AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
NEXT plc
NXT · GBP · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
英国事業と海外オンラインの成長、株主還元を評価
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
英国店舗・オンライン、海外オンライン、信用事業などの利益と投資を5ケースで予測。配当と買戻しへの比例応募、従業員信託の株式取得・交付を区別します。2026年11月6日の信託保有株数は未確認で、2026年1月末実数を代理値として使用。基準日の資本・純負債、将来の特別配当・買戻しは推計です。
要約の補足
- core_view
NEXTの英国店舗は低成長・EC英国は中低成長、海外ECとTotal Platformは成長要因。ESOT実数は1月末まで確認でき、11月6日残高未確定。予測は分母代理値の感応度を明記。
- pros
内容を開く
- 1
海外ECの成長とブランドの運営受託
- 2
NEXT Financeの顧客信用事業と運営ノウハウ
- 3
キャッシュ創出と利益率
- 4
買戻しに8% ERR条件を設ける資本規律
- risks
内容を開く
- 1
ESOT発行済との混同による見かけのPER誤認
- 2
国際ECのEU関税と物流採算
- 3
与信債権の貸倒・金利・借入依存
- 4
E4倉庫設備投資・資本コスト
- 5
買戻し上限超過で £136m 還元方法は未決定
- 6
買収ブランド少数株主利益とIFRS売上の差
- financial_reporting_warning
CEOのTotal Group Sales £7.54bnとIFRS Statutory Revenueは一致しない。CEO £1,255m PBTはNON-IFRS Group PBT guidanceであり、IFRS親会社純利益ではない。
結論の補足
- as_of_2026_11_06_share_price_gbp
- 154.85
- basis_effective_shares_proxy
- 114152051
- basis_valuation_oku
- 176.764450973
- company_outlook_FY2027_group_pre_tax_profit_gbp_m
- 1255
- outlook_status
non_IFRS_group_adjusted_profit_before_tax_issuer_guidance_not_ifrs_parent_profit
- expected_timed_old_holder_IRR
- 0.041271175803
- expected_weighted_average_of_scenario_IRRs
- 0.030255274677
- expected_10y_received_cash_oku
- 96.31375127
- expected_old_cohort_terminal_oku
- 147.29128428
- public_release_status
model_complete_but_investor_use_requires_updating_unknown_ESOT_Nov2026_balance_and_future_dates
事業
- categories
内容を開く
- 1
Online UK
- 2
Online International
- 3
Retail Stores
- 4
NEXT Finance
- 5
Investments and Total Platform
- 6
Other businesses
- disclosure_note
IFRS売上にはクレジット利息が含まれ、GTVと手数料収益を区別。部分所有子会社はIFRS連結100%売上だが親会社純利益はNCI控除。
- platform_competitive_advantage
顧客接点と物流・技術のプラットフォーム化
- finance_risk
credit nextpay/pay-in-3 receivable funding and credit losses must be separated from merchandising working capital
- capacity_note
Elmsall4 2029 construction/2031 storage/2032 automation are plans, not booked future actuals
競争力・事業の質
- profit_quality
2026 H1 IFRS reported after SBC; exclude NCI at bottom line
- statutory_revenue_vs_group_sales
H1 statutory £3447.1m vs headline total group sales £3540m due to commissions, investments and minority NCI adjustments
- cash_conversion
H1 cash flow after tax and before owner payments, debt and seasonal WC; company FY2027 £752m surplus guidance before returns
- sbc_integrity
All IFRS net income includes SBC expense. SBC equity credit added once to distributable FCFE; ESOT replacement cash cost at market price deducted once in terminal fixed point. ESOT option proceeds are issuer financing not cash paid to old holders.
