Bunzl plc

分析の要約

{
"investment_case": "消耗品卸という反復購買、物流網、顧客契約、デジタル受発注と自社ブランド約30%が安定需要の源泉。一方で数量に加え価格上昇が売上を押し上げても、コスト転嫁・販売ミックス・競争が法定営業利益率を左右。買収を通じた成長は対価の支払いと負債増を伴う。",
"key_observations": [
"2026 Q3 underlying growth+3.7%; issuer attributed to volume growth and inflation. Acquisition +0.4%, fewer trading days -1.1% (constant FX reported +3.1%).",
"2026 H1 statutory operating profit £351.2m, adj operating profit £440.6m: an £89.4m difference includes amortisation and acquisition-related adjustments; statutory reported profit is valuation basis.",
"H1 2026 and FY2025 IFRS SBC expenses are NOT mechanically normalized as FY2025 included an £8m reversal. Future scenarios use fresh positive annual SBC expense; cash received on paid exercises is modeled separately for ordinary new issues and EBT market-purchase share options.",
"October 2026 Blueleaf (£58m historical revenue) and Wessex (£11m historical revenue) acquired; cash consideration not disclosed, hence 2026 payment bridge is assumption rather than transaction price.",
"The 2026-11-12 interim dividend ex-date and 2027-01-05 payment are company-announced; future ex/pay dates incl 2036-11-13/2037-01-05 are scenario forecasts. Interim announcement does NOT create IFRS payable under Bunzl 2025 accounting policy 2(v).",
"Initial externally held issued shares exclude assumed EBT shares. All disclosed voting-right share counts do not themselves give exact EBT-adjusted shares on Nov6."
],
"valuation_readout": "期待IRRは各ケース旧株主の日時別受取と同じ旧株主集団の2036-11-06終価を確率加重し、その合成CFの一意解を求めたもの。単純な5ケースIRR確率平均ではない。",
"known_unknowns": [
"2026-11-06 actual effective shares after EBT and November trades",
"post June30 BS and individual October acquisitions cash consideration",
"contract price/quantity unit granular statistics not disclosed by product/region",
"future acquisitions, issue prices, buybacks, dividends, financing and impairments",
"2036 WACC, sustainable growth, reinvestment return and market share purchase prices",
"what portion of EBT deliveries are paid market-purchase options versus zero-exercise employee awards",
"2037 onwards no official plan for market-price stock neutralisation of options"
]
}

2026年10月末発行株数から従業員信託300万株の未確認代理値を控除。2026年中間配当の権利落ち日は11月12日と会社公表済み。2036年末の予測中間配当は終点後の権利落ち・支払であり終価に内包し10年受取には加えない。2027年以降の未発表配当・株式発行・買戻しは予測上の日付で、確認日を超えると期待リターンを保留。買収の継続投資と株式報酬の補充・有償オプション収入を仮定に含む。

事業

structure

B2B consumables and service distribution, global stockholding and logistics, supply-chain execution, digital ordering, differentiated category catalogues and local subsidiaries.

end_markets

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1

grocery

2

foodservice

3

food packaging

4

cleaning and hygiene

5

healthcare and care homes

6

safety and PPE

7

retail

8

hospitality

economics_by_driver

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数量

Customer order frequency, restaurant traffic, facility utilisation, procurement outsourcing, won/lost contracts. Regional H1 volumes not separately quantitatively disclosed; scenario uses inferred percentage drivers, not absolute unit count.

価格・単価

Pass-through of plastics, resins, pulp/paper, imported consumer products, transport, wages and contract repricing, potentially delayed by customer budgets and competitive bids.

mix_and_trading_margin

Product mix, own-brand versus branded supplier mix, fulfilment density, inventory availability, cost-plus or indexed contract pricing; an inflation-only revenue gain is not mechanically a margin gain.

customer_contracts

Relationships and bundled availability/replenishment support resilience but customer concentration, tenders, switching and contract pricing caps are material; precise contract-level quantities not public.

ma

Blueleaf + Wessex historical £69m combined annual sales are already represented once in 2027 prior-cohort sales. Future new M&A revenue = acquired purchase cash / scenario acquisition_price_to_sales; current-year recognition = half year, subsequent full year and organic progression.

leverage

M&A consideration increases net debt on the cash-paid date. Debt interest is in reported parent profit. The terminal subtracts financing claims exactly once; no separate add-back of purchased future profits after enterprise value.

