent_equity_USDm

10370.1

noncontrolling_equity_USDm

4060.3

group_equity_USDm

14430.4

ordinary_issued_shares

985856695

audit_status

audited_FY2025

2026_H1_to_2026_06_30

内容を開く

reported_unaudited

はい

revenue_USDm

4479

cash_operating_expense_ex_DA_USDm

1849.4

parent_profit_USDm

847.3

NCI_profit_USDm

429.9

group_net_profit_USDm

1277.2

EBITDA_non_IFRS_USDm

2840.5

group_capex_actual_USDm

1672.1

gross_cash_operating_cashflow_USDm

2772.9

net_operating_cashflow_USDm

1593.4

parent_book_equity_USDm

10752.5

noncontrolling_book_equity_USDm

4330.9

total_group_book_equity_USDm

15083.4

group_net_debt_USDm

3966.1

parent_attributable_net_debt_USDm

2711.8

cash_plus_liquid_investments_USDm

4160.1

gross_financial_borrowings_USDm

8126.2

parent_dividends_paid_USDm

473.3

NCI_dividends_paid_USDm

160

equity_method_assoc_JV_profit_USDm

164.4

associate_JV_cash_dividends_received_USDm

47.6

historical_parent_equity_bridge_USDm

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start_2025_12_31

10370.1

IFRS_parent_profit

847.3

OCI

8.4

FY2025_final_div_paid

-473.3

end_2026_06_30

10752.5

site_revenue_USDm

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Los_Pelambres

2243.5

Centinela

1622.8

Antucoya

527.9

Zaldivar_consolidated

0

Transport

84.8

site_parent_profit_USDm

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Los_Pelambres

403.9

Centinela

328.2

Antucoya

82.3

Zaldivar_JV_equity_method

25.9

h1_realized_copper_USD_lb

6.19

h1_realized_molybdenum_USD_lb

32.6

h1_realized_gold_USD_oz

4772

2026_09_30_YTD

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状態

company_reported_production_only_not_IFRS_income_statement

consolidated_plus_attributable_JV_copper_kt

436.9

group_copper_sales_kt_including_Zaldivar_50pct

438.5

gold_production_koz

137.1

molybdenum_production_kt

9

mine_copper_production_kt

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Los_Pelambres

213.1

Centinela_total

143.9

Centinela_concentrates

102

Centinela_cathodes

41.9

Antucoya

55.8

Zaldivar_attributable_50pct

24.1

mine_copper_sales_kt

内容を開く

Los_Pelambres

214.1

Centinela_concentrates

102.8

Centinela_cathodes

40.7

Antucoya

56.4

Zaldivar_50pct

24.5

mine_molybdenum_prod_kt

Los_Pelambres

6.7

Centinela

2.3

mine_gold_prod_koz

Los_Pelambres

37.1

Centinela

100

year_to_date_realized_copper_price_USD_lb

6.43

year_to_date_realized_molybdenum_price_USD_lb

33.5

year_to_date_realized_gold_price_USD_oz

4561

average_chilean_pesos_per_usd_2026_YTD

906

preliminary_pricing_adjustment_2026_YTD_copper_USDm

274.6

preliminary_pricing_adjustment_2026_YTD_molybdenum_USDm

103

year_to_date_2026_copper_unit_cash_cost_before_byproduct_USD_lb

2.81

2026_guidance_copper_kt_min_max

1

625

2

655

2027_guidance_copper_kt_min_max

1

630

2

690

2026_guidance_consolidated_capex_USDm_excluding_Zaldivar

3400

2027_capex_guidance_not_issued_at_cutoff

はい

ore_reserves_2025_12_31

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状態

JORC_2012_company_annual_reserves_estimate_NOT_total_mineral_resources

million_tonnes_100pct_for_consolidated_sites

Los_Pelambres

715.7

Centinela

2505.2

Antucoya

711.5

Zaldivar_million_tonnes_100pct_JV

353.6

group_total_million_tonnes_including_100pct_JV

4286.1

proportionate_attributable_total_million_tonnes

2858

reserve_conversion_contingent_on_permits_water_tailings_capex

はい

distributions_to_2026_11_06

1

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instrument

ordinary

financial_period

FY2025 final

declaration_status

reported

ex_date

2026-04-16

record_date

2026-04-17

payment_date

2026-05-11

cash_per_share_USD

0.48

equivalent_GBP_per_share

0.355766

total_company_cash_paid_USDm

473.3

included_in_post_2026_11_06_timed_cashflows

いいえ

already_in_2026_H1_reported_book_equity

はい

2

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instrument

ordinary

financial_period

H1 2026 interim

declaration_status

reported

ex_date

2026-09-03

record_date

2026-09-04

payment_date

2026-09-30

cash_per_share_USD

0.301

total_company_cash_paid_USDm

296.742865

included_in_post_2026_11_06_timed_cashflows

いいえ

deducted_once_in_June30_to_Nov06_equity_bridge

はい

sbc

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reporting_policy

cash_settled_phantom_performance_share_awards_recognized_as_LIABILITY_and_annual_PnL_expense

equity_settled_shares_in_current_policy

0

cash_settled_expense_for_H1_2026_separately_reconciled_USDm

未確認

理由

2026 interim report does not separately identify a robust standalone phantom award expense matching full statutory PnL; future forecast uses transparent explicit assumption, actual parent PnL already includes recorded cost

share_register

内容を開く

ordinary_shares

985856695

ordinary_shares_status

2026 half-year EPS disclosure and issuer share information (post-H1 to cutoff share-change verification incomplete)

