AI 銘柄分析 · 10年
United Utilities Group PLC
UU. · GBP · 分析基準日 2026-11-06
{ "title": "規制RCVは現金ではない。AMP8の料金・設備更新の成果と高投資負担を旧株主持分に反映", "rating": "valuation_derived_not_price_target", "quoted_price_gbp": 15.43, "scenario_expected_present_value_oku": 83.013637241, "scenario_expected_value_per_initial_share_gbp": 11.174809132, "expected_value_to_market_price": 0.724226127, "expected_10y_money_weighted_IRR": 0.044169078, "as_of_book_equity_status": "proxy", "core_uncertainty": "規制リオープナー最終決定と今後のPR29料金、更新・成長投資の回収、インフレリンク債、2026-11-06信託株数" }
AIによるシナリオ分析です。基準日以降の出来事、株価や為替の変化は個別に確認が必要です。各数値は元の分析の単位と前提に従います。
分析の要約
株価15.43 GBP・2026-11-06基準。2026年5月発行済普通株742,864,028株を代理値に使用し、基準日の従業員信託残高は未確認。将来配当・増資は予測で、想定イベント日以降は再分析が必要。サイトの終価割引は10年固定（実日数3653/365.25の約10.00137年との差は近似）。
分析基準日2026-11-06。株数は2026年5月5日の増資後の発行株数を代理値として使用し、当日の従業員信託保有株数は未確認。未宣言の配当額と権利落ち日は予測。予測イベント到来後は再分析が必要。
{
"investment_thesis": "北西イングランドで規制された水道・下水サービスを提供する必需事業。PR24により投資・料金回収の可視性は上がったが、支出超過、ODI、環境義務、資本希薄化が普通株の真の価値を左右する。",
"financing": "2026-05-05調達のネット£788mは基準日前の既実施資本流入。以後の調達はシナリオ仮定。",
"income_quality": "FY2026連結親会社利益はIFRS £586.8m。SBC £4.5mは費用のまま。FY2026 underlying EPSは会計見積変更・インフラ更新の資産計上による押上げがあるため永久利益に無修正で乗じない。",
"dividend_timing": "2026-08-03支払最終配当は基準日前に全額消化済み。2027-02-01次回予定は配当額未確定のためシナリオ予測。2026-12-17除権予定は配当宣言確認済みのex_dateとは区別。",
"regulatory_vs_ifrs": "RCVは規制料金・減価償却・許容リターン計算に用いる資産価値で株主現金でない。IFRS equity, net financial debt, regulatory gearing, RCVを同一金額として換算しない。",
"highest_priority_checks": [
"2026年11月6日実効普通株数（従業員信託残高・5月以降の新株）",
"2026年9月末未公表中間財務の実際の純負債・IFRS親会社資本",
"2026年12月Ofwatリオープナー最終結論",
"環境罰金・係争/投資義務・IFRSの引当計上時点",
"2030年以降PR29の新料金収益認定"
]
}
事業
- geography
England North West
- customer_base
約800万人／人口ベースの生活基盤
- core
United Utilities Water Ltdの水道・下水卸売と家計小売
- revenue_sources
内容を開く
- 1
水道卸売の規制料金
- 2
下水卸売の規制料金
- 3
家庭向けリテール料金
- 4
その他接続・工事関連収入
- economic_characteristics
安定した顧客需要、長寿命資産、投資/料金はOfwat規制、環境処理性能を満たさないとODI減額・違反制裁。料金請求権はRCVが換金できることを意味しない。
- regulatory_periods
- 1
AMP8 2025-04-01 to 2030-03-31
- 2
AMP9 2030-04-01 to 2035-03-31: future PR29 price control terms assumed not yet confirmed
- 3
AMP10 2035-04-01 onward: entirely forecast
- allowed_revenue_mechanics
PR24を起点にallowed returns on nominalized RCV, RCV run-off, totex allowances, inflation, regulatory adjustments and ODIs; not all spending becomes RCV automatically.