- EPS_denominator
H1 EPS weighted-average issued 120.7m, weighted ESOT (5.5m), basic 115.2m, diluted 116.9m; none is November 6 end-of-day share number
- nci
H1 £4.9m of consolidated profit is NCI, excluded from parent profit and terminal normalization
業界と環境
- uk_retail_competition
offline wage inflation, rents, discounts and ecommerce costs; seasonal Christmas working capital
- international
growth +32.2% Q3 but new EU tariff cost, regional execution and returns/marketing expense
- credit
consumer credit interest income, loss provisions, cost of funding, FCA oversight
- fulfilment
E4 £2.5bn additional sales capacity stated as conditional plan not capitalised separately
- cost_of_capital
discount scenario dependent no sector PER extrapolation
財務・資本配分
- reported_and_estimated
内容を開く
- annual_fy2026
内容を開く
- period
FY2026_53_weeks_ending_2026_01_31
- classification
reported_IFRS_actual
- 売上高
- 69.013
- 営業利益（億）
- 12.788
- parent_net_income_after_sbc_oku
- 8.885
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.095
- PBT_oku
- 11.926
- income_tax_oku
- 2.946
- sbc_expense_oku
- 0.431
- ESOT_shares_actual_2026_01_31
- 5504760
- ESOT_purchase_oku
- 1.69
- ESOT_deliver_m
- 2.106
- company_cash_buybacks_for_cancellation_oku
- 1.314
- ordinary_dividend_expense_oku
- 2.865
- B_share_capital_distribution_oku
- 4.215
- segment_ifrs_sales_oku
内容を開く
- retail_stores
- 18.88
- online_uk
- 25.874
- online_international
- 12.804
- next_finance_interest
- 3.057
- investments_total_platform
- 7.343
- other_business
- 1.055
- half_fy2027
内容を開く
- period
H1_FY2027_2026_02_01_2026_08_01
- classification
reported_IFRS_interim_actual
- 売上高
- 34.471
- 営業利益（億）
- 6.122
- PBT_oku
- 5.661
- income_tax_oku
- 1.416
- parent_net_income_oku
- 4.196
- NCI_profit_oku
- 0.049
- 親会社持分（億）
- 15.05
- NCI_equity_oku
- 1.226
- total_equity_oku
- 16.276
- net_debt_ex_lease_oku
- 8.9
- lease_debt_oku
- 10.04
- customer_finance_receivable_oku
- 13.09
- inventory_oku
- 10.854
- ESOT_weighted_average_m_for_eps
- 5.5
- ESOT_period_end_actual_m
- 未確認
- ESOT_share_balance_status
not_disclosed_in_half_year_pdf
- ESOT_cash_purchases_oku
- 1.388
- ESOT_option_exercise_cash_oku
- 0.69
- ESOT_equity_movement_oku
- 0.613
- share_option_expense_oku
- 0.223
- ESOT_equity_reserve_oku
- -4.801
- official_share_end_rounded_m
- 119.657
- shares_cancelled_rounded_m
- 2.779
- dividends_payable_2026_08_01_oku
- 2.067
- dividend_paid_2026_08_03_oku
- 2.067
- segment_ifrs_sales_oku
内容を開く
- retail_stores
- 8.823
- online_uk
- 12.394
- online_international
- 7.604
- next_finance_interest
- 1.525
- investments_total_platform
- 3.604
- other_business
- 0.521
- EPS_shares_weighted_issued_m
- 120.7
- EPS_shares_weighted_esot_m
- -5.5
- EPS_weighted_basic_m
- 115.2
- EPS_weighted_diluted_m
- 116.9
- shares_esot
内容を開く
- 2026_01_31_ESOT_end_shares_actual
- 5504760
- 2026_H1_weighted_average_ESOT_m
- 5.5
- 2026_H1_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku
- -4.801
- 2026_09_21_parent_only_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku
- -4.813
- 2026_11_06_ESOT_end_shares_actual
- 未確認
- 2026_10_30_legal_issued
- 119656811
- 2026_10_30_treasury
- 0
- PDMR_2026_09_22_vested_shares
- 19887
- 注記
The annual ESOT count is a dated point-in-time count, while interim 5.5m is weighted-average. The Sept parent-only cost reserve cannot be converted to units without share-specific acquisition/disposal data. No post-January complete trust rollforward was identified.
