AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
Antofagasta plc
ANTO · GBP · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
{ "expected_present_value_oku": 50.660766, "starting_market_cap_oku": 306.89718915, "estimated_10yr_intrinsic_value_to_market_ratio": 0.165074063, "estimated_10yr_annual_expected_IRR": -0.146820412, "expected_annual_IRR_excess_over_k": -0.256820412, "expected_probability_weighted_holder_cash_oku": 62.448552, "expected_probability_weighted_old_cohort_terminal_mcap_oku": 32.105146, "market_price_GBP": 31.13, "model_intrinsic_value_per_initial_2026_share_GBP": 5.138756, "conclusion_ja": "非鉱山の2065強制ゼロは不適切なモデル仮定。企業のBVN持分・FCAB資産の継続価値を条件付きで追加。期待IRRは新全ケース旧株主CFと最終旧株主持分のXIRRで再計算。金属価格・寿命・更新投資と非鉱山持続性に強く依存。", "profit_bridge_audited_55_rows": true, "max_parent_profit_unexplained_residual_oku": 1.6577e-06, "model_v4_vs_v5_note_ja": "2026年11月7日以降のJV現金分配と時点別利益の配賦差額を修正。2027以降の独立利益接続に根拠のない追加費用・二重税を見つけなかった。" }
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
{
"assessment_ja": "銅と金/モリブデンの市況上昇とCentinela増産が株主利益に大きく効く一方、高額設備投資、複数鉱山の非支配持分、有限埋蔵量と水案件の不確実性を加味する。",
"risk_and_valuation_comment_ja": "10年末2036年11月6日時点の残存価値は市場PERでなく2036年残余〜2065年の鉱山別FCFF・閉山費用を資産割引率9.5%で割引き、2036年帰属純負債を1回控除したもの。金属名目価格は2040年以降操業費と同じ1.7%上昇。",
"asof_note_ja": "2026年6月末IFRSは実績、9月末生産数量は実績。11月6日時点資本/純負債と2027年以降は推計。",
"weights_severe_downside_bear_base_bull_very_bullish": [
0.1,
0.2,
0.4,
0.2,
0.1
],
"nonmining_2065_sunset_correction_ja": "旧v3が2060年前後にBuenaventura配当とFCABを機械的にゼロにして2065年以降の非鉱山価値を無条件に打切った点を修正。会社一次資料は2065年打切りを保証していない。新基準ケースは2036以降のBVN持分配当、FCAB維持投資後FCFF、必要管理費を2065まで個別計上し2066以降に非鉱山だけg=1.5%の継続価値を仮定。既存鉱山事業には永久成長を適用しない。BVN株売却回収は分配DCFと排他的な感応度のみ。2036年親会社帰属負債は一度だけ除算し、非支配持分をCF・債務で二重控除しない。2027以降の未宣言配当ex_dateはnullのまま行政上の確認開始日・再確認日を付記。",
"no_Antofagasta_management_guarantee_for_BVN_FCAB_post_2065": true
}
基準日の厳密な自己株・信託株数は未確認のためゼロを代理仮定。USD財務を同日のGBPUSD=1.3352で換算し将来も固定した仮定。有限鉱山の閉山費用と条件付きの鉱量転換、BVN・運輸事業の継続価値、権益割合に応じた純負債を別々に評価する。未発表の配当権利落ち日と第三者増資等は予測の再確認日を過ぎると表示を保留。
事業
- description_ja
チリ銅鉱山3連結事業とZaldívar持分法JV、Buenaventura持分法投資、鉄道・輸送
- revenue_currency
USD mainly Cu/Au/Mo sold internationally
- mine_ownership
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 0.6
- Centinela
- 0.7
- Antucoya
- 0.7
- Zaldivar_JV_equity_method
- 0.5
- Transport
- 1
- nci_structure
LP40%, Centinela30%, Antucoya30% subsidiary NCI; Zaldívar 50% JV equity-accounted, not consolidated sales
- reserve_and_mine_life_policy
2025 JORC ore reserves 4286.1 Mt including JV 100% vs 2858.0 Mt ownership-weighted; modeled physical mine runoff in 2037-2065; conversion and water/permit contingent
- water
Los Pelambres desalinisation expansion + pipeline; Zaldívar announced USD900m project within JV excluding group 2026 capex guidance; credit/equity financing assumption 50/50
- royalty_and_taxes
estimated ad valorem 1.1% of revenue charged to site cash expenses; mine income taxes incl progressivity separately; H1 reported effective group tax 36%
- currency_exposure
Sales USD, largely Chilean CLP local payroll and consumables, reporting USD, listing GBP; scenario costs differ by Chile exposure
- finite_life_reinvestment
ongoing sustaining and mine-development capex occurs every forecast year; post2036 DCF includes sustaining/replenishment, closure and site shutdown, no perpetual growing mine earnings
競争力・事業の質
- economic_moat
long-duration Chilean copper/gold/moly resources and desalination infrastructure; capital intensive, not a software-like recurring margin
- principal_strengths
内容を開く
- 1
