AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
Marks and Spencer Group plc
MKS · GBP · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
M&S：英国小売とOcadoの10年評価
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
食品・衣料・Ocado Retailの投資と株主CFを5ケースで評価。基準日財務と従業員信託株数は代理値、将来の株式取引と配当は予測。2036年は部分期。
要約の補足
- thesis
Foodの11.9%数量成長・大型店展開、FH&Bの在庫と返品コスト是正、Ocado Retailの自動物流稼働改善を収益源とするが、英国小売の販管費・物流・賃金と£750m投資の収益化を厳しく織り込む。
- facts
2026-11-04発表の26週間IFRS親会社帰属利益£265.8m、親会社資本£3,242.1m、IFRS借入・リース区分とNCI£166.1mを基礎にする。2026-11-06までの財務ブリッジは監査未了の明示的仮定。
- valuation
PER/PBRをアンカーに使わず、2037年持続的親会社CFに将来市場価格での従業員株式補填コストを差し引き、(k-g)で終価を計算。
- caveats
内容を開く
- 1
2026-11-06付会計貸借対照表は未公表。9/26以降の41日分はproxyであり実績でない。
- 2
Employee Benefit Trust 11,557,288株は2026-03-28実績であり11/06持高は未確認。
- 3
Ocado Retailは50対50持分だが会計上連結のため、当該投資を別途持分法価値加算しない。
- 4
将来配当権利日、発行、信託買付、会社買戻しは確定でなく仮定。
- 5
SBCはIFRS利益から戻しているのではなく利益控除済を非現金加算し、株数変化または時価補填を別勘定。
結論の補足
- judgment
事業再建と食品拡張に進捗、衣料・通販配送費と積極投資の回収が評価の核心。資本コスト基準の明示的ケース確率モデル。
- base_case_annual_irr
- 0.04038135298
- probability_weighted_annual_IRR
- -0.00686649801
- probability_weighted_cashflow_xirr
- 0.0413715673
- expected_initial_investment_oku
- 89.63134945
- prob_weighted_10yr_old_cohort_payout_oku
- 17.0951201
- prob_weighted_10yr_terminal_old_cohort_oku
- 113.85424182
- asof_2026_11_06_market_price_gbp
- 4.332
- investment_not_personal_advice
- はい
事業
- report_date
2026-11-04
- underlying_period_end
2026-09-26
- reporting_2026_27_has_53_weeks
- はい
- food
- narrative
英国店舗・フランチャイズ、品質・値頃・新設大型店・物流能力増、Food数量伸長。
- risks
競争的値下げ、賞味期限廃棄、EPR包装税、賃金・NI負担、設備と店舗物流リース。
- fashion_home_beauty
- narrative
店舗＋衣料EC一体。セール・サイズ欠品・返品・物流構造が粗利益を左右。
- risks
オンライン比率35%、返品と配送原価、競合ブランド、弱い衣料市場。
- international
- narrative
フランチャイズ・欧州マーケットプレイス・アジア店等。為替、地政学。
- online
内容を開く
- fhb_online_H1_reported_GBPm
- 705.7
- fhb_online_sales_share_H1
- 0.35
- ocado_m_and_s_share_of_basket
- 0.309
- 注記
£705.7m衣料ECはFH&Bに内包。Ocadoの売上は連結セグメント内。別売上加算しない。
- ocado
内容を開く
- ownership_parent
- 0.5
- accounting
Consolidated from 2025-04-06, 50% profit/equity allocated NCI. Not treated as equity accounted investment in valuation.
- ocado_26wk_rev_GBPm
- 1784.5
- ocado_26wk_adj_op_GBPm
- 25.6
- H1_average_orders_per_week_thousands
- 573
- H1_active_customers_thousands
- 1377
- H1_average_basket_GBP
- 124.78
- other
- M_and_S_Bank_H1_operating_profit_GBPm
- 6.5
- separate_asset_revaluation
not used
競争力・事業の質
- brand_strength
high
- food_competitive_position
fast-growing small-share premium food presence
- fashion_cyclicality
high
- balance_sheet_assessment
reported net funds ex leases +£374.7m versus net debt incl IFRS16 leases -£2,466.7m; positive net cash ex leases is not a cash payment to shareholders.
