NEXT plc

分析の要約

英国店舗・オンライン、海外オンライン、信用事業などの利益と投資を5ケースで予測。配当と買戻しへの比例応募、従業員信託の株式取得・交付を区別します。2026年11月6日の信託保有株数は未確認で、2026年1月末実数を代理値として使用。基準日の資本・純負債、将来の特別配当・買戻しは推計です。

要約の補足

core_view

NEXTの英国店舗は低成長・EC英国は中低成長、海外ECとTotal Platformは成長要因。ESOT実数は1月末まで確認でき、11月6日残高未確定。予測は分母代理値の感応度を明記。

pros

内容を開く

1

海外ECの成長とブランドの運営受託

2

NEXT Financeの顧客信用事業と運営ノウハウ

3

キャッシュ創出と利益率

4

買戻しに8% ERR条件を設ける資本規律

risks

内容を開く

1

ESOT発行済との混同による見かけのPER誤認

2

国際ECのEU関税と物流採算

3

与信債権の貸倒・金利・借入依存

4

E4倉庫設備投資・資本コスト

5

買戻し上限超過で £136m 還元方法は未決定

6

買収ブランド少数株主利益とIFRS売上の差

financial_reporting_warning

CEOのTotal Group Sales £7.54bnとIFRS Statutory Revenueは一致しない。CEO £1,255m PBTはNON-IFRS Group PBT guidanceであり、IFRS親会社純利益ではない。

結論の補足

as_of_2026_11_06_share_price_gbp

154.85

basis_effective_shares_proxy

114152051

basis_valuation_oku

176.764450973

company_outlook_FY2027_group_pre_tax_profit_gbp_m

1255

outlook_status

non_IFRS_group_adjusted_profit_before_tax_issuer_guidance_not_ifrs_parent_profit

expected_timed_old_holder_IRR

0.041271175803

expected_weighted_average_of_scenario_IRRs

0.030255274677

expected_10y_received_cash_oku

96.31375127

expected_old_cohort_terminal_oku

147.29128428

public_release_status

model_complete_but_investor_use_requires_updating_unknown_ESOT_Nov2026_balance_and_future_dates

事業

categories

内容を開く

1

Online UK

2

Online International

3

Retail Stores

4

NEXT Finance

5

Investments and Total Platform

6

Other businesses

disclosure_note

IFRS売上にはクレジット利息が含まれ、GTVと手数料収益を区別。部分所有子会社はIFRS連結100%売上だが親会社純利益はNCI控除。

platform_competitive_advantage

顧客接点と物流・技術のプラットフォーム化

finance_risk

credit nextpay/pay-in-3 receivable funding and credit losses must be separated from merchandising working capital

capacity_note

Elmsall4 2029 construction/2031 storage/2032 automation are plans, not booked future actuals

競争力・事業の質

profit_quality

2026 H1 IFRS reported after SBC; exclude NCI at bottom line

statutory_revenue_vs_group_sales

H1 statutory £3447.1m vs headline total group sales £3540m due to commissions, investments and minority NCI adjustments

cash_conversion

H1 cash flow after tax and before owner payments, debt and seasonal WC; company FY2027 £752m surplus guidance before returns

sbc_integrity

All IFRS net income includes SBC expense. SBC equity credit added once to distributable FCFE; ESOT replacement cash cost at market price deducted once in terminal fixed point. ESOT option proceeds are issuer financing not cash paid to old holders.

EPS_denominator

H1 EPS weighted-average issued 120.7m, weighted ESOT (5.5m), basic 115.2m, diluted 116.9m; none is November 6 end-of-day share number

nci

H1 £4.9m of consolidated profit is NCI, excluded from parent profit and terminal normalization