large ore endowment Centinela
- 2
by-product gold/moly revenue lowers effective cash cost
- 3
owner-supported balance sheet
- 4
2027 project ramp potential
- principal_weaknesses
内容を開く
- 1
commodity price taker
- 2
water/permit/climate exposure
- 3
mine-site NCI limits listed common owner receipts
- 4
grade depletion and significant capital needs
- 5
strike and Chile royal-tax uncertainty
- sbc_implementation
IFRS after cash-settled share-based employee expense, with employee phantom award cash cost and no artificial stock dilution
- model_risk
high: quarterly IFRS data missing after June 2026; commodity path dominates 2036 terminal fair value
業界と環境
- primary_inputs
内容を開く
- 1
realised copper USD/lb
- 2
molybdenum USD/lb
- 3
gold USD/oz
- 4
concentrate/cathode tonnes
- 5
grade and water
- 6
site labour and CLP
- 7
gross capex and resource replacement
- 2026_9_month_sales_source
Antofagasta 2026 Q3 primary release
- policy
- chile_royalty
ad-valorem within site operating expense, income-tax component within effective mine tax
- cost_shocks
diesel, sulphuric acid, power, ore grade, CLP; 2026 Oct Centinela union strike uncertainty
- long_run_copper_economics
scenario conditions; future price assumptions explicitly not issuer price guidance
- scenario_probabilities_are_judgmental
- はい
財務・資本配分
- ordinary_shares_initial_million
- 985.856695
- parent_book_equity_2026_06_30_oku
- 80.531007
- NCI_equity_2026_06_30_oku
- 32.436339
- parent_attributable_net_debt_2026_06_30_oku
- 20.310066
- group_net_debt_2026_06_30_oku
- 29.704164
- parent_equity_estimate_asof_2026_11_06_oku
- 86.248146
- holder_economics_model
full_initial_common_share_cohort_proportional_tender_for_repurchases; new third_party_stock_issuance_dilutes_old_cohort
- share_based_awards
phantom_cash_settled_employee_compensation_expensed_in_parent_earnings_no_new_shares
- buybacks_to_2026_11_06_company_completed_verified
- 未確認
- treasury_stock_and_employee_trust_quantity_verified
- 未確認
- next_known_declared_dividend_after_2026_11_06
- 未確認
- forward_dividend_calendar
May final, September interim; all post-cutoff dates are assumptions, ex_dates set null until issuer announces
- future_new_issue_only_scenarios
- 1
severe_downside
- 2
bear
- future_buybacks_only_scenarios
- 1
base
- 2
bull
- 3
very_bullish
- finite_life_closure_liability_note
2026 June provision reported 556.1USDm is included in book equity already; post2036 closure cash is deducted once in operating DCF, without subtracting book liability again
- net_debt_not_double_counted
consolidated net debt belongs group; terminal values use parent-attributable net debt only, and NCI profits are removed before owner valuation
評価の前提と確認
- terminal_method
finite_life_discounted_post_horizon_asset_FCFF_2036_2065_9p5pct_less_parent_net_debt_once
- market_PE_used
- いいえ
- market_PB_used
- いいえ
- cost_of_equity_used
- 0.11
- valuation_uses_2036_11_06_not_2036_12_31
- はい
- 2026_June_financial_anchor_reliable_but_2026_Nov_book_equity_estimated
- はい
- mining_reserves_vs_mineral_resources_separated
- はい
- subsidiary_NCI_not_double_counted
- はい
- cash_settled_SBC_not_treated_as_shareholder_cash_flow
- はい
- Zaldivar_revenue_not_double_consolidated
- はい
- scenario_weights_sum_1
- 1
- cutoff_interim_dividend_not_duplicated
- はい
- residual_post2065_mine_perpetuity_assumed
- いいえ
- known_upstream_errors
lack of cutoff IFRS Q3 profits and November own-share detail limits empirical precision; all future ex dates unknown
- post2065_BVN_FCAB_perpetuity_explicitly_conditional