- execution_risk
supply chain capex, stock management, cyber incident recurrence, UK cost inflation
- confidence
medium-low quantitative 10yr; high for 2026 primary-source financial facts
業界と環境
- peers_context
UK grocers and fashion/online retail; no market multiples used to build terminal values
- drivers
内容を開く
- 1
UK grocery value and volume competition
- 2
apparel demand and ecommerce returns
- 3
cost of wage/energy/packaging taxes
- 4
Ocado automated fulfilment fees and utilization
- 5
store leases and supply chain capacity
- regulation
- 1
UK national living wage and employer NI
- 2
EPR packaging regime
- 3
data security and cybersecurity
財務・資本配分
- H1_reviewed_statement_2026_09_26_GBPm
内容を開く
- revenue
- 9168.6
- ifrs_op_profit
- 438.1
- fin_income
- 23.2
- fin_cost
- -106.2
- ifrs_pbt
- 355.1
- income_tax_charge
- 90
- group_profit_after_tax
- 265.1
- parent_attributable_profit
- 265.8
- NCI_loss
- -0.7
- parent_equity
- 3242.1
- NCI_equity
- 166.1
- consolidated_equity
- 3408.2
- cash_equivalents
- 870.6
- cash_and_short_assets
- 1072.1
- nonlease_financial_borrowings_implied
- 697.4
- lease_liabilities
- 2841.4
- net_funds_ex_leases
- 374.7
- net_debt_incl_leases
- 2466.7
- trust_shares_acquired_cash_H1
- 14.3
- share_based_credit_to_equity_H1
- 19.6
- proceeds_from_employee_share_exercise_H1
- 2.7
- dividend_paid_H1
- 61.5
- noncurrent_investments_in_other_jv_associates
- 11.4
- cash_capex_H1
- 501
- H1_capex_maintenance
- 40.6
- H1_capex_growth_and_costout
- 336.8
- H1_DA_impairment_and_disposals
- 339.9
- H1_cash_lease_payments
- 186.9
- H1_lease_principal
- 130.9
- H1_lease_interest_paid
- 58
- 2026_03_28_audited_GBPm
内容を開く
- ifrs_parent_profit
- 259.4
- parent_equity
- 3056.1
- nci_equity
- 166.8
- yearly_IFRS2_share_based_expense
- 38.8
- annual_EBT_market_purchases
- 21.1
- EBT_shares
- 11557288
- EBT_dividends_waived
- はい
- group_revenue
- 17273.6
- asof_2026_11_06_pro_forma_proxy_oku
内容を開く
- parent_equity
- 33.06396771
- nci_equity
- 1.6594274
- cash_like
- 10.95239511
- cash_and_equiv
- 8.93739511
- short_term_financial_assets
- 2.015
- nonlease_debt
- 6.974
- lease_debt
- 28.43754411
- bridge_2026_09_26_to_11_06
内容を開く
- days
- 41
- 方法
41/365 × H1-reported profit/SBC and FCF annualized; capital increase from actual reported 51,798 October share issue but share exercise price proxy 80% × closing price; no unsupported EBT share change.
- parent_profit_add_oku
- 0.59713973
- nci_profit_add_oku
- -0.0015726
- sbc_credit_add_oku
- 0.04403288
- saye_receipt_add_oku
- 0.00179511
- free_cash_add_oku
- 0.2296
- no_confirmed_post_interim_dividend_cash_payment_until_2027_01_08
- はい
- shares_capital_rights
内容を開く
- issued_and_outstanding_2026_11_02
- 2080609676
- treasury_2026_11_02
- 0
- EBT_2026_03_28_actual
- 11557288
- EBT_proxy_cutoff
- 11557288
- EBT_waives_all_dividends
- はい
- employee_trust_proxy_uncertainty
2026-09-26 EBT number not separately stated; audited March holdings used as proxy
- H1_weighted_avg_basic_million
- 2061.5
- H1_weighted_avg_diluted_million
- 2110.2
- historic_employee_scheme_2026_03_28
- SAYE_options_outstanding
- 35548227
- DSBP_awards_outstanding
- 34372772
- RSP_awards_outstanding
- 1382005
- initial_old_cohort_dividend_bearing_proxy_shares
- 2069052388
- ocadobasis
2025-04-06 control/consolidation: NCI equity £166.1m 2026 Sep; other true equity method investments £11.4m already in consolidated assets. No standalone Ocado equity valuation add.
- cash_interest_lease_method
IFRS NI deducts lease interest and ROU depreciation; FCFE adds back both owned and ROU depreciation, deducts lease PRINCIPAL once, not rent plus ROU+interest again.
- dividend_accrual_policy
2026-11-04 announced interim 1.4p was not recognized at 2026-09-26 under IAS 10. Future IFRS liability enforceability of UK interim dividend as at cutoff not separately verified; model books equity debit and cash on 2027-01-08 payment, never at ex date. Any timing of accrual does not change old holder cash flows.
評価の前提と確認
- price_source_validation
LSE closed at 433.2 GBX on 2026-11-06; convert 433.2p/100=£4.332.
