Bunzl plc

分析の要約

{
"investment_case": "消耗品卸という反復購買、物流網、顧客契約、デジタル受発注と自社ブランド約30%が安定需要の源泉。一方で数量に加え価格上昇が売上を押し上げても、コスト転嫁・販売ミックス・競争が法定営業利益率を左右。買収を通じた成長は対価の支払いと負債増を伴う。",
"key_observations": [
"2026 Q3 underlying growth+3.7%; issuer attributed to volume growth and inflation. Acquisition +0.4%, fewer trading days -1.1% (constant FX reported +3.1%).",
"2026 H1 statutory operating profit £351.2m, adj operating profit £440.6m: an £89.4m difference includes amortisation and acquisition-related adjustments; statutory reported profit is valuation basis.",
"H1 2026 and FY2025 IFRS SBC expenses are NOT mechanically normalized as FY2025 included an £8m reversal. Future scenarios use fresh positive annual SBC expense; cash received on paid exercises is modeled separately for ordinary new issues and EBT market-purchase share options.",
"October 2026 Blueleaf (£58m historical revenue) and Wessex (£11m historical revenue) acquired; cash consideration not disclosed, hence 2026 payment bridge is assumption rather than transaction price.",
"The 2026-11-12 interim dividend ex-date and 2027-01-05 payment are company-announced; future ex/pay dates incl 2036-11-13/2037-01-05 are scenario forecasts. Interim announcement does NOT create IFRS payable under Bunzl 2025 accounting policy 2(v).",
"Initial externally held issued shares exclude assumed EBT shares. All disclosed voting-right share counts do not themselves give exact EBT-adjusted shares on Nov6."
],
"valuation_readout": "期待IRRは各ケース旧株主の日時別受取と同じ旧株主集団の2036-11-06終価を確率加重し、その合成CFの一意解を求めたもの。単純な5ケースIRR確率平均ではない。",
"known_unknowns": [
"2026-11-06 actual effective shares after EBT and November trades",
"post June30 BS and individual October acquisitions cash consideration",
"contract price/quantity unit granular statistics not disclosed by product/region",
"future acquisitions, issue prices, buybacks, dividends, financing and impairments",
"2036 WACC, sustainable growth, reinvestment return and market share purchase prices",
"what portion of EBT deliveries are paid market-purchase options versus zero-exercise employee awards",
"2037 onwards no official plan for market-price stock neutralisation of options"
]
}

2026年10月末発行株数から従業員信託300万株の未確認代理値を控除。2026年中間配当の権利落ち日は11月12日と会社公表済み。2036年末の予測中間配当は終点後の権利落ち・支払であり終価に内包し10年受取には加えない。2027年以降の未発表配当・株式発行・買戻しは予測上の日付で、確認日を超えると期待リターンを保留。買収の継続投資と株式報酬の補充・有償オプション収入を仮定に含む。

事業

structure

B2B consumables and service distribution, global stockholding and logistics, supply-chain execution, digital ordering, differentiated category catalogues and local subsidiaries.

end_markets

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1

grocery

2

foodservice

3

food packaging

4

cleaning and hygiene

5

healthcare and care homes

6

safety and PPE

7

retail

8

hospitality

economics_by_driver

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数量

Customer order frequency, restaurant traffic, facility utilisation, procurement outsourcing, won/lost contracts. Regional H1 volumes not separately quantitatively disclosed; scenario uses inferred percentage drivers, not absolute unit count.

価格・単価

Pass-through of plastics, resins, pulp/paper, imported consumer products, transport, wages and contract repricing, potentially delayed by customer budgets and competitive bids.

mix_and_trading_margin

Product mix, own-brand versus branded supplier mix, fulfilment density, inventory availability, cost-plus or indexed contract pricing; an inflation-only revenue gain is not mechanically a margin gain.

customer_contracts

Relationships and bundled availability/replenishment support resilience but customer concentration, tenders, switching and contract pricing caps are material; precise contract-level quantities not public.

ma

Blueleaf + Wessex historical £69m combined annual sales are already represented once in 2027 prior-cohort sales. Future new M&A revenue = acquired purchase cash / scenario acquisition_price_to_sales; current-year recognition = half year, subsequent full year and organic progression.

leverage

M&A consideration increases net debt on the cash-paid date. Debt interest is in reported parent profit. The terminal subtracts financing claims exactly once; no separate add-back of purchased future profits after enterprise value.