- はい
- site_debt_2711p8m_USD_primary_source_proven
- はい
- nonmining_asset_book_value_no_double_count
- はい
- 2026_2036_ledger_unchanged_in_this_revision
- はい
- terminal_post2036_asset_and_equity_CF_component_discount_rates_not_mixed
- はい
- underlying_annual_2026_to_2036_sites_CFs_not_recognised_twice
- はい
- announced_vs_future_dividend_ex_date_status_not_conflated
- はい
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 11.00%
- currency
GBP
- real_or_nominal
nominal
- basis
equity_required_return_with_copper_price_and_project_risk_further_represented_in_five_scenario_probabilities
- terminal_discount_same_k
- いいえ
- annual_compounding_actual_days_over_365_25
- はい
- market_PER_or_PBR_not_used_to_calculate_terminal
- はい
- terminal_asset_discount_rate
- 0.095
- WACC_vs_cost_of_equity_note
9.5% for post-2036 unlevered asset flow; 11% for listed old-shareholder dated dividends and exit value
事業別データ
- reported_H1_2026_USDm
内容を開く
- consolidated
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres_revenue
- 2243.5
- Centinela_revenue
- 1622.8
- Antucoya_revenue
- 527.9
- Transport_revenue
- 84.8
- total_revenue
- 4479
- Los_Pelambres_parent_earnings
- 403.9
- Centinela_parent_earnings
- 328.2
- Antucoya_parent_earnings
- 82.3
- Zaldivar_equity_method_parent_earnings
- 25.9
- Buenaventura_other_associate_profit
- 138.3
- group_parent_earnings
- 847.3
- H1_mine_cash_operating_cost_USDm
- Los_Pelambres
- 842.5
- Centinela
- 597
- Antucoya
- 274.1
- H1_site_costs_separate_from_corporate
- はい
- H1_mine_revenue_USDm_by_product_estimated_freight_rounding_adjustment
- Los_Pelambres
内容を開く
- copper
- 1685.1
- gold
- 96.8
- molybdenum
- 352.1
- silver
- 81.7
- shipping
- 27.8
- Centinela
内容を開く
- copper
- 1178.9
- gold
- 282.5
- molybdenum
- 97.1
- silver
- 47.3
- shipping
- 17
- Antucoya
内容を開く
- copper
- 525.2
- gold
- 0
- molybdenum
- 0
- silver
- 0
- shipping
- 2.7
- H1_mine_depreciation_USDm
- Los_Pelambres
- 274.5
- Centinela
- 343.3
- Antucoya
- 93.8
- consolidated_mine_capex
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 468.5
- Centinela
- 1074.8
- Antucoya
- 109.3
- Transport
- 17.9
- Corporate_mining_other
- 1.6
- total
- 1672.1
- Q3_2026_YTD
内容を開く
- 状態
company_reported_production_only_not_IFRS_income_statement
- consolidated_plus_attributable_JV_copper_kt
- 436.9
- group_copper_sales_kt_including_Zaldivar_50pct
- 438.5
- gold_production_koz
- 137.1
- molybdenum_production_kt
- 9
- mine_copper_production_kt
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 213.1
- Centinela_total
- 143.9
- Centinela_concentrates
- 102
- Centinela_cathodes
- 41.9
- Antucoya
- 55.8
- Zaldivar_attributable_50pct
- 24.1
- mine_copper_sales_kt
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 214.1
- Centinela_concentrates
- 102.8
- Centinela_cathodes
- 40.7
- Antucoya
- 56.4
- Zaldivar_50pct
- 24.5
- mine_molybdenum_prod_kt
- Los_Pelambres
- 6.7
- Centinela
- 2.3
- mine_gold_prod_koz
- Los_Pelambres
- 37.1
- Centinela
- 100
- year_to_date_realized_copper_price_USD_lb
- 6.43
- year_to_date_realized_molybdenum_price_USD_lb
- 33.5
- year_to_date_realized_gold_price_USD_oz
- 4561
- average_chilean_pesos_per_usd_2026_YTD
- 906
- preliminary_pricing_adjustment_2026_YTD_copper_USDm
- 274.6
- preliminary_pricing_adjustment_2026_YTD_molybdenum_USDm
- 103
- year_to_date_2026_copper_unit_cash_cost_before_byproduct_USD_lb
- 2.81
- 2026_guidance_copper_kt_min_max
- 1
- 625
- 2
- 655
- 2027_guidance_copper_kt_min_max
- 1
- 630
- 2
- 690