2026_Q3_reported

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underlying_revenue_growth

0.037

acquisition_growth_contribution

0.004

trading_days_revenue_headwind

-0.011

constant_currency_reported_revenue_growth

0.031

issuer_buyback_progress_oku_at_2026_10_20

2.25

issuer_announced_program_cash_cap_oku

5

full_year_2026_adjusted_margin_guidance_ex_2025_sbc_credit

0.076

full_year_2026_adj_net_finance_expense_guidance_oku_range

1

1.25

2

1.3

full_year_2026_effective_tax_guidance

0.26

出典番号

1

s4

acquisitions_2026_issuer_confirmed

1

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名称

Blueleaf Care

日付

2026-10-08

historic_revenue_oku

0.58

purchase_price_oku

未確認

source_id

s9

2

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名称

Wessex Cleaning Equipment and Janitorial Supplies

日付

2026-10-29

historic_revenue_oku

0.11

purchase_price_oku

未確認

source_id

s10

3

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名称

Scientifix / Ghessu Bath

日付

2026-09-01

historic_revenue_oku

未確認

purchase_price_oku

未確認

source_id

s3

deal_growth_double_count_control

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organic_rates_apply_only_to_legacy_and_prior_completed_acquisition_cohorts

はい

new_acquisition_year_half_year_revenue_added_exactly_once

はい

future_acquisitions_cash_cost_deducted_from_company_cash_net_debt_once

はい

terminal_has_no_credit_for_unfunded_post_horizon_acquisitions

はい

競争力・事業の質

qualitative_score_0_to_5_assumption

3.45

strengths

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1

B2B consumables with recurring demand

2

scale and route density

3

own-brand 30% sales and 78% digital orders in H1 2026

4

historically robust operating cash flow

5

broad regional exposure

6

bolt-on acquisition infrastructure

weaknesses

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1

thin statutory margin and potential inventory/working capital drag

2

commodity and contract price transmission lags

3

acquired goodwill and identifiable intangibles represent large balance sheet exposure

4

share count and EBT liabilities move independently

5

interest and reinvestment requirements can consume cash

6

intense bidding in foodservice, supermarket and cleaning procurement

goodwill_and_intangible_risk

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intangible_assets_2026_06_30_oku

35.691

parent_equity_2026_06_30_oku

28.34

goodwill_2026_06_30_oku

23.578

customer_and_supplier_relationships_2026_06_30_oku

10.68

2026_h1_actual_goodwill_impairment_reported_oku

0

issuer_2026_06_30_impairment_test_note

会社は2026-06-30時点でのれん減損を認めず、次12か月で重要な簿価変更をもたらす合理的な前提変更を識別していないと開示。ただし10年間のシナリオによる減損リスクは別。

sensitivity

Goodwill + other intangibles exceed parent equity, making an adverse acquisition impairment material to book capital. This is not cash outflow at impairment date and must not be deducted again from FCFF.

impairment_case_assumptions_oku

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severe

2030

2.5

2033

1

bear

2030

0.5

base

記載なし

bull

記載なし

upside

記載なし

source_id

s3

業界と環境

structural_growth

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1

food safety and hygiene compliance

2

healthcare hygiene, ageing populations

3

workplace safety compliance

4

digital outsourced inventory and procurement

cyclical_risks

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1

foodservice demand and hospitality visitor volumes

2

construction/industrial PPE use

3

public health budgets

4

retailer private-label bargaining power

5

restocking/destocking volatility

6

energy transport and resin/paper cost inflation

7

trade policy and FX

competitive_pressure

Global/specialty wholesalers, direct manufacturers, national grocers and online B2B channels; procurement bids can compress gross margins.

market_share_data

未確認

regional_absolute_product_volume_disclosed

いいえ

why_no_absolute_unit_forecast

Numerous distinct SKU and units; company reports underlying total growth rates but not a homogenous quantity denominator. Annual forecasts expose volume percent proxies by region and source-dependent segment totals.

財務・資本配分

2026_june_30_net_debt_ex_leases_reported_oku

14.323

2026_june_30_lease_liabilities_reported_oku

7.408

2026_june_30_deferred_and_contingent_MA_liabilities_off_and_on_balance_oku

2.505

2026_june_30_parent_equity_oku

28.34

2026_june_30_noncontrolling_equity_oku

0.041

2026_nov6_parent_equity_proxy_oku

27.629065217

2026_nov6_net_debt_ex_lease_proxy_oku

17.076173913

2026_nov6_deferred_consideration_proxy_oku

2.405

2026_nov6_declared_dividend_payable_proxy_oku

0

capital_balance_treatment

Net debt excludes IFRS16 leases; periodic owner FCF deducts lease principal cash after adding back ROU depreciation, with lease interest included in parent income. Terminal lease interest is expensed in sustainable NOPAT; growth reinvestment and operating maintenance conversion represent renewal of lease/other assets. Deferred contingent acquisition claims are subtracted as debt-like once from terminal EV (not additionally included in modeled D).

noncash_SBC

Parent statutory profit remains after IFRS2 SBC expense. SBC is added back only as noncash operating-to-cash reconciling item. EBT share delivery comprises assumed paid-options and zero-exercise-price awards; their combined EBT shares are purchased at market price for refilling. New-issue paid option exercises are separately cash receipts/dilution in 2027-2036. For 2037+ the terminal explicitly funds stock-neutral market repurchases for both new-issue options and EBT deliveries, less cash exercise receipts; no post-end proportional tender cash is added again.

buyback_policy

Every issuer purchase and trust refill is assumed to acquire shares pro-rata from old and new shareholders. Old holders receive actual proportionate sale cash and lose corresponding shares; the company purchase cost also reduces its cash/book equity.