- inflation_linked_debt
FY26管理上RPI-linked債務エクスポージャ約£3.2bn、CPI/CPIH約£1.4bn。債務元本のインデクセーションは現金利払いと区別。FY26 EIR推計法変更が実績会計に影響。
- competitive_position
地域独占型の管路インフラ、ネットワーク規模と水処理専門性。ただし顧客移転による競争ではなく、競争的調達、Ofwat効率比較、債券投資家の審査が規律する。
競争力・事業の質
- sector_stability_score_0_to_5
- 4.1
- regulatory_visibility_score_0_to_5
- 3.4
- financial_flexibility_score_0_to_5
- 2.7
- governance_and_environment_score_0_to_5
- 2.2
- return_on_equity_caution
IFRS book equity is small relative to large long-lived RCV / debt financing. IFRS PAT/book equity is not a valid uncontested sustainable economic return or terminal market P/B anchor.
- environmental_performance
FY26 storm spills declined 23% YoY, internal sewer flooding 42% down, but Ofwat estimate FY26 net ODI penalty ~£35m; future improvement targets binding.
- enforcement_asof
- verified_2026_09_08_fine_oku
- 0.009
- fine_legal_surcharge_total_oku
- 0.00964225
- further_ofwat_environment_investigation
未確定の追加罰金額は特定不能。モデルではシナリオ期待負担として費用計上;実際の確定負債ではない。
- accounting_quality
FY2026 IRE capitalisation and debt EIR methodology change affected underlying comparability; forecast IFRS profit explicitly contains employee SBC expense and noncash bond indexation.
業界と環境
- regulator
Ofwat (UK water England/Wales)
- price_review
PR24 final December 2024, 2025-30
- allowed_appointee_WACC_CPIH_real
- 0.0403
- regulatory_notional_debt_fraction
- 0.55
- ofwat_pr24_total_TOTEX_allowance_oku
- 130
- company_new_AMP8_capital_investment_guidance_oku
- 115
- FY2027_company_capital_investment_guidance_oku
- 20
- 2026_cost_change_DRAFT_in_2022_23_prices_oku
- 9.58
- 2026_company_cost_change_response_in_2022_23_prices_oku
- 10.26
- management_incremental_reopener_AMP8_capex_oku
- 25
- cost_change_final_decision_due
2026-12 (after valuation cutoff; not assumed approved)
- environmental_PR24_targets
内容を開く
- storm_overflows_spill_reduction
- 0.33
- pollution_incidents_reduction
- 0.3
- leakage_reduction
- 0.13
- internal_sewer_flooding_reduction
- 0.4
- water_quality_contacts_reduction
- 0.34
- risk_drivers
内容を開く
- 1
PR29再設定と利回り低下
- 2
RPI/CPIHと規制料金回収ラグ
- 3
設備建設コストとサプライチェーン
- 4
過剰流出や河川環境規制/罰金
- 5
資本増資と配当制限
- 6
定率維持投資と資産劣化
- 7
Water Plus事業持分損失・保証
財務・資本配分
- latest_financials_source
fy26_preliminary
- latest_audited_report_disclosed
2026-06-24 FY26 full report; exact detailed re-audit of preliminary table uncompleted
- fy2026_as_reported
内容を開く
- fiscal_year_end
2026-03-31
- 売上高
- 26.163
- cash_operating_expense_including_sbc_oku
- 9.783
- infrastructure_renewal_expense_oku
- 0.381
- depreciation_and_amortization_oku
- 5.005
- 営業利益（億）
- 10.994
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 3.158
- equity_accounted_jv_loss_oku
- 0.046
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 7.79
- tax_expense_oku
- 1.922
- attributable_profit_oku
- 5.868
- 親会社持分（億）
- 22.414
- total_equity_oku
- 22.414
- noncontrolling_interest_oku
- 0