業界と環境

uk_retail_competition

offline wage inflation, rents, discounts and ecommerce costs; seasonal Christmas working capital

international

growth +32.2% Q3 but new EU tariff cost, regional execution and returns/marketing expense

credit

consumer credit interest income, loss provisions, cost of funding, FCA oversight

fulfilment

E4 £2.5bn additional sales capacity stated as conditional plan not capitalised separately

cost_of_capital

discount scenario dependent no sector PER extrapolation

財務・資本配分

reported_and_estimated

内容を開く

annual_fy2026

内容を開く

period

FY2026_53_weeks_ending_2026_01_31

classification

reported_IFRS_actual

売上高

69.013

営業利益（億）

12.788

parent_net_income_after_sbc_oku

8.885

nci_profit_oku

0.095

PBT_oku

11.926

income_tax_oku

2.946

sbc_expense_oku

0.431

ESOT_shares_actual_2026_01_31

5504760

ESOT_purchase_oku

1.69

ESOT_deliver_m

2.106

company_cash_buybacks_for_cancellation_oku

1.314

ordinary_dividend_expense_oku

2.865

B_share_capital_distribution_oku

4.215

segment_ifrs_sales_oku

内容を開く

retail_stores

18.88

online_uk

25.874

online_international

12.804

next_finance_interest

3.057

investments_total_platform

7.343

other_business

1.055

half_fy2027

内容を開く

period

H1_FY2027_2026_02_01_2026_08_01

classification

reported_IFRS_interim_actual

売上高

34.471

営業利益（億）

6.122

PBT_oku

5.661

income_tax_oku

1.416

parent_net_income_oku

4.196

NCI_profit_oku

0.049

親会社持分（億）

15.05

NCI_equity_oku

1.226

total_equity_oku

16.276

net_debt_ex_lease_oku

8.9

lease_debt_oku

10.04

customer_finance_receivable_oku

13.09

inventory_oku

10.854

ESOT_weighted_average_m_for_eps

5.5

ESOT_period_end_actual_m

未確認

ESOT_share_balance_status

not_disclosed_in_half_year_pdf

ESOT_cash_purchases_oku

1.388

ESOT_option_exercise_cash_oku

0.69

ESOT_equity_movement_oku

0.613

share_option_expense_oku

0.223

ESOT_equity_reserve_oku

-4.801

official_share_end_rounded_m

119.657

shares_cancelled_rounded_m

2.779

dividends_payable_2026_08_01_oku

2.067

dividend_paid_2026_08_03_oku

2.067

segment_ifrs_sales_oku

内容を開く

retail_stores

8.823

online_uk

12.394

online_international

7.604

next_finance_interest

1.525

investments_total_platform

3.604

other_business

0.521

EPS_shares_weighted_issued_m

120.7

EPS_shares_weighted_esot_m

-5.5

EPS_weighted_basic_m

115.2

EPS_weighted_diluted_m

116.9

shares_esot

内容を開く

2026_01_31_ESOT_end_shares_actual

5504760

2026_H1_weighted_average_ESOT_m

5.5

2026_H1_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku

-4.801

2026_09_21_parent_only_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku

-4.813

2026_11_06_ESOT_end_shares_actual

未確認

2026_10_30_legal_issued

119656811

2026_10_30_treasury

0

PDMR_2026_09_22_vested_shares

19887

注記

The annual ESOT count is a dated point-in-time count, while interim 5.5m is weighted-average. The Sept parent-only cost reserve cannot be converted to units without share-specific acquisition/disposal data. No post-January complete trust rollforward was identified.

q3_2026_update

内容を開く

full_price_growth_Q3

0.081

international_full_price_growth_Q3

0.322

full_year_guidance_headline_group_sales_oku

75.4

FY2027_non_ifrs_PBT_guidance_oku

12.55

EPS_guidance_pence

820.6

remaining_136m_after_355m_cancel_buys_oku

1.36

hurdle_ERR

0.08

share_price_example_limit_gbp

136.5

limit_status

issuer_approximate_estimate_not_share_count_backsolve

£355m_buybacks_prior_to_basis_included_in_2026_start_shares_not_counted_as_future_holder_CF