issuer_total_2026_announced_buyback_oku

5

base_date_estimated_completed_buyback_oku

2.45

base_date_estimated_remaining_cash_oku

2.55

2026_11_06_exact_buyback_aggregate_verified

未確認

future_buyback_dividend_issuance_status

all_future_actions_forecast_except_announced_2026_interim_ex_pay_and_2026_buyback_authorisation

issuer_IFRS_dividend_recognition_policy

2025 Financial Statements p146 section 2(v): interim dividends recognised in period PAID; final dividends in period shareholder-approved at AGM

2026_announced_interim_cash_oku_but_no_payable

0.648914099

2026_end_forecast_interim_payable_in_IFRS

0

future_2036_forecast_interim_is_no_payable_until_payment

はい

option_exercise_cash_treatment

Cash received on NEW-ISSUE option exercise increases share capital/equity and reduces net debt; cash received on EBT MARKET-PURCHASE option exercise increases cash/equity but does NOT issue new stock. Neither creates personal old-holder cash. The EBT refill cash purchase is recorded separately at market price.

share_class

ordinary shares only, ISIN GB00B0744B38

評価の前提と確認

market_price_used_only_initial_holder_cash_outflow_and_forecast_market_refill_execution_prices

はい

terminal_valuation_uses_market_PER

いいえ

terminal_valuation_uses_market_PBR

いいえ

P_E_P_B_to_2036_convergence_assumption

未確認

terminal_framework

2037 sustainable core operating FCFF/(scenario WACC−g) minus PV(EBT market stock refill + newly issued paid option share-neutralizing repurchases - both kinds of option exercise cash proceeds); self-consistent 2036 equity-implied market purchase price using fixed point; subtract D and other debt-like claims ONCE; old cohort ownership fraction on 2036-11-06

valuation_double_count_audit

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1

2026 legacy acquired company sales and all new acquisitions tracked in distinct annual cohorts

2

FCF deducts leases once and net debt measure excludes leases; no IFRS16 gross debt double subtraction

3

Reported parent profit already deducts stock compensation; SBC is added back solely to cash and equity because it is noncash, then actual EBT market refill cost deducted

4

Company open-market buybacks and EBT replenishments are shareholder tender cash and reduction of residual old shares, never a second asset addition

5

Acquisition cash changes D; purchase price is not expensed against annual OP; any impairment enters statutory NI and equity, not current cash FCF

6

Bunzl-specific IFRS policy 2(v): interim dividend is NOT a payable at board announcement / ex date; debit parent equity only on payment. Final dividend is a payable on AGM approval; payment only removes payable and cash.

7

September 2036 forecast interim proposal carries ZERO recognized IFRS payable at 2036-11-06. The pre-ex cum expected entitlement is embedded in ending stock value; do NOT subtract a phantom liability nor add the later payment as ten-year cash.

8

New issue option exercise cash and market purchase EBT option exercise cash are separate issuer receipts, not old holder cash. 2037+ option paid proceeds offset market purchase neutralization and future EBT replenishment in the terminal economic claim, without second future tender-flow addition.

terminal_shareholder_ex_dividend_sensitivity_note

2036-11-06 is BEFORE hypothetical 2036-11-13 ex-date and 2037-01-05 payment. Bunzl actual published interim accounting policy is recognition only on payment, so no interim balance-sheet liability in 2036. Economic ex-value = cum-value minus estimated dividend attached to cohort; at post-end ex the entitlement separates. No pre-end cash, no duplicate new asset. Counterfactual irrevocable payable: EV bridge subtracts L and holder claim adds same L in cum shares, net zero.

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

8.50%

equity_cost_of_capital_proxy

0.085

weighted_average_cost_of_capital_by_scenario

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severe

0.1

bear

0.087

base

0.076

bull

0.069

upside

0.066

perpetual_growth_by_scenario

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severe

0.002

bear

0.008

base

0.015

bull

0.021

upside

0.025

comment

k is reference equity cost-of-capital, not the DCF operating WACC. Valuation uses scenario-specific WACC, g and marginal ROIC. Stock purchases and option cash inflows are equity-financing flows and are shown as a separate employee claim PV adjustment to core enterprise value, NOT mislabeled as conventional unlevered FCFF. No PER/PBR anchoring.

事業別データ

事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。

事業別データを開く →

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

28.62

株価基準日

2026-11-06

株数

311977932

株価の出所

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/BNZL/bunzl-plc

株数の出所

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/news/article/BNZL/total-voting-rights/6ac3-42-61-8c-b5-472988

detail

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価格・単価

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金額

28.62

currency

GBP

reported_unit

GBX

reported_price_pence

2862

株価基準日

2026-11-06

市場

London

状態

confirmed_LSE_official_close

出典番号

1

s11

crosscheck_secondary_url

https://markets.ft.markitdigital.com/data/equities/tearsheet/historical?s=BNZL%3ALSE

warning

Traded on LSE in pence (GBX); converted 2862/100=GBP28.62. Do not use an off-book after-hours block price £28.31.

