Admiral Group plc

分析の要約

{
"investment_view": "低廉な市場PER回帰ではなく継続保険利益・損害率・規制資本・従業員信託現金支出に対する価値を評価。英国自動車の価格サイクルと過年度引当戻入の反転が最大変数。 2037以降の従業員信託株の定常買付を内在価値ベースで資本から控除するため、旧版終価を修正した。",
"strengths": [
"UK motor 5.77m risks, UK personal-lines multi-brand distribution",
"40% Munich Re coinsurance +38% UK motor quota share limits retained underwriting exposure, but changes profit-sharing economics",
"ROE high and explicit cash distribution framework with solvency buffer",
"Europe policy count and Money loans provide diversification"
],
"weaknesses": [
"Loss ratio on current underwriting year 77.6%, above headline 55.9% after reserve releases; reserve releases may not repeat",
"2026 EU insurance £13.1m one-off in H1 PBT",
"Admiral Money H1 included £7.3m loan book sale earnings and ECL exposed to macro",
"Flock £76.4m purchase incl large goodwill affects prudential ratio",
"High volatility of reinsurance QS cost and profit commissions; complex reporting"
],
"accounting_red_flags": [
"2026 H1 premium written £2.8132bn != IFRS17 insurance revenue £2.4365bn; company turnover £3.1084bn is APM",
"insurance investment asset £5.2541bn is inside £9.3429bn assets and already netted against IFRS liabilities in group book",
"Gross shares vs dividends-eligible shares vs EBT unvested must be separated",
"Cash scheme trust purchases and equity credit are capital transactions, not dividends nor a reason to ignore IFRS SBC charges",
"H1 management solvency190% vs fixed add-on regulatory173% differ, not fungible cash",
"v3 correction: 2036 terminal parent NI after SBC alone is insufficient to reconcile continuing EBT market repurchases and IFRS2 equity credits; normalized distributable earnings after share-neutral replenishment are now used."
]
}

2026年11月4日公表の消却後発行株数と従業員信託330万株の仮定を使用。11月6日の厳密な信託残高と消却効力日は未確認。予測配当・買戻し・信託取得・交付日を過ぎたら、実績確認まで期待リターンの表示を停止する。保険のIFRS17損益と規制資本はモデル仮定であり会社予想ではない。

事業

products

内容を開く

1

UK Motor and van

2

UK Household

3

UK Travel & Pet

4

Admiral Money loans, including secured homeowner loans

5

EU motor Spain Italy France

6

Other/Flock commercial fleet insurance

2026_H1_actual

内容を開く

period

2026-01-01/2026-06-30

状態

company_reported_unaudited

出典

https://www.admiralgroup.co.uk/news-releases/news-release-details/half-year-financial-report

