AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
British American Tobacco plc
BATS · GBP · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
価格転嫁・現金創出力と無煙化への移行が評価を支える一方、規制・訴訟・為替・ハイブリッド分配・希薄化を分離した10年普通株主評価
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
紙巻き数量の減少と価格転嫁、無煙製品への移行、規制・訴訟を5ケースで評価。親会社利益からハイブリッド資本への分配を区別し、自己株買いへの比例応募と従業員株式の希薄化を反映。2026年11月6日の株数は10月末発行株と2025年末の信託株に基づく代理値で、確定値ではありません。将来の配当や還元、訴訟・税負担は仮定です。
事業
- 説明
米国Newport/Camelなどの紙巻、Vuse電子たばこ、glo加熱式、Veloモダンオーラル、Grizzly等伝統オーラル。地域別の価格・数量・通貨・訴訟リスクを分離。
- 2025_FY_audited_issuer_category_sales_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- 20201
- modern_oral
- 1165
- vapour
- 1542
- heated
- 914
- traditional_oral
- 1043
- other
- 745
- total
- 25610
- 2026_H1_actual_issuer_category_sales_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- 9561
- modern_oral
- 784
- vapour
- 763
- heated
- 381
- traditional_oral
- 494
- other
- 252
- total
- 12235
- 2026_H1_actual_by_region_category_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- United_States
- 4383
- Americas_Europe
- 3345
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 1833
- modern_oral
- United_States
- 315
- Americas_Europe
- 440
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 29
- vapour
- United_States
- 501
- Americas_Europe
- 235
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 27
- heated
- United_States
- 0
- Americas_Europe
- 199
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 182
- traditional_oral
- United_States
- 477
- Americas_Europe
- 17
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 0
- other
- United_States
- 11
- Americas_Europe
- 166
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 75
- 2026_H1_actual_region_total_m
- United_States
- 5687
- Americas_Europe
- 4402
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 2146
- H1_actual_physical_volumes
内容を開く
- combustibles_sticks_billion
- 218
- OTP_sticks_equivalent_billion
- 5
- vapour_units_million
- 263
- modern_oral_pouches_billion
- 7.9
- heated_sticks_billion
- 8.9
- traditional_oral_stick_equivalent_billion
- 2.5
- FY2026_estimates_in_model
内容を開く
- category_sales_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- 19950
- modern_oral
- 1640
- vapour
- 1590
- heated
- 810
- traditional_oral
- 1010
- other
- 750
- estimated_total_sales_m
- 25750
- estimated_FY2026_operating_profit_m
- 8900
- 2026_H2_sales_forecast_m
- 13515
- competitive_advantage
Price/mix and route-to-market scale, nicotine product distribution, international brand portfolio; category adoption is not regulatory guarantee.
- risks
内容を開く
- 1
US FDA menthol and nicotine standard rulemaking plus illicit vapour market
- 2
Canadian settlement provision + U.S. smoking injury and product litigation
- 3
Smoke-free gross margins and reinvestment/marketing requirement
- 4
FX: USD/GBP and emerging markets translation; litigation cash dates
- 5
Corporate borrowing costs/refinancing; hybrid equity coupons below IFRS profit
- 6
Long-run combustible volume decline and terminal reinvestment
- 7
Cash distributions from equity-accounted associates (ITC/Organigram etc.) not identical to P&L associate share
競争力・事業の質
- score
- 0.59
- brand_and_distribution
- 0.86
- regulatory_safety
- 0.22
- financial_risk
- 0.54
- reinvestment_economics
- 0.7
- why
Stronger repeat-purchase tobacco cash generation, but material regulatory/health/legal/FX and legacy brand risks.
業界と環境
- classification
Tobacco and nicotine products
- volume_paper_sticks_vs_pricing
Product-level physical units × unit GBP price/mix × geography weighted exchange translation; combustible volume declines are scenario-dependent.
- new_categories
- 1
Vapour
- 2
Heated
- 3
Modern Oral
- traditional
- 1
Combustibles
- 2
Traditional Oral
- associate_underwriting
Equity-accounted investments recognised in IFRS NI; FCFE adjusts accounting profit to cash dividends without double counting.