- RNS_vs_lse_quoted_market_cap
RNS 2,080,609,676 × 4.332 = £9,013.20m (gross) while LSE rendered £9,242.07m; use RNS primary count, discrepancy disclosed.
- trust_payout_fraction
basis.shares excludes 11,557,288 shares 2026-03-28 audited proxy on which dividend is waived; future book equity and transfer affect ownership separately.
- underlying_vs_ifrs
£403.2m H1 adjusted PBT is NOT IFRS profit; £265.8m parent after-tax is, including share-based expense.
- lease_prevention
Lease liabilities £2,841.4m included in balance but not deducted as cash at terminal; annual net earnings include lease finance and depreciation, cash model subtracts lease principal after D&A addback.
- joint_venture_prevention
Ocado 100% included in consolidated revenues and operating profits and 50% NCI allocated; £11.4m other JV asset not capitalized again in terminal.
- sbc_prevention
Future share awards from EBT bought in market paid cash, with award transfer zero cash. Newly issued options have actual scenario-priced sale proceeds; terminal cash cost covers 100% EBT and free/paid new shares at market, with exercise money offset once.
- cum_div_sale_prevention
No forecast ex date precedes 2036-11-06 while its cash payment follows exit. For all ex rights before exit paid before exit; therefore no seller dividend receivable separately added to mcap.
- valuation_anchor
2037 sustainable owner FCFE, cost of equity k, perpetual growth g, and incremental net funds; historical price and forecast buyback execution pricing never used as P/E or P/B anchor.
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 9.40%
- meaning
base case nominal GBP equity cost 9.4% (assumption), 5 stress-case k shown under each case
- risk_free_rate_assumed
- 0.044
- equity_risk_premium_assumed
- 0.055
- beta_assumed
- 0.91
- 計算式
risk-free 4.4% + equity-risk-premium 5.5% × beta 0.91 ≈9.4%, scenario overrides reflect higher/lower capital risk
- terminal_methods_excluded
- 1
market_PE_mean_reversion
- 2
market_PBR_mean_reversion
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 超強気 | 10.0% | 27.49 | 272.14 |
| 強気 | 20.0% | 22.65 | 182.85 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 18.21 | 111.31 |
| 弱気 | 20.0% | 10.79 | 27.73 |
| 深刻低迷 | 10.0% | 3.76 | 0.00 |
事業の詳細
- report_date
2026-11-04
- underlying_period_end
2026-09-26
- reporting_2026_27_has_53_weeks
- はい
- food
- narrative
英国店舗・フランチャイズ、品質・値頃・新設大型店・物流能力増、Food数量伸長。
- risks
競争的値下げ、賞味期限廃棄、EPR包装税、賃金・NI負担、設備と店舗物流リース。
- fashion_home_beauty
- narrative
店舗＋衣料EC一体。セール・サイズ欠品・返品・物流構造が粗利益を左右。
- risks
オンライン比率35%、返品と配送原価、競合ブランド、弱い衣料市場。
- international
- narrative
フランチャイズ・欧州マーケットプレイス・アジア店等。為替、地政学。
- online
内容を開く
- fhb_online_H1_reported_GBPm
- 705.7
- fhb_online_sales_share_H1
- 0.35
- ocado_m_and_s_share_of_basket
- 0.309
- 注記
£705.7m衣料ECはFH&Bに内包。Ocadoの売上は連結セグメント内。別売上加算しない。
- ocado
内容を開く
- ownership_parent
- 0.5
- accounting
Consolidated from 2025-04-06, 50% profit/equity allocated NCI. Not treated as equity accounted investment in valuation.
- ocado_26wk_rev_GBPm
- 1784.5
- ocado_26wk_adj_op_GBPm
- 25.6
- H1_average_orders_per_week_thousands
- 573
- H1_active_customers_thousands
- 1377
- H1_average_basket_GBP
- 124.78
- other
- M_and_S_Bank_H1_operating_profit_GBPm
- 6.5
- separate_asset_revaluation
not used
競争力の詳細
- brand_strength
high
- food_competitive_position
fast-growing small-share premium food presence
- fashion_cyclicality
high
- balance_sheet_assessment
reported net funds ex leases +£374.7m versus net debt incl IFRS16 leases -£2,466.7m; positive net cash ex leases is not a cash payment to shareholders.