ifrs17_insurance_revenue_oku

24.365

insurance_service_expenses_oku

-19.407

net_reinsurance_result_oku

-1.525

insurance_service_result_oku

3.433

investment_return_oku

1.122

net_insurance_finance_oku

-0.587

net_insurance_and_investment_oku

3.968

loan_interest_income_oku

0.903

loan_interest_expense_oku

-0.39

other_revenue_profit_commission_oku

1.27

other_op_expenses_oku

-1.764

co_insurer_op_recovery_oku

0.655

ecl_writeoffs_oku

-0.234

net_finance_costs_oku

-0.116

PBT_continuing_oku

4.292

tax_expense_oku

-1.003

PAT_group_oku

3.289

PAT_parent_attributable_oku

3.29

PAT_NCI_oku

-0.001

ifrs_reported_revenue_and_loan_other_oku

26.538

sbc_cashflow_non_cash_addback_oku

0.442

weighted_avg_basic_shares

301861871

weighted_avg_diluted_shares

305604323

parent_equity_2026_06_30_oku

14.983

noncontrolling_equity_oku

0.002

total_equity_oku

14.985

ifrs_total_assets_oku

93.429

ifrs_total_liabilities_oku

78.444

financial_investments_oku

52.541

現金（億）

3.149

insurance_contract_liabilities_oku

54.81

reinsurance_contract_assets_oku

10.953

admiral_money_gross_loans_oku

18.778

admiral_money_ECL_reserve_oku

1.141

group_total_loans_net_carrying_oku

18.348

total_subordinated_and_other_financial_liabilities_oku

20.131

subordinated_notes_oku

2.589

securitised_loan_funding_oku

15.223

other_borrowings_oku

2.293

company_APM_turnover_oku

31.084

total_premiums_written_all_oku

28.132

total_company_normalised_insurance_premium_revenue_oku

23.091

gross_scheme_expenses_cfs_memo_oku

0.442

ebt_share_purchases_cash_oku

0.506

parent_dividends_paid_in_H1_oku

2.742

parent_equity_at_2025_12_31_oku

14.433

OCI_parent_H1_oku

0.003

sbc_equity_credit_oku

0.442

ebt_cash_equity_charge_oku

-0.506

deferred_tax_share_credit_oku

0.063

group_risks_m

12.03

group_reported_combined_ratio

0.785

company_reported_own_funds_POST_dividend_oku

18.4

SCR_dynamic_addon_oku

9.7

own_funds_surplus_oku

8.7

solvency_dynamic

1.9

solvency_regulatory_estimate

1.73

source_of_regulatory_vs_dynamic_difference

PRA approved £24m fixed add-on, versus management dynamic unapproved add-on; own funds for dynamic also recognize earnings through interim dividend announcement.

2025_reported_FY

内容を開く

IFRS_continuing_insurance_revenue_oku

49.793

PBT_continuing_oku

9.579

group_PAT_continuing_oku

7.453

reported_parent_pat_combined_continued_discontinued_oku

7.426

親会社持分（億）

14.433

group_solvency_dynamic

1.93

状態

company_reported_FY2025

revenue_classification

内容を開く

IFRS17_insurance_revenue_2026H1_oku

24.365

IFRS17_insurance_premium_revenue_only_oku

23.091

total_premiums_written_APM_oku

28.132

turnover_company_APM_oku

31.084

difference

Total premiums written counts external co-insurer exposure; IFRS17 premiums are earned and recognised based on coverage; turnover adds non-insurance interest and revenues; none interchangeable.

pricing_volume_model

UK motor policies x average annual premium written is separately forecast, with insurer book-in-force denominator as proxy not exact average policy-years; statutory IFRS17 insurance revenue grown on own revenue baseline rather than assumed equal to premium written.

motor_2026_H1

内容を開く

vehicle_policies_m

5.77

total_premiums_written_oku

19.917

insurance_premium_revenue_oku

15.593

other_insurance_revenue_oku

0.895

IFRS17_insurance_revenue_oku

16.488

reported_loss_ratio

0.559

reported_expense_ratio

0.183

reported_combined_ratio

0.742

core_current_loss_ratio_before_prior_year_releases

0.776

core_claims_releases_ratio

-0.173

core_loss_ratio_after_releases

0.603

core_expense_ratio

0.185

core_combined_ratio

0.788

current_claims_cost_inflation_estimate_range

1

0.05

2

0.07

motor_co_insurer_profit_commission_oku

0.448

motor_quota_share_reinsurance_cost_oku

-0.799

reinsurance

内容を開く

UK_motor_MunichRe_coinsurer_share

0.4

UK_motor_other_quota_share_share

0.38

UK_motor_direct_residual_underwriting_share_approx

0.22

UK_motor_coinsurer_arrangement_confirmed_until

at_least_2026_end

other_UK_motor_quota_share_confirmed_until

at_least_2027

UK_household_retained_share

0.3

Europe_motor_group_retained_result_share_approx

0.45

contract_commutation_typical_months

1

24

2

36

caution

22% direct UK motor proportion is an approximate share of initial risk, not exact consolidated capital exposure; reinsurer margins/commutation/recoveries can be adverse and later change retained risks.

lending

内容を開く

admiral_money_gross_on_balance_loans_oku

18.778

admiral_money_provision_oku

1.141

admiral_money_net_loans_oku

17.637

group_total_net_loans_oku

18.348

H1_segment_pre_tax_profit_oku

0.133

H1_nonrecurring_back_book_profit_oku

0.073

ECL_IFRS_group_H1_expense_oku

0.234

interest_income_group_H1_oku

0.903

interest_expense_group_H1_oku

0.39

secured_loan_component_oku

6.797

risks

Loan forward flow, securitisation-backed funding and credit defaults are distinct from insurance claims reserving.