株数

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発行済株式数

314977932

issued_asof

2026-10-31

issued_2026_11_06_exact_verified

未確認

treasury_shares_asof_2026_10_31

0

employee_trust_shares_at_2025_12_31_confirmed

3196024

employee_trust_shares_at_2026_11_06_exact_verified

未確認

employee_trust_shares_2026_11_06_proxy

3000000

outside_trust_economic_shares_2026_11_06_proxy

311977932

old_holder_shares_at_base

311977932

shares_to_use_for_market_value

311977932

reporting_unit

shares

出典番号

1

s2

2

s5

3

s6

issued_proxy_reason

latest 2026-10-31 RNS count prior to valuation date; daily November cancellations/unsettled issues unverified

trust_proxy_reason

2025 Dec31 actual 3,196,024 EBT held shares, later live balance unavailable; 3,000,000 assumed and separate from treasury

initial_old_holder_market_cap_oku

89.288084138

reference_2025_IFRS_full_year

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売上高

118.454

statutory_operating_profit_oku

7.353

reported_parent_profit_after_SBC_oku

4.592

reported_group_profit_oku

4.598

reported_nci_profit_oku

0.006

parent_equity_year_end_oku

27.89

nci_equity_year_end_oku

0.038

basic_EPS_GBP

1.415

adjusted_operating_profit_not_IFRS_oku

9.103

share_based_payment_charge_net_reversal_oku

0.035

sbc_2025_one_off_credit_reversal_oku

0.08

dividend_per_share_2025_GBP

0.741

2025_new_issued_option_cash_proceeds_oku

0.035

2025_employee_trust_market_purchase_option_cash_proceeds_oku

0.028

2025_EBT_share_purchases_oku

0.463

option_cashflow_2025_source_id

s14

出典番号

1

s1

2

s2

3

s3

latest_IFRS_half_year_2026

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period_start

2026-01-01

期間末

2026-06-30

状態

confirmed_IFRS_IAS34

売上高

59.331

operating_expenses_oku

55.819

営業利益（億）

3.512

net_finance_expense_oku

0.608

pretax_profit_oku

2.904

tax_oku

0.79

profit_all_oku

2.114

nci_profit_oku

0.001

parent_profit_after_sbc_oku

2.113

sbc_expense_oku

0.072

parent_equity_ending_oku

28.34

nci_equity_ending_oku

0.041

net_debt_ex_lease_ending_oku

14.323

lease_liabilities_ending_oku

7.408

deferred_contingent_consideration_ending_oku

2.505

declared_2025_final_payable_at_2026_06_30_oku

1.733

dividends_recognized_H1_oku

2.381

dividends_cash_paid_H1_oku

0.648

free_cash_flow_H1_oku

3.278

sbc_equity_credit_net_tax_H1_oku

0.075

bridge_from_latest_IFRS_balance_sheet_to_valuation_date

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start

2026-07-01

end

2026-11-06

days

129

classification

estimated_bridge_NOT_reported_2026_11_06

observed_balance_sheet_asof

2026-06-30

売上高

42.906521739

営業利益（億）

2.699184783

profit_attributable_after_sbc_oku

1.666483696

sbc_equity_credit_oku

0.052581522

free_cash_flow_before_m_a_buybacks_dividends_oku

2.209826087

2025_final_dividend_cash_paid_2026_07_02_oku

1.733

prior_final_dividend_equity_charge_repeated

いいえ

2026_09_10_estimated_share_buybacks_oku

2.45

2026_07_11_estimated_acquisition_cash_oku

0.7

2026_07_11_estimated_legacy_deferred_consideration_settlement_oku

0.1

employee_options_cash_proceeds_assumed_oku

0.02

2026_interim_dividend_recognized_on_declaration_oku

0

2026_interim_announced_cash_if_all_assumed_eligible_oku

0.648914099

2026_interim_not_liability_under_issuer_policy

はい

2026_interim_payment_after_base

2027-01-05

2026_11_06_parent_equity_proxy_oku

27.629065217

2026_11_06_net_debt_proxy_ex_lease_oku

17.076173913

2026_11_06_deferred_consideration_proxy_oku

2.405

2026_11_06_dividend_payable_proxy_oku

0

方法

2026年6月末IAS34にH2予測129/184日を接続。2025最終配当173.3mは6月末時点で資本認識済み、7月2日支払のみ純負債に反映。2026中間配当は9月発表済みだが、Bunzl 2025 IFRS会計方針2(v)により支払時の2027年1月5日に資本控除し、11月6日には未払負債を認識しない。9-10月買戻し245mは公表進捗及び発行株差異からの近似。11/6厳密BS未開示。

price_times_external_shares_initial_oku

89.288084138

追加データ・検証記録

sensitivity

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wacc_shift_one_percentage_point_by_scenario