はい

model_basis_bridge_from_2026_08_01_to_2026_11_06

内容を開く

opening_parent_equity_oku

15.05

parent_profit_proxy_oku

2.28

sbc_credit_proxy_oku

0.115

esot_buyback_cash_proxy_oku

-0.4

employee_exercise_cash_proxy_oku

0.22

other_OCI_and_equity_proxy_oku

-0.075

closing_parent_equity_proxy_oku

17.19

opening_ex_lease_net_debt_oku

8.9

estimated_2026_11_06_net_debt_oku

10

estimated_net_debt_increase_oku

1.1

2026_08_03_dividend_cash_payment_oku

2.067

2026_08_01_dividend_liability_already_booked_oku

2.067

no_second_equity_deduction_at_payment

はい

Q3_group_profit_not_separately_reported

はい

basis_parent_and_debt_bridge_explicit_pretax_tax_finance_and_FCF

内容を開く

period_start

2026-08-02

期間末

2026-11-06

period_days

97

parent_profit_oku

2.28

tax_rate_assumed

0.25

nci_profit_oku

0.018

finance_income_oku

0.012

finance_costs_gross_oku

0.263

other_below_operating_oku

0

sbc_credit_oku

0.115

esot_purchases_cash_oku

0.4

employee_exercise_cash_in_oku

0.22

parent_equity_OCI_other_oku

-0.075

estimated_depreciation_oku

1.25

estimated_capex_oku

1.3

estimated_lease_principal_oku

0.7

estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku

0.498

estimated_acquisition_cash_oku

0

dividend_paid_august_3_oku

2.067

状態

model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS

profit_before_tax_oku

3.064

income_tax_oku

0.766

net_finance_expense_oku

0.251

営業利益（億）

3.315

operational_fcf_cash_oku

1.147

closing_parent_equity_oku

17.19

closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku

10

nci_OCI_other_oku

0.006

状態

August_2026_reported_opening_plus_2026_11_06_estimate_not_reported

basis_parent_equity_connection_error_oku

0

basis_debt_connection_error_oku

0

interim_98p_September_board_announcement_note

Board announced its intention / declaration 17 Sep; UK interim dividend ordinarily revocable until paid. No 11/06 legally enforceable payable assumed; original ledger forecast accrual at 26 November is MODEL timing, not verified IFRS liability.

shareholder_return_policy

proportional tender uniformly for cancellation and ESOT purchases. Other investors including employees participate in same ratio by share count. Bonus and option awards delivered by trust increase floating shares without new legal issuance; paid employee exercise adds corporate cash/equity, not holder cash.

financial_debt_and_lease_debt

2026 Aug net debt excludes leases £890m; leases additional £1004m. Forward FCFE includes interest and lease principal, so no separate double debt deduction at terminal.

tax

FY2026 actual £294.6m tax on £1192.6m pretax, H1 FY2027 £141.6m on £566.1m; FY2027 25% model and later projections use case rates .24-.265; taxable basis and PBT bridge follows IFRS rather than adjusted NEXT Group PBT

H1_reported_IFRS_profit_actual_oku

内容を開く

period_start

2026-02-01

期間末

2026-08-01

period_days

182

売上高

34.471

営業利益（億）

6.122

finance_income_oku

0.026

finance_costs_gross_oku

0.487

net_finance_expense_oku

0.461

other_below_operating_oku

0

profit_before_tax_oku

5.661

income_tax_oku

1.416

nci_profit_oku

0.049

parent_profit_oku

4.196

parent_equity_end_oku

15.05

nci_equity_end_oku

1.226

net_debt_ex_leases_end_oku

8.9

状態

reported_IFRS_interim_actual_2026_08_01

primary_document

half_year_2026

Q3_to_basis_PBT_tax_profit_assumed_oku

内容を開く

period_start

2026-08-02

期間末

2026-11-06

period_days

97

parent_profit_oku

2.28

tax_rate_assumed

0.25

nci_profit_oku

0.018

finance_income_oku

0.012

finance_costs_gross_oku

0.263

other_below_operating_oku

0

sbc_credit_oku

0.115

esot_purchases_cash_oku

0.4

employee_exercise_cash_in_oku

0.22

parent_equity_OCI_other_oku

-0.075

estimated_depreciation_oku

1.25

estimated_capex_oku

1.3

estimated_lease_principal_oku

0.7

estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku

0.498

estimated_acquisition_cash_oku

0

dividend_paid_august_3_oku

2.067

状態

model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS

profit_before_tax_oku

3.064

income_tax_oku

0.766

net_finance_expense_oku

0.251

営業利益（億）

3.315

operational_fcf_cash_oku

1.147

closing_parent_equity_oku

17.19

closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku

10

nci_OCI_other_oku

0.006

financing_and_tax_sign_convention

net_finance_expense positive means subtract from IFRS operating profit, PBT = operating + finance income - gross finance costs + separately identified below-operating. tax positive means subtract. Other below-operating zero because equity-accounted investee share is already inside operating profit.