競争力・事業の質

scale_and_franchise

High recurring insurance renewals, UK comparison channel competition; underwriting disciplined but competitive price cycle.

sustainability

Moderate because past year claims reserve releases and quota-share profit commission may not recur; excess capital and trust funding constrain payout.

capital_intensity

Insurance solvency and loan receivables require capital despite high accounting ROE; UK motor significant cessions lower relative retention but create counterparty/profit commission risk.

accounting_quality

IFRS17 receivables and premium earning, CoC profit commissions and trust consolidation distinguish; we use statutory after-SBC profit.

credit_quality

UK unsecured + homeowner secured loan exposure, rising macro ECL possible; securitised financing not equivalent to net insurance liabilities.

management_and_governance

Distributes ~65% post-tax profits as normal dividends subject to capital and excess through special dividend or cancellation buyback; 2026 H1 uses £45m completed buyback.

quantified_2026_H1

内容を開く

UK_Motor_current_year_before_releases_ratio

0.776

UK_motor_core_combined_ratio

0.788

Europe_reported_PBT_oku

0.172

Europe_H1_oneoff_oku

0.131

Europe_ex_oneoff_PBT_oku

0.041

Admiral_Money_H1_PBT_oku

0.133

Money_backbook_sale_oku

0.073

tax_effective_rate

0.234

業界と環境

sector

UK non-life / European motor and consumer finance

market_drivers

内容を開く

1

UK motor repair costs and parts/wages inflation

2

Competition in car premiums and aggregate policies sold

3

Price comparison websites and potential AI-search disintermediation

4

FCA Consumer Duty and claims regulation

5

PRA Solvency UK model approval and add-on

6

Euro FX for France, Italy, Spain

7

Rate yields on bonds and loan funding, credit spreads

8

Counterparty exposure to quota-share reinsurers

9

Climate/weather travel and household claims

scenarios_reference

UK Motor reported 55.9% claims ratio is after reserve releases; a 5% UK motor claims ratio increase stresses group solvency by ~20 percentage points per company sensitivity. The scenario underwriting shock is applied on motor IFRS revenue as a proxy, not company forecast.

財務・資本配分

historical_parent_equity_bridge_H1_2026_oku

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opening_2025_12_31

14.433

profit_parent

3.29

OCI_parent

0.003

dividends_paid

-2.742

SBC_credit_non_cash

0.442

EBT_cash_purchase

-0.506

deferred_tax_on_schemes

0.063

closing_2026_06_30

14.983

出典

https://www.admiralgroup.co.uk/news-releases/news-release-details/half-year-financial-report

halfyear_reported_solvency_2026_06_30

内容を開く

own_funds_post_foreseeable_distributions_oku

18.4

SCR_dynamic_oku

9.7

solvency_surplus_oku

8.7

solvency_ratio

1.9

regulatory_estimated_ratio

1.73

capital_addon_fixed_PRA_approved_oku

0.24

tier2_in_own_funds_approx_oku

2.5

tier2_IFRS_liability_oku

2.589

basis_difference

Different capital add-on and earnings recognized to dividend announcement date.

debt_financing_at_2026_06_30

内容を開く

subordinated_notes_oku

2.589

securitization_borrowings_oku

15.223

other_borrowings_oku

2.293

total_subordinated_other_financial_liabilities_oku

20.131

asset_liability_matching_note

Debt relates partly to customer loan-backed securities; not nettable against insurer investments by treating all investment assets as surplus cash.

