AI 銘柄分析 · 10年

British American Tobacco plc

BATS · GBP · 分析基準日 2026-11-06

価格転嫁・現金創出力と無煙化への移行が評価を支える一方、規制・訴訟・為替・ハイブリッド分配・希薄化を分離した10年普通株主評価

10年期待年率4.42%

資本コスト9.80%

直近終値45.67 GBP2026-11-06

AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。

分析の要約

紙巻き数量の減少と価格転嫁、無煙製品への移行、規制・訴訟を5ケースで評価。親会社利益からハイブリッド資本への分配を区別し、自己株買いへの比例応募と従業員株式の希薄化を反映。2026年11月6日の株数は10月末発行株と2025年末の信託株に基づく代理値で、確定値ではありません。将来の配当や還元、訴訟・税負担は仮定です。

事業

説明

米国Newport/Camelなどの紙巻、Vuse電子たばこ、glo加熱式、Veloモダンオーラル、Grizzly等伝統オーラル。地域別の価格・数量・通貨・訴訟リスクを分離。

2025_FY_audited_issuer_category_sales_m

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combustibles: 20201
modern_oral: 1165
vapour: 1542
heated: 914
traditional_oral: 1043
other: 745
total: 25610

2026_H1_actual_issuer_category_sales_m

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combustibles: 9561
modern_oral: 784
vapour: 763
heated: 381
traditional_oral: 494
other: 252
total: 12235

2026_H1_actual_by_region_category_m

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combustibles

United_States: 4383
Americas_Europe: 3345
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 1833

modern_oral

United_States: 315
Americas_Europe: 440
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 29

vapour

United_States: 501
Americas_Europe: 235
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 27

heated

United_States: 0
Americas_Europe: 199
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 182

traditional_oral

United_States: 477
Americas_Europe: 17
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 0

other

United_States: 11
Americas_Europe: 166
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 75

2026_H1_actual_region_total_m

United_States: 5687
Americas_Europe: 4402
Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa: 2146

H1_actual_physical_volumes

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combustibles_sticks_billion: 218
OTP_sticks_equivalent_billion: 5
vapour_units_million: 263
modern_oral_pouches_billion: 7.9
heated_sticks_billion: 8.9
traditional_oral_stick_equivalent_billion: 2.5

FY2026_estimates_in_model

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category_sales_m

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combustibles: 19950
modern_oral: 1640
vapour: 1590
heated: 810
traditional_oral: 1010
other: 750

estimated_total_sales_m

25750

estimated_FY2026_operating_profit_m

8900

2026_H2_sales_forecast_m

13515

competitive_advantage

Price/mix and route-to-market scale, nicotine product distribution, international brand portfolio; category adoption is not regulatory guarantee.

risks

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1: US FDA menthol and nicotine standard rulemaking plus illicit vapour market
2: Canadian settlement provision + U.S. smoking injury and product litigation
3: Smoke-free gross margins and reinvestment/marketing requirement
4: FX: USD/GBP and emerging markets translation; litigation cash dates
5: Corporate borrowing costs/refinancing; hybrid equity coupons below IFRS profit
6: Long-run combustible volume decline and terminal reinvestment
7: Cash distributions from equity-accounted associates (ITC/Organigram etc.) not identical to P&L associate share

競争力・事業の質

score: 0.59
brand_and_distribution: 0.86
regulatory_safety: 0.22
financial_risk: 0.54
reinvestment_economics: 0.7
why: Stronger repeat-purchase tobacco cash generation, but material regulatory/health/legal/FX and legacy brand risks.

業界と環境

classification

Tobacco and nicotine products

volume_paper_sticks_vs_pricing

Product-level physical units × unit GBP price/mix × geography weighted exchange translation; combustible volume declines are scenario-dependent.

new_categories

1: Vapour
2: Heated
3: Modern Oral

traditional

1: Combustibles
2: Traditional Oral

associate_underwriting

Equity-accounted investments recognised in IFRS NI; FCFE adjusts accounting profit to cash dividends without double counting.

財務・資本配分

2025_FY_fact

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as_of: 2025-12-31
ordinary_equity_oku: 460.33
perpetual_hybrid_equity_oku: 18.93
NCI_equity_oku: 2.19
consolidated_equity_oku: 481.45
owners_profit_m: 7764
hybrid_gross_coupons_m: 64
hybrid_coupon_tax_relief_m: 16
hybrid_redemption_loss_m: 39
ordinary_profit_for_basic_EPS_m: 7677
ordinary_earnings_bridge_formula: 7764−(64−16)−39=7677 GBPm; hybrid principal and NCI equity NOT included in ordinary equity

2026_H1_issuer_fact

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revenue_m: 12235
operating_profit_m: 4266
finance_net_m: -403
associates_profit_m: 189
profit_before_tax_m: 4052
income_tax_m: -824
net_profit_m: 3228
NCI_profit_m: 38
parent_profit_m: 3190
hybrid_coupon_accrual_m: 38
hybrid_tax_credit_m: 10
ordinary_earnings_m: 3162
ordinary_equity_m: 46486
hybrid_equity_m: 1893
NCI_equity_m: 216
group_equity_m: 48595
reported_net_debt_m: 32555
adjusted_net_debt_m: 31969
employee_share_equity_credit_m: 41
ESOT_purchase_m: 102
share_buybacks_m: 649
ordinary_dividends_m: 2634
hybrid_coupon_paid_m: 6
hybrid_coupon_paid_tax_relief_m: 1

2026_H1_reported_IFRS_ordinary_profit_bridge

3190m parent IFRS earnings − (38m hybrid accrual coupon −10m hybrid tax relief) =3162m ordinary EPS earnings; H1 paid cash coupon only 6m and tax+1m reflected in book changes, different dates.