future_actions

predicted buybacks conditional on 8% hurdle; if blocked assumed special distributions, not company announced.

評価の前提と確認

issuer_equity_market_hurdle

内容を開く

FY2027_headline_PBT_guidance_oku

12.55

minimum_ERR

0.08

approx_limit_gbp

136.5

not_used_as_strict_share_count

はい

理由

PBT outlook, 8% ERR, price limit use forecast future shares and rounding; cannot invert as exact ESOT shares

asof_current_ERR_using_IFRS_fy27_model_pbt

0.0719602

asof_current_ERR_using_issuer_group_PBT_guidance

0.0709984

valuation

No terminal PER/PBR. Terminal is cash flow using k and g with ESOT replacement cost endogenously tied to intrinsic equity value, plus excess debt/cash relative to normalized leverage.

price_market_cap

LSE issue-based market cap differs from shares-in-circulation market cap and must not be mixed with old cohort cashflow denomination

sensitivity_to_2026_11_06_unknown_ESOT

内容を開く

1

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

4.50476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

115.152051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

178.312950974

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

1.5485

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.099509988322

bear

-0.017260447243

base

0.043811209621

bull

0.076791869752

breakout

0.105679276749

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.02946994905

weighted_terminal_oku

148.063255727

weighted_payout_oku

96.453118862

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04056405628

2

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

5.00476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

114.652051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

177.538700973

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

0.77425

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.099022866092

bear

-0.016756197352

base

0.044091723918

bull

0.077257355979

breakout

0.105732836979

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.02983840876

weighted_terminal_oku

147.638932595

weighted_payout_oku

96.375005215

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04089361366

3

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

5.50476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

114.152051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

176.764450973

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

0

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.098533222853

bear

-0.016249354191

base

0.044580859393

bull

0.077420056333

breakout

0.106171395623

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.03025527468

weighted_terminal_oku

147.29128428

weighted_payout_oku

96.313751267

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.0412711758

4

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

6.00476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

113.652051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

175.990200974

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

-0.77425

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.098041033426

bear

-0.015739892093

base

0.045072325157

bull

0.077885538731

breakout

0.106611625904

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.03074059689

weighted_terminal_oku

147.104816447

weighted_payout_oku

96.273900716

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04174331145

5

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

6.50476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

113.152051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

175.215950974

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

-1.5485

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.097546272273

bear

-0.015227785015

base

0.045566142409

bull

0.078353034536

breakout

0.107053538234

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.03122822339

weighted_terminal_oku

146.91668448

weighted_payout_oku

96.233841601

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04221761788

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

9.50%

k_status

base_case_assumption

scenario_rates

内容を開く

crisis

0.145

bear

0.115

base

0.095

bull

0.088

breakout

0.087

方法

discounted_FCFE_after_cash_ESOT_replenishment_with_case_specific_growth_and_reinvestment_not_market_PER_PBR_reversion

事業別データ

1

名称

retail_stores

売上高

18.88

2

名称

online_uk

売上高

25.874

3

名称

online_international

売上高

12.804

4

名称

next_finance_interest

売上高

3.057

5

名称

investments_total_platform

売上高

7.343

6

名称

other_business

売上高

1.055

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

金額の単位

oku_GBP_100_million_pounds

事業の詳細

categories

内容を開く

1

Online UK

2

Online International

3

Retail Stores

4

NEXT Finance

5

Investments and Total Platform

6

Other businesses

disclosure_note

IFRS売上にはクレジット利息が含まれ、GTVと手数料収益を区別。部分所有子会社はIFRS連結100%売上だが親会社純利益はNCI控除。

platform_competitive_advantage

顧客接点と物流・技術のプラットフォーム化

finance_risk

credit nextpay/pay-in-3 receivable funding and credit losses must be separated from merchandising working capital

capacity_note

Elmsall4 2029 construction/2031 storage/2032 automation are plans, not booked future actuals