財務・資本配分
- 2025_FY_fact
内容を開く
- as_of
2025-12-31
- ordinary_equity_oku
- 460.33
- perpetual_hybrid_equity_oku
- 18.93
- NCI_equity_oku
- 2.19
- consolidated_equity_oku
- 481.45
- owners_profit_m
- 7764
- hybrid_gross_coupons_m
- 64
- hybrid_coupon_tax_relief_m
- 16
- hybrid_redemption_loss_m
- 39
- ordinary_profit_for_basic_EPS_m
- 7677
- ordinary_earnings_bridge_formula
7764−(64−16)−39=7677 GBPm; hybrid principal and NCI equity NOT included in ordinary equity
- 2026_H1_issuer_fact
内容を開く
- revenue_m
- 12235
- operating_profit_m
- 4266
- finance_net_m
- -403
- associates_profit_m
- 189
- profit_before_tax_m
- 4052
- income_tax_m
- -824
- net_profit_m
- 3228
- NCI_profit_m
- 38
- parent_profit_m
- 3190
- hybrid_coupon_accrual_m
- 38
- hybrid_tax_credit_m
- 10
- ordinary_earnings_m
- 3162
- ordinary_equity_m
- 46486
- hybrid_equity_m
- 1893
- NCI_equity_m
- 216
- group_equity_m
- 48595
- reported_net_debt_m
- 32555
- adjusted_net_debt_m
- 31969
- employee_share_equity_credit_m
- 41
- ESOT_purchase_m
- 102
- share_buybacks_m
- 649
- ordinary_dividends_m
- 2634
- hybrid_coupon_paid_m
- 6
- hybrid_coupon_paid_tax_relief_m
- 1
- 2026_H1_reported_IFRS_ordinary_profit_bridge
3190m parent IFRS earnings − (38m hybrid accrual coupon −10m hybrid tax relief) =3162m ordinary EPS earnings; H1 paid cash coupon only 6m and tax+1m reflected in book changes, different dates.
- 2026_H1_to_basis_estimate
内容を開く
- source_start_date
2026-06-30
- endpoint
2026-11-06
- 状態
analyst_bridge_unreported_Jul_to_Nov_2026
- H2_full_company_guideline_assumption_m
内容を開く
- revenue_m
- 13515
- operating_profit_m
- 4634
- finance_net_m
- -840
- associates_profit_m
- 160
- NCI_profit_m
- 35
- hybrid_coupon_net_m
- 28
- 税率
- 24.50%
- DandA_m
- 1250
- capex_m
- 405
- WC_increase_m
- 180
- SBC_equity_credit_m
- 42
- SBC_cash_cost_m
- 3.5
- extra_legal_cash_m
- 160
- associate_cash_dividend_m
- 105
- associate_earnings_m
- 160
- profit_before_tax_m
- 3954
- tax_m
- -968.73
- parent_earnings_m
- 2950.27
- ordinary_earnings_m
- 2922.27
- fcfe_parent_before_distribution_m
- 3414.27
- H2_pre_basis_fraction
- 0.70108695652174
- ordinary_dividends_company_paid_Aug14_and_Nov6_m
- 2640.2704250928
- market_buyback_spending_Jul_to_Nov6_estimate_m
- 545
- employee_trust_spending_Jul_to_Nov6_assumed_m
- 38
- OCI_assumption_m
- 130
- employee_subscription_proceeds_assumption_m
- 1.5
- basis_common_equity_proxy_oku
- 454.724406
- basis_net_debt_proxy_oku
- 334.730703
- basis_perpetual_hybrid_equity_oku
- 18.93
- 注記
2026-Oct30 float used as proxy; H2 July-Nov prebasis buyback cash reflected in estimated book/debt only, NOT further share cancellation from 10/30 voting shares and NOT received by 11/06 new holder.
- hybrid_accounting
Perpetual debt-like securities accounted as equity; coupons are owner appropriation. GAAP parent earnings are after ordinary financing expense but before hybrid appropriation. Do not treat hybrid coupon as bank debt interest and do not deduct hybrid principal again from common earnings-derived terminal.
- net_debt_definition
2026-H1 IFRS 32,555m GBP includes group debt of loans and cash/derivative offsets; adjusted company leverage debt 31,969m non-IFRS is separately disclosed. Forecast consolidated debt includes outside NCI cash dividend AND equal NCI FCFE from those assets; retained NCI profit reinvested (assumed), so NCI cash net is zero rather than falsely counting NCI distributions as ordinary holder receipts.