2026_H1_to_basis_estimate

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source_start_date

2026-06-30

endpoint

2026-11-06

状態

analyst_bridge_unreported_Jul_to_Nov_2026

H2_full_company_guideline_assumption_m

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revenue_m: 13515
operating_profit_m: 4634
finance_net_m: -840
associates_profit_m: 160
NCI_profit_m: 35
hybrid_coupon_net_m: 28
税率: 24.50%
DandA_m: 1250
capex_m: 405
WC_increase_m: 180
SBC_equity_credit_m: 42
SBC_cash_cost_m: 3.5
extra_legal_cash_m: 160
associate_cash_dividend_m: 105
associate_earnings_m: 160
profit_before_tax_m: 3954
tax_m: -968.73
parent_earnings_m: 2950.27
ordinary_earnings_m: 2922.27
fcfe_parent_before_distribution_m: 3414.27

H2_pre_basis_fraction

0.70108695652174

ordinary_dividends_company_paid_Aug14_and_Nov6_m

2640.2704250928

market_buyback_spending_Jul_to_Nov6_estimate_m

545

employee_trust_spending_Jul_to_Nov6_assumed_m

OCI_assumption_m

130

employee_subscription_proceeds_assumption_m

1.5

basis_common_equity_proxy_oku

454.724406

basis_net_debt_proxy_oku

334.730703

basis_perpetual_hybrid_equity_oku

18.93

注記

2026-Oct30 float used as proxy; H2 July-Nov prebasis buyback cash reflected in estimated book/debt only, NOT further share cancellation from 10/30 voting shares and NOT received by 11/06 new holder.

hybrid_accounting

Perpetual debt-like securities accounted as equity; coupons are owner appropriation. GAAP parent earnings are after ordinary financing expense but before hybrid appropriation. Do not treat hybrid coupon as bank debt interest and do not deduct hybrid principal again from common earnings-derived terminal.

net_debt_definition

2026-H1 IFRS 32,555m GBP includes group debt of loans and cash/derivative offsets; adjusted company leverage debt 31,969m non-IFRS is separately disclosed. Forecast consolidated debt includes outside NCI cash dividend AND equal NCI FCFE from those assets; retained NCI profit reinvested (assumed), so NCI cash net is zero rather than falsely counting NCI distributions as ordinary holder receipts.

historic_employees

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2025_equity_SBC_PnL_expense_m: 83
2025_cash_settled_SBC_PnL_expense_m: 7
2025_year_end_ESOT_shares: 5812588
2025_year_end_other_treasury_shares: 132988352
2026_H1_equity_service_credit_m: 41
2026_H1_employee_trust_buyback_m: 102
2026_H1_company_share_buybacks_cancelled_m: 649
future_trust_replenishment_cash_assumed_m: 0

future_share_accounting

Initial trust 2025 proxy: old cohort is voting float minus the stale employee trust proxy, which waived dividend. New employee grants delivered first from trust (no new issue), then newly issued (dilution); SBC is expensed and offset by equity credit in book; no further trust market-price replenishment. If trust must continue repurchase, results are sensitive and cannot assume this at no cost.

評価の前提と確認

market_cap_on_all_voting_ex_treasury_oku: 984.175239
market_value_old_eligible_cohort_oku: 981.52063
ex_treasury_share_count_not_twice_deducted: はい
shares_issuer_gross_minus_treasury_equals_voting_float: はい
basis_shares_equals_issuer_voting_float_minus_dated_trust_proxy: はい
basis_initial_cost_equals_basis_shares_x_basis_price: はい
as_of_midyear_equity_does_not_equal_model_nov_proxy: Issuer H1 book to baseline bridge explicit assumption
FY2025_USD_64460m_legacy_US_equity_invalid_as_ordinary_GBP: はい
historical_USD_conversion_note: 2025 closing USD/GBP1.345; converted 64460mUSD corresponds approximately 47925.65mGBP but is NOT the 46033mGBP ordinary capital; do not force through FX without source/class adjustment.
valuation_terminal_is_not_market_PE_or_PB: はい
2026_11_06_declared_dividend_ex_date_pre_baseline_excluded: はい
2036_end_exact_date: 2036-11-06
2036_full_FY_info_not_used_to_add_Dec_income_or_dividend: はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト: 9.80%
事業の質: 0.59
why: Nominal GBP ordinary equity required rate 9.8% is analyst assumption for duration, litigation, regulation, capital risk; not derived from observed market multiples
probability_discounting: Each scenario PV discounted at same k, E[IRR] defined as IRR of probability-weighted dated holder CFs (not arithmetic mean scenario IRRs).

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

シナリオ	確率	株主還元・追加負担	終価
非常に強気	10.0%	865.74	1,791.83
強気	20.0%	788.81	1,221.70
中立	40.0%	674.93	728.18
弱気	20.0%	414.65	187.93
厳しい弱気	10.0%	129.22	0.00