競争力の詳細

profit_quality

2026 H1 IFRS reported after SBC; exclude NCI at bottom line

statutory_revenue_vs_group_sales

H1 statutory £3447.1m vs headline total group sales £3540m due to commissions, investments and minority NCI adjustments

cash_conversion

H1 cash flow after tax and before owner payments, debt and seasonal WC; company FY2027 £752m surplus guidance before returns

sbc_integrity

All IFRS net income includes SBC expense. SBC equity credit added once to distributable FCFE; ESOT replacement cash cost at market price deducted once in terminal fixed point. ESOT option proceeds are issuer financing not cash paid to old holders.

EPS_denominator

H1 EPS weighted-average issued 120.7m, weighted ESOT (5.5m), basic 115.2m, diluted 116.9m; none is November 6 end-of-day share number

nci

H1 £4.9m of consolidated profit is NCI, excluded from parent profit and terminal normalization

業界の詳細

uk_retail_competition

offline wage inflation, rents, discounts and ecommerce costs; seasonal Christmas working capital

international

growth +32.2% Q3 but new EU tariff cost, regional execution and returns/marketing expense

credit

consumer credit interest income, loss provisions, cost of funding, FCA oversight

fulfilment

E4 £2.5bn additional sales capacity stated as conditional plan not capitalised separately