- historic_employees
内容を開く
- 2025_equity_SBC_PnL_expense_m
- 83
- 2025_cash_settled_SBC_PnL_expense_m
- 7
- 2025_year_end_ESOT_shares
- 5812588
- 2025_year_end_other_treasury_shares
- 132988352
- 2026_H1_equity_service_credit_m
- 41
- 2026_H1_employee_trust_buyback_m
- 102
- 2026_H1_company_share_buybacks_cancelled_m
- 649
- future_trust_replenishment_cash_assumed_m
- 0
- future_share_accounting
Initial trust 2025 proxy: old cohort is voting float minus the stale employee trust proxy, which waived dividend. New employee grants delivered first from trust (no new issue), then newly issued (dilution); SBC is expensed and offset by equity credit in book; no further trust market-price replenishment. If trust must continue repurchase, results are sensitive and cannot assume this at no cost.
評価の前提と確認
- market_cap_on_all_voting_ex_treasury_oku
- 984.175239
- market_value_old_eligible_cohort_oku
- 981.52063
- ex_treasury_share_count_not_twice_deducted
- はい
- shares_issuer_gross_minus_treasury_equals_voting_float
- はい
- basis_shares_equals_issuer_voting_float_minus_dated_trust_proxy
- はい
- basis_initial_cost_equals_basis_shares_x_basis_price
- はい
- as_of_midyear_equity_does_not_equal_model_nov_proxy
Issuer H1 book to baseline bridge explicit assumption
- FY2025_USD_64460m_legacy_US_equity_invalid_as_ordinary_GBP
- はい
- historical_USD_conversion_note
2025 closing USD/GBP1.345; converted 64460mUSD corresponds approximately 47925.65mGBP but is NOT the 46033mGBP ordinary capital; do not force through FX without source/class adjustment.
- valuation_terminal_is_not_market_PE_or_PB
- はい
- 2026_11_06_declared_dividend_ex_date_pre_baseline_excluded
- はい
- 2036_end_exact_date
2036-11-06
- 2036_full_FY_info_not_used_to_add_Dec_income_or_dividend
- はい
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 9.80%
- 事業の質
- 0.59
- why
Nominal GBP ordinary equity required rate 9.8% is analyst assumption for duration, litigation, regulation, capital risk; not derived from observed market multiples
- probability_discounting
Each scenario PV discounted at same k, E[IRR] defined as IRR of probability-weighted dated holder CFs (not arithmetic mean scenario IRRs).
事業別データ
- 1
内容を開く
- id
combustibles
- 名称
紙巻きたばこ・OTP
- 数量の単位
billion sticks equivalent (Cigarettes/OTP)
- 基準時点
内容を開く
- 数量
- 440
- 価格・単価
- 45.3409091
- 単価の単位
million_GBP_per_volume_unit
- 売上高
- 199.5
- 営業利益
- 103.74
- reported_H1_2026_sales_oku
- 95.61
- 方法
segment op means pre-corporate contribution, not BAT reported IFRS segment operating profit; reconcile from sum contributions minus corp/cash+equity SBC/regulatory overhead to group IFRS EBIT.
- 2
内容を開く
- id
modern_oral
- 名称
モダンオーラル Velo
- 数量の単位
billion pouches
- 基準時点
内容を開く
- 数量
- 17.5
- 価格・単価
- 93.7142857
- 単価の単位
million_GBP_per_volume_unit
- 売上高
- 16.4
- 営業利益
- 4.1
- reported_H1_2026_sales_oku
- 7.84
- 方法
segment op means pre-corporate contribution, not BAT reported IFRS segment operating profit; reconcile from sum contributions minus corp/cash+equity SBC/regulatory overhead to group IFRS EBIT.
- 3
内容を開く
- id
vapour
- 名称
電子たばこ Vuse
- 数量の単位
million units
- 基準時点
内容を開く
- 数量
- 535
- 価格・単価
- 2.9719626
- 単価の単位
million_GBP_per_volume_unit
- 売上高
- 15.9
- 営業利益
- 2.544
- reported_H1_2026_sales_oku
- 7.63
- 方法
segment op means pre-corporate contribution, not BAT reported IFRS segment operating profit; reconcile from sum contributions minus corp/cash+equity SBC/regulatory overhead to group IFRS EBIT.