- q3_2026_update
内容を開く
- full_price_growth_Q3
- 0.081
- international_full_price_growth_Q3
- 0.322
- full_year_guidance_headline_group_sales_oku
- 75.4
- FY2027_non_ifrs_PBT_guidance_oku
- 12.55
- EPS_guidance_pence
- 820.6
- remaining_136m_after_355m_cancel_buys_oku
- 1.36
- hurdle_ERR
- 0.08
- share_price_example_limit_gbp
- 136.5
- limit_status
issuer_approximate_estimate_not_share_count_backsolve
- £355m_buybacks_prior_to_basis_included_in_2026_start_shares_not_counted_as_future_holder_CF
- はい
- model_basis_bridge_from_2026_08_01_to_2026_11_06
内容を開く
- opening_parent_equity_oku
- 15.05
- parent_profit_proxy_oku
- 2.28
- sbc_credit_proxy_oku
- 0.115
- esot_buyback_cash_proxy_oku
- -0.4
- employee_exercise_cash_proxy_oku
- 0.22
- other_OCI_and_equity_proxy_oku
- -0.075
- closing_parent_equity_proxy_oku
- 17.19
- opening_ex_lease_net_debt_oku
- 8.9
- estimated_2026_11_06_net_debt_oku
- 10
- estimated_net_debt_increase_oku
- 1.1
- 2026_08_03_dividend_cash_payment_oku
- 2.067
- 2026_08_01_dividend_liability_already_booked_oku
- 2.067
- no_second_equity_deduction_at_payment
- はい
- Q3_group_profit_not_separately_reported
- はい
- basis_parent_and_debt_bridge_explicit_pretax_tax_finance_and_FCF
内容を開く
- period_start
2026-08-02
- 期間末
2026-11-06
- period_days
- 97
- parent_profit_oku
- 2.28
- tax_rate_assumed
- 0.25
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.018
- finance_income_oku
- 0.012
- finance_costs_gross_oku
- 0.263
- other_below_operating_oku
- 0
- sbc_credit_oku
- 0.115
- esot_purchases_cash_oku
- 0.4
- employee_exercise_cash_in_oku
- 0.22
- parent_equity_OCI_other_oku
- -0.075
- estimated_depreciation_oku
- 1.25
- estimated_capex_oku
- 1.3
- estimated_lease_principal_oku
- 0.7
- estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku
- 0.498
- estimated_acquisition_cash_oku
- 0
- dividend_paid_august_3_oku
- 2.067
- 状態
model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 3.064
- income_tax_oku
- 0.766
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 0.251
- 営業利益（億）
- 3.315
- operational_fcf_cash_oku
- 1.147
- closing_parent_equity_oku
- 17.19
- closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku
- 10
- nci_OCI_other_oku
- 0.006
- 状態
August_2026_reported_opening_plus_2026_11_06_estimate_not_reported
- basis_parent_equity_connection_error_oku
- 0
- basis_debt_connection_error_oku
- 0
- interim_98p_September_board_announcement_note
Board announced its intention / declaration 17 Sep; UK interim dividend ordinarily revocable until paid. No 11/06 legally enforceable payable assumed; original ledger forecast accrual at 26 November is MODEL timing, not verified IFRS liability.
- shareholder_return_policy
proportional tender uniformly for cancellation and ESOT purchases. Other investors including employees participate in same ratio by share count. Bonus and option awards delivered by trust increase floating shares without new legal issuance; paid employee exercise adds corporate cash/equity, not holder cash.
- financial_debt_and_lease_debt
2026 Aug net debt excludes leases £890m; leases additional £1004m. Forward FCFE includes interest and lease principal, so no separate double debt deduction at terminal.
- tax
FY2026 actual £294.6m tax on £1192.6m pretax, H1 FY2027 £141.6m on £566.1m; FY2027 25% model and later projections use case rates .24-.265; taxable basis and PBT bridge follows IFRS rather than adjusted NEXT Group PBT
- H1_reported_IFRS_profit_actual_oku
内容を開く
- period_start
2026-02-01
- 期間末
2026-08-01
- period_days
- 182
- 売上高
- 34.471
- 営業利益（億）
- 6.122
- finance_income_oku
- 0.026
- finance_costs_gross_oku
- 0.487
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 0.461
- other_below_operating_oku
- 0
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 5.661
- income_tax_oku
- 1.416
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.049
- parent_profit_oku
- 4.196
- parent_equity_end_oku
- 15.05
- nci_equity_end_oku
- 1.226
- net_debt_ex_leases_end_oku
- 8.9
- 状態
reported_IFRS_interim_actual_2026_08_01
- primary_document
half_year_2026
- Q3_to_basis_PBT_tax_profit_assumed_oku
内容を開く
- period_start
2026-08-02
- 期間末
2026-11-06
- period_days
- 97
- parent_profit_oku
- 2.28
- tax_rate_assumed
- 0.25
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.018
- finance_income_oku
- 0.012
- finance_costs_gross_oku
- 0.263
- other_below_operating_oku
- 0
- sbc_credit_oku
- 0.115
- esot_purchases_cash_oku
- 0.4
- employee_exercise_cash_in_oku
- 0.22
- parent_equity_OCI_other_oku
- -0.075
- estimated_depreciation_oku
- 1.25
- estimated_capex_oku
- 1.3
- estimated_lease_principal_oku
- 0.7
- estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku
- 0.498
- estimated_acquisition_cash_oku
- 0
- dividend_paid_august_3_oku
- 2.067
- 状態
model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 3.064
- income_tax_oku
- 0.766
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 0.251
- 営業利益（億）
- 3.315
- operational_fcf_cash_oku
- 1.147
- closing_parent_equity_oku
- 17.19
- closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku
- 10
- nci_OCI_other_oku
- 0.006
- financing_and_tax_sign_convention
net_finance_expense positive means subtract from IFRS operating profit, PBT = operating + finance income - gross finance costs + separately identified below-operating. tax positive means subtract. Other below-operating zero because equity-accounted investee share is already inside operating profit.