- execution_risk
supply chain capex, stock management, cyber incident recurrence, UK cost inflation
- confidence
medium-low quantitative 10yr; high for 2026 primary-source financial facts
業界の詳細
- peers_context
UK grocers and fashion/online retail; no market multiples used to build terminal values
- drivers
内容を開く
- 1
UK grocery value and volume competition
- 2
apparel demand and ecommerce returns
- 3
cost of wage/energy/packaging taxes
- 4
Ocado automated fulfilment fees and utilization
- 5
store leases and supply chain capacity
- regulation
- 1
UK national living wage and employer NI
- 2
EPR packaging regime
- 3
data security and cybersecurity
財務・資本配分の詳細
- H1_reviewed_statement_2026_09_26_GBPm
内容を開く
- revenue
- 9168.6
- ifrs_op_profit
- 438.1
- fin_income
- 23.2
- fin_cost
- -106.2
- ifrs_pbt
- 355.1
- income_tax_charge
- 90
- group_profit_after_tax
- 265.1
- parent_attributable_profit
- 265.8
- NCI_loss
- -0.7
- parent_equity
- 3242.1
- NCI_equity
- 166.1
- consolidated_equity
- 3408.2
- cash_equivalents
- 870.6
- cash_and_short_assets
- 1072.1
- nonlease_financial_borrowings_implied
- 697.4
- lease_liabilities
- 2841.4
- net_funds_ex_leases
- 374.7
- net_debt_incl_leases
- 2466.7
- trust_shares_acquired_cash_H1
- 14.3
- share_based_credit_to_equity_H1
- 19.6
- proceeds_from_employee_share_exercise_H1
- 2.7
- dividend_paid_H1
- 61.5
- noncurrent_investments_in_other_jv_associates
- 11.4
- cash_capex_H1
- 501
- H1_capex_maintenance
- 40.6
- H1_capex_growth_and_costout
- 336.8
- H1_DA_impairment_and_disposals
- 339.9
- H1_cash_lease_payments
- 186.9
- H1_lease_principal
- 130.9
- H1_lease_interest_paid
- 58
- 2026_03_28_audited_GBPm
内容を開く
- ifrs_parent_profit
- 259.4
- parent_equity
- 3056.1
- nci_equity
- 166.8
- yearly_IFRS2_share_based_expense
- 38.8
- annual_EBT_market_purchases
- 21.1
- EBT_shares
- 11557288
- EBT_dividends_waived
- はい
- group_revenue
- 17273.6
- asof_2026_11_06_pro_forma_proxy_oku
内容を開く
- parent_equity
- 33.06396771
- nci_equity
- 1.6594274
- cash_like
- 10.95239511
- cash_and_equiv
- 8.93739511
- short_term_financial_assets
- 2.015
- nonlease_debt
- 6.974
- lease_debt
- 28.43754411
- bridge_2026_09_26_to_11_06
内容を開く
- days
- 41
- 方法
41/365 × H1-reported profit/SBC and FCF annualized; capital increase from actual reported 51,798 October share issue but share exercise price proxy 80% × closing price; no unsupported EBT share change.
- parent_profit_add_oku
- 0.59713973
- nci_profit_add_oku
- -0.0015726
- sbc_credit_add_oku
- 0.04403288
- saye_receipt_add_oku
- 0.00179511
- free_cash_add_oku
- 0.2296
- no_confirmed_post_interim_dividend_cash_payment_until_2027_01_08
- はい
- shares_capital_rights
内容を開く
- issued_and_outstanding_2026_11_02
- 2080609676
- treasury_2026_11_02
- 0
- EBT_2026_03_28_actual
- 11557288
- EBT_proxy_cutoff
- 11557288
- EBT_waives_all_dividends
- はい
- employee_trust_proxy_uncertainty
2026-09-26 EBT number not separately stated; audited March holdings used as proxy
- H1_weighted_avg_basic_million
- 2061.5
- H1_weighted_avg_diluted_million
- 2110.2
- historic_employee_scheme_2026_03_28
- SAYE_options_outstanding
- 35548227
- DSBP_awards_outstanding
- 34372772
- RSP_awards_outstanding
- 1382005
- initial_old_cohort_dividend_bearing_proxy_shares
- 2069052388
- ocadobasis
2025-04-06 control/consolidation: NCI equity £166.1m 2026 Sep; other true equity method investments £11.4m already in consolidated assets. No standalone Ocado equity valuation add.
- cash_interest_lease_method
IFRS NI deducts lease interest and ROU depreciation; FCFE adds back both owned and ROU depreciation, deducts lease PRINCIPAL once, not rent plus ROU+interest again.
- dividend_accrual_policy
2026-11-04 announced interim 1.4p was not recognized at 2026-09-26 under IAS 10. Future IFRS liability enforceability of UK interim dividend as at cutoff not separately verified; model books equity debit and cash on 2027-01-08 payment, never at ex date. Any timing of accrual does not change old holder cash flows.