- 4
内容を開く
- id
heated
- 名称
加熱式 glo
- 数量の単位
billion heated sticks
- 基準時点
内容を開く
- 数量
- 19.3
- 価格・単価
- 41.9689119
- 単価の単位
million_GBP_per_volume_unit
- 売上高
- 8.1
- 営業利益
- 0.972
- reported_H1_2026_sales_oku
- 3.81
- 方法
segment op means pre-corporate contribution, not BAT reported IFRS segment operating profit; reconcile from sum contributions minus corp/cash+equity SBC/regulatory overhead to group IFRS EBIT.
- 5
内容を開く
- id
traditional_oral
- 名称
伝統オーラル
- 数量の単位
billion stick equivalents
- 基準時点
内容を開く
- 数量
- 5.15
- 価格・単価
- 196.1165049
- 単価の単位
million_GBP_per_volume_unit
- 売上高
- 10.1
- 営業利益
- 5.555
- reported_H1_2026_sales_oku
- 4.94
- 方法
segment op means pre-corporate contribution, not BAT reported IFRS segment operating profit; reconcile from sum contributions minus corp/cash+equity SBC/regulatory overhead to group IFRS EBIT.
- 6
内容を開く
- id
other
- 名称
その他
- 数量の単位
revenue index (FY2026=100)
- 基準時点
内容を開く
- 数量
- 100
- 価格・単価
- 7.5
- 単価の単位
million_GBP_per_volume_unit
- 売上高
- 7.5
- 営業利益
- 1.5
- reported_H1_2026_sales_oku
- 2.52
- 方法
segment op means pre-corporate contribution, not BAT reported IFRS segment operating profit; reconcile from sum contributions minus corp/cash+equity SBC/regulatory overhead to group IFRS EBIT.
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非常に強気 | 10.0% | 865.74 | 1,791.83 |
| 強気 | 20.0% | 788.81 | 1,221.70 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 674.93 | 728.18 |
| 弱気 | 20.0% | 414.65 | 187.93 |
| 厳しい弱気 | 10.0% | 129.22 | 0.00 |
非常に強気（確率 10.0%）
無煙製品の高収益化が市場想定より進み規制競争に優位
確率の根拠
Analyst subjective scenario probability (not issuer data).
強気（確率 20.0%）
無煙カテゴリー好調、伝統製品の価格転嫁力維持、負債軽減が進む
確率の根拠
Analyst subjective scenario probability (not issuer data).
中立（確率 40.0%）
紙巻き数量は減るが値上げで緩衝、無煙化進展、地域・規制が概ね均衡
確率の根拠
Analyst subjective scenario probability (not issuer data).
弱気（確率 20.0%）
紙巻き数量減が加速、New Categories伸びは限定的、追加規制費用・相応の減配
確率の根拠
Analyst subjective scenario probability (not issuer data).
厳しい弱気（確率 10.0%）
米国規制・訴訟・違法電子たばこ流入、紙巻数量急減、価格転嫁不発、New Categories失速
確率の根拠
Analyst subjective scenario probability (not issuer data).