- cash_and_equivalents_oku
- 17.943
- current_borrowings_oku
- 1.649
- non_current_borrowings_oku
- 113.257
- gross_borrowings_oku
- 114.906
- regulatory_net_debt_oku
- 99.43
- ifrs_net_debt_reported_oku
- 96.58
- adjusted_rcv_oku
- 165.27
- capital_investment_regulatory_oku
- 15.251
- ppe_cash_purchases_oku
- 14.921
- reported_cfo_oku
- 13.819
- equity_settled_sbc_charge_oku
- 0.045
- employee_share_purchases_for_options_oku
- 0.058
- paid_dividends_oku
- 3.576
- dividends_per_share_pence
- 53.66
- interim_paid_pence
- 17.88
- final_paid_pence
- 35.78
- historical_revenue_by_service_oku
内容を開く
- wholesale_clean_water
- 10.739
- wholesale_wastewater
- 13.626
- household_retail
- 1.36
- other
- 0.438
- FY2026_equity_changes_oku
内容を開く
- opening_2025_03_31
- 19.999
- attributable_pat_after_sbc
- 5.868
- other_comprehensive_income
- 0.132
- dividends_paid
- -3.576
- sbc_equity_settled_credit
- 0.045
- shares_bought_for_options_market
- -0.058
- share_forfeiture_receipts
- 0.004
- ending_2026_03_31
- 22.414
- check_residual
- 0
- reported_2026_March_balance_sheet
内容を開く
- ifrs_book_equity_oku
- 22.414
- noncontrolling_interest_oku
- 0
- gross_borrowings_oku
- 114.906
- cash_and_equivalents_oku
- 17.943
- simple_gross_borrowings_minus_cash_oku
- 96.963
- reported_IFRS_net_debt_oku
- 96.58
- management_rcv_gearing_debt_oku
- 99.43
- adjusted_rcv_oku
- 165.27
- regulatory_gearing
- 0.601621589
- reported_income_statement_tax_oku
- 1.922
- loan_and_hedge_fair_value_reconciliation_not_fully_traceable
- はい
- warning
IFRS net debt, debt less cash, and regulatory net debt follow different definitions. No automatic substitution.
- ordinary_and_deferred_share_structure
内容を開く
- ordinary_as_of_2026_05_05
- 742864028
- deferred_share_class_count
- 273956180
- deferred_share_class_not_valued_as_ordinary
- はい
- shares_in_employee_trust_at_2026_11_06
- 未確認
- company_treasury_as_of_2026_05_05
- 0
- dividend_history_and_cutoff
- 1
内容を開く
- period
FY2025/26 interim
- per_share_pence
- 17.88
- ex_date
2025-12-18
- payment_date
2026-02-02
- after_valuation_cutoff
- いいえ
- included_forecast_CF
- いいえ
- 2
内容を開く
- period
FY2025/26 final
- per_share_pence
- 35.78
- ex_date
2026-06-25
- payment_date
2026-08-03
- after_valuation_cutoff
- いいえ
- included_forecast_CF
- いいえ
- 3
内容を開く
- period
FY2026/27 interim
- per_share_pence
- 未確認
- ex_date
- 未確認
- scheduled_ex_date
2026-12-17
- scheduled_payment_date
2027-02-01
- after_valuation_cutoff
- はい
- included_forecast_CF
amount estimated in all five cases
- buyback_policy_and_sbc
No ordinary corporate share repurchase forecast. Employee benefit trust historically buys issued shares on market to satisfy equity awards. Share purchase is company cash outflow and transfer can dilute original holders without company share cancellation. IFRS2 expense remains in profit and noncash equity credit reverses expense in statement of changes in equity.