treasury_shares_asof_2026_11_06

未確認

employee_trust_owned_shares_asof_2026_11_06

未確認

forecast_treasury_or_trust_shares_2026_11_06_assumption

0

source_company_new_buyback_completed_by_2026_11_06

未確認

current_cash_settled_staff_awards_do_not_issue_ordinary_shares

はい

corporate_control

Luksic_group_related_two_major_stakes_percent_2025

64.92

minority_rights_at_mines_vs_ordinary_shareholder_freely_float

40pct LP, 30pct Centinela and Antucoya are subsidiary NCI, not London listed ordinary shares

chilean_mining_policy

mining_specific_taxes

income taxes plus ad-valorem royalty already modeled as expense; no second separate shareholder levy

desalination_and_water

Los Pelambres desal expansion to 800 litres/second under construction; Zaldivar water pipeline $0.9bn approved and JV financing assumed

currency_primary_revenue_USD

USD copper, gold, molybdenum; Chilean peso operating exposure; reporting USD and listing GBP

decommissioning_restoration_provision_group_2026_06_30_USDm

556.1

balance_sheet_bridge_to_cutoff

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from_date

2026-06-30

cutoff_date

2026-11-06

basis

company_reported_halfyear_plus_scenario_independent_2026_H2_model_proxy_to_asof; 2026Q3 IFRS P&L and November balances NOT published

reported_2026_06_30_parent_equity_USDm

10752.5

estimated_2026_07_01_to_11_06_parent_profit_USDm

1060.095339

2026_09_30_reported_interim_dividend_paid_USDm

296.742865

estimated_asof_parent_equity_USDm

11515.852474

reported_2026_06_30_NCI_equity_USDm

4330.9

estimated_2026_07_01_to_11_06_NCI_profit_USDm

585.388715

unverified_assumed_NCI_interim_cash_payout_USDm

100

estimated_asof_NCI_equity_USDm

4816.288715

estimated_asof_group_equity_USDm

16332.141189

estimated_asof_parent_attributable_net_debt_USDm

2551.547558

estimated_asof_consolidated_net_debt_USDm

3549.280594

parent_equity_book_oku

86.248146

parent_attributable_net_debt_oku

19.109853

NCI_book_oku

36.071665

forecasting_days

H2_total_2026

184

pre_cutoff_2026_07_01_through_11_06

129

post_cutoff_2026_11_07_through_12_31

55

cash_flow_bridge_method

CFO_parent=attributable_IFRS_profit + attributable_DA - attributable_actual_maintenance_and_growth_capex - working_capital - equity_method_PnL + actual_dividends_from_associates - equity_funding_for_JV; minority dividend and company dividend are financing outlays

状態

ESTIMATED_not_reported_asof_2026_11_06

start_2026_11_06_estimated_parent_equity_oku

86.248146

start_2026_11_06_estimated_nci_equity_oku

36.071665

start_2026_11_06_estimated_parent_attributable_net_debt_oku

19.109853

start_2026_11_06_estimated_consolidated_net_debt_oku

26.582389

parent_attributable_net_debt_2026_H1_company_APM_USDm_proven

2711.8

historical_2026_H1_site_level_debt_and_cash_ownership_audit

内容を開く

source_URL

https://prod.antofagasta.co.uk/media/4972/20260813_antofagasta-hy26-aug26-vf.pdf

company_document_page

58

pdf_zero_based_page

57

model_or_observed

observed_H1_2026_company_nonIFRS_APM_not_balance_sheet_debt_consolidation

reported_attributable_cash_USDm

3378.9

reported_attributable_borrowings_USDm

6090.7

reported_attributable_net_debt_USDm

2711.8

sum_formula

[3039*0.60+2470.1*0.70+262.9*0.70+2353.9+0.3] - [1234*0.60+719*0.70+239.8*0.70+1929.4+37.9] = 2711.84 US$m (rounded source rows; report rounds to 2711.8)

asset_financing_by_site_USDm

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Los_Pelambres

内容を開く

ownership

0.6

cash_gross

1234

borrowings_gross

3039

cash_parent

740.4

borrowings_parent

1823.4

parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm

1083

parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm

1083

Centinela

内容を開く

ownership

0.7

cash_gross

719

borrowings_gross

2470.1

cash_parent

503.3

borrowings_parent

1729.1

parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm

1225.8

parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm

1225.77

Antucoya

内容を開く

ownership

0.7

cash_gross

239.8

borrowings_gross

262.9

cash_parent

167.9

borrowings_parent

184

parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm

16.1

parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm

16.17

Corporate

内容を開く

ownership

1

cash_gross

1929.4

borrowings_gross

2353.9

cash_parent

1929.4

borrowings_parent

2353.9

parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm

424.5

parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm

424.5

Transport

内容を開く

ownership

1

cash_gross

37.9

borrowings_gross

0.3

cash_parent

37.9

borrowings_parent

0.3

parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm

-37.6

parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm

-37.6

consolidated_borrowings_USDm

8126.2

consolidated_cash_USDm

4160.1

difference_NCI_share_of_net_debt_USDm

1254.3

JV_Zaldivar_50pct_finance_not_consolidated

はい

noncontrolling_interests_once_assets_and_liabilities

はい

transport_cash_and_debt_in_attributable_balance_100pct

はい

no_double_subtraction_of_NCI_debt_from_parent_only_FCFF

はい

forecast_2036_attributable_debt_is_not_reported

はい

追加データ・検証記録

分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。

追加データを開く →

分析に使用した資料

• company_primary
• company_primary
• company_primary
• company_primary
• company_primary
• exchange_primary
• market_independent_crosscheck
• FX_secondary_market
• market_primary
• Antofagasta H1 2026 PDF, p35 segment, p46 associate, p58 attributable debt 2026-08-13
• Transport Division performance and business description 2026-11-06_or_earlier