- future_actions
predicted buybacks conditional on 8% hurdle; if blocked assumed special distributions, not company announced.
評価の前提と確認
- issuer_equity_market_hurdle
内容を開く
- FY2027_headline_PBT_guidance_oku
- 12.55
- minimum_ERR
- 0.08
- approx_limit_gbp
- 136.5
- not_used_as_strict_share_count
- はい
- 理由
PBT outlook, 8% ERR, price limit use forecast future shares and rounding; cannot invert as exact ESOT shares
- asof_current_ERR_using_IFRS_fy27_model_pbt
- 0.0719602
- asof_current_ERR_using_issuer_group_PBT_guidance
- 0.0709984
- valuation
No terminal PER/PBR. Terminal is cash flow using k and g with ESOT replacement cost endogenously tied to intrinsic equity value, plus excess debt/cash relative to normalized leverage.
- price_market_cap
LSE issue-based market cap differs from shares-in-circulation market cap and must not be mixed with old cohort cashflow denomination
- sensitivity_to_2026_11_06_unknown_ESOT
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 4.50476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 115.152051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 178.312950974
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- 1.5485
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.099509988322
- bear
- -0.017260447243
- base
- 0.043811209621
- bull
- 0.076791869752
- breakout
- 0.105679276749
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.02946994905
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 148.063255727
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.453118862
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04056405628
- 2
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 5.00476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 114.652051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 177.538700973
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- 0.77425
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.099022866092
- bear
- -0.016756197352
- base
- 0.044091723918
- bull
- 0.077257355979
- breakout
- 0.105732836979
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.02983840876
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 147.638932595
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.375005215
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04089361366
- 3
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 5.50476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 114.152051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 176.764450973
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- 0
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.098533222853
- bear
- -0.016249354191
- base
- 0.044580859393
- bull
- 0.077420056333
- breakout
- 0.106171395623
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.03025527468
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 147.29128428
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.313751267
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.0412711758
- 4
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 6.00476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 113.652051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 175.990200974
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- -0.77425
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.098041033426
- bear
- -0.015739892093
- base
- 0.045072325157
- bull
- 0.077885538731
- breakout
- 0.106611625904
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.03074059689
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 147.104816447
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.273900716
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04174331145
- 5
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 6.50476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 113.152051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 175.215950974
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- -1.5485
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.097546272273
- bear
- -0.015227785015
- base
- 0.045566142409
- bull
- 0.078353034536
- breakout
- 0.107053538234
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.03122822339
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 146.91668448
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.233841601
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04221761788
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 9.50%
- k_status
base_case_assumption
- scenario_rates
内容を開く
- crisis
- 0.145
- bear
- 0.115
- base
- 0.095
- bull
- 0.088
- breakout
- 0.087
- 方法
discounted_FCFE_after_cash_ESOT_replenishment_with_case_specific_growth_and_reinvestment_not_market_PER_PBR_reversion
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 海外成長加速 | 8.0% | 124.58 | 282.15 |
| 強気 | 22.0% | 110.82 | 212.94 |
| 中立 | 40.0% | 99.32 | 150.25 |
| 弱気 | 20.0% | 80.99 | 75.36 |
| 構造危機 | 10.0% | 60.38 | 27.00 |
金額の単位
oku_GBP_100_million_pounds
事業の詳細
- categories
内容を開く
- 1
Online UK
- 2
Online International
- 3
Retail Stores
- 4
NEXT Finance
- 5
Investments and Total Platform
- 6
Other businesses
- disclosure_note
IFRS売上にはクレジット利息が含まれ、GTVと手数料収益を区別。部分所有子会社はIFRS連結100%売上だが親会社純利益はNCI控除。
- platform_competitive_advantage
顧客接点と物流・技術のプラットフォーム化
- finance_risk
credit nextpay/pay-in-3 receivable funding and credit losses must be separated from merchandising working capital
- capacity_note
Elmsall4 2029 construction/2031 storage/2032 automation are plans, not booked future actuals
競争力の詳細
- profit_quality
2026 H1 IFRS reported after SBC; exclude NCI at bottom line
- statutory_revenue_vs_group_sales
H1 statutory £3447.1m vs headline total group sales £3540m due to commissions, investments and minority NCI adjustments
- cash_conversion
H1 cash flow after tax and before owner payments, debt and seasonal WC; company FY2027 £752m surplus guidance before returns
- sbc_integrity
All IFRS net income includes SBC expense. SBC equity credit added once to distributable FCFE; ESOT replacement cash cost at market price deducted once in terminal fixed point. ESOT option proceeds are issuer financing not cash paid to old holders.