- 2026_11_06_opening_proxy_bridge
内容を開く
- period
2026-04-01 to 2026-11-06
- days
- 220
- 状態
推計・代理値。2026年9月末中間決算は11月12日発表予定のため2026-11-06時点で利用不可
- from_2026_03_31
内容を開く
- 親会社持分（億）
- 22.414
- regulatory_net_debt_oku
- 99.43
- adjusted_rcv_oku
- 165.27
- ordinary_shares
- 681888418
- verified_event_2026_05_05
内容を開く
- new_ordinary_shares
- 60975610
- price_gbp
- 13.12
- gross_proceeds_oku
- 8
- net_proceeds_oku
- 7.88
- post_issue_ordinary_shares
- 742864028
- company_treasury_shares
- 0
- last_verified_count_date
2026-07-17
- verified_final_dividend_paid_2026_08_03
内容を開く
- cash_outflow_oku
- 2.657967492
- per_share_gbp
- 0.3578
- ex_date
2026-06-25
- from_march_equity_dividend_liability
2026-03-31未認識。会社決算注記9に従い承認後に控除
- assumed_profit_before_september_court_fine_oku
- 3.495890411
- recognized_september_2026_court_fine_assumed_paid_oku
- 0.00964225
- assumed_profit_after_court_fine_oku
- 3.486248161
- court_fine_cash_settlement_unverified
- はい
- assumed_equity_sbc_credit_oku
- 0.027123288
- assumed_employee_share_market_purchases_oku
- 0.034958904
- assumed_OCI_oku
- 0
- assumed_capex_cash_oku
- 12.054794521
- assumed_depreciation_oku
- 3.315068493
- assumed_indexation_oku
- 0.560547945
- assumed_deferred_tax_noncash_oku
- 0.693150685
- assumed_working_capital_cash_deduction_oku
- 0.120547945
- assumed_cfo_oku
- 7.971232877
- estimated_as_of_parent_equity_oku
- 31.114445052
- estimated_as_of_regulatory_style_net_debt_oku
- 98.896678235
- estimated_as_of_adjusted_rcv_oku
- 173.242046575
- estimated_as_of_issued_ordinary_shares
- 742864028
- estimated_as_of_treasury_shares
- 0
- employee_trust_ordinary_shares_as_of
- 未確認
- old_cohort_model_initial_shares
- 742864028
- audit_equity_residual_oku
- 0
- audit_debt_residual_oku
- 0
- warning
FY2027途中の実績ではない。投資CFと資本の整合はモデル仮定内に限る。2026-09-08確定罰金の支払日は不明のため基準日までに現金決済したと仮定。社員信託の正確な基準日保有株数は未確認。
- model_principal_indexation_vs_cash_interest
Each modeled period accounts IFRS finance expense as cash interest + noncash inflation-linked principal indexation, adds noncash finance to CFO, and separately increases debt principal. Forecast nominalized cash cost not directly pegged to Ofwat CPIH-real allowance.
- future_primary_issuance_policy
If regulatory-style debt/RCV ratio exceeds 65%, hypothetical outside funding moves to 62-63% target as set by scenario, issued on November 1 of each anniversary year. Proceeds recognized in company equity and lower net debt, shares issued to non-cohort investors; zero cash payment by old cohort.
評価の前提と確認
- quoted_P_E_not_used
- はい
- quoted_P_B_not_used
- はい
- RCV_minus_debt_not_equated_to_equity_share_value
- はい
- terminal_method
Discount future share-cohort dividends and proportional employee-trust tender proceeds; whole-company terminal FCFE derived from post-SBC sustainable PAT, retention for economic growth, uncovered maintenance capex, k and g; multiply by original cohort surviving shares / future ordinary issued; discount terminal at exact anniversary day count.
- terminal_valuation_equations
内容を開く
- 1
PAT_t = gross_regulatory_revenue - ODI - cash_opex - IRE - depreciation - SBC - environmental_fines - (cash_interest+noncash_indexation) - JVloss - IFRS_tax
- 2
FCFE_sustainable = max(0, PAT_normalized*(1 - g/normalized_economic_equity_ROE) - max(0, maintenance_capex - depreciation - maintenance_funding_recovery))
- 3
V_whole_2036_11_06 = FCFE_sustainable*(1+g)/(k-g)
- 4
V_old_2036_11_06 = V_whole_2036_11_06 * (remaining_original_cohort_shares / issued_ordinary_shares)
- 5
PV_old = sum(event.amount/(1+k)^((date-2026-11-06)/365.25)) + V_old/(1+k)^((2036-11-06 - 2026-11-06)/365.25)
- 6
IRR = root PV_old(IRR) - initial_cohort_purchase_cost_oku = 0
- no_cash_added_for_non_cash_sbc
- はい
- historical_aug_2026_final_not_in_future_receipts
- はい
- all_5_scenarios_use_same_nominal_k
- 0.085
- valuation_horizon_days
- 3653
- year_count
actual days / 365.25; 2036-11-06 corresponds to 3653/365.25 years, not 10 exactly under convention
- reinvestment_and_maintenance_policy
Terminal profit is AFTER routine operating costs, depreciation, SBC and financing. Deduct additional maintenance cash capex not supported by depreciation or explicit maintenance recovery separately; retain equity for terminal growth to avoid assuming growth without funds.