単位の説明
- monetary
oku GBP (億GBP) unless explicitly _m GBP; 1 oku GBP = 100 million GBP
- 株数
actual ordinary shares
- rates
decimals
- FX
USD per GBP
事業の詳細
- 説明
米国Newport/Camelなどの紙巻、Vuse電子たばこ、glo加熱式、Veloモダンオーラル、Grizzly等伝統オーラル。地域別の価格・数量・通貨・訴訟リスクを分離。
- 2025_FY_audited_issuer_category_sales_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- 20201
- modern_oral
- 1165
- vapour
- 1542
- heated
- 914
- traditional_oral
- 1043
- other
- 745
- total
- 25610
- 2026_H1_actual_issuer_category_sales_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- 9561
- modern_oral
- 784
- vapour
- 763
- heated
- 381
- traditional_oral
- 494
- other
- 252
- total
- 12235
- 2026_H1_actual_by_region_category_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- United_States
- 4383
- Americas_Europe
- 3345
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 1833
- modern_oral
- United_States
- 315
- Americas_Europe
- 440
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 29
- vapour
- United_States
- 501
- Americas_Europe
- 235
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 27
- heated
- United_States
- 0
- Americas_Europe
- 199
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 182
- traditional_oral
- United_States
- 477
- Americas_Europe
- 17
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 0
- other
- United_States
- 11
- Americas_Europe
- 166
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 75
- 2026_H1_actual_region_total_m
- United_States
- 5687
- Americas_Europe
- 4402
- Asia_Pacific_Middle_East_Africa
- 2146
- H1_actual_physical_volumes
内容を開く
- combustibles_sticks_billion
- 218
- OTP_sticks_equivalent_billion
- 5
- vapour_units_million
- 263
- modern_oral_pouches_billion
- 7.9
- heated_sticks_billion
- 8.9
- traditional_oral_stick_equivalent_billion
- 2.5
- FY2026_estimates_in_model
内容を開く
- category_sales_m
内容を開く
- combustibles
- 19950
- modern_oral
- 1640
- vapour
- 1590
- heated
- 810
- traditional_oral
- 1010
- other
- 750
- estimated_total_sales_m
- 25750
- estimated_FY2026_operating_profit_m
- 8900
- 2026_H2_sales_forecast_m
- 13515
- competitive_advantage
Price/mix and route-to-market scale, nicotine product distribution, international brand portfolio; category adoption is not regulatory guarantee.
- risks
内容を開く
- 1
US FDA menthol and nicotine standard rulemaking plus illicit vapour market
- 2
Canadian settlement provision + U.S. smoking injury and product litigation
- 3
Smoke-free gross margins and reinvestment/marketing requirement
- 4
FX: USD/GBP and emerging markets translation; litigation cash dates
- 5
Corporate borrowing costs/refinancing; hybrid equity coupons below IFRS profit
- 6
Long-run combustible volume decline and terminal reinvestment
- 7
Cash distributions from equity-accounted associates (ITC/Organigram etc.) not identical to P&L associate share
競争力の詳細
- score
- 0.59
- brand_and_distribution
- 0.86
- regulatory_safety
- 0.22
- financial_risk
- 0.54
- reinvestment_economics
- 0.7
- why
Stronger repeat-purchase tobacco cash generation, but material regulatory/health/legal/FX and legacy brand risks.
業界の詳細
- classification
Tobacco and nicotine products
- volume_paper_sticks_vs_pricing
Product-level physical units × unit GBP price/mix × geography weighted exchange translation; combustible volume declines are scenario-dependent.
- new_categories
- 1
Vapour
- 2
Heated
- 3
Modern Oral
- traditional
- 1
Combustibles
- 2
Traditional Oral
- associate_underwriting
Equity-accounted investments recognised in IFRS NI; FCFE adjusts accounting profit to cash dividends without double counting.
財務・資本配分の詳細
- 2025_FY_fact
内容を開く
- as_of
2025-12-31
- ordinary_equity_oku
- 460.33
- perpetual_hybrid_equity_oku
- 18.93
- NCI_equity_oku
- 2.19
- consolidated_equity_oku
- 481.45
- owners_profit_m
- 7764
- hybrid_gross_coupons_m
- 64
- hybrid_coupon_tax_relief_m
- 16
- hybrid_redemption_loss_m
- 39
- ordinary_profit_for_basic_EPS_m
- 7677
- ordinary_earnings_bridge_formula
7764−(64−16)−39=7677 GBPm; hybrid principal and NCI equity NOT included in ordinary equity
- 2026_H1_issuer_fact
内容を開く
- revenue_m
- 12235
- operating_profit_m
- 4266
- finance_net_m
- -403
- associates_profit_m
- 189
- profit_before_tax_m
- 4052
- income_tax_m
- -824
- net_profit_m
- 3228
- NCI_profit_m
- 38
- parent_profit_m
- 3190
- hybrid_coupon_accrual_m
- 38
- hybrid_tax_credit_m
- 10
- ordinary_earnings_m
- 3162
- ordinary_equity_m
- 46486
- hybrid_equity_m
- 1893
- NCI_equity_m
- 216
- group_equity_m
- 48595
- reported_net_debt_m
- 32555
- adjusted_net_debt_m
- 31969
- employee_share_equity_credit_m
- 41
- ESOT_purchase_m
- 102
- share_buybacks_m
- 649
- ordinary_dividends_m
- 2634
- hybrid_coupon_paid_m
- 6
- hybrid_coupon_paid_tax_relief_m
- 1
- 2026_H1_reported_IFRS_ordinary_profit_bridge
3190m parent IFRS earnings − (38m hybrid accrual coupon −10m hybrid tax relief) =3162m ordinary EPS earnings; H1 paid cash coupon only 6m and tax+1m reflected in book changes, different dates.