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severe

1

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wacc

0.09

g

0.002

enterprise_value_oku

34.900253698

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

11.683960675

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.012778475

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

36.256609012

old_holder_IRR

-0.059420161

2

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wacc

0.1

g

0.002

enterprise_value_oku

31.351202463

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

10.599297301

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.011582959

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

32.890779826

old_holder_IRR

-0.067237793

3

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wacc

0.11

g

0.002

enterprise_value_oku

28.457339388

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

9.714872964

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.010608146

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

30.14631429

old_holder_IRR

-0.074107614

bear

1

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wacc

0.077

g

0.008

enterprise_value_oku

74.793740487

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

25.549418359

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.044386911

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

74.890128587

old_holder_IRR

0.017260152

2

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wacc

0.087

g

0.008

enterprise_value_oku

65.431214607

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

22.38326284

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.036089051

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

65.609533993

old_holder_IRR

0.006074696

3

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wacc

0.097

g

0.008

enterprise_value_oku

58.150168765

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

19.921008127

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.029789985

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

58.392204445

old_holder_IRR

-0.003530152

base

1

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wacc

0.066

g

0.015

enterprise_value_oku

136.549699995

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

49.072350682

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.138429827

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

134.430281232

old_holder_IRR

0.078205413

2

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wacc

0.076

g

0.015

enterprise_value_oku

114.612245678

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

41.158039868

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.111117541

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

112.749578888

old_holder_IRR

0.062352677

3

内容を開く

wacc

0.086

g

0.015

enterprise_value_oku

98.747862759

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

35.434693144

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.091366271

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

97.070869819

old_holder_IRR

0.049285803

bull

1

内容を開く

wacc

0.059

g

0.021

enterprise_value_oku

237.454794831

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

88.905966445

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.334880404

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

236.506566755

old_holder_IRR

0.137236522

2

内容を開く

wacc

0.069

g

0.021

enterprise_value_oku

189.533677015

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

71.148556651

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.260546111

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

189.268521967

old_holder_IRR

0.115569823

3

内容を開く

wacc

0.079

g

0.021

enterprise_value_oku

157.706654257

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

59.354894245

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.211176661

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

157.895165188

old_holder_IRR

0.098582104

upside

1

内容を開く

wacc

0.056

g

0.025

enterprise_value_oku

362.129424073

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

137.958601118

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.663216949

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

357.719877515

old_holder_IRR

0.183707187

2

内容を開く

wacc

0.066

g

0.025

enterprise_value_oku

277.799282058

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

106.005739047

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.499458531

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

274.867675379

old_holder_IRR

0.156788981

3

内容を開く

wacc

0.076

g

0.025

enterprise_value_oku

225.326774608

market_price_at_horizon_from_fixed_point_gbp

86.123799411

FY2037_net_compensation_stock_cost_oku

0.39756359

old_holder_terminal_value_oku

223.314782309

old_holder_IRR

0.136420505

base_sbc_ongoing_cash_replenishment_variation

1

内容を開く

refill_cash_cost_multiplier_stock_count_and_market_price_solved

0

cash_neutrality_reached

いいえ

fy2037_EBT_refill_cash_oku

0

fy2037_primary_option_neutralization_cash_oku

0.025320169

fy2037_option_exercise_cash_received_oku

0.03

net_ongoing_owner_fcf_oku

7.107144358

old_cohort_terminal_oku

114.625678887

IRR_with_2026_2036_events_unchanged

0.063817207

interpretation

mechanical cash-only sensitivity at fixed external share count; multiplier 0 invalid without free-delivery share count dilution, multiplier 2 assumes surplus treasury share purchases / not persistent actual issuance ratio

2

内容を開く

refill_cash_cost_multiplier_stock_count_and_market_price_solved

1

cash_neutrality_reached

はい

fy2037_EBT_refill_cash_oku

0.116214445

fy2037_primary_option_neutralization_cash_oku

0.024903095

fy2037_option_exercise_cash_received_oku

0.03

net_ongoing_owner_fcf_oku

6.991346986

old_cohort_terminal_oku

112.749578888

IRR_with_2026_2036_events_unchanged

0.062352677

interpretation

mechanical cash-only sensitivity at fixed external share count; multiplier 0 invalid without free-delivery share count dilution, multiplier 2 assumes surplus treasury share purchases / not persistent actual issuance ratio

3

内容を開く

refill_cash_cost_multiplier_stock_count_and_market_price_solved

2

cash_neutrality_reached

はい

fy2037_EBT_refill_cash_oku

0.228662363

fy2037_primary_option_neutralization_cash_oku

0.024499539

fy2037_option_exercise_cash_received_oku

0.03

net_ongoing_owner_fcf_oku

6.879302625

old_cohort_terminal_oku

110.934283565

IRR_with_2026_2036_events_unchanged

0.060916909

interpretation

mechanical cash-only sensitivity at fixed external share count; multiplier 0 invalid without free-delivery share count dilution, multiplier 2 assumes surplus treasury share purchases / not persistent actual issuance ratio

base_sbc_sensitivity_scope

Zero replacement multiplier is ONLY an instantaneous cash-input sensitivity holding share count fixed. It is NOT a feasible sustainable share-neutral strategy. To model no replacement, propagate issuance dilution; cannot omit share cost AND assume no dilution.