- price_sensitivity_base_case
内容を開く
- 1
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 7.50%
- g
- 0.02
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 102.356585657
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 13.778643439
- 2
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 7.50%
- g
- 0.025
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 106.532515484
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 14.340782629
- 3
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 7.50%
- g
- 0.03
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 111.602777665
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 15.023311597
- 4
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 8.50%
- g
- 0.02
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 85.149822611
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 11.462369882
- 5
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 8.50%
- g
- 0.025
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 87.514681672
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 11.780713344
- 6
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 8.50%
- g
- 0.03
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 90.284416874
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 12.153558857
- 7
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 9.50%
- g
- 0.02
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 72.680717698
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 9.783852086
- 8
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 9.50%
- g
- 0.025
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 74.067074135
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 9.970475261
- 9
内容を開く
- 資本コスト
- 9.50%
- g
- 0.03
- old_holder_PV_oku
- 75.647341111
- per_initial_share_gbp
- 10.183201536
- limitations
内容を開く
- 1
annual trust share movements not disclosed as of 2026-11-06
- 2
severe scenario could trigger dividends restrictions not contractually modeled
- 3
no access to full audited FY26 annual report pages for reconciliation beyond preliminary report
- 4
10-year regulatory and capital expenditures highly forecast-dependent
- 5
not a guarantee of Ofwat reopeners or permitted shareholder distributions
資本コストの前提
- 資本コスト
- 8.50%
- basis
nominal GBP shareholder equity hurdle, fixed across five scenarios; Ofwat CPIH-real WACC 4.03% is a regulated asset allowance, not equity discount rate
- k_policy
Based on 5.1% CPIH-real regulatory allowed CoE compounded with 3.0% CPIH => 8.253%, plus approximate 0.25pp company funding / environment / governance buffer rounded to 8.5%. Neither a quoted market PER nor implied PBR.
- allowed_regulated_cost_of_equity_CPIH_real
- 0.051
- regulated_appointee_allowed_WACC_CPIH_real
- 0.0403
- notional_gearing_ofwat
- 0.55
- inflation_for_k_bridge
- 0.03
- cpi_nominalized_roe_reference
- 0.08253
- additional_company_specific_risk_premium
- 0.00247
事業別データ
事業別の内訳と、収録されている年度別データを確認できます。
10年のシナリオ
シナリオごとの確率、期間内の株主還元・追加負担、終価です。金額は億GBP。株主の範囲や受取時点は各分析の前提を確認してください。
| シナリオ | 確率 | 株主還元・追加負担 | 終価 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非常に強気 | 10.0% | 49.85 | 331.05 |
| 強気 | 20.0% | 48.94 | 223.68 |
| 標準 | 40.0% | 47.81 | 125.83 |
| 弱気 | 20.0% | 24.12 | 0.00 |
| 深刻な下方 | 10.0% | 2.27 | 0.00 |
単位の説明
- monetary_company_and_cohort
億GBP（100 million GBP）
- ordinary_share_price
GBP/share
- stock_exchange_price