- 2026_guidance_consolidated_capex_USDm_excluding_Zaldivar
- 3400
- 2027_capex_guidance_not_issued_at_cutoff
- はい
- forecast_method
mine quantity * 2204.6226 pounds/tonne * realised USD/lb, gold koz*USD/oz, moly tonnes*USD/lb; site costs, depreciation, royalties, income taxes; Zaldívar equity method outside reported revenue
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非常に強気 | 10.0% | 173.82 | 129.85 |
| 強気 | 20.0% | 113.10 | 81.09 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 50.85 | 7.25 |
| 弱気 | 20.0% | 9.69 | 0.00 |
| 厳しい弱気 | 10.0% | 1.68 | 0.00 |
非常に強気（確率 10.0%）
- copper_long_run_2036_USD_per_lb
- 6.5
- production_multiplier_from_2028
- 1.09
- resource_conversion_and_closure_assumption_dates
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 2051
- Centinela
- 2063
- Antucoya
- 2051
- Zaldivar
- 2051
確率の根拠
銅価格、鉱山投資、品位と資源転換に関する分析上の仮定。
強気（確率 20.0%）
- copper_long_run_2036_USD_per_lb
- 5.7
- production_multiplier_from_2028
- 1.05
- resource_conversion_and_closure_assumption_dates
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 2051
- Centinela
- 2060
- Antucoya
- 2048
- Zaldivar
- 2051
確率の根拠
銅価格、鉱山投資、品位と資源転換に関する分析上の仮定。
中立（確率 40.0%）
- copper_long_run_2036_USD_per_lb
- 4.65
- production_multiplier_from_2028
- 1
- resource_conversion_and_closure_assumption_dates
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 2051
- Centinela
- 2058
- Antucoya
- 2045
- Zaldivar
- 2051
確率の根拠
銅価格、鉱山投資、品位と資源転換に関する分析上の仮定。
弱気（確率 20.0%）
- copper_long_run_2036_USD_per_lb
- 3.9
- production_multiplier_from_2028
- 0.95
- resource_conversion_and_closure_assumption_dates
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 2039
- Centinela
- 2056
- Antucoya
- 2044
- Zaldivar
- 2038
確率の根拠
銅価格、鉱山投資、品位と資源転換に関する分析上の仮定。
厳しい弱気（確率 10.0%）
- copper_long_run_2036_USD_per_lb
- 3.2
- production_multiplier_from_2028
- 0.88
- resource_conversion_and_closure_assumption_dates
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 2037
- Centinela
- 2051
- Antucoya
- 2040
- Zaldivar
- 2029
確率の根拠
銅価格、鉱山投資、品位と資源転換に関する分析上の仮定。
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 31.13
- 株価基準日
2026-11-06
- 株数
- 985856695
- 株価の出所
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/ANTO/antofagasta-plc
- 株数の出所
https://www.antofagasta.co.uk/investors/shareholder-information/
- detail
内容を開く
- as_of
2026-11-06
- 価格・単価
内容を開く
- 値
- 31.13
- currency
GBP
- quote
- 3113
- quote_currency
GBX
- 日付
2026-11-06
- 種類
London_closing_auction
- 状態
market_observed
- source_url
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/ANTO/antofagasta-plc
- 株数
内容を開く
- issued_ordinary_shares
- 985856695
- reported_source_date
2026-06-30
- current_issuer_share_information
- 985856695
- 状態
reported_count_used_as_2026_11_06_proxy_subsequent_changes_not_independently_identified
- treasury_shares_asof_cutoff_verified
- 未確認
- employee_share_trust_shares_asof_cutoff_verified
- 未確認
- assumed_treasury_and_trust_shares_for_model
- 0
- effective_outstanding_shares_for_valuation
- 985856695
- preferred_shares_separately_nonordinary
- 2000000
- number_in_millions
- 985.856695
- 終価
- 306.89718915
- forex
内容を開く
- rate_USD_per_GBP
- 1.3352
- 日付
2026-11-06
- source_kind
secondary_market_reference
- 状態
observed_approximate_market_close_not_a_central_bank_fixing
- projection
fixed_rate_conversion_assumption_not_forecast
- 計算式
GBP_oku = USD_millions / (100 * USD_per_GBP)
- CLP_exposure
Chilean peso mining costs have scenario-dependent stress multiplier; USD metal sales and USD IFRS statements, GBP LSE cash valuation