2026_Q3_reported

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underlying_revenue_growth

0.037

acquisition_growth_contribution

0.004

trading_days_revenue_headwind

-0.011

constant_currency_reported_revenue_growth

0.031

issuer_buyback_progress_oku_at_2026_10_20

2.25

issuer_announced_program_cash_cap_oku

5

full_year_2026_adjusted_margin_guidance_ex_2025_sbc_credit

0.076

full_year_2026_adj_net_finance_expense_guidance_oku_range

1

1.25

2

1.3

full_year_2026_effective_tax_guidance

0.26

出典番号

1

s4

acquisitions_2026_issuer_confirmed

1

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名称

Blueleaf Care

日付

2026-10-08

historic_revenue_oku

0.58

purchase_price_oku

未確認

source_id

s9

2

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名称

Wessex Cleaning Equipment and Janitorial Supplies

日付

2026-10-29

historic_revenue_oku

0.11

purchase_price_oku

未確認

source_id

s10

3

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名称

Scientifix / Ghessu Bath

日付

2026-09-01

historic_revenue_oku

未確認

purchase_price_oku

未確認

source_id

s3

deal_growth_double_count_control

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organic_rates_apply_only_to_legacy_and_prior_completed_acquisition_cohorts

はい

new_acquisition_year_half_year_revenue_added_exactly_once

はい

future_acquisitions_cash_cost_deducted_from_company_cash_net_debt_once

はい

terminal_has_no_credit_for_unfunded_post_horizon_acquisitions

はい

競争力・事業の質

qualitative_score_0_to_5_assumption

3.45

strengths

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1

B2B consumables with recurring demand

2

scale and route density

3

own-brand 30% sales and 78% digital orders in H1 2026

4

historically robust operating cash flow

5

broad regional exposure

6

bolt-on acquisition infrastructure

weaknesses

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1

thin statutory margin and potential inventory/working capital drag

2

commodity and contract price transmission lags

3

acquired goodwill and identifiable intangibles represent large balance sheet exposure

4

share count and EBT liabilities move independently

5

interest and reinvestment requirements can consume cash

6

intense bidding in foodservice, supermarket and cleaning procurement

goodwill_and_intangible_risk

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intangible_assets_2026_06_30_oku

35.691

parent_equity_2026_06_30_oku

28.34

goodwill_2026_06_30_oku

23.578

customer_and_supplier_relationships_2026_06_30_oku

10.68

2026_h1_actual_goodwill_impairment_reported_oku

0

issuer_2026_06_30_impairment_test_note

会社は2026-06-30時点でのれん減損を認めず、次12か月で重要な簿価変更をもたらす合理的な前提変更を識別していないと開示。ただし10年間のシナリオによる減損リスクは別。

sensitivity

Goodwill + other intangibles exceed parent equity, making an adverse acquisition impairment material to book capital. This is not cash outflow at impairment date and must not be deducted again from FCFF.

impairment_case_assumptions_oku

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severe

2030

2.5

2033

1

bear

2030

0.5

base

記載なし

bull

記載なし

upside

記載なし

source_id

s3

業界と環境

structural_growth

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1

food safety and hygiene compliance

2

healthcare hygiene, ageing populations

3

workplace safety compliance

4

digital outsourced inventory and procurement

cyclical_risks

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1

foodservice demand and hospitality visitor volumes

2

construction/industrial PPE use

3

public health budgets

4

retailer private-label bargaining power

5

restocking/destocking volatility

6

energy transport and resin/paper cost inflation

7

trade policy and FX

competitive_pressure

Global/specialty wholesalers, direct manufacturers, national grocers and online B2B channels; procurement bids can compress gross margins.

market_share_data

未確認

regional_absolute_product_volume_disclosed

いいえ

why_no_absolute_unit_forecast

Numerous distinct SKU and units; company reports underlying total growth rates but not a homogenous quantity denominator. Annual forecasts expose volume percent proxies by region and source-dependent segment totals.