GBX (pence); price_gbp=price_gbx/100
- 株数
number of ordinary shares
- probability_and_rates
fraction, 0.085=8.5%
- cashflow_time
actual_days_since_2026-11-06/365.25
分析基準とデータ
- 価格・単価
- 15.43
- 株価基準日
2026-11-06
- 株数
- 742864028
- 株価の出所
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/en/quote/equity/UU~/united-utilities-group-plc
- 株数の出所
https://www.unitedutilities.com/globalassets/z_corporate-site/financial-news-2026/orchid---notification-of-admission-of-further-securities-to-trading-prm-1.6.4r593923535.2.pdf
- detail
内容を開く
- 価格・単価
内容を開く
- price_gbp
- 15.43
- price_gbx
- 1543
- 株価基準日
2026-11-06
- time
16:35 GMT London closing auction
- source_id
lse_close
- 状態
confirmed_close
- 株数
内容を開く
- ordinary_issued
- 742864028
- ordinary_issued_asof_source
2026-05-05; re-verified AGM 2026-07-17
- company_treasury_shares_last_confirmed
- 0
- treasury_confirmed_asof_date
2026-05-05
- employee_trust_shares_held_on_2026-11-06
- 未確認
- employee_trust_share_balance_known
- いいえ
- estimated_effective_ordinary_shares_for_valuation
- 742864028
- valuation_denominator_status
dated_proxy; not proven exact as of 2026-11-06; sensitivity to EBT holding and later issue exists
- non_economic_deferred_shares_excluded
- 273956180
- pre_issue_ordinary_shares
- 681888418
- added_ordinary_shares_2026_05_05
- 60975610
- sbc_creates_new_issued_shares_in_base_model
- いいえ
- price_times_effective_shares_oku
- 114.62391952
- issuer_equity_offering_net_proceeds_oku
- 7.88
- source_id
placing
- 時価総額（億）
- 114.62391952
- market_cap_price_times_share_count_source
direct calculation, not LSE displayed market cap
- last_verified_ifrs_financial_reporting_date
2026-03-31
- balance_sheet_2026_11_06_status
estimated proxy from audited FY26 + known May placement + August dividend + unreported bridge profits/cash movements
- fy26_reported_ifrs
内容を開く
- fiscal_year_end
2026-03-31
- 売上高
- 26.163
- cash_operating_expense_including_sbc_oku
- 9.783
- infrastructure_renewal_expense_oku
- 0.381
- depreciation_and_amortization_oku
- 5.005
- 営業利益（億）
- 10.994
- net_finance_expense_oku
- 3.158
- equity_accounted_jv_loss_oku
- 0.046
- profit_before_tax_oku
- 7.79
- tax_expense_oku
- 1.922
- attributable_profit_oku
- 5.868
- 親会社持分（億）
- 22.414
- total_equity_oku
- 22.414
- noncontrolling_interest_oku
- 0
- cash_and_equivalents_oku
- 17.943
- current_borrowings_oku
- 1.649
- non_current_borrowings_oku
- 113.257
- gross_borrowings_oku
- 114.906
- regulatory_net_debt_oku
- 99.43
- ifrs_net_debt_reported_oku
- 96.58
- adjusted_rcv_oku
- 165.27
- capital_investment_regulatory_oku
- 15.251
- ppe_cash_purchases_oku
- 14.921
- reported_cfo_oku
- 13.819
- equity_settled_sbc_charge_oku
- 0.045
- employee_share_purchases_for_options_oku
- 0.058
- paid_dividends_oku
- 3.576
- dividends_per_share_pence
- 53.66
- interim_paid_pence
- 17.88
- final_paid_pence
- 35.78
- historical_revenue_by_service_oku
内容を開く
- wholesale_clean_water
- 10.739
- wholesale_wastewater
- 13.626
- household_retail
- 1.36
- other
- 0.438
- asof_2026_11_06_estimates
内容を開く
- ordinary_parent_equity_oku
- 31.114445052
- net_debt_regulatory_style_oku
- 98.896678235
- adjusted_rcv_oku
- 173.242046575
- net_debt_over_rcv
- 0.570858404
- 状態
model_proxy_not_disclosed_balance_sheet; Sep 2026 court fine assumed recognized and cash-paid
- bridge_from_fy2026_year_end
内容を開く
- period
2026-04-01 to 2026-11-06
- days
- 220
- 状態