- IFRS_historical
内容を開く
- 2025_12_31
内容を開く
- parent_equity_USDm
- 10370.1
- noncontrolling_equity_USDm
- 4060.3
- group_equity_USDm
- 14430.4
- ordinary_issued_shares
- 985856695
- audit_status
audited_FY2025
- 2026_H1_to_2026_06_30
内容を開く
- reported_unaudited
- はい
- revenue_USDm
- 4479
- cash_operating_expense_ex_DA_USDm
- 1849.4
- parent_profit_USDm
- 847.3
- NCI_profit_USDm
- 429.9
- group_net_profit_USDm
- 1277.2
- EBITDA_non_IFRS_USDm
- 2840.5
- group_capex_actual_USDm
- 1672.1
- gross_cash_operating_cashflow_USDm
- 2772.9
- net_operating_cashflow_USDm
- 1593.4
- parent_book_equity_USDm
- 10752.5
- noncontrolling_book_equity_USDm
- 4330.9
- total_group_book_equity_USDm
- 15083.4
- group_net_debt_USDm
- 3966.1
- parent_attributable_net_debt_USDm
- 2711.8
- cash_plus_liquid_investments_USDm
- 4160.1
- gross_financial_borrowings_USDm
- 8126.2
- parent_dividends_paid_USDm
- 473.3
- NCI_dividends_paid_USDm
- 160
- equity_method_assoc_JV_profit_USDm
- 164.4
- associate_JV_cash_dividends_received_USDm
- 47.6
- historical_parent_equity_bridge_USDm
内容を開く
- start_2025_12_31
- 10370.1
- IFRS_parent_profit
- 847.3
- OCI
- 8.4
- FY2025_final_div_paid
- -473.3
- end_2026_06_30
- 10752.5
- site_revenue_USDm
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 2243.5
- Centinela
- 1622.8
- Antucoya
- 527.9
- Zaldivar_consolidated
- 0
- Transport
- 84.8
- site_parent_profit_USDm
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 403.9
- Centinela
- 328.2
- Antucoya
- 82.3
- Zaldivar_JV_equity_method
- 25.9
- h1_realized_copper_USD_lb
- 6.19
- h1_realized_molybdenum_USD_lb
- 32.6
- h1_realized_gold_USD_oz
- 4772
- 2026_09_30_YTD
内容を開く
- 状態
company_reported_production_only_not_IFRS_income_statement
- consolidated_plus_attributable_JV_copper_kt
- 436.9
- group_copper_sales_kt_including_Zaldivar_50pct
- 438.5
- gold_production_koz
- 137.1
- molybdenum_production_kt
- 9
- mine_copper_production_kt
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 213.1
- Centinela_total
- 143.9
- Centinela_concentrates
- 102
- Centinela_cathodes
- 41.9
- Antucoya
- 55.8
- Zaldivar_attributable_50pct
- 24.1
- mine_copper_sales_kt
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
- 214.1
- Centinela_concentrates
- 102.8
- Centinela_cathodes
- 40.7
- Antucoya
- 56.4
- Zaldivar_50pct
- 24.5
- mine_molybdenum_prod_kt
- Los_Pelambres
- 6.7
- Centinela
- 2.3
- mine_gold_prod_koz
- Los_Pelambres
- 37.1
- Centinela
- 100
- year_to_date_realized_copper_price_USD_lb
- 6.43
- year_to_date_realized_molybdenum_price_USD_lb
- 33.5
- year_to_date_realized_gold_price_USD_oz
- 4561
- average_chilean_pesos_per_usd_2026_YTD
- 906
- preliminary_pricing_adjustment_2026_YTD_copper_USDm
- 274.6
- preliminary_pricing_adjustment_2026_YTD_molybdenum_USDm
- 103
- year_to_date_2026_copper_unit_cash_cost_before_byproduct_USD_lb
- 2.81
- 2026_guidance_copper_kt_min_max
- 1
- 625
- 2
- 655
- 2027_guidance_copper_kt_min_max
- 1
- 630
- 2
- 690
- 2026_guidance_consolidated_capex_USDm_excluding_Zaldivar
- 3400
- 2027_capex_guidance_not_issued_at_cutoff
- はい
- ore_reserves_2025_12_31
内容を開く
- 状態
JORC_2012_company_annual_reserves_estimate_NOT_total_mineral_resources
- million_tonnes_100pct_for_consolidated_sites
- Los_Pelambres
- 715.7
- Centinela
- 2505.2
- Antucoya
- 711.5
- Zaldivar_million_tonnes_100pct_JV
- 353.6
- group_total_million_tonnes_including_100pct_JV
- 4286.1
- proportionate_attributable_total_million_tonnes
- 2858
- reserve_conversion_contingent_on_permits_water_tailings_capex