cost_of_capital

discount scenario dependent no sector PER extrapolation

財務・資本配分の詳細

reported_and_estimated

内容を開く

annual_fy2026

内容を開く

period

FY2026_53_weeks_ending_2026_01_31

classification

reported_IFRS_actual

売上高

69.013

営業利益（億）

12.788

parent_net_income_after_sbc_oku

8.885

nci_profit_oku

0.095

PBT_oku

11.926

income_tax_oku

2.946

sbc_expense_oku

0.431

ESOT_shares_actual_2026_01_31

5504760

ESOT_purchase_oku

1.69

ESOT_deliver_m

2.106

company_cash_buybacks_for_cancellation_oku

1.314

ordinary_dividend_expense_oku

2.865

B_share_capital_distribution_oku

4.215

segment_ifrs_sales_oku

内容を開く

retail_stores

18.88

online_uk

25.874

online_international

12.804

next_finance_interest

3.057

investments_total_platform

7.343

other_business

1.055

half_fy2027

内容を開く

period

H1_FY2027_2026_02_01_2026_08_01

classification

reported_IFRS_interim_actual

売上高

34.471

営業利益（億）

6.122

PBT_oku

5.661

income_tax_oku

1.416

parent_net_income_oku

4.196

NCI_profit_oku

0.049

親会社持分（億）

15.05

NCI_equity_oku

1.226

total_equity_oku

16.276

net_debt_ex_lease_oku

8.9

lease_debt_oku

10.04

customer_finance_receivable_oku

13.09

inventory_oku

10.854

ESOT_weighted_average_m_for_eps

5.5

ESOT_period_end_actual_m

未確認

ESOT_share_balance_status

not_disclosed_in_half_year_pdf

ESOT_cash_purchases_oku

1.388

ESOT_option_exercise_cash_oku

0.69

ESOT_equity_movement_oku

0.613

share_option_expense_oku

0.223

ESOT_equity_reserve_oku

-4.801

official_share_end_rounded_m

119.657

shares_cancelled_rounded_m

2.779

dividends_payable_2026_08_01_oku

2.067

dividend_paid_2026_08_03_oku

2.067

segment_ifrs_sales_oku

内容を開く

retail_stores

8.823

online_uk

12.394

online_international

7.604

next_finance_interest

1.525

investments_total_platform

3.604

other_business

0.521

EPS_shares_weighted_issued_m

120.7

EPS_shares_weighted_esot_m

-5.5

EPS_weighted_basic_m

115.2

EPS_weighted_diluted_m

116.9

shares_esot

内容を開く

2026_01_31_ESOT_end_shares_actual

5504760

2026_H1_weighted_average_ESOT_m

5.5

2026_H1_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku

-4.801

2026_09_21_parent_only_ESOT_cost_reserve_oku

-4.813

2026_11_06_ESOT_end_shares_actual

未確認

2026_10_30_legal_issued

119656811

2026_10_30_treasury

0

PDMR_2026_09_22_vested_shares

19887

注記

The annual ESOT count is a dated point-in-time count, while interim 5.5m is weighted-average. The Sept parent-only cost reserve cannot be converted to units without share-specific acquisition/disposal data. No post-January complete trust rollforward was identified.

q3_2026_update

内容を開く

full_price_growth_Q3

0.081

international_full_price_growth_Q3

0.322

full_year_guidance_headline_group_sales_oku

75.4

FY2027_non_ifrs_PBT_guidance_oku

12.55

EPS_guidance_pence

820.6

remaining_136m_after_355m_cancel_buys_oku

1.36

hurdle_ERR

0.08

share_price_example_limit_gbp

136.5

limit_status

issuer_approximate_estimate_not_share_count_backsolve

£355m_buybacks_prior_to_basis_included_in_2026_start_shares_not_counted_as_future_holder_CF

はい

model_basis_bridge_from_2026_08_01_to_2026_11_06

内容を開く

opening_parent_equity_oku

15.05

parent_profit_proxy_oku

2.28

sbc_credit_proxy_oku

0.115

esot_buyback_cash_proxy_oku

-0.4

employee_exercise_cash_proxy_oku

0.22

other_OCI_and_equity_proxy_oku

-0.075

closing_parent_equity_proxy_oku

17.19

opening_ex_lease_net_debt_oku

8.9

estimated_2026_11_06_net_debt_oku

10

estimated_net_debt_increase_oku

1.1

2026_08_03_dividend_cash_payment_oku

2.067

2026_08_01_dividend_liability_already_booked_oku

2.067

no_second_equity_deduction_at_payment

はい

Q3_group_profit_not_separately_reported

はい

basis_parent_and_debt_bridge_explicit_pretax_tax_finance_and_FCF

内容を開く

period_start

2026-08-02

期間末

2026-11-06

period_days

97

parent_profit_oku

2.28

tax_rate_assumed

0.25

nci_profit_oku

0.018

finance_income_oku

0.012

finance_costs_gross_oku

0.263

other_below_operating_oku

0

sbc_credit_oku

0.115

esot_purchases_cash_oku

0.4

employee_exercise_cash_in_oku

0.22

parent_equity_OCI_other_oku

-0.075

estimated_depreciation_oku

1.25

estimated_capex_oku

1.3

estimated_lease_principal_oku

0.7

estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku

0.498

estimated_acquisition_cash_oku

0

dividend_paid_august_3_oku

2.067

状態

model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS

profit_before_tax_oku

3.064

income_tax_oku

0.766

net_finance_expense_oku

0.251

営業利益（億）

3.315

operational_fcf_cash_oku

1.147

closing_parent_equity_oku

17.19

closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku

10

nci_OCI_other_oku

0.006

状態

August_2026_reported_opening_plus_2026_11_06_estimate_not_reported

basis_parent_equity_connection_error_oku

0

basis_debt_connection_error_oku

0

interim_98p_September_board_announcement_note

Board announced its intention / declaration 17 Sep; UK interim dividend ordinarily revocable until paid. No 11/06 legally enforceable payable assumed; original ledger forecast accrual at 26 November is MODEL timing, not verified IFRS liability.

shareholder_return_policy

proportional tender uniformly for cancellation and ESOT purchases. Other investors including employees participate in same ratio by share count. Bonus and option awards delivered by trust increase floating shares without new legal issuance; paid employee exercise adds corporate cash/equity, not holder cash.