- EPS_denominator
H1 EPS weighted-average issued 120.7m, weighted ESOT (5.5m), basic 115.2m, diluted 116.9m; none is November 6 end-of-day share number
- nci
H1 £4.9m of consolidated profit is NCI, excluded from parent profit and terminal normalization
業界の詳細
- uk_retail_competition
offline wage inflation, rents, discounts and ecommerce costs; seasonal Christmas working capital
- international
growth +32.2% Q3 but new EU tariff cost, regional execution and returns/marketing expense
- credit
consumer credit interest income, loss provisions, cost of funding, FCA oversight
- fulfilment
E4 £2.5bn additional sales capacity stated as conditional plan not capitalised separately
- cost_of_capital
discount scenario dependent no sector PER extrapolation
財務・資本配分の詳細
- reported_and_estimated
内容を開く
- annual_fy2026
内容を開く
- period
FY2026_53_weeks_ending_2026_01_31
- classification
reported_IFRS_actual
- 売上高
- 69.013
- 営業利益（億）
- 12.788
- parent_net_income_after_sbc_oku
- 8.885
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.095
- PBT_oku
- 11.926
- income_tax_oku
- 2.946
- sbc_expense_oku
- 0.431
- ESOT_shares_actual_2026_01_31
- 5504760
- ESOT_purchase_oku
- 1.69
- ESOT_deliver_m
- 2.106
- company_cash_buybacks_for_cancellation_oku
- 1.314
- ordinary_dividend_expense_oku
- 2.865
- B_share_capital_distribution_oku
- 4.215
- segment_ifrs_sales_oku
内容を開く
- retail_stores
- 18.88
- online_uk
- 25.874
- online_international
- 12.804
- next_finance_interest
- 3.057
- investments_total_platform
- 7.343
- other_business
- 1.055
- half_fy2027
内容を開く
- period
H1_FY2027_2026_02_01_2026_08_01
- classification
reported_IFRS_interim_actual
- 売上高
- 34.471
- 営業利益（億）
- 6.122
- PBT_oku
- 5.661
- income_tax_oku
- 1.416
- parent_net_income_oku
- 4.196
- NCI_profit_oku
- 0.049
- 親会社持分（億）
- 15.05
- NCI_equity_oku
- 1.226
- total_equity_oku
- 16.276
- net_debt_ex_lease_oku
- 8.9
- lease_debt_oku
- 10.04
- customer_finance_receivable_oku
- 13.09
- inventory_oku
- 10.854
- ESOT_weighted_average_m_for_eps
- 5.5
- ESOT_period_end_actual_m
- 未確認
- ESOT_share_balance_status
not_disclosed_in_half_year_pdf
- ESOT_cash_purchases_oku
- 1.388
- ESOT_option_exercise_cash_oku
- 0.69
- ESOT_equity_movement_oku
- 0.613
- share_option_expense_oku
- 0.223
- ESOT_equity_reserve_oku
- -4.801
- official_share_end_rounded_m
- 119.657
- shares_cancelled_rounded_m
- 2.779
- dividends_payable_2026_08_01_oku
- 2.067
- dividend_paid_2026_08_03_oku
- 2.067
- segment_ifrs_sales_oku
内容を開く
- retail_stores
- 8.823
- online_uk
- 12.394
- online_international
- 7.604
- next_finance_interest
- 1.525
- investments_total_platform
- 3.604
- other_business
- 0.521
- EPS_shares_weighted_issued_m
- 120.7
- EPS_shares_weighted_esot_m
- -5.5
- EPS_weighted_basic_m
- 115.2
- EPS_weighted_diluted_m
- 116.9
- shares_esot
内容を開く
- 2026_01_31_ESOT_end_shares_actual
- 5504760
- 2026_H1_weighted_average_ESOT_m
- 5.5
- 2026_H1_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku
- -4.801
- 2026_09_21_parent_only_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku
- -4.813
- 2026_11_06_ESOT_end_shares_actual
- 未確認
- 2026_10_30_legal_issued
- 119656811
- 2026_10_30_treasury
- 0
- PDMR_2026_09_22_vested_shares
- 19887
- 注記
The annual ESOT count is a dated point-in-time count, while interim 5.5m is weighted-average. The Sept parent-only cost reserve cannot be converted to units without share-specific acquisition/disposal data. No post-January complete trust rollforward was identified.