財務・資本配分

2026_june_30_net_debt_ex_leases_reported_oku

14.323

2026_june_30_lease_liabilities_reported_oku

7.408

2026_june_30_deferred_and_contingent_MA_liabilities_off_and_on_balance_oku

2.505

2026_june_30_parent_equity_oku

28.34

2026_june_30_noncontrolling_equity_oku

0.041

2026_nov6_parent_equity_proxy_oku

27.629065217

2026_nov6_net_debt_ex_lease_proxy_oku

17.076173913

2026_nov6_deferred_consideration_proxy_oku

2.405

2026_nov6_declared_dividend_payable_proxy_oku

0

capital_balance_treatment

Net debt excludes IFRS16 leases; periodic owner FCF deducts lease principal cash after adding back ROU depreciation, with lease interest included in parent income. Terminal lease interest is expensed in sustainable NOPAT; growth reinvestment and operating maintenance conversion represent renewal of lease/other assets. Deferred contingent acquisition claims are subtracted as debt-like once from terminal EV (not additionally included in modeled D).

noncash_SBC

Parent statutory profit remains after IFRS2 SBC expense. SBC is added back only as noncash operating-to-cash reconciling item. EBT share delivery comprises assumed paid-options and zero-exercise-price awards; their combined EBT shares are purchased at market price for refilling. New-issue paid option exercises are separately cash receipts/dilution in 2027-2036. For 2037+ the terminal explicitly funds stock-neutral market repurchases for both new-issue options and EBT deliveries, less cash exercise receipts; no post-end proportional tender cash is added again.

buyback_policy

Every issuer purchase and trust refill is assumed to acquire shares pro-rata from old and new shareholders. Old holders receive actual proportionate sale cash and lose corresponding shares; the company purchase cost also reduces its cash/book equity.

issuer_total_2026_announced_buyback_oku

5

base_date_estimated_completed_buyback_oku

2.45

base_date_estimated_remaining_cash_oku

2.55

2026_11_06_exact_buyback_aggregate_verified

未確認

future_buyback_dividend_issuance_status

all_future_actions_forecast_except_announced_2026_interim_ex_pay_and_2026_buyback_authorisation

issuer_IFRS_dividend_recognition_policy

2025 Financial Statements p146 section 2(v): interim dividends recognised in period PAID; final dividends in period shareholder-approved at AGM

2026_announced_interim_cash_oku_but_no_payable

0.648914099

2026_end_forecast_interim_payable_in_IFRS

0

future_2036_forecast_interim_is_no_payable_until_payment

はい

option_exercise_cash_treatment

Cash received on NEW-ISSUE option exercise increases share capital/equity and reduces net debt; cash received on EBT MARKET-PURCHASE option exercise increases cash/equity but does NOT issue new stock. Neither creates personal old-holder cash. The EBT refill cash purchase is recorded separately at market price.

share_class

ordinary shares only, ISIN GB00B0744B38

評価の前提と確認

market_price_used_only_initial_holder_cash_outflow_and_forecast_market_refill_execution_prices

はい

terminal_valuation_uses_market_PER

いいえ

terminal_valuation_uses_market_PBR

いいえ

P_E_P_B_to_2036_convergence_assumption

未確認

terminal_framework

2037 sustainable core operating FCFF/(scenario WACC−g) minus PV(EBT market stock refill + newly issued paid option share-neutralizing repurchases - both kinds of option exercise cash proceeds); self-consistent 2036 equity-implied market purchase price using fixed point; subtract D and other debt-like claims ONCE; old cohort ownership fraction on 2036-11-06

valuation_double_count_audit

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1

2026 legacy acquired company sales and all new acquisitions tracked in distinct annual cohorts

2

FCF deducts leases once and net debt measure excludes leases; no IFRS16 gross debt double subtraction

3

Reported parent profit already deducts stock compensation; SBC is added back solely to cash and equity because it is noncash, then actual EBT market refill cost deducted

4

Company open-market buybacks and EBT replenishments are shareholder tender cash and reduction of residual old shares, never a second asset addition

5

Acquisition cash changes D; purchase price is not expensed against annual OP; any impairment enters statutory NI and equity, not current cash FCF

6

Bunzl-specific IFRS policy 2(v): interim dividend is NOT a payable at board announcement / ex date; debit parent equity only on payment. Final dividend is a payable on AGM approval; payment only removes payable and cash.

7

September 2036 forecast interim proposal carries ZERO recognized IFRS payable at 2036-11-06. The pre-ex cum expected entitlement is embedded in ending stock value; do NOT subtract a phantom liability nor add the later payment as ten-year cash.