評価根拠の詳細
- price_source_validation
LSE closed at 433.2 GBX on 2026-11-06; convert 433.2p/100=£4.332.
- RNS_vs_lse_quoted_market_cap
RNS 2,080,609,676 × 4.332 = £9,013.20m (gross) while LSE rendered £9,242.07m; use RNS primary count, discrepancy disclosed.
- trust_payout_fraction
basis.shares excludes 11,557,288 shares 2026-03-28 audited proxy on which dividend is waived; future book equity and transfer affect ownership separately.
- underlying_vs_ifrs
£403.2m H1 adjusted PBT is NOT IFRS profit; £265.8m parent after-tax is, including share-based expense.
- lease_prevention
Lease liabilities £2,841.4m included in balance but not deducted as cash at terminal; annual net earnings include lease finance and depreciation, cash model subtracts lease principal after D&A addback.
- joint_venture_prevention
Ocado 100% included in consolidated revenues and operating profits and 50% NCI allocated; £11.4m other JV asset not capitalized again in terminal.
- sbc_prevention
Future share awards from EBT bought in market paid cash, with award transfer zero cash. Newly issued options have actual scenario-priced sale proceeds; terminal cash cost covers 100% EBT and free/paid new shares at market, with exercise money offset once.
- cum_div_sale_prevention
No forecast ex date precedes 2036-11-06 while its cash payment follows exit. For all ex rights before exit paid before exit; therefore no seller dividend receivable separately added to mcap.
- valuation_anchor
2037 sustainable owner FCFE, cost of equity k, perpetual growth g, and incremental net funds; historical price and forecast buyback execution pricing never used as P/E or P/B anchor.
分析基準とデータ
- 日付
2026-11-06
- venue
London Stock Exchange XLON
- share_class
ordinary 1p
- isin
GB0031274896
- 価格・単価
- 4.332
- price_currency
GBP
- price_raw_GBp
- 433.2
- gbp_per_gbp_pence
- 0.01
- price_verification_source_ids
- 1
LSE_PRICE
- 2
FT_HIST_PRICE
- issued_shares_at_2026_10_31_confirmed
- 2080609676
- treasury_shares_asof_2026_11_02
- 0
- EBT_trust_non_dividend_shares_last_verified_2026_03_28
- 11557288
- EBT_trust_shares_at_2026_11_06
- 未確認
- EBT_trust_cutoff_proxy_shares
- 11557288
- 株数
- 2069052388
- shares_semantics
original shareholder cohort: reported 2026-11-02 shares less 2026-03-28 audited EBT holdings proxy; no treasury; EBT waives cash dividend; number is PROXY
- initial_cohort_market_cap_oku
- 89.63134945
- total_issued_market_cap_oku
- 90.13201116
- LSE_displayed_market_cap_GBPm
- 9242.07
- LSE_market_cap_gap_comment
LSE quote page indicated approx £9,242.07m cap whereas issued shares times 433.2p produce approx £9,013.20m; RNS issued count governs; do not adopt website cap as share count.
- 株価の出所
LSE MKS 2026-11-06 close 433.2 pence
- 株数の出所
2026-11-02 issued shares less 2026-03-28 employee trust holdings proxy; actual trust holdings at 2026-11-06 unknown
追加データ・検証記録
- independent_checks
内容を開く
- engine
recompute from raw unrounded states; 55 scenario-period blocks, event enumeration, row-by-row audit, all amounts rounded only on export
- tests_passed
- 999
- tests_failed
- 0
- number_of_periods
- 55
- date_count_days
- 3653
- per_case_IRR_recalculated
- はい
- aggregate_expected_cashflow_XIRR_recalculated
- はい
- all_balance_sheet_bridges_close
- はい
分析に使用した資料
- London Stock Exchange MKS ordinary quote; 06 Nov 2026 close 433.2 GBX 2026-11-06
- RNS Total Voting Rights 2 Nov 2026 2026-11-02
- RNS Admission to Trading 2 Nov 2026 2026-11-02
- 2026/27 H1 26 weeks to 26 September 2026, full RNS with condensed IFRS statements 2026-11-04
- 2026-11-04 half-year results newsroom 2026-11-04
- M&S annual financial statements 52 weeks to 28 March 2026 2026-06-01
- M&S Annual Report & Financial Statements 2026 full 2026-06-01
- Company shareholder centre, 2026/27 interim dividend timetable 2026-11-04
- M&S 2026/27 half-year investor slides 2026-11-04
- Financial Times historical MKS share close 6 Nov 2026 2026-11-06