EBT_initial_share_count_proxy_sensitivity

1

hypothetical_2026_11_06_EBT_shares_m

2

external_share_count_m

312.977932

cohort_initial_market_value_oku

89.574284138

2

hypothetical_2026_11_06_EBT_shares_m

3

external_share_count_m

311.977932

cohort_initial_market_value_oku

89.288084138

3

hypothetical_2026_11_06_EBT_shares_m

4

external_share_count_m

310.977932

cohort_initial_market_value_oku

89.001884138

future_2037_onward_no_repurchases_issuance_dilution_policy_comparison

内容を開く

severe

内容を開く

scope

alternative_future_policy_2037_to_infinity_conceptual_direct_owner_DCF

no_future_replenishment_or_repurchases_assumed

はい

future_new_employee_shares_m_per_year

0.11

future_paid_option_cash_received_2037_oku

0

old_shares_not_tendered_after_2036

はい

estimated_old_holder_terminal_value_oku

32.891056275

share_neutral_terminal_value_oku

32.890779847

difference_non_neutral_minus_neutral_oku

0.000276428

IRR_when_old_holder_diluted_post_horizon

-0.067237124

method_limit

This changes the long-run share policy and uses a direct shareholder-growth annuity (not the same WACC-financing structure as the scenario EV bridge); shows directional sensitivity, not another simultaneous source of shareholder cash.

bear

内容を開く

scope

alternative_future_policy_2037_to_infinity_conceptual_direct_owner_DCF

no_future_replenishment_or_repurchases_assumed

はい

future_new_employee_shares_m_per_year

0.26

future_paid_option_cash_received_2037_oku

0.022

old_shares_not_tendered_after_2036

はい

estimated_old_holder_terminal_value_oku

65.562806817

share_neutral_terminal_value_oku

65.60953401

difference_non_neutral_minus_neutral_oku

-0.046727193

IRR_when_old_holder_diluted_post_horizon

0.006015266

method_limit

This changes the long-run share policy and uses a direct shareholder-growth annuity (not the same WACC-financing structure as the scenario EV bridge); shows directional sensitivity, not another simultaneous source of shareholder cash.

base

内容を開く

scope

alternative_future_policy_2037_to_infinity_conceptual_direct_owner_DCF

no_future_replenishment_or_repurchases_assumed

はい

future_new_employee_shares_m_per_year

0.34

future_paid_option_cash_received_2037_oku

0.03

old_shares_not_tendered_after_2036

はい

estimated_old_holder_terminal_value_oku

112.634649632

share_neutral_terminal_value_oku

112.749578832

difference_non_neutral_minus_neutral_oku

-0.1149292

IRR_when_old_holder_diluted_post_horizon

0.062262328

method_limit

This changes the long-run share policy and uses a direct shareholder-growth annuity (not the same WACC-financing structure as the scenario EV bridge); shows directional sensitivity, not another simultaneous source of shareholder cash.

bull

内容を開く

scope

alternative_future_policy_2037_to_infinity_conceptual_direct_owner_DCF

no_future_replenishment_or_repurchases_assumed

はい

future_new_employee_shares_m_per_year

0.41

future_paid_option_cash_received_2037_oku

0.036

old_shares_not_tendered_after_2036

はい

estimated_old_holder_terminal_value_oku

189.224739193

share_neutral_terminal_value_oku

189.268522002

difference_non_neutral_minus_neutral_oku

-0.043782809

IRR_when_old_holder_diluted_post_horizon

0.11554777

method_limit

This changes the long-run share policy and uses a direct shareholder-growth annuity (not the same WACC-financing structure as the scenario EV bridge); shows directional sensitivity, not another simultaneous source of shareholder cash.

upside

内容を開く

scope

alternative_future_policy_2037_to_infinity_conceptual_direct_owner_DCF

no_future_replenishment_or_repurchases_assumed

はい

future_new_employee_shares_m_per_year

0.5

future_paid_option_cash_received_2037_oku

0.042

old_shares_not_tendered_after_2036

はい

estimated_old_holder_terminal_value_oku

274.95402735

share_neutral_terminal_value_oku

274.86767525

difference_non_neutral_minus_neutral_oku

0.0863521

IRR_when_old_holder_diluted_post_horizon

0.156820359

method_limit

This changes the long-run share policy and uses a direct shareholder-growth annuity (not the same WACC-financing structure as the scenario EV bridge); shows directional sensitivity, not another simultaneous source of shareholder cash.

option_strike_market_price_ITM_sensitivity_rule

GBP20 assumed cash option exercise price; for 2037+ scenario terminal-price-below-strike, paid options do not exercise, creating neither cash nor new shares. Other exercise price paths are uncertain.

terminal_market_refill_price_method

Feb2037 buyback after forecast Nov2036 ex and Jan2037 pay; price solved internally as [(2036 cum equity value − forecast FY2036 interim cash)/ending external stock count]*(1+g), NOT derived from a PER/PBR or independent 2026 trading-price extrapolation.