acquisition_Flock_2026_05_29

内容を開く

cash_paid_oku

0.764

book_goodwill_recognised_oku

0.596

capital_ratio_effect_estimated_pp

-8

状態

in 2026 H1 IFRS data already, do not subtract again

2026_capital_to_cutoff_bridge_oku

内容を開く

parent_equity_2026_06_30_reported

14.983

profit_assumed_2026_07_01_to_11_06

2.313586957

sbc_equity_credit_assumed_2026_07_01_to_11_06

0.31548913

October_2026_paid_interim_dividend_estimate

-2.138

corporate_buyback_completed_before_cutoff

-0.45

opening_parent_equity_2026_11_06_model

15.024076087

unverified_OCI_other_share_movements

未確認

注記

The last published IFRS equity date is 30 Jun; assumed linear H2 and zero further OCI/EBT purchase; £45m cancelled share buyback and £0.705 H1 dividend are already reflected in start equity, never in post-valuation holder cash.

2026_H2_profit_assumption_oku

3.3

2026_H2_share_credit_assumption_oku

0.45

model_eligible_ownfunds_at_cutoff_oku

18.4

model_SCR_at_cutoff_oku

9.7

assumed_fixed_ownfund_to_parent_equity_bridge_oku

3.375923913

prudential_forecast_limitation

Unapproved own-funds/date and the Solvency II adjustments cannot be recovered from IFRS balance; fixed bridge is a simplifying scenario calibration, not a reported official reconciliation. No 11/6 ownfunds or SCR announcement identified.

2026_actual_dividend

内容を開く

amount_per_share_gbp

0.705

ex_date

2026-09-03

record_date

2026-09-04

pay_date

2026-10-02

payment_before_base_date

はい

included_in_future_cashflows

いいえ

ex_date_status

issuer_confirmed_historical

ex_date_assumed

未確認

actual_ex_date_source_url

https://www.admiralgroup.co.uk/news-releases/news-release-details/half-year-financial-report

shareholder_cash_flow_for_2026_11_06_cohort

excluded_paid_before_cutoff

2026_45m_buyback

内容を開く

announcement_date

2026-08-06

execution_ended

2026-11-03

cash_paid_oku

0.45

shares_repurchase_cancellation_intent

1206046

included_in_2026_11_06_shares

はい

included_in_future_oldholder_cashflow

いいえ

評価の前提と確認

market_multiples_not_used_to_set_terminal

はい

market_price_gbp_input_only_initial_market_mcap_and_assumed_future_transaction_prices

39.34

terminal_model

v3: parent book + RI for after-SBC NI plus equity-scheme credit minus market-funded employee scheme award replacement, with endogenously solved 2037 share purchase cost and stable eligible outside shares

no_double_count_of_investments

はい

SBC_after_tax_profit_stays_expensed

はい

EBT_purchases_in_share_ledger_and_cash_once

はい

company_dividend_and_buyback_oldcohort_only_in_cashflows

はい

surplus_special_dividends_assumed_not_announced

はい

stock_awards_and_issues_only_ownership_and_balance_sheet

はい

pre_cutoff_dividend_and_buyback_not_future_payout

はい

valuation_discounting_method

ACT actual days/365.25 including 3653d anniversary and every dated positive shareholder receipt

reported_vs_scenario

2025FY/2026H1 company reported; 2026Nov bridge, 2027-36 annual and 2037 terminal forecasts all independent modeled guesses

2036_onward_employee_trust_cost_reflected_in_terminal

はい

terminal_formula

V=(NI_normalized_after_SBC +SBC_equity_credit -g*BV)/(k-g+(award_shares/eligible_shares)*(1+g))

return_cash_to_original_cohort_after_horizon_already_reflected_in_intrinsic_terminal