- q3_2026_update
内容を開く
- full_price_growth_Q3
- 0.081
- international_full_price_growth_Q3
- 0.322
- full_year_guidance_headline_group_sales_oku
- 75.4
- FY2027_non_ifrs_PBT_guidance_oku
- 12.55
- EPS_guidance_pence
- 820.6
- remaining_136m_after_355m_cancel_buys_oku
- 1.36
- hurdle_ERR
- 0.08
- share_price_example_limit_gbp
- 136.5
- limit_status
issuer_approximate_estimate_not_share_count_backsolve
- £355m_buybacks_prior_to_basis_included_in_2026_start_shares_not_counted_as_future_holder_CF
- はい
- model_basis_bridge_from_2026_08_01_to_2026_11_06
内容を開く
- opening_parent_equity_oku
- 15.05
- parent_profit_proxy_oku
- 2.28
- sbc_credit_proxy_oku
- 0.115
- esot_buyback_cash_proxy_oku
- -0.4
- employee_exercise_cash_proxy_oku
- 0.22
- other_OCI_and_equity_proxy_oku
- -0.075
- closing_parent_equity_proxy_oku
- 17.19
- opening_ex_lease_net_debt_oku
- 8.9
- estimated_2026_11_06_net_debt_oku
- 10
- estimated_net_debt_increase_oku
- 1.1
- 2026_08_03_dividend_cash_payment_oku
- 2.067
- 2026_08_01_dividend_liability_already_booked_oku
- 2.067
- no_second_equity_deduction_at_payment
- はい
- Q3_group_profit_not_separately_reported
- はい
- basis_parent_and_debt_bridge_explicit_pretax_tax_finance_and_FCF
内容を開く
- period_start
2026-08-02
- 期間末
2026-11-06
- period_days
- 97
- parent_profit_oku
- 2.28
- tax_rate_assumed
- 0.25
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.018
- finance_income_oku
- 0.012
- finance_costs_gross_oku
- 0.263
- other_below_operating_oku
- 0
- sbc_credit_oku
- 0.115
- esot_purchases_cash_oku
- 0.4
- employee_exercise_cash_in_oku
- 0.22
- parent_equity_OCI_other_oku
- -0.075
- estimated_depreciation_oku
- 1.25
- estimated_capex_oku
- 1.3
- estimated_lease_principal_oku
- 0.7
- estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku
- 0.498
- estimated_acquisition_cash_oku
- 0
- dividend_paid_august_3_oku
- 2.067
- 状態
model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 3.064
- income_tax_oku
- 0.766
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 0.251
- 営業利益（億）
- 3.315
- operational_fcf_cash_oku
- 1.147
- closing_parent_equity_oku
- 17.19
- closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku
- 10
- nci_OCI_other_oku
- 0.006
- 状態
August_2026_reported_opening_plus_2026_11_06_estimate_not_reported
- basis_parent_equity_connection_error_oku
- 0
- basis_debt_connection_error_oku
- 0
- interim_98p_September_board_announcement_note
Board announced its intention / declaration 17 Sep; UK interim dividend ordinarily revocable until paid. No 11/06 legally enforceable payable assumed; original ledger forecast accrual at 26 November is MODEL timing, not verified IFRS liability.
- shareholder_return_policy
proportional tender uniformly for cancellation and ESOT purchases. Other investors including employees participate in same ratio by share count. Bonus and option awards delivered by trust increase floating shares without new legal issuance; paid employee exercise adds corporate cash/equity, not holder cash.
- financial_debt_and_lease_debt
2026 Aug net debt excludes leases £890m; leases additional £1004m. Forward FCFE includes interest and lease principal, so no separate double debt deduction at terminal.