dividend_cum_vs_ex_terminal

内容を開く

severe

内容を開く

IFRS_interim_dividend_payable_recognized_2036_11_06_oku

0

nonbinding_interim_dividend_announced_estimate_oku

0.295637079

forecast_ex_date_after_terminal

2036-11-13

forecast_payment_date_after_terminal

2037-01-05

forecast_ex_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

forecast_payment_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

ex_date_old_shares_assumption

no_additional_ownership_change_assumed_from_2036_11_06_to_forecast_2036_11_13_not_issuer_confirmed

old_cohort_expected_entitlement_after_future_ex_date_oku

0.280374625

value_of_old_cohort_ex_the_embedded_expected_dividend_oku

32.610405222

value_of_old_cohort_cum_dividend_at_terminal_oku

32.890779847

value_recomposition_ex_value_plus_expected_dividend_oku

32.890779847

amount_of_2037_dividend_in_10y_timed_cashflows_oku

0

IFRS_final_dividend_liability_at_terminal_oku

0

counterfactual_if_dividend_irrevocably_declared_ending_IFRS_equity_reduction_oku

0.295637079

counterfactual_EV_to_ex_equity_debt_like_plus_dividend_liability_oku

-3.034380536

counterfactual_old_market_value_ex_declared_payable_oku

32.610405222

counterfactual_old_attached_dividend_claim_oku

0.280374625

counterfactual_sum_equals_cum_terminal_old_oku

32.890779847

not_double_subtracted_in_debt_bridge

はい

policy_source_id

s14

bear

内容を開く

IFRS_interim_dividend_payable_recognized_2036_11_06_oku

0

nonbinding_interim_dividend_announced_estimate_oku

0.646524133

forecast_ex_date_after_terminal

2036-11-13

forecast_payment_date_after_terminal

2037-01-05

forecast_ex_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

forecast_payment_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

ex_date_old_shares_assumption

no_additional_ownership_change_assumed_from_2036_11_06_to_forecast_2036_11_13_not_issuer_confirmed

old_cohort_expected_entitlement_after_future_ex_date_oku

0.640866413

value_of_old_cohort_ex_the_embedded_expected_dividend_oku

64.968667597

value_of_old_cohort_cum_dividend_at_terminal_oku

65.60953401

value_recomposition_ex_value_plus_expected_dividend_oku

65.60953401

amount_of_2037_dividend_in_10y_timed_cashflows_oku

0

IFRS_final_dividend_liability_at_terminal_oku

0

counterfactual_if_dividend_irrevocably_declared_ending_IFRS_equity_reduction_oku

0.646524133

counterfactual_EV_to_ex_equity_debt_like_plus_dividend_liability_oku

-0.111011751

counterfactual_old_market_value_ex_declared_payable_oku

64.968667597

counterfactual_old_attached_dividend_claim_oku

0.640866413

counterfactual_sum_equals_cum_terminal_old_oku

65.60953401

not_double_subtracted_in_debt_bridge

はい

policy_source_id

s14

base

内容を開く

IFRS_interim_dividend_payable_recognized_2036_11_06_oku

0

nonbinding_interim_dividend_announced_estimate_oku

0.73803187

forecast_ex_date_after_terminal

2036-11-13

forecast_payment_date_after_terminal

2037-01-05

forecast_ex_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

forecast_payment_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

ex_date_old_shares_assumption

no_additional_ownership_change_assumed_from_2036_11_06_to_forecast_2036_11_13_not_issuer_confirmed

old_cohort_expected_entitlement_after_future_ex_date_oku

0.729394079

value_of_old_cohort_ex_the_embedded_expected_dividend_oku

112.020184753

value_of_old_cohort_cum_dividend_at_terminal_oku

112.749578832

value_recomposition_ex_value_plus_expected_dividend_oku

112.749578832

amount_of_2037_dividend_in_10y_timed_cashflows_oku

0

IFRS_final_dividend_liability_at_terminal_oku

0

counterfactual_if_dividend_irrevocably_declared_ending_IFRS_equity_reduction_oku

0.73803187

counterfactual_EV_to_ex_equity_debt_like_plus_dividend_liability_oku

1.265470846

counterfactual_old_market_value_ex_declared_payable_oku

112.020184753

counterfactual_old_attached_dividend_claim_oku

0.729394079

counterfactual_sum_equals_cum_terminal_old_oku

112.749578832

not_double_subtracted_in_debt_bridge

はい

policy_source_id

s14

bull

内容を開く

IFRS_interim_dividend_payable_recognized_2036_11_06_oku

0

nonbinding_interim_dividend_announced_estimate_oku

0.830890992

forecast_ex_date_after_terminal

2036-11-13

forecast_payment_date_after_terminal

2037-01-05

forecast_ex_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

forecast_payment_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

ex_date_old_shares_assumption

no_additional_ownership_change_assumed_from_2036_11_06_to_forecast_2036_11_13_not_issuer_confirmed