推計・代理値。2026年9月末中間決算は11月12日発表予定のため2026-11-06時点で利用不可
- from_2026_03_31
内容を開く
- 親会社持分（億）
- 22.414
- regulatory_net_debt_oku
- 99.43
- adjusted_rcv_oku
- 165.27
- ordinary_shares
- 681888418
- verified_event_2026_05_05
内容を開く
- new_ordinary_shares
- 60975610
- price_gbp
- 13.12
- gross_proceeds_oku
- 8
- net_proceeds_oku
- 7.88
- post_issue_ordinary_shares
- 742864028
- company_treasury_shares
- 0
- last_verified_count_date
2026-07-17
- verified_final_dividend_paid_2026_08_03
内容を開く
- cash_outflow_oku
- 2.657967492
- per_share_gbp
- 0.3578
- ex_date
2026-06-25
- from_march_equity_dividend_liability
2026-03-31未認識。会社決算注記9に従い承認後に控除
- assumed_profit_before_september_court_fine_oku
- 3.495890411
- recognized_september_2026_court_fine_assumed_paid_oku
- 0.00964225
- assumed_profit_after_court_fine_oku
- 3.486248161
- court_fine_cash_settlement_unverified
- はい
- assumed_equity_sbc_credit_oku
- 0.027123288
- assumed_employee_share_market_purchases_oku
- 0.034958904
- assumed_OCI_oku
- 0
- assumed_capex_cash_oku
- 12.054794521
- assumed_depreciation_oku
- 3.315068493
- assumed_indexation_oku
- 0.560547945
- assumed_deferred_tax_noncash_oku
- 0.693150685
- assumed_working_capital_cash_deduction_oku
- 0.120547945
- assumed_cfo_oku
- 7.971232877
- estimated_as_of_parent_equity_oku
- 31.114445052
- estimated_as_of_regulatory_style_net_debt_oku
- 98.896678235
- estimated_as_of_adjusted_rcv_oku
- 173.242046575
- estimated_as_of_issued_ordinary_shares
- 742864028
- estimated_as_of_treasury_shares
- 0
- employee_trust_ordinary_shares_as_of
- 未確認
- old_cohort_model_initial_shares
- 742864028
- audit_equity_residual_oku
- 0
- audit_debt_residual_oku
- 0
- warning
FY2027途中の実績ではない。投資CFと資本の整合はモデル仮定内に限る。2026-09-08確定罰金の支払日は不明のため基準日までに現金決済したと仮定。社員信託の正確な基準日保有株数は未確認。
- share_count_sensitivity
内容を開く
- employee_trust_held_shares_unverified
- 未確認
- illustrative_unverified_employee_trust_shares
- 1000000
- illustrative_outstanding_if_1m_treasury_equivalent_were_excluded
- 741864028
- market_cap_difference_oku_for_1m_share_denominator_change
- 0.1543
- 注記
EBTを会社自己株と同じ会計・株式市場フリーフロート控除扱いにできるかは信託保有時点・連結構成に依存。1m株は事実ではなく感応度。
追加データ・検証記録
- validation
内容を開く
- シナリオ数
- 5
- anniversary_rows_total
- 50
- calendar_partial_plus_full_views_total
- 55
- scenario_probability_sum
- 1
- max_abs_row_audit_residual
- 0
- sum_all_scenario_old_cash_equals_events
- はい
- all_50_periods_reconcile
- はい
- all_timed_events_0_to_horizon
- はい
- expected_cf_events_payment_sum_minus_expected_payout_oku
- 0
- expected_pv_minus_direct_probability_weighted_scenario_PV_oku
- 1.0E-9
- expected_irr_price_residual_oku
- -0
- horizon_year_365_25
- 10.001368925
- horizon_days
- 3653
- all_scenario_y10_end_same
- はい
- scenario_payout_excludes_primary_issuance_and_noncash_SBC
- はい
- historical_2026_08_03_dividend_excluded_from_forward_CF
- はい
分析に使用した資料
- www.londonstockexchange.com 2026-11-06
- www.unitedutilities.com 2026-04-30
- www.unitedutilities.com 2026-06-24
- www.unitedutilities.com history up to 2026-08-03
- unitedutilities.annualreport2026.com 2026-06-24
- www.investegate.co.uk 2026-04-30 and admission 2026-05-05
- www.investegate.eu 2026-07-17
- www.unitedutilities.com 2026-09-25
- www.ofwat.gov.uk 2024-12
- www.ofwat.gov.uk 2025-03-20 edition
- www.gov.uk 2026-09-08
- www.unitedutilities.com 2026-03 revised calendar
- find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk 2026-07-06