financial_debt_and_lease_debt

2026 Aug net debt excludes leases £890m; leases additional £1004m. Forward FCFE includes interest and lease principal, so no separate double debt deduction at terminal.

tax

FY2026 actual £294.6m tax on £1192.6m pretax, H1 FY2027 £141.6m on £566.1m; FY2027 25% model and later projections use case rates .24-.265; taxable basis and PBT bridge follows IFRS rather than adjusted NEXT Group PBT

H1_reported_IFRS_profit_actual_oku

内容を開く

period_start

2026-02-01

期間末

2026-08-01

period_days

182

売上高

34.471

営業利益（億）

6.122

finance_income_oku

0.026

finance_costs_gross_oku

0.487

net_finance_expense_oku

0.461

other_below_operating_oku

0

profit_before_tax_oku

5.661

income_tax_oku

1.416

nci_profit_oku

0.049

parent_profit_oku

4.196

parent_equity_end_oku

15.05

nci_equity_end_oku

1.226

net_debt_ex_leases_end_oku

8.9

状態

reported_IFRS_interim_actual_2026_08_01

primary_document

half_year_2026

Q3_to_basis_PBT_tax_profit_assumed_oku

内容を開く

period_start

2026-08-02

期間末

2026-11-06

period_days

97

parent_profit_oku

2.28

tax_rate_assumed

0.25

nci_profit_oku

0.018

finance_income_oku

0.012

finance_costs_gross_oku

0.263

other_below_operating_oku

0

sbc_credit_oku

0.115

esot_purchases_cash_oku

0.4

employee_exercise_cash_in_oku

0.22

parent_equity_OCI_other_oku

-0.075

estimated_depreciation_oku

1.25

estimated_capex_oku

1.3

estimated_lease_principal_oku

0.7

estimated_operating_and_finance_credit_working_capital_use_oku

0.498

estimated_acquisition_cash_oku

0

dividend_paid_august_3_oku

2.067

状態

model_backsolve_proxy_NOT_issuer_Q3_IFRS

profit_before_tax_oku

3.064

income_tax_oku

0.766

net_finance_expense_oku

0.251

営業利益（億）

3.315

operational_fcf_cash_oku

1.147

closing_parent_equity_oku

17.19

closing_net_debt_ex_leases_oku

10

nci_OCI_other_oku

0.006

financing_and_tax_sign_convention

net_finance_expense positive means subtract from IFRS operating profit, PBT = operating + finance income - gross finance costs + separately identified below-operating. tax positive means subtract. Other below-operating zero because equity-accounted investee share is already inside operating profit.

future_actions

predicted buybacks conditional on 8% hurdle; if blocked assumed special distributions, not company announced.

評価根拠の詳細

issuer_equity_market_hurdle

内容を開く

FY2027_headline_PBT_guidance_oku

12.55

minimum_ERR

0.08

approx_limit_gbp

136.5

not_used_as_strict_share_count

はい

理由

PBT outlook, 8% ERR, price limit use forecast future shares and rounding; cannot invert as exact ESOT shares

asof_current_ERR_using_IFRS_fy27_model_pbt

0.0719602

asof_current_ERR_using_issuer_group_PBT_guidance

0.0709984

valuation

No terminal PER/PBR. Terminal is cash flow using k and g with ESOT replacement cost endogenously tied to intrinsic equity value, plus excess debt/cash relative to normalized leverage.

price_market_cap

LSE issue-based market cap differs from shares-in-circulation market cap and must not be mixed with old cohort cashflow denomination