- 2026_H1_to_basis_estimate
内容を開く
- source_start_date
2026-06-30
- endpoint
2026-11-06
- 状態
analyst_bridge_unreported_Jul_to_Nov_2026
- H2_full_company_guideline_assumption_m
内容を開く
- revenue_m
- 13515
- operating_profit_m
- 4634
- finance_net_m
- -840
- associates_profit_m
- 160
- NCI_profit_m
- 35
- hybrid_coupon_net_m
- 28
- 税率
- 24.50%
- DandA_m
- 1250
- capex_m
- 405
- WC_increase_m
- 180
- SBC_equity_credit_m
- 42
- SBC_cash_cost_m
- 3.5
- extra_legal_cash_m
- 160
- associate_cash_dividend_m
- 105
- associate_earnings_m
- 160
- profit_before_tax_m
- 3954
- tax_m
- -968.73
- parent_earnings_m
- 2950.27
- ordinary_earnings_m
- 2922.27
- fcfe_parent_before_distribution_m
- 3414.27
- H2_pre_basis_fraction
- 0.70108695652174
- ordinary_dividends_company_paid_Aug14_and_Nov6_m
- 2640.2704250928
- market_buyback_spending_Jul_to_Nov6_estimate_m
- 545
- employee_trust_spending_Jul_to_Nov6_assumed_m
- 38
- OCI_assumption_m
- 130
- employee_subscription_proceeds_assumption_m
- 1.5
- basis_common_equity_proxy_oku
- 454.724406
- basis_net_debt_proxy_oku
- 334.730703
- basis_perpetual_hybrid_equity_oku
- 18.93
- 注記
2026-Oct30 float used as proxy; H2 July-Nov prebasis buyback cash reflected in estimated book/debt only, NOT further share cancellation from 10/30 voting shares and NOT received by 11/06 new holder.
- hybrid_accounting
Perpetual debt-like securities accounted as equity; coupons are owner appropriation. GAAP parent earnings are after ordinary financing expense but before hybrid appropriation. Do not treat hybrid coupon as bank debt interest and do not deduct hybrid principal again from common earnings-derived terminal.
- net_debt_definition
2026-H1 IFRS 32,555m GBP includes group debt of loans and cash/derivative offsets; adjusted company leverage debt 31,969m non-IFRS is separately disclosed. Forecast consolidated debt includes outside NCI cash dividend AND equal NCI FCFE from those assets; retained NCI profit reinvested (assumed), so NCI cash net is zero rather than falsely counting NCI distributions as ordinary holder receipts.
- historic_employees
内容を開く
- 2025_equity_SBC_PnL_expense_m
- 83
- 2025_cash_settled_SBC_PnL_expense_m
- 7
- 2025_year_end_ESOT_shares
- 5812588
- 2025_year_end_other_treasury_shares
- 132988352
- 2026_H1_equity_service_credit_m
- 41
- 2026_H1_employee_trust_buyback_m
- 102
- 2026_H1_company_share_buybacks_cancelled_m
- 649
- future_trust_replenishment_cash_assumed_m
- 0
- future_share_accounting
Initial trust 2025 proxy: old cohort is voting float minus the stale employee trust proxy, which waived dividend. New employee grants delivered first from trust (no new issue), then newly issued (dilution); SBC is expensed and offset by equity credit in book; no further trust market-price replenishment. If trust must continue repurchase, results are sensitive and cannot assume this at no cost.