はい

no_future_EBT_buybacks_simultaneously_treated_as_dilution_and_expense_twice

はい

repeated_2036_cash_EBT_outflow_at_terminal

いいえ

sustainable_distribution_after_share_replenishment

D=NI_norm_after_SBC+SBC_equity_credit-market_trust_cash_cost-g*BV; no double counting of prior year trust repurchases

trust_shares_deducted_from_equity_and_outstanding_dividend_shares

はい

future_cash_and_CoE_are_scenario_assumptions_not_issuer_forecast

はい

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

9.00%

kind

nominal_GBP_equity_required_return

basis

UK non-life insurer: risk-free-plus-equity-risk and cyclicality, prudential and underwriting/reinsurance risk, not a market multiple

nominal_currency

GBP

not_company_WACC

Assumption, no real-time yield curve estimated

growth_guardrail

terminal_g < k for all cases

sensitivity_probability_weighted_pv_by_k

0.075

weighted_PV_oku

142.28393821997

premium_or_discount_to_start

0.19840678106324

valuation_model

fundamental_SBC_fair_purchase_price_self_consistent_recomputed_at_each_k

0.09

weighted_PV_oku

110.36575056135

premium_or_discount_to_start

-0.070428710896493

valuation_model

fundamental_SBC_fair_purchase_price_self_consistent_recomputed_at_each_k

0.105

weighted_PV_oku

89.82883062298

premium_or_discount_to_start

-0.24340385077665

valuation_model

fundamental_SBC_fair_purchase_price_self_consistent_recomputed_at_each_k

事業別データ

1

内容を開く

名称

UK_motor

country

UK

h1_2026_ifrs_revenue_oku

16.488

h1_2026_reported_segment_PBT_oku

4.569

h1_2026_total_premiums_written_oku

19.917

h1_policies_m

5.77

notes

insurance PBT before separate corporate share scheme allocations, not group after-SBC PAT; 40% coinsurance, 38% quota share, 22% retained approximate

2

内容を開く

名称

UK_household_travel_pet_van_other

country

UK

h1_2026_ifrs_revenue_oku

3.74

h1_2026_PBT_oku

0.281

h1_2026_policies_household_m

2.21

h1_2026_policies_travel_pet_m

1.75

notes

Household ~30% retained risk, others with quota share; insurance PBT before corporate central costs

3

内容を開く

名称

European_insurance

country

Spain Italy France

h1_2026_ifrs_revenue_oku

3.446

h1_2026_PBT_oku

0.172

h1_2026_oneoff_PBT_gain_oku

0.131

h1_2026_normalized_PBT_oku

0.041

h1_risks_m

2.01

reported_combined_ratio

0.887

ex_oneoff_combined_ratio

0.95

retained_insurance_risk_approx

0.45

4

内容を開く

名称

Admiral_Money

country

UK

h1_2026_ifrs_insurance_revenue_oku

0

h1_2026_pbt_oku

0.133

h1_2026_gross_loans_oku

18.778

h1_2026_ecl_loan_provision_oku

1.141

h1_loan_sale_profit_oku

0.073

notes

Financial services interest income and charges plus ECL, not IFRS17 insurance revenue

5

内容を開く

名称

Other_and_central

country

UK / international

h1_2026_ifrs_insurance_revenue_oku

0.691

h1_2026_PBT_reconciliation

内容を開く

UK_insurance

4.85

Europe_insurance

0.172

Admiral_Money

0.133

Other_including_central

-0.863

group_total

4.292

notes

Other includes central shareholder awards, finance costs, investments, acquisition; do not add segment PBT and central awards twice

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

金額の単位

oku_GBP

未確認事項

1

2026-11-06 official exchange auction close not independently retrieved, independently archived close used

2

2026-11-06 EBT exact outstanding shares not publicly verified; initial assumed 3.3m, sensitivity provided

3

Nov4 repurchase announcement says following cancellation share count, not primary confirmation of 11/06 legal-effective cancellation

4

No 2026 Q3 IFRS balance released, equity and regulatory own funds are date-mismatched proxy

5

2026 H2 and later IFRS profit/claims cost and business volume and future special dividends are scenario assumptions

6

Forecast share-based employee awards and EBT purchases are modeled, actual employee vesting and future trustees unknown

7

Forecast SCR and ownfunds are simplified sensitivities, not a regulatory actuarial model

8

Equity methods ignore further OCI/deferred tax FX and loss-carryforward details, and no future acquisition or hybrid debt refinancing is explicitly forecast

9

No exchange rates applied: all GBP; European euro operations assumed translated into reported GBP and implicitly captured in scenario growth

10

Future ex dates and corporate action dates are scenario assumptions only. Actual RNS announcements or execution need immediate revalidation of financials and old cohort ownership; assumed dates have no confirmation status.