8

New issue option exercise cash and market purchase EBT option exercise cash are separate issuer receipts, not old holder cash. 2037+ option paid proceeds offset market purchase neutralization and future EBT replenishment in the terminal economic claim, without second future tender-flow addition.

terminal_shareholder_ex_dividend_sensitivity_note

2036-11-06 is BEFORE hypothetical 2036-11-13 ex-date and 2037-01-05 payment. Bunzl actual published interim accounting policy is recognition only on payment, so no interim balance-sheet liability in 2036. Economic ex-value = cum-value minus estimated dividend attached to cohort; at post-end ex the entitlement separates. No pre-end cash, no duplicate new asset. Counterfactual irrevocable payable: EV bridge subtracts L and holder claim adds same L in cum shares, net zero.

資本コストの前提

資本コスト

8.50%

equity_cost_of_capital_proxy

0.085

weighted_average_cost_of_capital_by_scenario

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severe

0.1

bear

0.087

base

0.076

bull

0.069

upside

0.066

perpetual_growth_by_scenario

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severe

0.002

bear

0.008

base

0.015

bull

0.021

upside

0.025

comment

k is reference equity cost-of-capital, not the DCF operating WACC. Valuation uses scenario-specific WACC, g and marginal ROIC. Stock purchases and option cash inflows are equity-financing flows and are shown as a separate employee claim PV adjustment to core enterprise value, NOT mislabeled as conventional unlevered FCFF. No PER/PBR anchoring.

事業別データ

accounting_warning

Segment profits below are company adjusted operating profit, NOT IFRS consolidated operating profit. Group central and acquisition amortization separate in IFRS OP.

fy2025_region

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North America

rev

62.767

adj_op

4.405

underlying_growth

-0.003

Continental Europe

rev

24.42

adj_op

2.047

underlying_growth

0.003

UK & Ireland

rev

18.836

adj_op

1.531

underlying_growth

0.014

Rest of World

rev

12.431

adj_op

1.453

underlying_growth

0.035

h1_2026_region

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North America

rev

30.624

adj_op

1.994

underlying_growth

0.046

Continental Europe

rev

12.694

adj_op

1.067

underlying_growth

0.021

UK & Ireland

rev

9.241

adj_op

0.656

underlying_growth

0.013

Rest of World

rev

6.772

adj_op

0.857

underlying_growth

0.019

fy2026_scenario_base_proxy_revenues_oku

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North America

62.2

Continental Europe

25.4

UK & Ireland

19.1

Rest of World

13.831

fy2026_existing_legacy_proxy_revenues_oku

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North America

62.2

Continental Europe

25.4

UK & Ireland

18.95

Rest of World

13.831

inferred_product_unit_volume

未確認

planned_regional_volume_price_fx_decomposition

See each case annual_ledger[0..9].segment_volume_price_fx_and_mna_annual_forecast. All scenario assumptions, not disclosed physical-unit totals.

10年のシナリオ

シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。

分析基準とデータ

価格・単価

28.62

株価基準日

2026-11-06

株数

311977932

株価の出所

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/BNZL/bunzl-plc

株数の出所

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/news/article/BNZL/total-voting-rights/6ac3-42-61-8c-b5-472988

detail

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価格・単価

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金額

28.62

currency

GBP

reported_unit

GBX

reported_price_pence

2862

株価基準日

2026-11-06

市場

London

状態

confirmed_LSE_official_close

出典番号

1

s11

crosscheck_secondary_url

https://markets.ft.markitdigital.com/data/equities/tearsheet/historical?s=BNZL%3ALSE

warning

Traded on LSE in pence (GBX); converted 2862/100=GBP28.62. Do not use an off-book after-hours block price £28.31.

株数

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発行済株式数

314977932

issued_asof

2026-10-31

issued_2026_11_06_exact_verified

未確認

treasury_shares_asof_2026_10_31

0

employee_trust_shares_at_2025_12_31_confirmed

3196024

employee_trust_shares_at_2026_11_06_exact_verified

未確認

employee_trust_shares_2026_11_06_proxy

3000000

outside_trust_economic_shares_2026_11_06_proxy

311977932

old_holder_shares_at_base

311977932

shares_to_use_for_market_value

311977932

reporting_unit

shares

出典番号

1

s2

2

s5

3

s6

issued_proxy_reason

latest 2026-10-31 RNS count prior to valuation date; daily November cancellations/unsettled issues unverified

trust_proxy_reason

2025 Dec31 actual 3,196,024 EBT held shares, later live balance unavailable; 3,000,000 assumed and separate from treasury