評価根拠の詳細
- market_cap_on_all_voting_ex_treasury_oku
- 984.175239
- market_value_old_eligible_cohort_oku
- 981.52063
- ex_treasury_share_count_not_twice_deducted
- はい
- shares_issuer_gross_minus_treasury_equals_voting_float
- はい
- basis_shares_equals_issuer_voting_float_minus_dated_trust_proxy
- はい
- basis_initial_cost_equals_basis_shares_x_basis_price
- はい
- as_of_midyear_equity_does_not_equal_model_nov_proxy
Issuer H1 book to baseline bridge explicit assumption
- FY2025_USD_64460m_legacy_US_equity_invalid_as_ordinary_GBP
- はい
- historical_USD_conversion_note
2025 closing USD/GBP1.345; converted 64460mUSD corresponds approximately 47925.65mGBP but is NOT the 46033mGBP ordinary capital; do not force through FX without source/class adjustment.
- valuation_terminal_is_not_market_PE_or_PB
- はい
- 2026_11_06_declared_dividend_ex_date_pre_baseline_excluded
- はい
- 2036_end_exact_date
2036-11-06
- 2036_full_FY_info_not_used_to_add_Dec_income_or_dividend
- はい
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 45.67
- 単価の単位
GBP per ordinary share
- 株数
- 2149158376
- shares_date
2026-10-30
- shares_definition
Analyst old-holder economic proxy = issuer Oct30 voting float 2,154,970,964 minus dated 2025-Dec31 employee trust 5,812,588 = 2,149,158,376 shares. Treasury already removed once. NOT an issuer-confirmed as-of-Nov6 count.
- issued_gross_shares
- 2287618813
- company_treasury_shares
- 132647849
- issuer_voting_ex_treasury_shares
- 2154970964
- issuer_voting_float_date
2026-10-30
- employee_trust_dated_proxy_shares
- 5812588
- employee_trust_dated_proxy_as_of
2025-12-31
- employee_trust_2026_11_06_confirmed
- 未確認
- initial_old_holder_cohort_shares_after_employee_trust_proxy
- 2149158376
- basis_shares_cohort_scaled_1to1
- はい
- employee_trust_proxy_disclosure_primary_source
https://www.bat.com/content/dam/batcom/global/main-nav/investors-and-reporting/reporting/combined-annual-and-sustainability-report/BAT_Annual_Report_2025.pdf
- 株価の出所
https://markets.ft.markitdigital.com/data/equities/tearsheet/historical?s=BATS%3ALSE
- 株数の出所
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/news/article/BATS/total-voting-rights/0874-d0-f0-db-25-4e6782
- shares_source_employee_trust_component
https://www.bat.com/content/dam/batcom/global/main-nav/investors-and-reporting/reporting/combined-annual-and-sustainability-report/BAT_Annual_Report_2025.pdf
- capitalization_on_voting_ex_treasury_oku
- 984.175239
- basis_shares_times_price_initial_cohort_oku
- 981.52063
- cohort_initial_cost_oku
- 981.52063
- 2026_10_01_to_10_30_confirmed_Sharesave_issue_shares_already_in_float
- 45205
- 2026_10_31_to_11_06_actual_issuer_buyback_quantity
- 未確認
- 2026_10_31_to_11_06_proxy
latest disclosed 2026-10-30 float used unchanged at 2026-11-06; likely intervening activity but not inventable
- ADR_equivalence_note
BATS LSE ordinary GBP, not BTI NYSE ADS USD; no USD share price or ADS ratio in this basis.
- FX_reference
内容を開く
- FY2025_USD_per_GBP_average
- 1.319
- FY2025_USD_per_GBP_closing
- 1.345
- H1_2026_USD_per_GBP_average
- 1.345
- H1_2026_USD_per_GBP_closing
- 1.327
- 2026_11_06_USD_per_GBP_spot_indicative
- 1.3352
- FX_note
Company statements already in GBP. Historical USD inputs must be translated at each date, not one static rate. Future segment FX compounded from base in scenarios, not promised market rates.
追加データ・検証記録
分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。
分析に使用した資料
- BAT Combined Annual and Sustainability Report 2025, financial statements/notes 22,28/shareholder information
- BAT H1 2026 interim financial statements, issuer 6-K filing
- Financial Times London historical prices BATS:LSE
- BAT 2 November 2026 Total Voting Rights covering 30 October
- BAT official quarterly dividends
- BAT issuer archive buyback transactions
- GBP USD Nov6 2026 historic FX data, market indicative
- BAT 2026 Capital Markets Day investor strategy