- はい
- distributions_to_2026_11_06
- 1
内容を開く
- instrument
ordinary
- financial_period
FY2025 final
- declaration_status
reported
- ex_date
2026-04-16
- record_date
2026-04-17
- payment_date
2026-05-11
- cash_per_share_USD
- 0.48
- equivalent_GBP_per_share
- 0.355766
- total_company_cash_paid_USDm
- 473.3
- included_in_post_2026_11_06_timed_cashflows
- いいえ
- already_in_2026_H1_reported_book_equity
- はい
- 2
内容を開く
- instrument
ordinary
- financial_period
H1 2026 interim
- declaration_status
reported
- ex_date
2026-09-03
- record_date
2026-09-04
- payment_date
2026-09-30
- cash_per_share_USD
- 0.301
- total_company_cash_paid_USDm
- 296.742865
- included_in_post_2026_11_06_timed_cashflows
- いいえ
- deducted_once_in_June30_to_Nov06_equity_bridge
- はい
- sbc
内容を開く
- reporting_policy
cash_settled_phantom_performance_share_awards_recognized_as_LIABILITY_and_annual_PnL_expense
- equity_settled_shares_in_current_policy
- 0
- cash_settled_expense_for_H1_2026_separately_reconciled_USDm
- 未確認
- 理由
2026 interim report does not separately identify a robust standalone phantom award expense matching full statutory PnL; future forecast uses transparent explicit assumption, actual parent PnL already includes recorded cost
- share_register
内容を開く
- ordinary_shares
- 985856695
- ordinary_shares_status
2026 half-year EPS disclosure and issuer share information (post-H1 to cutoff share-change verification incomplete)
- treasury_shares_asof_2026_11_06
- 未確認
- employee_trust_owned_shares_asof_2026_11_06
- 未確認
- forecast_treasury_or_trust_shares_2026_11_06_assumption
- 0
- source_company_new_buyback_completed_by_2026_11_06
- 未確認
- current_cash_settled_staff_awards_do_not_issue_ordinary_shares
- はい
- corporate_control
- Luksic_group_related_two_major_stakes_percent_2025
- 64.92
- minority_rights_at_mines_vs_ordinary_shareholder_freely_float
40pct LP, 30pct Centinela and Antucoya are subsidiary NCI, not London listed ordinary shares
- chilean_mining_policy
- mining_specific_taxes
income taxes plus ad-valorem royalty already modeled as expense; no second separate shareholder levy
- desalination_and_water
Los Pelambres desal expansion to 800 litres/second under construction; Zaldivar water pipeline $0.9bn approved and JV financing assumed
- currency_primary_revenue_USD
USD copper, gold, molybdenum; Chilean peso operating exposure; reporting USD and listing GBP
- decommissioning_restoration_provision_group_2026_06_30_USDm
- 556.1
- balance_sheet_bridge_to_cutoff
内容を開く
- from_date
2026-06-30
- cutoff_date
2026-11-06
- basis
company_reported_halfyear_plus_scenario_independent_2026_H2_model_proxy_to_asof; 2026Q3 IFRS P&L and November balances NOT published
- reported_2026_06_30_parent_equity_USDm
- 10752.5
- estimated_2026_07_01_to_11_06_parent_profit_USDm
- 1060.095339
- 2026_09_30_reported_interim_dividend_paid_USDm
- 296.742865
- estimated_asof_parent_equity_USDm
- 11515.852474
- reported_2026_06_30_NCI_equity_USDm
- 4330.9
- estimated_2026_07_01_to_11_06_NCI_profit_USDm
- 585.388715
- unverified_assumed_NCI_interim_cash_payout_USDm
- 100
- estimated_asof_NCI_equity_USDm
- 4816.288715
- estimated_asof_group_equity_USDm
- 16332.141189
- estimated_asof_parent_attributable_net_debt_USDm
- 2551.547558
- estimated_asof_consolidated_net_debt_USDm
- 3549.280594
- parent_equity_book_oku
- 86.248146
- parent_attributable_net_debt_oku
- 19.109853
- NCI_book_oku
- 36.071665
- forecasting_days
- H2_total_2026
- 184
- pre_cutoff_2026_07_01_through_11_06
- 129
- post_cutoff_2026_11_07_through_12_31