initial_old_holder_market_cap_oku

89.288084138

reference_2025_IFRS_full_year

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売上高

118.454

statutory_operating_profit_oku

7.353

reported_parent_profit_after_SBC_oku

4.592

reported_group_profit_oku

4.598

reported_nci_profit_oku

0.006

parent_equity_year_end_oku

27.89

nci_equity_year_end_oku

0.038

basic_EPS_GBP

1.415

adjusted_operating_profit_not_IFRS_oku

9.103

share_based_payment_charge_net_reversal_oku

0.035

sbc_2025_one_off_credit_reversal_oku

0.08

dividend_per_share_2025_GBP

0.741

2025_new_issued_option_cash_proceeds_oku

0.035

2025_employee_trust_market_purchase_option_cash_proceeds_oku

0.028

2025_EBT_share_purchases_oku

0.463

option_cashflow_2025_source_id

s14

出典番号

1

s1

2

s2

3

s3

latest_IFRS_half_year_2026

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period_start

2026-01-01

期間末

2026-06-30

状態

confirmed_IFRS_IAS34

売上高

59.331

operating_expenses_oku

55.819

営業利益（億）

3.512

net_finance_expense_oku

0.608

pretax_profit_oku

2.904

tax_oku

0.79

profit_all_oku

2.114

nci_profit_oku

0.001

parent_profit_after_sbc_oku

2.113

sbc_expense_oku

0.072

parent_equity_ending_oku

28.34

nci_equity_ending_oku

0.041

net_debt_ex_lease_ending_oku

14.323

lease_liabilities_ending_oku

7.408

deferred_contingent_consideration_ending_oku

2.505

declared_2025_final_payable_at_2026_06_30_oku

1.733

dividends_recognized_H1_oku

2.381

dividends_cash_paid_H1_oku

0.648

free_cash_flow_H1_oku

3.278

sbc_equity_credit_net_tax_H1_oku

0.075

bridge_from_latest_IFRS_balance_sheet_to_valuation_date

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start

2026-07-01

end

2026-11-06

days

129

classification

estimated_bridge_NOT_reported_2026_11_06

observed_balance_sheet_asof

2026-06-30

売上高

42.906521739

営業利益（億）

2.699184783

profit_attributable_after_sbc_oku

1.666483696

sbc_equity_credit_oku

0.052581522

free_cash_flow_before_m_a_buybacks_dividends_oku

2.209826087

2025_final_dividend_cash_paid_2026_07_02_oku

1.733

prior_final_dividend_equity_charge_repeated

いいえ

2026_09_10_estimated_share_buybacks_oku

2.45

2026_07_11_estimated_acquisition_cash_oku

0.7

2026_07_11_estimated_legacy_deferred_consideration_settlement_oku

0.1

employee_options_cash_proceeds_assumed_oku

0.02

2026_interim_dividend_recognized_on_declaration_oku

0

2026_interim_announced_cash_if_all_assumed_eligible_oku

0.648914099

2026_interim_not_liability_under_issuer_policy

はい

2026_interim_payment_after_base

2027-01-05

2026_11_06_parent_equity_proxy_oku

27.629065217

2026_11_06_net_debt_proxy_ex_lease_oku

17.076173913

2026_11_06_deferred_consideration_proxy_oku

2.405

2026_11_06_dividend_payable_proxy_oku

0

方法

2026年6月末IAS34にH2予測129/184日を接続。2025最終配当173.3mは6月末時点で資本認識済み、7月2日支払のみ純負債に反映。2026中間配当は9月発表済みだが、Bunzl 2025 IFRS会計方針2(v)により支払時の2027年1月5日に資本控除し、11月6日には未払負債を認識しない。9-10月買戻し245mは公表進捗及び発行株差異からの近似。11/6厳密BS未開示。

price_times_external_shares_initial_oku

89.288084138

追加データ・検証記録

分析ごとに収録された追加の前提、年度別データ、検証上の注意を確認できます。

追加データを開く →

分析に使用した資料

• www.bunzl.com 2026-03-02
• www.bunzl.com 2026-03-02
• www.bunzl.com 2026-09-01
• www.bunzl.com 2026-10-20
• www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-02
• www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-02
• data.fca.org.uk 2026-09-01
• www.lse.co.uk 2026-09-01
• www.bunzl.com 2026-10-08
• www.bunzl.com 2026-10-29
• www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-06
• www.investegate.co.uk 2026-09-01
• www.investegate.eu 2026-10-01
• www.bunzl.com 2026-03-02
• www.gov.uk 2016-04-16