11

2036 forecast operating profit is not issuer-reported IFRS: issuer H1 classification is mirrored; -0.408 oku GBP annual scenario normalization is included within other operating expenses to preserve existing PBT reconciliation.

12

2037+ cash-neutral EBT replenishment assumes buy at end-of-period fair intrinsic share value rather than a traded forward price; actual price may differ markedly.

13

SBC equity credit is forecast to equal equity-settled SBC expenses; no future deferred tax equity credit modeled (2026 H1 realized £6.3m).

14

2037+ fixed stock award counts grow 1.2% annually and share-neutral EBT purchases are assumed sustainable; the company may change the scheme or funding mix.

15

Crisis terminal = 0 is a franchise going-concern stress value, not a documented asset-liquidation recovery. Negative distributable cash indicates inadequate capital, and share neutrality not financeable at any positive quoted price.

16

Regulatory capital including Solvency II eligible own funds does not mechanically equal IFRS equity and its projected ratio is only a sensitivity; 2037+ capital and dividend authorization uncertain.

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

39.34

株価基準日

2026-11-06

株数

301798630

株価の出所

https://stockanalysis.com/quote/lon/ADM/history/

株数の出所

https://www.admiralgroup.co.uk/news-releases/news-release-details/transaction-own-shares-3

detail

価格・単価

内容を開く

日付

2026-11-06

close_pence

3934

close_gbp

39.34

currency

GBP

source_url

https://stockanalysis.com/quote/lon/ADM/history/

状態

independent_secondary_market_data

market_price_changes_no_predictive_input_to_terminal

はい

株数

内容を開く

published_shares_2026_06_30

306304676

published_shares_2026_10_30

305254676

cumulative_corporate_repurchase_shares_2026_09_30_to_2026_11_03

1206046

share_count_post_cancellation_per_2026_11_04_release

305098630

share_count_status

company_announced_post_cancellation_pro_forma; final effective date for cancellation not independently checked

treasury_shares_2026_11_04

0

ebt_unvested_shares_2026_06_30_exact

未確認

ebt_non_dividend_eligible_share_count_2026_06_30_approx

3304676

ebt_2026_11_06_assumed

3300000

ebt_latest_precise_count_verified

いいえ

excluded_from_dividends

はい

outside_ebt_shares_2026_11_06_estimate

301798630

old_holder_cohort_initial_shares

301798630

old_holder_cohort_definition

11/6時点、従業員信託を除く外部普通株主全体。将来の会社買戻し・EBT市場取得へ比例売却。株式交付・第三者増資には参加しない。全株主群が受け取る現金と残存持分は同じ群。

initial_old_cohort_mcap_oku

118.727581042

calculation

(305098630-3300000)*39.34/1e8

fully_diluted_future_2026_H1_weighted_shares

305604323

fully_diluted_not_issued_or_trust_stock

将来権利確定予定の株式報酬約374万株相当は外部株数や既存EBT在庫と同じではない

source_urls

1

https://www.admiralgroup.co.uk/news-releases/news-release-details/transaction-own-shares-3

2

https://admiralgroup.co.uk/share-capital

3

https://www.admiralgroup.co.uk/news-releases/news-release-details/half-year-financial-report

sensitivity_ebt_stock_at_cutoff_unknown

sensitivity_range_shares

1

2500000

2

4000000

initial_outside_shares_range

1

301098630

2

302598630

valuation_mcap_oku_range

1

118.452201042

2

119.042301042

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分析に使用した資料

• Half-year financial report: six months to 30 June 2026
• Transaction in Own Shares: 4 November 2026
• Total Voting Rights as at 30 October 2026
• Admiral share capital page
• Full-year 2025 results
• LSE:ADM November 6 2026 daily price history
• Admiral Group plc Annual Report and Accounts 2025, remuneration report page 188, employee scheme funding model
• IAS 32 Financial Instruments: Presentation, own shares deducted from equity
• IFRS 2 Share-based Payment, equity-settled transactions