- tax
FY2026 actual £294.6m tax on £1192.6m pretax, H1 FY2027 £141.6m on £566.1m; FY2027 25% model and later projections use case rates .24-.265; taxable basis and PBT bridge follows IFRS rather than adjusted NEXT Group PBT
- H1_reported_IFRS_profit_actual_oku
内容を開く
- period_start
2026-02-01
- 期間末
2026-08-01
- period_days
- 182
- 売上高
- 34.471
- 営業利益（億）
- 6.122
- finance_income_oku
- 0.026
- finance_costs_gross_oku
- 0.487
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 0.461
- other_below_operating_oku
- 0
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 5.661
- income_tax_oku
- 1.416
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.049
- parent_profit_oku
- 4.196
- parent_equity_end_oku
- 15.05
- nci_equity_end_oku
- 1.226
- net_debt_ex_leases_end_oku
- 8.9
- 状態
reported_IFRS_interim_actual_2026_08_01
- primary_document
half_year_2026
- Q3_to_basis_PBT_tax_profit_assumed_oku
内容を開く
- period_start
2026-08-02
- 期間末
2026-11-06
- period_days
- 97
- parent_profit_oku
- 2.28
- tax_rate_assumed
- 0.25
- nci_profit_oku
- 0.018
- finance_income_oku
- 0.012
- finance_costs_gross_oku
- 0.263
- other_below_operating_oku
- 0
- sbc_credit_oku
- 0.115
- esot_purchases_cash_oku
- 0.4
- employee_exercise_cash_in_oku
- 0.22
- parent_equity_OCI_other_oku
- -0.075
- estimated_depreciation_oku
- 1.25
- estimated_capex_oku
- 1.3
- estimated_lease_principal_oku
- 0.7
- estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku
- 0.498
- estimated_acquisition_cash_oku
- 0
- dividend_paid_august_3_oku
- 2.067
- 状態
model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 3.064
- income_tax_oku
- 0.766
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 0.251
- 営業利益（億）
- 3.315
- operational_fcf_cash_oku
- 1.147
- closing_parent_equity_oku
- 17.19
- closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku
- 10
- nci_OCI_other_oku
- 0.006
- financing_and_tax_sign_convention
net_finance_expense positive means subtract from IFRS operating profit, PBT = operating + finance income - gross finance costs + separately identified below-operating. tax positive means subtract. Other below-operating zero because equity-accounted investee share is already inside operating profit.
- future_actions
predicted buybacks conditional on 8% hurdle; if blocked assumed special distributions, not company announced.
評価根拠の詳細
- issuer_equity_market_hurdle
内容を開く
- FY2027_headline_PBT_guidance_oku
- 12.55
- minimum_ERR
- 0.08
- approx_limit_gbp
- 136.5
- not_used_as_strict_share_count
- はい
- 理由
PBT outlook, 8% ERR, price limit use forecast future shares and rounding; cannot invert as exact ESOT shares
- asof_current_ERR_using_IFRS_fy27_model_pbt
- 0.0719602
- asof_current_ERR_using_issuer_group_PBT_guidance
- 0.0709984
- valuation
No terminal PER/PBR. Terminal is cash flow using k and g with ESOT replacement cost endogenously tied to intrinsic equity value, plus excess debt/cash relative to normalized leverage.
- price_market_cap
LSE issue-based market cap differs from shares-in-circulation market cap and must not be mixed with old cohort cashflow denomination
- sensitivity_to_2026_11_06_unknown_ESOT
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 4.50476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 115.152051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 178.312950974
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- 1.5485
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.099509988322
- bear
- -0.017260447243
- base
- 0.043811209621
- bull
- 0.076791869752
- breakout
- 0.105679276749
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.02946994905
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 148.063255727
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.453118862
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04056405628
- 2
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 5.00476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 114.652051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 177.538700973
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- 0.77425
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.099022866092
- bear
- -0.016756197352
- base
- 0.044091723918
- bull
- 0.077257355979
- breakout
- 0.105732836979
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.02983840876
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 147.638932595
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.375005215
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04089361366
- 3
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 5.50476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 114.152051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 176.764450973
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- 0
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.098533222853
- bear
- -0.016249354191
- base
- 0.044580859393
- bull
- 0.077420056333
- breakout
- 0.106171395623
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.03025527468
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 147.29128428
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.313751267