sensitivity_to_2026_11_06_unknown_ESOT

内容を開く

1

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

4.50476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

115.152051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

178.312950974

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

1.5485

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.099509988322

bear

-0.017260447243

base

0.043811209621

bull

0.076791869752

breakout

0.105679276749

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.02946994905

weighted_terminal_oku

148.063255727

weighted_payout_oku

96.453118862

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04056405628

2

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

5.00476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

114.652051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

177.538700973

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

0.77425

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.099022866092

bear

-0.016756197352

base

0.044091723918

bull

0.077257355979

breakout

0.105732836979

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.02983840876

weighted_terminal_oku

147.638932595

weighted_payout_oku

96.375005215

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04089361366

3

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

5.50476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

114.152051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

176.764450973

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

0

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.098533222853

bear

-0.016249354191

base

0.044580859393

bull

0.077420056333

breakout

0.106171395623

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.03025527468

weighted_terminal_oku

147.29128428

weighted_payout_oku

96.313751267

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.0412711758

4

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

6.00476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

113.652051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

175.990200974

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

-0.77425

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.098041033426

bear

-0.015739892093

base

0.045072325157

bull

0.077885538731

breakout

0.106611625904

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.03074059689

weighted_terminal_oku

147.104816447

weighted_payout_oku

96.273900716

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04174331145

5

内容を開く

esot_balance_assumed_m

6.50476

classification

counterfactual_assumption_not_disclosed

issued_m

119.656811

economic_float_m

113.152051

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

175.215950974

marketcap_delta_versus_base_oku

-1.5485

case_IRR

内容を開く

crisis

-0.097546272273

bear

-0.015227785015

base

0.045566142409

bull

0.078353034536

breakout

0.107053538234

weighted_IRR_arithmetic

0.03122822339

weighted_terminal_oku

146.91668448

weighted_payout_oku

96.233841601

expected_combined_holder_IRR

0.04221761788

不確実性

2026_11_06_ESOT_share_balance

not disclosed and not inferred from weighted average

2026_11_06_group_equity_debt

Q3 IFRS financial statements not published: proxies only

forward_ex_dates

all dates projected except issuer-announced plan for 2026-12-03; future annual ex/pay date not certain

tax_options_payments

future employee option strike blended historic reference extrapolated; may differ materially; FY2026 ESOT market purchases/ESOT options amounts published but future counts not fixed

terminal_sbc_share_price

assumed share-neutral trust replenishment solved endogenously at intrinsic price; actual cost and grants uncertain

property_and_credit

E4 capex/credit losses are separate future assumptions; company 2026 statements are not a promise of outcomes

future_thirdparty_issuance

crisis scenario hypothetical only

future_dividends

January 2027 98p is planned; further payouts hypothetical and depend on board decisions and eligibility at ex-date

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

154.85

単価の単位

GBP_per_share

株価の出所

内容を開く

id

close_20261106

price_GBX_actual

15485

price_GBP_actual

154.85

状態

confirmed_exchange_close

株数

114152051

shares_status

dated_2026_01_31_ESOT_point_in_time_old_proxy_not_2026_11_06_actual

株数の出所

内容を開く

date_reported_legal_issued

2026-10-30

legal_issued_shares

119656811

自己株式数

0

ESOT_actual_date

2026-01-31

ESOT_actual_stale_share_count

5504760

interim_ESOT_5_5_million_weighted_average_not_spot

はい

計算式

119656811 - 5504760 = 114152051

出典番号

1

annual_2026

2

halfyear_2026

3

rights_20261030

holder_cohort

all_initial_non_ESOT_economic_public_shares_holdings_initial_2026_11_06_proportional_tender_to_both_cancel_and_ESOT_market_buybacks

initial_market_value_old_holder_oku

176.764450973

parent_ordinary_profit_oku

9.445

parent_profit_reference

FY2027 IFRS forecast after SBC using issuer headline PBT guidance bridge, not actual

親会社持分（億）

17.19

parent_equity_source_status

2026_08_01_actual_plus_2026_11_06_assumed_bridge

非支配持分資本（億）

1.25

net_debt_ex_leases_oku

10

net_debt_source_status

proxy_based_on_company_oct_peak_£1,025m_not_reported_asof_2026_11_06

追加データ・検証記録

分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。

追加データを開く →

分析に使用した資料

• NEXT Annual Report and Accounts for year ended 31 January 2026
• NEXT Results for the Half Year 2026/27
• Trading Statement for Third Quarter
• Total Voting Rights as of 30 October 2026
• NEXT equity price closed 6 November 2026
• Director/PDMR shareholding LTIP vesting
• Company-only interim accounts to 21 September 2026
• Company Taxation Manual CTM15205 interim dividends can be varied/rescinded until payment