- 55
- cash_flow_bridge_method
CFO_parent=attributable_IFRS_profit + attributable_DA - attributable_actual_maintenance_and_growth_capex - working_capital - equity_method_PnL + actual_dividends_from_associates - equity_funding_for_JV; minority dividend and company dividend are financing outlays
- 状態
ESTIMATED_not_reported_asof_2026_11_06
- start_2026_11_06_estimated_parent_equity_oku
- 86.248146
- start_2026_11_06_estimated_nci_equity_oku
- 36.071665
- start_2026_11_06_estimated_parent_attributable_net_debt_oku
- 19.109853
- start_2026_11_06_estimated_consolidated_net_debt_oku
- 26.582389
- parent_attributable_net_debt_2026_H1_company_APM_USDm_proven
- 2711.8
- historical_2026_H1_site_level_debt_and_cash_ownership_audit
内容を開く
- source_URL
https://prod.antofagasta.co.uk/media/4972/20260813_antofagasta-hy26-aug26-vf.pdf
- company_document_page
- 58
- pdf_zero_based_page
- 57
- model_or_observed
observed_H1_2026_company_nonIFRS_APM_not_balance_sheet_debt_consolidation
- reported_attributable_cash_USDm
- 3378.9
- reported_attributable_borrowings_USDm
- 6090.7
- reported_attributable_net_debt_USDm
- 2711.8
- sum_formula
[3039*0.60+2470.1*0.70+262.9*0.70+2353.9+0.3] - [1234*0.60+719*0.70+239.8*0.70+1929.4+37.9] = 2711.84 US$m (rounded source rows; report rounds to 2711.8)
- asset_financing_by_site_USDm
内容を開く
- Los_Pelambres
内容を開く
- ownership
- 0.6
- cash_gross
- 1234
- borrowings_gross
- 3039
- cash_parent
- 740.4
- borrowings_parent
- 1823.4
- parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm
- 1083
- parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm
- 1083
- Centinela
内容を開く
- ownership
- 0.7
- cash_gross
- 719
- borrowings_gross
- 2470.1
- cash_parent
- 503.3
- borrowings_parent
- 1729.1
- parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm
- 1225.8
- parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm
- 1225.77
- Antucoya
内容を開く
- ownership
- 0.7
- cash_gross
- 239.8
- borrowings_gross
- 262.9
- cash_parent
- 167.9
- borrowings_parent
- 184
- parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm
- 16.1
- parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm
- 16.17
- Corporate
内容を開く
- ownership
- 1
- cash_gross
- 1929.4
- borrowings_gross
- 2353.9
- cash_parent
- 1929.4
- borrowings_parent
- 2353.9
- parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm
- 424.5
- parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm
- 424.5
- Transport
内容を開く
- ownership
- 1
- cash_gross
- 37.9
- borrowings_gross
- 0.3
- cash_parent
- 37.9
- borrowings_parent
- 0.3
- parent_net_debt_from_rounded_lines_USDm
- -37.6
- parent_net_debt_from_full_precision_proportional_formula_USDm
- -37.6
- consolidated_borrowings_USDm
- 8126.2
- consolidated_cash_USDm
- 4160.1
- difference_NCI_share_of_net_debt_USDm
- 1254.3
- JV_Zaldivar_50pct_finance_not_consolidated
- はい
- noncontrolling_interests_once_assets_and_liabilities
- はい
- transport_cash_and_debt_in_attributable_balance_100pct
- はい
- no_double_subtraction_of_NCI_debt_from_parent_only_FCFF
- はい
- forecast_2036_attributable_debt_is_not_reported
- はい
追加データ・検証記録
分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。
分析に使用した資料
- company_primary
- company_primary
- company_primary
- company_primary
- company_primary
- exchange_primary
- market_independent_crosscheck
- FX_secondary_market
- market_primary
- Antofagasta H1 2026 PDF, p35 segment, p46 associate, p58 attributable debt 2026-08-13
- Transport Division performance and business description 2026-11-06_or_earlier