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.0412711758
- 4
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 6.00476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 113.652051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 175.990200974
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- -0.77425
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.098041033426
- bear
- -0.015739892093
- base
- 0.045072325157
- bull
- 0.077885538731
- breakout
- 0.106611625904
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.03074059689
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 147.104816447
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.273900716
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04174331145
- 5
内容を開く
- esot_balance_assumed_m
- 6.50476
- classification
counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed
- issued_m
- 119.656811
- economic_float_m
- 113.152051
- initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku
- 175.215950974
- marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku
- -1.5485
- case_IRR
内容を開く
- crisis
- -0.097546272273
- bear
- -0.015227785015
- base
- 0.045566142409
- bull
- 0.078353034536
- breakout
- 0.107053538234
- weighted_IRR_arithmetic
- 0.03122822339
- weighted_terminal_oku
- 146.91668448
- weighted_payout_oku
- 96.233841601
- expected_combined_holder_IRR
- 0.04221761788
不確実性
- 2026_11_06_ESOT_share_balance
not disclosed and not inferred from weighted average
- 2026_11_06_group_equity_debt
Q3 IFRS financial statements not published: proxies only
- forward_ex_dates
all dates projected except issuer-announced plan for 2026-12-03; future annual ex/pay date not certain
- tax_options_payments
future employee option strike blended historic reference extrapolated; may differ materially; FY2026 ESOT market purchases/ESOT options amounts published but future counts not fixed
- terminal_sbc_share_price
assumed share-neutral trust replenishment solved endogenously at intrinsic price; actual cost and grants uncertain
- property_and_credit
E4 capex/credit losses are separate future assumptions; company 2026 statements are not a promise of outcomes
- future_thirdparty_issuance
crisis scenario hypothetical only
- future_dividends
January 2027 98p is planned; further payouts hypothetical and depend on board decisions and eligibility at ex-date
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 154.85
- 単価の単位
GBP_per_share
- 株価の出所
内容を開く
- id
close_20261106
- price_GBX_actual
- 15485
- price_GBP_actual
- 154.85
- 状態
confirmed_exchange_close
- 株数
- 114152051
- shares_status
dated_2026_01_31_ESOT_point_in_time_old_proxy_not_2026_11_06_actual
- 株数の出所
内容を開く
- date_reported_legal_issued
2026-10-30
- legal_issued_shares
- 119656811
- 自己株式数
- 0
- ESOT_actual_date
2026-01-31
- ESOT_actual_stale_share_count
- 5504760
- interim_ESOT_5_5_million_weighted_average_not_spot
- はい
- 計算式
119656811 - 5504760 = 114152051
- 出典番号
- 1
annual_2026
- 2
halfyear_2026
- 3
rights_20261030
- holder_cohort
all_initial_non_ESOT_economic_public_shares_holdings_initial_2026_11_06_proportional_tender_to_both_cancel_and_ESOT_market_buybacks
- initial_market_value_old_holder_oku
- 176.764450973
- parent_ordinary_profit_oku
- 9.445
- parent_profit_reference
FY2027 IFRS forecast after SBC using issuer headline PBT guidance bridge, not actual
- 親会社持分（億）
- 17.19
- parent_equity_source_status
2026_08_01_actual_plus_2026_11_06_assumed_bridge
- 非支配持分資本（億）
- 1.25
- net_debt_ex_leases_oku
- 10
- net_debt_source_status
proxy_based_on_company_oct_peak_£1,025m_not_reported_asof_2026_11_06
追加データ・検証記録
- validation
内容を開く
- シナリオ数
- 5
- annual_full_year_forecasts_FY2027_to_FY2036_per_scenario
- 10
- full_fiscal_year_rows_plus_first_last_parts_per_scenario
- 11
- period_ledger_rows_total
- 55
- annual_FY2027_to_FY2036_full_year_rows_total
- 50
- 開始日
2026-11-06
- 終了日
2036-11-06
- horizon_days
- 3653
- horizon_years_div_365_25
- 10.001368925394
- probability_total
- 1
- basis_issued_minus_esot_equals_cohort
- はい
- sum_check_all_case_CF
- はい
- all_equity_bridges_tie
- はい
- all_net_debt_bridges_tie
- はい
- all_55_operating_to_IFRS_PBT_bridges_tie
- はい
- all_55_IFRS_PBT_tax_to_parent_profit_bridges_tie
- はい
- all_five_fy2027_tax_and_equity_staging_tie
- はい
- 2026_11_06_basis_parent_equity_bridge_tie
- はい
- 2026_11_06_basis_net_debt_bridge_tie
- はい
- all_stock_bridges_tie
- はい
- terminal_fixed_point_ties
- はい
- all_cash_events_after_basis_and_not_later_than_terminal
- はい
- all_holder_CF_nonnegative
- はい
- no_terminal_recorded_twice_in_cashflows
- はい
- no_2026_august_dividend_duplicated
- はい
- zero_old_cash_sbc_release_and_issuance
- はい
分析に使用した資料
- NEXT Annual Report and Accounts for year ended 31 January 2026
- NEXT Results for the Half Year 2026/27
- Trading Statement for Third Quarter
- Total Voting Rights as of 30 October 2026
- NEXT equity price closed 6 November 2026
- Director/PDMR shareholding LTIP vesting
- Company-only interim accounts to 21 September 2026
- Company Taxation Manual CTM15205 interim dividends can be varied/rescinded until payment