old_cohort_expected_entitlement_after_future_ex_date_oku

0.819047378

value_of_old_cohort_ex_the_embedded_expected_dividend_oku

188.449474624

value_of_old_cohort_cum_dividend_at_terminal_oku

189.268522002

value_recomposition_ex_value_plus_expected_dividend_oku

189.268522002

amount_of_2037_dividend_in_10y_timed_cashflows_oku

0

IFRS_final_dividend_liability_at_terminal_oku

0

counterfactual_if_dividend_irrevocably_declared_ending_IFRS_equity_reduction_oku

0.830890992

counterfactual_EV_to_ex_equity_debt_like_plus_dividend_liability_oku

-1.640820464

counterfactual_old_market_value_ex_declared_payable_oku

188.449474624

counterfactual_old_attached_dividend_claim_oku

0.819047378

counterfactual_sum_equals_cum_terminal_old_oku

189.268522002

not_double_subtracted_in_debt_bridge

はい

policy_source_id

s14

upside

内容を開く

IFRS_interim_dividend_payable_recognized_2036_11_06_oku

0

nonbinding_interim_dividend_announced_estimate_oku

0.9376937

forecast_ex_date_after_terminal

2036-11-13

forecast_payment_date_after_terminal

2037-01-05

forecast_ex_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

forecast_payment_date_status

hypothetical_unannounced_forecast_not_confirmed

ex_date_old_shares_assumption

no_additional_ownership_change_assumed_from_2036_11_06_to_forecast_2036_11_13_not_issuer_confirmed

old_cohort_expected_entitlement_after_future_ex_date_oku

0.921260016

value_of_old_cohort_ex_the_embedded_expected_dividend_oku

273.946415234

value_of_old_cohort_cum_dividend_at_terminal_oku

274.86767525

value_recomposition_ex_value_plus_expected_dividend_oku

274.86767525

amount_of_2037_dividend_in_10y_timed_cashflows_oku

0

IFRS_final_dividend_liability_at_terminal_oku

0

counterfactual_if_dividend_irrevocably_declared_ending_IFRS_equity_reduction_oku

0.9376937

counterfactual_EV_to_ex_equity_debt_like_plus_dividend_liability_oku

-1.033863186

counterfactual_old_market_value_ex_declared_payable_oku

273.946415234

counterfactual_old_attached_dividend_claim_oku

0.921260016

counterfactual_sum_equals_cum_terminal_old_oku

274.86767525

not_double_subtracted_in_debt_bridge

はい

policy_source_id

s14

2036_forecast_interim_hypothetical_irrevocable_liability_zero_net_change

はい

validation

内容を開く

方法

all years event-driven, date-specific pro-rata tender and ex-date entitlement; audit equations verified per calendar portion; dated amounts are GBP 100m, shares millions, year=days/365.25

scenarios

5

full_2027_2036_ten_year_rows_each_scenario

10

total_annual_rows_2027_2036

50

additional_2026_initial_partial_rows

5

additional_2036_terminal_partial_in_2036_annual_row

5

total_y0_to_y10_period_rows

55

number_of_scenario_cash_and_zero_events

656

expected_weighted_old_cohort_payout_oku

34.959992217

expected_weighted_old_cohort_terminal_oku

118.745383424

old_cohort_initial_market_value_oku

89.288084138

probability_sum

1

expected_IRR

0.065071694

expected_discounted_cashflow_NPV_residual_oku

0

weighted_mean_case_IRRs_not_equal_expected_IRR

0.053503278

all_scenarios_nonnegative_old_holder_cash

はい

all_event_dates_after_base_and_no_later_than_horizon

はい

all_scenario_annual_accounting_rollforwards_pass

はい

annual_ledger_old_holder_receipts_equal_timed_cashflow_sums

はい

payout_equals_positive_cash_receipts

はい

mcap_equals_old_fraction_times_total_equity

はい

no_future_ex_dates_misrepresented_as_confirmed

はい

2026_interim_ex_2026_11_12_confirmed

はい

2026_interim_pay_2027_01_05_confirmed

はい

company_interim_policy_no_2036_liability

はい

interim_dividend_equity_recognized_only_on_payment

はい

2036_announced_interim_is_forecast_not_official

はい

2036_forecast_ex_date_after_terminal_excluded

はい

2037_fy_interim_payment_after_terminal_excluded

はい

2036_cum_ex_dividend_counterfactual_reconciled

はい

terminal_paid_option_cash_vs_new_stock_market_offset_no_missed_proceeds

はい

terminal_self_consistent_market_price_stock_cost_residual

はい

2026_IFRS_initial_interim_not_accrued

はい

full_year_option_proceeds_enter_both_equity_and_net_debt_once

はい

分析に使用した資料

• www.bunzl.com 2026-03-02
• www.bunzl.com 2026-03-02
• www.bunzl.com 2026-09-01
• www.bunzl.com 2026-10-20
• www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-02
• www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-02
• data.fca.org.uk 2026-09-01
• www.lse.co.uk 2026-09-01
• www.bunzl.com 2026-10-08
• www.bunzl.com 2026-10-29
• www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-06
• www.investegate.co.uk 2026-09-01
• www.investegate.eu 2026-10-01
• www.bunzl.com 2026-03-02
• www.gov.uk 2016-04-16